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ButtersA glass of some milksRegistered Userregular
edited August 2008
The latest update includes two days of interviewing following Obama's selection of Sen. Joe Biden as his vice presidential running mate, and neither day showed an improved performance for Obama. Thus, Obama does not appear to have gotten the same type of immediate "vice presidential bounce" as have presidential candidates in recent years.
Don't gallup polls have no real reflection on how the electoral map and you stupid fuckers should just watch fivethirtyeight instead? It's going to take more time for the way the american electoral system actually works to register.
Trell on
ori's modding is stupid and arbitrary and based on no actual rule system but rather wind patterns and astrology.
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ButtersA glass of some milksRegistered Userregular
edited August 2008
Yeah I should trust some dude in Chicago over the nationally recognized polls because that more consistently shows Obama winning.
Seriously who the hell is this 538 guy and why had I never heard of him outside of SE++?
Yeah I should trust some dude in Chicago over the nationally recognized polls because that more consistently shows Obama winning.
Seriously who the hell is this 538 guy and why had I never heard of him outside of SE++?
His name is Nate Silver and he started out as a baseball statistician. He's the choice of pretty much everyone who works on the campaign, and I imagine this is even true of the other side, because he provides great analysis and weighting to polling numbers.
For instance, a poll comes out from the Columbus Dispatch showing John McCain leading by one in Ohio. However, the Columbus Dispatch has an 8.00 point margin of error (not the MOE they publish, but the actual margin in their results versus what actually happened in the primaries and past elections), so it basically gets thrown out. Meanwhile Ann Selzer, the best-rated pollster puts out a 7 point lead for Barack in Michigan makes a big difference, though she has a slight Democratic lean in all her polls so the weight for Obama gets knocked down a bit. He applies demographic weighting and a state's electoral history to his model, adjusts for the national trend, applies regional trends where polls come out in say, Ohio, will affect standings in Indiana.
He provides a ton of interesting statistics and any time a stupid media narrative comes up he shows you what the actual numbers are and whether or not the media is talking out of their ass (they usually are).
And just so you know he showed Obama losing just last week. He is an open Obama supporter but endeavors to build the best statistical model possible. Sometimes when he makes adjustments it hurts Obama's score, sometimes it helps, but overall the stuff he does makes a good deal of sense and he's been more accurate at predicting primary outcomes than any individual pollster. Most notably he pretty much hit Indiana and North Carolina on the nose when everyone else was way off.
first time since june where mccain has had a lead in gallup polling
Or maybe you're a faggot and anyone but Clinton would have resulted in an immediate drop of a couple points as Clinton drama came to a head but Biden has very high favorability among Democrats, seniors, and independents overall, and once the Clintonites get over it he will prove to be a sound long-term decision.
first time since june where mccain has had a lead in gallup polling
Or maybe you're a faggot and anyone but Clinton would have resulted in an immediate drop of a couple points as Clinton drama came to a head but Biden has very high favorability among Democrats, seniors, and independents overall, and once the Clintonites get over it he will prove to be a sound long-term decision.
"The lone financier of the anti-Obama ad, Texas billionaire Harold Simmons, was also one of the main funders of the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth who targeted Kerry. Simmons, a McCain fundraiser, contributed nearly $2.9 million to the American Issues Project, according to documents filed by the group with the Federal Election Commission. "
If McCain doesn't support it, he needs to publicly reprimand his fundraiser.
Legislation designed to limit the influence of individuals from having undue sway over the outcome of the election then?
The phrase checks and balances refers in the specific to the seperation of powers, but I'm pretty sure in general you can use it as a phrase regarding legislation passed to limit ambition and individual power.
Maybe not, I dunno, it seems fair to me though.
Oh hey, you passed something in 2002, McCain-Feingold as a halfhearted attempt to limit soft money but apparently its really shitty and full of loopholes I guess.
canemaquilus on
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ButtersA glass of some milksRegistered Userregular
Legislation designed to limit the influence of individuals from having undue sway over the outcome of the election then?
Oh hey, you passed something in 2002 as a halfhearted attempt to limit soft money but apparently its really shitty and full of loopholes I guess.
527 groups are the loophole yes. However, limiting free speech (like what Obama is trying to do and what the 2002 bill does) is not the answer to this problem.
Legislation designed to limit the influence of individuals from having undue sway over the outcome of the election then?
first time since june where mccain has had a lead in gallup polling
Or maybe you're a faggot and anyone but Clinton would have resulted in an immediate drop of a couple points as Clinton drama came to a head but Biden has very high favorability among Democrats, seniors, and independents overall, and once the Clintonites get over it he will prove to be a sound long-term decision.
what makes you think theyll get over it
Not all of them will but realistically a lot of them are going to start "coming home"
have you seen the ad? i suspect obama is coming down as hard as he is on it because it makes a really obvious attempt to link him to 9/11. it plays into the "obama is a secret muslim terrorist" fears.
Legislation designed to limit the influence of individuals from having undue sway over the outcome of the election then?
Oh hey, you passed something in 2002 as a halfhearted attempt to limit soft money but apparently its really shitty and full of loopholes I guess.
527 groups are the loophole yes. However, limiting free speech (like what Obama is trying to do and what the 2002 bill does) is not the answer to this problem.
Legislation designed to limit the influence of individuals from having undue sway over the outcome of the election then?
How is this an example of that?
How is "not giving money to stations that run hitjob ads against you" restricting free speech?
Its not. When a texas billionaire contributes millions of dollars to anti-democrat attack ads, I think we can safely say its an example of the absence of that type of legislation.
Direct campaign contributions are capped for a reason.
527 groups as you call them are circumventing the system, a system which is in place for a very good reason.
canemaquilus on
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ButtersA glass of some milksRegistered Userregular
have you seen the ad? i suspect obama is coming down as hard as he is on it because it makes a really obvious attempt to link him to 9/11. it plays into the "obama is a secret muslim terrorist" fears.
No I haven't but I'll tell you this is another example of Obama not thinking very clearly on who to associate with. This Ayers dude looks like a freaking nutjob.
Legislation designed to limit the influence of individuals from having undue sway over the outcome of the election then?
Oh hey, you passed something in 2002 as a halfhearted attempt to limit soft money but apparently its really shitty and full of loopholes I guess.
527 groups are the loophole yes. However, limiting free speech (like what Obama is trying to do and what the 2002 bill does) is not the answer to this problem.
Legislation designed to limit the influence of individuals from having undue sway over the outcome of the election then?
How is this an example of that?
How is "not giving money to stations that run hitjob ads against you" restricting free speech?
Obama is trying to have the justice department shut down that ads and McCain-Feingold has many clauses in it that restrict what sort of ads candidates are allowed to have and when they can air them.
Its not. When a texas billionaire contributes millions of dollars to anti-democrat attack ads, I think we can safely say its an example of the absence of that type of legislation.
Direct campaign contributions are capped for a reason.
527 groups as you call them are circumventing the system, a system which is in place for a very good reason.
No its a horseshit system to begin with is what the real problem is.
Posts
However, a telephone survey shows that 57% of Democratic women think Obama is the candidate who will do best against McCain.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/109792/Gallup-Daily-Race-Tied-Democratic-Convention-Starts.aspx
Seriously who the hell is this 538 guy and why had I never heard of him outside of SE++?
PARKER, YOU'RE FIRED! <-- My comic book podcast! Satan look here!
Their beds.
EDIT: NO!
His name is Nate Silver and he started out as a baseball statistician. He's the choice of pretty much everyone who works on the campaign, and I imagine this is even true of the other side, because he provides great analysis and weighting to polling numbers.
For instance, a poll comes out from the Columbus Dispatch showing John McCain leading by one in Ohio. However, the Columbus Dispatch has an 8.00 point margin of error (not the MOE they publish, but the actual margin in their results versus what actually happened in the primaries and past elections), so it basically gets thrown out. Meanwhile Ann Selzer, the best-rated pollster puts out a 7 point lead for Barack in Michigan makes a big difference, though she has a slight Democratic lean in all her polls so the weight for Obama gets knocked down a bit. He applies demographic weighting and a state's electoral history to his model, adjusts for the national trend, applies regional trends where polls come out in say, Ohio, will affect standings in Indiana.
He provides a ton of interesting statistics and any time a stupid media narrative comes up he shows you what the actual numbers are and whether or not the media is talking out of their ass (they usually are).
And just so you know he showed Obama losing just last week. He is an open Obama supporter but endeavors to build the best statistical model possible. Sometimes when he makes adjustments it hurts Obama's score, sometimes it helps, but overall the stuff he does makes a good deal of sense and he's been more accurate at predicting primary outcomes than any individual pollster. Most notably he pretty much hit Indiana and North Carolina on the nose when everyone else was way off.
something tells me biden was a bad pick
first time since june where mccain has had a lead in gallup polling
Let's ignore Gallup.
HE'S LEADING
FOR THE FIRST TIME IN NEARLY 3 MONTHS
THIS IS A TREND
STOP IGNORING IT
did you see my straight line
Or maybe you're a faggot and anyone but Clinton would have resulted in an immediate drop of a couple points as Clinton drama came to a head but Biden has very high favorability among Democrats, seniors, and independents overall, and once the Clintonites get over it he will prove to be a sound long-term decision.
what makes you think theyll get over it
Registered voters vs Likely voters!
Race issues!
Oh my!
gallup doesn't do likely voters
That was my point.
Oh and silence them.
Turns out the translation is this:
"There is no God but Allah, Muhammad is the Messenger of Allah".
Not too bad considering.
"The lone financier of the anti-Obama ad, Texas billionaire Harold Simmons, was also one of the main funders of the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth who targeted Kerry. Simmons, a McCain fundraiser, contributed nearly $2.9 million to the American Issues Project, according to documents filed by the group with the Federal Election Commission. "
If McCain doesn't support it, he needs to publicly reprimand his fundraiser.
Seriously dont you guys have any sort of checks and balances to stop/limit shit like this? We do in canada, I'll tell you that for nothing.
The phrase checks and balances refers in the specific to the seperation of powers, but I'm pretty sure in general you can use it as a phrase regarding legislation passed to limit ambition and individual power.
Maybe not, I dunno, it seems fair to me though.
Oh hey, you passed something in 2002, McCain-Feingold as a halfhearted attempt to limit soft money but apparently its really shitty and full of loopholes I guess.
527 groups are the loophole yes. However, limiting free speech (like what Obama is trying to do and what the 2002 bill does) is not the answer to this problem.
How is this an example of that?
Not all of them will but realistically a lot of them are going to start "coming home"
How is "not giving money to stations that run hitjob ads against you" restricting free speech?
Its not. When a texas billionaire contributes millions of dollars to anti-democrat attack ads, I think we can safely say its an example of the absence of that type of legislation.
Direct campaign contributions are capped for a reason.
527 groups as you call them are circumventing the system, a system which is in place for a very good reason.
No I haven't but I'll tell you this is another example of Obama not thinking very clearly on who to associate with. This Ayers dude looks like a freaking nutjob.
Obama is trying to have the justice department shut down that ads and McCain-Feingold has many clauses in it that restrict what sort of ads candidates are allowed to have and when they can air them.
No its a horseshit system to begin with is what the real problem is.