Democrats are still running for president in 2020, not 2016. Don't talk about 2016!
What's Changed Since the Last OP?
Basically nothing! We had a second debate and no one really changed their minds. Harris' first debate bounce has faded. The only real movement is Warren's tortoise campaign slowly grinding on and gaining on people.
Is still Joe Biden
. We don't like him very much, but that's what's going on. Joe is strong with moderates, old people, and black people. He's weak with liberals and the youth vote. He keeps saying stuff that's wrong. Today's edition: misidentifying the decade that King and RFK were assassinated in, saying Warren's criminal justice plan sounds like his 1994 crime bill when Warren explicitly wants to repeal the 1994 crime bill.
Campaign's reason Joe Biden should be president: Because he was Barack Obama's Vice President and y'all love Obama right?
Second Place FIGHT
Are the two candidates with significant backing in D&D: Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders.
is narrowly ahead of Sanders in the average right now so we'll talk about her first. Warren has a whole bunch of plans. Like, lots of them. They're very detailed and all interlocking. Warren is strongest with white educated voters. Especially non-religious ones. It should not be a surprise that she is popular with D&D. Her support is fairly uniform across age groups, but she is not getting much black support at all yet. She also struggles with moderates.
Campaign's reason Elizabeth Warren should be president: Because Washington has been bought off to work for the rich and powerful, and she'll fight to make it work for everybody. Fight being the key word, in their formulation.
is running a similar, but somewhat more intersectional campaign to the one he ran in the year that must not be named. After a first debate the campaign wasn't happy with, they have re-centered the campaign on his signature proposal: Medicare For All. Bernie dominates with young voters, only Warren is even vaguely close. Older voters are not fans of his.
Campaign's reason Bernie Sanders should be president: Because he is the leader of a movement that will force Washington to change its ways.
Third tier: They've Got a Chance, but Weak Poll Numbers at the Moment
This is now a group of I'm going to say four.
has faded back into this group after a brief foray into the top tier after the first debate. She's usually pretty high on the "second choice" metric, but isn't a lot of people's first choice. Also, personally, I feel like she's not running a very good campaign. It's cautious and feels poll/consultant tested more than anything genuine about the candidate.
Campaign's reason Kamala Harris should be president: Because she'd do well on a debate stage opposite Donald Trump? That's the best I can do. It's her core struggle right now, as a number of us have said before.
has a strong fundraising base of millionaires, so he's got that going for him. It hasn't translated into much success in polls, though he does do a little better in the early states, especially Iowa (midwesterners like midwesterners, a time honored truth). He has almost literally no support from people of color. Any color. But especially black voters. And you cannot win a Democratic primary without black voters.
Campaign's reason Pete Buttigieg should be president: Because old people have fucked everything up so we should try a new generation.
feels like he should be a good candidate on paper. Young, charismatic, liberal on most issues. But he's struggled to make headway, possibly because of his previous statements frustrated with Obama 2012 attacking private equity? It hasn't come across, but he's a lower tier candidate who it seems like could catch fire.
Campaigns reason Cory Booker should be president: Because he was supposed to be Obama before Obama, dammit!
took a lengthy break from the campaign trail following the El Paso shooting. During that break, he re-discovered what made him a Democratic darling in 2018. He's really, really good at speaking off the cuff with moral clarity. "Members of the press: what the fuck?" to quote one example. His campaign has struggled to build on early strong fundraising and is just kind of sitting there, but another candidate you could see catch fire.
Fourth tier: I guess they've qualified for the next debate too
These candidates aren't winning the nomination, but they have 130k donors and 2% in four qualifying polls, so they get to be on stage for the next debate (9/12 and maybe 9/13 on ABC).
could be VP on the right ticket, I guess. Minnesotans really like her and she'd probably be an asset in the upper Midwest.
is a single issue candidate (UBI) with a ton of fans on 4Chan and that creeps me the fuck out. Go away.
just qualified for the debate today. I like him a lot, but not enough other Democrats do. He's another person who might be an attractive VP option, and is in fact my preferred VP.
Fifth tier: Not qualified for the debate, but might get there
is a billionaire trying to buy his way in instead of using that money on useful things like funding state legislative candidates.
Has donors, has 3 qualifying polls
is a fraud but talks a lot about being anti-war so has some support.
Has donors, has 1 qualifying poll
Sixth tier: Other people
Jay Inslee is running a climate campaign and trying to force that issue to the forefront everywhere possible.
should be running for Senate in Montana instead of this nonsense.
I think I'm missing one or two, but honestly who cares.
We also have a climate change town hall on CNN on September 4th that is NOT a debate but rather consecutive appearances by the candidates. Everybody through Castro I think will get invited to that. I'm not entirely sure about Castro, but the other nine for sure.
Herbert Hoover got 40% of the vote in 1932. Friendly reminder.