The new forums will be named Coin Return (based on the most recent vote)! You can check on the status and timeline of the transition to the new forums here.
The Guiding Principles and New Rules document is now in effect.
[Ukraine] Oh, HIMARS! A Thread on Russia's Illegal and Immoral Invasion
Inquisitor77
2 x Penny Arcade Fight Club ChampionA fixed point in space and timeRegistered User regular
2 x Penny Arcade Fight Club ChampionA fixed point in space and timeRegistered User regular
Thread Title Meme:
This thread is for discussion of the illegal and immoral Russian invasion of Ukraine, the latest large-scale action of a broader conflict that started in 2014 with Russia's "annexation" of Crimea.
Here is the previous OP for this thread: https://forums.penny-arcade.com/discussion/246157/russian-invasion-of-ukraine-mr-zelenskyy-goes-to-europe/p1
Courtesy of War Mapper, here is the latest map of the conflict as of 13 February 2023:
Currently, the war has seen little progress on either side over the winter. There are now signs that Russia is gearing up (or has already begun) an offensive to try to retake Bakhmut and the surrounding areas in the east.
See below for an interview with a Ukrainian in Kherson after the city's liberation:
===============================
Global Thermonuclear War:
Please note that while discussion of nuclear weapons and nuclear proliferation are inevitable, there does exist a G-ddamn Separate Thread for that topic.
Azov Nazis: Previous mod declarations have included not discussing the Azov Regiment in the context of it supposedly being a Neo-Nazi group, and a general call for decorum against personal attacks.
Fuck Putin: Acceptable topics include saying, "Fuck Putin!" and all permutations thereof, including just repeating the phrase "FuckPutinFuckPutinFuckPutinFuckPutinFuckPutinFuckPutinFuckPutin" ad infinitum (no promises you won't get banned for spam being too awesome, though).
Crazy P is Awesome: If you Awesome a post by CrazyP, it is assumed you are Awesome-ing the fact that CrazyP is alive and well, not that you are Awesome-ing the contents of his post. (CrazyP is a Russian forumer who currently resides in a place that is not Russia.)
News & Information: While the fog of war always exists and it is very difficult to verify all reports, there does exist a standard of credibility. Major, established news outlets such as The New York Times or Reuters are generally accepted sources. Independent journalists, open source intelligence analysts, and official government sources should be evaluated on a case-by-case basis. Blog posts from J. Random Dickbag should be avoided or placed in the correct speculative context. All news should be prefaced with the source and, where appropriate, caveated as unreliable or speculation. Niche or less well-known sources should have corresponding descriptions of their reliability and sourcing.
Please remember that many forumers visit this thread precisely because it typically eschews random internet speculation and propaganda talking points.
Gore and NSFW/NSFL Content: In addition, all content which shows gore, horrific injuries, corpses, mass graves, and similar themes must always be spoilered and tagged appropriately. Failure to do so in the past has resulted in moderator intervention. Inflicting trauma on other forumers is not cool. Please remember that this place is still considered PG-13.
Perun: Videos from Perun have proven to be a very good source of analysis for this war, particularly in the contexts of logistics and procurement. He has received the PA Thread Seal of Approval.
This thread is for discussion of the illegal and immoral Russian invasion of Ukraine, the latest large-scale action of a broader conflict that started in 2014 with Russia's "annexation" of Crimea.
Here is the previous OP for this thread: https://forums.penny-arcade.com/discussion/246157/russian-invasion-of-ukraine-mr-zelenskyy-goes-to-europe/p1
Courtesy of War Mapper, here is the latest map of the conflict as of 13 February 2023:
Currently, the war has seen little progress on either side over the winter. There are now signs that Russia is gearing up (or has already begun) an offensive to try to retake Bakhmut and the surrounding areas in the east.
See below for an interview with a Ukrainian in Kherson after the city's liberation:
Because now we have no electricity in the city, no water, no central supply heating, no mobile connection, no internet connection. But we have no Russians, and I am extremely happy of that! We can survive anything...but we are free!
===============================
Global Thermonuclear War:
Please note that while discussion of nuclear weapons and nuclear proliferation are inevitable, there does exist a G-ddamn Separate Thread for that topic.
Azov Nazis: Previous mod declarations have included not discussing the Azov Regiment in the context of it supposedly being a Neo-Nazi group, and a general call for decorum against personal attacks.
Fuck Putin: Acceptable topics include saying, "Fuck Putin!" and all permutations thereof, including just repeating the phrase "FuckPutinFuckPutinFuckPutinFuckPutinFuckPutinFuckPutinFuckPutin" ad infinitum (no promises you won't get banned for spam being too awesome, though).
Crazy P is Awesome: If you Awesome a post by CrazyP, it is assumed you are Awesome-ing the fact that CrazyP is alive and well, not that you are Awesome-ing the contents of his post. (CrazyP is a Russian forumer who currently resides in a place that is not Russia.)
News & Information: While the fog of war always exists and it is very difficult to verify all reports, there does exist a standard of credibility. Major, established news outlets such as The New York Times or Reuters are generally accepted sources. Independent journalists, open source intelligence analysts, and official government sources should be evaluated on a case-by-case basis. Blog posts from J. Random Dickbag should be avoided or placed in the correct speculative context. All news should be prefaced with the source and, where appropriate, caveated as unreliable or speculation. Niche or less well-known sources should have corresponding descriptions of their reliability and sourcing.
Please remember that many forumers visit this thread precisely because it typically eschews random internet speculation and propaganda talking points.
Gore and NSFW/NSFL Content: In addition, all content which shows gore, horrific injuries, corpses, mass graves, and similar themes must always be spoilered and tagged appropriately. Failure to do so in the past has resulted in moderator intervention. Inflicting trauma on other forumers is not cool. Please remember that this place is still considered PG-13.
Perun: Videos from Perun have proven to be a very good source of analysis for this war, particularly in the contexts of logistics and procurement. He has received the PA Thread Seal of Approval.
ElJeffe on
+21
Posts
https://mobile.twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1625496891592159232/video/1
Maybe I'm hopelessly naive, but I am baffled that a slew of countries was seemingly pressuring Germany for export licenses, and now is reneging after Germany is go. I genuinely believed Germany was holding things up and was quite miffed at Scholz insisting on an American commitment. Now I can't help but wonder if he knew only the U.S. could be relied on to follow through on its word.
That and the Us wants to be the superpower in whose sphere of influence the EU resides, at least in terms of the Military-Industrial power and up to a point the joint foreign policy.
The EU lets it as long as Germany can be the economic heavyweight in its sphere of influence (and France gets the captaincy of whatever hierarchy and administration that creates).
And most people in the western EU feel that’s a fine division of powers where everyone gets things the others don’t care for.
It was rather weird when Trump insisted we weapon up.
Especially that now Poland of all the countries seems to be a bit wobbly with their leopard commitment is “hilarious“
Germany: 14 2a6
Portugal: 3 2a6
Canada: 4 2a4
Spain: training and "some" 2a4
Poland: 14 2a4, probably, maybe less
Finland: 0
Denmark: 0
Norway: 8 2a4
Netherlands: 0, but mostly because they don't actually own any.
Greece: 0, partially thanks to Turkey dicking around in the Mediterranean
Trump phrased it in a way designed to annoy European countries, who are all independent sovereign powers. He made it sound like Europe owed tribute to the USA. He knows how to talk to American conservatives, but his communication style inspires instant loathing in absolutely everyone else.
Who knows if that was even his intention. It's equal odds he actually thought it meant Europe would hand over hundreds of billions of dollars/euros to the US (and maybe by extension him personally?). He really did not seem to have the first idea how any of this stuff actually works beyond his instinctive and pathological need to hustle money out of people.
That was asbsolutely his intention. He literally handed Merkel a physical bill at one point.
Some general probably gave him a talk about inadequate European military funding and he heard it as “we should charge the Europeans protection money.”
He thought Europe owed the US tribute and our military presence there was some zero-sum benefit or gift to Europe.
Yeah I remember thinking "you know, you might not like getting what you're asking for..." at the time.
From the guardian
THEN YOU SHOULD'VE STARTED MAKING MORE LAST YEAR.
it's a good thing the media never even bothers to google search any of this shit before just regurgitating it
It really does feel to me like the west wants Ukraine to just barely be able to win this thing, and since Russia's offensive is looking pretty anemic they're getting hesitant about continuing the up-arming
My position is that the least life would have been lost if we announced last march that by august Ukraine would have F-16/F-15e, M1A2 SEPv3, ATACMS, Bradley, and Patriot and started training immediately. Like given how bad Russia's defense seems to be when Ukraine can punch through, giving them overwhelming force via lend lease would have been the best option.
I will lay out money now: if Putin offers peace but he keeps Crimea, Europe will fall over themselves to demand Ukraine take it
It's quite the conundrum US of A...
That’s the minimum. So yeah. That’s probably a legitimate reason. They haven’t started fielding PrSM missiles yet. It’s still in testing. Low rate initial production maybe. Full rate production won’t be until April 2025 assuming no schedule issues.
Here’s a paper on it
https://www.esd.whs.mil/Portals/54/Documents/FOID/Reading Room/Selected_Acquisition_Reports/FY_2021_SARS/22-F-0762_PrSM_SAR_2021.pdf
Attack’ems
Jfc
It would take the president issuing an EO or maybe even congress passing a law to change our mummy equipment levels.
The standing U.S. policy with North Korea has always been that we are there to protect South Korea, and it is South Korea that gets first say in whether or not we go to war with North Korea because they are the ones who will bear the brunt of such fighting. Not even Japan has the same moral standing when it comes to North Korea because they don't face the same existential threat. Seoul could literally be leveled if a war were to break out, and that's a consequence which we have absolutely no business deciding on our own.
It would figuratively be unavoidable. From a big picture standpoint, we could not have another nation attack our military bases without substantial reprisal. From a foreign policy standpoint you have to treat a missile strike that the head of the nation said was intentional as intentional.
If you don’t have a disproportionate response, and encourages other nations to do the same. And the media would be labeling any president that didn’t attack as a coward. There would be the political and domestic outrage to do it. So unfortunately if we were directly attacked we would have to treat it as such.
But that’s neither here nor there. Pentagon has to be able to fight that war, or multiple African nations as part of a peacekeeping mission.
I'm also skeptical that the U.S would put actual boots on the ground unless it was absolutely unavoidable, more likely they would simply bomb the country's military infrastructure flat from the air with their 10,000,072 other types of long range bombs and missiles.
I'm surprised the U.S isn't simply shipping HIMARS rockets directly from the factory to Ukraine given how effective they've proved to be.
Russia and Iran continue to work together. Russia gets technical support and military supplies.
What is Iran getting out of this is my question? I doubt they have any particular beef with Ukraine, so Russia must be paying for all of this. In what or with what?
Russia is increasing censorship of news or alternative points of view. I expect a statement that "We have always been at war with Ukraine." to be said, without irony, any day now.
Putin is saying that everything in Vuhledar is going fine. The ISW expects this to mean that more units are going to be sent into the meat grinder.
And the mobilized troops are not doing particularly well. They haven't had enough teaching or time to season properly
Now for the detailed stuff.
Svatove and Kreminna continue to be a hot front and the Russians keep pushing. The Ukrainians keep holding the line as best they can, then they fall back to the next line. There's progress for the Russians on this front, but the Ukrainians never route, never even full scale retreat. The just fall back to the next defensive line and keep up the fight.
Bakhmut continues to be a meat grinder.
Vuhledar is seeing some action too. Also some of the Russian commanders got HIMARS'd but the Russian response was literally "We have backups."
The Russians are building more mobilization training centers, so there will probably be further call ups.
Russian unit integration is just going swimmingly.
Russia is also building corrupt patronage networks in the areas they captured. Quelle Fucking Surprise.
We really need to get Ukraine more tanks and more jets. More everything really.
Like, they could credibly counterinvade the continental US or seize the White House if they really, really wanted.
As always, I think it's a mistake to treat such a heterogenous body as ever thinking or operating as "The", but yes I've been saying for a while that there's certainly a faction within NATO countries that is very content for this war to drag on for at least another year or two on the basis that (1) while it's happening, Russia is absolutely unable to indulge in any other adventurism and (2) the longer it lasts, the longer it's going to take Russia to recover from and be any kind of threat to anyone else.
In an imaginary scenario where Putin goes on TV and says "ooops, sorry, terrible mistake with the map co-ordinates, training exercise went wrong, so sorry, everyone come home by the weekend" and Russia pulls out by COB Friday, they still have some pretty significant (if mostly rather outdated) military assets. They still have a 4-digit number of tanks, loads of artillery, IFVs, the majority of their aviation, etc etc. In an imaginary scenario where this dripfeed keeps Ukraine and the UAF's effective strength juuuuust below the threshold where Russia thinks they might still win something out of this for a second year, then Russia comes out of this with far less of everything.
And (3) it's an absolutely inarguable justification to increase defence spending.
Too late do they find out that there's a difference between Russians and real Russians.