I feel behooved to point out that continuing the same extremism is liable to work out well in 2014 midterms for them, and the party establishment is probably very aware of that
infighting right now would cost them the House in 2014 needlessly
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AtomikaLive fast and get fucked or whateverRegistered Userregular
The party was once dominated by the economic wing, and the social conservatives followed. I wonder if there is any way for the party to swing back in that direction.
They need to frame fiscal responsibility as something other than cut taxes cut social services and deregulate everything. Like you know what universal health care is a fiscally responsible measure at this point. Infrastructure investment basically pays for itself over the long term. Regulation can make industries work smarter and better if done properly.
Agreed. "Fiscal responsibility" has to be shown as math on paper, not:
I feel behooved to point out that continuing the same extremism is liable to work out well in 2014 midterms for them, and the party establishment is probably very aware of that
infighting right now would cost them the House in 2014 needlessly
I question the energy of the base against an administration that can't be voted out, especially if there's no other major divisive legislation like the ACA to rally around.
If 2014 rolls around and the economy/employment keeps heading the same way, I struggle to see what the GOP will come up with. I mean, it'll be something, I'm sure, but I've got no idea right now.
I feel behooved to point out that continuing the same extremism is liable to work out well in 2014 midterms for them, and the party establishment is probably very aware of that
infighting right now would cost them the House in 2014 needlessly
Listen, why you got to be all factual and stuff.
This same thought had occurred to me as well. I'm not positive they can just keep playing the same tune. At a certain point the faithful R's who always show up are going to get disheartened or purity test their candidates beyond even what an off year electorate will tolerate.
I feel behooved to point out that continuing the same extremism is liable to work out well in 2014 midterms for them, and the party establishment is probably very aware of that
infighting right now would cost them the House in 2014 needlessly
I question the energy of the base against an administration that can't be voted out, especially if there's no other major divisive legislation like the ACA to rally around.
If 2014 rolls around and the economy/employment keeps heading the same way, I struggle to see what the GOP will come up with. I mean, it'll be something, I'm sure, but I've got no idea right now.
easy enough to find at least one scandal in two years, I suspect
pot and gay marriage are forcing federal decisions now, I note, as is puerto rico
They need to frame fiscal responsibility as something other than cut taxes cut social services and deregulate everything. Like you know what universal health care is a fiscally responsible measure at this point. Infrastructure investment basically pays for itself over the long term. Regulation can make industries work smarter and better if done properly.
Seriously. It may sound crazy, but I think you can actually make a rational conservative argument that the main problem with Obamacare is that it primarily just exacerbated existing problems and didn't do nearly enough to improve or fix anything. I'm not saying the answer is necessarily UHC, that might be hard to sell as a conservative platform. I think a more free-market/safety-net program with strong regulation and incentive towards preventative, universal care would also be mounds better for everyone than what we have now. But yeah, so would UHC.
Republicans need to stay away from social issues, honestly, as they're really bad at it. There's an element of racists and bigots that will always vote Red, so pandering to them is unnecessary. The current problem is that in addition to minorities, you've lost the traditional republican base of the white family man, as you can't vote R with kids in good conscience if you make less than $100k a year and can do math. I've mostly voted D my entire life, but would like to actually have a choice, as I remember the older Repubs in NH were very moderate with stances on social issues that boiled down to "Does it cost me money? No? Do whatever the fuck you want then".
You build a new platform on that, and you'd not only have the R vote, but you'd take a lot of moderates and Democrats.
That said, that's not going to happen, as the South+Texas are currently running the show, and they basically have nothing in common with the coastal west and northeast.
Social issues get ratings, though, so Fox News won't let candidates get away with avoiding social issues. They force Republicans into them under the threat of their underrated power to influence primaries as well as the turnout at general.
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AManFromEarthLet's get to twerk!The King in the SwampRegistered Userregular
I feel behooved to point out that continuing the same extremism is liable to work out well in 2014 midterms for them, and the party establishment is probably very aware of that
infighting right now would cost them the House in 2014 needlessly
I question the energy of the base against an administration that can't be voted out, especially if there's no other major divisive legislation like the ACA to rally around.
If 2014 rolls around and the economy/employment keeps heading the same way, I struggle to see what the GOP will come up with. I mean, it'll be something, I'm sure, but I've got no idea right now.
easy enough to find at least one scandal in two years, I suspect
pot and gay marriage are forcing federal decisions now, I note, as is puerto rico
And these are all issues in which the national zeitgeist is going away from the GOP.
The two take aways from the president's speech last night should be 1.) A warning to liberals abotu getting "wide eyed" and complacent (for 2014) and 2.) A dare to Republicans to keep fucking that chickend (again, for 2014).
It would be a mistake to think that the administration hasn't learned from the last four years.
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AtomikaLive fast and get fucked or whateverRegistered Userregular
easy enough to find at least one scandal in two years, I suspect
pot and gay marriage are forcing federal decisions now, I note, as is puerto rico
I can see the gay marriage thing rousing up the fundie base, but I don't see pot and Puerto Rico doing that at all. Plus, the gay marriage thing might be pretty tired by then. It passed in a few more states last night and Obama already voiced his support for gay rights over a year ago.
(1) GOP establishment has lost control over who they want to pander to, although they clearly retain some influence over what they want to make an issue of,
(2) they really can't change course on fiscal here, given their twin tent groups of retirees who want benefits and tax revolters who want less taxes. There's just no way to reconcile these outlooks.
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AtomikaLive fast and get fucked or whateverRegistered Userregular
edited November 2012
Quick show of hands:
Should the party ask Mitch McConnell to step down as Senate Minority Leader?
Note: this is not the same question as, "Do you think McConnell is good?"
Should the party ask Mitch McConnell to step down as Senate Minority Leader?
That's not going to be the knife fight. The knife fight is the house leadership, especially after the sequestration talks. Will Boehner come out alive? Or will Cantor end up wearing his skull for a hat?
the party at any given time is dominated by people who want power now, not in the distant future. Conservative long-term strategizing is for the think tanks, and American voters have shoddy memory anyway.
I feel behooved to point out that continuing the same extremism is liable to work out well in 2014 midterms for them, and the party establishment is probably very aware of that
infighting right now would cost them the House in 2014 needlessly
I question the energy of the base against an administration that can't be voted out, especially if there's no other major divisive legislation like the ACA to rally around.
If 2014 rolls around and the economy/employment keeps heading the same way, I struggle to see what the GOP will come up with. I mean, it'll be something, I'm sure, but I've got no idea right now.
easy enough to find at least one scandal in two years, I suspect
pot and gay marriage are forcing federal decisions now, I note, as is puerto rico
And these are all issues in which the national zeitgeist is going away from the GOP.
The two take aways from the president's speech last night should be 1.) A warning to liberals abotu getting "wide eyed" and complacent (for 2014) and 2.) A dare to Republicans to keep fucking that chickend (again, for 2014).
It would be a mistake to think that the administration hasn't learned from the last four years.
well
baiting the republicans into arming the fundies too much so that they can't steer the ship in 2016 is also liable to work out well for the Democrats
orthodox US political science once took it as given that the Presidency would be Democrat and House Republican, with the Senate toss-up, due to the Solid South. this only changed relatively recently. but it would not be new for demographic factors to party-lock branches of the government
The first and most important thing I want to see from Republicans is that they begin to actually respect the existence of facts, and that you can't simply invent your own reality and expect the majority of the country to accept it. I want their campaigns to be dictated by fact checkers. I don't want to hear anymore unscientific, blatantly false discussions about the consequences of rape, about global warming, about evolution in schools. The electorate is sick and tired of this bullshit, and enough is enough. Come back to our reality, and stop kicking out of your establishment those who do generally accept reality, like Jon Huntsman.
The second thing I want to see is them making a complete 180 on suppressing the vote and attempting to rig elections by manipulating voting law. Their party has become broadly associated with these things, and while singular instances would not necessarily reflect on the GOP as a whole, when you look at the totality of what they attempted to do this year it becomes too much to ignore. A party which wants to rig elections is no better than the corrupt communist bogeymen it decries. Failure does not excuse the attempt. The GOP must acknowledge that it lives in a democracy and that it does not get to choose who votes in order to seize power. When they do take such actions, it becomes appropriate to ask the otherwise-sensationalistic question: Why do you hate democracy?
Thirdly, they need to realize that the demographics of the country no longer support their racism or brutal immigration policies. I think this will be the easiest one for them to agree to do, after looking at the manner in which they lost this election, but let's start seeing them actually reject the racist assholes and replace them with reasonable individuals.
Finally, if they want to be the "party of fiscal responsibility", fine. Start demonstrating it by paying attention to what economists actually say about economy. You can't reduce the deficit by crashing the economy with ridiculous austerity measures. I'm fine with the talk about closing certain loopholes in our tax code, especially corporate loopholes. But they also need to abandon the foolish idea that lowering tax rates on the wealthy is creating jobs. The country is waking up to the fact that it's bullshit.
The GOP has long pretended in rhetoric that its focus is to help small businesses. They need to start doing this not just in rhetoric, but in fact, by pursuing tax policies which lopsidedly aid true small businesses in service and manufacturing while simultaneously bringing in more tax revenue from large corporations and cutting the unfair advantages those corporations have.
If they focus on revenue, on government efficiency, on small businesses, on moderating the spending of new social initiatives rather than trying to roll back old ones, on promoting domestic growth instead of growth sent overseas, while abandoning their anti-science, anti-equality, anti-democratic wingnuts, they might have a party which resonates with enough of the electorate to have a shot in future elections.
I'm not holding my breath. I'm not sure they've hit rock bottom yet. They may not, until they start losing midterms the way they lost in '08 and last night.
My zombie survival life simulator They Don't Sleep is out now on Steam if you want to check it out.
About Romney's supposed weakness as a candidate: his is a kind of a rephrasing of several points already made on this thread, but many people have said (and I'm one of them) that the weakness of the GOP candidates this year was structural. No candidate capable of winning a Republican primary in the current climate was ever going to be able to beat Obama, Romney was the closest thing and came well short.
Currently the narrative of the conservative world is set by Fox News more than any other one thing, and Fox News so far appears bound and determined not to learn a single lesson from this result.
We joke about LolBush, and I probably wouldn't vote for him if he doesn't moderate his social views quite a bit, but Jeb Bush is one of the best choices for the GOP if they're interested in not going the way of the Whig.
Fifty-three percent of the country still (correctly) blames Bush and his policies for our economic problems. His brother isn't going to be able to get past that.
The first and most important thing I want to see from Republicans is that they begin to actually respect the existence of facts, and that you can't simply invent your own reality and expect the majority of the country to accept it. I want their campaigns to be dictated by fact checkers. I don't want to hear anymore unscientific, blatantly false discussions about the consequences of rape, about global warming, about evolution in schools. The electorate is sick and tired of this bullshit, and enough is enough. Come back to our reality, and stop kicking out of your establishment those who do generally accept reality, like Jon Huntsman.
The second thing I want to see is them making a complete 180 on suppressing the vote and attempting to rig elections by manipulating voting law. Their party has become broadly associated with these things, and while singular instances would not necessarily reflect on the GOP as a whole, when you look at the totality of what they attempted to do this year it becomes too much to ignore. A party which wants to rig elections is no better than the corrupt communist bogeymen it decries. Failure does not excuse the attempt. The GOP must acknowledge that it lives in a democracy and that it does not get to choose who votes in order to seize power. When they do take such actions, it becomes appropriate to ask the otherwise-sensationalistic question: Why do you hate democracy?
Thirdly, they need to realize that the demographics of the country no longer support their racism or brutal immigration policies. I think this will be the easiest one for them to agree to do, after looking at the manner in which they lost this election, but let's start seeing them actually reject the racist assholes and replace them with reasonable individuals.
Finally, if they want to be the "party of fiscal responsibility", fine. Start demonstrating it by paying attention to what economists actually say about economy. You can't reduce the deficit by crashing the economy with ridiculous austerity measures. I'm fine with the talk about closing certain loopholes in our tax code, especially corporate loopholes. But they also need to abandon the foolish idea that lowering tax rates on the wealthy is creating jobs. The country is waking up to the fact that it's bullshit.
The GOP has long pretended in rhetoric that its focus is to help small businesses. They need to start doing this not just in rhetoric, but in fact, by pursuing tax policies which lopsidedly aid true small businesses in service and manufacturing while simultaneously bringing in more tax revenue from large corporations and cutting the unfair advantages those corporations have.
If they focus on revenue, on government efficiency, on small businesses, on moderating the spending of new social initiatives rather than trying to roll back old ones, on promoting domestic growth instead of growth sent overseas, while abandoning their anti-science, anti-equality, anti-democratic wingnuts, they might have a party which resonates with enough of the electorate to have a shot in future elections.
I'm not holding my breath. I'm not sure they've hit rock bottom yet. They may not, until they start losing midterms the way they lost in '08 and last night.
(they're not actually going to do any of those things, even if they manage to reverse course electorally)
I know. They will marginalize themselves even more and may not even be capable of such sweeping change. It may be that the Democrats will have a good, long time in power and it takes a split in the GOP and the emergence of a new party or the growth of an existing third party before things become competitive again outside of midterms.
My zombie survival life simulator They Don't Sleep is out now on Steam if you want to check it out.
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GnomeTankWhat the what?Portland, OregonRegistered Userregular
This election wasn't decided by white guys and I don't see the demographics favoring them ever again more than they did this election
On at least a few platforms the Republicans are going to need to drastically change or they're never getting the big chair again (unless they find a ronald reagan type super charismatic guy)
The white male electorate is effectively dead as a winning political force. In the 67 years between FDR and Clinton, the white electorate only lost around 9 percentage points of strength. In the 16 years between Clinton and Obama, they lost 13 points. It's only projected to go down another 2-3 points by 2016.
This country is becoming more female and more brown by the minute. Republicans will either adapt to that, or they will become a permanent minority party...which would be bad. Our system works best when we have a strong, sane, opposition party. Even if we don't agree with every one of their ideals, it's an important check and balance in our political system. The problem is we don't have as sane or strong opposition party right now.
The first and most important thing I want to see from Republicans is that they begin to actually respect the existence of facts, and that you can't simply invent your own reality and expect the majority of the country to accept it. I want their campaigns to be dictated by fact checkers. I don't want to hear anymore unscientific, blatantly false discussions about the consequences of rape, about global warming, about evolution in schools. The electorate is sick and tired of this bullshit, and enough is enough. Come back to our reality, and stop kicking out of your establishment those who do generally accept reality, like Jon Huntsman.
The second thing I want to see is them making a complete 180 on suppressing the vote and attempting to rig elections by manipulating voting law. Their party has become broadly associated with these things, and while singular instances would not necessarily reflect on the GOP as a whole, when you look at the totality of what they attempted to do this year it becomes too much to ignore. A party which wants to rig elections is no better than the corrupt communist bogeymen it decries. Failure does not excuse the attempt. The GOP must acknowledge that it lives in a democracy and that it does not get to choose who votes in order to seize power. When they do take such actions, it becomes appropriate to ask the otherwise-sensationalistic question: Why do you hate democracy?
Thirdly, they need to realize that the demographics of the country no longer support their racism or brutal immigration policies. I think this will be the easiest one for them to agree to do, after looking at the manner in which they lost this election, but let's start seeing them actually reject the racist assholes and replace them with reasonable individuals.
Finally, if they want to be the "party of fiscal responsibility", fine. Start demonstrating it by paying attention to what economists actually say about economy. You can't reduce the deficit by crashing the economy with ridiculous austerity measures. I'm fine with the talk about closing certain loopholes in our tax code, especially corporate loopholes. But they also need to abandon the foolish idea that lowering tax rates on the wealthy is creating jobs. The country is waking up to the fact that it's bullshit.
The GOP has long pretended in rhetoric that its focus is to help small businesses. They need to start doing this not just in rhetoric, but in fact, by pursuing tax policies which lopsidedly aid true small businesses in service and manufacturing while simultaneously bringing in more tax revenue from large corporations and cutting the unfair advantages those corporations have.
If they focus on revenue, on government efficiency, on small businesses, on moderating the spending of new social initiatives rather than trying to roll back old ones, on promoting domestic growth instead of growth sent overseas, while abandoning their anti-science, anti-equality, anti-democratic wingnuts, they might have a party which resonates with enough of the electorate to have a shot in future elections.
I'm not holding my breath. I'm not sure they've hit rock bottom yet. They may not, until they start losing midterms the way they lost in '08 and last night.
This is a succinct summation of all things wrong with the GOP today.
It's bad enough that they are a post-truth party now, but the worse thing is that policy is reflexive as much as it is expressive. They don't deal in truths, and they refuse to believe them.
That's a hard policy to maintain if you have any desire to win national office.
Should the party ask Mitch McConnell to step down as Senate Minority Leader?
Note: this is not the same question as, "Do you think McConnell is good?"
I'd say no.
If they were primarily concerned with appearing moderate, then yes. But they aren't. And if they were, the Senators would probably end up with a nasty Portman or Blunt v DeMint or Paul internal fight.
GoslingLooking Up Soccer In Mongolia Right Now, ProbablyWatertown, WIRegistered Userregular
The GOP base knew going in that this was their last best chance. You heard all about 'if not now, when?' Well, their last best chance came and then they decided a few months out that the one thing the country really needed was a bizarre discussion on 'what is rape, really, when you get right down to it?' They had their chance and they blew it.
The question now is just how long and how many elections it takes them to remind themselves of that prediction, and how many of them take the Karl Rove route of trying to un-call Ohio. I don't think it'll happen entirely on its own. In addition to the demographics, the 2012 Senate map was supposed to be the hard one, where it was just a given that the Democrats would lose control, and they actually gained seats. The 2014 and 2016 maps aren't going to be nearly as friendly, whatever happens in the House. So that's gone to them for a while probably.
The thing keeping the GOP from centering is that the people that could center them have already been driven out of the party. The Tea Party, even though they got a sharp rebuke last night, still runs the GOP. And going by the ancient GOP doctrine of It's Your Turn, the 2016 nominee is likely to be either Paul Ryan (reigning VP nominee) or Rick Santorum (reigning runner-up). Which will make the 2016 presidential election fairly ugly for them. Their redemption is at this point largely out of their control. I think it's going to come whenever the Democratic big tent eventually collapses- and sooner or later, something will happen where it will; it always eventually does- and some disgruntled demographic heads to the GOP and imposes change upon them that way.
I have a new soccer blog The Minnow Tank. Reading it psychically kicks Sepp Blatter in the bean bag.
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mojojoeoA block off the park, living the dream.Registered Userregular
They just need to tell the church types straight up that all they can be given by the party is religious freedom. The party can no longer win like this period. You can freely practice your religion and say all the crazy shit you want there... but it cant be in the libraries/schools/legislation.
The left coast; the north east- they will never ever vote the churchies' way on abortion and gay marriage and church based legislation. Nearly 99% of my republican friends are socially liberal republicans- the younger folks - the party will never win like that anymore; women will not vote that way and people are straight turned off by them talking about "rape babies".
I know tons of folks who said they would not vote for obama again based on his first 4 years.... so they just didnt vote as they could not get behind the abortion/gay marriage stuff.
They have to focus on smaller gov and the fiscal things- and you know.... actually do those things vs just talk about them.
I feel pretty sure that won't happen and this will only get worse. They will blame Romney who tap danced to the far right vs stayed the moderate he was.
It will get worse before it gets better
Chief Wiggum: "Ladies, please. All our founding fathers, astronauts, and World Series heroes have been either drunk or on cocaine."
realize that the Democrats don't even run on a platform of policies we know work, they just run on what works electorally and let their establishment clout within the party, upon their base, force policies through. You want safety-net free-market policies? Don't you remember triangulation and Giant Sucking Sounds and all that noise? These might have been broadly popular policies without actually being prominent parts of their platform. The Democrats never actually loudly denounced the Old Ways, no matter how enjoyable this might have been for Reaganite victors.
and the Republicans right now are even more incapable of reining in their base than the traditionally disunited post-New-Deal Democrat camp. so why would the establishment try to reassert itself now, it certainly didn't hesitate to organize tea parties after 2008. It's just that they then lost control of the teaper groups.
ronya on
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GnomeTankWhat the what?Portland, OregonRegistered Userregular
From what I was hearing from conservative pundits last night, they plan to double down on their ultra conservative line. If that's the case, they will get trounced in 2016 and then perhaps wake up to the reality of the situation.
I think it's going to take one more very clear defeat to wake the GOP up. It may actually happen as early as 2014, as there are quite a few house teapers up for reelection that year. If the obstructionism continues, I think the country has shown they are willing to throw Tea Party candidates out on their butts.
From what I was hearing from conservative pundits last night, they plan to double down on their ultra conservative line. If that's the case, they will get trounced in 2016 and then perhaps wake up to the reality of the situation.
I think it's going to take one more very clear defeat to wake the GOP up. It may actually happen as early as 2014, as there are quite a few house teapers up for reelection that year. If the obstructionism continues, I think the country has shown they are willing to throw Tea Party candidates out on their butts.
For that to happen in '14, the Democrats will need to start sending a stronger message about how much midterm elections matter, and start employing an Obama-style ground game to get out the vote in support of congressional candidates. I don't know if the majority of the country is involved enough yet to do that, although the increase in enthusiasm among Democrat demographics is encouraging.
My zombie survival life simulator They Don't Sleep is out now on Steam if you want to check it out.
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mojojoeoA block off the park, living the dream.Registered Userregular
From what I was hearing from conservative pundits last night, they plan to double down on their ultra conservative line. If that's the case, they will get trounced in 2016 and then perhaps wake up to the reality of the situation.
I think it's going to take one more very clear defeat to wake the GOP up. It may actually happen as early as 2014, as there are quite a few house teapers up for reelection that year. If the obstructionism continues, I think the country has shown they are willing to throw Tea Party candidates out on their butts.
This election is 50/50 popular vote... but in the 10 states that matter we lost 9 of 10. Thats a beat down.
But I bet you are 100% right. they wont react till after another solid loss.
Chief Wiggum: "Ladies, please. All our founding fathers, astronauts, and World Series heroes have been either drunk or on cocaine."
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AtomikaLive fast and get fucked or whateverRegistered Userregular
They can't do fiscal because they can't touch SS/Medicare and they can't raise taxes.
Their choice is what to fiddle while Rome burns.
But oh lord how they tried with Romney. Remember, he was going to create 12 million new jobs by cutting taxes and raising defense spending while getting rid of Medicare?
They can't do fiscal because they can't touch SS/Medicare and they can't raise taxes.
Their choice is what to fiddle while Rome burns.
But oh lord how they tried with Romney. Remember, he was going to create 12 million new jobs by cutting taxes and raising defense spending while getting rid of Medicare?
voters didn't actually punish Romney for this, nor do they reward numeracy, so...
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AtomikaLive fast and get fucked or whateverRegistered Userregular
They can't do fiscal because they can't touch SS/Medicare and they can't raise taxes.
Their choice is what to fiddle while Rome burns.
But oh lord how they tried with Romney. Remember, he was going to create 12 million new jobs by cutting taxes and raising defense spending while getting rid of Medicare?
voters didn't actually punish Romney for this, nor do they reward numeracy, so...
I don't think you can say with certainty that Romney's stark aversion to details and arithmetic didn't influence some of the fencesitters.
I'm a GOP voter myself, so it's not like I wasn't looking for reasons to give Romney a legitimate shot.
Honestly, I think the biggest reform the Republican party should endorse is immigration reform. Change your stance on immigration and I think that a lot of votes will open up.
From what I was hearing from conservative pundits last night, they plan to double down on their ultra conservative line. If that's the case, they will get trounced in 2016 and then perhaps wake up to the reality of the situation.
I think it's going to take one more very clear defeat to wake the GOP up. It may actually happen as early as 2014, as there are quite a few house teapers up for reelection that year. If the obstructionism continues, I think the country has shown they are willing to throw Tea Party candidates out on their butts.
This election is 50/50 popular vote... but in the 10 states that matter we lost 9 of 10. Thats a beat down.
But I bet you are 100% right. they wont react till after another solid loss.
Talking about popular vote totals in our system is meaningless. All the big liberal states are told from the word go their vote for president doesn't matter. You don't think in a pure popular vote system more of those people would turnout to the polls?
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AManFromEarthLet's get to twerk!The King in the SwampRegistered Userregular
Ronya, I really don't know where you're coming from. Romney lost because of his quantum state and the positions he took and doubled down on.
From what I was hearing from conservative pundits last night, they plan to double down on their ultra conservative line. If that's the case, they will get trounced in 2016 and then perhaps wake up to the reality of the situation.
I think it's going to take one more very clear defeat to wake the GOP up. It may actually happen as early as 2014, as there are quite a few house teapers up for reelection that year. If the obstructionism continues, I think the country has shown they are willing to throw Tea Party candidates out on their butts.
This election is 50/50 popular vote... but in the 10 states that matter we lost 9 of 10. Thats a beat down.
But I bet you are 100% right. they wont react till after another solid loss.
Talking about popular vote totals in our system is meaningless. All the big liberal states are told from the word go their vote for president doesn't matter. You don't think in a pure popular vote system more of those people would turnout to the polls?
It would be interesting to see what would happen if the popular vote mattered. My guess is that my state wouldn't change, but some might.
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GnomeTankWhat the what?Portland, OregonRegistered Userregular
Also, support Puerto Rico becoming a state. That would go a long way among that voting block.
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infighting right now would cost them the House in 2014 needlessly
Agreed. "Fiscal responsibility" has to be shown as math on paper, not:
1 - Cut taxes and entitlements
2 - Increase defense spending
3 - (citation needed)
4 - Economic prosperity!
I question the energy of the base against an administration that can't be voted out, especially if there's no other major divisive legislation like the ACA to rally around.
If 2014 rolls around and the economy/employment keeps heading the same way, I struggle to see what the GOP will come up with. I mean, it'll be something, I'm sure, but I've got no idea right now.
Listen, why you got to be all factual and stuff.
This same thought had occurred to me as well. I'm not positive they can just keep playing the same tune. At a certain point the faithful R's who always show up are going to get disheartened or purity test their candidates beyond even what an off year electorate will tolerate.
easy enough to find at least one scandal in two years, I suspect
pot and gay marriage are forcing federal decisions now, I note, as is puerto rico
Seriously. It may sound crazy, but I think you can actually make a rational conservative argument that the main problem with Obamacare is that it primarily just exacerbated existing problems and didn't do nearly enough to improve or fix anything. I'm not saying the answer is necessarily UHC, that might be hard to sell as a conservative platform. I think a more free-market/safety-net program with strong regulation and incentive towards preventative, universal care would also be mounds better for everyone than what we have now. But yeah, so would UHC.
You build a new platform on that, and you'd not only have the R vote, but you'd take a lot of moderates and Democrats.
That said, that's not going to happen, as the South+Texas are currently running the show, and they basically have nothing in common with the coastal west and northeast.
And these are all issues in which the national zeitgeist is going away from the GOP.
The two take aways from the president's speech last night should be 1.) A warning to liberals abotu getting "wide eyed" and complacent (for 2014) and 2.) A dare to Republicans to keep fucking that chickend (again, for 2014).
It would be a mistake to think that the administration hasn't learned from the last four years.
I can see the gay marriage thing rousing up the fundie base, but I don't see pot and Puerto Rico doing that at all. Plus, the gay marriage thing might be pretty tired by then. It passed in a few more states last night and Obama already voiced his support for gay rights over a year ago.
(2) they really can't change course on fiscal here, given their twin tent groups of retirees who want benefits and tax revolters who want less taxes. There's just no way to reconcile these outlooks.
Should the party ask Mitch McConnell to step down as Senate Minority Leader?
Note: this is not the same question as, "Do you think McConnell is good?"
That's not going to be the knife fight. The knife fight is the house leadership, especially after the sequestration talks. Will Boehner come out alive? Or will Cantor end up wearing his skull for a hat?
well
baiting the republicans into arming the fundies too much so that they can't steer the ship in 2016 is also liable to work out well for the Democrats
orthodox US political science once took it as given that the Presidency would be Democrat and House Republican, with the Senate toss-up, due to the Solid South. this only changed relatively recently. but it would not be new for demographic factors to party-lock branches of the government
The second thing I want to see is them making a complete 180 on suppressing the vote and attempting to rig elections by manipulating voting law. Their party has become broadly associated with these things, and while singular instances would not necessarily reflect on the GOP as a whole, when you look at the totality of what they attempted to do this year it becomes too much to ignore. A party which wants to rig elections is no better than the corrupt communist bogeymen it decries. Failure does not excuse the attempt. The GOP must acknowledge that it lives in a democracy and that it does not get to choose who votes in order to seize power. When they do take such actions, it becomes appropriate to ask the otherwise-sensationalistic question: Why do you hate democracy?
Thirdly, they need to realize that the demographics of the country no longer support their racism or brutal immigration policies. I think this will be the easiest one for them to agree to do, after looking at the manner in which they lost this election, but let's start seeing them actually reject the racist assholes and replace them with reasonable individuals.
Finally, if they want to be the "party of fiscal responsibility", fine. Start demonstrating it by paying attention to what economists actually say about economy. You can't reduce the deficit by crashing the economy with ridiculous austerity measures. I'm fine with the talk about closing certain loopholes in our tax code, especially corporate loopholes. But they also need to abandon the foolish idea that lowering tax rates on the wealthy is creating jobs. The country is waking up to the fact that it's bullshit.
The GOP has long pretended in rhetoric that its focus is to help small businesses. They need to start doing this not just in rhetoric, but in fact, by pursuing tax policies which lopsidedly aid true small businesses in service and manufacturing while simultaneously bringing in more tax revenue from large corporations and cutting the unfair advantages those corporations have.
If they focus on revenue, on government efficiency, on small businesses, on moderating the spending of new social initiatives rather than trying to roll back old ones, on promoting domestic growth instead of growth sent overseas, while abandoning their anti-science, anti-equality, anti-democratic wingnuts, they might have a party which resonates with enough of the electorate to have a shot in future elections.
I'm not holding my breath. I'm not sure they've hit rock bottom yet. They may not, until they start losing midterms the way they lost in '08 and last night.
Currently the narrative of the conservative world is set by Fox News more than any other one thing, and Fox News so far appears bound and determined not to learn a single lesson from this result.
Fifty-three percent of the country still (correctly) blames Bush and his policies for our economic problems. His brother isn't going to be able to get past that.
QEDMF xbl: PantsB G+
(they're not actually going to do any of those things, even if they manage to reverse course electorally)
The white male electorate is effectively dead as a winning political force. In the 67 years between FDR and Clinton, the white electorate only lost around 9 percentage points of strength. In the 16 years between Clinton and Obama, they lost 13 points. It's only projected to go down another 2-3 points by 2016.
This country is becoming more female and more brown by the minute. Republicans will either adapt to that, or they will become a permanent minority party...which would be bad. Our system works best when we have a strong, sane, opposition party. Even if we don't agree with every one of their ideals, it's an important check and balance in our political system. The problem is we don't have as sane or strong opposition party right now.
This is a succinct summation of all things wrong with the GOP today.
It's bad enough that they are a post-truth party now, but the worse thing is that policy is reflexive as much as it is expressive. They don't deal in truths, and they refuse to believe them.
That's a hard policy to maintain if you have any desire to win national office.
I'd say no.
If they were primarily concerned with appearing moderate, then yes. But they aren't. And if they were, the Senators would probably end up with a nasty Portman or Blunt v DeMint or Paul internal fight.
QEDMF xbl: PantsB G+
The question now is just how long and how many elections it takes them to remind themselves of that prediction, and how many of them take the Karl Rove route of trying to un-call Ohio. I don't think it'll happen entirely on its own. In addition to the demographics, the 2012 Senate map was supposed to be the hard one, where it was just a given that the Democrats would lose control, and they actually gained seats. The 2014 and 2016 maps aren't going to be nearly as friendly, whatever happens in the House. So that's gone to them for a while probably.
The thing keeping the GOP from centering is that the people that could center them have already been driven out of the party. The Tea Party, even though they got a sharp rebuke last night, still runs the GOP. And going by the ancient GOP doctrine of It's Your Turn, the 2016 nominee is likely to be either Paul Ryan (reigning VP nominee) or Rick Santorum (reigning runner-up). Which will make the 2016 presidential election fairly ugly for them. Their redemption is at this point largely out of their control. I think it's going to come whenever the Democratic big tent eventually collapses- and sooner or later, something will happen where it will; it always eventually does- and some disgruntled demographic heads to the GOP and imposes change upon them that way.
The left coast; the north east- they will never ever vote the churchies' way on abortion and gay marriage and church based legislation. Nearly 99% of my republican friends are socially liberal republicans- the younger folks - the party will never win like that anymore; women will not vote that way and people are straight turned off by them talking about "rape babies".
I know tons of folks who said they would not vote for obama again based on his first 4 years.... so they just didnt vote as they could not get behind the abortion/gay marriage stuff.
They have to focus on smaller gov and the fiscal things- and you know.... actually do those things vs just talk about them.
I feel pretty sure that won't happen and this will only get worse. They will blame Romney who tap danced to the far right vs stayed the moderate he was.
It will get worse before it gets better
and the Republicans right now are even more incapable of reining in their base than the traditionally disunited post-New-Deal Democrat camp. so why would the establishment try to reassert itself now, it certainly didn't hesitate to organize tea parties after 2008. It's just that they then lost control of the teaper groups.
I think it's going to take one more very clear defeat to wake the GOP up. It may actually happen as early as 2014, as there are quite a few house teapers up for reelection that year. If the obstructionism continues, I think the country has shown they are willing to throw Tea Party candidates out on their butts.
Their choice is what to fiddle while Rome burns.
For that to happen in '14, the Democrats will need to start sending a stronger message about how much midterm elections matter, and start employing an Obama-style ground game to get out the vote in support of congressional candidates. I don't know if the majority of the country is involved enough yet to do that, although the increase in enthusiasm among Democrat demographics is encouraging.
This election is 50/50 popular vote... but in the 10 states that matter we lost 9 of 10. Thats a beat down.
But I bet you are 100% right. they wont react till after another solid loss.
But oh lord how they tried with Romney. Remember, he was going to create 12 million new jobs by cutting taxes and raising defense spending while getting rid of Medicare?
voters didn't actually punish Romney for this, nor do they reward numeracy, so...
I don't think you can say with certainty that Romney's stark aversion to details and arithmetic didn't influence some of the fencesitters.
I'm a GOP voter myself, so it's not like I wasn't looking for reasons to give Romney a legitimate shot.
Talking about popular vote totals in our system is meaningless. All the big liberal states are told from the word go their vote for president doesn't matter. You don't think in a pure popular vote system more of those people would turnout to the polls?
Voters very much did punish him for his shit.
It would be interesting to see what would happen if the popular vote mattered. My guess is that my state wouldn't change, but some might.
I think that would clinch some states honestly. I don't see it happening, but it could make a huge difference.