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Updates on [SARS2/covid-19] (reboot)
ceres
When the last moon is cast over the last star of morningAnd the future has past without even a last desperate warningRegistered User, Moderator Mod Emeritus
When the last moon is cast over the last star of morningAnd the future has past without even a last desperate warningRegistered User, Moderator Mod Emeritus
Given the volume of discussion around this topic, we're gonna be doing things a bit differently until further notice. Instead of one thread, we'll be using two and a half threads.
- An updates and information thread. News about response efforts, updates on the spread of the virus, new resources to keep track of news, political developments directly related to the virus, etc. No rumors, no twitter randos, do your best to make sure it's verified information before posting to this thread.
- A general coronavirus discussion thread. How things are happening in your town, how you're doing, how your family is doing, and other things you don't think go into the updates thread this goes in the general thread.
- The existing chat thread. There are lots of 'fun' or interesting things, posts tangentially related to the disease, cool videos, twitter posts, etc, that aren't news, or really something to discuss. Feel free to post them in the existing chat thread, because it's there for you, even if you don't usually post there. They're not all bad people. It's there, you might as well use it.
This should help us have some readable threads, given the current volume of posts.
I'll be using my move posts powers occasionally, to keep things where they belong, so don't be surprised if that happens.
Edit: Burrack made a thread for lockdown resources, so you might want to look at that as well.
And it seems like all is dying, and would leave the world to mourn
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Brazil had over 50k new cases (the US in comparison had 30k) and just blew past 1 million official cases. And that is still a major undercount, telling from Brazil's very high positivity ratio and the excess death rate.
My Backloggery
Does Brazil have the testing capacity to find 50k new cases or is that including suspected?
I suppose they could just have a ridiculous positive rate on the tests.
Still, that seems real bad.
I guess the real test will be whether we see a corresponding rise in deaths (which have been trending down) in a week or two.
Their positive rate was 50 percent not that long ago.
Something to keep an eye on is the decreasing antibody titers in previous infected. For now, just don't assume that people who previously contracted the virus will be immune 2 months from now.
Doc: That's right, twenty five years into the future. I've always dreamed on seeing the future, looking beyond my years, seeing the progress of mankind. I'll also be able to see who wins the next twenty-five world series.
Yeah, the 2 long term issues that I was made aware of was rate of mutation, and length of immunity, which I had no idea could be a problem.
The question is if memory cells retain the ability to make more antibodies
That seems to be referring specifically to asymptomatic patients, and says they shedded virus for longer. It makes a lot of sense to me, but I'm only semi-educated on it. Is there anything around to say if patients with stronger reactions express the antibodies differently?
Not putting up big numbers compared to some other hotspots, but the last three days have seen over 10% of our entire caseload since the beginning of this mess, and fastest increase per capita in the nation. No specific superspreader events have been identified, just good old fashioned relaxed vigilance in the community.
Edit:
Oh. I see.
Carol Lee is an NBC correspondent, and Dillon Richards is a reporter for an OKC ABC affiliate.
According to the letter, which is not a real article, 81% of asymptomatic and 62% of symptomatic people had a reduction in neutralizing antibodies and 40% vs 16% actually became antibody negative. It is unknown at this point what that means.
Doc: That's right, twenty five years into the future. I've always dreamed on seeing the future, looking beyond my years, seeing the progress of mankind. I'll also be able to see who wins the next twenty-five world series.
Thanks, I didn't get past the abstract before my son wanted to call his grandmother. That first image is kind of crazy though, yikes, it says they were both asymptomatic.
That makes me very nervous, both for efficacy and people deciding there is no problem because we have a vaccine now and ugh it's hard for me to jump at it and say "yes I will totally take this vaccine that is out in less than 9 months." I recognize I might be in the minority there, but it's hard to say I'm excited without a longer term study.
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He'll try to buy it all up and then sell it to other countries for profit.
Edit: Whoops, not the discussion thread.
Mods! They're just like you!
This is very good news, and exactly what we should do, but, it doesn’t mean it works. It just means early safety signals are good, patients aren’t seeing immediate adverse events, and so on. It means it might work, so, best to hope for the best and start making it now. All these articles will seem like rushing, but it’s only rushing if they start dosing everyone (rather than just high risk people) before the data comes out for safety and effacacy.
On the antibody front, that study is weird and on a tiny population. Only 27 people? Much bigger studies have been done which show vast swathes of the population with antibody responses etc. And, as others have said, antibodies are just the easiest part of the immune systems adaptive response to detect. It’s not the only thing the immune system knows how to do.
Same as Kushner did with all the PPE.
The 2 returning from the UK for a funeral that caused all the drama last week
1 returning home from Pakistan
2 returning home from India
All of the cases are in Isolation (i think the 2 UK girls are back in isolation? I think.) and the other 3 are in isolation and do not require medical intervention at the moment
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I'll admit I don't know quite how trials work for biologics, particularly vaccines. For small molecules, phase III trials can last anywhere between a couple of months to several years, depending on how long patients will be taking the medication overall.
Phase 3 vaccine trials take a long time, because you are giving the drug to people who at the time aren’t sick, and then you need to see if they do get sick, and how sick etc. the initial safety can be known quite quickly, because there will be only 1 or 2 doses, but then you need to wait around to see about the safety of the exposure, and any long term concerns from the vaccine. The latter is rare but has happened. The former is more common (vaccine enhancement of the infection) but shows up quicker. Effectively, the vaccine can show it doesn’t work and is terrible quickly, but it takes longer for to show if it works well.
Article is from Thursday, but hospitals in Florida are already out of ICU beds.
‘It’s because testing is up!’ Despite still rarely meeting it’s expectation of 30k tests per day
‘The positive rate is still down!’ When it has in fact doubled since the spike started, and quadrupled compared to pre-reopening numbers.
‘Our hospital are doing fine!’ While hospitalization has rose sharply and many are running low on beds and supplies
Re-opening was a terrible idea and the population has not been responsible at all
Oh so we must be doing good at containing-
oh
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You could essentially replace "Florida" with "Texas" and there would be no discernible difference in this post.
Texas (and Florida, and basically every southern state) is looking really fucked right now.
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Eric Topol is a cardiologist and scientist/professor/director at Scripps Research Institute.
Big thread with lots of scary data, but the most important parts are the graphs he's posting:
Look at those upswings - and look at Arizona. Their stay-at-home order expired a month ago and the governor has stated he will not do another. A month to go completely out of control, and another month like this? Worst case scenarios I'm seeing on models are 10,000 deaths by August 1st just in Arizona - and Trump's planning to hold a rally in Phoenix in two days.
Arizonans - keep away from other people. Try to protect your own. It's all you can do now.
Its only June and its been hot as fuck outside in those areas, this seems really bad.
The heat in those areas is unfortunately hot enough that everyone is pushed inside into sealed areas to use the AC. Which is the worst if those are communal areas with old ac units and poor air filtering etc.
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Sacramento county is two days running with record new infections.
It absolutely lasts much less time in the air and on surfaces in hot, and sunny weather. And it floats less well etc. It is suppressed by heat and sunlight outside. But not enough to matter without significant population wide resistance. Novel flus spread perfectly well in summer too.
Mind my asking for a reference or source on this data? I haven't seen much about the survivability of the virus with regard to weather.
The DHS study on this from a few months ago was good science, but I can't find a direct link to the actual data. Remember the one which was presented at the press briefing where trump told us to drink bleach? However, here is a recent paper on the issue
https://academic.oup.com/jid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/infdis/jiaa334/5856149
Virus is inactivated in droplets of saliva 3x faster in summer levels of sunlight than winter levels, and even winter levels of sunlight is 4x faster decay rates than no sun/indoors.
This link is a bit crap, but its the only place I can dig up actual data for temperature vs time, and annoyingly they give detectability rather than viability or half life.
https://www.wwltv.com/mobile/article/news/health/coronavirus/data-sunlight-heat-kills-coronavirus-on-surfaces/289-e12a6ab2-d8af-462c-893e-4e02bf317914
But again, you can see that temperature etc does have a strong effect. Its just not enough to matter a lot for a virus which is mainly infecting people by being coughed in your mouth as a big old drop.