Let me remind you about how I use the term “swing state” here at FiveThirtyEight. When I employ the term, I mean a state that could swing the outcome of the election. That is, if the state changed hands, the victor in the Electoral College would change as well.
...
From Barack Obama’s perspective in 2008, for instance, his easiest three electoral votes were in the District of Columbia. The next-easiest were the four electoral votes in Hawaii, giving him seven total. Repeat this process and you find that Colorado was the tipping point state in 2008, putting him over the top with 278 electoral votes. (Although, winning Iowa but not Colorado would have sufficed to give Mr. Obama 269 electoral votes, an exact tie in the Electoral College.)
....
A good post, but Nate doesn't really get to redefine terms like that. Nobody else uses that definition for swing state.
He doesn't really define it like that either. The next line is basically relabeling that the "tipping point" state.
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KalTorakOne way or another, they all end up inthe Undercity.Registered Userregular
Here's what I can't figure out: I feel like, given his personality, his position, and his background, it's almost guaranteed that Romney has had one or more extramarital affairs.
So where are they?
I dunno, I don't find it that hard to believe that he's never cheated. What are you referring to?
Romney has $200 million plus in the bank and a fuckload of wealthy donor cash; if there's a fabulous 23 year old gay man out there with incriminating evidence, he's chilling on a private island macking on his poolboy right now.
Let me remind you about how I use the term “swing state” here at FiveThirtyEight. When I employ the term, I mean a state that could swing the outcome of the election. That is, if the state changed hands, the victor in the Electoral College would change as well.
...
From Barack Obama’s perspective in 2008, for instance, his easiest three electoral votes were in the District of Columbia. The next-easiest were the four electoral votes in Hawaii, giving him seven total. Repeat this process and you find that Colorado was the tipping point state in 2008, putting him over the top with 278 electoral votes. (Although, winning Iowa but not Colorado would have sufficed to give Mr. Obama 269 electoral votes, an exact tie in the Electoral College.)
....
Yeah, I read that earlier. But I don't really agree with his definition of a swing State. For all intents and purposes, "swing State" refers to s State which could swing either direction in the election. Giving it a different, and much more specialized and limited, definition seems pretty useless.
I call that a "toss-up". My understood definition of "swing state" was the same as the one Nate used.
Let me remind you about how I use the term “swing state” here at FiveThirtyEight. When I employ the term, I mean a state that could swing the outcome of the election. That is, if the state changed hands, the victor in the Electoral College would change as well.
...
From Barack Obama’s perspective in 2008, for instance, his easiest three electoral votes were in the District of Columbia. The next-easiest were the four electoral votes in Hawaii, giving him seven total. Repeat this process and you find that Colorado was the tipping point state in 2008, putting him over the top with 278 electoral votes. (Although, winning Iowa but not Colorado would have sufficed to give Mr. Obama 269 electoral votes, an exact tie in the Electoral College.)
....
And to borrow some more of Nate's data: If Obama loses 4% of the vote in every state compared with 2008, the map looks like this:
Let me remind you about how I use the term “swing state” here at FiveThirtyEight. When I employ the term, I mean a state that could swing the outcome of the election. That is, if the state changed hands, the victor in the Electoral College would change as well.
...
From Barack Obama’s perspective in 2008, for instance, his easiest three electoral votes were in the District of Columbia. The next-easiest were the four electoral votes in Hawaii, giving him seven total. Repeat this process and you find that Colorado was the tipping point state in 2008, putting him over the top with 278 electoral votes. (Although, winning Iowa but not Colorado would have sufficed to give Mr. Obama 269 electoral votes, an exact tie in the Electoral College.)
....
And to borrow some more of Nate's data: If Obama loses 4% of the vote in every state compared with 2008, the map looks like this:
Let me remind you about how I use the term “swing state” here at FiveThirtyEight. When I employ the term, I mean a state that could swing the outcome of the election. That is, if the state changed hands, the victor in the Electoral College would change as well.
...
From Barack Obama’s perspective in 2008, for instance, his easiest three electoral votes were in the District of Columbia. The next-easiest were the four electoral votes in Hawaii, giving him seven total. Repeat this process and you find that Colorado was the tipping point state in 2008, putting him over the top with 278 electoral votes. (Although, winning Iowa but not Colorado would have sufficed to give Mr. Obama 269 electoral votes, an exact tie in the Electoral College.)
....
And to borrow some more of Nate's data: If Obama loses 4% of the vote in every state compared with 2008, the map looks like this:
Romney might not be able to win it himself (I'd say he could, since Obama's not that far ahead), but Obama can certainly lose it if the economy stagnates or if Europe rapidly gets worse or if Israel starts a war with Iran.
Let me remind you about how I use the term “swing state” here at FiveThirtyEight. When I employ the term, I mean a state that could swing the outcome of the election. That is, if the state changed hands, the victor in the Electoral College would change as well.
...
From Barack Obama’s perspective in 2008, for instance, his easiest three electoral votes were in the District of Columbia. The next-easiest were the four electoral votes in Hawaii, giving him seven total. Repeat this process and you find that Colorado was the tipping point state in 2008, putting him over the top with 278 electoral votes. (Although, winning Iowa but not Colorado would have sufficed to give Mr. Obama 269 electoral votes, an exact tie in the Electoral College.)
....
And to borrow some more of Nate's data: If Obama loses 4% of the vote in every state compared with 2008, the map looks like this:
Let me remind you about how I use the term “swing state” here at FiveThirtyEight. When I employ the term, I mean a state that could swing the outcome of the election. That is, if the state changed hands, the victor in the Electoral College would change as well.
...
From Barack Obama’s perspective in 2008, for instance, his easiest three electoral votes were in the District of Columbia. The next-easiest were the four electoral votes in Hawaii, giving him seven total. Repeat this process and you find that Colorado was the tipping point state in 2008, putting him over the top with 278 electoral votes. (Although, winning Iowa but not Colorado would have sufficed to give Mr. Obama 269 electoral votes, an exact tie in the Electoral College.)
....
And to borrow some more of Nate's data: If Obama loses 4% of the vote in every state compared with 2008, the map looks like this:
Well, the point was he can win it and still lose if Obama holds on to every state he won by 9% or more.
That's...wow...when you put it like that, that's...wow.
Well, it's probably about half as good as it sounds since a switched vote changes the margin by 2. Obviously there's no guarantee that the states will line up the same way this time, I mean Minnesota was pretty close to the tipping point as well. But it does give him a fair bit of leeway.
Let me remind you about how I use the term “swing state” here at FiveThirtyEight. When I employ the term, I mean a state that could swing the outcome of the election. That is, if the state changed hands, the victor in the Electoral College would change as well.
...
From Barack Obama’s perspective in 2008, for instance, his easiest three electoral votes were in the District of Columbia. The next-easiest were the four electoral votes in Hawaii, giving him seven total. Repeat this process and you find that Colorado was the tipping point state in 2008, putting him over the top with 278 electoral votes. (Although, winning Iowa but not Colorado would have sufficed to give Mr. Obama 269 electoral votes, an exact tie in the Electoral College.)
....
And to borrow some more of Nate's data: If Obama loses 4% of the vote in every state compared with 2008, the map looks like this:
Romney might not be able to win it himself (I'd say he could, since Obama's not that far ahead), but Obama can certainly lose it if the economy stagnates or if Europe rapidly gets worse or if Israel starts a war with Iran.
Does it seem strange to anyone else that we're MORE likely to elect a different President if there's some kind of external crisis?
Let me remind you about how I use the term “swing state” here at FiveThirtyEight. When I employ the term, I mean a state that could swing the outcome of the election. That is, if the state changed hands, the victor in the Electoral College would change as well.
...
From Barack Obama’s perspective in 2008, for instance, his easiest three electoral votes were in the District of Columbia. The next-easiest were the four electoral votes in Hawaii, giving him seven total. Repeat this process and you find that Colorado was the tipping point state in 2008, putting him over the top with 278 electoral votes. (Although, winning Iowa but not Colorado would have sufficed to give Mr. Obama 269 electoral votes, an exact tie in the Electoral College.)
....
And to borrow some more of Nate's data: If Obama loses 4% of the vote in every state compared with 2008, the map looks like this:
Romney might not be able to win it himself (I'd say he could, since Obama's not that far ahead), but Obama can certainly lose it if the economy stagnates or if Europe rapidly gets worse or if Israel starts a war with Iran.
Does it seem strange to anyone else that we're MORE likely to elect a different President if there's some kind of external crisis?
Yeah I'm not sure its actually true. Incumbency usually helps if times of "national unity". Its only if that ends up hurting the US domestically or the President really doesn't seem competent in foreign affairs (Carter and the Iran Hostages)
No, I am not really communist. Yes, it is weird that I use this name.
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ShadowenSnores in the morningLoserdomRegistered Userregular
edited April 2012
Obama in election mode will beat Romney like a red-headed stepchild. It's like Bush in 2004, except he can be at least halfway honest and Romney still comes off looking like a flip-flopping out-of-touch lying shitstain.
I can't help but think of Lisa Ann when I think of Palin.
There are worse things to think about. Palin quitting halfway through her gubernatorial term. The Bridge to Nowhere. Hunting wolves on chopper-back. The whole thing with the rape kits having to be paid for by the victims...
Really, when the Hustler porno parody of you isn't as bad as the most demeaning thing to women in your actual personal legacy, you've done something horribly wrong.
Obama in election mode will beat Romney like a red-headed stepchild. It's like Bush in 2004, except he can be at least halfway honest and Romney still comes off looking like a flip-flopping out-of-touch lying shitstain.
I can't help but think of Lisa Ann when I think of Palin.
There are worse things to think about. Palin quitting halfway through her gubernatorial term. The Bridge to Nowhere. Hunting wolves on chopper-back. The whole thing with the rape kits having to be paid for by the victims...
Really, when the Hustler porno parody of you isn't as bad as the most demeaning thing to women in your actual personal legacy, you've done something horribly wrong.
Wasn't Palin against the Bridge to Nowhere?
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KalTorakOne way or another, they all end up inthe Undercity.Registered Userregular
And as long as I’m president, we are going to keep moving forward. You can count on that. You don’t have to take my word on it – you’ve got my signature on it. Because something like standing up for the principle of equal pay for equal work isn’t something I’m going to have to “get back to you on” – it’s the first law I signed.
Self-righteousness is incompatible with coalition building.
Now, I believe that being willing to change your mind on a subject is proof of being a mature and developed human being. Because one of the most fundamental things that we have as a species is that we can (sometimes) admit we were wrong. What I'm seeing currently with Romney and Santorum and Palin and the rest isn't that they're changing their mind, it's that they're trying to say they've always thought the way they currently do, and if you quote me saying something else you're a liar and a communist.
Obama in election mode will beat Romney like a red-headed stepchild. It's like Bush in 2004, except he can be at least halfway honest and Romney still comes off looking like a flip-flopping out-of-touch lying shitstain.
I can't help but think of Lisa Ann when I think of Palin.
There are worse things to think about. Palin quitting halfway through her gubernatorial term. The Bridge to Nowhere. Hunting wolves on chopper-back. The whole thing with the rape kits having to be paid for by the victims...
Really, when the Hustler porno parody of you isn't as bad as the most demeaning thing to women in your actual personal legacy, you've done something horribly wrong.
Wasn't Palin against the Bridge to Nowhere?
More specifically, she was for getting the funding, stealing said funding, and THEN opposing it.
Obama in election mode will beat Romney like a red-headed stepchild. It's like Bush in 2004, except he can be at least halfway honest and Romney still comes off looking like a flip-flopping out-of-touch lying shitstain.
I can't help but think of Lisa Ann when I think of Palin.
There are worse things to think about. Palin quitting halfway through her gubernatorial term. The Bridge to Nowhere. Hunting wolves on chopper-back. The whole thing with the rape kits having to be paid for by the victims...
Really, when the Hustler porno parody of you isn't as bad as the most demeaning thing to women in your actual personal legacy, you've done something horribly wrong.
Wasn't Palin against the Bridge to Nowhere?
More specifically, she was for getting the funding, stealing said funding, and THEN opposing it.
Obama in election mode will beat Romney like a red-headed stepchild. It's like Bush in 2004, except he can be at least halfway honest and Romney still comes off looking like a flip-flopping out-of-touch lying shitstain.
I can't help but think of Lisa Ann when I think of Palin.
There are worse things to think about. Palin quitting halfway through her gubernatorial term. The Bridge to Nowhere. Hunting wolves on chopper-back. The whole thing with the rape kits having to be paid for by the victims...
Really, when the Hustler porno parody of you isn't as bad as the most demeaning thing to women in your actual personal legacy, you've done something horribly wrong.
Wasn't Palin against the Bridge to Nowhere?
More specifically, she was for getting the funding, stealing said funding, and THEN opposing it.
That woman has no shame.
Well, to be fair, that's sort of the Alaska way. Beg the federal government for funds, keep all the oil wealth for your state, and criticize the lower 48 for having to rely on "taxes" to fund their government.
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ShadowenSnores in the morningLoserdomRegistered Userregular
And as long as I’m president, we are going to keep moving forward. You can count on that. You don’t have to take my word on it – you’ve got my signature on it. Because something like standing up for the principle of equal pay for equal work isn’t something I’m going to have to “get back to you on” – it’s the first law I signed.
I think I heard Mitt whimper in pain, far in the distance...
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Just_Bri_ThanksSeething with ragefrom a handbasket.Registered User, ClubPAregular
Obama in election mode will beat Romney like a red-headed stepchild. It's like Bush in 2004, except he can be at least halfway honest and Romney still comes off looking like a flip-flopping out-of-touch lying shitstain.
I can't help but think of Lisa Ann when I think of Palin.
There are worse things to think about. Palin quitting halfway through her gubernatorial term. The Bridge to Nowhere. Hunting wolves on chopper-back. The whole thing with the rape kits having to be paid for by the victims...
Really, when the Hustler porno parody of you isn't as bad as the most demeaning thing to women in your actual personal legacy, you've done something horribly wrong.
Wasn't Palin against the Bridge to Nowhere?
More specifically, she was for getting the funding, stealing said funding, and THEN opposing it.
That woman has no shame.
Well, to be fair, that's sort of the Alaska way. Beg the federal government for funds, keep all the oil wealth for your state, and criticize the lower 48 for having to rely on "taxes" to fund their government.
There aught to be a law that states anyone living in Alaska who openly claims to be an Objectivist or Libertarian cannot take legal action against anyone who throws old trash at them.
I've actually had to overhear conversations at the local McD's during lunch about how much guys wished Palin would do Playboy or something like that.
I...I really don't see where the "Palin is hot" thing comes from. Maybe in comparison to the 60+ year old women you usually see in politics?
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ShadowenSnores in the morningLoserdomRegistered Userregular
Let's be honest. Palin is, on a purely physical level, a conventionally attractive woman. However, her voice and personality kill it, and the kind of people who still read fucking Playboy (seriously?) are the kind who don't care about either.
Let's be honest. Palin is, on a purely physical level, a conventionally attractive woman. However, her voice and personality kill it, and the kind of people who still read fucking Playboy (seriously?) are the kind who don't care about either.
She really isn't. Maybe like you said it's because I know she's an abusive monster that treats her children as tools and uses religion as a weapon but I have never considered her remotely attractive.
I have a podcast now. It's about video games and anime!Find it here.
I've actually had to overhear conversations at the local McD's during lunch about how much guys wished Palin would do Playboy or something like that.
I...I really don't see where the "Palin is hot" thing comes from. Maybe in comparison to the 60+ year old women you usually see in politics?
Look at her publicity shots, only look at the good ones, and include the photoshops because an idiotic right-winger won't want to know the difference. Aside from being told by the mass media she is hot and right (loldoublemeaning) and so much better than the democrat women who are all ugly bull-dyke hos (contradictions are fun!); she is ALSO a combination of the Freudian mommy fetish and the sexy schoolmarm/librarian look. And I could extrapolate from there into cheap shots about conservatives and Freud and fetishes but I think it's easier to just focus on the fact that "hot" is heavily influenced by what we believe other people consider "hot."
Then there's Bristol, did you know her "baby-daddy" has knocked up another girl? I know the Idiocracy is a childish way of looking at society but damned if it isn't tempting.
edit: I'm sorry, looking back I realize we're wandering way off topic. Romney may not actually HAVE any values he holds strongly, but what has he said about environmental policy? The heavily-hammered "Job-killing regulations" lie as well as Dubya's massive polluting and Romney's recent, "let's keep the waters clean, and by that I mean internet pornography, not these rivers that are literally being buried under toxic waste," has me concerned. Not to mention BP and the Gulf Shrmp (they got no Is man!).
The thing about Mormonism is this: you have to go whole hog with it. If he had extra marital affairs, those women would be wives and out in the open. I dont find it hard to believe that a Mormon who is in this position right now did not have women on the side.
Edit: and the palin in playboy comment. Think about it for a moment, you are talking about people that still buy their pornography on paper instead of getting it on the internet like civilized people. And this is only half joking.
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He doesn't really define it like that either. The next line is basically relabeling that the "tipping point" state.
I dunno, I don't find it that hard to believe that he's never cheated. What are you referring to?
Bill Clinton: *cough*George W Bush*cough* Man. Obama sure killed the fuck out of OBL huh? That was awesome. Not sure why Mitt Romney is such a pussy.
QEDMF xbl: PantsB G+
Romney's too boring to sleep.
twitch.tv/Taramoor
@TaramoorPlays
Taramoor on Youtube
I call that a "toss-up". My understood definition of "swing state" was the same as the one Nate used.
theres no way Romney's gonna win Ohio
Well, the point was he can win it and still lose if Obama holds on to every state he won by 9% or more.
Romney might not be able to win it himself (I'd say he could, since Obama's not that far ahead), but Obama can certainly lose it if the economy stagnates or if Europe rapidly gets worse or if Israel starts a war with Iran.
That's...wow...when you put it like that, that's...wow.
Well, it's probably about half as good as it sounds since a switched vote changes the margin by 2. Obviously there's no guarantee that the states will line up the same way this time, I mean Minnesota was pretty close to the tipping point as well. But it does give him a fair bit of leeway.
I am liking them.
Battlenet ID: MildC#11186 - If I'm in the game, send me an invite at anytime and I'll play.
Does it seem strange to anyone else that we're MORE likely to elect a different President if there's some kind of external crisis?
twitch.tv/Taramoor
@TaramoorPlays
Taramoor on Youtube
Yeah I'm not sure its actually true. Incumbency usually helps if times of "national unity". Its only if that ends up hurting the US domestically or the President really doesn't seem competent in foreign affairs (Carter and the Iran Hostages)
QEDMF xbl: PantsB G+
Well looks life OFA is on top of things.
There are worse things to think about. Palin quitting halfway through her gubernatorial term. The Bridge to Nowhere. Hunting wolves on chopper-back. The whole thing with the rape kits having to be paid for by the victims...
Really, when the Hustler porno parody of you isn't as bad as the most demeaning thing to women in your actual personal legacy, you've done something horribly wrong.
Glorious
Wasn't Palin against the Bridge to Nowhere?
It is like shooting fish in a barrel
Steam ID XBL: JohnnyChopsocky PSN:Stud_Beefpile WiiU:JohnnyChopsocky
Fer it befor she were agin' it.
Now, I believe that being willing to change your mind on a subject is proof of being a mature and developed human being. Because one of the most fundamental things that we have as a species is that we can (sometimes) admit we were wrong. What I'm seeing currently with Romney and Santorum and Palin and the rest isn't that they're changing their mind, it's that they're trying to say they've always thought the way they currently do, and if you quote me saying something else you're a liar and a communist.
twitch.tv/Taramoor
@TaramoorPlays
Taramoor on Youtube
The harder the rain, honey, the sweeter the sun.
More specifically, she was for getting the funding, stealing said funding, and THEN opposing it.
It was a round-table, and they really didn't cut much of anything.
Good god.
The harder the rain, honey, the sweeter the sun.
That woman has no shame.
Well, to be fair, that's sort of the Alaska way. Beg the federal government for funds, keep all the oil wealth for your state, and criticize the lower 48 for having to rely on "taxes" to fund their government.
I think I heard Mitt whimper in pain, far in the distance...
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/04/27/1086786/-Darrell-Issa-Hold-Hearings-To-Expel-Ryan-Cantor-Other-GOP-Who-Plotted-To-Undermine-U-S-Economy
chair to Creation and then suplex the Void.
There aught to be a law that states anyone living in Alaska who openly claims to be an Objectivist or Libertarian cannot take legal action against anyone who throws old trash at them.
If she turned that thing on me I'd probably flee.
I...I really don't see where the "Palin is hot" thing comes from. Maybe in comparison to the 60+ year old women you usually see in politics?
She really isn't. Maybe like you said it's because I know she's an abusive monster that treats her children as tools and uses religion as a weapon but I have never considered her remotely attractive.
Look at her publicity shots, only look at the good ones, and include the photoshops because an idiotic right-winger won't want to know the difference. Aside from being told by the mass media she is hot and right (loldoublemeaning) and so much better than the democrat women who are all ugly bull-dyke hos (contradictions are fun!); she is ALSO a combination of the Freudian mommy fetish and the sexy schoolmarm/librarian look. And I could extrapolate from there into cheap shots about conservatives and Freud and fetishes but I think it's easier to just focus on the fact that "hot" is heavily influenced by what we believe other people consider "hot."
Then there's Bristol, did you know her "baby-daddy" has knocked up another girl? I know the Idiocracy is a childish way of looking at society but damned if it isn't tempting.
edit: I'm sorry, looking back I realize we're wandering way off topic. Romney may not actually HAVE any values he holds strongly, but what has he said about environmental policy? The heavily-hammered "Job-killing regulations" lie as well as Dubya's massive polluting and Romney's recent, "let's keep the waters clean, and by that I mean internet pornography, not these rivers that are literally being buried under toxic waste," has me concerned. Not to mention BP and the Gulf Shrmp (they got no Is man!).
Edit: and the palin in playboy comment. Think about it for a moment, you are talking about people that still buy their pornography on paper instead of getting it on the internet like civilized people. And this is only half joking.