The only reason the house managed to pass the bill, WITH the further fucking over of the ACA, was because basically Ryan promised the Freedom Caucus nuts military and wall bills.
Well some are sick of having yet another CR and IIRC this fiscal year doesn't end till early fall and this would be CR #3 or #4. I'd agree there's probably a handful of idiots in the Senate GOP that either think a shut down helps them or that since their party has power, they should be allowed to fuck the poor over more.
Sounds to me though that Graham and Rounds are probably no votes. Graham isn't up this year for re-election. He doesn't have to worry about that until 2020. Rounds was elected last year. So both could decide they have little to lose by being no votes and can possible leverage for stuff they feel either better represents the interests of their voters or very likely a deal that better serves their interests. Also with the new pass at ACA, I'm wondering if that scared off Collins and Murkowski. I also would not be surprised if Cruz has expressed interest in another shutdown. I very much would not be surprised if there weren't the votes needed to hit 50, let alone 60 votes. As fucking short-sighted as McConnell is, he knows their message goes belly up if they can't hit 50 votes because the filibuster becomes irrelevant.
Though as others have said, these assholes could have used reconciliation for this, but it would have meant they couldn't loot the US to enrich themselves as much. Also if they did their damn jobs, they probably have the votes in both Chambers to make a Trump veto irrelevant. I'm sure the right-wing and oligarch propaganda joints will try really hard to pin this as being the democrats fault, but I think enough voters will remember come November that the GOP is to blame and they have no fucking excuses.
Murkowski has shown she's fine with picking at the edges of the ACA and Collins is willing to shut her eyes during the vote and go "They fucked it over when I wasn't looking!" I wouldn't count on them for anything.
The only reason the house managed to pass the bill, WITH the further fucking over of the ACA, was because basically Ryan promised the Freedom Caucus nuts military and wall bills.
Shows what suckers they are. They held out for House bills that are dead letter in the Senate.
Ugh if the Republicans succeed in blaming this on the Democratic party, I don't know.
(insert list of stupid nihilistic platitudes)
}
"Orkses never lose a battle. If we win we win, if we die we die fightin so it don't count. If we runs for it we don't die neither, cos we can come back for annuver go, see!".
Ugh if the Republicans succeed in blaming this on the Democratic party, I don't know.
(insert list of stupid nihilistic platitudes)
"Succeed" is a very wishy-washy term to use in this context. Succeed in the eyes of who? The nation? Their constituency? Their opponents? Because the answers for those are very different.
Ugh if the Republicans succeed in blaming this on the Democratic party, I don't know.
(insert list of stupid nihilistic platitudes)
"Succeed" is a very wishy-washy term to use in this context. Succeed in the eyes of who? The nation? Their constituency? Their opponents? Because the answers for those are very different.
I mean in an electoral sense - they defend their two house majority successfully in November.
Also in the narrative sense of "Democrats suck hahaha" in the media and public.
Jephery on
}
"Orkses never lose a battle. If we win we win, if we die we die fightin so it don't count. If we runs for it we don't die neither, cos we can come back for annuver go, see!".
Ugh if the Republicans succeed in blaming this on the Democratic party, I don't know.
(insert list of stupid nihilistic platitudes)
"Succeed" is a very wishy-washy term to use in this context. Succeed in the eyes of who? The nation? Their constituency? Their opponents? Because the answers for those are very different.
I mean in an electoral sense - they defend their two house majority successfully in November.
Also in the narrative sense of "Democrats suck hahaha."
That's a huge stretch to make to November but also outside of what we should be talking about.
I'm not, but looking at what we know, it's also helpful to try and get a guess on who might vote not and what could lead to that. If it was a simple matter of getting to 50 total (with votes from the entire chamber), I think McConnel would have let this go through because then he could rail against a democratic filibuster. He isn't which tells me that there must be enough GOP holdouts, that this isn't hitting 50, even if we add in 7 democrats voting yes. That means we have at least 8 republicans that have told their leaders they are currently a no, and not just maybe, but a no vote.
Rounds and Graham are likely two of that group. Gardner is likely the third because Colorado has a significant Latino and Hispanic makeup that he likely has concluded he needs DACA to pass in order to be viable, so that's three. Cruz is probably for this stupid shit because it's Cruz, so there's four. After that point, I can't think of any obvious options. I believe there is some other nutjob that tends to go along with Cruz's bullshit, that isn't Rand, 5. Maybe Rand, but he is easy to bribe. Maybe Flake and Corker, since both are retiring, they feel they are in a position to try and force something better. I'm not saying either Collins or Murkowski deserve to be in office, this are shitty republicans, but the ACA stuff gives them an easy out and that CR doesn't do much for their interests; especially, since it was hobbled together to appease the most radical wing of the party, that they aren't party to (keep in mind like every asshole republican in the Senate, the tax bill likely lined their pockets).
I think this is less about putting pressure on Democrats and trying to figure out how to get to 50 votes. Problem is, since the GOP refuses to work with the other party, anything they do to get one group is likely to alienate the other group.
But it's because the majority were split on whether Trump or Republicans were to blame. The percent that would blame Democrats also happens to be almost exactly where Trump's approval rating is.
But it's because the majority were split on whether Trump or Republicans were to blame. The percent that would blame Democrats also happens to be almost exactly where Trump's approval rating is.
That is a bad poll question.
Self-righteousness is incompatible with coalition building.
The House approved a short-term spending bill Thursday to avoid a government shutdown, sending the measure to the Senate where Democrats said they have enough votes to block its passage.
House Republican leaders prevailed in lobbying the conservative House Freedom Caucus and defense hawks who demanded more money for the military in exchange for their votes.The bill passed 230-197.
[...] The short-term spending bill would keep the government open through Feb. 16 while extending the Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP) for six years and rolling back several taxes in the Affordable Care Act. It does not include a solution for “dreamers,” the undocumented immigrants brought to the United States as children, as Democrats have demanded.
The cynicism of refusing to extend CHIP and then trying to use it as a blackmail tool in this fight should be astonishing, but it's not.
Yep. At the same time... I'm okay with this language. 6 years of CHIP for less than a month CR until it comes around again? And losing some minor revenue generators that don't really matter? Sure.
The problem with who blames who for the shutdown is that there is no guarantee it will last up to the election. Plus it's like the joke about wrestling with a pig: punchline, the pig (read GOP) likes it. It seems pretty obvious to me that the Dems take the House in November but don't take the Senate. Is a shutdown going to change that analysis? That said, I think we are rapidly approaching the point where neither side can compromise and this isn't a good thing. It will likely cause short term pain for people who depend on government services and have little impact on Dem chances in November.
“Reject your sense of injury and the injury itself disappears.”
― Marcus Aurelius
I'd be curious to see the math on how long we'd need to go on a chain CR before the money ends up not being enough to fund the things that should be funded. Obviously, there is a huge issue when things change on the ground and you have a scenario where some program really should get increased funding and others should be cut because there isn't a really need to keeping their funding at current levels, if at all. I'm pretty sure the current CR that ends at midnight, is keeping funding levels that were established at least a year ago (I want to say the democrats managed to force the GOP to accept a decent budget setup around this time of year).
I'm on the fence if what we have now is worth accepting or not. On one hand, it takes holding CHIP hostage away from the GOP for six years. On the other hand, seems pretty fucking stupid that it gives the freedom caucus concessions they shouldn't have. Shows how incompetent Ryan and McConnell are. Easiest way to deal with those fuckers is not giving them wins, when there is no need. I'm also concerned this might be the new GOP strategy going til the end of the year. Wait until the last minute and pass a CR that has something the GOP can't really afford to stonewall for years (say CHIP), but then chip away at stuff they don't like, that doesn't make them look super shitty to the uninformed.
I think I'd rather see a mostly clean CR that adds a few days on. I say mostly clean because CHIP should be passed. Make the new one last about a week and then sent Trump a DACA bill. Like seriously, send this fucker a bipartisan bill, see what he does. Take some god damn agency over being an equal branch to the executive branch. If he vetoes, then see if you can scrounge up the votes to override his bullshit. If you can't figure out what needs to be done to make it happen, if it's even possible in this current political environment. GOP is filled with fools if they don't think this shit won't bite them in the ass this November. Sure their base might love it, but everyone that isn't in the cult of Trump, Tea Party idiocy or Randian Wankfest circle, is getting fucking sick of this shit.
MDMA represents implants, joints, pacemakers, and all sorts of other shit and they are cutthroat in their negotiations, and can be because their mostly old audience votes consistently.
Incredible they can spend this much influencing government but most of them can't get a decent infosec program going to save their (client's) lives.
The problem with who blames who for the shutdown is that there is no guarantee it will last up to the election. Plus it's like the joke about wrestling with a pig: punchline, the pig (read GOP) likes it. It seems pretty obvious to me that the Dems take the House in November but don't take the Senate. Is a shutdown going to change that analysis? That said, I think we are rapidly approaching the point where neither side can compromise and this isn't a good thing. It will likely cause short term pain for people who depend on government services and have little impact on Dem chances in November.
To be honest, I think we passed that months ago. Which isn't new in American politics, it's just worse this time and people have forgotten how in the recent past how untrustworthy the party as a whole is RE: Obama. That's what makes passing important bills like the budget terrifying, as so much rides on the Dems getting it right - as if such a thing were possible.
Harry Dresden on
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MayabirdPecking at the keyboardRegistered Userregular
MDMA represents implants, joints, pacemakers, and all sorts of other shit and they are cutthroat in their negotiations, and can be because their mostly old audience votes consistently.
What we've been seeing is that the lobbies aren't actually that strong, not enough to actually sway legislation when push finally comes to shove. AARP was supposed to be a kingmaker and they were broken easily and became a political nonentity within six months. They're all paper tigers. Given the choice between "literally saving my own life" and "hatin' those people" their constituents pick the latter, which is how we got into this situation in the first place. People don't care about lobbies and rational interests, just their mindless burning hatred and irrational desires to lash out. It doesn't matter that the leopards will eat their faces first.
This might be a pretty long shutdown, given how far apart the parties are today. Like 2013 shutdown long.
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AthenorBattle Hardened OptimistThe Skies of HiigaraRegistered Userregular
Question:
NPR reports that Pence is starting an overseas trip this afternoon. How does that affect things with the funding debate? Is there any chance it comes down to a 50/50 tie?
NPR reports that Pence is starting an overseas trip this afternoon. How does that affect things with the funding debate? Is there any chance it comes down to a 50/50 tie?
I doubt it comes down to a tie since they kind of need 60 votes. More interesting is that Trump is heading to Mar A Lago, so there's a pretty good chance that he'll be playing golf during a shutdown because that's always good optics.
NPR reports that Pence is starting an overseas trip this afternoon. How does that affect things with the funding debate? Is there any chance it comes down to a 50/50 tie?
Unlikely it comes to that. The idea is the Dems would use the filibuster, which takes 60 votes.
If it actually came to a vote, you have McCain out for cancer treatment, so only 50 R Senators available.
That means you would need one Democrat to vote yes for every Republican that votes no just to reach 50.
NPR reports that Pence is starting an overseas trip this afternoon. How does that affect things with the funding debate? Is there any chance it comes down to a 50/50 tie?
They need a closure vote so they need 60. I suppose the actual vote could end up 50-50 but I do not know who the 10 senators who would vote for closure but not the bill would be.
So probably pretty safe all in all.
Edit: Beat'd hard.
Other note though: McConnell at least doesn't seem to be looking to push this through so much as blaming the D's for it.
NPR reports that Pence is starting an overseas trip this afternoon. How does that affect things with the funding debate? Is there any chance it comes down to a 50/50 tie?
I doubt it comes down to a tie since they kind of need 60 votes. More interesting is that Trump is heading to Mar A Lago, so there's a pretty good chance that he'll be playing golf during a shutdown because that's always good optics.
They just announced that he won't be going to Florida until a bill passes. Oddly enough, that might make him put pressure on lawmakers to accept a DACA deal.
He will be missing a $100k per couple fundraiser at Mar-a-Lago otherwise.
BeNarwhalThe Work Left UnfinishedRegistered Userregular
So as an ignorant Canadian who somewhat intentionally avoids the news nowadays, I only learned of the possibility of this shutdown earlier this morning.
And then I popped on over to CNN.com and the headline just read "WASHINGTON IS BROKEN" and I figure I'm pretty much caught up on the subject now.
NPR reports that Pence is starting an overseas trip this afternoon. How does that affect things with the funding debate? Is there any chance it comes down to a 50/50 tie?
I doubt it comes down to a tie since they kind of need 60 votes. More interesting is that Trump is heading to Mar A Lago, so there's a pretty good chance that he'll be playing golf during a shutdown because that's always good optics.
They just announced that he won't be going to Florida until a bill passes. Oddly enough, that might make him put pressure on lawmakers to accept a DACA deal.
He will be missing a $100k per couple fundraiser at Mar-a-Lago otherwise.
He'll spend a bit longer there, get bored and go to Florida asap then blame the Dems when things don't get moving. Patience and hard work are not Trump's strong suits.
This might be a pretty long shutdown, given how far apart the parties are today. Like 2013 shutdown long.
It all depends on what President Trump Stephen Miller will accept and sign. Congress could very likely come to a compromise that the President won't support.
So as an ignorant Canadian who somewhat intentionally avoids the news nowadays, I only learned of the possibility of this shutdown earlier this morning.
And then I popped on over to CNN.com and the headline just read "WASHINGTON IS BROKEN" and I figure I'm pretty much caught up on the subject now.
Yeah you pretty much got all the important information for now
I honestly would not be surprised if a shutdown happens entirely by accident. Like, Trump just doesn't remember to sign a CR before midnight level of accident.
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Mx. QuillI now prefer "Myr. Quill", actually...{They/Them}Registered Userregular
I'm really getting annoyed with the talk of "Whose to blame for the shutdown" going around that I'm seeing that no one seems to remember that the only reason we're even in this position in the first place is because Trump abruptly ended DACA without thinking, creating a deadline.
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I ZimbraWorst song, played on ugliest guitarRegistered Userregular
I'm really getting annoyed with the talk of "Whose to blame for the shutdown" going around that I'm seeing that no one seems to remember that the only reason we're even in this position in the first place is because Trump abruptly ended DACA without thinking, creating a deadline.
Also dicking around with CHIP funding. Can't forget about that.
Team Trump seem to be willing to eat the shutdown since federal workers vote Dem so screw them. From that point of view, the deal where Trump gets The Wall and some other stuff in exchange of DACA is the one that makes sense, specially because the line is "Dems want to shut down the goverment over DACA!". So, just gotta wait until Dems blink first.
Yeah and there was a bi-partisan deal that Trump blew up. And now McConnel can’t even get to 50 votes as a result, and I don’t blame them for holding out for a bipartisan deal. This is 99% on the president, who both created and is prolonging this crisis.
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-Indiana Solo, runner of blades
The only reason the house managed to pass the bill, WITH the further fucking over of the ACA, was because basically Ryan promised the Freedom Caucus nuts military and wall bills.
Sounds to me though that Graham and Rounds are probably no votes. Graham isn't up this year for re-election. He doesn't have to worry about that until 2020. Rounds was elected last year. So both could decide they have little to lose by being no votes and can possible leverage for stuff they feel either better represents the interests of their voters or very likely a deal that better serves their interests. Also with the new pass at ACA, I'm wondering if that scared off Collins and Murkowski. I also would not be surprised if Cruz has expressed interest in another shutdown. I very much would not be surprised if there weren't the votes needed to hit 50, let alone 60 votes. As fucking short-sighted as McConnell is, he knows their message goes belly up if they can't hit 50 votes because the filibuster becomes irrelevant.
Though as others have said, these assholes could have used reconciliation for this, but it would have meant they couldn't loot the US to enrich themselves as much. Also if they did their damn jobs, they probably have the votes in both Chambers to make a Trump veto irrelevant. I'm sure the right-wing and oligarch propaganda joints will try really hard to pin this as being the democrats fault, but I think enough voters will remember come November that the GOP is to blame and they have no fucking excuses.
battletag: Millin#1360
Nice chart to figure out how honest a news source is.
Shows what suckers they are. They held out for House bills that are dead letter in the Senate.
(insert list of stupid nihilistic platitudes)
"Orkses never lose a battle. If we win we win, if we die we die fightin so it don't count. If we runs for it we don't die neither, cos we can come back for annuver go, see!".
We're in a real weird place where Chris Cilizza is one of your smarter pundits this week. Punditry: always bad.
I mean in an electoral sense - they defend their two house majority successfully in November.
Also in the narrative sense of "Democrats suck hahaha" in the media and public.
"Orkses never lose a battle. If we win we win, if we die we die fightin so it don't count. If we runs for it we don't die neither, cos we can come back for annuver go, see!".
For the first time, I am actually willing to give Flake credit. Yes, this is correct.
Rounds and Graham are likely two of that group. Gardner is likely the third because Colorado has a significant Latino and Hispanic makeup that he likely has concluded he needs DACA to pass in order to be viable, so that's three. Cruz is probably for this stupid shit because it's Cruz, so there's four. After that point, I can't think of any obvious options. I believe there is some other nutjob that tends to go along with Cruz's bullshit, that isn't Rand, 5. Maybe Rand, but he is easy to bribe. Maybe Flake and Corker, since both are retiring, they feel they are in a position to try and force something better. I'm not saying either Collins or Murkowski deserve to be in office, this are shitty republicans, but the ACA stuff gives them an easy out and that CR doesn't do much for their interests; especially, since it was hobbled together to appease the most radical wing of the party, that they aren't party to (keep in mind like every asshole republican in the Senate, the tax bill likely lined their pockets).
I think this is less about putting pressure on Democrats and trying to figure out how to get to 50 votes. Problem is, since the GOP refuses to work with the other party, anything they do to get one group is likely to alienate the other group.
battletag: Millin#1360
Nice chart to figure out how honest a news source is.
Good news!
Quinnipiac ran a poll asking who people'd blame if there was a shutdown just the other day.
Democrats won the plurality! (via Bloomberg reporter tweet)
But it's because the majority were split on whether Trump or Republicans were to blame. The percent that would blame Democrats also happens to be almost exactly where Trump's approval rating is.
That is a bad poll question.
Yep. At the same time... I'm okay with this language. 6 years of CHIP for less than a month CR until it comes around again? And losing some minor revenue generators that don't really matter? Sure.
― Marcus Aurelius
Path of Exile: themightypuck
I'm on the fence if what we have now is worth accepting or not. On one hand, it takes holding CHIP hostage away from the GOP for six years. On the other hand, seems pretty fucking stupid that it gives the freedom caucus concessions they shouldn't have. Shows how incompetent Ryan and McConnell are. Easiest way to deal with those fuckers is not giving them wins, when there is no need. I'm also concerned this might be the new GOP strategy going til the end of the year. Wait until the last minute and pass a CR that has something the GOP can't really afford to stonewall for years (say CHIP), but then chip away at stuff they don't like, that doesn't make them look super shitty to the uninformed.
I think I'd rather see a mostly clean CR that adds a few days on. I say mostly clean because CHIP should be passed. Make the new one last about a week and then sent Trump a DACA bill. Like seriously, send this fucker a bipartisan bill, see what he does. Take some god damn agency over being an equal branch to the executive branch. If he vetoes, then see if you can scrounge up the votes to override his bullshit. If you can't figure out what needs to be done to make it happen, if it's even possible in this current political environment. GOP is filled with fools if they don't think this shit won't bite them in the ass this November. Sure their base might love it, but everyone that isn't in the cult of Trump, Tea Party idiocy or Randian Wankfest circle, is getting fucking sick of this shit.
battletag: Millin#1360
Nice chart to figure out how honest a news source is.
Incredible they can spend this much influencing government but most of them can't get a decent infosec program going to save their (client's) lives.
To be honest, I think we passed that months ago. Which isn't new in American politics, it's just worse this time and people have forgotten how in the recent past how untrustworthy the party as a whole is RE: Obama. That's what makes passing important bills like the budget terrifying, as so much rides on the Dems getting it right - as if such a thing were possible.
What we've been seeing is that the lobbies aren't actually that strong, not enough to actually sway legislation when push finally comes to shove. AARP was supposed to be a kingmaker and they were broken easily and became a political nonentity within six months. They're all paper tigers. Given the choice between "literally saving my own life" and "hatin' those people" their constituents pick the latter, which is how we got into this situation in the first place. People don't care about lobbies and rational interests, just their mindless burning hatred and irrational desires to lash out. It doesn't matter that the leopards will eat their faces first.
NPR reports that Pence is starting an overseas trip this afternoon. How does that affect things with the funding debate? Is there any chance it comes down to a 50/50 tie?
I doubt it comes down to a tie since they kind of need 60 votes. More interesting is that Trump is heading to Mar A Lago, so there's a pretty good chance that he'll be playing golf during a shutdown because that's always good optics.
Unlikely it comes to that. The idea is the Dems would use the filibuster, which takes 60 votes.
If it actually came to a vote, you have McCain out for cancer treatment, so only 50 R Senators available.
That means you would need one Democrat to vote yes for every Republican that votes no just to reach 50.
They need a closure vote so they need 60. I suppose the actual vote could end up 50-50 but I do not know who the 10 senators who would vote for closure but not the bill would be.
So probably pretty safe all in all.
Edit: Beat'd hard.
Other note though: McConnell at least doesn't seem to be looking to push this through so much as blaming the D's for it.
They just announced that he won't be going to Florida until a bill passes. Oddly enough, that might make him put pressure on lawmakers to accept a DACA deal.
He will be missing a $100k per couple fundraiser at Mar-a-Lago otherwise.
2018 you were supposed to be better than 2017. Stop it!
And then I popped on over to CNN.com and the headline just read "WASHINGTON IS BROKEN" and I figure I'm pretty much caught up on the subject now.
He'll spend a bit longer there, get bored and go to Florida asap then blame the Dems when things don't get moving. Patience and hard work are not Trump's strong suits.
thats madness
It all depends on what President Trump Stephen Miller will accept and sign. Congress could very likely come to a compromise that the President won't support.
Yeah you pretty much got all the important information for now
I wouldn't put it past Trump to have the state of mind that "if the government shuts down, I'm on vacation, right?"
Also dicking around with CHIP funding. Can't forget about that.