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The 2022 American Midterm Election
enlightenedbum
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Registered User regular
So hey there's yet another American election. It's a mid-term.
At stake: just you know, American democracy and stuff, no biggy. More concretely: abortion rights, climate legislation, gay marriage (maybe? that bill might actually pass this Congress), court appointments, better health care, Joe Biden's entire theoretical agenda from 2021, the continued operation of the January 6 Committee, preventing all the dumb bullshit the GOP wants to talk about in 2024 from muddying the waters (Hunter Biden, Antifa caused 1/6, etc etc etc), AND MAKING JOE MANCHIN FUCKING IRRELEVANT.
As always, every representative is up. Generic ballot has moved towards the Democrats in the wake of Dobbs and the other nuttiness from the Supreme Court at the end of June and possibly also with the January 6 hearings, which started around the same time. Average is something like D+4 at the moment...which might be enough to retain the House. It'd be a squeaker if the election were today. Individual House races are rarely worth talking about, especially because there are only something like 75 competitive House seats in the whole country (if that) due to gerrymandering. There are some primaries of interest though and obviously we can talk about them.
Senate map. Dark blue = retiring Democrat, dark red = retiring Republican, light blue is incumbent Democrat running for re-election, pink is incumbent Republican.
Current status: 50-50 split, with Harris breaking ties...if Democrats can get Manchin/Sinema and there's no filibuster. This is OK for appointments and not functional for legislation. Promise from most Democrats is to nuke the filibuster (or at least establish carveouts like they did for the debt ceiling) if they get 50 votes in favor, which is to say a 52-48 margin. D+2 seats is the goal here.
The races to watch (in arbitrary order):
The Big Five:
Pennsylvania: John Fetterman (D, Lt. Governor) vs. Mehmet Oz (R, New Jersey resident, respected surgeon turned TV quack)
This is the seat being vacated by retiring Republican Pat Toomey. Pennsylvania is by default a Democratic lean and Fetterman has spent the time since his stroke just before the primary absolutely clowning on Oz at every possible opportunity. Mostly for being a tourist and not actually a Pennsylvania resident. But also for being a rich out of touch asshole while Fetterman is a born and raised Pennsylvanian who cares about the people there. He is also very insistent about wanting to be the vote that nukes the filibuster and makes Joe Manchin irrelevant.
Current polling: Clear Fetterman lead
Georgia: Senator Raphael Warnock (D - still weird to say) vs. Herschel Walker (R, former NFL and more importantly UGA star)
This would be the most depressing loss and mean that candidate quality just isn't important at all anymore. Warnock is one of the better Democratic candidates in recent memory in a state that is starting to trend towards being a swing state. Walker is, well a former football star who took a few too many blows to the head to put it lightly. He's unstable, routinely threatens violence, has several secret children he barely acknowledges or supports, cannot speak ten words without saying something nonsensical, etc. Basically imagine if Trump had severe CTE.
Current polling: Tied, maybe slight Warnock lead? It's close. At least on average, there was one big Warnock lead but looks like an outlier.
Arizona: Senator Mark Kelly (D, astronaut) vs. GOP Candidate TBD, primary August 2
The other hard to defend Democratic seat. Leading GOP candidate is Blake Masters, a fascist election denier extremely well funded by Peter Thiel. He leads Mark Brnovich by about 10 points. Brnovich is more a standard Republican extremist, not an outright fascist like Masters. Naturally he's probably doomed. Kelly is what you'd expect from a pink state Democrat. Not a firebrand leftist, but much more loyal than his duplicitous colleague, Sinema.
Current general election polling: Kelly leads, but might be some consolidation on the GOP side once the primary ends
Nevada: Senator Catherine Cortez Masto (D) vs. Adam Laxalt (R, former Nevada AG)
She's solid, he sucks, he's lost a bunch of statewide elections but won one once!
Current polling: Masto leads but not by much; Nevada is also notoriously difficult to poll and the Reid Machine usually comes through. I assume it still exists even though he's passed.
Wisconsin: Senator Ron Johnson (R, should be indicted for fake elector things but won't be) vs. Democrat TBD, primary August 9
The state's lieutenant governor, Mandela Barnes, has led every primary poll, but there were still a TON of undecideds as of the last public poll a month ago. He has the endorsements of a bunch of people across the Democratic Party (Clyburn AND AOC, for example) He's towards the left end of the party (voted for Sanders in 2016 and 2020, supports M4A, etc.) Also a filibuster opponent. Main competition is the state's treasurer, Sarah Godlewski. Also pretty liberal, but maybe a bit more towards the center of the party. A filibuster opponent. Probably get a good candidate out of it.
Current polling: there's almost none of it, but the Wisconsin gold standard of Marquette Law has both main Democrats up 2 over Johnson (pre-Dobbs)
Less likely to flip, but worth observing:
New Hampshire Senator Maggie Hassan vs. Republican TBD on September 13, but probably General Donald Bolduc
He's a conspiracy nut who thinks the 2020 election is rigged. But New Hampshire is fucking weird and not worth trusting.
Current polling: Hassan leads, but only by single digits
Ohio Author of Hillbilly Elegy JD Vance (R) vs. Rep. Tim Ryan (D)
Vance is a Trump convert funded by Thiel. Openly fascistic and awful. Also wrote a book about how much rural Ohioans suck and he hates his mom. Tim Ryan is a poor man's Sherrod Brown and we'll see if that can carry him to the Senate in a red state that only Sherrod Brown and Barack Obama can win statewide as a Democrat lately.
Current polling: consistently small Ryan lead, but I don't trust Ohio. /Michigander
Florida Senator Marco Rubio (R) vs. Rep. Val Demmings (D) (almost certainly, primary is August 23)
Speaking of states that are not trustworthy, it's Florida. Rubio is a spineless lickspittle, but has a reputation as a moderate and bright young star among the press. Still. Somehow. Demmings is good for a Florida Democrat, but that state party is a fucking mess.
Current polling: Rubio leads
North Carolina Rep. Ted Budd (R) vs. former Chief Justice of the North Carolina Supreme Court Cheri Beasley (D)
Budd is a Republican member of the House, so almost certainly a nutjob. But I never hear about him, so less than most? Maybe? Beasley fought the good fight and held back the NC GOP from the bench so that's good. Honestly don't know much about this race.
Current polling: Small Budd lead
Governors
Same color coding.
36 states will elect a governor. I don't know a ton of these details outside of my particular areas of interest.
The most important race is...
Pennsylvania AG Josh Shapiro (D) vs. state rep Doug Mastriano (R)
Mastriano is an insurrectionist who would work to overturn the popular vote in Pennsylvania to send its electoral votes the Republican candidate in 2024 if he is elected governor. He must be stopped. Shapiro leads, but it's closer than Fetterman/Oz.
Re-electing Tony Evers in Wisconsin also seems like a big deal. He leads against a bunch of shitty Republicans.
If you're a White House obsessive, Gretchen Whitmer is favored to win re-election and as a Michigan resident if she does she will run for president in 2028 (or '24 in the unlikely event Biden doesn't run). Same with JB Pritzker the surprisingly not shitty billionaire governor of Illinois. Whitmer in more danger than Pritzker (who will win, duh), but given the clown car that is the Michigan GOP getting half their candidates tossed off the ballot, she's now favored to win (over 50% against everybody). Gavin Newsom of California probably also has his eye on the big chair and will cruise to re-election.
State legislatures
No helpful map, but these are super important too, if they're allowed to be competitive anyway. I know that Michigan's independent redistricting process is giving Democrats their best shot to take the state legislature in my lifetime. In a light blue state! Fucked up. Other states (WISCONSIN) are gerrymandered so severely Democrats need like 2/3 of the statewide vote to eke out a bare majority of the legislature, so yeah. If you want to highlight your state legislative election or particular candidates, go ahead.
Ballot initiatives
First big one is in Kansas during their primary (August 2). Banning abortion currently leads 47-43, but it's close.
In the wake of Dobbs there will be a lot of abortion related initiatives. These tend to do better for the pro-choice side than having it be legislative. I know it's on the ballot here in Michigan.
A number of states are considering measures that would require 60% majorities for ballot initiatives that amend the constitution (Florida has this already, IIRC).
Bunch of states also considering removing the "Slavery is OK as punishment for crimes" clause from their constitutions.
Connecticut might enable early voting (the northeast, always shockingly bad at election reform)
Illinois might create a constitutional right to bargain collectively.
Maryland could legalize marijuana.
Nevada could increase the minimum wage and add a broad equal rights amendment to their constitution (race, color, creed, sex, gender identity, age, disability, ancestry, national origin mentioned)
South Dakota also considering legalizing marijuana
Thread Notes
Be nice to the mods and don't make this yet another rehash of the DEMOCRATS ARE USELESS vs. NO THEY'RE NOT argument. Debates in the very specific context of individual primaries outstanding are fine, but let's leave this is as mostly a news thread and a thread where we can post sick Fetterman burns of Mehmet Oz.
At stake: just you know, American democracy and stuff, no biggy. More concretely: abortion rights, climate legislation, gay marriage (maybe? that bill might actually pass this Congress), court appointments, better health care, Joe Biden's entire theoretical agenda from 2021, the continued operation of the January 6 Committee, preventing all the dumb bullshit the GOP wants to talk about in 2024 from muddying the waters (Hunter Biden, Antifa caused 1/6, etc etc etc), AND MAKING JOE MANCHIN FUCKING IRRELEVANT.
As always, every representative is up. Generic ballot has moved towards the Democrats in the wake of Dobbs and the other nuttiness from the Supreme Court at the end of June and possibly also with the January 6 hearings, which started around the same time. Average is something like D+4 at the moment...which might be enough to retain the House. It'd be a squeaker if the election were today. Individual House races are rarely worth talking about, especially because there are only something like 75 competitive House seats in the whole country (if that) due to gerrymandering. There are some primaries of interest though and obviously we can talk about them.
Senate map. Dark blue = retiring Democrat, dark red = retiring Republican, light blue is incumbent Democrat running for re-election, pink is incumbent Republican.
Current status: 50-50 split, with Harris breaking ties...if Democrats can get Manchin/Sinema and there's no filibuster. This is OK for appointments and not functional for legislation. Promise from most Democrats is to nuke the filibuster (or at least establish carveouts like they did for the debt ceiling) if they get 50 votes in favor, which is to say a 52-48 margin. D+2 seats is the goal here.
The races to watch (in arbitrary order):
The Big Five:
Pennsylvania: John Fetterman (D, Lt. Governor) vs. Mehmet Oz (R, New Jersey resident, respected surgeon turned TV quack)
This is the seat being vacated by retiring Republican Pat Toomey. Pennsylvania is by default a Democratic lean and Fetterman has spent the time since his stroke just before the primary absolutely clowning on Oz at every possible opportunity. Mostly for being a tourist and not actually a Pennsylvania resident. But also for being a rich out of touch asshole while Fetterman is a born and raised Pennsylvanian who cares about the people there. He is also very insistent about wanting to be the vote that nukes the filibuster and makes Joe Manchin irrelevant.
Current polling: Clear Fetterman lead
Georgia: Senator Raphael Warnock (D - still weird to say) vs. Herschel Walker (R, former NFL and more importantly UGA star)
This would be the most depressing loss and mean that candidate quality just isn't important at all anymore. Warnock is one of the better Democratic candidates in recent memory in a state that is starting to trend towards being a swing state. Walker is, well a former football star who took a few too many blows to the head to put it lightly. He's unstable, routinely threatens violence, has several secret children he barely acknowledges or supports, cannot speak ten words without saying something nonsensical, etc. Basically imagine if Trump had severe CTE.
Current polling: Tied, maybe slight Warnock lead? It's close. At least on average, there was one big Warnock lead but looks like an outlier.
Arizona: Senator Mark Kelly (D, astronaut) vs. GOP Candidate TBD, primary August 2
The other hard to defend Democratic seat. Leading GOP candidate is Blake Masters, a fascist election denier extremely well funded by Peter Thiel. He leads Mark Brnovich by about 10 points. Brnovich is more a standard Republican extremist, not an outright fascist like Masters. Naturally he's probably doomed. Kelly is what you'd expect from a pink state Democrat. Not a firebrand leftist, but much more loyal than his duplicitous colleague, Sinema.
Current general election polling: Kelly leads, but might be some consolidation on the GOP side once the primary ends
Nevada: Senator Catherine Cortez Masto (D) vs. Adam Laxalt (R, former Nevada AG)
She's solid, he sucks, he's lost a bunch of statewide elections but won one once!
Current polling: Masto leads but not by much; Nevada is also notoriously difficult to poll and the Reid Machine usually comes through. I assume it still exists even though he's passed.
Wisconsin: Senator Ron Johnson (R, should be indicted for fake elector things but won't be) vs. Democrat TBD, primary August 9
The state's lieutenant governor, Mandela Barnes, has led every primary poll, but there were still a TON of undecideds as of the last public poll a month ago. He has the endorsements of a bunch of people across the Democratic Party (Clyburn AND AOC, for example) He's towards the left end of the party (voted for Sanders in 2016 and 2020, supports M4A, etc.) Also a filibuster opponent. Main competition is the state's treasurer, Sarah Godlewski. Also pretty liberal, but maybe a bit more towards the center of the party. A filibuster opponent. Probably get a good candidate out of it.
Current polling: there's almost none of it, but the Wisconsin gold standard of Marquette Law has both main Democrats up 2 over Johnson (pre-Dobbs)
Less likely to flip, but worth observing:
New Hampshire Senator Maggie Hassan vs. Republican TBD on September 13, but probably General Donald Bolduc
He's a conspiracy nut who thinks the 2020 election is rigged. But New Hampshire is fucking weird and not worth trusting.
Current polling: Hassan leads, but only by single digits
Ohio Author of Hillbilly Elegy JD Vance (R) vs. Rep. Tim Ryan (D)
Vance is a Trump convert funded by Thiel. Openly fascistic and awful. Also wrote a book about how much rural Ohioans suck and he hates his mom. Tim Ryan is a poor man's Sherrod Brown and we'll see if that can carry him to the Senate in a red state that only Sherrod Brown and Barack Obama can win statewide as a Democrat lately.
Current polling: consistently small Ryan lead, but I don't trust Ohio. /Michigander
Florida Senator Marco Rubio (R) vs. Rep. Val Demmings (D) (almost certainly, primary is August 23)
Speaking of states that are not trustworthy, it's Florida. Rubio is a spineless lickspittle, but has a reputation as a moderate and bright young star among the press. Still. Somehow. Demmings is good for a Florida Democrat, but that state party is a fucking mess.
Current polling: Rubio leads
North Carolina Rep. Ted Budd (R) vs. former Chief Justice of the North Carolina Supreme Court Cheri Beasley (D)
Budd is a Republican member of the House, so almost certainly a nutjob. But I never hear about him, so less than most? Maybe? Beasley fought the good fight and held back the NC GOP from the bench so that's good. Honestly don't know much about this race.
Current polling: Small Budd lead
Governors
Same color coding.
36 states will elect a governor. I don't know a ton of these details outside of my particular areas of interest.
The most important race is...
Pennsylvania AG Josh Shapiro (D) vs. state rep Doug Mastriano (R)
Mastriano is an insurrectionist who would work to overturn the popular vote in Pennsylvania to send its electoral votes the Republican candidate in 2024 if he is elected governor. He must be stopped. Shapiro leads, but it's closer than Fetterman/Oz.
Re-electing Tony Evers in Wisconsin also seems like a big deal. He leads against a bunch of shitty Republicans.
If you're a White House obsessive, Gretchen Whitmer is favored to win re-election and as a Michigan resident if she does she will run for president in 2028 (or '24 in the unlikely event Biden doesn't run). Same with JB Pritzker the surprisingly not shitty billionaire governor of Illinois. Whitmer in more danger than Pritzker (who will win, duh), but given the clown car that is the Michigan GOP getting half their candidates tossed off the ballot, she's now favored to win (over 50% against everybody). Gavin Newsom of California probably also has his eye on the big chair and will cruise to re-election.
State legislatures
No helpful map, but these are super important too, if they're allowed to be competitive anyway. I know that Michigan's independent redistricting process is giving Democrats their best shot to take the state legislature in my lifetime. In a light blue state! Fucked up. Other states (WISCONSIN) are gerrymandered so severely Democrats need like 2/3 of the statewide vote to eke out a bare majority of the legislature, so yeah. If you want to highlight your state legislative election or particular candidates, go ahead.
Ballot initiatives
First big one is in Kansas during their primary (August 2). Banning abortion currently leads 47-43, but it's close.
In the wake of Dobbs there will be a lot of abortion related initiatives. These tend to do better for the pro-choice side than having it be legislative. I know it's on the ballot here in Michigan.
A number of states are considering measures that would require 60% majorities for ballot initiatives that amend the constitution (Florida has this already, IIRC).
Bunch of states also considering removing the "Slavery is OK as punishment for crimes" clause from their constitutions.
Connecticut might enable early voting (the northeast, always shockingly bad at election reform)
Illinois might create a constitutional right to bargain collectively.
Maryland could legalize marijuana.
Nevada could increase the minimum wage and add a broad equal rights amendment to their constitution (race, color, creed, sex, gender identity, age, disability, ancestry, national origin mentioned)
South Dakota also considering legalizing marijuana
Thread Notes
Be nice to the mods and don't make this yet another rehash of the DEMOCRATS ARE USELESS vs. NO THEY'RE NOT argument. Debates in the very specific context of individual primaries outstanding are fine, but let's leave this is as mostly a news thread and a thread where we can post sick Fetterman burns of Mehmet Oz.
The idea that your vote is a moral statement about you or who you vote for is some backwards ass libertarian nonsense. Your vote is about society. Vote to protect the vulnerable.
ElJeffe on
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Just kidding I've been getting Senate/Governor adds in WI for at least 12 months now.
Nah Budd is a nutjob.
There’s starting to be more and more animosity in the NC Republican party between the mainstream establishment republicans that used to run things and the nutjobs that run things now, and this was reflected in the primary where a popular former governor lost (McCrory) but I don’t know if that will affect things enough for Beasley to eke out a win or if the old guard will hold their noses and vote Budd.
Eh, I'm more leaning towards it illustrating how bad Oz is as a candidate. Fetterman has some weak points a GOP ratfucker could have a field day with - the fact that an actual medical doctor cannot get traction on the issue of his opponent having a stroke really illustrates how piss poor a candidate Oz is.
Fetterman actually competing in the race also helps.
What medical doctor is running in the Pennsylvania Senate race? Did the Libertarians or Greens find someone?
Fetterman has the secret. He's normal. He's just a guy.
Ironic since last I saw hadn’t the Democratic Party spent more on Mastriano’s campaign than he has?
Fetterman news continues to be promising.
I think this is Sherrod Brown’s secret too fwiw
Its a big part of Sanders's and AOC's appeal too. Just be someone we might actually know.
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Fivethirtyeight has the dems at only a 15% chance of retaining, but they are basing it on a projected 5-6 point Republican lead in the popular vote. Which is reasonable when looking at Biden’s approval and the fundamentals of the election, but doesn’t seem to match the polling currently that well at all, which has democrats only down around 1.8% or so. If that holds then the house starts to look a lot more like a jump ball.
[ ] greater than zero
[ ] good
[ ] go home, BigEasy, you're drunk
I am actually only half joking. Is there a chance this happens?
Like if Mastriano wins in PA he's outright said they'll push for an abortion ban. If that doesn't drive turnout for the Dems nothing will.
One problem is that that 1.8% is still a likely Republican win. There are 226 Republican leaning seats (by Cook PVI), so Dems would need to outperform polls by several points. Not impossible by any means, but we need to be realistic. Another problem is that 1.8% number includes registered voters and even all adults. There's not enough generic ballot polls screened by likely voter to get a lot of info, and several of the ones that do exist come from right leaning sources, but overall they seem to be several points worse than registered voter or all adults.
I'm hanging my hopes on the Senate, where Republicans have once again shot themselves in the foot by nominating absolutely godawful candidates. They probably could've had a senate majority pretty much in the bag with better candidates.
In a world where we keep the House, we're probably having a pretty good day in the Senate. Definitely pickup PA, probably pickup WI, shouldn't have much of a problem defending our current seats and might even pickup some of OH/NC/FL. So I think that "AND" is almost superfluous.
Jealous Deva said above 538 currently has 15% chance of keeping the House, so I'm gonna say 15%.
I almost hope this fails because I think Democrats are learning the wrong lessons on their inability to get a governor elected in a solid blue state. They need to run better candidates and organize better, not hack the system and risk another Republican sociopath in a governor's mansion.
Also, gas prices have been trending down now that it's been long enough for new oil wells to come online, and that will likely drive down inflation as well, since core PCE is already softening and it's just food and energy driving headline rates.
That's basically 15% of nothing changes from today. There's months of potential news and fuckery that could change that.
Keeping the House is a definite long shot, but it's hard to say how long.
This has been the most infuriating thing to watch them pull this cycle.
First-term agenda completely shut down
Media frenzy over Afghanistan withdrawal
Highest inflation in 40 years
High gas prices
You’d normally look at that as the ingredients for the biggest red wave ever
They did it with Trump himself. You would have thought they learn something then, but no.
It would be lovely if some of the headlines going into the fall look this way on inflation. I don't expect miracles or actual making of hay by the Ds on this, but I would be ecstatic getting a little bit of tailwind.
Sherrod Browd is the senator multiple states need but unfortunately human cloning is not really a thing yet.
From a national media perspective, Oz's campaign is getting no traction and Fetterman is making news by trolling the shit out of him. Which means Oz has no chance to define Fetterman. Whatever he's saying, it's not getting out there.
I'm not sure what it looks like at the local/state level though.
One potential saving grace is that they seem to putting up even bigger dipshits than the dems.
Should have sent… a poet…
I don’t know how to respond to this, I have about 19 different hot takes
Yeah this and his wife’s screen shot of their 10-year old roasting Oz are going viral
That would require beltway consultants to actually be told or made to hit the road when they fail, rather than exist in a system that’s been designed to basically be a mix of pure grift and a very privileged social security system for politically connected fuckups.
The GOP primary has been called and they have a hard right Trump MAGA governor candidate Dan Cox.
Cox Helped arrange busses and transportation for the January 6 Coup attempt, and was at the capital that day, as well as supporting an abortion ban. Basically he's the worst piece of shit they could find.
The Dem primary is still not over, it is between Wes Moore, and Tom Perez. Wes Moore is the likely winner. He is charismatic, I like his message. He is not progressive enough for many though. Tom is a more experienced politician, secretary of labor under Obama, and various other positions, Moore was the CEO of a non profit, and was a captain in the Army.
Neither of their political positions is terrible. Moore is much more attractive. Which shouldn't matter, but in a general election the more attractive candidate wins statistically more frequently. And Moore is more attractive than Cox as well.
So it's likely going to be Wes Moore and Dan Cox.
Luckily Maryland tends to vote Democrat, and they have gerrymandered the state senate and house to such a degree that they can overrule any governor veto. Which they have done, several times. As a Marylander, I am very against Dan Cox.
Right now, If the House is D+4 nationally that's about what we need for a toss up election in terms of controlling the body. With polling as it stands right this moment, I think the most likely outcome in the Senate would be D+2. So maybe 1 in 4? Like I think it would be 50-50 if it today were election day, but it's about equally likely to trend in either direction.
The problem is that Dems are probably boosted by a post-Dobbs bump and I don't know if that will maintain itself or the American citizenry's typical attention span will kick in.
EDIT: Oh this also assumes that there isn't a partisan nonresponse bias or if it is it's been accounted for by polls.
EDIT2: It would help a lot if Biden could improve his approval ratings to just "bad" instead of "god awful." (probably by forgiving student loans and taking executive action on climate, since his approval with young people is absolutely atrocious, the olds actually like him OK)
538's ratings are forecasts. It's not meant to say "if the election were held today, there is a 15% chance the Dems hold the House." They're meant to say "given conditions like today's, 111 days before an election, there is a 15% chance the Dems hold the House." Uncertainty is baked in. If the election were held today, Dems would have an even lower chance. The reason Dems' chances are forecasted as high as they are is because 538 understands that conditions change, news happens, and they account for it.
Of course nobody can give a true number the way you can give blackjack odds. But betting markets have pretty similar odds right now, and both betting markets and 538 have been decently reliable historically.
Who is supposed to be in the picture with burnie?