Both Stephen King and his son Joe Hill have been making public videos to vote against Collins. Not that I think they'll move the needle, but I find it funny that it needs to happen.
I thought that was going to be behind closed doors, so likely the public isn't going to learn anything from it.
Yeah. But the day Eric Trump is behind closed doors talking about potential real estate fraud I Expect the media to see that as a fun story to focus on and tie these returns to
there’s a reason the gop wanted hunter in to testify, it’s bad optics to even have that happening even if nothing comes out of it
Both Stephen King and his son Joe Hill have been making public videos to vote against Collins. Not that I think they'll move the needle, but I find it funny that it needs to happen.
Stephen King has been a VERY vocal anti-Trump and Collins celebrity for a long time now.
The celebrity that I enjoyed fucking GOING OFF on twitter (after having a generally crafted "safe" persona) was Jim Gaffigan, after the RNC. Including saying "fuck" repeatedly.
Speaking of which, he retweeted this, which is 100% the right angle to go on the hair deduction:
I feel like what's being ignored in the discussion of why pull out of Ohio is that election laws don't matter - you KNOW they're coordinating with PACs.
If a bunch of PACs said "hey, we got this" and are dumping a ton in Ohio, what's the functional difference?
also it doesn't matter if you "spend in Ohio" when you're spending on targeted ads to Ohioans through social media.
This whole thing about who's spending where is land line polling all over again. It matters to the people who don't understand how targeted internet ads in 2020 work.
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AbsalonLands of Always WinterRegistered Userregular
Both Stephen King and his son Joe Hill have been making public videos to vote against Collins. Not that I think they'll move the needle, but I find it funny that it needs to happen.
Stephen King has been a VERY vocal anti-Trump and Collins celebrity for a long time now.
The celebrity that I enjoyed fucking GOING OFF on twitter (after having a generally crafted "safe" persona) was Jim Gaffigan, after the RNC. Including saying "fuck" repeatedly.
Speaking of which, he retweeted this, which is 100% the right angle to go on the hair deduction:
I think it always bears mention that the allowable amount he could deduct for said hair styling was zero. The amount would be absurd and worthy of mockery if it was legal, but it's even more so given that it's not.
I want to know who prepared his taxes, as well, because you know he didn't do this himself.
the results were within the margin of error, the swing just happened to be in Trump's favor in states where that wasn't expected
i really wish the bad polling narrative would die in a fire
This is not me attacking the integrity of the 2016 polling.
I'm well aware of the accuracy of the polling, and what actually ended up happening in the end.
But at this point Biden could be leading by 20 points in every state and I will still refuse to believe he's going to win until he's actually inaugurated, because 'hope for the best, plan for the worst' is kind of my default now.
I have to assume it's a good thing that the best counter drop they had to the tax story is that Project Veritas fake nothing about Omar.
Access Hollywood got blunted by the DNC email hack release, but other than going on about drug testing it seems like this tax story is just...unopposed? No real distraction or counternarrative.
That means they are either holding back an oppo dump for a potentially even bigger story that is going to break, or they got nothing.
On the issue of Super PACs stepping in to fill the void left by the Trump campaign. The question is, can they effectively fill the gap that exists. IIRC actual campaigns end up spending less for the same ad buys than Super PACs. So the issue with Super PACs, is that even if they step up, if they do have to spend more on buying the same ad stuff, then they need to have more money in order to make up for any gaps. I'm pretty sure that they are a less efficient way to advertise. Yes, they can get unlimited money and are absolute bullshit, but that advantage is blunted if they cost more to run. I also want to say, that a number of typical conservative donors have been reluctant to chip in any money to get Trump re-elected.
i don't really know that home state advantage matters all that much anymore
i mean trump is from new york
Home state just means they know you better, so you get higher name recognition, a better understanding of your general politics, and it makes it easier to use the "I know what you need better than the other guy" pitch.
By all accounts, the better you know Trump, the less you like him and think he should be President, and he has no politics to speak of beyond "Vote for Trump" and he absolutely does not care about anybody other than himself. His pitch was always "Yay Trump, Trump is awesome, Trump is a Billionaire!"
Home state advantage swinging a state feels like a holdover from when politicians campaigned by throwing parties with free beer
Well usually the person running has held executive or federal office in their state meaning they were popular enough there to win an election and that shouldn't change for a presidential run.
I have to assume it's a good thing that the best counter drop they had to the tax story is that Project Veritas fake nothing about Omar.
In case anybody has any friends or family who are JUST ASKING QUESTIONS or whatever about this, since I did a quick lookup of what they were alleging and the like:
The thing that they're alleging is that Omar's campaign was helping people return ballots in the primary. That's totally legal though. As in Minnesota had a law specifically against it, it was overturned early this year by their courts, and then upheld on appeal. You can find it here. The thing that they documented is totally legal. The things they HAVEN'T documented, like bribing people to vote a particular way, are not documented in any way, and are just a dude in a dark room who is totally 100% not James O'Keefe saying that they were doing illegal stuff.
So in summation, they've thoroughly documented her staff doing something completely legal, and are using that to make baseless claims of illegality. You know, the usual.
I have to assume it's a good thing that the best counter drop they had to the tax story is that Project Veritas fake nothing about Omar.
In case anybody has any friends or family who are JUST ASKING QUESTIONS or whatever about this, since I did a quick lookup of what they were alleging and the like:
The thing that they're alleging is that Omar's campaign was helping people return ballots in the primary. That's totally legal though. As in Minnesota had a law specifically against it, it was overturned early this year by their courts, and then upheld on appeal. You can find it here. The thing that they documented is totally legal. The things they HAVEN'T documented, like bribing people to vote a particular way, are not documented in any way, and are just a dude in a dark room who is totally 100% not James O'Keefe saying that they were doing illegal stuff.
So in summation, they've thoroughly documented her staff doing something completely legal, and are using that to make baseless claims of illegality. You know, the usual.
Yeah its banking on people hearing about a law outlawing it, but not reading that particular law is in dispute and currently under court order not to be enforced.
So the usual project varitas bullshit.
I would like some money because these are artisanal nuggets of wisdom philistine.
I have to assume it's a good thing that the best counter drop they had to the tax story is that Project Veritas fake nothing about Omar.
Access Hollywood got blunted by the DNC email hack release, but other than going on about drug testing it seems like this tax story is just...unopposed? No real distraction or counternarrative.
That means they are either holding back an oppo dump for a potentially even bigger story that is going to break, or they got nothing.
Barr is going to have a statement or some such about an "investigation" before October is done with. I consider this a reasonable prediction.
My nihilist prediction is they are gearing up to arrest Biden. It's extremely unlikely, but I would not be surprised to find out Trump or a crony have mentioned it.
So in summation, they've thoroughly documented her staff doing something completely legal, and are using that to make baseless claims of illegality. You know, the usual.
There's also a video floating around of Devin Nunes on Fox News bluntly talking about how ballot harvesting, which is the same thing Ilhan is being accused of, is the only way Republicans can win in CA.
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Bloods EndBlade of TyshallePunch dimensionRegistered Userregular
I have to assume it's a good thing that the best counter drop they had to the tax story is that Project Veritas fake nothing about Omar.
Access Hollywood got blunted by the DNC email hack release, but other than going on about drug testing it seems like this tax story is just...unopposed? No real distraction or counternarrative.
That means they are either holding back an oppo dump for a potentially even bigger story that is going to break, or they got nothing.
Barr is going to have a statement or some such about an "investigation" before October is done with. I consider this a reasonable prediction.
My nihilist prediction is they are gearing up to arrest Biden. It's extremely unlikely, but I would not be surprised to find out Trump or a crony have mentioned it.
indicting Hunter is not out of the realm of the possible
I have to assume it's a good thing that the best counter drop they had to the tax story is that Project Veritas fake nothing about Omar.
Access Hollywood got blunted by the DNC email hack release, but other than going on about drug testing it seems like this tax story is just...unopposed? No real distraction or counternarrative.
That means they are either holding back an oppo dump for a potentially even bigger story that is going to break, or they got nothing.
Barr is going to have a statement or some such about an "investigation" before October is done with. I consider this a reasonable prediction.
My nihilist prediction is they are gearing up to arrest Biden. It's extremely unlikely, but I would not be surprised to find out Trump or a crony have mentioned it.
indicting Hunter is not out of the realm of the possible
I feel doing that is a rubicon Trump doesn't want. Like you normalize arresting your opponents kids you blow away the media's argument about the Biden going after the Trump family malfeaseance.
I would like some money because these are artisanal nuggets of wisdom philistine.
I feel doing that is a rubicon Trump doesn't want. Like you normalize arresting your opponents kids you blow away the media's argument about the Biden going after the Trump family malfeaseance.
I think he does want it - democrats and the media squeal about how awful it is that politically motivated prosecution is taking place etc etc, but the damage is done, politically.
And the secondary effects? If and when the prosecutors come for his own kids, he can then point to those same arguments, even if his own kids are clearly guilty. Helps him muddy the water rather well.
Ivanka, Eric, and Trump Jr.: "Wait, we're doing what now?"
(bonus points of course due to them actually likely having done illegal or at least questionably legal things, yes I'm hedging here, I'm sure there's plenty of evidence, but until they're convicted I'm following WAPO with boilerplate disclaimers before the pedants descend upon me)
First they came for the Muslims, and we said NOT TODAY, MOTHERFUCKER!
I have to assume it's a good thing that the best counter drop they had to the tax story is that Project Veritas fake nothing about Omar.
Access Hollywood got blunted by the DNC email hack release, but other than going on about drug testing it seems like this tax story is just...unopposed? No real distraction or counternarrative.
That means they are either holding back an oppo dump for a potentially even bigger story that is going to break, or they got nothing.
Barr is going to have a statement or some such about an "investigation" before October is done with. I consider this a reasonable prediction.
My nihilist prediction is they are gearing up to arrest Biden. It's extremely unlikely, but I would not be surprised to find out Trump or a crony have mentioned it.
indicting Hunter is not out of the realm of the possible
I feel doing that is a rubicon Trump doesn't want. Like you normalize arresting your opponents kids you blow away the media's argument about the Biden going after the Trump family malfeaseance.
I have to assume it's a good thing that the best counter drop they had to the tax story is that Project Veritas fake nothing about Omar.
Access Hollywood got blunted by the DNC email hack release, but other than going on about drug testing it seems like this tax story is just...unopposed? No real distraction or counternarrative.
That means they are either holding back an oppo dump for a potentially even bigger story that is going to break, or they got nothing.
Barr is going to have a statement or some such about an "investigation" before October is done with. I consider this a reasonable prediction.
My nihilist prediction is they are gearing up to arrest Biden. It's extremely unlikely, but I would not be surprised to find out Trump or a crony have mentioned it.
indicting Hunter is not out of the realm of the possible
I feel doing that is a rubicon Trump doesn't want. Like you normalize arresting your opponents kids you blow away the media's argument about the Biden going after the Trump family malfeaseance.
You're assuming he understands that it could be done to him. He consumes nothing but crazy alt-right nonsense and has people like Giuliani screaming in his ear that it's OBVIOUS that Hunter Biden took blatant bribes, but everything he and his children done is completely legal and above reproach. Frankly, I think it's kind of astonishing he hasn't tried to arrest Clinton for similar reasons. It was a core promise he made constantly.
I feel doing that is a rubicon Trump doesn't want. Like you normalize arresting your opponents kids you blow away the media's argument about the Biden going after the Trump family malfeaseance.
I think he does want it - democrats and the media squeal about how awful it is that politically motivated prosecution is taking place etc etc, but the damage is done, politically.
And the secondary effects? If and when the prosecutors come for his own kids, he can then point to those same arguments, even if his own kids are clearly guilty. Helps him muddy the water rather well.
yeah kicking off false accusations against Hunter would make a great narrative about legitimate accusations against Kushner and Ivanka. Like say the $700,000 she was paid as a "consultant".
I have to assume it's a good thing that the best counter drop they had to the tax story is that Project Veritas fake nothing about Omar.
Access Hollywood got blunted by the DNC email hack release, but other than going on about drug testing it seems like this tax story is just...unopposed? No real distraction or counternarrative.
That means they are either holding back an oppo dump for a potentially even bigger story that is going to break, or they got nothing.
Barr is going to have a statement or some such about an "investigation" before October is done with. I consider this a reasonable prediction.
My nihilist prediction is they are gearing up to arrest Biden. It's extremely unlikely, but I would not be surprised to find out Trump or a crony have mentioned it.
indicting Hunter is not out of the realm of the possible
I feel doing that is a rubicon Trump doesn't want. Like you normalize arresting your opponents kids you blow away the media's argument about the Biden going after the Trump family malfeaseance.
Does it, though?
They'll make those arguments regardless and then just say that any previous events were "not the same" because reasons. This is pursuing justice, not the political theater and crushing of dissent that those spineless Democrats are doing!
I feel doing that is a rubicon Trump doesn't want. Like you normalize arresting your opponents kids you blow away the media's argument about the Biden going after the Trump family malfeaseance.
I think he does want it - democrats and the media squeal about how awful it is that politically motivated prosecution is taking place etc etc, but the damage is done, politically.
And the secondary effects? If and when the prosecutors come for his own kids, he can then point to those same arguments, even if his own kids are clearly guilty. Helps him muddy the water rather well.
yeah kicking off false accusations against Hunter would make a great narrative about legitimate accusations against Kushner and Ivanka. Like say the $700,000 she was paid as a "consultant".
I would put it at a 95% probability that Hunter gets indicted or arrested before the election is over.
I feel doing that is a rubicon Trump doesn't want. Like you normalize arresting your opponents kids you blow away the media's argument about the Biden going after the Trump family malfeaseance.
I think he does want it - democrats and the media squeal about how awful it is that politically motivated prosecution is taking place etc etc, but the damage is done, politically.
And the secondary effects? If and when the prosecutors come for his own kids, he can then point to those same arguments, even if his own kids are clearly guilty. Helps him muddy the water rather well.
yeah kicking off false accusations against Hunter would make a great narrative about legitimate accusations against Kushner and Ivanka. Like say the $700,000 she was paid as a "consultant".
I would put it at a 95% probability that Hunter gets indicted or arrested before the election is over.
If nothing else, it muddies the waters for his own shit. Either they cry "BOTH SIDES" or they play tapes of Democrats going "Going after family is over the fucking line." Ignoring, of course, that Hunter is just standard rich person nepotism, which is gross and awful, but not illegal, while his family has clearly knowingly been part of a shitload of his illegal schemes, not to mention a number of their own, especially in Don Jr and Kushner's cases.
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lonelyahavaCall me Ahava ~~She/Her~~Move to New ZealandRegistered Userregular
Plus I'm a bit weirded out about how people are treating PA as his home state, but his political career is actually from Delaware.
Like, we're small but we are still a state.
And yes, him being a home town guy from DE has actually had an effect on folks I know back home that wouldn't have voted for a democrat, but they like Joe. They know Joe. He's done good things for the state and helped them out. So they're voting for Joe.
Anecdotal evidence sure, but I know a few at least.
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I hope Collins and her "concerns" get nailed to the wall.
Yeah. But the day Eric Trump is behind closed doors talking about potential real estate fraud I Expect the media to see that as a fun story to focus on and tie these returns to
there’s a reason the gop wanted hunter in to testify, it’s bad optics to even have that happening even if nothing comes out of it
Wait, does that mean these are scheduled the same night as the Presidential debates?
EDIT: Oh wait, tonight. So the day before. NM.
Stephen King has been a VERY vocal anti-Trump and Collins celebrity for a long time now.
The celebrity that I enjoyed fucking GOING OFF on twitter (after having a generally crafted "safe" persona) was Jim Gaffigan, after the RNC. Including saying "fuck" repeatedly.
Speaking of which, he retweeted this, which is 100% the right angle to go on the hair deduction:
also it doesn't matter if you "spend in Ohio" when you're spending on targeted ads to Ohioans through social media.
This whole thing about who's spending where is land line polling all over again. It matters to the people who don't understand how targeted internet ads in 2020 work.
"Biden leads Trump in Pennsylvania, 49 to 40 percent among likely voters, in a new Times/Siena poll"
That's what we like to see. ABC/WaPo at Midnight.
Nate Cohn is a new york times stat guy.
This feels like an outlier, but I want to believe.
pleasepaypreacher.net
My heart won't let me hope again.
the results were within the margin of error, the swing just happened to be in Trump's favor in states where that wasn't expected
i really wish the bad polling narrative would die in a fire
I think it always bears mention that the allowable amount he could deduct for said hair styling was zero. The amount would be absurd and worthy of mockery if it was legal, but it's even more so given that it's not.
I want to know who prepared his taxes, as well, because you know he didn't do this himself.
This is not me attacking the integrity of the 2016 polling.
I'm well aware of the accuracy of the polling, and what actually ended up happening in the end.
But at this point Biden could be leading by 20 points in every state and I will still refuse to believe he's going to win until he's actually inaugurated, because 'hope for the best, plan for the worst' is kind of my default now.
Access Hollywood got blunted by the DNC email hack release, but other than going on about drug testing it seems like this tax story is just...unopposed? No real distraction or counternarrative.
That means they are either holding back an oppo dump for a potentially even bigger story that is going to break, or they got nothing.
This is less 2016 for me, and more this is an actual outlier to recent polls which has been low single digits for Biden.
I mean him being +9 should be where he was at considering he's from Scranton, but he hasn't been there all summer best of my knowledge.
pleasepaypreacher.net
He held a town hall in Scranton with Anderson Cooper less than two weeks ago.
I meant he hasn't been +9 all summer, not physically in Scranton.
pleasepaypreacher.net
i mean trump is from new york
But in all seriousness while home state doesn’t matter much Biden’s whole schtick is designed to appeal to them so he should be doing better
battletag: Millin#1360
Nice chart to figure out how honest a news source is.
Home state just means they know you better, so you get higher name recognition, a better understanding of your general politics, and it makes it easier to use the "I know what you need better than the other guy" pitch.
By all accounts, the better you know Trump, the less you like him and think he should be President, and he has no politics to speak of beyond "Vote for Trump" and he absolutely does not care about anybody other than himself. His pitch was always "Yay Trump, Trump is awesome, Trump is a Billionaire!"
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Well usually the person running has held executive or federal office in their state meaning they were popular enough there to win an election and that shouldn't change for a presidential run.
I think it's more a holdover from when races weren't nationalized. Favourite Sons used to be a thing only like 60-70 years ago.
In case anybody has any friends or family who are JUST ASKING QUESTIONS or whatever about this, since I did a quick lookup of what they were alleging and the like:
The thing that they're alleging is that Omar's campaign was helping people return ballots in the primary. That's totally legal though. As in Minnesota had a law specifically against it, it was overturned early this year by their courts, and then upheld on appeal. You can find it here. The thing that they documented is totally legal. The things they HAVEN'T documented, like bribing people to vote a particular way, are not documented in any way, and are just a dude in a dark room who is totally 100% not James O'Keefe saying that they were doing illegal stuff.
So in summation, they've thoroughly documented her staff doing something completely legal, and are using that to make baseless claims of illegality. You know, the usual.
Yeah its banking on people hearing about a law outlawing it, but not reading that particular law is in dispute and currently under court order not to be enforced.
So the usual project varitas bullshit.
pleasepaypreacher.net
Barr is going to have a statement or some such about an "investigation" before October is done with. I consider this a reasonable prediction.
My nihilist prediction is they are gearing up to arrest Biden. It's extremely unlikely, but I would not be surprised to find out Trump or a crony have mentioned it.
There's also a video floating around of Devin Nunes on Fox News bluntly talking about how ballot harvesting, which is the same thing Ilhan is being accused of, is the only way Republicans can win in CA.
God I wish people tried to buy my votes with free beer in this economy.
JUST SEND ME ALCOHOL
indicting Hunter is not out of the realm of the possible
I feel doing that is a rubicon Trump doesn't want. Like you normalize arresting your opponents kids you blow away the media's argument about the Biden going after the Trump family malfeaseance.
pleasepaypreacher.net
I think he does want it - democrats and the media squeal about how awful it is that politically motivated prosecution is taking place etc etc, but the damage is done, politically.
And the secondary effects? If and when the prosecutors come for his own kids, he can then point to those same arguments, even if his own kids are clearly guilty. Helps him muddy the water rather well.
(bonus points of course due to them actually likely having done illegal or at least questionably legal things, yes I'm hedging here, I'm sure there's plenty of evidence, but until they're convicted I'm following WAPO with boilerplate disclaimers before the pedants descend upon me)
nothing is off the table, dude.
You're assuming he understands that it could be done to him. He consumes nothing but crazy alt-right nonsense and has people like Giuliani screaming in his ear that it's OBVIOUS that Hunter Biden took blatant bribes, but everything he and his children done is completely legal and above reproach. Frankly, I think it's kind of astonishing he hasn't tried to arrest Clinton for similar reasons. It was a core promise he made constantly.
yeah kicking off false accusations against Hunter would make a great narrative about legitimate accusations against Kushner and Ivanka. Like say the $700,000 she was paid as a "consultant".
Does it, though?
They'll make those arguments regardless and then just say that any previous events were "not the same" because reasons. This is pursuing justice, not the political theater and crushing of dissent that those spineless Democrats are doing!
twitch.tv/Taramoor
@TaramoorPlays
Taramoor on Youtube
If nothing else, it muddies the waters for his own shit. Either they cry "BOTH SIDES" or they play tapes of Democrats going "Going after family is over the fucking line." Ignoring, of course, that Hunter is just standard rich person nepotism, which is gross and awful, but not illegal, while his family has clearly knowingly been part of a shitload of his illegal schemes, not to mention a number of their own, especially in Don Jr and Kushner's cases.
Like, we're small but we are still a state.
And yes, him being a home town guy from DE has actually had an effect on folks I know back home that wouldn't have voted for a democrat, but they like Joe. They know Joe. He's done good things for the state and helped them out. So they're voting for Joe.
Anecdotal evidence sure, but I know a few at least.
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