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Impotent Russia's attacks on civil targets in the [Ukraine war]
Cornucopiist
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Registered User regular
apparently in response to an attack on the Kerch Bridge on the 8th of October, Putin has ordered massive attacks on Ukrainian cities on a scale not seen yet. Though Russia has never stopped attacking cities, the coordination of this attack is unseen and may indicate an escalation of Russian terrorism.
(If, that is, they have the means to continue the attacks, which are ongoing as I write this).
Liveuamap overview of this morning' bombings. Not that these are very far from the front, and in the case of Lviv quite close to NATO member Poland.
There are lots of videos from the strikes, this is one I found poignant. Spoiled for the sheer terror of a civilian who had a lucky escape.
The Ukrainian armed forces claim 75 rockets were launched but that 41 of them were neutralized by their air defense.
The Ukraininian government has indicated they're expecting Putin to offer some sort of ultimatum.
(If, that is, they have the means to continue the attacks, which are ongoing as I write this).
Liveuamap overview of this morning' bombings. Not that these are very far from the front, and in the case of Lviv quite close to NATO member Poland.
There are lots of videos from the strikes, this is one I found poignant. Spoiled for the sheer terror of a civilian who had a lucky escape.
The Ukrainian armed forces claim 75 rockets were launched but that 41 of them were neutralized by their air defense.
The Ukraininian government has indicated they're expecting Putin to offer some sort of ultimatum.
A duck! on
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There have been several phases:
Chronicle of a war foretold
In 2021, in summer, Putin decides to throttle the flow of gas into European reserves. This raised gas prices, but no-one was overtly concerned.
At about that time, or at least in the fall of 2021, both US intelligence and OSINT (Bellingcat) were aware that an invasion was being planned. Likely the source was discontent factions within the FSB.
Ukraine was informed, but fresh president Zelensky decided not to inform the general public, hoping to forestall panic and economic collapse.
As time went on, Putin started to show his cards in typical 'what are you going to do about it' stronk Russian fashion. He was both threathening Ukraine with consequences if they would continue to pursue Western alliances, and pretending the Russian army was merely setting up for the largest exercises anyone had ever seen since the cold war. Much was made of the absolute dominance of these forces.
Denial is a river in Ukraine
As Russian forces gathered, and the US started to publicly warn of an invasion, Zelensky continued his denial of the situation. The EU immediately fell to division. The Baltic states, openly accusing Russia of planning invasions across Europes as well as Ukraine, gathered a group of ex-Warsaw pact states. The industrialized western EU states swung between calls for diplomacy and outright denial of the situation. Moreover, the already high energy prices and the presence of political extremes long aligned with Russia, set many western Europeans to declaring a need to assuage Russian 'needs'.
Three days in february
A lot of things happened at the very last moment on the Russian side. Putin, who had been assured that the Ukrainian public would welcome liberating Russian troops, was informed that Zelensky had offered a deal involving non-alignment with NATO. Instead, he decided to push ahead, believing that a short invasion would be aided by bribed Ukrainian officials.
In a misguided version of OpsSec, however, he had failed to inform all the branches of the military of exactly what was about to happen. As a result, the initial invasion was amateur work. Some of the objectives were reached, notably in the Kherson area where the governor was bribed. But the attempts to take Kyiv, both by a daring paratrooper mission, covert assassin squads, and conventional forces driving in convoys at speed, failed miserably. Soldiers and police prepared for the victory parade were butchered in ambushes. The much-vaunted VDV elite troops were cut to ribbons. Zelensky managed to stay ahead in a cat-and-mouse game with Chechen assasins.
But much worse for Putin the Russian air force, likely not warned beforehand of the invasion, failed to achieve air supremacy.
Floundering
Especially around Kyiv, there followed a period where Ukraine dominated the battlefield, using guerilla tactics to ambush Russian forces, then artillery to take them out. Technical difficulties made Russian communications impossible except on open channels, and the Ukrainians rode circles around them.
In other areas, Russia suffered less, and even advanced.
Internationally, the US confirmed its stance on support to Ukraine, but few other nations believed that the country could hold against what all still thought was an absolute Russian superiority, both numerical and technical. Zelensky's request for sanctions against Russia initially fell on deaf ears and, notably, military help was ruled out by several EU member states. Germany was seen as the worst of these, especially after it blocked military help from other sides.
However, Ukraine managed to eject the various attacking prongs, including a group that had entrenched itself in the radioactive grounds of Chernobyl. The dark humor of the initial days where the world had been astounded by Russian ineptitude and Ukrainian successes came to an end when the war crimes in the liberated territories were revealed.
Azov and Mariupol
As Russia was making advances in the South, it encircled the city of Mariupol. Brutal bombardments killed many civilians, including the infamous bombing of the Mariupol theatre where civilians were hiding in the basement. Mariupol was also the headquarters of the infamous Azov batallion, known for being formed around a pre-war organisation with neo-nazi roots. Russia was not about to waste this opportunity to establish the narrative that had emerged from the early invasion; that they were there to liberate Russians from nazis.
But once more their ineptitude prolonged the battle, and the military forces present could withdraw to the Azov steelworks. They were besieged in soviet bunkers and basements under the sprawling industrial site. Daring helicopter flights brought some relief early on, but eventually they were forced to surrender. Russia, which had been deporting citizens from the wider area already, disappeared the soldiers. Those who survived the initial journey would later be kept in inhuman conditions, and a group would be burned alive while prisoners.
the NovoRussian dream sinks
From the beginning, it was clear that Putin wanted to created his vaunted Novo Russia, a stretch of land reaching along the sea of Azov shore, past the Crimean peninsula, across Odessa to transDniestria. Things did not go as planned. While taking Snake Island, a strategically important rock on the sea border with Romania, the radio message 'Russian war ship, go f*ck yourself' was sent by Ukr troops about to be overwhelmed. Taking Snake Island turned out to be the only accomplishment of a Russian Navy so dilapidated as to make the various Army groups seem exemplary elites. Amid rumors of mutiny, troop landing ships approached Odessa several times, only to return to their anchor stations. Eventually, one of the biggest troop carriers got badly damaged. Worse, the pride of the Black Sea navy, the Moskva rocket carrier, got sunk. The Russian navy was reduced to harassing civilian shipping and firing inaccurate long distance rocket strikes.
predictably, ending the siege of Mariupol freed up troops to be applied elsewhere. Along with Russia sorting out their logistics chains (which likely had never been informed a proper war would be on) this allowed Russia to go on the offensive from the Donbass and Luhansk areas. The defences they would be attacking were among the strongest Ukraine had built up in hilly terrain, line up on line of deep trenches. The Russians didn't care; because finally, they could apply the one thing they were good at; massed artillery bombardments. It likely took hundreds of shells for every Ukrainian killed or driven back, but Russia just kept on firing, and slowly advancing. As Russia captured and passed Izium, it seems they were exhausted, and took a break to regroup.
The West seeing red
However, time was not on Russia's side. The US and UK were ramping up their military support, and the EU was finally starting to move where the Baltics wanted it. Eu sanctions were being created and applied in addition to those the US had set, and there were signs that Russia was suffering economically. But more importantly, cut off from Western technology, Russia was losing its industrial capacity. Though by no means sufficient or quick, this put a deadline on Russia's plans. And very importantly, despite Western fears, China showed little interest in stepping in to materially assist Russia. However, despite clearly not wanting to completely alienate its remaining EU friends, Russia reduced the flow of gas to Europe further. This created astronomical gas prices worldwide but especially in Europe. All related politics were amped up to 11...
The final countdown
With both sides exhausted from the slow but deadly Russian advance in Luhansk, it appeared a stalemate had been reached. But Ukraine was dropping hints. With the increasing supply of western military aid and Ukr personnel trained on it, they were planning something big for the summer. And as the summer wore on, Zelensky very publicly announced that he would be liberating Kherson. (Thanks Maraji)
A gambit worthy of an eight-year old child with cookie crumbles on its lips? Perhaps, but grand master of strategy Putin fell for it, and dispatched reserves and active personnel from the Eastern front to Kherson. These were promptly cut off from the rest of the front by Ukrainian long range attacks bridges over the Dniepr. As the attacks north of Kherson started, Zelensky requested and mostly got an information blackout...
Slava Ukraina
As many people had expected, without knowing the particulars, Ukraine struck elsewhere. What probably no-one had expected was how effectives those strikes were. Wether you attribute the success to NATO-style manouvre warfare, the absolute clownshow that is the supposed Russian army, or, more rightly, the Ukrainian courage and determination, is up to you. Likely it was all of the above, and Ukraine within a week and a half managed to liberate over eight thousand square kilometers. They have captured hundreds of Russian vehicles and may have captured thousands of Russian soldiers. As the fog of war, and the media blackout, continues, it's hard to estimate exactly how far they've gone. But today, Zelensky visited Izium and this is where this thread picks up
Abridged history continued:
Izium and Lyman
Ukraine's expedient tactics saw swift advances from the Kharkiv region into the north of Donetsk during the whole of September. Twice, Russian forces were cut off and forced to surrender or fight to the end. This has brought thousands of square kilometers of Ukrainian territory back under its control. The northern front takes advantage of the south-running rivers and wetlands.
Mobilisation
In response to the losses suffered in Donetsk, Putin ordered and got a large-scale mobilisation. The mobilisation was a shambles, with many recorded cases of people called up who where too old to fight, too sick, or both. They have been shown to be improperly equipped and given little to no training. Some appeared at the front less than a week after their being called up.
Rubberstamping the occupation
After a lot of back and forth, Putin pushed for illegitimate 'referenda' on accession to Russia in four partially occupied regions. The international community widely condemned these sham 'referenda', and this exposed how little support Russia still has. The reason for the referenda might have been to legitimise the use of mobilised soldiers outside of the territory of Russia, by making the front line Russia in Russian law.
Kherson
The pocket of Russian forces trapped on the wrong side of the Dniepr proved a hard nut to crack, but a single breakthrough was exploited to great success. Though not comparable to the advances in the north, the breakthrough in early October proved that Ukraine could not be counted out even on stalled fronts against heavily entrenched Russians.
PSN: Bizazedo
CFN: Bizazedo (I don't think I suck, add me).
A. Play. Ground.
My rage is rather speechless at the moment.
Democrats Abroad! || Vote From Abroad
and yet
and yet!
they see no problem when they attack Ukraine, destroy its schools, hospitals, playrounds and kill innocent people, thinking that everyone other than them is a weak decadent westerner, even if last 8 months not even once proved this hypothesis at any point
cruelty is a point, but its also fucking idiotic
Weeeellll....
They all already live in a system where bad things happen to people who don't go along. It's a logic they understand. Ask if they would resist if Putin sent in bombers to get rid of demonstrators or dissidents in st.Petersburg, and Moscovites would probably dissemble- but never step up. They'd side with the boot that's kicking them.
Saw this elsewhere, waited for the official channel. Recap: Belarus had some weird shenanigans during this conflict as Russian commanders commandeered Belarussian bases. We've seen unexplained explosions and heard rumors of mutiny.
Lukashenko (who is always ready for a coup or assassination attempt and never takes his watchful eye off either his military or his version of Rosgvardia) was called to Moscow several times to straighten out his attitude, and never completely caved.
But also he's right next door to Poland and whereas Belarusian National Guard serves to beat up protestors and pacify the country, it seems Lukashenko wasn't ready to completely abandon the bases there to send materiel south to Ukraine. Now, the message seems to talk about a joint command of bases on the western border.
I.e. it might just be another step in Putin's ongoing campaign to rob the Belarusian actual army of bases and gear.
Commander in chief of the Ukrainian armed forces is quoted that 75 missiles were launched this morning and that 41 of those have been intercepted.
I do appreciate the rather in sync turning off the 3 cars in frame with the very distinct impression of "yeah nah. Don't think so."
Uber impressed again with the driving skills of average Ukrainians.
Also...
Fucking hell.
Fuck Putin
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Didn't even work with us decadent westerners either. Switching from millitary targets to blitzing London lost the Germans the battle of Britain. They were on the verge of destroying the RAF and decided to start blowing up civilian homes full of people who had no direct contribution to the war effort. That just gave the RAF the breathing room to regroup, rearm and go on to win. We learned 80 years ago that terror bombing not only doesn't work it's actually counter productive.
Russia just wasted a bunch of its diminishing supply of long range missiles killing people who posed no military threat to them at all. Meanwhile the Ukrainians on the front line continue to push them back. Seems like a bunch of missiles fired at them rather than a few blocks of flats might have slowed them down at least a little but hey, what do I know? I don't do judo or ride bears or anything.
Send Ukraine MBTs already, fuck. Hundreds. Please.
Tweeter is a Berlin based expert in eastern Europe and a former director of a German NGO
Those Russian missiles might be so shit that they can only aim them in the general direction of their target.
Now imagine if Ukraine had more decent air defense capability
Tweeter is an eastern European media site
Or was it not *in* the embassy and therefore isn't technically German soil?
Because one of those is pretty oh shit.... And the other is slightly less oh shit
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Not the actual embassy. Just an office in the business tower the embassy used. According to the German ambassador to Ukraine they hadn't had any personnel there since February.
Eh, there's no point in denying that the Russians do have precision missiles. What they don't have is the ability to produce them in Russia in large numbers without having to buy foreign tech which is a) sanctioned up the wazoo and b) difficult and expensive to obtain at all for anyone. Even if Russia can cobble together a string of middle men to get them microchips they're going to be paying 5000% more for them than anyone else would. Every single missile fired at a target whose destruction provides no tangible military gain is an irreplaceable loss.
Military divisions (which includes ballistic missile forces) generally don't operate on a base 10 system, instead operating in units of 3-6 launchers per battery (24 launchers is a typical number for a rocket brigade).
-Antje Jackelén, Archbishop of the Church of Sweden
a playground, for christ's sake
I'm a lot less understanding of those in Russia, too. And I was one of the ones not really caring how badly sanctions affected Russian civilians when this all kicked off, so my sympathy wasn't all that high to start.
Pretty sure we haven't gone to the full extent that we can with sanctions yet.
This is a thread for the war in Ukraine, the attacks were just literally happening as the thread was being created
Edit: IMO they reached the "state sponsor of terror" level all the way back in 2014, this goes far beyond that and the consequences should match.
Edit again: "Terrorist State" with even more sanctions and measures taken than SSOT sounds about right.
Resident 8bitdo expert.
Resident hybrid/flap cover expert.
Based on ISW assessments I've been reading the nationalists and milbloggers (whatever those are but apparently they represent a weirdly powerful vector of support in Russia) are some of the only people currently possessed of the stones necessary to criticize Putin directly. The thing is they are doing it because he's fucking up their glorious war not because they're opposed to it in any way shape or form. These missile strikes are like fucking kibble to them. They want more of it.
It's the same thing as the June bomb plot against Hitler. The nazis behind it didn't want to kill him because they knew the atrocities they committed on the eastern front were wrong, or that the death camps had to be stopped. They did it because he was a bumbling idiot who was getting in the way of their ability to effectively prosecute their imperialist war. They were fine with national socialism right up until it started not working and they started losing.
So right now it seems like the only voices of dissent in Russia that could potentially move the needle are coming from people who want to war crime harder. I have zero faith that even if Putin is deposed a moderate or sane person takes over and this de-escalates. Any palace coups would likely see him replaced with an even more ultranationalist nutjob.
The world needs to simply write Russia off the books for good. It now solely exists as a terrorist state and is looking less and less like it may even be a regional power after this. If they want to play on the world stage again then let them actually show they want to reform and do the work. If not, fuck em, let them play around with North Korea.
Wartranslated is an Estonian civilian who translates posts from other sources into English. In this case, he is translating a statement by the Ukrainian government.
"But supreme overlord and Judo god, won't that mean all our forces will be trapped in Crimea, like rats?"
"Yessss...."
PSN/Steam/NNID: SyphonBlue | BNet: SyphonBlue#1126
This puts the nail in the coffin of quibbles about escalation. There is no escalation in response. The warcriming is being pursued as hard as possible, and as I asserted in the previous thread, takes priority over lesser objectives like winning . The atrocities are the point.
And you know what, I was positively floored by the response of the Krimean governor. I was thinking 'how d*mned competent is this guy that he can get his act together so much in a couple of hours when our Belgian governments would take days or weeks?'.
Well, being told beforehand helps.