Updates on [SARS2/covid-19] (reboot)

ceresceres When the last moon is cast over the last star of morningAnd the future has past without even a last desperate warningRegistered User, Moderator mod
Elki wrote: »
Given the volume of discussion around this topic, we're gonna be doing things a bit differently until further notice. Instead of one thread, we'll be using two and a half threads.
  • An updates and information thread. News about response efforts, updates on the spread of the virus, new resources to keep track of news, political developments directly related to the virus, etc. No rumors, no twitter randos, do your best to make sure it's verified information before posting to this thread.
  • A general coronavirus discussion thread. How things are happening in your town, how you're doing, how your family is doing, and other things you don't think go into the updates thread this goes in the general thread.
  • The existing chat thread. There are lots of 'fun' or interesting things, posts tangentially related to the disease, cool videos, twitter posts, etc, that aren't news, or really something to discuss. Feel free to post them in the existing chat thread, because it's there for you, even if you don't usually post there. They're not all bad people. It's there, you might as well use it.

This should help us have some readable threads, given the current volume of posts.

I'll be using my move posts powers occasionally, to keep things where they belong, so don't be surprised if that happens.

Edit: Burrack made a thread for lockdown resources, so you might want to look at that as well.

And it seems like all is dying, and would leave the world to mourn
«13456

Posts

  • ceresceres When the last moon is cast over the last star of morning And the future has past without even a last desperate warningRegistered User, Moderator mod
    Here is a link to the last thread in case you want to find out how we got here, or just to catch up to where we are now.

    And it seems like all is dying, and would leave the world to mourn
    Commander ZoomKlytus
  • MayabirdMayabird Pecking at the keyboardRegistered User regular




    Brazil had over 50k new cases (the US in comparison had 30k) and just blew past 1 million official cases. And that is still a major undercount, telling from Brazil's very high positivity ratio and the excess death rate.

    moniker
  • SteevLSteevL What can I do for you? Registered User regular
    The county where I live (Fairfax County, VA), has been on a decline of total number cases for the last few weeks. About a week ago, the text messaging service that sent me daily info on number of infections gave their last daily update. They still keep their COVID-19 website updated, though. Looks like we had 35 confirmed cases yesterday. Compared to a few weeks ago where the daily updates ranged from 200-400, that's pretty good!

    JragghenFencingsax
  • DevoutlyApatheticDevoutlyApathetic Registered User regular
    Mayabird wrote: »




    Brazil had over 50k new cases (the US in comparison had 30k) and just blew past 1 million official cases. And that is still a major undercount, telling from Brazil's very high positivity ratio and the excess death rate.

    Does Brazil have the testing capacity to find 50k new cases or is that including suspected?

    I suppose they could just have a ridiculous positive rate on the tests.

    Still, that seems real bad.

  • Jealous DevaJealous Deva Registered User regular
    Hrm, was just browsing worldometers, looks like yesterday wasn’t a great day for the US as a whole, not only was friday the highest number of new cases since april, but the 7 day average has been trending up for 10 days now, which hasn’t happened since March.

    I guess the real test will be whether we see a corresponding rise in deaths (which have been trending down) in a week or two.

    MorganVCommander ZoomMild Confusion
  • enlightenedbumenlightenedbum Registered User regular
    Mayabird wrote: »




    Brazil had over 50k new cases (the US in comparison had 30k) and just blew past 1 million official cases. And that is still a major undercount, telling from Brazil's very high positivity ratio and the excess death rate.

    Does Brazil have the testing capacity to find 50k new cases or is that including suspected?

    I suppose they could just have a ridiculous positive rate on the tests.

    Still, that seems real bad.

    Their positive rate was 50 percent not that long ago.

    Herbert Hoover got 40% of the vote in 1932. Friendly reminder.
    Warren 2020
    Mayabird
  • AbsalonAbsalon Registered User regular
    What horrifies me about all this is that there is no reason this strain wasn't less or more deadly than it is. Flus can be more or less dangerous.

  • ceresceres When the last moon is cast over the last star of morning And the future has past without even a last desperate warningRegistered User, Moderator mod
    As far as I know every indication I've seen is that mutation rate on this one isn't too quick. I'm just looking at news I've seen though and that's been a lot thinner for quite a while until quite recently because of everything else burning down.

    And it seems like all is dying, and would leave the world to mourn
    JragghenVishNubFencingsaxMayabirdredxZilla360
  • PaladinPaladin Registered User regular
    ceres wrote: »
    As far as I know every indication I've seen is that mutation rate on this one isn't too quick. I'm just looking at news I've seen though and that's been a lot thinner for quite a while until quite recently because of everything else burning down.

    Something to keep an eye on is the decreasing antibody titers in previous infected. For now, just don't assume that people who previously contracted the virus will be immune 2 months from now.

    Marty: The future, it's where you're going?
    Doc: That's right, twenty five years into the future. I've always dreamed on seeing the future, looking beyond my years, seeing the progress of mankind. I'll also be able to see who wins the next twenty-five world series.
    FencingsaxceresTetraNitroCubanezagdrobMan in the MistsNightDragon
  • FencingsaxFencingsax It is difficult to get a man to understand, when his salary depends upon his not understanding GNU Terry PratchettRegistered User regular
    Paladin wrote: »
    ceres wrote: »
    As far as I know every indication I've seen is that mutation rate on this one isn't too quick. I'm just looking at news I've seen though and that's been a lot thinner for quite a while until quite recently because of everything else burning down.

    Something to keep an eye on is the decreasing antibody titers in previous infected. For now, just don't assume that people who previously contracted the virus will be immune 2 months from now.

    Yeah, the 2 long term issues that I was made aware of was rate of mutation, and length of immunity, which I had no idea could be a problem.

    torchlight-sig-80.jpg
  • JragghenJragghen Registered User regular
    Antibodies not sticking around isn't bad, we do that for everything to not cause autoimmune disorders.

    The question is if memory cells retain the ability to make more antibodies

    kimeDoctor DetroitMayabirdredxtynicZilla360Fuzzy Cumulonimbus CloudElvenshaeMild Confusion
  • ceresceres When the last moon is cast over the last star of morning And the future has past without even a last desperate warningRegistered User, Moderator mod
    Paladin wrote: »
    ceres wrote: »
    As far as I know every indication I've seen is that mutation rate on this one isn't too quick. I'm just looking at news I've seen though and that's been a lot thinner for quite a while until quite recently because of everything else burning down.

    Something to keep an eye on is the decreasing antibody titers in previous infected. For now, just don't assume that people who previously contracted the virus will be immune 2 months from now.

    That seems to be referring specifically to asymptomatic patients, and says they shedded virus for longer. It makes a lot of sense to me, but I'm only semi-educated on it. Is there anything around to say if patients with stronger reactions express the antibodies differently?

    And it seems like all is dying, and would leave the world to mourn
    BlindPsychicTetraNitroCubane
  • JedocJedoc Once to start a new life and once just to start a fireRegistered User regular
    edited June 20
    Since we're briefly in the news, one more Oklahoma update.



    Not putting up big numbers compared to some other hotspots, but the last three days have seen over 10% of our entire caseload since the beginning of this mess, and fastest increase per capita in the nation. No specific superspreader events have been identified, just good old fashioned relaxed vigilance in the community.

    Edit:


    Oh. I see.

    Carol Lee is an NBC correspondent, and Dillon Richards is a reporter for an OKC ABC affiliate.

    Jedoc on
    GDdCWMm.jpg
  • PaladinPaladin Registered User regular
    ceres wrote: »
    Paladin wrote: »
    ceres wrote: »
    As far as I know every indication I've seen is that mutation rate on this one isn't too quick. I'm just looking at news I've seen though and that's been a lot thinner for quite a while until quite recently because of everything else burning down.

    Something to keep an eye on is the decreasing antibody titers in previous infected. For now, just don't assume that people who previously contracted the virus will be immune 2 months from now.

    That seems to be referring specifically to asymptomatic patients, and says they shedded virus for longer. It makes a lot of sense to me, but I'm only semi-educated on it. Is there anything around to say if patients with stronger reactions express the antibodies differently?

    According to the letter, which is not a real article, 81% of asymptomatic and 62% of symptomatic people had a reduction in neutralizing antibodies and 40% vs 16% actually became antibody negative. It is unknown at this point what that means.

    Marty: The future, it's where you're going?
    Doc: That's right, twenty five years into the future. I've always dreamed on seeing the future, looking beyond my years, seeing the progress of mankind. I'll also be able to see who wins the next twenty-five world series.
  • ceresceres When the last moon is cast over the last star of morning And the future has past without even a last desperate warningRegistered User, Moderator mod
    Paladin wrote: »
    ceres wrote: »
    Paladin wrote: »
    ceres wrote: »
    As far as I know every indication I've seen is that mutation rate on this one isn't too quick. I'm just looking at news I've seen though and that's been a lot thinner for quite a while until quite recently because of everything else burning down.

    Something to keep an eye on is the decreasing antibody titers in previous infected. For now, just don't assume that people who previously contracted the virus will be immune 2 months from now.

    That seems to be referring specifically to asymptomatic patients, and says they shedded virus for longer. It makes a lot of sense to me, but I'm only semi-educated on it. Is there anything around to say if patients with stronger reactions express the antibodies differently?

    According to the letter, which is not a real article, 81% of asymptomatic and 62% of symptomatic people had a reduction in neutralizing antibodies and 40% vs 16% actually became antibody negative. It is unknown at this point what that means.

    Thanks, I didn't get past the abstract before my son wanted to call his grandmother. That first image is kind of crazy though, yikes, it says they were both asymptomatic.

    And it seems like all is dying, and would leave the world to mourn
  • ZibblsnrtZibblsnrt Registered User regular
    Knowing things for sure is still somewhat down the line of course, and there's almost certainly going to have to be several different vaccines, but a phase III clinical trial chugging along enough that Italy, France, Germany and the Netherlands have already signed a deal for four hundred million doses feels a little optimism-generating right now.

    OrcaCommander ZoomElJeffeGnome-InterruptusShadowfireShadowhopeCalicaBullheadExtreaminatusmonikernever dieZilla360shrykeElvenshae
  • ceresceres When the last moon is cast over the last star of morning And the future has past without even a last desperate warningRegistered User, Moderator mod
    Zibblsnrt wrote: »
    Knowing things for sure is still somewhat down the line of course, and there's almost certainly going to have to be several different vaccines, but a phase III clinical trial chugging along enough that Italy, France, Germany and the Netherlands have already signed a deal for four hundred million doses feels a little optimism-generating right now.

    That makes me very nervous, both for efficacy and people deciding there is no problem because we have a vaccine now and ugh it's hard for me to jump at it and say "yes I will totally take this vaccine that is out in less than 9 months." I recognize I might be in the minority there, but it's hard to say I'm excited without a longer term study.

    And it seems like all is dying, and would leave the world to mourn
    Commander ZoomJragghenkimeMan in the MistsShadowfire38thDoeKlytusNightDragonZilla360
  • RiusRius Registered User regular
    I can't decide if Trump would be more likely to propose buying it immediately or letting other countries test it first

  • ElJeffeElJeffe Moderator, ClubPA mod
    edited June 20
    Por que no los dos?

    He'll try to buy it all up and then sell it to other countries for profit.

    Edit: Whoops, not the discussion thread.

    Mods! They're just like you!

    ElJeffe on
    Maddie: "I named my feet. The left one is flip and the right one is flop. Oh, and also I named my flip-flops."

    I make tweet.
    thatassemblyguySmrtnikceresOrcaCommander ZoomMan in the MistsFencingsaxShadowfireShadowhopeRius38thDoeEmerlmaster999IncenjucarJaysonFourBremenForarLaOsKlytuswebguy20KetBraCalicaLucedesMorganVCantideDevlin_DragonusDark Raven Xragnarok7331BullheadWACriminalSkeithNightslyrmonikerNightDragonnever dieMrVyngaardHacksawKoopahTroopahDrake ChambersAntoshkajimb213Jebus314HefflingZilla360FoolOnTheHillThegreatcowMathew BurrackElvenshaeMild Confusion
  • tbloxhamtbloxham Registered User regular
    ceres wrote: »
    Zibblsnrt wrote: »
    Knowing things for sure is still somewhat down the line of course, and there's almost certainly going to have to be several different vaccines, but a phase III clinical trial chugging along enough that Italy, France, Germany and the Netherlands have already signed a deal for four hundred million doses feels a little optimism-generating right now.

    That makes me very nervous, both for efficacy and people deciding there is no problem because we have a vaccine now and ugh it's hard for me to jump at it and say "yes I will totally take this vaccine that is out in less than 9 months." I recognize I might be in the minority there, but it's hard to say I'm excited without a longer term study.

    This is very good news, and exactly what we should do, but, it doesn’t mean it works. It just means early safety signals are good, patients aren’t seeing immediate adverse events, and so on. It means it might work, so, best to hope for the best and start making it now. All these articles will seem like rushing, but it’s only rushing if they start dosing everyone (rather than just high risk people) before the data comes out for safety and effacacy.

    On the antibody front, that study is weird and on a tiny population. Only 27 people? Much bigger studies have been done which show vast swathes of the population with antibody responses etc. And, as others have said, antibodies are just the easiest part of the immune systems adaptive response to detect. It’s not the only thing the immune system knows how to do.

    "That is cool" - Abraham Lincoln
  • Commander ZoomCommander Zoom Registered User regular
    ElJeffe wrote: »
    Por que no los dos?

    He'll try to buy it all up and then sell it to other countries for profit.

    Same as Kushner did with all the PPE.

    steam_sig.png
    Steam, Warframe: Megajoule
  • lonelyahavalonelyahava Call me Ahava Move to New ZealandRegistered User regular
    5 active cases in NZ at the moment.

    The 2 returning from the UK for a funeral that caused all the drama last week
    1 returning home from Pakistan
    2 returning home from India

    All of the cases are in Isolation (i think the 2 UK girls are back in isolation? I think.) and the other 3 are in isolation and do not require medical intervention at the moment

  • TetraNitroCubaneTetraNitroCubane The Djinnerator At the bottom of a bottleRegistered User regular
    edited June 20
    On the vaccine discussion: Notably phase III clinical trials are typically significantly longer than either phase I or II. So just because they got to phase III already doesn't mean that phase III won't take quite a while. That's not to say that they are or aren't pushing the envelope here - We'll have to see how the study is designed and how it pans out.

    I'll admit I don't know quite how trials work for biologics, particularly vaccines. For small molecules, phase III trials can last anywhere between a couple of months to several years, depending on how long patients will be taking the medication overall.

    TetraNitroCubane on
    VuIBhrs.png
  • tbloxhamtbloxham Registered User regular
    On the vaccine discussion: Notably phase III clinical trials are typically significantly longer than either phase I or II. So just because they got to phase III already doesn't mean that phase III won't take quite a while. That's not to say that they are or aren't pushing the envelope here - We'll have to see how the study is designed and how it pans out.

    I'll admit I don't know quite how trials work for biologics, particularly vaccines. For small molecules, phase III trials can last anywhere between a couple of months to several years, depending on how long patients will be taking the medication overall.

    Phase 3 vaccine trials take a long time, because you are giving the drug to people who at the time aren’t sick, and then you need to see if they do get sick, and how sick etc. the initial safety can be known quite quickly, because there will be only 1 or 2 doses, but then you need to wait around to see about the safety of the exposure, and any long term concerns from the vaccine. The latter is rare but has happened. The former is more common (vaccine enhancement of the infection) but shows up quicker. Effectively, the vaccine can show it doesn’t work and is terrible quickly, but it takes longer for to show if it works well.

    "That is cool" - Abraham Lincoln
  • JavenJaven Registered User regular
    Florida officials have definitely been running through the whole gamut of ‘it’s not as bad as it seems because’ and just being proven wrong immediately.

    ‘It’s because testing is up!’ Despite still rarely meeting it’s expectation of 30k tests per day

    ‘The positive rate is still down!’ When it has in fact doubled since the spike started, and quadrupled compared to pre-reopening numbers.

    ‘Our hospital are doing fine!’ While hospitalization has rose sharply and many are running low on beds and supplies

    Re-opening was a terrible idea and the population has not been responsible at all

    ceresNightDragonMayabirdGnome-InterruptusBullheadEmerlmaster999monikernever dieshrykeElvenshae
  • DacDac Registered User regular
    edited June 21
    Dac on
    Steam: catseye543
    PSN: ShogunGunshow
    Origin: ShogunGunshow
    Gnome-InterruptustynicmonikerFencingsaxLabelHahnsoo1MrVyngaardKoopahTroopahShadowhopeJoolanderEinzelElvenshae
  • Big DookieBig Dookie Smells great! Houston, TXRegistered User regular
    Javen wrote: »
    Florida officials have definitely been running through the whole gamut of ‘it’s not as bad as it seems because’ and just being proven wrong immediately.

    ‘It’s because testing is up!’ Despite still rarely meeting it’s expectation of 30k tests per day

    ‘The positive rate is still down!’ When it has in fact doubled since the spike started, and quadrupled compared to pre-reopening numbers.

    ‘Our hospital are doing fine!’ While hospitalization has rose sharply and many are running low on beds and supplies

    Re-opening was a terrible idea and the population has not been responsible at all

    You could essentially replace "Florida" with "Texas" and there would be no discernible difference in this post.

    Texas (and Florida, and basically every southern state) is looking really fucked right now.

    Steam | Twitch
    Oculus: TheBigDookie | XBL: Dook | NNID: BigDookie
  • MayabirdMayabird Pecking at the keyboardRegistered User regular


    Eric Topol is a cardiologist and scientist/professor/director at Scripps Research Institute.

    Big thread with lots of scary data, but the most important parts are the graphs he's posting:

    Ea-O9yQUMAIjmM_?format=jpg&name=small

    Ea-VI4-U8AEzSpU?format=jpg&name=small

    Ea_bfDEUcAEZKvT?format=jpg&name=small

    Look at those upswings - and look at Arizona. Their stay-at-home order expired a month ago and the governor has stated he will not do another. A month to go completely out of control, and another month like this? Worst case scenarios I'm seeing on models are 10,000 deaths by August 1st just in Arizona - and Trump's planning to hold a rally in Phoenix in two days.

    Arizonans - keep away from other people. Try to protect your own. It's all you can do now.

    Gnome-InterruptusKlytusthatassemblyguyFencingsaxShadowhopeCaptain InertiashrykeElvenshaeMild ConfusionGizzy
  • ForceVoidForceVoid Registered User regular
    Forum bug post

    Lucedes
  • Jealous DevaJealous Deva Registered User regular
    So it looks like Arizona is in the beginnings of a New York/Italy/Spain spike right now, with another potential outbreak cluster centered around Texas and Oklahoma and one likely around Florida/SC (where’s GA? Maybe behind because they don’t have the same level of beach tourism Flo and SC do? I have heard stories about people returning from Myrtle Beach and saying not to go because its everywhere there, if the beach areas in Florida and South Carolina are outbreak zones that's pretty terrible because its going to seed the entire Eastern seaboard.)

    Its only June and its been hot as fuck outside in those areas, this seems really bad.

  • tbloxhamtbloxham Registered User regular
    So it looks like Arizona is in the beginnings of a New York/Italy/Spain spike right now, with another potential outbreak cluster centered around Texas and Oklahoma and one likely around Florida/SC (where’s GA? Maybe behind because they don’t have the same level of beach tourism Flo and SC do? I have heard stories about people returning from Myrtle Beach and saying not to go because its everywhere there, if the beach areas in Florida and South Carolina are outbreak zones that's pretty terrible because its going to seed the entire Eastern seaboard.)

    Its only June and its been hot as fuck outside in those areas, this seems really bad.

    The heat in those areas is unfortunately hot enough that everyone is pushed inside into sealed areas to use the AC. Which is the worst if those are communal areas with old ac units and poor air filtering etc.

    "That is cool" - Abraham Lincoln
    ShadowhopeGnome-InterruptusCaptain InertiaZilla360shryke
  • romanqwertyromanqwerty Registered User regular
    Yeah I think the temperature dependence is more about that changing our behaviour than warm weather actually killing the virus. From what I recall the temperature to kill the virus is more cooking food temperature than sunny day weather.

    MrVyngaardShadowhopeRingo
  • BogartBogart Streetwise Hercules Fighting The Rising Odds Registered User, Moderator mod
    The forum bug is unfortunate, but that doesn’t mean you should fill up the thread with a pointless post.

    JaysonFourceresNightslyrVishNubFencingsaxKoopahTroopahShadowfireShadowhopeGnome-Interruptus
  • TNTrooperTNTrooper Registered User regular
    Where I am in AZ the it is currently 101 degrees with a high of 107 and the humidity can be compared to Republicans ability to feel shame(basically nonexistent). Warmer weather is not going to make this go away.

    steam_sig.png
    webguy20Zombie HeroQanamilSleeplunchbox12682thatassemblyguyFencingsaxStabbity StyleRingoshryke
  • JragghenJragghen Registered User regular
  • tbloxhamtbloxham Registered User regular
    Yeah I think the temperature dependence is more about that changing our behaviour than warm weather actually killing the virus. From what I recall the temperature to kill the virus is more cooking food temperature than sunny day weather.

    It absolutely lasts much less time in the air and on surfaces in hot, and sunny weather. And it floats less well etc. It is suppressed by heat and sunlight outside. But not enough to matter without significant population wide resistance. Novel flus spread perfectly well in summer too.

    "That is cool" - Abraham Lincoln
  • TetraNitroCubaneTetraNitroCubane The Djinnerator At the bottom of a bottleRegistered User regular
    tbloxham wrote: »
    Yeah I think the temperature dependence is more about that changing our behaviour than warm weather actually killing the virus. From what I recall the temperature to kill the virus is more cooking food temperature than sunny day weather.

    It absolutely lasts much less time in the air and on surfaces in hot, and sunny weather. And it floats less well etc. It is suppressed by heat and sunlight outside. But not enough to matter without significant population wide resistance. Novel flus spread perfectly well in summer too.

    Mind my asking for a reference or source on this data? I haven't seen much about the survivability of the virus with regard to weather.

    VuIBhrs.png
    JragghenVishNubMrVyngaard
  • VishNubVishNub Registered User regular
    Seems like that information is available for SARS 1 (so probably similar for SARS 2) but I wasn’t able to find it for Covid-19
    . Abstract
    The main route of transmission of SARS CoV infection is presumed to be respiratory droplets. However the virus is also detectable in other body fluids and excreta. The stability of the virus at different temperatures and relative humidity on smooth surfaces were studied. The dried virus on smooth surfaces retained its viability for over 5 days at temperatures of 22–25°C and relative humidity of 40–50%, that is, typical air-conditioned environments. However, virus viability was rapidly lost (>3 log10) at higher temperatures and higher relative humidity (e.g., 38°C, and relative humidity of >95%). The better stability of SARS coronavirus at low temperature and low humidity environment may facilitate its transmission in community in subtropical area (such as Hong Kong) during the spring and in air-conditioned environments. It may also explain why some Asian countries in tropical area (such as Malaysia, Indonesia or Thailand) with high temperature and high relative humidity environment did not have major community outbreaks of SARS.

  • tbloxhamtbloxham Registered User regular
    tbloxham wrote: »
    Yeah I think the temperature dependence is more about that changing our behaviour than warm weather actually killing the virus. From what I recall the temperature to kill the virus is more cooking food temperature than sunny day weather.

    It absolutely lasts much less time in the air and on surfaces in hot, and sunny weather. And it floats less well etc. It is suppressed by heat and sunlight outside. But not enough to matter without significant population wide resistance. Novel flus spread perfectly well in summer too.

    Mind my asking for a reference or source on this data? I haven't seen much about the survivability of the virus with regard to weather.

    The DHS study on this from a few months ago was good science, but I can't find a direct link to the actual data. Remember the one which was presented at the press briefing where trump told us to drink bleach? However, here is a recent paper on the issue

    https://academic.oup.com/jid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/infdis/jiaa334/5856149

    Virus is inactivated in droplets of saliva 3x faster in summer levels of sunlight than winter levels, and even winter levels of sunlight is 4x faster decay rates than no sun/indoors.

    This link is a bit crap, but its the only place I can dig up actual data for temperature vs time, and annoyingly they give detectability rather than viability or half life.

    https://www.wwltv.com/mobile/article/news/health/coronavirus/data-sunlight-heat-kills-coronavirus-on-surfaces/289-e12a6ab2-d8af-462c-893e-4e02bf317914

    But again, you can see that temperature etc does have a strong effect. Its just not enough to matter a lot for a virus which is mainly infecting people by being coughed in your mouth as a big old drop.



    "That is cool" - Abraham Lincoln
Sign In or Register to comment.