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Darfur

oneeyedjack909oneeyedjack909 Registered User regular
edited December 2008 in Debate and/or Discourse
I found this article to be interesting. Sorry it's in the format that it is.


Beware the Grayman


Seems this fellow is going into Darfur without official funding or permission and organizing the local population of Christians to fight off the Islamic militias that are killing them off. He brings minimal personnel with him and organizes the locals into sniper teams to go on patrol to harass the militias and assassinate high priority targets in the hierarchy of the militias.

He's a private military contractor with special forces and training experience but for obvious reasons remains anonymous and goes by 'Mike'. It is unknown how he funds this and how he gets in country but it is clear that his actions are having an effect.

So what are the moral and legal implications here.

On one hand, by definition he is a war criminal. He is training organizing and directly assisting 'rebel' forces in Africa to kill people.

On the other hand, he is fighting an unjust military group who is committing atrocities on a daily basis while no one does anything about it. He obviously possesses the knowhow and ability to do this sort of thing and is not necessarily threatening the sovereignty of a nation but giving an oppressed people the means to throw of those who would kill them.

So what do you guys think?

"A mans first duty is to his conscience and honor"- Mark Twain

"Those who are willing to give up essential liberties for a little safety diserve neither liberty nor safety"-Benjamin Franklin
oneeyedjack909 on
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Posts

  • FencingsaxFencingsax It is difficult to get a man to understand, when his salary depends upon his not understanding GNU Terry PratchettRegistered User regular
    edited December 2008
    Yeah, this is what we call "making things worse".

    Fencingsax on
  • NintoNinto Registered User regular
    edited December 2008
    Is it? A comparable situation might be giving martial arts classes to women who fear at risk of being raped.

    Teaching and helping these people defend themselves effectively isn't really something a government can officially "do" but there is room for A-team rejects like this guy.

    Ninto on
  • FencingsaxFencingsax It is difficult to get a man to understand, when his salary depends upon his not understanding GNU Terry PratchettRegistered User regular
    edited December 2008
    Ninto wrote: »
    Is it? A comparable situation might be giving martial arts classes to women who fear at risk of being raped.

    Teaching and helping these people defend themselves effectively isn't really something a government can officially "do" but there is room for A-team rejects like this guy.
    I can see how you would come to that conclusion, but 1) Self Defense classes ARE NOT WAR CRIMES; and 2) What he's doing is basically creating another militia. Darfur does not need another militia. It needs order, which is more of a formal occupation force until they can get shit under control, and humanitarian aid.

    Fencingsax on
  • oneeyedjack909oneeyedjack909 Registered User regular
    edited December 2008
    Much like Somalia, Rawanda, and Seirra Leon you normally have to stop the killing before your humanitarian aid can have an effect. Aid workers have a hard time working with their hands cut off and aid does no good if it lines the pockets of warlords.

    oneeyedjack909 on
    "A mans first duty is to his conscience and honor"- Mark Twain

    "Those who are willing to give up essential liberties for a little safety diserve neither liberty nor safety"-Benjamin Franklin
  • FencingsaxFencingsax It is difficult to get a man to understand, when his salary depends upon his not understanding GNU Terry PratchettRegistered User regular
    edited December 2008
    Much like Somalia and Seirra Leon you normally have to stop the killing before your humanitarian aid can have an effect. Aid workers have a hard time working with their hands cut off and aid does no good if it lines the pockets of warlords.
    Yeah, you don't stop the killing by giving more people weapons, you stop the killing by going and stopping the killing. This is the sort of thing the U.N. is for.

    Fencingsax on
  • DerrickDerrick Registered User regular
    edited December 2008
    Fencingsax wrote: »
    Much like Somalia and Seirra Leon you normally have to stop the killing before your humanitarian aid can have an effect. Aid workers have a hard time working with their hands cut off and aid does no good if it lines the pockets of warlords.
    Yeah, you don't stop the killing by giving more people weapons, you stop the killing by going and stopping the killing. This is the sort of thing the U.N. is for.

    And yet, they are doing fuck-all. So, real world practicality comes to call.

    Bereft what people should be doing and are not, is what this guy is doing a good thing?

    I would argue that it is.

    Derrick on
    Steam and CFN: Enexemander
  • RecklessReckless Registered User regular
    edited December 2008
    What this guy is doing is a terrible thing. He's going to be increasing the rate of militarization of the public, which is NOT good for stability in the region and will only serve to make a peaceful settlement harder.

    Fast-forward a bit. Imagine the greater conflict in Sudan is settled. Now, you've got a need for setting up a new government and power structure, and there's going to be a lot of people and groups that will want a slice of that pie. Having them all armed will not contribute to making sure that process of democratization runs smoothly. At all.

    Also, while the Darfur situation is tragic, I often wish people would pay attention to the Great Lakes region as well. Uganda has just this week announced a re-launching of a full military campaign against Joesph Kony's LRA in the north. Which is bad because peace talks failed, but awesome because if the Ugandans and Congolese fuck Kony's shit up, we may see the end of military child abduction in Northern Uganda. Finally.

    Reckless on
  • StufStuf Registered User regular
    edited December 2008
    I don't know if this is a good thing, though it seems as if it's done with good intentions.

    What should be considered in the training of a militia are all of the consequences, not just the immediate ones. The idea of harassing the other militias with sniper fire seems like a good idea, but when considered in context of what a militia might do to retaliate, I doubt it is a good idea.

    This is a very brutal war. "Mike" won't be able to bring enough munitions in for his guerrilla troops to do much more than harass (I assume). Many innocent civilians could die as a result.

    The biggest pitfall in this plan might be training a specific group, ie Zaghawa. That, most certainly, will only serve to increase tensions.

    Does anyone have any more information on what this "Mike" is doing?

    Stuf on
    “There are... things which a man is afraid to tell even to himself, and every decent man has a number of such things stored away in his mind.” -Fyodor Dostoevsky
  • StufStuf Registered User regular
    edited December 2008
    Reckless wrote: »
    Fast-forward a bit. Imagine the greater conflict in Sudan is settled. Now, you've got a need for setting up a new government and power structure, and there's going to be a lot of people and groups that will want a slice of that pie. Having them all armed will not contribute to making sure that process of democratization runs smoothly. At all.

    While this is somewhat true, I wonder if you would offer a solution to the major problem: how does the conflict get resolved?

    Stuf on
    “There are... things which a man is afraid to tell even to himself, and every decent man has a number of such things stored away in his mind.” -Fyodor Dostoevsky
  • RichyRichy Registered User regular
    edited December 2008
    Derrick wrote: »
    Fencingsax wrote: »
    Much like Somalia and Seirra Leon you normally have to stop the killing before your humanitarian aid can have an effect. Aid workers have a hard time working with their hands cut off and aid does no good if it lines the pockets of warlords.
    Yeah, you don't stop the killing by giving more people weapons, you stop the killing by going and stopping the killing. This is the sort of thing the U.N. is for.

    And yet, they are doing fuck-all. So, real world practicality comes to call.

    Bereft what people should be doing and are not, is what this guy is doing a good thing?

    I would argue that it is.
    I'd have to agree with the "good" camp here. As much as I abhor violence and would advocate a peaceful solution, the UN and world governments willfully and actively refusing to acknowledge and intervene in this conflict leave no choice. It's either arm and organize these people to help them fight back, or let them get slaughtered.

    Richy on
    sig.gif
  • PicardathonPicardathon Registered User regular
    edited December 2008
    Fencingsax wrote: »
    Much like Somalia and Seirra Leon you normally have to stop the killing before your humanitarian aid can have an effect. Aid workers have a hard time working with their hands cut off and aid does no good if it lines the pockets of warlords.
    Yeah, you don't stop the killing by giving more people weapons, you stop the killing by going and stopping the killing. This is the sort of thing the U.N. is for.

    Yes, but the UN has been completely hamstrung by politics, and it is obvious that nothing will happen until this genocide ends of its own accord and we are all told to feel bad for not doing anything about it.
    Well, this guy is doing something about it.

    Picardathon on
  • StufStuf Registered User regular
    edited December 2008
    Richy wrote: »
    Derrick wrote: »
    Fencingsax wrote: »
    Much like Somalia and Seirra Leon you normally have to stop the killing before your humanitarian aid can have an effect. Aid workers have a hard time working with their hands cut off and aid does no good if it lines the pockets of warlords.
    Yeah, you don't stop the killing by giving more people weapons, you stop the killing by going and stopping the killing. This is the sort of thing the U.N. is for.

    And yet, they are doing fuck-all. So, real world practicality comes to call.

    Bereft what people should be doing and are not, is what this guy is doing a good thing?

    I would argue that it is.
    I'd have to agree with the "good" camp here. As much as I abhor violence and would advocate a peaceful solution, the UN and world governments willfully and actively refusing to acknowledge and intervene in this conflict leave no choice. It's either arm and organize these people to help them fight back, or let them get slaughtered.

    The UN doesn't really have much recourse in this situation. Without the Sudanese government asking for help, they are forced to respect sovereignty and do nothing.

    Stuf on
    “There are... things which a man is afraid to tell even to himself, and every decent man has a number of such things stored away in his mind.” -Fyodor Dostoevsky
  • PicardathonPicardathon Registered User regular
    edited December 2008
    Reckless wrote: »
    What this guy is doing is a terrible thing. He's going to be increasing the rate of militarization of the public, which is NOT good for stability in the region and will only serve to make a peaceful settlement harder.

    Fast-forward a bit. Imagine the greater conflict in Sudan is settled. Now, you've got a need for setting up a new government and power structure, and there's going to be a lot of people and groups that will want a slice of that pie. Having them all armed will not contribute to making sure that process of democratization runs smoothly. At all.

    Also, while the Darfur situation is tragic, I often wish people would pay attention to the Great Lakes region as well. Uganda has just this week announced a re-launching of a full military campaign against Joesph Kony's LRA in the north. Which is bad because peace talks failed, but awesome because if the Ugandans and Congolese fuck Kony's shit up, we may see the end of military child abduction in Northern Uganda. Finally.

    I thought Kony was dead?
    And I understand that good things happen in Africa, it's just that, from a western point of view, bad things happen there more than anywhere else (and yes, I know it's the fault of Old Europe, Russia, and America, no need to go there)

    Picardathon on
  • ThomamelasThomamelas Only one man can kill this many Russians. Bring his guitar to me! Registered User regular
    edited December 2008
    I found this article to be interesting. Sorry it's in the format that it is.


    Beware the Grayman


    Seems this fellow is going into Darfur without official funding or permission and organizing the local population of Christians to fight off the Islamic militias that are killing them off. He brings minimal personnel with him and organizes the locals into sniper teams to go on patrol to harass the militias and assassinate high priority targets in the hierarchy of the militias.

    He's a private military contractor with special forces and training experience but for obvious reasons remains anonymous and goes by 'Mike'. It is unknown how he funds this and how he gets in country but it is clear that his actions are having an effect.

    So what are the moral and legal implications here.

    On one hand, by definition he is a war criminal. He is training organizing and directly assisting 'rebel' forces in Africa to kill people.

    On the other hand, he is fighting an unjust military group who is committing atrocities on a daily basis while no one does anything about it. He obviously possesses the knowhow and ability to do this sort of thing and is not necessarily threatening the sovereignty of a nation but giving an oppressed people the means to throw of those who would kill them.

    So what do you guys think?

    Maybe I missed it, but what war crime is he committing? I'm willing to believe I missed something but didn't see anything on that site that indicated an actual war crime being committed.

    Also, how do we know this guy isn't just a mall ninja with a better marketing department?

    Thomamelas on
  • RecklessReckless Registered User regular
    edited December 2008
    The conflict in Darfur gets resolved when the international community ceases to utterly turn it's back and the Sudanese stop being stubborn about assistance. "Never Again" my ass. People need to get vocal about it - very vocal. A major reason for the end of Apartheid was the pressure put on the National Party by other nations. There was enough popular disgust with the NA's government-by-racism that the United States Congress was able to override Reagan's veto and sanction the South African government.

    While that's nowhere near what needs to be done to the Sudanese government, that's an example of what popular international consensus can do. We need to get higher-ups to start calling this a genocide. If it wasn't for the failure of humanitarian intervention in Somalia, things would be getting done already.

    And Kony's still alive, kickin', and abducting children to fight in his army because rational adults realize he is fuck-crazy and don't sign up.

    Reckless on
  • ThomamelasThomamelas Only one man can kill this many Russians. Bring his guitar to me! Registered User regular
    edited December 2008
    Reckless wrote: »
    The conflict in Darfur gets resolved when the international community ceases to utterly turn it's back. "Never Again" my ass. People need to get vocal about it - very vocal. A major reason for the end of Apartheid was the pressure put on the National Party by other nations. There was enough popular disgust with the NA's government-by-racism that the United States Congress was able to override Reagan's veto and sanction the South African government.

    While that's nowhere near what needs to be done to the Sudanese government, that's an example of what popular international consensus can do. We need to get higher-ups to start calling this a genocide. If it wasn't for the failure of humanitarian intervention in Somalia, things would be getting done already.

    Are you advocating war? Or are you advocating 40 years of political pressure? Because 40 years is a long time to let a campaign of genocide go on.

    Thomamelas on
  • RecklessReckless Registered User regular
    edited December 2008
    Thomamelas wrote: »
    Are you advocating war? Or are you advocating 40 years of political pressure? Because 40 years is a long time to let a campaign of genocide go on.

    I'm advocating coordinated military action to put down the militias followed by intelligent state-building and democratization.

    Reckless on
  • ThomamelasThomamelas Only one man can kill this many Russians. Bring his guitar to me! Registered User regular
    edited December 2008
    Reckless wrote: »
    Thomamelas wrote: »
    Are you advocating war? Or are you advocating 40 years of political pressure? Because 40 years is a long time to let a campaign of genocide go on.

    I'm advocating coordinated military action to put down the militias followed by intelligent state-building and democratization.

    By whom?

    Thomamelas on
  • StufStuf Registered User regular
    edited December 2008
    Reckless wrote: »
    Thomamelas wrote: »
    Are you advocating war? Or are you advocating 40 years of political pressure? Because 40 years is a long time to let a campaign of genocide go on.

    I'm advocating coordinated military action to put down the militias followed by intelligent state-building and democratization.

    If at all possible, could you put more detail into this? The terms are very vague, with "coordinated military action" and "intelligent state-building" being the biggest offenders.

    Do you want to kill the militia leaders? Put a peacekeeping force in place? What will the mandate be?

    not to say your answer is incorrect at all, I'm just wondering where you're coming from.

    Stuf on
    “There are... things which a man is afraid to tell even to himself, and every decent man has a number of such things stored away in his mind.” -Fyodor Dostoevsky
  • RecklessReckless Registered User regular
    edited December 2008
    I wouldn't mind seeing ECOMOG get involved. They did decently in Sierra Leone and Liberia and I always like to see Africans solving African problems.

    The claims of rebel groups need to be addressed to figure out if there's any validity, like the situation with the calls for a Palestinian state. Once the rebel groups are sufficiently dealt with in a military situation and lack the capacity to conduct further military operations themselves, they'll be more likely to come to the bargaining table.

    Reckless on
  • ElkiElki get busy Moderator, ClubPA Mod Emeritus
    edited December 2008
    That article is a fucking joke.

    SPLA rebels have little to do with Darfur, and nobody's fighting Al Qaeda in Southern Sudan. Government-armed militias from northern herding tribes are fighting militas from traditional southern tribes. And southerners aren't a Christian minority; animist outnumber Christians 5 to 1, but for some reason people have to refer to the South as Christian, because I guess it's easier for American evangelists to care that way.

    And the live-saving-militias line in the end is just priceless, but it wouldn't stand a cursory inspection on anyone who cared to read for minutes from any reputable human rights organization on what those militias do.

    Elki on
    smCQ5WE.jpg
  • QliphothQliphoth Registered User regular
    edited December 2008
    I don't see a problem with his actions as without his help any resolution to the conflict is likely to be long after all of these people are dead.

    edit: they're probably mistaking arabs for muslims and the non arab tribes for christians, though an article with such a poor understanding of the conflict probably has many other facts wrong also.

    Qliphoth on
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
  • CervetusCervetus Registered User regular
    edited December 2008
    Honestly I've had daydreams where I do something similar to this. The way I see it, the genocide could only get worse if the janjaweed got more powerful, and this is doing the opposite of that. In the long run this might lead to a civil war, but honestly I think war is preferable to slaughter.
    Elki wrote: »
    And southerners aren't a Christian minority; animist outnumber Christians 5 to 1, but for some reason people have to refer to the South as Christian, because I guess it's easier for American evangelists to care that way.
    Indeed, people like painting this variously as a religious and ethnic thing, when really it's a cultural/political issue.

    Cervetus on
  • fjafjanfjafjan Registered User regular
    edited December 2008
    I mean first off this guy is massively missguided, and so that most likely hurts not his motive but his execution. That whole article, including the part written by "grayman" himself, stinks of Islamophobia and ignorance. Invaded Iraq to fight terrorism? The "real front of Islamic extremisms persecution of Christians"?

    As for what this guy actually does the article is really damn vague, so honestly I couldn't tell you if it's good or bad.

    fjafjan on
    Yepp, THE Fjafjan (who's THE fjafjan?)
    - "Proving once again the deadliest animal of all ... is the Zoo Keeper" - Philip J Fry
  • ThomamelasThomamelas Only one man can kill this many Russians. Bring his guitar to me! Registered User regular
    edited December 2008
    Reckless wrote: »
    I wouldn't mind seeing ECOMOG get involved. They did decently in Sierra Leone and Liberia and I always like to see Africans solving African problems.

    The claims of rebel groups need to be addressed to figure out if there's any validity, like the situation with the calls for a Palestinian state. Once the rebel groups are sufficiently dealt with in a military situation and lack the capacity to conduct further military operations themselves, they'll be more likely to come to the bargaining table.

    Unless ECOMOG pulls a rabbit out of their hat and Sudan simply allows them into the country there is no way they would be able to accomplish anything. The armies who contribute to ECOMOG aren't noted for their massive military spending and I'd have to look it up but are they able to provide anything more then 20,000 troops? I seem to recall them having under 15,000 available for all projects. Sudan on the other hand has a much larger and better equiped force. They aren't going to fight their way in and they aren't going to be invited.

    The U.N. and N.A.T.O. can get away with that. No one wants to pick a fight with someone who can bring much, much more firepower to bear. ECOWAS doesn't have that luxury.

    Thomamelas on
  • ElkiElki get busy Moderator, ClubPA Mod Emeritus
    edited December 2008
    Quota, quota, gotta get paid. Article on Darfur that doesn't involve moronity.


    WITH his outstretched arms shaking in gestures of anger and bewilderment, John stands in the charred remains of his little family compound in the central Sudanese town of Abyei. The four tukuls, or traditional huts, that used to house his wife and nine children have been incinerated. His pickup truck, too, has been overturned and burned. The attack happened only five months ago, but already the weeds and brush of the surrounding swampland are covering the last traces of a happy family life.

    Abyei was once a thriving market town. But it is also the capital of a region that straddles the bloody fault-line in Sudan between the Muslim Arab tribes of the north of the country and the African, mainly Christian and animist, tribes of the south. In May heavy fighting broke out in Abyei between the northern government’s army and the southern Sudan People’s Liberation Army (SPLA), which are supposed to have stopped fighting each other since the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA), signed in 2005, ostensibly ended more than 40 years of north-south war.

    The firefight that destroyed John’s compound was bad enough. But the whole town was looted, and then burned to the ground, in the days that followed the fighting. The culprits were the traditional enemies of the Dinka people, the armed militias of the Arab Misseriya tribe. All John’s most valuable possessions were taken: his generator, the two small television sets that it powered and the family’s cooking utensils. By all accounts, much of this has been put up for sale in the Misseriya town of el-Muglad, about 150km (93 miles) to the north. The market there has been nicknamed “Abyei” after the plentiful supply of goods on sale from the looted town.

    At least John has a good job, as a driver for the United Nations. He may be able to rebuild his life. Thousands of his fellow Dinka in this impoverished region are not so lucky. Forced to flee Abyei, they now live in a sprawl of hastily erected huts about 40km south, at Agok, where they survive largely on help from foreign aid-workers. In the jargon of international relief agencies, they have become “Internally Displaced Persons”. And like many other millions of Sudanese who are refugees in their own country, these Dinka have no plans to return to the little that is left of their old way of life until security improves—which may take a long time. The charred remains of John’s former home are virtually opposite the front entrance to the UN military base in Abyei. Those soldiers could do nothing to help him.

    The story of Abyei is stark proof that the underlying causes of north-south conflict in Sudan have not changed. Much of it is sparked by feelings of marginalisation. Just to the east of the town, for example, are the Chinese-run oilfields around the town of Heglig. These supply the northern government in Khartoum with most of its substantial revenues and help to fund a building and consumer boom in the capital. But the local Dinka derive no benefit from this money. They are not even allowed into the area around Heglig, though it is part of their old homeland.

    Mistrust also continues between the largely nomadic Arab tribes of the north, like the Misseriya, supported and armed by the northern Islamist government for its own political purposes, and the settled African farmers of the south, both Christian and Muslim. Migrations of heavily armed Arab cattle-herders into the lusher wetlands of the Dinka at the beginning of each dry season have caused violence for decades. This year’s migrations south have already started, and, especially after the torching of Abyei, everyone is preparing for more trouble.

    Yet the fighting between northern and southern Sudan is only one part of it. The western province of Darfur is also riven by a war between the government and rebel forces that erupted in 2003. At first this was a straightforward battle pitting the Sudanese army, together with the Arab militias, the infamous janjaweed, against two main rebel groups, the Justice and Equality Movement and the Sudan Liberation Army. Now, however, the nature of the conflict in Darfur has mutated, making the violence more unpredictable and widespread and the task of getting a lasting peace deal that much harder. The janjaweed militias have fragmented, fighting among themselves and occasionally against the Sudanese army, especially when they have not been paid. The rebels, too, have fractured into about 30 groups of varying size and seriousness. These roam around the province, and several are kidnapping and killing the very aid-workers who help their own people.

    The continuing violence has produced, according to the UN, 300,000 internal refugees in Darfur since January alone, the highest rate of displacement for several years. About 2.7m people are now crowding into overflowing makeshift camps in Darfur itself, and about another 300,000 are in camps over the border in Chad. In all about 5m Darfuris, out of a population of 6m at the last official count in 2002, are either in camps or are relying on aid to survive. And as many as 300,000 have probably died as a result of the conflict.

    With 17,000 or so local and foreign aid-workers in Darfur trying to help the victims, the relief operation is still the largest of its kind in the world. But the work is more and more hazardous, and access to the refugees has become increasingly restricted. Eleven humanitarian workers have been killed this year and 179 kidnapped. Some 237 aid vehicles have also been hijacked this year, already double the number for 2007. The UN in Darfur has moved to its highest level of alert before full evacuation. All non-essential staff have left.

    The United Nations African Mission in Darfur (UNAMID), the peacekeepers who have been mandated by the Security Council and the African Union to prevent the violence, remain based at el-Fasher, the capital of Darfur. But with only about 10,000 often ineffectual troops and police, well short of the 26,000 that were promised by the end of this year, UNAMID remains pretty impotent. As a result, it is already losing the respect of Darfuris. They had hoped that this force, unlike the previous pathetic outfit provided by the African Union, would finally give them protection from the marauding janjaweed and bandits who kill and rape them. They were wrong.

    Breaking the stalemate

    These trend-lines in Darfur have become depressingly familiar over the past few years. The various “peace processes” to try to resolve the conflict have repeatedly foundered on a mixture of government intransigence and intrigue, rebel divisions and foreign meddling, notably by Chad. For all the vast international effort put into improving the situation in Darfur, the thousands of UN and diplomatic man-hours and the hundreds of millions of dollars in aid, little has changed.

    CFB919.gif

    The same stagnation and sense of helplessness is evident elsewhere in Sudan. The peace agreement of 2005 between north and south agreed, for example, to share the wealth, integrate the two sides’ armies and settle the boundary between them. All these proposals were designed to create the New Sudan that southerners dream of: an integrated, federal and multiethnic nation that, for the first time in decades, could live at peace with itself. In fact, progress in all these areas has been slow or almost non-existent. Neither the northern government nor the Government of South Sudan, which now runs the semi-autonomous south, has invested much in making unity “attractive”, as the CPA demands. The peace agreement gives southerners the right to hold a referendum to secede from Sudan in 2011. At the moment, this is what many southerners are really preparing for.

    But in the past few weeks three newish factors have coalesced to create a set of circumstances that could shake the country up: for better, if matters are handled carefully, or for much worse. The first is the prospect of national elections next year; the second is the beginning of proceedings against President Omar al-Bashir by the International Criminal Court (ICC) on charges of genocide over Darfur; and the third is the election of Barack Obama as the next president of the United States. Each of these factors, on its own, would not bother Mr Bashir much. But the three together are now putting considerable pressure on him to change course in Darfur and get serious about peace with the south.

    Elections were forced on the northern government and the SPLM, the political wing of the SPLA, by foreign donor governments as their price for giving billions of dollars-worth of money to rebuild Sudan after the 2005 peace deal. These elections have always offered the best chance of ending Mr Bashir’s repressive government, which came to power by overthrowing Sudan’s last democratic government in a coup in 1989.

    CFB483.gif

    Mr Bashir and his henchmen in the National Congress Party (NCP) are genuinely fearful of elections. They know that if even vaguely free and fair ballots were to take place throughout Sudan, they would lose heavily. Salva Kiir, the leader of the SPLM, might well win instead if he ran as the candidate promising to stand up for the marginalised people of all Sudan, in the south, the east and Darfur; there are plenty of them. Such an alliance might at last create the New Sudan, the vision of John Garang, the first leader of the SPLM, who died in a helicopter crash in 2005. A census, albeit an imperfect one, has already taken place to form the basis of voter registration, and under the terms of the CPA an election should take place by next summer.

    The Obama factor

    If Mr Bashir loses, it may also be easier for the ICC to haul him off to The Hague. Again, despite what they say in public, not only Mr Bashir but the entire government is anxious about the ICC. The regime’s hardliners—the heads of the army, the intelligence and the internal security services, all directly responsible for much of the mayhem in Darfur—know that they could be next on the indictment list. Many people in Sudan, and almost everyone in Darfur, would be delighted if they were. The whole country is waiting to see whether the ICC judges act on the chief prosecutor’s recommendation, made in July, to issue a warrant for Mr Bashir’s arrest. A decision is expected towards the end of December.

    And now there is President-elect Obama to contend with. Sudan may be the only country in the world where President George Bush is popular and the Democrats loathed and feared, at least by the regime. Mr Bush gave huge political backing to the peace between the north and south, but the Sudanese also remember that it was President Bill Clinton who launched an attack on Sudan in 1998. He fired cruise missiles into a pharmaceutical plant in Khartoum North (mistaking it for a bomb-making factory) in retaliation for al-Qaeda attacks on American embassies in Kenya and Tanzania. The present regime was the incubator for Osama bin Laden and al-Qaeda in the mid-1990s.

    The Sudanese government knows that a new Obama administration will probably be full of former Clintonites who have spent the past eight years furiously organising campaigns against Sudan over what they call the “genocide” in Darfur. These people, like Gayle Smith, tipped to be Obama’s senior diplomat in charge of African affairs, all have long experience of Sudan and are fierce critics of the Sudanese government. They are less likely than their Republican predecessors to go softly on Mr Bashir’s government for the sake of the titbits of intelligence on al-Qaeda that the Sudanese intelligence services like giving to the Americans.

    This matters tremendously to the Sudanese. The government’s priority has always been to come off the American list of state sponsors of terror, to repair its severed relations with the West in general and to see the end of the economic sanctions against it. America can deliver all this in return for improvements in Darfur, elections and much else. The Obama factor is already at work here. The argument to the Sudanese is: “Cut a deal now—or expect much worse come January.” The result is, as one Western diplomat puts it, “a government in full conciliation mode”, firmly on the back foot.

    Appeasement and threats

    So Mr Bashir has been striking all the right notes recently. The government has been slightly less obstructive to UNAMID, for example. And last week, at a posh forum on Darfur in Khartoum, with foreign diplomats, ministers and even the odd head of state present, Mr Bashir endorsed, in a general way, a document that could give the Darfur rebels most of what they want. Compensation, the return of refugees to their homes and the appointment of a new vice-president for Darfur are all, apparently, on the table. The Qataris, fresh from success in Lebanon, have volunteered to mediate with the rebels and to host a peace conference. There is a vague hope that Qatar will fork out the hundreds of millions of dollars in compensation that may be needed to win the rebels over.

    The president even announced, dramatically, a ceasefire by government forces in Darfur. This grabbed the headlines, but he has announced a ceasefire several times before and nothing has ever happened. This makes many people sceptical of his real intentions. The rebels, who were unrepresented at Mr Bashir’s forum, immediately rejected his ceasefire call.

    Indeed, as the same Western diplomat points out, all Mr Bashir’s recent promises to reform his ways are, as usual, “easily reversible”. He is trying to do just enough to persuade countries at the UN to vote for a deferral of the ICC case against him, as they have the power to do. Most African and Arab countries support him on this. But he needs to convince some Western countries, and preferably America as well, while the going is relatively good.

    And if no one is persuaded by Mr Bashir’s promises of future good behaviour, foreign countries certainly have to think hard about the Sudanese government’s likely response if the ICC does issue its arrest warrant. Most opposition politicians presume that, at the very least, full elections will never happen. A lot of semi-plausible excuses will be trotted out: an incomplete census, a long rainy season, the lack of voter education. But ultimately, as Adam Madibu, the deputy chairman of the opposition Umma party, says: “The election is the best way to get the transformation of Sudan, and we will have lost it.” And the SPLM leadership, unfortunately, may well collude in that. They fear the schisms and divisions that elections could open up in their own ranks. An unaccountable SPLM would be perfectly happy to get through to its own referendum in 2011 without elections.

    Losing the opportunity to vote Mr Bashir out of power would drive many Sudanese to despair. There are dark mutterings of a coup against him by moderates in his own party. They could at least get a new, more palatable figurehead for international consumption and then shield Mr Bashir from the ICC. But this would hardly “transform” Sudan. Another, more remote, possibility is a popular uprising. There have been two against unpopular military rulers in the years since Sudan’s independence in 1956. But the security apparatus is more pervasive and onerous now than it has ever been, especially in Khartoum.

    Already, NGOs on the ground in Darfur are suffering from a government backlash prompted by the ICC charges against Mr Bashir. Harassment by security officials has got much worse. The goons have spent days in NGO offices haranguing staff to hand over sensitive documents and computer files which, they suspect, could have been used as evidence against Mr Bashir. In particular, officials have been targeting projects that help women recover from sexual violence. The massive use of rape as a weapon in the army’s counter-insurgency war is a critical part of the ICC case. If a warrant is issued, the harassment will surely worsen to the point where many counselling projects will be shut down, as at least one has been already.

    Mr Bashir could also turn on his former enemies in the south by simply reducing the share of oil money they get. Already, there is concern about the incompetence of the government there and the lack of economic and social development. A large proportion of the SPLM’s small revenue goes on new weapons, such as, it is widely assumed, the T-72 tanks now stuck off the Somali coast. If a weak south does move towards secession against a surly, hostile north, diplomats fear that the resulting conflict would create a whole swathe of instability in Africa, from Somalia across south Sudan to eastern Congo—another place where a peace agreement has unravelled with awful consequences.

    Among Mr Bush’s first orders to his National Security Council in January 2001 was the drawing up of a new policy on Sudan. Mr Obama, who will be taking office more or less at the moment when the ICC is expected to issue its warrant, needs a new policy even more badly. But at least he will not be short of advice.
    There. Much better than Christian persecution bullshit and movie fantasies about good militias.

    Elki on
    smCQ5WE.jpg
  • fjafjanfjafjan Registered User regular
    edited December 2008
    Yay, Elki comes to save the thread/day.

    fjafjan on
    Yepp, THE Fjafjan (who's THE fjafjan?)
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  • RecklessReckless Registered User regular
    edited December 2008
    Thomamelas wrote: »
    Unless ECOMOG pulls a rabbit out of their hat and Sudan simply allows them into the country there is no way they would be able to accomplish anything. The armies who contribute to ECOMOG aren't noted for their massive military spending and I'd have to look it up but are they able to provide anything more then 20,000 troops? I seem to recall them having under 15,000 available for all projects. Sudan on the other hand has a much larger and better equiped force. They aren't going to fight their way in and they aren't going to be invited.

    The U.N. and N.A.T.O. can get away with that. No one wants to pick a fight with someone who can bring much, much more firepower to bear. ECOWAS doesn't have that luxury.

    An excellent point, but I'm just saying I'd like to see ECOMOG or another African entity involved in some capacity, not necessarily as the full counter-rebel force.

    Edit: And one more effective than the AU troops. They just don't seem to care. At least a regional group like ECOMOG/ECOWAS has a stake in regional stability.

    Reckless on
  • MolotovCockatooMolotovCockatoo Registered User regular
    edited December 2008
    I'm... pretty sure that article was just an ad for knives. Knives that are somehow better because they look like trash I guess? Like 'pre-worn' jeans.

    "I know this one guy, he's so hardcore I can't tell you his real name. He fights Al-Qaeda alone in the jungle and he makes his own knives one by one by hand, then sells them on his website." Right. "OH YEA DUDES and the knives all have 'Death to Al-Qaeda' etched on them!!" Why isn't there a *wanking motion* emoticon?
    (...Kinda want to buy a knife now...)

    MolotovCockatoo on
    Killjoy wrote: »
    No jeez Orik why do you assume the worst about people?

    Because he moderates an internet forum

    http://lexiconmegatherium.tumblr.com/
  • ThomamelasThomamelas Only one man can kill this many Russians. Bring his guitar to me! Registered User regular
    edited December 2008
    Reckless wrote: »
    Thomamelas wrote: »
    Unless ECOMOG pulls a rabbit out of their hat and Sudan simply allows them into the country there is no way they would be able to accomplish anything. The armies who contribute to ECOMOG aren't noted for their massive military spending and I'd have to look it up but are they able to provide anything more then 20,000 troops? I seem to recall them having under 15,000 available for all projects. Sudan on the other hand has a much larger and better equiped force. They aren't going to fight their way in and they aren't going to be invited.

    The U.N. and N.A.T.O. can get away with that. No one wants to pick a fight with someone who can bring much, much more firepower to bear. ECOWAS doesn't have that luxury.

    An excellent point, but I'm just saying I'd like to see ECOMOG or another African entity involved in some capacity, not necessarily as the full counter-rebel force.

    Edit: And one more effective than the AU troops. They just don't seem to care. At least a regional group like ECOMOG/ECOWAS has a stake in regional stability.

    I'd like to see Africans dealing with the problems on their continent. But ECOMOG isn't very good at being peacekeepers. Too much of Africa is at the tools to build the tools stage of government. And while the ECOWAS countries are pretty stable, they suffer from being dirt poor and lacking a solid, experianced professional army. And they aren't going to get the learning they need in time to make a difference in Darfur.

    My great hope is that ECOWAS will promote regional economic growth. With economic growth will come education. With education comes the best hope for a stable democracy. But that's a long way away. And it's Africa.

    Edit:
    I'm... pretty sure that article was just an ad for knives. Knives that are somehow better because they look like trash I guess? Like 'pre-worn' jeans.

    "I know this one guy, he's so hardcore I can't tell you his real name. He fights Al-Qaeda alone in the jungle and he makes his own knives one by one by hand, then sells them on his website." Right. "OH YEA DUDES and the knives all have 'Death to Al-Qaeda' etched on them!!" Why isn't there a *wanking motion* emoticon?

    It did scream mall ninja to me.

    Thomamelas on
  • RecklessReckless Registered User regular
    edited December 2008
    Thomamelas wrote: »
    My great hope is that ECOWAS will promote regional economic growth. With economic growth will come education. With education comes the best hope for a stable democracy. But that's a long way away. And it's Africa.

    See, I think your steps are missing something. Regional growth around the Sudan would be damned nice, but I don't think it will do anything to promote stability inside of Sudan. If anything, we'd be seeing plenty more refugee movement as precedented by the South Africa -> Botswana movement during apartheid and the Zimbabwe -> South Africa movement of today.

    For Sudan, political stability needs to come before economic growth can even be considered. I need to do much more research on the situation to start theorizing about how to really achieve that stability, though. My attention has been focused on Zimbabwe for the past few months.

    Reckless on
  • ThorionThorion __BANNED USERS regular
    edited December 2008
    Darfur?

    Bless you!

    Thorion on
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  • unknownsome1unknownsome1 Registered User regular
    edited December 2008
    Personally, I think this contractor is doing the right thing by teaching the people in Darfur how to fight against the extremists who are trying to eradicate them. I salute "Mike" for actually stepping up to do something while the UN just sits on its hands like it did in Rwanda during the genocide there. Sometimes, people need to fight back and be able to do so in order to stop those who would harm them.

    unknownsome1 on
  • unknownsome1unknownsome1 Registered User regular
    edited December 2008
    Fencingsax wrote: »
    Much like Somalia and Seirra Leon you normally have to stop the killing before your humanitarian aid can have an effect. Aid workers have a hard time working with their hands cut off and aid does no good if it lines the pockets of warlords.
    Yeah, you don't stop the killing by giving more people weapons, you stop the killing by going and stopping the killing. This is the sort of thing the U.N. is for.

    Giving decent people weapons and training them can give them the capability of ending the killing by stopping the murderers. As for getting the U.N. involved, the U.N. sat on its hands in Rwanda during the genocide there. Innocent people were butchered and the U.N. just kept sitting on its hands. Also, let's not forget the Oil for Food Scandal that went on in the U.N. If you ask me, the U.N. cannot be trusted anymore. It has proven to me to be a failure.

    unknownsome1 on
  • ThomamelasThomamelas Only one man can kill this many Russians. Bring his guitar to me! Registered User regular
    edited December 2008
    Reckless wrote: »
    Thomamelas wrote: »
    My great hope is that ECOWAS will promote regional economic growth. With economic growth will come education. With education comes the best hope for a stable democracy. But that's a long way away. And it's Africa.

    See, I think your steps are missing something. Regional growth around the Sudan would be damned nice, but I don't think it will do anything to promote stability inside of Sudan. If anything, we'd be seeing plenty more refugee movement as precedented by the South Africa -> Botswana movement during apartheid and the Zimbabwe -> South Africa movement of today.

    For Sudan, political stability needs to come before economic growth can even be considered. I need to do much more research on the situation to start theorizing about how to really achieve that stability, though. My attention has been focused on Zimbabwe for the past few months.

    Sorry, I should have been clearer. I wasn't referring to Economic growth in Sudan but ECOWAS itself. I would love very much for them to be able to be a valid peacekeeping force for Africa but they need a better economic base and the better governments that will come out of that. That's the point in which they can start to become a really effective force for stability in Africa.

    As for Sudan...it's going to simply require someone to be able to get lots of troops into the area. And at the moment...no one can.

    Thomamelas on
  • zakkielzakkiel Registered User regular
    edited December 2008
    Elki wrote: »
    Quota, quota, gotta get paid. Article on Darfur that doesn't involve moronity.

    *snip*

    There. Much better than Christian persecution bullshit and movie fantasies about good militias.

    Yes, it's been replaced with movie fantasies about Obama bringin' down the hammer on evil-doers. The Economist is a fun paper but not the most substantive pieces of journalism.

    zakkiel on
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  • AegisAegis Fear My Dance Overshot Toronto, Landed in OttawaRegistered User regular
    edited December 2008
    Cervetus wrote: »
    Honestly I've had daydreams where I do something similar to this. The way I see it, the genocide could only get worse if the janjaweed got more powerful, and this is doing the opposite of that. In the long run this might lead to a civil war, but honestly I think war is preferable to slaughter.
    Elki wrote: »
    And southerners aren't a Christian minority; animist outnumber Christians 5 to 1, but for some reason people have to refer to the South as Christian, because I guess it's easier for American evangelists to care that way.
    Indeed, people like painting this variously as a religious and ethnic thing, when really it's a cultural/political issue.

    It's definitely a political thing, catalyzed by environmental problems and just happening to split down ethnic/religious lines because oh, hey, the two main lifestyles (farmers and shepherds) happened to just be of one ethnicity or another.

    No idea for a solution myself at the moment besides somehow getting a working government or something providing services and attempting to calm the violence, but I don't see that happening.

    Aegis on
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  • duallainduallain Registered User regular
    edited December 2008
    Giving decent people weapons and training them can give them the capability of ending the killing by stopping the murderers. As for getting the U.N. involved, the U.N. sat on its hands in Rwanda during the genocide there. Innocent people were butchered and the U.N. just kept sitting on its hands. Also, let's not forget the Oil for Food Scandal that went on in the U.N. If you ask me, the U.N. cannot be trusted anymore. It has proven to me to be a failure.
    How do you tell the 'decent people' from those people who just want to kill someone with it?

    duallain on
  • ScalfinScalfin __BANNED USERS regular
    edited December 2008
    duallain wrote: »
    Giving decent people weapons and training them can give them the capability of ending the killing by stopping the murderers. As for getting the U.N. involved, the U.N. sat on its hands in Rwanda during the genocide there. Innocent people were butchered and the U.N. just kept sitting on its hands. Also, let's not forget the Oil for Food Scandal that went on in the U.N. If you ask me, the U.N. cannot be trusted anymore. It has proven to me to be a failure.
    How do you tell the 'decent people' from those people who just want to kill someone with it?

    Besides that, it seem more like he's just trying to give the local Christians an advantage over their Muslim neighbors.

    Scalfin on
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  • BelketreBelketre Registered User regular
    edited December 2008
    This guy isn't exactly doing anything new.
    The company I worked for walked out of the Sudan quite some time back because nobody cared. We were doing pretty much exactly what he is, just not based on religious group. Not really such a bad thing to help people defend themselves.

    Belketre on
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