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Solar Wind reduced by 20%, causes alarming outbreak of astronomy discussion!

MorninglordMorninglord I'm tired of being Batman,so today I'll be Owl.Registered User regular
edited December 2008 in Debate and/or Discourse
I'm drawing no conclusions, I just found this article interesting.

Please read it before replying with any implications, it covers a lot.

http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2008/23sep_solarwind.htm
"The average pressure of the solar wind has dropped more than 20% since the mid-1990s," says Dave McComas of the Southwest Research Institute in San Antonio, Texas. "This is the weakest it's been since we began monitoring solar wind almost 50 years ago."

The changes are apparently due to reductions in temperature and density.
"The solar wind isn't inflating the heliosphere as much as it used to," says McComas. "That means less shielding against cosmic rays."

In addition to weakened solar wind, "Ulysses also finds that the sun's underlying magnetic field has weakened by more than 30% since the mid-1990s," says Posner. "This reduces natural shielding even more."

Unpublished Ulysses cosmic ray data show that, indeed, high energy (GeV) electrons, a minor but telltale component of cosmic rays around Earth, have jumped in number by about 20%.

These extra particles pose no threat to people on Earth's surface. Our thick atmosphere and planetary magnetic field provide additional layers of protection that keep us safe.

But any extra cosmic rays can have consequences. If the trend continues, astronauts on the Moon or en route to Mars would get a higher dose of space radiation. Robotic space probes and satellites in high Earth orbit face an increased risk of instrument malfunctions and reboots due to cosmic ray strikes. Also, there are controversial studies linking cosmic ray fluxes to cloudiness and climate change on Earth. That link may be tested in the years ahead.

This has interesting implications for climate change, but I have no idea how or why I'm not in that field. Still a drop in temperature of that size is pretty big.

The heliosphere being reduced is also interesting.

Whats up big sun.

Now I'm not trying to sound alarmist, I don't feel threatened by this change and I don't see any evidence that anybody else should. I just found it interesting.

This is also a general astronomy thread so feel free to talk about anything related to the solar system and such that this might effect.

I also want to make it clear again, although the article might appear a bit inflammatory that's not how I took this. If you read only the quotes it comes across as just an interesting astronomy event. I really just want to have a nice discussion about space stuff.

(PSN: Morninglord) (Steam: Morninglord) (WiiU: Morninglord22) I like to record and toss up a lot of random gaming videos here.
Morninglord on

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    The Black HunterThe Black Hunter The key is a minimum of compromise, and a simple, unimpeachable reason to existRegistered User regular
    edited December 2008
    So this means the earth could be unavoidably and slowly incinerated at random?

    yaaaay

    The Black Hunter on
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    MorninglordMorninglord I'm tired of being Batman, so today I'll be Owl.Registered User regular
    edited December 2008
    Did you read the article? Where the hell did that come from? The temperature is dropping not rising?

    Please don't inject alarm into this you have no evidence for!

    Morninglord on
    (PSN: Morninglord) (Steam: Morninglord) (WiiU: Morninglord22) I like to record and toss up a lot of random gaming videos here.
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    TaramoorTaramoor Storyteller Registered User regular
    edited December 2008
    That settles it.

    The Sun's going out, and we're all going to die.

    Only the Large Hadron Collider can save us now.

    Taramoor on
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    MorninglordMorninglord I'm tired of being Batman, so today I'll be Owl.Registered User regular
    edited December 2008
    You are just trying to pull my chain now.

    Morninglord on
    (PSN: Morninglord) (Steam: Morninglord) (WiiU: Morninglord22) I like to record and toss up a lot of random gaming videos here.
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    HappylilElfHappylilElf Registered User regular
    edited December 2008
    Where are you getting temperature from? It's saying a 20% drop in solar winds not the sun's temperature which are not the same at all, right?

    HappylilElf on
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    Professor PhobosProfessor Phobos Registered User regular
    edited December 2008
    Where are you getting temperature from? It's saying a 20% drop in solar winds not the sun's temperature which are not the same at all, right?

    Correct. AFAIK, total solar irradiance hasn't changed much in the last 50 years, which is the main solar output that heats the atmosphere.

    Professor Phobos on
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    MorninglordMorninglord I'm tired of being Batman, so today I'll be Owl.Registered User regular
    edited December 2008
    Where are you getting temperature from? It's saying a 20% drop in solar winds not the sun's temperature which are not the same at all, right?

    The article which you read.

    Right?
    Curiously, the speed of the million mph solar wind hasn't decreased much—only 3%. The change in pressure comes mainly from reductions in temperature and density. The solar wind is 13% cooler and 20% less dense.

    "What we're seeing is a long term trend, a steady decrease in pressure that began sometime in the mid-1990s," explains Arik Posner, NASA's Ulysses Program Scientist in Washington DC.

    I'm only talking about the solar winds temperature. Only that, not the suns overall temperature. I'm only saying stuff I found in the article.

    Morninglord on
    (PSN: Morninglord) (Steam: Morninglord) (WiiU: Morninglord22) I like to record and toss up a lot of random gaming videos here.
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    DalbozDalboz Resident Puppy Eater Right behind you...Registered User regular
    edited December 2008
    God did it, and it means Jesus is coming back. Quick, everyone look busy!

    Dalboz on
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    Shifty FisterShifty Fister Registered User regular
    edited December 2008
    sunshine-poster-big.jpg

    ?

    But really, we've been measuring this for 50 years, how much can we really extrapolate from a drop? It may well be a cyclical thing like sunspots.

    Shifty Fister on
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    MorninglordMorninglord I'm tired of being Batman, so today I'll be Owl.Registered User regular
    edited December 2008
    Yeah that's what I thought. I'm not suggesting that it's going anywhere from here. I'm just saying hey it was there, now it's there, with no insinuation as to it's continued trend.

    Morninglord on
    (PSN: Morninglord) (Steam: Morninglord) (WiiU: Morninglord22) I like to record and toss up a lot of random gaming videos here.
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    Shifty FisterShifty Fister Registered User regular
    edited December 2008
    If they figure out the possible cycle time length it'd be interesting to see where the drops/rises coincide with significant natural events in history.

    Shifty Fister on
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    MorninglordMorninglord I'm tired of being Batman, so today I'll be Owl.Registered User regular
    edited December 2008
    Is that theoretically possible? I'd think without some kind of "trace" like paleontologists and geologists use figuring out the cycle time would require potentially centuries of observation. I'm just curious if you know more than I know about whether solar winds leave traces on the celestial bodies in orbit around the sun we could analyze.

    Morninglord on
    (PSN: Morninglord) (Steam: Morninglord) (WiiU: Morninglord22) I like to record and toss up a lot of random gaming videos here.
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    HappylilElfHappylilElf Registered User regular
    edited December 2008
    Where are you getting temperature from? It's saying a 20% drop in solar winds not the sun's temperature which are not the same at all, right?

    The article which you read.

    Right?

    Nope, the article that I skimmed. I've just never heard anyone refer to solar winds as having temperature so I asked.

    HappylilElf on
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    MorninglordMorninglord I'm tired of being Batman, so today I'll be Owl.Registered User regular
    edited December 2008
    Where are you getting temperature from? It's saying a 20% drop in solar winds not the sun's temperature which are not the same at all, right?

    The article which you read.

    Right?

    Nope, the article that I skimmed. I've just never heard anyone refer to solar winds as having temperature so I asked.

    It's cool man I'm just oversensitive that nobody ever reads links. Sorry about being snappish.

    Morninglord on
    (PSN: Morninglord) (Steam: Morninglord) (WiiU: Morninglord22) I like to record and toss up a lot of random gaming videos here.
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    The CatThe Cat Registered User, ClubPA regular
    edited December 2008
    You are just trying to pull my chain now.
    It is pretty fun to watch.

    The Cat on
    tmsig.jpg
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    MorninglordMorninglord I'm tired of being Batman, so today I'll be Owl.Registered User regular
    edited December 2008
    The Cat wrote: »
    You are just trying to pull my chain now.
    It is pretty fun to watch.

    I know I'm hilariously serious about all the wrong things.

    Morninglord on
    (PSN: Morninglord) (Steam: Morninglord) (WiiU: Morninglord22) I like to record and toss up a lot of random gaming videos here.
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    Shifty FisterShifty Fister Registered User regular
    edited December 2008
    Is that theoretically possible? I'd think without some kind of "trace" like paleontologists and geologists use figuring out the cycle time would require potentially centuries of observation. I'm just curious if you know more than I know about whether solar winds leave traces on the celestial bodies in orbit around the sun we could analyze.

    I could definitely see it being possible that variations in solar wind would leave traces in geologic records or fossils etc. I'm sure I remember other sun related changes being recorded in trees, though maybe I'm wrong.

    Shifty Fister on
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    MorninglordMorninglord I'm tired of being Batman, so today I'll be Owl.Registered User regular
    edited December 2008
    Is that theoretically possible? I'd think without some kind of "trace" like paleontologists and geologists use figuring out the cycle time would require potentially centuries of observation. I'm just curious if you know more than I know about whether solar winds leave traces on the celestial bodies in orbit around the sun we could analyze.

    I could definitely see it being possible that variations in solar wind would leave traces in geologic records or fossils etc. I'm sure I remember other sun related changes being recorded in trees, though maybe I'm wrong.

    But wouldn't the magnetosphere diffuse most of it? And the atmosphere?

    Seems like the asteroid belt would be a better bet for that sort of thing. Even the moon is partially protected by the earth isn't it?

    Are there any planets with no magnetosphere and no atmosphere we could send a probe to?

    Morninglord on
    (PSN: Morninglord) (Steam: Morninglord) (WiiU: Morninglord22) I like to record and toss up a lot of random gaming videos here.
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    HappylilElfHappylilElf Registered User regular
    edited December 2008
    Where are you getting temperature from? It's saying a 20% drop in solar winds not the sun's temperature which are not the same at all, right?

    The article which you read.

    Right?

    Nope, the article that I skimmed. I've just never heard anyone refer to solar winds as having temperature so I asked.

    It's cool man I'm just oversensitive that nobody ever reads links. Sorry about being snappish.

    No worries, your* a fellow Chosen on a server that isn't the server I play Order on so all is forgiven.


    *Just for you, Cat ;-)

    HappylilElf on
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    ZekZek Registered User regular
    edited December 2008
    Curiously, the speed of the million mph solar wind hasn't decreased much—only 3%. The change in pressure comes mainly from reductions in temperature and density. The solar wind is 13% cooler and 20% less dense.

    "What we're seeing is a long term trend, a steady decrease in pressure that began sometime in the mid-1990s," explains Arik Posner, NASA's Ulysses Program Scientist in Washington DC.
    Calling something that happened to the sun over the course of 10 years a "long-term trend" seems completely bonkers to me. We only even have 50 years of data. It's probably a natural cycle.

    Zek on
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    MorninglordMorninglord I'm tired of being Batman, so today I'll be Owl.Registered User regular
    edited December 2008
    Zek wrote: »
    Curiously, the speed of the million mph solar wind hasn't decreased much—only 3%. The change in pressure comes mainly from reductions in temperature and density. The solar wind is 13% cooler and 20% less dense.

    "What we're seeing is a long term trend, a steady decrease in pressure that began sometime in the mid-1990s," explains Arik Posner, NASA's Ulysses Program Scientist in Washington DC.
    Calling something that happened to the sun over the course of 10 years a "long-term trend" seems completely bonkers to me. We only even have 50 years of data. It's probably a natural cycle.

    Long term to a human, not a sun. Context!

    Morninglord on
    (PSN: Morninglord) (Steam: Morninglord) (WiiU: Morninglord22) I like to record and toss up a lot of random gaming videos here.
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    CherrnCherrn Registered User regular
    edited December 2008
    So, was this a problem in 1960? If not, I suspect it won't be now.

    Cherrn on
    All creature will die and all the things will be broken. That's the law of samurai.
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    MorninglordMorninglord I'm tired of being Batman, so today I'll be Owl.Registered User regular
    edited December 2008
    It's not a problem, I just like space stuff a lot and find it interesting. Shift Fister is what I was hoping for with this thread.

    I was hoping I could avoid "is this a problem" based thinking but I see I'll just have to ride it out.

    Morninglord on
    (PSN: Morninglord) (Steam: Morninglord) (WiiU: Morninglord22) I like to record and toss up a lot of random gaming videos here.
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    CherrnCherrn Registered User regular
    edited December 2008
    Well, the article you quoted in the OP makes it sound like a problem. I also don't want to foster any alarmist nonsense, but that's what it kind of leans towards, regardless if that's what you wanted. I too would like a more general astronomy thread.

    Cherrn on
    All creature will die and all the things will be broken. That's the law of samurai.
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    MorninglordMorninglord I'm tired of being Batman, so today I'll be Owl.Registered User regular
    edited December 2008
    I don't really know any I was hoping someone in the know could give us an interesting lecture.

    You are all free to talk about other astronomy topics you think are relevant. I love space.

    edit: Done. I like my new title.

    Morninglord on
    (PSN: Morninglord) (Steam: Morninglord) (WiiU: Morninglord22) I like to record and toss up a lot of random gaming videos here.
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    WMain00WMain00 Registered User regular
    edited December 2008
    Place you bets it all dead stops at 2012! END OF THE WORLD! THE MAYANS WERE RIGHT! FLEE! FLEE!!!

    WMain00 on
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    romanqwertyromanqwerty Registered User regular
    edited December 2008
    Isn't solar sails a huge research topic atm?

    What does this mean for them?

    romanqwerty on
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    MorninglordMorninglord I'm tired of being Batman, so today I'll be Owl.Registered User regular
    edited December 2008
    Yeah I was thinking that too roman. But the speed doesn't seem to have dropped much? I don't know how much the pressure loss would affect the energy transfer to a sail.

    Morninglord on
    (PSN: Morninglord) (Steam: Morninglord) (WiiU: Morninglord22) I like to record and toss up a lot of random gaming videos here.
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    JacobkoshJacobkosh Gamble a stamp. I can show you how to be a real man!Moderator mod
    edited December 2008
    Are there any planets with no magnetosphere and no atmosphere we could send a probe to?

    I think the only bodies that would be that dead (aside from Earth's moon) would be the gas giant moons, and they're too far away from the Sun and also are being constantly bombarded by radiation and so forth from their parents. Mars might be the best bet, with its thin atmosphere and almost zero magnetic field.

    Jacobkosh on
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    MorninglordMorninglord I'm tired of being Batman, so today I'll be Owl.Registered User regular
    edited December 2008
    I guess mercury would just have too much to be useful.

    Venus has that thick atmosphere.

    So the asteroid belt is probably still the best bet.

    Morninglord on
    (PSN: Morninglord) (Steam: Morninglord) (WiiU: Morninglord22) I like to record and toss up a lot of random gaming videos here.
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    ElJeffeElJeffe Moderator, ClubPA mod
    edited December 2008
    I blame global warming.

    ElJeffe on
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