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The [Coronavirus] Pandemic Thread - SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19
Bogart
Streetwise HerculesRegistered User, Moderator Mod Emeritus
Streetwise HerculesRegistered User, Moderator Mod Emeritus
WHAT:
The virus is officially designated SARS-CoV-2, formerly temporarily called and the disease it causes COVID-19. Since these are clunky names introduced after the outbreak was already widespread, the names haven't stuck all that well in common parlance. The virus is alternately called "novel coronavirus," "Wuhan coronavirus" (especially in Taiwan), and often just "the coronavirus" (also some racist things I will not mention). I personally have been calling it SARS2 but no one else has, so I'm not going to be picky about names here (unless you're going to be racist about it). We should know what we're talking about.
Coronaviruses are a class of viruses that affect mammals and birds, usually causing respiratory tract infections but occasionally also infecting the digestive tract. Four strains already circulate worldwide causing 15-30% of all common colds. Two other strains, SARS and MERS, were small outbreaks of novel coronaviruses with very high death rates but without being as contagious so they could be eliminated. This newest virus seems to be closely related to SARS, though not as deadly, but far more contagious.
Symptoms of COVID-19 include fever, coughing, fatigue, and others that typically resemble to be cold or flu. The incubation period (the time between infection and the onset of symptoms) typically ranges from a day to a couple weeks. People become contagious before symptoms appear, and some people never develop symptoms. In 15-20% of symptomatic cases, however, the disease can progress from what appears to be a cold into pneumonia which can be fatal. Death rates are highest among the elderly (over 14% of those age 80 and above) and apparently nonexistent to children under 10.
Tips for protecting yourself against this coronavirus are listed below.
WHERE: Basically everywhere, even if not officially yet.
The pandemic started in Wuhan (population over 11 million), capital of Hubei province in China. Many of the earliest cases were linked specifically to Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market in Wuhan, which despite its name was also known for selling bushmeat (wild exotic animals, usually unregulated). From Wuhan it spread rapidly through China, aided by the travel of Chinese New Year, and then via air travel around the world.
If your country claims not to have it, it's probably because they aren't testing enough for it.
WHEN: Through now, starting likely in November as the first case was retroactively noticed on the 1st of December, 2019. It might not ever end if this strain becomes the fifth worldwide circulating coronavirus strain, which it is on its way of doing.
WHO: World Health Organization, currently headed by Tedros Adhanom. They are in charge of declaring a pandemic. Despite this obviously being a pandemic with spread and deaths across the world on multiple continents, it's only called a "public health emergency of international concern."
The outbreak was first noticed by a group of doctors in Wuhan, who noted the disease's resemblance to SARS. A group of 8 or 10 were together in a WeChat private group discussing their findings, worried that this deadly new coronavirus might be the return of SARS. They were threatened by local police and officials who sought to suppress negative news, and this coverup cost the world valuable time that likely lead to the virus reaching a point where it could not be contained.
The face of these whistleblower doctors became Dr. Li Wenliang, a 33 year old ophthalmologist.
Dr. Li still continued to treat patients despite the admonishment and coverup, attempting to warn others before the official warnings finally came out, but soon after contracted COVID-19 and died. It is widely rumored that medical aid was withheld to ensure his death and silence him.
WHY: This coronavirus, like its cousin SARS before it, appears to be a zoonotic virus, which jumped over from an animal resevoir to start infecting humans. Most human diseases started this way, jumping over from an animal host to us, from us being in close contact with animals due to domestication or habitat loss for those animals forcing them in closer contact with us.
Specifically, both SARS and SARS2 seem to be derived from bat coronaviruses. Bats, because they fly, have a higher core body temperature than other mammals. Viruses therefore must be tougher in order to survive in bats, since fever is a reaction to help fight off diseases and effectively to any non-bat-infecting disease, bats are always in a fever state. Therefore, diseases that get transferred from bats tend to be nastier than other zoonotic diseases. Other examples for instance include the hemorrhagic fevers Nipah and Ebola.
HOW to protect myself:
#1: Hygiene - Wash your hands frequently using proper technique (see below), don't touch your face, cough and sneeze into your sleeve (elbows work), and wear a mask if available when you are sick to prevent further spread.
Proper handwashing technique:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IisgnbMfKvI
Why is this long process necessary?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1RisoBy8lX0
#2: Social distancing - stay away from crowds, work from home if at all possible, stay home when sick, maintain distance between yourself and others (especially those showing coughing and sneezing)
#3: If you haven't already, get a flu shot and make sure your other immunizations are up to date. It won't help directly with preventing this coronavirus, but comorbidities (including co-infections) make it much nastier. You don't want this virus AND the flu at the same time.
#4: Get enough sleep and stay hydrated. Sleep deprivation makes symptoms worse and causes diseases to be harder in most other cases, and I doubt SARS2 is any different. Being dehydrated can exasperate symptoms, and having any sort of cold or flu means water leaving the body faster (through coughed droplets, phlegm, runny noses and the like), so make sure there's enough to start with and keep replacing it. You'll recover better and faster, no matter what the illness.
#5: Have politicians who are being dumbasses (spreading conspiracy theories and false information, suggesting idiotic measures, firing your country's pandemic response team, etc.) and have an upcoming election? Vote the bums out.
Finally, don't eat bats, y'all. I don't care if it's a bit too late for this one. Living bats have important roles in their ecosystems, eating insects, pollinating flowers, and spreading fruit seeds. Dead bats are all sorts of full of diseases as mentioned earlier. You know what would make this pandemic worse? Also getting a novel hemorrhagic fever outbreak at the same time. Just leave the little winged fuzzballs alone.
Also:
DO NOT consider this OP to be all-inclusive and all the information you need. Check the links below and keep up with the news for updates, the latest findings, and warnings.
Useful links (with thanks again from @boogedyboo):
General Info
US CDC on nCov 2019
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nCoV/summary.html
WHO on nCOV 2019
https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019
European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control
https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/novel-coronavirus-china
Live updates from Netherlands-based news aggregator BNO News:
https://twitter.com/BNODesk
Good video summary from the Guardian
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aerq4byr7ps
Wikipedia pages, updated frequently:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019–20_coronavirus_outbreak
Links to separate pages by country and territory:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019–20_coronavirus_outbreak_by_country_and_territory
Situation Reports
WHO Daily Sit-reps
https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports/
US CDC Case count
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-in-us.html
Visualization
Updated mapping visualization by John Hopkins University
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
[Up to date, usually marking by country but also state and Chinese province]
Live updates, number tracking (no map)
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Real Time Tracking of cases in China (in Chinese)
http://3g.dxy.cn/newh5/view/pneumonia
BNO News Timeline and tracker:
https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/
[Note: the map marks individual cities but this has been falling behind as cases accelerate.]
Academic
Completed sequence of viral genome
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/nuccore/MN908947
TWiV 584: Year of the coronavirus - Discussion panel of virologists about the outbreak.
http://www.microbe.tv/twiv/twiv-584/
Twitter thread keeping track of academic papers both published and preprint (biorxiv.org) on the virus.
Maintained by Dr Cevik of University of St Andrews
Credit to Mayabird for the OP.
The virus is officially designated SARS-CoV-2, formerly temporarily called and the disease it causes COVID-19. Since these are clunky names introduced after the outbreak was already widespread, the names haven't stuck all that well in common parlance. The virus is alternately called "novel coronavirus," "Wuhan coronavirus" (especially in Taiwan), and often just "the coronavirus" (also some racist things I will not mention). I personally have been calling it SARS2 but no one else has, so I'm not going to be picky about names here (unless you're going to be racist about it). We should know what we're talking about.
Coronaviruses are a class of viruses that affect mammals and birds, usually causing respiratory tract infections but occasionally also infecting the digestive tract. Four strains already circulate worldwide causing 15-30% of all common colds. Two other strains, SARS and MERS, were small outbreaks of novel coronaviruses with very high death rates but without being as contagious so they could be eliminated. This newest virus seems to be closely related to SARS, though not as deadly, but far more contagious.
Symptoms of COVID-19 include fever, coughing, fatigue, and others that typically resemble to be cold or flu. The incubation period (the time between infection and the onset of symptoms) typically ranges from a day to a couple weeks. People become contagious before symptoms appear, and some people never develop symptoms. In 15-20% of symptomatic cases, however, the disease can progress from what appears to be a cold into pneumonia which can be fatal. Death rates are highest among the elderly (over 14% of those age 80 and above) and apparently nonexistent to children under 10.
Tips for protecting yourself against this coronavirus are listed below.
WHERE: Basically everywhere, even if not officially yet.
The pandemic started in Wuhan (population over 11 million), capital of Hubei province in China. Many of the earliest cases were linked specifically to Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market in Wuhan, which despite its name was also known for selling bushmeat (wild exotic animals, usually unregulated). From Wuhan it spread rapidly through China, aided by the travel of Chinese New Year, and then via air travel around the world.
If your country claims not to have it, it's probably because they aren't testing enough for it.
WHEN: Through now, starting likely in November as the first case was retroactively noticed on the 1st of December, 2019. It might not ever end if this strain becomes the fifth worldwide circulating coronavirus strain, which it is on its way of doing.
WHO: World Health Organization, currently headed by Tedros Adhanom. They are in charge of declaring a pandemic. Despite this obviously being a pandemic with spread and deaths across the world on multiple continents, it's only called a "public health emergency of international concern."
The outbreak was first noticed by a group of doctors in Wuhan, who noted the disease's resemblance to SARS. A group of 8 or 10 were together in a WeChat private group discussing their findings, worried that this deadly new coronavirus might be the return of SARS. They were threatened by local police and officials who sought to suppress negative news, and this coverup cost the world valuable time that likely lead to the virus reaching a point where it could not be contained.
The face of these whistleblower doctors became Dr. Li Wenliang, a 33 year old ophthalmologist.
Dr. Li still continued to treat patients despite the admonishment and coverup, attempting to warn others before the official warnings finally came out, but soon after contracted COVID-19 and died. It is widely rumored that medical aid was withheld to ensure his death and silence him.
WHY: This coronavirus, like its cousin SARS before it, appears to be a zoonotic virus, which jumped over from an animal resevoir to start infecting humans. Most human diseases started this way, jumping over from an animal host to us, from us being in close contact with animals due to domestication or habitat loss for those animals forcing them in closer contact with us.
Specifically, both SARS and SARS2 seem to be derived from bat coronaviruses. Bats, because they fly, have a higher core body temperature than other mammals. Viruses therefore must be tougher in order to survive in bats, since fever is a reaction to help fight off diseases and effectively to any non-bat-infecting disease, bats are always in a fever state. Therefore, diseases that get transferred from bats tend to be nastier than other zoonotic diseases. Other examples for instance include the hemorrhagic fevers Nipah and Ebola.
HOW to protect myself:
#1: Hygiene - Wash your hands frequently using proper technique (see below), don't touch your face, cough and sneeze into your sleeve (elbows work), and wear a mask if available when you are sick to prevent further spread.
Proper handwashing technique:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IisgnbMfKvIWhy is this long process necessary?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1RisoBy8lX0#2: Social distancing - stay away from crowds, work from home if at all possible, stay home when sick, maintain distance between yourself and others (especially those showing coughing and sneezing)
#3: If you haven't already, get a flu shot and make sure your other immunizations are up to date. It won't help directly with preventing this coronavirus, but comorbidities (including co-infections) make it much nastier. You don't want this virus AND the flu at the same time.
#4: Get enough sleep and stay hydrated. Sleep deprivation makes symptoms worse and causes diseases to be harder in most other cases, and I doubt SARS2 is any different. Being dehydrated can exasperate symptoms, and having any sort of cold or flu means water leaving the body faster (through coughed droplets, phlegm, runny noses and the like), so make sure there's enough to start with and keep replacing it. You'll recover better and faster, no matter what the illness.
#5: Have politicians who are being dumbasses (spreading conspiracy theories and false information, suggesting idiotic measures, firing your country's pandemic response team, etc.) and have an upcoming election? Vote the bums out.
Finally, don't eat bats, y'all. I don't care if it's a bit too late for this one. Living bats have important roles in their ecosystems, eating insects, pollinating flowers, and spreading fruit seeds. Dead bats are all sorts of full of diseases as mentioned earlier. You know what would make this pandemic worse? Also getting a novel hemorrhagic fever outbreak at the same time. Just leave the little winged fuzzballs alone.
Also:
DO NOT consider this OP to be all-inclusive and all the information you need. Check the links below and keep up with the news for updates, the latest findings, and warnings.
Useful links (with thanks again from @boogedyboo):
General Info
US CDC on nCov 2019
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nCoV/summary.html
WHO on nCOV 2019
https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019
European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control
https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/novel-coronavirus-china
Live updates from Netherlands-based news aggregator BNO News:
https://twitter.com/BNODesk
Good video summary from the Guardian
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aerq4byr7psWikipedia pages, updated frequently:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019–20_coronavirus_outbreak
Links to separate pages by country and territory:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019–20_coronavirus_outbreak_by_country_and_territory
Situation Reports
WHO Daily Sit-reps
https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports/
US CDC Case count
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-in-us.html
Visualization
Updated mapping visualization by John Hopkins University
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
[Up to date, usually marking by country but also state and Chinese province]
Live updates, number tracking (no map)
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Real Time Tracking of cases in China (in Chinese)
http://3g.dxy.cn/newh5/view/pneumonia
BNO News Timeline and tracker:
https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/
[Note: the map marks individual cities but this has been falling behind as cases accelerate.]
Academic
Completed sequence of viral genome
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/nuccore/MN908947
TWiV 584: Year of the coronavirus - Discussion panel of virologists about the outbreak.
http://www.microbe.tv/twiv/twiv-584/
Twitter thread keeping track of academic papers both published and preprint (biorxiv.org) on the virus.
Maintained by Dr Cevik of University of St Andrews
Credit to Mayabird for the OP.
Bogart on
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This discussion has been closed.
Posts
Anyway, my partner (who has to use a lot of public transit options and needs relatively frequent doctor's visits) has been feeling a little under the weather most of the afternoon, and may have been running a fever tonight just before bed. I'm doing my best to put on a confident face about it with her ("Nah, you almost certainly don't have it. And anyway even if you do, you're young and feisty, so you'll definitely be fine.").
But tonight I was standing in Kroger grabbing grocery necessities in case she wakes up with a fever tomorrow and we both have to quarantine for a bit to make sure it's not The Thing. Doing my best not to touch anything that wasn't leaving the store with me (I picked something up, changed my mind about it, and then realized that I'd already touched it, so I bought it anyway). Doing my best not to think about all the outbreak fiction I've ever consumed -- The Stand, etc.
And mostly just thinking about how in a sane world, I would feel confident that the situation was being addressed by competent experts at every level, but instead I'm worrying about how long I'll be allowed to work from home and how long it will take before the powers that be in this country stop trying to treat the virus as a hoax and whether it's better to get it early when there might still be hospital beds available if you need them, or get it later when they might have figured out a more effective way to treat it.
I'm not panicking, and I don't think anyone should. As a species, we're gonna get through this, and the vast majority of us will get through it as individuals too. But this stage of the process sucks from every angle, and rationally I know it's probably going to get worse before it gets better -- but, rationally, I also know that it will get better.
No confirmed cases in the State as of yet.
That seems like a bit of risky proposition before even factoring in anything to do with COVID-19.
A place to stay helps a lot but (without knowing the details of your finances) if the primary earner doesn't have a job lined up it kinda strikes me as not a great idea? Not to say it's a terrible idea or anything but if your lifestyle means you both need to have jobs then I'm thinking her having at the very least some solid job prospects lined up would be a much better situation to move forward with.
I dunno, I might just be overly-cautious because I have a friend who moved to AZ to work for the city of Phoenix and then got screwed because her college had a fire and lost all records before like 1996 (she graduated in the early 80s). Since she didn't have her diploma anymore she ended up stranded in AZ for awhile with no job because while the city had told her she had a job and they'd pay the moving expenses? Once she got there the city said because they couldn't verify her degree: "Lawl sorry, our bad, but now kindly fuck off"
I'd be trying to hunker down at whatever job you got right now with what the markets are doing.
But I had the misfortune of starting my career during the Recession, and I'm trying to get a new job after several years focusing on activism right as another one seems like it's popping off; so I've lived through a very worst case scenario and am probably a little biased.
I’m gonna get it soon if they don’t
maybe i'm streaming terrible dj right now if i am its here
Look at Italy. Lombardy has a case fatality rate of 8.2% now, because they have no more capacity for treatment.
Edit. If people can't see that.. Either they need to change their minds, or they will suffer the consequences
Americans are also really bad at statistics. Even if there is an absurd fatality rate like almost 10% there will still be a lot of people who won't personally know anyone who had it bad. And as we know, if something doesn't directly affect conservative voters, they don't give a shit.
How many won't get that treatment?
This thing is really nasty. It's just slow enough and "harmless" enough to spread everywhere and be ignored until it's too late.
Americans are also fighting the headwinds of one political party that is denying it and an opposition party that is silent on it. Every decision maker who understands has to fight headwinds of elected officials, board members, and donors who are becoming radicalized around the idea that this is a made up issue - a minor cold sensationalized by the media.
Truthfully, I think we're too late for this to be Y2K. This virus has insane contagiousness and a high incubation period. If we somehow arrested all transmission within the next week, which is a truly absurd situation that is literally impossibly rosy, we will still probably be rationing care and refusing to treat people over 65 in some regions by the end of March. The dam has broken.
Mum is going to be 66 this year. Three time cancer survivor. Congestive heart failure and lung damage from one of the radiation therapies she had in the late 70s. She's got a pacemaker.
And I'm putting her in a plane and sending her back to the US on Friday. And if she gets this thing, and it gets bad, will I be able to travel to be at home with her? Will I not?
It's so hard to not spiral.
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That said, I'm about to go into a few weeks of field training where I am completely isolated from the outside world. No phones. No news. No internet. Zero contact.
When we get back I expect a 30 days later scenario. I want to see barren streets and trash blowing around.
60% of Germany will be infected says Angela Merkel. As my country is right next to it and has community spread I conclude that we are facing the same scenario.
In a country of 16m we already have 380 infected and 4 dead.
Additionally the Iranian parliament is shut down, the [uel=https://www.ibtimes.com/european-parliament-speaker-self-isolates-after-italy-visit-2937145]European parliament is holding only truncated sessions with most activities cancelled and the speaker is self-isolating[/url] and the World Trade Organization has cancelled all meetings for the next nine days. The virus doesn't care if you're powerful; we're all just meat to it.
Also is it just me or were the announcement of cases in Michigan delayed until after the primary?
Let's play Mario Kart or something...
I don't think there's much reason that they'd manipulate the results in order to impact the Democratic primary, but Trump has made it obvious that he 'wants the numbers to look good', so there will be shenanigans incoming.
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This is such insane thinking. Like, part of me can at least understand how you might be obsessed with elections and want to look good. That makes sense. It's terrible, but I get it.
But the way to make the numbers look good is to take actions to avoid a case fatality rate approaching 10% because you ran out of hospitals. Keep the number of dead below the many thousands, if you can. The election isn't tomorrow, it's half a year away. You're fucked if you try to make the numbers look good now, vs looking good then.
Also now is a great opportunity, politically. Take strong measures, talk about being a strong man, keeping the people safe. Most everyone will eat that shit up. What an incredibly pathetic, weak response. What an incredibly weak leader. This doesn't look good, this makes him look weak, and I'm surprised he hasn't cottoned on.
I wish we would do something as a country while we still can to prevent everyone from getting this thing, I feel tremendously helpless and scared for myself and my almost 70 y/o parents.
Nah, from a purely political self interest perspective this is basically a no win scenario. Taking full quarantine measures like Italy or South Korea or China are doing would be a fatal blow to reelection. Either it works and people end up resenting it as unnecessary, or it doesn't and now you own failing the crisis.
Trump doesn't think past tomorrow. His efforts to downplay this will look awful in a few months because he is both incredibly short sighted and self-absorbed.
So, now I am on day 2. If I miss tomorrow also I’ll need to get a doctor’s note. I’m rage-laughing at the idea that a visit (to my pcp or urgent care) might cost more than my sick pay compensation so I will still lose money in the exchange 🧠
edit: errr note I’ve no reason to think I’m infected, my symptoms don’t match up very closely. Just describing my situation as someone in America who has to make hard financial decisions about whether I will work when sick, given I handle food and often serve the elderly and other immunocompromised people
Moving it away from Trump, I'm in the UK and my sister is planning a holiday to Spain at the end of the month. I'm a little concerned about it, but she says she's still planning to go unless she's actually barred from doing so. She's not an idiot (she's a pharmacist, so she arguably knows this sort of thing far better than me, a man who reads stuff on the internet), but I can't help feeling that if our situations were reversed, she'd give me her patented 'really? That's really what you're going to do?' looks that get me to reconsider when I'm thinking about doing something risky or irresponsible.
Trump doesn't think past Nov 2020. It's actually all he thinks about until then.
We all know he won't own it though, that's the thing.
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I mean, one of the main issues of the primary and our inability to deal with this pandemic is our lack of universal healthcare and labor rights. One candidate stands for those things, and the other has the GOP champing at the bit to run against him because he appears to mentally declining. It's not the most absurd thing I've heard but it is speculation.
Choose Your Own Chat 1 Choose Your Own Chat 2 Choose Your Own Chat 3
Judging by the response so far, it’s going to get Italy bad before serious action is taken by some of the companies that are holding out on doing the right thing.
e: and even then it’s going to be closing the barn door after the animals have gotten out, the barn has burnt to the ground and the ashes of the structure have washed away by flood waters.
Trump said it isn't a big deal
he will never admit it is a big deal. This is the man who redraw a hurricane map with a sharpie to avoid admitting he heard the wrong weather report. He will Baghdad bob this to the bitter bitter end
In November it will be "sure, hundreds died but it's no flu! Totally overblown!"
The narrative that we just need to "push through this" and infect everyone is already being floated in conservative corners. I fully expect a lot of businesses to try to retain the status quo for as long as possible, while their owners issue orders from their safe rooms and bunkers.