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Iranian Resistance: Caged Lions, Heroes of our Time
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Iran's speaker calls for massive turnout in presidential election
TEHRAN, June 3 (Xinhua) -- Iran's Majlis (Parliament) Speaker Ali Larijani urged on Wednesday for a massive turnout in the country's upcoming presidential election which will be a sign of might, the semi-official Fars news agency reported.
"A massive public participation would increase Iran's might in the eyes of other world countries," Larijani was quoted as saying.
"All the countries have an eye on Iran's election and (people's)presence at the ballot boxes will slash the material and nonmaterial costs of the Islamic Republic in the future," Larijanisaid in Iran's central province of Qom.
On Tuesday, Chairman of Iran's Expediency Council Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani also called for massive turnout in the presidential election.
"The enemy is concerned about massive turnout of the people in election," Rafsanjani said.
Regardless of which political camp to achieve victory, the Iranian high ranking officials have always reiterated their encouraging rhetoric for the maximum participation of people in the country's diverse elections.
The 10th presidential election of Iran is slated for June 12. Two reformist candidates -- former Prime Minister Mir-Hossein Mousavi and former Parliament Speaker Mehdi Karroubi, and two conservatives -- incumbent President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and former Revolutionary Guards chief Mohsen Rezaei, will compete for the new presidency.
Something is Happening in Iran
Andrew Sullivan wrote:
I don't know whether you have been reading the various press accounts of the election campaign in Iran. I know that the candidates' list is fixed, but I can also see democratic spirit when it is bang in front of me. There appears to be a genuine fight for votes; and the images from the Mousavi rallies look more like Obama rallies than assemblies in a totalitarian state. Notice how young these people look, and how unafraid.
Does anyone doubt that if this kid of peaceful campaigning were happening in Iraq, it would be regarded as a sign of a nascent democracy? And, for what it's worth, Ahmadinejad increasingly looks desperate - the bribing of Red Iran doesn't seem as powerful right now as the rallying of Blue Iran. Check out the photos of a May Mousavi rally headlined by Khatami on this Iranian photo-blog, TehranLive.org. The blogger's description of the event:
"As a symbolic gesture, the Saturday’s pro-Mousavi rally was held on the anniversary of Khatami’s first election victory in 1997 on May 23 — the day dubbed as the day of reform movement in the Islamic republic. Iran’s former reformist president Mohammad Khatami on Saturday openly threw his weight behind ex-premier Mir Hossein Mousavi, who is contesting the June 12 presidential election. Speaking to thousands of young supporters at a rally in Tehran’s indoor Azadi (Freedom) sports stadium, Khatami said: 'Stand up and do not miss this rare opportunity.'"
Now check out this video of a public clash between Ahmadinejad and Mousavi supporters in the streets of Tehran. It's vivid, electrifying stuff - not a sign of a brutal totalitarian regime. I know we have to be cautious and I know who holds the military power. But we should not be blind to change when it emerges. Ahmadinejad has discredited himself in the eyes of many Iranians. They are looking for change they can believe in. This is the target audience for Obama this Thursday. He needs to reach out to the democratic forces in that country and remind them that America is their ally.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R8dAEnXJGwg&feature=player_embedded
Economy Ahmadinejad's big election test
TEHRAN, June 2 (Reuters) - In a way, Iranian restaurateur Mohsen Misaqi notes, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has fulfilled the promise to put oil wealth on the table of every family that swept him to power four years ago.
"There is more money," said the middle-aged businessman in downtown Tehran. "But with much less buying power. One cannot but feel economic hardship as a result of higher prices for almost everything."
A slump in the West checked oil's surge last year, but rising consumer prices -- as well as a lack of jobs -- are still the loudest complaint in Tehran as the Islamic Republic heads to a presidential election where Ahmadinejad faces a challenge from reformers. People like housewife Behjat Soltani agree the economy is Ahmadinejad's weakest point in the run-up to the June 12 poll:
"Our family's economic situation has deteriorated considerably compared with four years ago," said the 41-year-old, wearing a black headscarf as she bought food and other groceries in a small Tehran store.
But if such bread-and-butter issues work against the incumbent among some in the capital, Ahmadinejad may be stronger electorally in the countryside. The rural poor helped vote him in last time, have benefited from his largesse and like his down-to-earth image.
"He still has an enduring popularity, although probably not as high as a few years back, among the urban and rural masses," said Karabekir Akkoyunlu of risk consultancy AKE Ltd in London.
When the state coffers were swelled by an unprecedented inflow of petrodollars, Ahmadinejad's government went on a spending spree after his surprise 2005 election victory, lavishing credit and cash during frequent provincial trips to help the needy.
During a typical visit to the northwestern province of Qazvin in May, his government announced 160 local development initiatives from roads and water supply to sports facilities.
The politicians seeking to deny him a second term accuse him of "charity" economics and of trying to lure voters with handouts, such as much-publicised distribution of "surplus production" potatoes in different locations earlier this year.
Former Prime Minister Mirhossein Mousavi, seen as Ahmadinejad's main moderate challenger, says this offends people's dignity without addressing the root causes of poverty.
"STILL GROWING"
Among voters in the capital, home to more than 15 percent of Iran's rapidly urbanising population of more than 70 million, economic frustrations tend to overshadow Iran's nuclear dispute with the West, even though the conservative president's rivals say his defiance hurts the economy by isolating the country.
Inflation may have come down from last year's 30 percent peak, reaching an annual 18 percent in March, but many Iranians say they still struggle to afford food and other basic items.
Government critics also argue that free-spending policies while oil prices were soaring left the world's fifth-largest crude exporter vulnerable to the tumble that started in 2008.
Despite a sharp recovery this year, crude remains below $75 a barrel, the level at which the International Monetary Fund last year said Iran would show current account deficits.
Ahmadinejad, who vowed during the 2005 campaign to share out Iran's oil riches more fairly, blames double-digit inflation on global food and energy prices which peaked last year, and has replaced a central banker who tried to rein in monetary policy.
He says the oil-dependent economy, with a Gross Domestic Product of around $360-370 billion according to IMF projections last year, is still showing annual growth of 5-6 percent and doing much better than those of Iran's Western foes.
"There is negative growth everywhere you look ... but in Iran the growth rate is positive," he said in May. Last year, he said Iran could manage for three years on its foreign exchange reserves even if the oil price "reaches zero."
A Western diplomat said the global economic downturn may have come later to Iran, but it faces growing problems as a result of an oil price fall of nearly 60 percent over the last year, which is hitting manufacturing and construction.
"It is tough out there ... if they manage to grow it will be pretty good going," the Tehran-based diplomat said on condition of anonymity as he was not authorised to speak to the media.
"NO MORE ENEMIES"
While many wage-earners have been squeezed by inflation, which stood at around 11 percent when Ahmadinejad took office, loose fiscal policies have also created winners.
Ahmadinejad's vows to help those in need, including pensioners, still draw support as does his refusal to bow to Western pressure in the row over Tehran's nuclear programme.
Retired government employee Esmaeel Malekpour has seen his pension more than double under Ahmadinejad and no longer needs to drive a taxi, using his own car, to make ends meet.
"This government did not just talk about helping us but did something for us through concrete measures," said the grey-haired 74-year-old. He did not vote for Ahmadinejad in 2005 but said he will now.
Mousavi favoured a strong government role when he steered Iran's economy through the 1980-88 war with Iraq, but now advocates liberalisation of the state-dominated system. He says he would focus on creating jobs if elected president.
Official unemployment stands at more than 10 percent, but an Iranian development economist said this figure did not include many people who had some work but wanted more, including some students and housewives.
About 800,000 people enter the labour market each year, competing for only half that number of new jobs, he said.
"Mousavi's supporters argue that his track record of successfully managing the war economy proves he could do a much better job on economic issues than Ahmadinejad," wrote political science professor Mehrzad Boroujerdi in Foreign Policy magazine.
Mousavi has yet to unveil detailed economic remedies. Any president would find it hard to curb spending or sell state firms with likely job losses.
Risk consultant Akkoyunlu said the fall in oil revenue -- 85 percent of government income -- was "swiftly emptying the state's coffers". Industrial investment and foreign reserves were also shrinking.
Iran's refusal to halt nuclear work has drawn U.N. and U.S. sanctions: "In this environment, Tehran is increasingly feeling the brunt of tightening economic sanctions, which is limiting growth and access to international loan markets," he said.
Cliff Kupchan of Eurasia risk consultancy agreed Iran faced significant economic problems but added years of growth gave it large reserves that could serve as "some political cushion".
The government says Iran can defy even harsher steps, given foreign assets that rose 20 percent year-on-year to $85 billion in January, according to central bank data cited by local media.
But oil officials acknowledge Iran needs more foreign capital to meet its annual investment needs of up to $30 billion in energy. Oil firms such as Royal Dutch Shell ( RDSA - news - people ) and Total have either delayed or scrapped large projects in Iran.
Mousavi and Mehdi Karoubi, another reformist presidential hopeful, advocate better ties with the West.
Misaqi, the Tehran restaurant owner, agrees.
"We cannot afford to make any more enemies in our relations with the outside world through our harsh comments," he said.
Iranian Candidate Taps Student Woes
TABRIZ, Iran — Rassool Zarehee, 22, shouted at the top of his lungs as he and several other students raced around a basketball court at the University of Tabriz recently, encouraging more than 2,000 students to chant with them. “Yasharsoon Moussavi!†he screamed in the local Turkish Azeri dialect. “Long Live Moussavi!â€
Mr. Zarehee is a staunch supporter of Mir Hussein Moussavi, a moderate politician who is the strongest challenger to Iran’s president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, in the June 12 election.
Mr. Zarehee’s enthusiasm for his candidate is so strong that he waited several hours behind closed gates with other students before the angry crowd finally pushed its way inside.
Wearing a green headband, a green cloak and green ribbons on his wrists — the trademark color for Mr. Moussavi’s supporters — Mr. Zarehee warmed up the crowd before Mr. Moussavi spoke. He remained on the court for more than two hours, along with some 400 other students, chanting and singing in support of Mr. Moussavi.
“This is all my hope, and I will do my share so that he gets elected,†he said after the event. “We have been like prisoners at university for the past four years.â€
Mr. Moussavi, a former prime minister, was born in Khameneh, a small town near this northwestern city in East Azerbaijan Province. He was speaking here on Tuesday as part of a two-day tour to win the votes of Turkish speakers, nearly one-third of Iran’s eligible voters.
In his speech, Mr. Moussavi denounced the pressure put on student activists through expulsions and jail terms during Mr. Ahmadinejad’s term and called the president’s policies “old and backward.â€
He said the major goal of the 1979 revolution was freedom.
“We wanted to become free and be progressive in the world, not faced with backward ideas and notions today,†he said.
The rally was an unusual event in this northwestern city, where political and social restrictions are enforced more fiercely than in the capital, Tehran.
Young men and women sang together, and even moved their bodies rhythmically to the music. The young men rushed from their side of the segregated auditorium to the women’s side, to take cellphone pictures of girls dancing. The women had green headbands or ribbons in their hair, and had pushed back the black hoods they are required to wear as far back as they could go.
Many in the audience said they were frustrated by four years of economic mismanagement and social and political suppression under Mr. Ahmadinejad. They said they hoped that Mr. Moussavi would reverse those policies.
Nassim, 19, a radiology student, who withheld her family name for fear of retribution, said she had to resign as a member of her university’s Islamic Association, the only pro-reform political association for student activists, because of pressure from university hard-liners.
“I could not even do social or cultural work,†she said. “They accused us of doing political work no matter what we did.â€
She said that the president had “a different interpretation of justice and freedom.â€
Mr. Zarehee, a computer science student at Payam-e-Noor, another university in Tabriz, said that at his school hard-line guards monitored the campus to ensure that people did not wear un-Islamic clothes, a reference to what could be deemed fashionable or Western.
“Boys and girls are not allowed to speak,†he said. “They have even installed cameras in the classrooms to make sure they watch us all the time. Instead of investing the money into facilities for students, like a restaurant, which we do not have, they use the money against us.â€
He said that he had worked at a small casting factory to pay for his university fees but that he was laid off recently because the factory had not received any orders in months — a result of the faltering economy.
Not all students at the rally were supporters of Mr. Moussavi.
Some were separatists with banners that said “federalism,†a reference to Turkish Azeri separatist sentiment, or opponents of Mr. Moussavi who held banners that accused him of being involved in the execution of thousands of prisoners in 1988 when he was prime minister.
At one point they turned their backs to Mr. Moussavi as a sign of protest.
Another student, Mohammad, 23, a mechanical engineering major, said he had just come to the rally to have a good time. He said he would vote, but only to get his birth certificate stamped.
“I need the stamp in case I need to get a government job later,†he said. “But I do not believe in any of the candidates. I believe in a secular democracy.â€
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Just a pet peeve :P (The same goes for Iraq, which should be roughly "e-rock", never ever "I rack".)
feeling hopeful for this country, for once
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From what I read yesterday: the moderate in this case is for re-approaching the US if Obama's actions meet his words, is not a Holocaust denier and will in fact admit it was a pretty awful thing, wants government transparency, especially re: budgetary issues, and wants to end/curtail the "Moral Police."
That sounds pretty good, but even if elected Iran is still a almost a theocracy isn't it? The supreme leader and his council of guardians can veto anything the government (or president) tries that isn't in line with islamic religious law (sharia)...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran#Government_and_politics
Right, the extent of the President's real power is murky at best and at worst he's a clever figurehead for the Ayatollah.
So how hardliner is the current Supreme Leader? I mean, is he open to some sort of negotations, or is it all just DEATH TO ISRAEL stuff? Obviously he's conservative, but how conservative? They never tell a lot about him in news, it's all about Ahmadinejad.
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Still, if the religious elements become seen as interfering with the will of the people and their elected leader, they could end up with their power being weakened in the long run. Hopefully, the more connected the Iranian people are to the election of a leader, the more connected they'll be to the ideas of democracy as a whole.
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Seriously, I'm not familiar with the current state of political affairs in Iran
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You will hardly ever hear an Iranian speak of the Ayatollah, unless it is in words of praise, just like serious Catholics will not easily speak negatively of the pope in public. Iran is not a liberal democracy like America or Western Europe, but that does not mean it is not a democracy. It is simply a different kind of democracy and less open to popular vote than America's.
These elections are incredibly important to foreign policy: depending on who wins we will either see a more open and honest Iran or more of Ahmadinejhad's antics. For the Iranian people I hope a moderate candidate wins, because these trade blocks we have in place hurt, a lot. it would also be swell to be able to have normal diplomatic ties with Iran again, instead of constant threats.
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I'm mostly basing this on various articles i read in in news papers and the book The Ayatollah Begs to Differ written by Hooman Majd. He describes very clearly the peculiar political and cultural situation in Iran, the huge role religion plays in many people's life and it gives some explanations for the weird things Ahmadinejhad has said over the past years. It's a great read, at any rate.
...I also read Farah Dibah's autobiography, but as nicely written as that was she isn't being honest at all about her late husband's regime.
Doesn't the popular vote mean jack shit in American elections though? You guys are still dealing with that electoral college bullshit (which I know many of you are fed up with).
In Iran, they use runoff popular vote. After the first round of voting, they take the top few candidates, and the country votes again. This is actually more democratic than the American system when done properly, since it allows people to vote for any party of their choosing without reservation or fear of 'throwing their vote away', while ultimately being able to also select between whoever the top two candidates end up being. A majority is still needed, so there's none of that "I don't want 30% choosing the president" stuff.
Now, how open ballot access in Iran is something I'm not entirely sure of, and some say it's not nearly as open as it should be, but that's also kind of true in America.
In Iran the Ayatollah gets to decide and he has some strict religious/nationalist rules going on, if you're a woman, a Kurd or not a Sji'it you should look for a different career. Popular vote only comes into play after the Ayatollah made sure the wrong guy doesn't become popular.
Iran is the most democratic state in the middle east behind Israel actually. One of the reasons I am very glad that McCain didn't win the election here, because I can totally see him saying something along the lines of the 'Axis of Evil' comment Bush made that contributed to Ahmadinejhad getting elected in the first place. The big facepalmy bit of this is that Iran is one of the countries in the middle east we most likely could get along well with.
As for the Ayatollah, the perception is that he is a hardline Koran Thumpers, but I suspect that in truth he is more pragmatic than the general impression of him is. Iran is a country of very young people, a huge percentage of the population is under 30, and like all young people they want Sex, Drugs and Rock and Roll. They are also, like most young people, more liberal than their elders. The big thing, however, is that a LOT of them are unemployed, and lots of unemployed young people are a good recipe for trouble if you torque them off too much, which means the Ayatollah walks something of a thin line in that respect. So he can't pull too many hijinks and must respect the will of the masses to an extent, cause he knows it ain't like the Revolution can't happen again.
EDIT: Ah, runoffs. That solves that. Question withdrawn.
It would be great for the Iranian pepole for Mousavi to get in. Great for the rest of the world too in all likelihood, but for the Iranian people first and foremost. Iran is really itching to reform and liberalize itself; its young people are simply not into these strict religious rules. They're going to have a cultural revolution 1960s style unless there is a major crack down. Mousavi can keep things moving in a good direction.
Hard to say who will get in. Mousavi is pretty unknown among Iranian youth because he hasn't been involved in politics in a long while. But backing from Khatami (former President, a reformer) is a big deal, and thats where he'll be getting most of his votes from. With Iran having something like 60% of its population being under the age of 30, the youth vote is hugely important. Ahmadenijad has more backing from the rural poor and the urban powerful, classic conservative really. His mishandling of the economy is by far his weakest point.
I've seen polls showing Mousavi is in the lead, but polling isn't reliable in Iran. Most polls are not done very scientifically, and most don't publish their methodology. Take it with a very large grain of salt, and don't expect it to match the final result of the elections. If Ahmadenijad gets back in everyone will be saying the elections were rigged, which is a possibility. Ahmadenijad is backed the the Revolutionary Guards; theoretically and armed force under the control of the Supreme Leader and separate from the rest of the armed forces. In practice it is a hugely powerful organization in its own right; many of its ex members are in high places in the Iranian government, and it has vast economic power as well. It uses this power to get the people it wants into power, so we'll see how that plays out.
Interesting stuff, I can't wait.
Death to the Potato!
Funny thing, by the way, the Iranian government tries to make it appear as if the country is in a never ending state of revolution. They are very well aware that the moment they claim to have nothing to fight against that support will be a lot harder to find. It's so much easier to say that there is a war on terror and you need to support the president...
Thankfully you yanks picked the non-war-loving-gun-tooting madman candidate this election.
Well in the US, technically you can enter the political arena regardless of who you are, but the system itself imposes some pretty crazy limitations. If a few powerful people in the media don't like what you're saying, you're fucked. If you want to run as anything other than a Democrat or Republican, regardless of how many supporters you have, you're fucked because you won't be able to get on some of the ballots, or in the debates.
Anyway, I'll get back on topic. I'm really hoping the results of this election knock some sense into some people in the west. Iran could be a great ally if some backwards morons in the States would smarten the fuck up.
Not sure where you're getting this.
To keep with this: virtually everywhere in the third world, candidate selection involves large sums of money and under-the-table agreements. If anything, candidate selection in this manner at least ensures that relevant minority groups get a candidate, providing an opportunity for these groups to air their resentments. Better aired resentment than underground resistance, at least from the govt's perspective.
This is classic authoritarianism - avoidance of an open dictatorship, in particular. De facto power is always more important than formal power; the Queen of England exercises enormous formal power but is expected never to actually use it. The theocrats in Iran occupy some point between total control and nil; being formally able to select candidates means they can convert perhaps 40% support to a mandate, but 30% or 20% and a failure to let the opposition run will simply bring people to the streets.
Candidates are approved by a council of clerics, no approval no running. So each person running right now isn't going to be the lets pull out the bikini's and hot dogs candidate. But if the reform guy wins it will be the beginning of an internal change in Iran which probably will move it closer to the West. Hopefully we don't have any idiots go spot their mouths to keep Ahmadenijad in. But I am interested in the results of the election.
Also if anyone wants to watch a recent report on Iran, Dateline(I know ick but still) has a rather decent one up on their website. It covers a few different aspects of modern Iran. In general a really decent report and will give you at least a taste of what Iran is like at the moment.
If you want really excellent coverage of the election, watch Al-Jazeera English online. They're my primary source for Middle East news and they do a very good job.
edit: hm I just realised that this doesn't really sit well with the trend in Western nations towards decreasing religious influence over time. Wonder why? Time to do some reading, I guess...
At least in Turkey's case, the secular parties tend to be authoritarian militarists who ban head scarves from public universities, denying religious women an education. It's probably because a lot of those countries were at the very least points of interest for the USSR.
Anyway, how long until somebody accuses Mousavi of being a secret Muslim and makes an ad of him windsurfing?
I thought that Turkey, in particular, was firmly secular, time to do some reading myself.
Good article on the subject.
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Technically yeah, but it wasn't so long ago that the Turkish military was getting a bit twitchy over the possible growing influence in the government of a Islamic party. Its sort of a touchy situation with the religiousness of the citizenry clashing with the somewhat less than permissive secular government institution.
For those who are unaware, the Turkish Military has the constitutional duty of keeping the government strictly secular, which causes issues when people want to elect members of parties with the express intent to get a bit more religion in there.