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The Russo-Ukranian [War] sadly still continues.
Posts
Tweet Text:
"As a genocide scholar I am an empiricist, I usually dismiss rhetoric. I also take genocide claims with a truckload of salt because activists apply it almost everywhere now.
Not now. There are actions, there is intent. It's as genocide as it gets. Pure, simple and for all to see"
Warning if you go to the tweet
@CrazyP
There's nothing you could have done to stop this. The best thing you can do now is to make sure you're still around to cause good trouble when Putin finally succumbs to entropy and there's room for change led by people who don't have nostalgia for the USSR.
Or run like hell.
Running like hell to get out of Russia before Putin fully transforms it into North Korea is also very viable.
But Russia has almost always been led by people like Putin. How do you change a culture that does not believe change is possible? Especially as one person?
I'm not talking about a coup or whatever, but if he quit or died (if the rumours about him getting a bad diagnosis that set this all off are true, or he went to a negotiation with Zelensky and drank the wrong water, whatever), who would replace him? Does Russia have a clear line of succession, or would it be a free-for-all?
I left it in to present the alternative but we shouldn't be bat signaling CrazyP every few seconds
Tweets contain these two images
Tweeter is an osint account.
There's public broadcast company microphones visible, so it's not a secret visit or anything
Yeah... on the one hand, dehumanizing the other side like this is bad, and can lead to horrible atrocities... on the other hand the other side in this case is already committing horrible atrocities soooo ....
I just watched the first episode of Zelenskyy's show Servant of the People (which is funny and great), and comparing that fresh-faced actor with this man who has aged 20 years in a month witnessing these crimes is startling.
Highly unlikely it was a live broadcast. He probrably visited in secret and then the footage was shown after he was secure.
There's no clear successor as far as I know, primarily because anyone put in that position would quickly get enough of a powerbase to start considering a Klingon promotion. I'm not sure if the sudden death of Putin would result in careful maneuvering with very focused violence because the oligarchs are living large even with the sanctions, so generally they'd want a smooth transition so they can keep their lifestyle; or if it'd be super-crazy violence because one of them just decided that that's what would eventually happen so they might as well get the first mover advantage.
My personal guess, based on nothing, is that it'd likely be like the MBS shakedown in SA a few years ago. Someone in the internal security sector will 'invite' anyone who might possibly matter to an all inclusive retreat at a luxury motel where they will either bend the knee or voluntarily hand over the vast majority of their assets in return for leaving Russia mostly intact... if they're lucky. Depends on the drainage and soundproofing in the basement most likely.
Yeah, that second photo is a gut punch.
Unless the economic sanctions from Europe cut off oil sales, I don't think Putin is going to care. The evidence of genocide may get Germany to act, though, which could lead the other European countries that rely on Russian gas.
I have a fairly iron constitution and am unphased by a lot of atrocities, so viewing the images, not just from Bucha, but from several regions as Ukraine's armies move back into their lands that Russia left, it's hard to not view this as both an attempt to commit cultural and physical genocide en masse. Ukraine is extremely fortunate to have avoided a complete loss.
I can only hope the entirety of the West is motivated to move against these sort of autocratic norms in the future, and it surges a LOT of funds into the Ukraine to rebuild them and leave them better off.
3DSFF: 5026-4429-6577
I feel like we've addressed this point plenty of times already. Russia not only does not have an endless supply of manpower, they are outnumbered. The only way Russia could gain a numerical advantage is through a mass mobilization, which not only does Putin not want to do for PR reasons, but because those conscripts would take months to arrive and would probably have almost no equipment to fight with when they did.
You mean legally? Then it'll be current premier Mishustin. Same if he suddenly retires - the is no "heir designation" in Constitution, Putin originally became president because he was legally next in-line. Well, he was obviously given that position, because he was expected to be made president, but procedure was important - Yeltsin could not just name anybody next head of government after resigning.
Putin settled for a very "average" draft just recently. He is not ready to take Russia to mobilization and declare an actual war, because he knows the army/public/economy is not ready for it and it would force the west to change its view of things ("Russia will settle for Donbas and a stretch of coast").
I agree with this, why waste time on a vote at this point.
We know it's very important for Russia, they threatened to turn of the gas if payments were made in Ruble, and when they weren't the gas still flowed.
If only Germany wasn't afraid of tsunami's/fault lines also crippling their nuclear reactors /s
We have to remain cognizant of the fact that Ukraine is not a disinterested party and that they will as a matter of course distort, exaggerate and manipulate events like Bucha to maximum effect. Zelensky and his government are trying their hardest to influence U.S. and NATO public opinion and policy as a matter of life or death. That doesn't make Ukraine evil, nor does it exonerate Russia or mean the atrocity did not occur. There must be a rigorous investigation by international observers to document the real sequence of events and the scope of the crimes that have occurred. We should insist upon this while also condemning the crime and refuting transparent disinformation.
As an American, I know my own country has done heinous things in my lifetime and I have voted for politicians knowing they were complicit in heinous things. It's something I think every American in this thread has dealt with. You've already shown more moral courage than I have on many occasions (see the Kabul drone strike in the Afghanistan thread last august) by acknowledging the reality of your government's actions.
The rate that Russia is bleeding advanced weapons, troops, and supply vehicles they've already been forced to abandon their plans of conquest and occupation of the whole country. That wasn't in the plans. There's no magic resupply for the forces they've lost. As others have pointed out, those fighters bombers, tanks, elite troops are getting torn to shreds at far fast rates that can be replaced.
In modern warfare, if you feed 100k troops into the battlefield without support or logistics, you're gonna get half that number back in corpses.
I think everyone understands that at this point, we're also still waiting for one of these atrocities not to be true but unfortunately Russia keeps proving everything true.
EDIT:
Honestly I am so incredibly happy that Biden is in power and that the US is rallying people of Europe. A few months ago I would have not thought it possible. At this point I have a lot of trust in the information they are putting out and their decisions on matters.
Back then, the USA was itching for a fight with Iraq. This time they have the opposite motivation... they desperately want to avoid war with Russia. You need to examine motivations a bit more closely than just going for a "USA always lies because it loves starting wars" narrative. The USA just got out of one quagmire and is war-weary.
Looking at lack of volunteers lining to military recruitment centers: polls were clear - even population that is all gun ho about war, dos not want to actually go there themselves (fact that most of them are in 50+ age category maybe has something to do with it), nor to sent their own kids there. Other part either already actively hates Putin or is just to afraid to be "dissapeared" to speak against regime.
Now do you think it'll be smart to start mass mobilization, give all this people weapons, organize them in military detachments and order to go die in a foreign war?
I'm a foreign policy hawk/liberal interventionist by inclination, so I'm saying it out loud to remind myself as much as anyone else.
Well if you've followed the thread I'm sure you'll notice we just had pages of reminders, please learn to read the room.
The US is very obviously treading carefully, otherwise we would of probably had that No-Fly zone in play. The US has been very competent about what they are disclosing and agreeing to.
Yeah, fair enough, sorry. I didn't read the last pages of the previous thread before posting in this one.
If the US populace were going to make an exception to being war-weary in order to fight any nation, it would be Russia. I'm pretty sure the entire nation would get a hard-on over the idea of getting to finally directly fight Russian forces while being a clear-cut good guy, especially now that everybody knows the Russian military is pretty pathetic. If nuclear war wasn't the limitation here, I'm certain that the US would already be neck-deep in this war and doing a mass counteroffensive while Russia figures out what the fuck it's going to do with this mess it's made.
I've seen Russian posters in some other forums/discords say conflicting things about the number of volunteers showing up at recruitment centers since the war started. Can you link those polls? Is official media claiming the volunteer rate is high?
Yeah.. You can see it in the shifting of forces, too. Previously it was generally accepted that the Baltics couldn't be held and would basically only buy time for the rest of Europe. But with this incredibly pathetic showing, the general thinking has shifted to "fuck it. We can just destroy them in the Baltics, they're weak", if Russia attacks Nato.
Yeah, as unhappy as I am that Biden has domestically been a disappointment (while still being leagues better than his Republican competitors), he has handled international affairs as close to perfectly as possible. The US shouldn't, and doesn't need to, be the great big ol' swinging military dick around the world when we also have vast soft power and intelligence resources.
"Sunlight is the best disinfectant" is a refreshing take on international intrigue. I just wish that the infection wasn't so serious.
I'm not sure. In 2016, one of the most common talking points I saw from the 'reluctant Trump voter' camp was "Hillary will start a war with Russia over Syria." Many of the people in the enthusiastic Trump voter camp are Putin admirers. And I think there's still a substantial slice of Bush-era leftists who share the Trumpian contempt for the mainstream media, and believe this is a manufactured conflict serving American imperial interests.
e: to be 100% honest, given the latter, I was actually taken aback by the overwhelming consensus on this forum in favor of arming Ukraine
"Nuclear war" is the key here.
The USA wouldn't want to invade Russia but it would probably offer air support if nuclear war wasn't a factor. But it is, which is why the USA is not going to stick its dick in this anthill no matter how many genocides Russia does.