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THE BLU-RAY INVASION
trantramp
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I'm wondering if anyone would have any idea if when or at all blu-ray will begin to compete and take over DVDs as the primary format?
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Not for years. Low hardware adoption and higher cost. It's extremely far from being a dominant format.
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DVD is not even thirteen years old yet. It was released commercially in 1997. And by any measure DVD became market leader exceptionally fast.
For instance in Norway the last VHS major release was in 2004.
1. Consumer perception that Blu Ray isn't a huge improvement over DVDs. I have no data, but I'm sure at least some people would think it.
2. Many of the reasons that people wanted to switch to DVD aren't gained when moving to Blu Ray. Going to DVDs, you saw a bunch of convenience improvements such as no rewinding and no tape wear from repeated viewings. Those sort of improvements aren't seen moving to Blu Ray.
3. Blu Ray adoption rates are, with the exception of the PS3, tied to the subset of TV owners that is HD TV owners. There's less people around that own them to adopt compared to all TV owners being able to benefit from DVD players.
I think this is highly unlikely. Drawing a parallel to the music industry, Itunes has been around for 5 years now and digital sales only account for 15% of the global market. The high definition market did start slowly with about half the sales of DvD for the first two years. Blu-ray appears to be growing however with estimated sales of $194 million for the first 6 months of 2008, this is nearly a 350% gain over the combined BD and HD sales in the first 6 months of 2007. Blu-ray sales are also expected to at least triple what digital downloading is expected to sell. This Christmas is going to crucial to the future of Blu-ray and should also be when prices drop into to the $200 range.
I don't want to offend anybody or you, but people who think this are living in a tech media bubble.
Not everybody has an internet connection, and less people have a broadband connection.
Digital movie distribution isn't going to usurp physical media until broadband internet is as widespread as the telephone.
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Is $200 a decent price? You can also go with a internal for $130 or so. Prices are suppose to be in the $200 range this Christmas so for $150 probably late 2009.
I'm willing to bet that the number of people who don't have broadband but do have a high-definition television are vanishingly small. There's some overlap here you're not considering.
seriously. Not even an action movie or special effects or anything.
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I'm sure the rise of blu-ray will be tied to the spread of high-def sets. Both have to come down in cost (more than they already have) before the combination is anything close to reasonable for the average family.
I don't think digital distribution will take over for movies prior to blu-ray. It's a nice thought, but it's pretty obvious that the movie industry is not overly fond of the net. Their idea of digital delivery is sending someone a subpoena by e-mail when they sue them.
The reason why bluray isn't taking off that much is because of a number of factors 1. Price, as mentioned the right price point isn't there yet 2. You only get the advantage of bluray if you also have a hdtv (see 1) 3. People have just started really getting into dvd and suddenly their collections are obsolete? Not if they can help it. The switch to a newer format is probably too soon for that. 4. The quality increase from dvd to bluray isn't as major as it was from VHS to DVD.
Ok for an audio format example; at the start of the 20th century we had vinyl records.. by the mid 1960's we get the cassette tape and then the cd in the 1980's.. look at the time between each format, it's the same kind of thing with video. People don't like a format change every few years, they prefer it every few decades and only if it gives a noticeable increase in quality. (look at the stillborn sacd and dvd-audio, no perceptibly noticeable increase in quality)
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I don't think it'll be quick, but in 50 years I can't imagine entertainment being delivered physically, not when your wristwatch is just as capable of playing your movies as your living-room 'set'. Guess we'll see.
Hmm. Think this would work in OS X? Because if so $200 is just about the most I'd pay.
Switch: 6200-8149-0919 / Wii U: maximumzero / 3DS: 0860-3352-3335 / eBay Shop
That necessitates a big, well-rounded, full-bodied glass of wut. The barriers to entry are higher in order to see the improvement (a 1080p HDTV of a decent size, depending on seating distance) but there's definitely just as big of an improvement. I'm not going to try to argue that it's "bigger" because VHS->DVD had the massive edge in terms of audio quality, but regular SD looks just horrid now after fattening up the HD collection.
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The point still stands, it's merely an increase in the resolution of the video.
All you got with VHS was some analog video that gradually deteriorates over time.
Look at all the things DVD introduced over VHS.
Significant video quality/resolution increase
Menus
Chapter selections
Multiple sound tracks (for example director commentary, alternate languages)
Multiple selectable subtitles
Excellent sound quality and addition of things like proper surround support
Most significantly no deterioration of video or audio quality over subsequent playback
Whereas when it comes down to it all that bluray really offers over DVD is a better higher resolution picture and the only people who will see that advantage are those with a hdtv.
My point still stands, the overall quality isn't anywhere near as big a jump as it was from VHS to DVD.
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I've got a spare copy of Portal, if anyone wants it message me.
A DVD player won't play VHS tapes, but Blu-Ray players will play dvd's, and with upconversion (by the set or the player) their existing dvd's will look better on their huge ass TV. If someones DVD player broke today, unless they totally want to cheap out, they can get a Bluray player for a reasonable price. And if they didn't want to spend 50% more they can still buy and play dvd's.
OK, I'm picking nits, I don't really disagree. I think we're still a few years off of mainstream BluRay, but maybe not. I'm finding lots of recent dvd's on sale at 50-75% off ($5-8 a piece).
Sorry, still prefer vinyl played on my 70's record player, driven by my 50's tube amps; much better sounding then my ought era multichannel receiver and cd player. :P
Edit: GrimReaper -> and audio, uncompressed audio is impressive. I'd say it's more impressive than the extra pixels.
DVD looks great, so great in fact that you need to get a 30+ inch HDTV in order to get a better image.
at smaller sizes, DVD and blueray arent that big of a difference unless you are sitting right under the TV.
most people dont have 30+ inch HDTVs or even 30+ inch SDTVs
A pretty sizeable portion of HDTV owners don't watch any HD content at all. They bought their TVs to hang on the wall, not add $20 to their monthly cable/sat bill.
An approximately 500% higher resolution picture, and lossless audio - which as pointed out is a significant improvement as well.
Again, you can't say that there's "not as big of an improvement" just because you need higher-end equipment to see it. You won't see an improvement in the A/V quality of DVD if you play it through an RF adaptor into an old 19" tube set with built-in speakers.
DVD looks great when you have nothing else to compare it to; when you put it next to HD, it's simply not up to par.
Can trade TF2 items or whatever else you're interested in. PM me.
Can trade TF2 items or whatever else you're interested in. PM me.
Most hd stuff is 720p, that's not a massive increase. 720x576 versus 1280x720.. not major. Only the very newest stuff is available in 1080p. And please, lossless audio is great and all.. but please give me an example of a double blind test where people could actually notice the difference in audio quality between some AC3 (or whatever) encoded and something lossless. (no perceptible difference in quality)
BTW, DVD does support lossless audio in PCM. It also supports MPEG-1 Layer 2, AC3 and DTS. It's rare you'll find stuff using PCM though because of the bitrate and space requirements.
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I've got a spare copy of Portal, if anyone wants it message me.
Every BD/HD movie is 1080p. Several HD channels are 1080i.
I know some people who can tell the difference between a 320kbps MP3 and the original WAV.
I also know some who can't tell the difference between a 128kbps MP3 and the original WAV.
Just because you can't see/hear a difference doesn't mean it's absent.
So that would be an advantage of BD/HD - more space to put these improvements.
Can trade TF2 items or whatever else you're interested in. PM me.
So we're going the "I don't believe you" route?
I really doubt there are any double-blind tests of such as you are asking for. You don't mess up a good racket like high-end AV, by bringing in "tests" and "science." :P
Watch House of Flying Daggers with the uncompressed Chinese audio in bitstream, the pebble test scene and the bead room. If you can't tell the difference, then stick to your dvd's. My understanding is hearing is the first to go.
It's rediculous, and then stores like Walmart, Zellers and stores like that have there TV's all hooked up in S-video, it was pretty dumb. The picture looks like shit and what message does that give the the average consumer.
Sky Captain and the World of Tomorrow is one of the best examples of this. It's a very soft image, and it's nigh impossible to see the difference, because the fuzziness of the film itself is greater than the fuzziness of the DVD transfer.
While SC is the best example, it's not the only one. Even on some seriously top-quality transfers, many of the scenes are mediocre showcases for HD resolution. I was watching Blade Runner the other day. Gorgeous, gorgeous transfer, and razor sharp at times. But a lot of the film doesn't look any better than a good-quality DVD, just because the film itself isn't designed to show off.
And before anyone tells me that I just don't know any better, I have a 50" 1080p Sony Bravia that's properly calibrated and I am a fucking supergeek when it comes to A/V. When there's a difference, I can spot it. But often, there simply isn't. To me, Bluray is a Big Fucking Deal, and I love my PS3 and television as a result. (And I can't wait to pick up a receiver that can take advantage of TrueHD audio.) To the average person, though - even the average person with a good-sized TV - it's not. That makes the appeal of Bluray much lower. Certainly less than the appeal of DVD over VHS, even ignoring the convenience features.
That said, Bluray has a tremendous advantage in its backwards compatibility. If and when Bluray players get down to $100 - and they will, inside a couple years - there will be no reason not to buy one. For $50 over the cost of a DVD player, you future proof yourself with a system that can still play your entire library. Why not?
Still, there's a chance that Bluray will never become dominant. Probably about 50/50 at this point. At the worst, though, I think Bluray will operate as a niche market, sort of like a turbocharged LaserDisc market. LaserDisc did pretty well for itself as a niche market, and I can survive if the only films that come out in HD are big budget releases and other high-profile stuff. I really don't need to see every pore on Jennifer Aniston in the latest chick flick.
And these people, despite owning HDTVs, are not likely to be driving any sort of BRD sales. Because even though they have HD-capable screens, they are more than comfortable viewing the SD content that you describe as horrid.
I'll also throw my money into the "not that big of quality increase" camp. In motion, HD movies dont' offer much for me over DVD picture/sound. If it cost the same I'd go for it, but I wouldn't pay more than a $2 per disc premium for the content.
There is a reason not to buy one: your DVD player is still alive and kicking. I'd surmise a fair number of people converted to DVDs because their VHS players stopped working and they couldn't buy a player anymore.
Does anyone know what's holding up the release of movies to Blu-Ray? I've been waiting for "Any Given Sunday" (a Warner Bros. title) for ever (it seems). "I Am Legend" (a much newer Warner title) has already been released, what gives?
According to Wikipedia the DRM has been broken several times. Also price per disc at big box stores is fucking ridiculous and even Amazon's 30% off is still way to high.
all down to the publishers choice. They will wait to release certain types of films at certain point of the year that will have a better chance of success.
For me I love Blu-Ray I love the fact that the discs have that cool coating that prevents scratches. Mean I can buy pre-owned movies with confidence. At the moment the Blu-Ray movies seem to have a pretty good price point with Sony published films. Having older quality titles priced lower than the latest releases. So its good to find a Blu-Ray movie thats only £3 more expensive than the DVD I can justify the quality/price difference.
The problem I see is some studios are making a dogs dinner of their conversions and pricing structure.
When Warner Bros is having to release a 2nd version of Full Metal Jacket because the first release was of such a poor quality is a bad sign. Having these movies at 300% more expensive than the DVD version doesn't help.
I have a hard time trying to convince myself that a £30 Blu Ray is worth it over a £7 DVD version.
I'm happy with DVD quality. Therefore, I'll hold off on a new player until I'm given a compelling reason to upgrade.
Here's a article about how studios pick which movies get released first. Day and date releases have pretty high chance of getting released and being a blockbuster, like I am Legend was, basically guarantees that it will come out on Blu-ray. I also believe that Blu-ray production is capped by the number of manufacturing facilities they have.
edit: Not sure this is the place, but Amazon does have a B2G1 sale right now for those that have a Blu-ray player.
Yes it does. There have been reports and videos of people using knives on the discs and not leaving a mark.