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The Failing [Russian Invasion of Ukraine]
Cornucopiist
Registered User regular
Registered User regular
What happened?
There have been several phases:
Chronicle of a war foretold
In 2021, in summer, Putin decides to throttle the flow of gas into European reserves. This raised gas prices, but no-one was overtly concerned.
At about that time, or at least in the fall of 2021, both US intelligence and OSINT (Bellingcat) were aware that an invasion was being planned. Likely the source was discontent factions within the FSB.
Ukraine was informed, but fresh president Zelensky decided not to inform the general public, hoping to forestall panic and economic collapse.
As time went on, Putin started to show his cards in typical 'what are you going to do about it' stronk Russian fashion. He was both threathening Ukraine with consequences if they would continue to pursue Western alliances, and pretending the Russian army was merely setting up for the largest exercises anyone had ever seen since the cold war. Much was made of the absolute dominance of these forces.
Denial is a river in Ukraine
As Russian forces gathered, and the US started to publicly warn of an invasion, Zelensky continued his denial of the situation. The EU immediately fell to division. The Baltic states, openly accusing Russia of planning invasions across Europes as well as Ukraine, gathered a group of ex-Warsaw pact states. The industrialized western EU states swung between calls for diplomacy and outright denial of the situation. Moreover, the already high energy prices and the presence of political extremes long aligned with Russia, set many western Europeans to declaring a need to assuage Russian 'needs'.
Three days in february
A lot of things happened at the very last moment on the Russian side. Putin, who had been assured that the Ukrainian public would welcome liberating Russian troops, was informed that Zelensky had offered a deal involving non-alignment with NATO. Instead, he decided to push ahead, believing that a short invasion would be aided by bribed Ukrainian officials.
In a misguided version of OpsSec, however, he had failed to inform all the branches of the military of exactly what was about to happen. As a result, the initial invasion was amateur work. Some of the objectives were reached, notably in the Kherson area where the governor was bribed. But the attempts to take Kyiv, both by a daring paratrooper mission, covert assassin squads, and conventional forces driving in convoys at speed, failed miserably. Soldiers and police prepared for the victory parade were butchered in ambushes. The much-vaunted VDV elite troops were cut to ribbons. Zelensky managed to stay ahead in a cat-and-mouse game with Chechen assasins.
But much worse for Putin the Russian air force, likely not warned beforehand of the invasion, failed to achieve air supremacy.
Floundering
Especially around Kyiv, there followed a period where Ukraine dominated the battlefield, using guerilla tactics to ambush Russian forces, then artillery to take them out. Technical difficulties made Russian communications impossible except on open channels, and the Ukrainians rode circles around them.
In other areas, Russia suffered less, and even advanced.
Internationally, the US confirmed its stance on support to Ukraine, but few other nations believed that the country could hold against what all still thought was an absolute Russian superiority, both numerical and technical. Zelensky's request for sanctions against Russia initially fell on deaf ears and, notably, military help was ruled out by several EU member states. Germany was seen as the worst of these, especially after it blocked military help from other sides.
However, Ukraine managed to eject the various attacking prongs, including a group that had entrenched itself in the radioactive grounds of Chernobyl. The dark humor of the initial days where the world had been astounded by Russian ineptitude and Ukrainian successes came to an end when the war crimes in the liberated territories were revealed.
Azov and Mariupol
As Russia was making advances in the South, it encircled the city of Mariupol. Brutal bombardments killed many civilians, including the infamous bombing of the Mariupol theatre where civilians were hiding in the basement. Mariupol was also the headquarters of the infamous Azov batallion, known for being formed around a pre-war organisation with neo-nazi roots. Russia was not about to waste this opportunity to establish the narrative that had emerged from the early invasion; that they were there to liberate Russians from nazis.
But once more their ineptitude prolonged the battle, and the military forces present could withdraw to the Azov steelworks. They were besieged in soviet bunkers and basements under the sprawling industrial site. Daring helicopter flights brought some relief early on, but eventually they were forced to surrender. Russia, which had been deporting citizens from the wider area already, disappeared the soldiers. Those who survived the initial journey would later be kept in inhuman conditions, and a group would be burned alive while prisoners.
the NovoRussian dream sinks
From the beginning, it was clear that Putin wanted to created his vaunted Novo Russia, a stretch of land reaching along the sea of Azov shore, past the Crimean peninsula, across Odessa to transDniestria. Things did not go as planned. While taking Snake Island, a strategically important rock on the sea border with Romania, the radio message 'Russian war ship, go f*ck yourself' was sent by Ukr troops about to be overwhelmed. Taking Snake Island turned out to be the only accomplishment of a Russian Navy so dilapidated as to make the various Army groups seem exemplary elites. Amid rumors of mutiny, troop landing ships approached Odessa several times, only to return to their anchor stations. Eventually, one of the biggest troop carriers got badly damaged. Worse, the pride of the Black Sea navy, the Moskva rocket carrier, got sunk. The Russian navy was reduced to harassing civilian shipping and firing inaccurate long distance rocket strikes.
to be continued...
There have been several phases:
Chronicle of a war foretold
In 2021, in summer, Putin decides to throttle the flow of gas into European reserves. This raised gas prices, but no-one was overtly concerned.
At about that time, or at least in the fall of 2021, both US intelligence and OSINT (Bellingcat) were aware that an invasion was being planned. Likely the source was discontent factions within the FSB.
Ukraine was informed, but fresh president Zelensky decided not to inform the general public, hoping to forestall panic and economic collapse.
As time went on, Putin started to show his cards in typical 'what are you going to do about it' stronk Russian fashion. He was both threathening Ukraine with consequences if they would continue to pursue Western alliances, and pretending the Russian army was merely setting up for the largest exercises anyone had ever seen since the cold war. Much was made of the absolute dominance of these forces.
Denial is a river in Ukraine
As Russian forces gathered, and the US started to publicly warn of an invasion, Zelensky continued his denial of the situation. The EU immediately fell to division. The Baltic states, openly accusing Russia of planning invasions across Europes as well as Ukraine, gathered a group of ex-Warsaw pact states. The industrialized western EU states swung between calls for diplomacy and outright denial of the situation. Moreover, the already high energy prices and the presence of political extremes long aligned with Russia, set many western Europeans to declaring a need to assuage Russian 'needs'.
Three days in february
A lot of things happened at the very last moment on the Russian side. Putin, who had been assured that the Ukrainian public would welcome liberating Russian troops, was informed that Zelensky had offered a deal involving non-alignment with NATO. Instead, he decided to push ahead, believing that a short invasion would be aided by bribed Ukrainian officials.
In a misguided version of OpsSec, however, he had failed to inform all the branches of the military of exactly what was about to happen. As a result, the initial invasion was amateur work. Some of the objectives were reached, notably in the Kherson area where the governor was bribed. But the attempts to take Kyiv, both by a daring paratrooper mission, covert assassin squads, and conventional forces driving in convoys at speed, failed miserably. Soldiers and police prepared for the victory parade were butchered in ambushes. The much-vaunted VDV elite troops were cut to ribbons. Zelensky managed to stay ahead in a cat-and-mouse game with Chechen assasins.
But much worse for Putin the Russian air force, likely not warned beforehand of the invasion, failed to achieve air supremacy.
Floundering
Especially around Kyiv, there followed a period where Ukraine dominated the battlefield, using guerilla tactics to ambush Russian forces, then artillery to take them out. Technical difficulties made Russian communications impossible except on open channels, and the Ukrainians rode circles around them.
In other areas, Russia suffered less, and even advanced.
Internationally, the US confirmed its stance on support to Ukraine, but few other nations believed that the country could hold against what all still thought was an absolute Russian superiority, both numerical and technical. Zelensky's request for sanctions against Russia initially fell on deaf ears and, notably, military help was ruled out by several EU member states. Germany was seen as the worst of these, especially after it blocked military help from other sides.
However, Ukraine managed to eject the various attacking prongs, including a group that had entrenched itself in the radioactive grounds of Chernobyl. The dark humor of the initial days where the world had been astounded by Russian ineptitude and Ukrainian successes came to an end when the war crimes in the liberated territories were revealed.
Azov and Mariupol
As Russia was making advances in the South, it encircled the city of Mariupol. Brutal bombardments killed many civilians, including the infamous bombing of the Mariupol theatre where civilians were hiding in the basement. Mariupol was also the headquarters of the infamous Azov batallion, known for being formed around a pre-war organisation with neo-nazi roots. Russia was not about to waste this opportunity to establish the narrative that had emerged from the early invasion; that they were there to liberate Russians from nazis.
But once more their ineptitude prolonged the battle, and the military forces present could withdraw to the Azov steelworks. They were besieged in soviet bunkers and basements under the sprawling industrial site. Daring helicopter flights brought some relief early on, but eventually they were forced to surrender. Russia, which had been deporting citizens from the wider area already, disappeared the soldiers. Those who survived the initial journey would later be kept in inhuman conditions, and a group would be burned alive while prisoners.
the NovoRussian dream sinks
From the beginning, it was clear that Putin wanted to created his vaunted Novo Russia, a stretch of land reaching along the sea of Azov shore, past the Crimean peninsula, across Odessa to transDniestria. Things did not go as planned. While taking Snake Island, a strategically important rock on the sea border with Romania, the radio message 'Russian war ship, go f*ck yourself' was sent by Ukr troops about to be overwhelmed. Taking Snake Island turned out to be the only accomplishment of a Russian Navy so dilapidated as to make the various Army groups seem exemplary elites. Amid rumors of mutiny, troop landing ships approached Odessa several times, only to return to their anchor stations. Eventually, one of the biggest troop carriers got badly damaged. Worse, the pride of the Black Sea navy, the Moskva rocket carrier, got sunk. The Russian navy was reduced to harassing civilian shipping and firing inaccurate long distance rocket strikes.
to be continued...
Echo on
+36
This discussion has been closed.
Posts
red storm rising
predictably, ending the siege of Mariupol freed up troops to be applied elsewhere. Along with Russia sorting out their logistics chains (which likely had never been informed a proper war would be on) this allowed Russia to go on the offensive from the Donbass and Luhansk areas. The defences they would be attacking were among the strongest Ukraine had built up in hilly terrain, line up on line of deep trenches. The Russians didn't care; because finally, they could apply the one thing they were good at; massed artillery bombardments. It likely took hundreds of shells for every Ukrainian killed or driven back, but Russia just kept on firing, and slowly advancing. As Russia captured and passed Izium, it seems they were exhausted, and took a break to regroup.
The West seeing red
However, time was not on Russia's side. The US and UK were ramping up their military support, and the EU was finally starting to move where the Baltics wanted it. Eu sanctions were being created and applied in addition to those the US had set, and there were signs that Russia was suffering economically. But more importantly, cut off from Western technology, Russia was losing its industrial capacity. Though by no means sufficient or quick, this put a deadline on Russia's plans. And very importantly, despite Western fears, China showed little interest in stepping in to materially assist Russia. However, despite clearly not wanting to completely alienate its remaining EU friends, Russia reduced the flow of gas to Europe further. This created astronomical gas prices worldwide but especially in Europe. All related politics were amped up to 11...
The final countdown
With both sides exhausted from the slow but deadly Russian advance in Luhansk, it appeared a stalemate had been reached. But Ukraine was dropping hints. With the increasing supply of western military aid and Ukr personnel trained on it, they were planning something big for the summer. And as the summer wore on, Zelensky very publicly announced that he would be liberating Kherson. (Thanks Maraji)
A gambit worthy of an eight-year old child with cookie crumbles on its lips? Perhaps, but grand master of strategy Putin fell for it, and dispatched reserves and active personnel from the Eastern front to Kherson. These were promptly cut off from the rest of the front by Ukrainian long range attacks bridges over the Dniepr. As the attacks north of Kherson started, Zelensky requested and mostly got an information blackout...
Slava Ukraina
As many people had expected, without knowing the particulars, Ukraine struck elsewhere. What probably no-one had expected was how effectives those strikes were. Wether you attribute the success to NATO-style manouvre warfare, the absolute clownshow that is the supposed Russian army, or, more rightly, the Ukrainian courage and determination, is up to you. Likely it was all of the above, and Ukraine within a week and a half managed to liberate over eight thousand square kilometers. They have captured hundreds of Russian vehicles and may have captured thousands of Russian soldiers. As the fog of war, and the media blackout, continues, it's hard to estimate exactly how far they've gone. But today, Zelensky visited Izium and this is where this thread picks up
Takeaways
But even so, a few things can be said about this war without going into details.
Reach out and touch faith
This is a war of drones and short range missiles. Drones have given both sides far vision, with an initial and perhaps lasting advantage for the UKR forces. Stingers, Javelins and other missiles have allowed infantry to wreak havoc at distances out to a mile, and have made Russian close air support a non-starter. Advanced artillery through jerry-rigged IT systems, western precision ammunition and the use of HIMARS have given UKR artillery a reach that makes the Russian area saturation tactics seem primeval.
Death cult
It is clear that Russia will never recover from this war. Its economy will be in tatters until far past the point where global warming measures will cut off their fossil fuel incomes. Politically, the FSB-predicted shift to a North Korean system is well underway. And the Russian military has lost half of its supposed capacity, which in reality may mean there's nothing left.
At various stages, Putin has been openly offered the chance to stand down. An option he, as supreme leader, could exert at any point. But at key points where any other leader would have realized they were throwing good money after bad money, Putin doubled down. And yet, it seems, he retains the support of believers both internationally and at home. Any line drawn along points on a graph mapping losses (of military equipment, personnel, economic prowess, anything really, would soon come to hit the bottom of the graph. Reasonably, one can expect that Putin intends to perform a 'controlled flight into terrain'.
Appeasers or Quislings
And yet, internationally, Putin-understanders persist. Germany has long been singled out as the worst offender (alongside Hungary, which is of little effect). Others persist in pursuing diplomacy where clearly communication fails at a basic level. But more broadly, there's a deep schism between a majority of the EU public that supports Ukraine and the Ukrainian refugees wholeheartedly, and those who feel rising gas prices are reason enough to withdraw help from Ukraine and 'let nature take its course'. The rift matches the refugee 'crisis' and covid-sceptics groupings we all knew were at least partially shaped by Russian agitprop, and it may well persist after Putin meets his eventual end.
TLDR: Fuck Putin. Slava Ukraina!
Can I stop living in interesting times now? I think I'll take a decade or two of boredom after the 2020s.
Though I don' think we're out of the interesting woods yet, is it worth adding the other actions of the post-soviet republics to this thread or resurrect the old one for Georgia and Armenia?
https://siderea.dreamwidth.org/1757108.html
(posted in the early days of this war, remembered now. Small excerpt below.)
American democracy is still teetering dangerously, Russia still has nukes, climate is getting worse… I wouldn’t really plan any uninterrupted months of boredom for another few decades at least, sorry.
Between that, Kyrgyzstan/Tajikistan, Transnistria, and the CTSO all starting to unravel as a result of the war in general and probably the last week in particular, I wonder if there's much of a point in separating them..
Can post this Al-Jazeera article. This is a career soldier (not the conscripts from later) from the start of the invasion confirming what everybody suspected: Putin just sent everybody to the frontlines without telling them anything: Later:
Stories like this are starting to trickle down from captured soldiers, who were completely surprised at, well, all of this.
@Fiendishrabbit you said this in the last page of the old thread, and I wanted to ask since my knowledge of military things is… poor at best.
What does being a “parade division” mean practically in terms of comparison to other units? Like my head is reading it as like… being the equivalent of the Harlem Globetrotters. Which can’t be correct (although in Russia’s case who knows)
Just to clarify, nothing special is going on in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. They don't have a well defined border, so angry border guards bump into each other all the time, and every now and then exchange shots. There have already been a couple of clashes with fatalities this year. They've been kinda-sorta on the verge of war for years, but they've navigated all previous incidents and it sounds as if they're navigating this one as well.
It's been "interesting times" since at least 2016 and I don't see it stopping any time soon. It's been absolutely exhausting.
And then, not long after the hard work of many made Y2K a fizzle...
And again, fifteen years later, just when we thought we'd gotten (almost) everything sorted out and back on the right track...
It's means that there is a lot of spit and polish, they look nice and are well equipped&supplied, but lacking in terms of leadership and battlefield experience. Ie, they're very nice for a military parade.
-Antje Jackelén, Archbishop of the Church of Sweden
Remember that meme where anthropomorphized years got progressively mangled and scary-dangerous looking?
Tweeter is an osint account. That would mean the end of the CSTO...
Zelenskiy official Telegram account claiming Russian forces attempted to flood the city of Kryvyi Rih by way of missile strikes on hydrotechnical facilities
Radio Free Europe is reporting a story from the Tajik news service that Russia has pulled up to 1500 soldiers from the country to send them to Ukraine.
https://news.yahoo.com/kremlin-tries-buy-ammunition-soviet-093600844.html
And this one from Ukrainian Pravda, Russia tried to buy old Soviet ammunition from Tajikistan.
And of course as we covered in the last thread, hostilities have flared on the Tajikistan Kyrgyzstan border.
Aside from internal stability, Russia is squandering it's whole sphere of influence on its war with Ukraine. This is two regional conflicts that were frozen by Russian presence that have flared up in recent days because Russia was no longer present in a credible force.
The way to answer this is to give the Ukrainians what they need to do this in Russia and take out the airbases and navel assets that are launching the missiles.
Just because our side did it during a war where atrocities were committed all over the place by both sides doesn't mean it's ok. FWIW, if it's just done to target civilians, it's yet another war crime.
Guess what got added to the war crimes list after WW2 for that reason.
Is there a discernable military target here? Or even a second-hand one?
This means that a lot of central Asia is suddenly, well let's say in flux. This could very easily turn into a China vs India conflict of any temperature between cool and hot. Or China and India could come to an understanding... but both are currently led by right wing nationalist jerkwad shitbags think that they're the king shit of fuck mountain and ethnic destiny something something.
As this situation, the magnitude of Putin's folly just exponentiates. It was a bad idea a minute after it started and it has got worse, for everyone, since it started. There will be some silver linings to the cloud but christ on a bike if the Culture is watching, guys, it's Intervention time.
Its not the town Russia was focused on its the Inhulets river. Ukraine has a number of pontoon bridges over the river and have a hotly contested bridgehead into Russian territorty.
Cracking the dam has flooded the river and swept away the pontoons. The advance Ukraine forces are now cut off.
I made a game, it has penguins in it. It's pay what you like on Gumroad.
Currently Ebaying Nothing at all but I might do in the future.
That secret military base where Stryker made Wolverine?
Sources? This is literally the first I've seen this claim of the strikes putting UA advance in peril.
Kryvyi Rih is one of the most important industrial cities in Ukraine, metallurgy being the big one (producing the majority of Ukraines steel and iron). Big mining and mechanical industry as well, as well as textiles and a number of other businesses. Primarily for export, but also supplying industries in Charkiv, Odesa and Lviv.
-Antje Jackelén, Archbishop of the Church of Sweden
pleasepaypreacher.net
Yeah, that's what I could find as well. I'm not seeing any kind of "they are building shells for the war effort" or anything. So it seems mostly like it's an attack to make civilians suffer.
It is supposition on my part but the river has raised over 3 metres in a matter of hours. There have been plenty of visuals of the pontoon bridges that are being used and there's no way they are useable in that kind of rise when permanent foot bridges are being swept away.
I made a game, it has penguins in it. It's pay what you like on Gumroad.
Currently Ebaying Nothing at all but I might do in the future.
So entirely unsourced speculation. Got it.
And pontoon bridges float so the water level rising just rises the bridges. Assuming UA is even depending on pontoon bridges downstream.
Edit - that came out shittier than I meant, phone posting but while not ideal a rise over a few hours won't necessarily sweep a pontoon bridge like it will a fixed rigid bridge because the pontoon bridge moves.
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/9/14/2122872/-Ukraine-update-Russia-attacks-dam-at-Kryvyi-Rih-in-attempt-to-flood-Kherson-Oblast
Daily kos isn't exactly a premier newssite, but they are citing Oleksiy Arestovych (former UA intelligence officer and now one of the advisors to Zelensky on military issues).
-Antje Jackelén, Archbishop of the Church of Sweden
I mean from that link second paragraph.
So it was a massive disaster except it wasn't?
pleasepaypreacher.net
The kind of increase in flow that lifts a river over 3 meters can take out many types of permanent bridges, and pontoon bridges have much greater water resistance than a bridge pillar. So it's not a matter of water just increasing in height, it's a matter of increased stress on support structures.
So you're wrong. It will probably sweep away any pontoon bridge entirely if the water rises that much. If UA is lucky at least some of those bridges will be salvagable.
-Antje Jackelén, Archbishop of the Church of Sweden