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Would it be a good idea to buy Washington Mutual stock?

Robos A Go GoRobos A Go Go Registered User regular
edited October 2008 in Help / Advice Forum
So AIG was like $1.80, received a bailout, and jumped to $5.00 before settling at like $4.

Would the same thing happen to Washington Mutual if it received a bailout? If so, what's the likelihood that it will receive part of the $700 billion bailout plan?

And if that likelihood is high, would it be a good idea to buy some stock in Washington Mutual now, when it's at $2.00 a share?

Robos A Go Go on
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Posts

  • bowenbowen Sup? Registered User regular
    edited September 2008
    It seems like a bad financial decision to invest in a company that needed a bailout. It's probably okay for short-term investment but long term will most likely tank on you. Considering it's a company that makes bad financial investments.

    bowen on
    not a doctor, not a lawyer, examples I use may not be fully researched so don't take out of context plz, don't @ me
  • CauldCauld Registered User regular
    edited September 2008
    All stocks, by definition, are trading at their current fair market value.

    Cauld on
  • Robos A Go GoRobos A Go Go Registered User regular
    edited September 2008
    bowen wrote: »
    It seems like a bad financial decision to invest in a company that needed a bailout. It's probably okay for short-term investment but long term will most likely tank on you. Considering it's a company that makes bad financial investments.

    I don't know. I mean, if everything that receives a bailout is bound to tank, then why give a bailout in the first place?
    All stocks, by definition, are trading at their current fair market value.

    Err, yeah, and I'm asking if WaMu's value might increase?

    Robos A Go Go on
  • CauldCauld Registered User regular
    edited September 2008
    bowen wrote: »
    It seems like a bad financial decision to invest in a company that needed a bailout. It's probably okay for short-term investment but long term will most likely tank on you. Considering it's a company that makes bad financial investments.

    I don't know. I mean, if everything that receives a bailout is bound to tank, then why give a bailout in the first place?
    All stocks, by definition, are trading at their current fair market value.

    Err, yeah, and I'm asking if WaMu's value might increase?

    Yes, and it might decrease. There is no good answer to your question.

    Cauld on
  • DenadaDenada Registered User regular
    edited September 2008
    WaMu's share price might increase and a short-term sale might net you a nice chunk of cash. WaMu's share price could also decrease, and you could lose your money.

    As far as which is more likely (which is probably what you're really asking), I don't know. I lean more towards "you might make a quick buck" but some things tell me there's a good chance of that not happening.

    Also keep in mind that this bailout may not happen at all. It's losing a lot of steam already, and if nothing else it probably won't happen in the form originally proposed by Paulson. Even if it does happen, WaMu may not get any of that money.

    Denada on
  • PeekingDuckPeekingDuck __BANNED USERS regular
    edited September 2008
    Robosguy wrote:
    Err, yeah, and I'm asking if WaMu's value might increase?

    If you have money to blow and expect the bailout to go through, buying WaMu is fine.

    PeekingDuck on
  • bowenbowen Sup? Registered User regular
    edited September 2008
    Robosguy wrote:
    Err, yeah, and I'm asking if WaMu's value might increase?

    If you have money to blow and expect the bailout to go through, buying WaMu is fine.

    It might make more sense to invest that money in better places.

    bowen on
    not a doctor, not a lawyer, examples I use may not be fully researched so don't take out of context plz, don't @ me
  • grungeboxgrungebox Registered User regular
    edited September 2008
    Also, keep in mind that WaMu is in the midst of trying to get someone to buy them. How that will affect the stock price is uncertain.

    I would only invest exactly what you can afford to lose in something like this. As in, if you took the money you were going to put into WaMu and burned it, would you be okay or go nuts?

    grungebox on
    Quail is just hipster chicken
  • EdgieEdgie TampaRegistered User regular
    edited September 2008
    You're basically trying to time the market if you do this. This means you have to guess when the correct time to buy is and when the correct time to sell out. No one knows what the market is going to do.

    If you decide to do this, know you're taking a large gamble with your money.

    Edgie on
  • wasted pixelswasted pixels Registered User regular
    edited September 2008
    Thread in a nutshell: "It could go up, but also, it could go down". I think a lot of people here probably have an opinion, but they don't want to lay it on the line. I'll lay it on the line. It'd be a bad move. They took a nasty hit today, and they can't blame short-sellers anymore; these are long-term investors who are cutting their losses and walking away from the stock, even though it's down to "pocket change" per share. Standard & Poor’s just cut its debt rating to CCC, and the difficulty they're having in finding a cash infusion indicates that industry insiders don't see a bounce happening. There are a few ways this can pan out, but the most likely scenarios all result in Johnny Q. Investor getting screwed.

    Roulette might be a safer option, "even" wins almost half the time I hear.

    wasted pixels on
  • bowenbowen Sup? Registered User regular
    edited September 2008
    Thread in a nutshell: "It could go up, but also, it could go down". I think a lot of people here probably have an opinion, but they don't want to lay it on the line. I'll lay it on the line. It'd be a bad move. They took a nasty hit today, and they can't blame short-sellers anymore; these are long-term investors who are cutting their losses and walking away from the stock, even though it's down to "pocket change" per share. Standard & Poor’s just cut its debt rating to CCC, and the difficulty they're having in finding a cash infusion indicates that industry insiders don't see a bounce happening. There are a few ways this can pan out, but the most likely scenarios all result in Johnny Q. Investor getting screwed.

    Roulette might be a safer option, "even" wins almost half the time I hear.

    I would say it's a very bad investment too. Thought I said that the first time.

    bowen on
    not a doctor, not a lawyer, examples I use may not be fully researched so don't take out of context plz, don't @ me
  • wasted pixelswasted pixels Registered User regular
    edited September 2008
    bowen wrote: »
    Thread in a nutshell: "It could go up, but also, it could go down".

    I would say it's a very bad investment too. Thought I said that the first time.

    Yeah, sorry for painting the thread with THAT broad of a brush, you and grungebox actually provided pretty helpful input, but everybody else seemed to be summarizing what a stock is. ;)

    wasted pixels on
  • bowenbowen Sup? Registered User regular
    edited September 2008
    bowen wrote: »
    Thread in a nutshell: "It could go up, but also, it could go down".

    I would say it's a very bad investment too. Thought I said that the first time.

    Yeah, sorry for painting the thread with THAT broad of a brush, you and grungebox actually provided pretty helpful input, but everybody else seemed to be summarizing what a stock is. ;)

    I would definitely look towards a sector that's starting to gain a foothold and looking to expand too. For example, a few months back it would've been really smart to invest in companies that are offering "Green Solutions." Look for something that could address a huge public need and invest.

    Not to offer more generic investment advice, but some people don't know this and just pick stocks at random.

    bowen on
    not a doctor, not a lawyer, examples I use may not be fully researched so don't take out of context plz, don't @ me
  • EggyToastEggyToast Jersey CityRegistered User regular
    edited September 2008
    There's nothing wrong with doing this, but there's little difference at this point between buying WaMu stock right now, or buying a couple lottery tickets. Could WaMu be bought out and jump in price? Sure. Could it get a part of the bailout, showing its hand as being "weak" and stay the same? Sure. Could more serious investors decide that WaMu is worth less? Of course.

    It costs you, what, 5-10 bucks to initiate a trade? Costs you usually $0 to open a CD and get a guaranteed 3-4% interest rate.

    EggyToast on
    || Flickr — || PSN: EggyToast
  • bowenbowen Sup? Registered User regular
    edited September 2008
    EggyToast wrote: »
    There's nothing wrong with doing this, but there's little difference at this point between buying WaMu stock right now, or buying a couple lottery tickets. Could WaMu be bought out and jump in price? Sure. Could it get a part of the bailout, showing its hand as being "weak" and stay the same? Sure. Could more serious investors decide that WaMu is worth less? Of course.

    It costs you, what, 5-10 bucks to initiate a trade? Costs you usually $0 to open a CD and get a guaranteed 3-4% interest rate.

    I was going to suggest a CD once I found the % interest on it.

    bowen on
    not a doctor, not a lawyer, examples I use may not be fully researched so don't take out of context plz, don't @ me
  • ShogunShogun Hair long; money long; me and broke wizards we don't get along Registered User regular
    edited September 2008
    No it would not be a good idea to buy WaMu stock.


    It would be a very risky idea to buy WaMu stock.

    Shogun on
  • GungHoGungHo Registered User regular
    edited September 2008
    Just go to Vegas and go all in on a hand of blackjack if you want a more certain outcome.

    Or just give me your spare cash and invest in my happiness.

    GungHo on
  • theclamtheclam Registered User regular
    edited September 2008
    I don't think it's a bad idea. It's definitely very risky, but the payoff could be very high. If WaMu rebounds, you'd make a killing. It's a hell of a lot better than buying lottery tickets.

    Just remember, never invest more than you're willing to lose.

    theclam on
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  • grungeboxgrungebox Registered User regular
    edited September 2008
    Incidentally, WaMu has declined 25% in the four hours since the OP, mostly because no one, not even the government, wants to buy WaMu. Take that for what it's worth, OP.

    grungebox on
    Quail is just hipster chicken
  • TreelootTreeloot Registered User regular
    edited September 2008
    I'm not opposed to buying individual stocks, but what you're doing isn't investing. It's gambling.

    The people who make money from day trading aren't traders, they're stock brokers.

    Treeloot on
  • ShogunShogun Hair long; money long; me and broke wizards we don't get along Registered User regular
    edited September 2008
    grungebox wrote: »
    Incidentally, WaMu has declined 25% in the four hours since the OP, mostly because no one, not even the government, wants to buy WaMu. Take that for what it's worth, OP.

    This is not exactly true. Goldman Sachs is currently auctioning WaMu and there are several prospective buyers, however they are probably not willing to buy unless the government purchases WaMu's toxic assets because WaMu really loved their commercial real estate, MBS, and CDO instruments. However these buyers are biding their time to see if the government purchases these assets making WaMu much more lucrative. The chance of WaMu being bought out is greater than WaMu folding unless the bailout does not go forward in a reasonable amount of time.

    edit: Also when the stock price is at $2 a 25% increase/decrease is not very significant unless the OP has serious money at stake.

    Shogun on
  • ThanatosThanatos Registered User regular
    edited September 2008
    Like everyone else says, this is gambling. It's possible, but anyone who tells you that it's for-sure going to go one way or the other is full of shit. It's a guessing game, at this point.

    Thanatos on
  • SkyGheNeSkyGheNe Registered User regular
    edited September 2008
    bowen wrote: »
    It seems like a bad financial decision to invest in a company that needed a bailout. It's probably okay for short-term investment but long term will most likely tank on you. Considering it's a company that makes bad financial investments.

    I don't know. I mean, if everything that receives a bailout is bound to tank, then why give a bailout in the first place?
    All stocks, by definition, are trading at their current fair market value.

    Err, yeah, and I'm asking if WaMu's value might increase?

    Why invest in something that has the possibility of going down?

    Ask yourself these questions.

    1) Do you see WaMu being in existence 10 years from now?

    2) Do you see WaMu being in existence 20 years from now?

    3) Is the stock selling at a reasonable price for decent returns?

    4) Do you understand its business model and where the money is going? Look at their annual reports?

    5) Is the company managed by competent and good people. Management is key. Look at Warren Buffet - swell guy.


    If you can't answer these questions honestly, you shouldn't be investing.

    SkyGheNe on
  • SkyGheNeSkyGheNe Registered User regular
    edited September 2008
    theclam wrote: »
    I don't think it's a bad idea. It's definitely very risky, but the payoff could be very high. If WaMu rebounds, you'd make a killing. It's a hell of a lot better than buying lottery tickets.

    Just remember, never invest more than you're willing to lose.

    It's also retarded because short term investing is stupid and after looking at WaMu's annual report, it doesn't look like things will be all that great.

    I'd only invest in them as a game. Not as a serious way of making money, then again, if you're playing stocks to make money instead of playing the game...then you probably have bigger issues and risk.

    The game comes first. Money is secondary to playing, but obviously not everyone subscribes to that.

    Which is why it must hurt so bad when they get burned.

    SkyGheNe on
  • SammyFSammyF Registered User regular
    edited September 2008
    Now is actually a good time to buy almost any stock because prices are lower than they've been for a long, long time. But don't put all of your eggs in one basket--diversify. Even with the bailout, the housing market is till pretty well fucked, and without a stable housing market with high volume of sales, banks don't have anyone to sell mortgages to, which means they can't generate positive revenue.

    Oh look, NBC is explaining it right now. Turn on the TV. TLDR: investing in finance only right now isn't a great idea, and anyway it's already over. JP Morgan bought a lot of their assets and branches.

    Hey, I own JP Morgan! Yay for me.

    SammyF on
  • TokyoRaverTokyoRaver Registered User regular
    edited September 2008
    Dammit, I was hoping that wouldn't happen.


    Anyway, what you are talking about doing is a gamble, but it's a gamble with better information than the odds of a ball falling on "black" or "red" so I would say buying 500 shares for 1K wouldn't be a bad idea, provided you wouldn't put yourself in any financial difficulty by doing so (IE, that money is disposable; it is money you wouldn't worry about taking to a casino)

    I'm not sure why so many people think this is such a terrible idea, I know many people who have made tens of thousands of dollars with very small initial investments doing this.

    The key: Knowing exactly what you are doing, and not getting greedy (that's where people always seem to go wrong)

    TokyoRaver on
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  • Robos A Go GoRobos A Go Go Registered User regular
    edited September 2008
    SammyF wrote: »
    Now is actually a good time to buy almost any stock because prices are lower than they've been for a long, long time. But don't put all of your eggs in one basket--diversify. Even with the bailout, the housing market is till pretty well fucked, and without a stable housing market with high volume of sales, banks don't have anyone to sell mortgages to, which means they can't generate positive revenue.

    Oh look, NBC is explaining it right now. Turn on the TV. TLDR: investing in finance only right now isn't a great idea, and anyway it's already over. JP Morgan bought a lot of their assets and branches.

    Hey, I own JP Morgan! Yay for me.

    Wait, so what happens to WaMu stock now that JP Morgan has bought their assets and branches?

    Is it now worthless?

    Robos A Go Go on
  • TokyoRaverTokyoRaver Registered User regular
    edited September 2008
    Looks like shareholders will likely be wiped out, yes

    TokyoRaver on
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  • EggyToastEggyToast Jersey CityRegistered User regular
    edited September 2008

    Wait, so what happens to WaMu stock now that JP Morgan has bought their assets and branches?

    Is it now worthless?

    Anything of value has been bought. This is why you don't follow your "gut" when it comes to the stock market. Anything that's a deal will be immediately seen as a deal and snatched up -- it's explained in arbitrage theory, or that arbitrage doesn't exist in an open market because any opportunity to make profit by simply moving money around will be quickly seized upon and equalized.

    EggyToast on
    || Flickr — || PSN: EggyToast
  • SammyFSammyF Registered User regular
    edited September 2008
    You didn't buy the stock, did you? Gloating about a company I've owned for years snatching up the assets of both WaMu and Bear Stearns is not going to be fun if you bet money on Congress moving faster than the market yesterday.

    SammyF on
  • Robos A Go GoRobos A Go Go Registered User regular
    edited September 2008
    Naw, I wasn't going to buy anything until I saw WaMu's name listed among groups that stand to benefit from a finalized bailout plan.

    Anyway, that settles that.

    Robos A Go Go on
  • Limp mooseLimp moose Registered User regular
    edited September 2008
    Don't buy anything for 10 days you wouldn't want to hold for 10 years. Short term buying and selling can make people money. It usually doesn't. If you want to make money in the stock market do your homework and find companies that are regular earners that are currently undervalued due to the current fluctuations and buy them.

    Since many companies are down right now it is a good time to buy. 10 years from now honda will still be honda. Just because they are taking a small dip right now doesn't mean they will stop earning. But do your homework or reap the reward of laziness.

    Limp moose on
  • DalbozDalboz Resident Puppy Eater Right behind you...Registered User regular
    edited September 2008
    I'd let the market settle a bit before buying. I was listening to NPR today, and they were mentioning that a lot of other businesses (aside from finance) are having a hard time because they can't get credit now. So it's going to have a ripple effect for a little while, depending on what kind of bailout deal the feds reach.

    As for WaMu specifically, you probably can't buy the stock now anyway. The fed seized it, and JP Morgan bought the assets from them. The accounts are supposed to be okay (I'm not holding my breath), but the news has specifically stated that WaMu stockholders have been wiped out.

    As for owning JP Morgan Chase, first they buy out Bear Stearns, now WaMu. We'll have to hope that they don't wind up in the hold after this also. Yeah, they're supposed to have more money than God, but that's what they said about the other financial institutions also.

    EDIT: Also, Donald Trump himself recommended last week on CNN that buying a house now is a good idea. With all the foreclosures going on, those houses pretty much sit as debt on the banks books and they're going to be pretty desperate to unload them. I've debated talking to my grandparents (who have a lot of money) about going into a business of buying up some houses, keeping them up and maintained, then reselling them.

    Dalboz on
  • clsCorwinclsCorwin Registered User regular
    edited September 2008
    According to CNN Money, JP Morgan is buying WAMU.

    Edit: Totaly missed page 2 in which this info was revealed already. Nuts.

    clsCorwin on
  • wasted pixelswasted pixels Registered User regular
    edited September 2008
    Dalboz wrote: »
    As for WaMu specifically, you probably can't buy the stock now anyway. The fed seized it, and JP Morgan bought the assets from them. The accounts are supposed to be okay (I'm not holding my breath), but the news has specifically stated that WaMu stockholders have been wiped out.

    That wasn't the case this morning when he originally asked about it. :D

    wasted pixels on
  • TokyoRaverTokyoRaver Registered User regular
    edited September 2008
    Dalboz wrote: »
    I'd let the market settle a bit before buying. I was listening to NPR today, and they were mentioning that a lot of other businesses (aside from finance) are having a hard time because they can't get credit now. So it's going to have a ripple effect for a little while, depending on what kind of bailout deal the feds reach.

    As for WaMu specifically, you probably can't buy the stock now anyway. The fed seized it, and JP Morgan bought the assets from them. The accounts are supposed to be okay (I'm not holding my breath), but the news has specifically stated that WaMu stockholders have been wiped out.

    As for owning JP Morgan Chase, first they buy out Bear Stearns, now WaMu. We'll have to hope that they don't wind up in the hold after this also. Yeah, they're supposed to have more money than God, but that's what they said about the other financial institutions also.

    EDIT: Also, Donald Trump himself recommended last week on CNN that buying a house now is a good idea. With all the foreclosures going on, those houses pretty much sit as debt on the banks books and they're going to be pretty desperate to unload them. I've debated talking to my grandparents (who have a lot of money) about going into a business of buying up some houses, keeping them up and maintained, then reselling them.

    Trust me, you don't need to worry about JPM. 8-)

    TokyoRaver on
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  • SammyFSammyF Registered User regular
    edited September 2008
    Naw, I wasn't going to buy anything until I saw WaMu's name listed among groups that stand to benefit from a finalized bailout plan.

    Anyway, that settles that.

    Good. Woooooooooooooooot!

    EDIT: Also, Donald Trump himself recommended last week on CNN that buying a house now is a good idea. With all the foreclosures going on, those houses pretty much sit as debt on the banks books and they're going to be pretty desperate to unload them. I've debated talking to my grandparents (who have a lot of money) about going into a business of buying up some houses, keeping them up and maintained, then reselling them.

    You know how many times Donald Trump has filed for bankruptcy in his career, right?

    Historically speaking, the price of housing is 14 times the annual cost of renting. At the housing bubble's peak, in many markets that benchmark rose to more than 25 times the annual cost of renting (meaning that there wasn't much more financial incentive to buy rather than rent, except people like buying and hate renting). Housing prices *have* fallen, but they're still no where near the historical benchmark for what constitutes a reasonable sale price.

    Moreover, all these banks like Washington Mutual that keep failing? It's largely because they played a little too fast and loose with their finances. They've since over-corrected and have significantly tightened up their lending standards--but what that means is that whereas two years ago you could get a home with no downpayment on a ridiculously lax mortgage even with mediocre credit, today you have to have nearly perfect credit AND be able to put down between 10-20% of a home's sale value as your downpayment--in many markets that still means being able to drop $100,000 (it does in my housing market). When banks strike a happy medium on lending standards and the market correction finishes, THEN would be a good time to buy a house.

    Unless you already have $100,000 in liquid finances sitting around in your bank account.

    In which case I kind of doubt you're asking for financial advice on the internet from a bunch of gamers.

    SammyF on
  • bowenbowen Sup? Registered User regular
    edited September 2008
    I can get a mortgage for a house with the same square footage of my apartment for $71 a month, tack on taxes that brings that up to $350 something. That's a 50% decrease from my rent. Not only that you build equity with a house, which is a good thing. The only thing you're doing with renting is paying for a place to live that absconds you from maintenance at the very best. Also, if you have a washer and dryer you're saving fucktons of money right there not having to pay for gas to-from a laundromat and paying the absurd cost of using the laundromat.

    In all eventuality, they're pretty neck and neck with costs, but one gives you equity to your name. Also not to mention the only way your payments go up is if your taxes go up, not so necessarily true with an apartment. One's tried to tack on $250 extra a month because the area was developing rapidly.

    Sorry for the tangent, but now is definitely a good time to buy houses, it's a buyer's market. Foreclosed houses can be had for cheap.

    bowen on
    not a doctor, not a lawyer, examples I use may not be fully researched so don't take out of context plz, don't @ me
  • SammyFSammyF Registered User regular
    edited September 2008
    The critical questions, though, Bowen, are:

    1. Can you get a mortgage? Not knowing anything about your finances and treating you like a%

    SammyF on
  • DogDog Registered User, Administrator, Vanilla Staff admin
    edited September 2008
    Investing in a single company's stock based on what you, someone who is most likely an amateur trader, think will happen in the near future is never a smart idea.


    And like others have said, short term investing is such a waste.

    Unknown User on
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