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Every [Economy] evolves to housing, even when it is about cars
Karoz
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STOP AND THINK: If your post isn't even tangentially related to the Economy, don't post it.
OP stolen and edited from the previous thread by silence1186
silence1186's synopsis on the original reason for this thread
silence1186 wrote:So tangential to many discussions I've been following in D&D (taxes, the budget, the Russia investigation) have been posts about the state of the economy, and the potential for an economic downturn in the very near future. Rather than have off-topic discussions in those threads, I feel like there's enough meat for a discussion about the current US economy, the signs of a potential recession, how such a recession could affect the world economy, and what the political ramifications such a downturn might cause.
I wrote those words almost a year ago, and honestly, I figured we'd have had some kind of economic crisis that would precipitate a sudden and painful downturn in the economy. Look at who's at the helm, after all. There are still worrying signs, but I feel like we've been waiting for the shoe to drop for quite some time.
The present and future outlook (January 2021)
Many months later and we're still in the throws of pandemic depression albeit with a too slow vaccine rollout which will hopefully change. Some businesses are just opening anyways while others are shuttered forever and states each do their own thing. The Biden presidency will soon be on us with another round of stimulus it seems but hard to say how effective they will be. Many Trump presidency economic policies may or may not change with management so stay tuned. Oh yeah, I guess Brexit is happened and they're trying to get deals a going.
A snap shot from the previous thread thoughts
So we're in a...depression? of the economy due to the closing of most business via government orders to halt the spread of Covid-19 resulting in a unemployment rate of 14.7 for April 2020. There has been one pass of stimulus funding in the US but the current trend is to reopen business as local and state governments struggle with budget shortfalls despite the virus very much not contained in the United States. It's hard to say what the future will hold as the virus's containment and opening procedures of various states progress in the coming month. Global tensions and tariffs between powers such as China and the US continue, partially exacerbated by the spread of Covid-19 and do not seem to be discontinued any time soon. But this is an election year so it's hard to see how the future will progress in the coming months.
silence1186 wrote:The last economic crisis was ~10 years ago, and conventional wisdom says the boom and bust cycle is also ~10 years, so in that sense we're "due" for one. Conventional wisdom doesn't always hold. For example, unemployment is historically low (cite), but there's no upward pressure on wage growth (cite). AresProphet had an effort post about it.
In the last year Mr. Trump decided since Trade Wars are the easiest thing in the world to win, he would go ahead and start them with basically the entire world. This has led to a tit for tat escalation with China, with no signs of either side backing down. For the last few quarters, companies have been stockpiling materials in anticipation of increased costs (leading to deceptively high economic growth), but this could have catastrophic long term consequences for the US. For example, Chinese buyers are shifting away from US soybeans, and even if a future president ends the tariffs, there's no guarantee they'll ever come back to US markets.
Also worrying is the impending no-deal Brexit. Although the finer points can be discussed in the relevant thread, if it goes forward as is it promises to be a disastrous exogenous shock to the global economy.
Useful US Economy Info Links
US Bureau of Labor Statistics
Economic Research at the St. Louis Fed
Investopedia -- for those crazy economic terms and subjects you need to deep dive on
Economic Research at the St. Louis Fed
Investopedia -- for those crazy economic terms and subjects you need to deep dive on
silence1186 wrote:There's lots going on, and plenty of in depth, high level discussion to be had, so be excellent to each other, and let's watch and see what happens to the economy this year.
Again, this is the Economy thread. Keep it about the Economy.
Previous threads links (OP dates)
Covid edition 2020 thread (May 2020-January 2021)
Unfortunate avoidances thread (January 2020)
Centipede thread (October 2018)
Collapsing thread (December 2017)
Link to ronya's last excellent Economy thread. (July 2010)
Unfortunate avoidances thread (January 2020)
Centipede thread (October 2018)
Collapsing thread (December 2017)
Link to ronya's last excellent Economy thread. (July 2010)
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It required a drill press, a router, and several other pieces of basic equipment that I've never even seen in person, much less have the money or space to own.
And I'm like... what kind of world was this, where a magazine geared toward average middle-class folks could just assume access to $10-$20K worth of woodworking tools?
While probably shut down now it may be possible that your local area has a tool library. I know there is one on capital hill in Seattle as an example
Quoted this elsewhere, and got this back:
Chicago Park District has a handful of woodworking shops available to the public. I've wanted to check them out, and I think you probably have to do a class and make a birdhouse or something before they'll just let you play with a band saw, but it's a thing that might be available elsewhere.
But woodworking is always an inherently expensive hobby. And should be. We need more sustainably harvested forests, and that means more expensive wood. But even formerly cheap hobbies and sports and things are becoming less common because nobody has spare money and spare time to blow. Which cycles back into the broader economy because folks get paid to supply those goods and services for your beer league. Also, because a lot of new companies or inventions or advances come from tinkering with shit by hobbyists that takeoff.
There's a makerspace nearby that I intend to check out as soon as it's safe to gather again.
Here's a thing that can help you locate a tool library. The data is user submitted, so it's not comprehensive, but it might be useful.
I think that TSLA has metastasized from stock to cryptocurrency.
Yeah, you see this happen a lot and I hate it every time. I used to subscribe to Make Magazine back when they would put out quarterly issues packed to the gills with cool shit you could build, and for the most part the tools required were generally low tech enough that anybody could afford them. And then they switched up their format, started releasing monthly issues, and every f'n issue became a "shootout" of the newest 3d printing machines, which require dedicated space and $1000 just to really get a decent setup going. And all the good information and deep dive articles were gone, replaced with shallow, gimmicky eye candy. It was like I was reading Men's Fitness for Makers.
It's so true about hobbies though. Out of all my friends, only one has built a dedicated shop for wood working, and he's arguably one of the wealthiest, with the most secure job, in my group of friends.
That's the reality of the magazine industry unfortunately. All magazines have gone this way over the past like 20 years in my experience. There are virtually no "real magazines", as we'd have though of them 30-40 years ago, left.
The internet especially is fucking murdering this kind of print media in multiple different ways.
The NYSE probably uses a lot less energy
You really don't need $10,000 worth of tools to do woodworking. I've tackled a decent number of projects and my toolkit is basically a circular saw, a miter saw, a jigsaw, a cordless drill, and an orbital sander. More tools make it easier, and you need a certain amount of space to work and handle the sawdust, but you can get really far with $1000 or less invested in tools.
Lumber is expensive, though.
EDIT: Building on this actually, this is a common thread with a lot of hobbies. They cost as much money as you have available to spend. My friend and I both love dirt biking. I bought a 10 year old bike for $2500 that's still worth about the same today, and has needed $100-200 or so in maintenance over the last 5 years. He bought a brand new KTM for $8,000, and sold it for half that a few years later when he didn't have as much time to ride. Same story when I go autocrossing - I spend maybe $1000 a year on tires and brakes, on a car that I normally drive every day. Other friends throw thousands of dollars at custom wheel and tire setups and suspension kits. Do I win? No. Am I having as much fun as they are? Definitely!
You can't give someone a pirate ship in one game, and then take it back in the next game. It's rude.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-21/instacart-to-cut-1-900-jobs-including-its-only-union-positions
It seems that years ago they were afraid that Prop 22 wasn't going to pass, so they made the workers employees. But now they realize they don't want to do things like pay minimum wages and health care and the like, so they're gone because they're not able to reclassify them as contractors.
Sure, but ~40% of Americans don't have a spare $400 for an emergency, let alone 6x that for funsies.
https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/2019-economic-well-being-of-us-households-in-2018-dealing-with-unexpected-expenses.htm
To be fair, part of the reason many people don't have 400$ to spare is because they just spent 2 grand for funsies. Seriously, people are just terrible at saving money. I personally know alot of people who are functionally broke despite making a ton of money, simply because they spend it all immediately and rack up their credit cards. All those people driving 50k trucks ain't rich, they're just racked up on debt.
The number of people I've seen / heard talking about how hard times are when their hobby involves $25k in side-by-sides they pull behind their $50k pickup is insane.
And these arent 25 year old single guys who are expected to be dumb, these are 35 / 45 year old people with two kids and a mortgage.
We are very well off and I still don't understand where these people are coming up with the kind of money they blow on their hobbies. We are already budgeting to buy a $15k tractor and probably won't buy it for a few years. In debt to the gills is the only explanation I can come up with.
None of that matters if you've made 400% on the tulips and got out.
Buy the rumor, sell the news.
I never do more than 5% of my total holdings, but I won't lie. I made more money off the stock market in 2020 than I did working due to Covid-19 layoffs. I fully admit luck was on my side, but I also didn't have much to lose if I lost it all either. Trust me, I did the compound math return.
I've since switched the biggest 40%, 50%, 110% returns into safer dividend companies. But if you have the right attitude about easy come-easy go, yeah, go nuts. It probably cut my age to retirement by 5 years.
I can confirm based on my own personal experience of myself, people are bad at saving money.
This is my hunch for the current real estate market as well. Hearing stories of folks removing the right for inspection or putting an unlimited offer up, makes me think folks are so desperate for a house, they may be doing really harmful moves like spending 50%+ of their monthly income on it.
reading the WSB thread ( https://old.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/l2ljpt/gmreeeeeeeeeeee_containment_thread_gme_shitposts/?sort=new )
is kind of ridiculous
it's wild how much these people can move the price of a stock...
Cause when you need to do some repairs or some hobby work or whatever and you need tools for it, a great source if you can is to just borrow them from your parents.
I mean, that is certainly true, but it doesn't square with all the industries that Millennials are destroying.
Meanwhile nobody having any money to begin with mostly does. Along with all the other macroeconomic data about now generation long wage stagnation and wealth concentration.
Maybe it was growing up poor, but if I spend money I want it to be worth it. The traditional status symbols jut seem pointless.
I don't think this has changed. There will always be a subset of people that are not financially responsible, or have the means to not care, that push up the market either through price or other methods that give the edge like waiving various contingencies. Banks participate by allowing people borrow higher amounts than are financially responsible and that puts pressure on home prices as you're competing with them.
You can literally use your Tesla to mine Bitcoin.
Also on Steam and PSN: twobadcats
Interestingly it went private today.
Also on Steam and PSN: twobadcats