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[War] Russian into Ukraine: Bad Idea
zagdrob
Registered User regular
Registered User regular
Approaching the two week mark in the Russian invasion of Ukraine that started the morning of February 24th (local time) and it's still unclear who is winning this war.
Ukraine and western intelligence sources are reporting that Russia has committed 100% of their operational reserves to Ukraine, and are currently pulling additional reserves from the rest of Russia including the far east. Most estimates are placing Russian deaths in these two weeks around the total American military deaths in 20 years of the Global War on Terror. Russia has lost two generals and two colonels in the fighting, and reports are that a bare minimum of 5% of their forces have been destroyed with many estimates significantly higher.
The armored convoy approaching Kyiv has been stalled for over a week now and lacks fuel and food, reports are that Russian soldiers have been looting food from and quartering in local homes. So far the Russian Air Force still does not have air superiority, and in breaking news Poland has agreed to send 27 Mig-29 fighter jets to Ukraine (via the US acting as an intermediary) in exchange for US F-16s, and is encouraging other former Warsaw Pact NATO members to do the same. Ukrainian drones have been proving their worth as well.
Russia has had more success in the south of Ukraine and is in control of Kherson, Melitopol, and Berdiansk. This infographic published by the New York Times is considered accurate as of 3:00 EST on 3/7.
In Russia sanctions are taking their toll, with many Western companies ranging from Unilever to McDonalds to Visa and Mastercard suspending operations in Russia. So far, the Russian stock market has yet to open and all indications are that it's going to be a bad day when it does. Western countries have also been freezing or seizing a great deal of Russian oligarch wealth, and even Switzerland has taken a side against Russia.
This thread moves fast - the Post-Soviet States thread went through 150 pages in eight years but since the invasion we've gone through over 200 pages of discussion in the [War] thread.
Most importantly - if you feel overwhelmed or stressed take a break. Nobody has a duty to doomscroll and read every post.
And for our American-centric posters, here's an overlay of Ukraine over the US. For reference, Kyiv would be mid-Tennessee or roughly Nashville on this map. A couple hour at most drive from the Russian / Belarus border where the Russian armed forces staged.
Off limits is in depth discussion of Democratic Socialists of America, tankies, and leftist / centrist sniping. Also with Azov battalion or other Neo Nazis largely having fled the country or otherwise likely dead / POWs please avoid this derail unless there is meaningful new information.
Per mod decree, we all agree war crimes are bad. Without reliable and well sourced evidence we should not simply assume they are being done.
For in-depth discussion of NATO vs. Russia nuclear war, MAD, or other general nuclear war topics only somewhat related to Ukraine we have the GDST Global Thermonuclear War thread here:
https://forums.penny-arcade.com/discussion/188967/a-god-damned-separate-thread-for-your-argument-about-global-thermonuclear-war
Edit - fixed the NYT map.
Ukraine and western intelligence sources are reporting that Russia has committed 100% of their operational reserves to Ukraine, and are currently pulling additional reserves from the rest of Russia including the far east. Most estimates are placing Russian deaths in these two weeks around the total American military deaths in 20 years of the Global War on Terror. Russia has lost two generals and two colonels in the fighting, and reports are that a bare minimum of 5% of their forces have been destroyed with many estimates significantly higher.
The armored convoy approaching Kyiv has been stalled for over a week now and lacks fuel and food, reports are that Russian soldiers have been looting food from and quartering in local homes. So far the Russian Air Force still does not have air superiority, and in breaking news Poland has agreed to send 27 Mig-29 fighter jets to Ukraine (via the US acting as an intermediary) in exchange for US F-16s, and is encouraging other former Warsaw Pact NATO members to do the same. Ukrainian drones have been proving their worth as well.
Russia has had more success in the south of Ukraine and is in control of Kherson, Melitopol, and Berdiansk. This infographic published by the New York Times is considered accurate as of 3:00 EST on 3/7.
In Russia sanctions are taking their toll, with many Western companies ranging from Unilever to McDonalds to Visa and Mastercard suspending operations in Russia. So far, the Russian stock market has yet to open and all indications are that it's going to be a bad day when it does. Western countries have also been freezing or seizing a great deal of Russian oligarch wealth, and even Switzerland has taken a side against Russia.
This thread moves fast - the Post-Soviet States thread went through 150 pages in eight years but since the invasion we've gone through over 200 pages of discussion in the [War] thread.
Most importantly - if you feel overwhelmed or stressed take a break. Nobody has a duty to doomscroll and read every post.
And for our American-centric posters, here's an overlay of Ukraine over the US. For reference, Kyiv would be mid-Tennessee or roughly Nashville on this map. A couple hour at most drive from the Russian / Belarus border where the Russian armed forces staged.
Off limits is in depth discussion of Democratic Socialists of America, tankies, and leftist / centrist sniping. Also with Azov battalion or other Neo Nazis largely having fled the country or otherwise likely dead / POWs please avoid this derail unless there is meaningful new information.
Per mod decree, we all agree war crimes are bad. Without reliable and well sourced evidence we should not simply assume they are being done.
For in-depth discussion of NATO vs. Russia nuclear war, MAD, or other general nuclear war topics only somewhat related to Ukraine we have the GDST Global Thermonuclear War thread here:
https://forums.penny-arcade.com/discussion/188967/a-god-damned-separate-thread-for-your-argument-about-global-thermonuclear-war
Edit - fixed the NYT map.
ceres on
+35
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How is this tenable? I mean, really... For the entirety of the war, will they just keep markets closed indefinitely?
What happens if they don't open them? Who says they need to? This feels very unprecedented, and I don't know how any investor doesn't immediately flee at the first chance the markets open.
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I want to say it's basically a given that the longer they stay closed the bigger the shock when they reopen? Like, they're trying to prevent bad news by kicking the can down the road, except it's a snowball rolling downhill.
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Over time the inability of companies to issue new stock will further harm the economy. Eventually people will write off the existing stocks and they will essentially become worthless. Also anyone who was planning on selling stock as part of their normal financial process won't be able to and that could cause defaults and bankruptcies and whatever.
I am not sure that matters in Russia because its so very concentrated in ownership but it cannot be a good effect in general.
Longer they are closed the more it's going to drop when they do eventually open. Businesses that rely on stocks to raise capital are basically frozen right now, and have no idea what they are worth.
Medium term you'll see ripples where financial institutions can't sell stocks or investments they are holding to pay pensions and those sorts of things run out of liquidity.
If it goes on long enough without opening, places will start writing down stocks as total losses or dumping them off-market for pennies on the dollar to vultures / gamblers.
I don't think there is really a precedent for an entire nation's economy to just close for a week and a half like this, certainly not while they are in the middle of all the other stuff going on. It's going to be bad though.
Probably just need to negotiate a buyout of the oligarchy's various holdings before they reopen the floodgates.
I mean it seems like it would piss a lot of people off to no end, but it's kinda an economic nuclear option, right?
Yeah, they have over 1200 of the things and Lockheed Martin is still producing them in the f-16V variant. Which is probably the variant Poland wants and might get for free.
The Polish air force has around 23 MiG-29s, operational and they have been updated to be compatible with their F-16s, which means compatible with Western munitions. A potential big game changer, if those MiGs come with PGMs and US Jammers.
what it tells you though, is that the people in charge think keeping things closed is less painful than opening them. What follows will be a crash that will in all likelihood make black monday look like a mild correction
that's why we call it the struggle, you're supposed to sweat
Training. Ukraine already use MIG-29s, so they can pilot them. If we gave them F-16s, they'd need extended training on it.
because Ukraine knows how to fly and service MiGs, and has the support infrastructure in place. Not so much with US kit.
I guess I'm a little wary of these pictures (or at least the text of the tweet) because the end cap is full.
Ukrainian pilots know how to fly MiGs and aren't trained on F-16s, basically. Poland flies both types of planes, and has time to retrain their MiG pilots over to other models because they're not actively at war.
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PSN: AbEntropy
Ukraine operates Mig-29s, so they have the munitions, training, and infrastructure to operate and maintain them.
They don't operate F-16s so they would have trouble immediately taking them into combat.
How long until the US gets them to the Ukrainians?
Is this any better at preventing world war three than giving them US planes?
As far as I understand it, the Ukrainian AF has pilots fully trained on the MiG and not the F-16.
The Polish AF, as a member of NATO, has probably been training/owns F-16s in the mix.
that's why we call it the struggle, you're supposed to sweat
I'm curious if there is a mechanism for them to simply require all trades be approved 'confirmed' by some new department in the Ministry of Finance. An indefinite, defacto nationalization that would probably be easier to spin domestically.
I expect they could legally do this, but I have to imagine Putin looking at the state bureaucracy, finance, and industrial management capabilities, and then at the hollow shell of the Russian “military”, and wondering just what might happen if he tried.
In general, I like to imagine Putin in a paranoid hall of mirrors where he cannot tell what is real and what is papier-mâché covering for yet another 110-meter grift-yacht in the pleasure ports of the Mediterranean. Not because it gives analytical clarity or useful perspective, just because the image makes me chuckle.
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Meanwhile the US is like "wait what?"
Reporter:
this feels like a game of "you deliver the jets." "no YOU deliver the jets!" "JET SEASON!" "PLANE SEASON!"
I would guess they're going to take out some export controlled/NATO-only electronics
The US hasn't given the MiGs to Ukraine yet.
We may end up doing so but right now it's a deal between the Poland and the US.
Obviously the unspoken implication is that we will but that's probably the point at this stage.
More pressure on Russia to back off.
1. Ukranian pilots are trained on the MiG-29
2. Ukrainian ground crews know how to service the MiG-29
3. Ukrainian arsrnals have missiles compatible with the MiG-29
4. MiG-29s don't have any sensitive US technology that might crash-land in Russian-controlled territory
https://www.reuters.com/business/russia-proposes-nationalising-foreign-owned-factories-that-shut-operations-2022-03-08/
Apparently a member of the Russian government has already proposed nationalizing any factories abandoned by companies exiting the Russian market. Of course, they can "nationalize" them easy enough, but actually running the business is a whole nother problem that they aren't likely capable of doing (Also see; Soviet Union economy.) Especially with the brain drain going on there now. Just like they aren't capable of occupying Ukraine or rebuilding it, Russia has nothing but bad ideas floating around in place of actual solutions.
I noticed that as well, but have no idea what to make of it
It limits the ability of companies to raise funds by creating and selling stock. It also lowers confidence in the market for obvious reasons, making it harder for companies to sell newly created stock, but potentially not so much as a market crash. The short term effects are largely psychological, since most companies will not be selling newly created stock to make ends meet - they’ll be raising money for growth and expansion, which would just be deferred slightly.
In the long term, they’re fucked because of the sanctions, and keeping the market closed is like that meme showing falling dishes caught against a glass door.
It's difficult to see how Russia can expect any kind of 'normal' foreign investment after this. The best possible case will see really huge risk premiums. More likely, it's going to be asset firesales of anything not nailed down, COD only, as the country's remaining economic base is looted. They've really torched the possibility of being seen as a reliable partner for anything until there is a significant and sustained regime change.
If I had to guess it's probably just the supermarket moving around stock / displays.
Something completely unrelated to shortages but passed off that way because it seems truthy.
Edit - if they are sold out there's usually still something left there, even if it's just dented cans or things people set down. These shelves are completely empty end to end.
Oh hey, I called it!
Are the Polish and American governments trying to compete with Russia for the appearance of incompetence at this point? There's zero reason for them to be playing this game for this many rounds.
If I was a Ukrainian pilot I'd be well past interpreting this as "the aircraft will not be coming, period."