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What's wrong with this stupid casino system?
TheFish
Registered User regular
Registered User regular
My friend from work went to a casino over the weekend and spent the whole of yesterday boring everyone senseless by going on and on about his retarded "system" - which is of course the old "bet red or black and double when you loose". :roll:
I know there is no such thing as a guaranteed way to win, but probability and statistics aren't my strong point, so I'm not seeing the obvious terrible flaws (although I know there are some).
I know there is no such thing as a guaranteed way to win, but probability and statistics aren't my strong point, so I'm not seeing the obvious terrible flaws (although I know there are some).
TheFish on
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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martingale_%28betting_system%29
Basically - it only works if you have unlimited funds, and casinos stop you from doing that by using maximal limits on betting.
EDIT: And especially with roulette, where the use of the zeroes means that you will definitely lose money because they are neither red nor black.
So all you can do is bet.
5, 10, 20, 40, 80 And if you don't win by then you've lost $155 dollars.
If you do win by then all you've won is 5.
So you have risked $155 to win $5.
Satans..... hints.....
The only real betting strategy that works is to find the games with the smallest house edge -- that is, the games that cause you to win back the greatest percentage of money for the amount that you put in -- and, for games that require skill, such as blackjack, to learn how to make smarter decisions in order to reduce the house edge as much as possible. Note: The house edge is generally low but always positive. Even at a house edge of 0.05, you will still lose $5 for every $100 you put in if you keep playing long enough.
If your friend wants to learn real methods to improve his odds at the casino, point him to this website: http://wizardofodds.com/
That means exactly two things in a situation where there are two green spots where the bank wins every time (which make it less than a 50/50 shot to win), a limited amount of cash, and a low upper limit on bets:
Jack and Shit.
Your friend is paying what is commonly known as the "stupid tax."
Invest in it.
Plus, you're somewhat less likely to have your knees broken by a Ukranian gangster.
Ah....good times.
IOS Game Center ID: Isotope-X
The trick is to register for everything. Expect a LOT of junk mail and spam, but it's worth it. Nowadays everything is on cards, so they can log how long you play, but at some of the older casinos the pit bosses still recognize a whale, and a loser who hits the ATM a lot. I usually withdraw a lot of cash while I'm there, and flash it around, complain about my "losses", and flaunt when/if I do hit big at a table.
It's not costing them anything to give me the free stuff, but it's saving me money as opposed to going to six flags or something similar.
Just thought I'd share my advice on the casinos. Go for the stuff, not the gambling.
Also, one last piece of advice. Hit the tourist information center out the outside of town. You usually get free food and drink coupons, and some tickets for free plays a the tables.
But gambling is "fun"
CUZ THERE'S SOMETHING IN THE MIDDLE AND IT'S GIVING ME A RASH
1) You're playing a game against other players where the house takes a share, such as poker
2) You're actually really good at the game
3) You have a large bankroll and can afford to lose for extended periods of time
If you're ever playing against the house (roulette, slot machines, blackjack), you're playing to lose. It's designed that way, and there's no clever, secret way of betting that's guaranteed to win you tons. The only opportunity you have in a casino to play with the odds on your side is when you're playing against other gamblers, as the house makes money whether you win or lose.
Erm, counting with blackjack if you can find a 5 or a 6 deck/shoe table is often profitable, but they catch on and boot you if you take it too far.
The rest was pretty spot on, though most people are easily spotted and exploited if weak at the holdem tables, in such cases slots might even offer better odds if not a longer ride.
But I'm still a sucker for 3 card poker.
I've only played at one casino before, and it was only on an Indian Reservation, but even then, the dealers always shuffled the 6 decks before the deck hit the last deck or two. I HIGHLY doubt counting is worth it, unless it's extremely blatant.
I've read that counting can bring the odds down to around 1% in the house's favour in a 2 or 3 deck game. I'm not sure it'd be worth it at all when there are 5 or 6 decks involved.
Not for him. The only reason he bothered going was the £££.
Bet limits reduce variance, which make it more likely that you, the punter, will consistently lose small amounts of money whilst they, the casino, will less often lose large amounts of money. They have no other intentional purpose.
This isn't entirely true, but the only other "system" for roulette that gives you better-than-house odds is the old engineering method of observing the wheel for some thousands of spins to see if it is not properly balanced (and thus not truly random) and instead favors certain numbers, and that hasn't worked in decades since casinos observe the wheels and keep statistics and rebalance or replace wheels as necessary; it's not that hard a job to do.
I heard somewhere that certain bets in craps had the lowest dealer advantages at most casinos (a mere fraction of a percent), but really, every game at a casino is designed such that the casino makes money on it in the long run.
What I mean is that the chance of losing ten times in a row is less than the chance of losing once, which is what tends to get people to think that this scheme will work.
WRONG. You're either presenting the exactly correct false reasoning, or actually using the false reasoning to arrive at your conclusion.
Whilst you are strictly correct, in that an even-chance game (like flipping a coin) the probability of ten heads in a row is lower than the probability of just one head once; this has nothing to do with accurate assessment of your expected winnings from gambling.
What you should be considering instead is your "winning" outcome (ten heads in a row) versus every other non-winning outcome (every other combination of heads and tails in a ten-flip coin toss sequence (2^10-1, or thereabouts)
Now, run that extremely low-chance game inifinitely, doubling your stake until you win. See the problem now?
We can reduce this "game" to a single coin toss, and we arrive back at what I said before - the games are "memoryless", so it doesn't matter at all that ten heads in a row is unlikely - what does matter is that you have a 50% chance of getting a head this time. In the case of casino roulette, betting red or black will both give you less than 50%, meaning that you're more likely to lose your money than win.
Excellent!
Go to a casino on a friday night when stupid drunks are playing.
profit.
If you live in the south I highly recommend the beuax rivage in bilouxi.
Betting the pass line max odds is that craps bet. Its a pretty simple bet. You put down the minimum bet on the pass line wait for the come out roll and then put down the max odds. If the shooter makes his points you're rich!
While this does have a great edge for the player if you are playing with people who keep shooting craps you are just going to lose money. Based on my personal experience and superstition alone look for the table with the urban players and the hot chicks. That is where the hot dice are. Old people roll craps.