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Gingrich Threatens To Go Perot
Gosling
Looking Up Soccer In Mongolia Right Now, ProbablyWatertown, WIRegistered User regular
Looking Up Soccer In Mongolia Right Now, ProbablyWatertown, WIRegistered User regular
I have maintained that there are two ways a third party could reasonably become a serious contender in American politics. First is the grassroots method- build up credibility by winning downballot races, then prove your legitimacy by snagging Congressional seats.
Newt Gingrich is threatening to display the other method.
This spawns a six-part question.
1) What are the chances of him going through with it?
2) What portion of the party goes with him?
3) What's the impact on 2012- well, we know it would result in Obama winning, but what's the exact magnitude?
4) How much of the Democratic agenda goes through unmolested due to the two sides spending too much time fighting each other and not enough tag-teaming the Dems?
5) How long would it take for either side to become a threat to the Dems?
6) Who ultimately shoves the other into the dustbin of history?
So far, I think it's bluster, but we'll see if the talk gets more serious. If it does, I think Obama sweeps all but Idaho, Utah, Wyoming and Oklahoma; everything else would go his way due to Republican ballot-splitting.
However, the Democratic agenda goes through easily due to downballot infighting allowing a slew of Dems to sail through to Congress. Three parties, three general election candidates. Maybe a few Blue Dogs hop on board, but not enough to change the outcome.
Newt Gingrich is threatening to display the other method.
Politico wrote:Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich is warning fellow Republicans that conservatives may leave the GOP for a third party in 2012.
“If the Republicans can’t break out of being the right wing party of big government, then I think you would see a third party movement in 2012,†Gingrich said Wednesday during a speech at the College of the Ozarks in Missouri, the local television station KY3 reported.
Gingrich thrashed Republicans for allowing increased spending during the Bush administration and for not doing enough to block President Barack Obama’s early initiatives.
“Remember, everything Obama's doing, Bush started last year,†Gingrich said. “If you're going to talk about big spending, the mistakes of the Bush administration last year are fully as bad as the mistakes of Obama's first two, three months.â€
The former speaker also attacked the Democratic president on the economic stimulus package and for what he called his “grotesque arrogance†to oust Rick Wagoner as the head of General Motors.
“During the period I was speaker, the U.S. government – for four years – total growth was 2 percent a year. Under Bush, it was 6.1 percent. ... This year, I think it will be 36 percent in one year,†Gingrich said. “It is just literally irrational.â€
This spawns a six-part question.
1) What are the chances of him going through with it?
2) What portion of the party goes with him?
3) What's the impact on 2012- well, we know it would result in Obama winning, but what's the exact magnitude?
4) How much of the Democratic agenda goes through unmolested due to the two sides spending too much time fighting each other and not enough tag-teaming the Dems?
5) How long would it take for either side to become a threat to the Dems?
6) Who ultimately shoves the other into the dustbin of history?
So far, I think it's bluster, but we'll see if the talk gets more serious. If it does, I think Obama sweeps all but Idaho, Utah, Wyoming and Oklahoma; everything else would go his way due to Republican ballot-splitting.
However, the Democratic agenda goes through easily due to downballot infighting allowing a slew of Dems to sail through to Congress. Three parties, three general election candidates. Maybe a few Blue Dogs hop on board, but not enough to change the outcome.
I have a new soccer blog The Minnow Tank. Reading it psychically kicks Sepp Blatter in the bean bag.
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He doesn't have a political position, I thought newt was mostly a consultant/think tank type of guy these days. And the main body of the GOP seems to be eschewing even conservative thinking in favor of being purely reactionary. I could see it happening.
A lot of the long term questions really depend on if someone can steer the remains of the Republican party into anything. Given the way Freepers handle everything, I just can't seem them uniting against the Dems.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Chilean_Earthquake
Given that it seems to be impossible for conservatives to campaign without being tarred with the Republican brush this seems like a logical step.
Hell, I don't think Ross Perot could have bankrolled himself through the ultramarathon that was the 2008 election cycle.
I'd peg this as a stunt to position himself as the "Maverick" candidate going into the GOP primaries before I'd take it seriously as a declaration of intent. It's going to be a crowded platform full of no-names and has-beens for the first couple of debates, he probably wants to make sure he comes off as a legitimate candidate after his long hiatus.
They tried to bury us. They didn't know that we were seeds. 2018 Midterms. Get your shit together.
Then I won't have to laugh (as much) every time somebody on here posts about a permanent Dem majority.
I think people would just be like "Not this shit again..."
"I'm not like those Republicans with loser stink on them. I'm an outsider with true conservative chops and I'm all about getting it back to our fiscal roots. Vote for me if you like tax cuts, babies and awesome."
Even the Republican base is having some doubts about the image their projecting, so positioning yourself as someone who agrees but isn't a caricature of modern Republicanism could be a good idea.
They tried to bury us. They didn't know that we were seeds. 2018 Midterms. Get your shit together.
edit: or for it's grassroots activism.
that's why we call it the struggle, you're supposed to sweat
They tried to bury us. They didn't know that we were seeds. 2018 Midterms. Get your shit together.
He may get further down the road with a 3rd party than he would as a Republican but he would still get torn apart by both sides. The only difference is that it would be immediately before an election instead of immediately before a primary.
Two words: Bull Moose.
I was just thinking that it's been 6 months and I'm still utterly fucking sick of the word "Maverick".
Hey if he promises to shrink the deficit and government and sound fiscal policy I might even vote for the man, assuming it goes that far. I just wish I could get a combo of that with liberal social policies, something I don't think Newtie would be good for. Gingrich/Paul 2012? I'd vote for that.
Of course we wouldn't win since the public likes their handouts.
10...
9...
They tried to bury us. They didn't know that we were seeds. 2018 Midterms. Get your shit together.
They're also the wing that's less likely to back an idealogue for idiotic reasons when they're better off backing a candidate that actually has a chance of winning.
Well if he does do it it will go down precisely like it did in 1912, with the Republican vote split and the Democrats winning handily.
Yeah. Handouts. They're good shit.
Backing a third party run by Newt wouldn't be any more of a money sink than Palin or Jindal.
They tried to bury us. They didn't know that we were seeds. 2018 Midterms. Get your shit together.
I've found the distaste I had for McCain has subsided somewhat, but my loathing of Sarah Palin has only increased. I wonder why that is.
They tried to bury us. They didn't know that we were seeds. 2018 Midterms. Get your shit together.
Because McCain shut the hell up and went back to doing his job, and doing it well. Sarah Palin went off the reservation.
"Washington outsider."
Except that his excuse for not running in 2008 was that he wanted to continue to run his 529 organization, and legally couldn't as a presidential candidate. I could never decide whether that was a pathetic excuse for something else or just him being a chickenshit.
Of course, the funny thing is that he has zero policy differences with W. or the GOP mainstream. So what is he running against? Himself?
And let me say, that I hope he's serious because I have always wanted to see the anti-Newt attack ad of a woman being served papers in a hospital bed. "Family values" my ass.
Given the current line up, and given Newt's role in the 94 elections, which one looks more like a potential long term winner? There is no leadership in the Republican party. Steele has been running around making an ass of himself. The other candidates for RNC head aren't any better. If Newt comes out and says "Hey, I'm starting a new party, and I'm going to fill it with moderate conservatives." he'll get people to join.
I think the theory here is that people are proposing Newt will run. And I think it's much more likely he'll take the Rove position. Can you imagine how much better the conservatives would do in the polls if they could get a moderate like Colin Powell to run for President?
Unfortunately Colin Powell has sworn off politics. Promised his wife he'd never do it, and the only other hope internal to the party in Congress is the red-headed stepchild and thus will gain no traction.
Now the reliable GOP base is mostly composed of the "Murca" crowd and not much else; they've driven everybody else off. And those people don't like moderates, because they've been told repeatedly that moderates are wishy-washy pussies. They might pick up some independents but I think it would hurt them with their core voters, honestly.
They tried to bury us. They didn't know that we were seeds. 2018 Midterms. Get your shit together.
The Republicans can keep their neo-cons. We don't want them here. BTW, what the heck is a MURCA? I googled it and came up with nothing...
A-murica
Murica
Murca
They tried to bury us. They didn't know that we were seeds. 2018 Midterms. Get your shit together.
The GOP has never been small government
it's a myth
Although the GOP is, admittedly, a lot better about turning their base out than the Dems are.