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Tunisia, riots and fleeing Presidents

KalkinoKalkino Buttons Londres Registered User regular
edited January 2011 in Debate and/or Discourse
Comrades, the Dictator has fled and freedom reigns across the land of Tunisia!

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Well, almost. President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali has fled and maybe en route to Paris, or another as yet uncertain destination. The Prime Minister, who appears to have been in office since the late 1990s has taken over, in some sort of internal coup. This seems to be how it is done in Tunisia, as the fleeing President apparently took over in a similar manner back in 1987.
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Events seem to have moved rather quickly in the last 48 hours, as street protests have mounted, the police riot control forces in action and a lot of behind the scenes movement amongst the governmental elites and foreign supporters seems to have taken place. The President tried to offer promises of fresh elections in 6 months, in which he would not stand as well as dismissing his government but the people seem to have long since lost faith in him and were disgusted by his family’s excesses (which were mentioned in the Wikileaks cables). Equally important, the governing elites seem to have lost confidence.

This does not seem to be an Orange Revolution so far, more that a member of the government has arranged a new regime to replace the old one, which he was a member of. It is unknown whether or not this new regime is going to be able to hold. This leaves a lot of uncertainty a to the long term future of the country and of course people are looking to past precedent, namely Iran. So will this be Iran Mk II and we get some sort of Islamist state? Or is this the first of the Arab/North African Velvet/Orange Revolutions?

Where and what is Tunisia?

lpp_noaf-naho_tunesien_grafik_en.jpg

The CIA Factbook is informative


Population: 10,589,025
Religion: 99% Muslim
Economy: GDP per capita - about $9,500
Languages: Arabic, French
Former Colonial Power: France

Rivalry between French and Italian interests in Tunisia culminated in a French invasion in 1881 and the creation of a protectorate. Agitation for independence in the decades following World War I was finally successful in getting the French to recognize Tunisia as an independent state in 1956. The country's first president, Habib BOURGUIBA, established a strict one-party state. He dominated the country for 31 years, repressing Islamic fundamentalism and establishing rights for women unmatched by any other Arab nation. In November 1987, BOURGUIBA was removed from office and replaced by Zine el Abidine BEN ALI in a bloodless coup. BEN ALI is currently serving his fifth consecutive five-year term as president. Tunisia has long taken a moderate, non-aligned stance in its foreign relations. Domestically, it has sought to defuse rising pressure for a more open political society.

Freedom for the Northern Isles!
Kalkino on
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Posts

  • programjunkieprogramjunkie Registered User regular
    edited January 2011
    All the Al Jazeera Arabic coverage seems to suggest the rioting is primarily economic / political, and not resulting directly from religious tensions.

    Of course, Islamic extremists are a contagious cancer on the entire region, so it's entirely possible they will see this as a chance to murder innocent people and attempt to steal power so as to choke yet another country with their insane fanaticism.

    programjunkie on
    Wicked Demiurge in most games. Solacus is my main in GW2.
  • adytumadytum Registered User regular
    edited January 2011
    On this note, apparently the government of Lebanon collapsed this week as well.

    adytum on
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  • KalkinoKalkino Buttons Londres Registered User regular
    edited January 2011
    That was more of a coalition collapse though, right?[PHP][/PHP]

    Kalkino on
    Freedom for the Northern Isles!
  • [Tycho?][Tycho?] Registered User regular
    edited January 2011
    Kalkino wrote: »
    That was more of a coalition collapse though, right?[PHP][/PHP]

    Yes, and one not too likely to lead to violence, at least for now. Things will operate by their standard government rules and they'll figure something out come monday as they try to build a new government.

    As for Tunisia, I don't really know. I try to follow the goings-on in much of the arab/muslim world but I'll admit I know next to nothing about Tunisia. I really doubt we'll be comparing this to the Iranian revolution though. That was completely unprecedented and also totally shifted the balance of power in the entire region. I don't think the urban population of Tunis is rioting on religious grounds, I had thought these started due to rising food costs. If its anything like its neighbour Algeria then a military backed government will swiftly assume power. Western nations, particularly France and the US will do anything to quash any sort of Islamic uprising if one does show up.

    [Tycho?] on
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  • HakkekageHakkekage Space Whore Academy summa cum laudeRegistered User regular
    edited January 2011
    Apparently he fled to Malta.

    And yeah I've been reading that the reasoning was overwhelmingly economic/political (corruption) rather than religious. What I find most interesting, and what others have been blogging, is the effect it could have on other Arab states. The Iranian election revolution was sort of a dampener...this was a successful ousting of an entrenched authoritarian (although how it goes from here no one really knows...), without seeming US interest.

    Hakkekage on
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  • HozHoz Cool Cat Registered User regular
    edited January 2011
    Iran isn't an Arab state but I suspect you know that and you're just being lazy in your phrasing. And the US has an interest in every single muslim majority country there is, it's just the simple truth.

    And if this revolution bears fruit and Tunisia becomes a democracy, it would be unprecedented for the Arab world. But then, this situation so far has been unprecedented for the Arab world.

    Hoz on
  • HakkekageHakkekage Space Whore Academy summa cum laudeRegistered User regular
    edited January 2011
    Hoz wrote: »
    Iran isn't an Arab state but I suspect you know that and you're just being lazy in your phrasing. And the US has an interest in every single muslim majority country there is, it's just the simple truth.

    And if this revolution bears fruit and Tunisia becomes a democracy, it would be unprecedented for the Arab world. But then, this situation so far has been unprecedented for the Arab world.

    Yes, I do in fact know that, quite intimately.

    Anyway what I meant by seeming US interest was an active one during the protests.

    Hakkekage on
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  • HozHoz Cool Cat Registered User regular
    edited January 2011
    6a00d83451c45669e20148c79e65fc970c-550wi
    Ok, what's going on here?

    Hoz on
  • programjunkieprogramjunkie Registered User regular
    edited January 2011
    Hoz wrote: »
    (PIC SNIPPED)
    Ok, what's going on here?

    Pic wise or text?

    The title says (approximately): Tunisian Law: The Tunisian Minister of State violated the constitution.

    programjunkie on
    Wicked Demiurge in most games. Solacus is my main in GW2.
  • HozHoz Cool Cat Registered User regular
    edited January 2011
    I'm just wondering what he's crying about.

    Hoz on
  • programjunkieprogramjunkie Registered User regular
    edited January 2011
    Hoz wrote: »
    I'm just wondering what he's crying about.

    I'm kind of curious as well, since it's there.

    I think we can eliminate tear gas due to the rest of the crowd.

    programjunkie on
    Wicked Demiurge in most games. Solacus is my main in GW2.
  • HozHoz Cool Cat Registered User regular
    edited January 2011
    It looks like the crowd and the riot police are just casually mingling.

    Hoz on
  • TheOrangeTheOrange Registered User regular
    edited January 2011
    Actually it isn't Tunisian Law, its a person who's name is derived from Tunisian Law who said that.

    TheOrange on
  • PrionburgerPrionburger Registered User
    edited January 2011
    This is a totally new development in history. The US establishment has been supporting brutal Arab dictatorships in the Middle East for a long time (for economic reasons), and this is the first time I've seen a revolt from ordinary people that appears to have a center that isn't insane (IE, not backwards religious).

    This is potentially a revolution of genuinely normal people! Kick some authoritarian ass guys! Yeah! Who cares if our bullshit government is behind your oppressor. We're totally behind you!

    Prionburger on
  • KalkinoKalkino Buttons Londres Registered User regular
    edited January 2011
    Hmm, the BBC is currently focusing on the evacuation of British tourists from Tunisia. For non Europeans - Tunisia is a reasonably popular holiday destination for Europeans - the attractions being beach resorts/old cities/history etc. My housemate spent a week there last year, as an example. The evacuation has started a lot of further disruption - holiday flights to all sorts of destinations have been cancelled due to the planes being sent to Tunisia

    More has come from France overnight - The President and co seemingly decided rather late in the piece not to allow the former president to land. The Foreign Minister made some sort of comment that France could help with law and order / anti riot techniques, which has gone down like a lead balloon in the social media universe.

    I guess the question is now whether or not the new regime will regain control of the streets

    Kalkino on
    Freedom for the Northern Isles!
  • CalixtusCalixtus Registered User regular
    edited January 2011
    Ben Ali has apparently ended up in Saudi-Arabia, amongst the world leading experts on excesses-of-a-ruling class without incurring a revolution.

    Will be interesting to see how this unfolds, even if my inner cynic keeps getting caught up on the fact that the New Guy is really one of Old Guys allies who might just be seeing an opportunity to get a bigger slice of the pie.

    Or he's riding the tiger of a populace who just realized they had the power to chase their corrupt chief of state the fuck out of Dodge.

    Calixtus on
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  • BastableBastable Registered User regular
    edited January 2011
    Al-Jazeera Have been pointing out that the current chap in control Prime Minister Ghannouchi attempted to declare himself president after Ben Ali fled first to France (rejected by Sarkzoy) then to Saudi. Tunisia's courts then just declared the speaker of the house (Fouad Mebazaa) as President and told him to carry out the constitutionally correct thing of preparing the landscape for an election within 60 days. So it seems like the country seems to have taken the path of maintaining their own constitution and therefore the rule of law as opposed to el presidenta style shinanigins, assuming that elections are held though.

    http://english.aljazeera.net/news/africa/2011/01/20111153616298850.html

    Bastable on
    Philippe about the tactical deployment of german Kradschützen during the battle of Kursk:
    "I think I can comment on this because I used to live above the Baby Doll Lounge, a topless bar that was once frequented by bikers in lower Manhattan."

  • BastableBastable Registered User regular
    edited January 2011
    opinons from Al Jazeera's current political analyst : http://english.aljazeera.net/news/africa/2011/01/20111153616298850.html

    Pretty much bitterness that no one in the west (EU USA?) gave a damn about Ben Ali's regime being a nasty police state riddled with tribal/family based corruption because it was a staunch ally in anti terrorism and anti Islamic radicalism. Ie Bush in 2004 going on record on what a swell guy Ben Ali was for holding free and fair elections and Sarkozy doing the same in 2008.

    Bastable on
    Philippe about the tactical deployment of german Kradschützen during the battle of Kursk:
    "I think I can comment on this because I used to live above the Baby Doll Lounge, a topless bar that was once frequented by bikers in lower Manhattan."

  • KalkinoKalkino Buttons Londres Registered User regular
    edited January 2011
    Bastable wrote: »
    opinons from Al Jazeera's current political analyst : http://english.aljazeera.net/news/africa/2011/01/20111153616298850.html

    Pretty much bitterness that no one in the west (EU USA?) gave a damn about Ben Ali's regime being a nasty police state riddled with tribal/family based corruption because it was a staunch ally in anti terrorism and anti Islamic radicalism. Ie Bush in 2004 going on record on what a swell guy Ben Ali was for holding free and fair elections and Sarkozy doing the same in 2008.

    Seems to be a fair enough reason to be bitter. No one likes to be the victim of realpolitik

    Kalkino on
    Freedom for the Northern Isles!
  • BastableBastable Registered User regular
    edited January 2011
    Well it seems alot of the groundswell of support after that poor chap set himself on fire was due to the wikileak cables detailing Ben Ali/family/crony corruption and the massive internet crackdown the Government carried out due to wikileaks cables. Straws that broke the camels back it seems.

    Yeah I get the bitterness, or the reasons why one is bitter. But using words that just seem layered disappointment and pain and the resulting lashing out of: "The so called free world." Just makes westerners sort of shut off. Or maybe it's late at night here.

    Bastable on
    Philippe about the tactical deployment of german Kradschützen during the battle of Kursk:
    "I think I can comment on this because I used to live above the Baby Doll Lounge, a topless bar that was once frequented by bikers in lower Manhattan."

  • Anarchy Rules!Anarchy Rules! Registered User regular
    edited January 2011
    Had a gander of the Independent today, seem to suggest that it's purely economic unrest due to high levels of corruption and high youth unemployment.

    For a centre-left paper it seemed to support Ben Ali remarkably strongly by ensuring a stable state with effective control on islamic terrorism.

    Anarchy Rules! on
  • KalkinoKalkino Buttons Londres Registered User regular
    edited January 2011
    Had a gander of the Independent today, seem to suggest that it's purely economic unrest due to high levels of corruption and high youth unemployment.

    For a centre-left paper it seemed to support Ben Ali remarkably strongly by ensuring a stable state with effective controldp on islamic terrorism.

    Do a search on the owner of the Independent and all will become clear

    Kalkino on
    Freedom for the Northern Isles!
  • adytumadytum Registered User regular
    edited January 2011
    The Middle Eastern states all have a lot of problems with high unemployment, as their economies are all kinds of warped. In a lot of places, the government is seen as being responsible for giving everyone a job. (a bit of a simplification, but it's a problem)

    I wonder what kind of reforms Tunisia is going to take after this, if any.

    adytum on
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  • MKRMKR Registered User regular
    edited January 2011
    Free Falafel Fridays

    MKR on
  • PixiStyxPixiStyx Registered User
    edited January 2011
    Heard about Tunisia on the radio! And yes, I listen to the radio. What can I say? NPR and the BBC rock.

    Very hopeful development. So long as things stay peaceful!

    PixiStyx on
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  • Ethan SmithEthan Smith Origin name: Beart4to Arlington, VARegistered User regular
    edited January 2011
    yo Kalkino, is it ok if I copypasta your OP because it's midnight and I don't want to do my own write up on another forum?

    Also I'm hoping that Tunisia moves towards, at least, a more political society while still being kinda weirdly pluralistic (in the Linzian sense of the term).

    Also I'm sad, in a weird way, because Tunisia was going to be one of the countries I listed as an example for my senior project.

    Ethan Smith on
    I would be ashamed to admit that I had risen from the ranks. When I rise it will be with the ranks, and not from the ranks..
  • BastableBastable Registered User regular
    edited January 2011
    It seems that looting has begun. Things seem to be confused as people are reporting that it is masterminded by elements of police and interior ministry while also noting that some if it is targeted to businesses owed by Ben Ali's family. Seems one of Ben Ali's inlaws has been stabbed to death.

    Bastable on
    Philippe about the tactical deployment of german Kradschützen during the battle of Kursk:
    "I think I can comment on this because I used to live above the Baby Doll Lounge, a topless bar that was once frequented by bikers in lower Manhattan."

  • KalkinoKalkino Buttons Londres Registered User regular
    edited January 2011
    yo Kalkino, is it ok if I copypasta your OP because it's midnight and I don't want to do my own write up on another forum?

    Also I'm hoping that Tunisia moves towards, at least, a more political society while still being kinda weirdly pluralistic (in the Linzian sense of the term).

    Also I'm sad, in a weird way, because Tunisia was going to be one of the countries I listed as an example for my senior project.

    If you still need to do so, then go ahead.

    Kalkino on
    Freedom for the Northern Isles!
  • KalkinoKalkino Buttons Londres Registered User regular
    edited January 2011
    So I was talking to a North African Arab friend last night in the pub and she was saying that the stories of corruption, lack of opportunity for educated middle class (and probably all others too) types and tight state control ring pretty true for her and most of her contemporaries, which is why she is in London. Whenever she goes back to visit her family and friends, there appears to be a longing to move to the West to escape this drudgery, but most North Africans can only go to Europe for holidays, as few European states make it easy for immigration from N Africa these days.

    She also said that the stories that had come out this last month or so in Tunisia are widely discussed in her country too, so despite any efforts to perhaps control this kind of discussion, people are talking about it and empathising with the need for change. It must be a pretty scary time for those in control in Morocco, Algeria, Egypt and Syria I would think

    Kalkino on
    Freedom for the Northern Isles!
  • TheOrangeTheOrange Registered User regular
    edited January 2011
    Calixtus wrote: »
    Ben Ali has apparently ended up in Saudi-Arabia, amongst the world leading experts on excesses-of-a-ruling class without incurring a revolution.

    Will be interesting to see how this unfolds, even if my inner cynic keeps getting caught up on the fact that the New Guy is really one of Old Guys allies who might just be seeing an opportunity to get a bigger slice of the pie.

    Or he's riding the tiger of a populace who just realized they had the power to chase their corrupt chief of state the fuck out of Dodge.

    Hey I have my issues on excesses-of-a-ruling class but harboring Ben Ali isn't one of them, he is done and can no longer hurt anyone and I'm ok with him living in my country as long as its his final public apperance; he should never be heard from again.

    TheOrange on
  • KalkinoKalkino Buttons Londres Registered User regular
    edited January 2011
    Al-Jaz has some interesting updates

    Armed militias have taken to the streets of Tunisia following the toppling of longtime ruler Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, sowing fear among the population as the country's new leadership attempts to bring order and form a coalition government.

    Looting and deadly prison riots have erupted throughout the country after mass protests forced Ben Ali, who had been in power since 1987, to flee to Saudi Arabia.

    "There is a real sense of fear right now on the streets," said Al Jazeera's Nazanine Moshiri, reporting from Tunis, the capital.

    Kalkino on
    Freedom for the Northern Isles!
  • [Tycho?][Tycho?] Registered User regular
    edited January 2011
    Kalkino wrote: »
    So I was talking to a North African Arab friend last night in the pub and she was saying that the stories of corruption, lack of opportunity for educated middle class (and probably all others too) types and tight state control ring pretty true for her and most of her contemporaries, which is why she is in London. Whenever she goes back to visit her family and friends, there appears to be a longing to move to the West to escape this drudgery, but most North Africans can only go to Europe for holidays, as few European states make it easy for immigration from N Africa these days.

    She also said that the stories that had come out this last month or so in Tunisia are widely discussed in her country too, so despite any efforts to perhaps control this kind of discussion, people are talking about it and empathising with the need for change. It must be a pretty scary time for those in control in Morocco, Algeria, Egypt and Syria I would think

    I'm looking at Egypt in particular. There has been a large undercurrent of civil strife there for some time, what with the constantly rigged elections and what-not. With Mubarak getting pretty old and the succession still a bit in question, Egypt is ripe for further instability.

    [Tycho?] on
    mvaYcgc.jpg
  • KalkinoKalkino Buttons Londres Registered User regular
    edited January 2011
    [Tycho?] wrote: »
    Kalkino wrote: »
    So I was talking to a North African Arab friend last night in the pub and she was saying that the stories of corruption, lack of opportunity for educated middle class (and probably all others too) types and tight state control ring pretty true for her and most of her contemporaries, which is why she is in London. Whenever she goes back to visit her family and friends, there appears to be a longing to move to the West to escape this drudgery, but most North Africans can only go to Europe for holidays, as few European states make it easy for immigration from N Africa these days.

    She also said that the stories that had come out this last month or so in Tunisia are widely discussed in her country too, so despite any efforts to perhaps control this kind of discussion, people are talking about it and empathising with the need for change. It must be a pretty scary time for those in control in Morocco, Algeria, Egypt and Syria I would think

    I'm looking at Egypt in particular. There has been a large undercurrent of civil strife there for some time, what with the constantly rigged elections and what-not. With Mubarak getting pretty old and the succession still a bit in question, Egypt is ripe for further instability.

    Sure, but I suspect the US would be willing to stand behind the Egyptian leadership for quite some time, considering their view on likely replacement regimes.

    Kalkino on
    Freedom for the Northern Isles!
  • [Tycho?][Tycho?] Registered User regular
    edited January 2011
    Kalkino wrote: »
    [Tycho?] wrote: »
    Kalkino wrote: »
    So I was talking to a North African Arab friend last night in the pub and she was saying that the stories of corruption, lack of opportunity for educated middle class (and probably all others too) types and tight state control ring pretty true for her and most of her contemporaries, which is why she is in London. Whenever she goes back to visit her family and friends, there appears to be a longing to move to the West to escape this drudgery, but most North Africans can only go to Europe for holidays, as few European states make it easy for immigration from N Africa these days.

    She also said that the stories that had come out this last month or so in Tunisia are widely discussed in her country too, so despite any efforts to perhaps control this kind of discussion, people are talking about it and empathising with the need for change. It must be a pretty scary time for those in control in Morocco, Algeria, Egypt and Syria I would think

    I'm looking at Egypt in particular. There has been a large undercurrent of civil strife there for some time, what with the constantly rigged elections and what-not. With Mubarak getting pretty old and the succession still a bit in question, Egypt is ripe for further instability.

    Sure, but I suspect the US would be willing to stand behind the Egyptian leadership for quite some time, considering their view on likely replacement regimes.

    Yup. And that makes the populace all the more pissed off at that leadership and the US. Popular uprisings in these oppressed countries, if they succeed, will not likely produce governments that are at all friendly to the US.

    [Tycho?] on
    mvaYcgc.jpg
  • ElkiElki learned nothing, and forgotten nothing Moderator, ClubPA mod
    edited January 2011
    I always thought Egypt would be the first: Egypt, Tunisia, and then in no particular order Algeria, Jordan, Sudan, and Yemen. But go Tunisia!

    Elki on
    NPLhC7Z.png
  • ElkiElki learned nothing, and forgotten nothing Moderator, ClubPA mod
    edited January 2011
    Kalkino wrote: »
    Sure, but I suspect the US would be willing to stand behind the Egyptian leadership for quite some time, considering their view on likely replacement regimes.

    I don't think anyone who grew up in my generation, or... really anyone, is waiting for US support, expecting US support, or even wants US support. The US relationship with Arab dictators has been, for a while, just another talking point (damning to the governments) to mention, not really something actively lamented.

    Elki on
    NPLhC7Z.png
  • KalkinoKalkino Buttons Londres Registered User regular
    edited January 2011
    Elki wrote: »
    Kalkino wrote: »
    Sure, but I suspect the US would be willing to stand behind the Egyptian leadership for quite some time, considering their view on likely replacement regimes.

    I don't think anyone who grew up in my generation, or... really anyone, is waiting for US support, expecting US support, or even wants US support. The US relationship with Arab dictators has been, for a while, just another talking point (damning to the governments) to mention, not really something actively lamented.

    I guess I probably should have picked up on this already, but does the above mean you are / were North African Arab?

    Kalkino on
    Freedom for the Northern Isles!
  • ElkiElki learned nothing, and forgotten nothing Moderator, ClubPA mod
    edited January 2011
    Kalkino wrote: »
    Elki wrote: »
    Kalkino wrote: »
    Sure, but I suspect the US would be willing to stand behind the Egyptian leadership for quite some time, considering their view on likely replacement regimes.

    I don't think anyone who grew up in my generation, or... really anyone, is waiting for US support, expecting US support, or even wants US support. The US relationship with Arab dictators has been, for a while, just another talking point (damning to the governments) to mention, not really something actively lamented.

    I guess I probably should have picked up on this already, but does the above mean you are / were North African Arab?

    Born in Sudan, then moved around between Sudan, Libya, and Egypt.

    Elki on
    NPLhC7Z.png
  • FencingsaxFencingsax It is difficult to get a man to understand, when his salary depends upon his not understanding GNU Terry PratchettRegistered User regular
    edited January 2011
    I have to say, from the very little I saw in the English language papers while I was there, Egypt is pretty damn worried about Sudan's succession election.

    Fencingsax on
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  • KalkinoKalkino Buttons Londres Registered User regular
    edited January 2011
    Elki wrote: »
    Kalkino wrote: »
    Elki wrote: »
    Kalkino wrote: »
    Sure, but I suspect the US would be willing to stand behind the Egyptian leadership for quite some time, considering their view on likely replacement regimes.

    I don't think anyone who grew up in my generation, or... really anyone, is waiting for US support, expecting US support, or even wants US support. The US relationship with Arab dictators has been, for a while, just another talking point (damning to the governments) to mention, not really something actively lamented.

    I guess I probably should have picked up on this already, but does the above mean you are / were North African Arab?

    Born in Sudan, then moved around between Sudan, Libya, and Egypt.

    Ahh, well you certainly must have a much better understanding than the rest of us of the situation and how it is unfolding. Have you been reading the Tunisian social media updates or the Arab language media?

    What are your thoughts on the ability of the PM/someone else from the old regime patching together some sort of stable Tunisian government?

    Kalkino on
    Freedom for the Northern Isles!
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