The Russian Invasion Of And [War In Ukraine]

Zavian

This thread is to specifically discuss the ongoing Russian invasion and war in Ukraine. On February 24th, 2022, Russia escalated the conflict which began in 2014 with a full scale invasion of Ukraine, sparking a spiral of terror that unfortunately continues to the current day.

This thread is NOT for military fetishism, discussion of the Cold War or World War II, or US politics.

Please be civil to each other and realize this is a sensitive topic.

Jasconius

Zavian wrote: »

This thread is NOT for military fetishism, discussion of the Cold War or World War II, or US politics.

sir, you ask the impossible


i was wondering if this was going to get remade today and i thought about doing it. but the only thing I would have added to the conversation was to point out that basically all of our exposure to information about the war on ukraine is *decidedly* pro-ukrainian, obviously, and as well it should be

but its important when reading the wire to be conscious of this bias... major publications and respected figures including ex-NATO-commanders have been predicted the imminent total collapse of the russian army, the death of putin, the end of the russian federation, and pretty much everything else now for more than a year.... and none of it has happened yet

even as today's ISW assesses that Verbove proper may well be under active contest as-we-post, its still a long road and there's ample reason to believe that Russia will fight to the last man as they are sending even elite paratroopers into the wood chipper to hold the line and force a settlement after the US elections

we should hope for the best but expect... maybe not the worst but certainly no miracles.

but also what if the abrams we sent are like IRL liberty primes made of unobtanium that are completely immortal to russian fire (what if this was real and happened??)

Cornucopiist

So, a post about the EU dropping Ukraine if ‘you know what’ happens in 2024.
It’s not going to be so clearcut, really. Three factors are at play.
The first is that we’re already having an EU-based ‘if’ in 2024 as there will be European Parliament elections.
These are not predicted to create a major shift in the EP, instead somewhat reducing the current center, but not to the point that any winner takes all. Seats are likely to go to the right, but the current center will retain a tripartite majority. It’s going to be a careful coalition likely aiming to make the difference with the right wingers and Eurosceptics.
The current EP president is betting heavy on using pro-Ukrainian sentiment with part of the electorate to boost results for the centre, forcing the issue by going for accelerated accession and perhaps a special union.
Secondly, by the start of 2025 EU economies will have had nearly three years of disentangling themselves from Russia, and the ‘what have you done for me lately’ principle will play.
Russia’s economy will also have been thoroughly infiltrated by China at that point. EU car makers, still the most significant industry, are divided on how to approach China. Any balance between EUprotectionism, Chinese investments bringing much needed EV tech and exports to China (of luxury cars) will determine where our industries want to focus their lobby efforts. Probably not Russia.
Business as usual in Russia is unlikely and won’t weigh much on EU strategies.
Third, our defence industry is waking up and creating a lifeline for the political centre. Conservatives get more leeway when spending on defense and many free market rules go out the window. These reinvigorated industries will certainly bring a lot of weight to the table when lobbying and Russia is one of the EU’s main competitors. A negotiated settlement will not be advantageous to our defence industry, a return to the previous cosying up to Putin even less so.

In the end, it’s hard to imagine Russia hanging on to the current extent for another year. In the previous thread it was described how much warfare can change in a year. I think Ukraine has the advantage of innovation. As the EU starts cranking out new weapons systems I think the advantage to producers of field-testing them will put pressure on member states to also send some of the new gear.

Of course, this will really only end when Putin dies.

Kaputa

One thing I've been wondering about is the quality of US/NATO training. American commanders keep criticizing their Ukrainian proxies for not running headlong into minefields en masse. The Ukrainians, understandably, retort that pouring all their men and armor into an explosive corridor is not the best plan. But Washington argues that a war of attrition is the alternative, and that setup doesn't favor Ukraine.

https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-officer-says-sticking-nato-training-would-get-killed-2023-9

Ukrainian commander says he'd be dead if he fought exactly how the US and its allies taught him
...
During his training, Suleman said he was offered "some good advice" but also "bad advice ... like their way of clearing trenches. I told them: 'Guys, this is going to get us killed.'"
...
A senior intelligence sergeant in the 41st Mechanized Brigade, who goes by the name "Dutchman," told openDemocracy last month: "I don't want to say anything against our partners, but they don't quite understand our situation and how we are fighting."
...
The soldiers believe that instructors have never fought a war like Russia's invasion of Ukraine — the first clash of two heavily-armed militaries for decades.

NATO trained forces do not have a great history of success tbh, I'm starting to wonder if it's actually useful. And the next question this leads me to is, how would the American military actually perform in a war against someone other than 14 year olds desoerately defending their farming villages with small arms (our usual target in recent decades)? Perhaps less well than is commonly assumed?