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Microsoft cuts X360 shipment number forecasts

El VientoEl Viento Registered User regular
edited January 2007 in Games and Technology
So, seems after the odd NPD numbers for Nintendo and the WalMarts being constructed entirely out of unsold PS3's comes Microsoft's reduction in projected numbers.

http://uk.xbox360.ign.com/articles/759/759228p1.html

Seems the 10.4 million shipped number will keep the supply chain full for quite some time leading to an estimated 1-3 million less consoles than previously stated shipping through June.

Is gaming in general seeing a downturn?

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El Viento on

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    VeeveeVeevee WisconsinRegistered User regular
    edited January 2007
    I'd say its more of Microsoft refitting their factories for the upgraded 360 that is rumored.

    Veevee on
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    deadonthestreetdeadonthestreet Registered User regular
    edited January 2007
    El Viento wrote:
    Is gaming in general seeing a downturn?
    No it is more like the number of people willing to blow $400 on a console has just about been reached.

    deadonthestreet on
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    Vincent GraysonVincent Grayson Frederick, MDRegistered User regular
    edited January 2007
    Also, no one buys anything at the start of the year. Sales of most stuff will start to kick back up in the spring once people get some tax refunds and whatnot.

    At least, that's what I always noticed when I worked retail.

    Vincent Grayson on
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    DukhatDukhat Registered User regular
    edited January 2007
    I'd say its more of Microsoft refitting their factories for the upgraded 360 that is rumored.

    I don't think Microsoft actually controls their factories. Their taiwanese suppliers and most processor fabs will be switching over to a 65nm process around summer.

    The cut was due to less than expected sales for the 360 and the fact that shipping their original target goal of consoles would've required a price-cut and they want to be profitable for 2007.

    I think console prices will be locked until Christmas when we might see some movement.

    Both Microsoft and Sony will be moving to a 65nm process this summer so its likely we'll see a slight price-cut from both.

    Dukhat on
    Holla!
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    TheSonicRetardTheSonicRetard Registered User regular
    edited January 2007
    The majority of consoles sold will happen within the first year of their life.

    TheSonicRetard on
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    HepecarneHepecarne Registered User regular
    edited January 2007
    Dukhat wrote:
    I'd say its more of Microsoft refitting their factories for the upgraded 360 that is rumored.

    I don't think Microsoft actually controls their factories. Their taiwanese suppliers and most processor fabs will be switching over to a 65nm process around summer.

    The cut was due to less than expected sales for the 360 and the fact that shipping their original target goal of consoles would've required a price-cut and they want to be profitable for 2007.

    I think console prices will be locked until Christmas when we might see some movement.

    Both Microsoft and Sony will be moving to a 65nm process this summer so its likely we'll see a slight price-cut from both.

    I think Microsoft actually beat forecast in sales over the past year (thanks in large part to the PS3). Microsoft has however stated that they want the division to be profitable by 2008 which means no new price cuts until at least the holidays (and the cheaper to manufacture 65nm chips come out). As someone else posted, they are reaching the limit of the amount of people that are willing to drop $400 on a console and as such are lowering forecasts for the upcoming year.

    Personally I think this is stupid, they should bite the bullet, drop the price $100, stop the PS3 from gaining any traction, and reap the profits that a dominate market share will provide in 2-3 years. But stockholders are ancy about a project that has been in the red for about 6 years running in a highly profitable company.

    Hepecarne on
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    DukhatDukhat Registered User regular
    edited January 2007
    The majority of consoles sold will happen within the first year of their life.

    I don't think this has ever been true for any successful console (3-4 year lifespan).

    The majority of consoles sell once they reach critical mass: mass-market price and a solid catalog of triple-A titles.

    Dukhat on
    Holla!
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    ToadTheMushroomToadTheMushroom Registered User regular
    edited January 2007
    The majority of consoles sold will happen within the first year of their life.

    So wrong.

    ToadTheMushroom on
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    bruinbruin Registered User regular
    edited January 2007
    El Viento wrote:
    Is gaming in general seeing a downturn?
    Hasn't the video game industry made more money every year for the past 5 years or so? Wasn't 2006 a record-breaking year? Isn't DS on track to maybe be the best selling console ever?

    bruin on
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    PiptheFairPiptheFair Frequently not in boats. Registered User regular
    edited January 2007
    The majority of consoles sold will happen within the first year of their life.
    I call shens here.

    PiptheFair on
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    TheSonicRetardTheSonicRetard Registered User regular
    edited January 2007
    PipTheFair wrote:
    The majority of consoles sold will happen within the first year of their life.
    I call shens here.

    I was told this in a lecture last semester.

    If you give me a while, I can find the exact quote.

    TheSonicRetard on
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    JihadJesusJihadJesus Registered User regular
    edited January 2007
    The majority of consoles sold will happen within the first year of their life.
    What an appropriate screen name you have there, retard.

    Okay, that was harsh. But funny. I thought.

    JihadJesus on
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    PiptheFairPiptheFair Frequently not in boats. Registered User regular
    edited January 2007
    PipTheFair wrote:
    The majority of consoles sold will happen within the first year of their life.
    I call shens here.

    I was told this in a lecture last semester.

    If you give me a while, I can find the exact quote.
    If you got statistics, I really want to see them, because that really does not seem legit at all.

    PiptheFair on
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    SansaaraiSansaarai Registered User regular
    edited January 2007
    Microsoft to buy Microsoft in five years.

    Sansaarai on
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    DigDug2000DigDug2000 Registered User regular
    edited January 2007
    Hepecarne wrote:
    Dukhat wrote:
    I'd say its more of Microsoft refitting their factories for the upgraded 360 that is rumored.

    I don't think Microsoft actually controls their factories. Their taiwanese suppliers and most processor fabs will be switching over to a 65nm process around summer.

    The cut was due to less than expected sales for the 360 and the fact that shipping their original target goal of consoles would've required a price-cut and they want to be profitable for 2007.

    I think console prices will be locked until Christmas when we might see some movement.

    Both Microsoft and Sony will be moving to a 65nm process this summer so its likely we'll see a slight price-cut from both.
    I think Microsoft actually beat forecast in sales over the past year (thanks in large part to the PS3). Microsoft has however stated that they want the division to be profitable by 2008 which means no new price cuts until at least the holidays (and the cheaper to manufacture 65nm chips come out). As someone else posted, they are reaching the limit of the amount of people that are willing to drop $400 on a console and as such are lowering forecasts for the upcoming year.

    Personally I think this is stupid, they should bite the bullet, drop the price $100, stop the PS3 from gaining any traction, and reap the profits that a dominate market share will provide in 2-3 years. But stockholders are ancy about a project that has been in the red for about 6 years running in a highly profitable company.
    Yeah. MS said they would "ship" 10million consoles last year, and they did. Even the most dense analysts I've read were saying in November that they'd ship 10million whether they could sell them or not, hence the numbers were meaningless. This is the final result of that over shipping. They had to lower the forecasts for this first quarter from... what 15 million to 12? Most people seem to be taking this as MS admitting that it isn't selling as well as they'd hoped it would.

    DigDug2000 on
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    TheSonicRetardTheSonicRetard Registered User regular
    edited January 2007
    PipTheFair wrote:
    PipTheFair wrote:
    The majority of consoles sold will happen within the first year of their life.
    I call shens here.

    I was told this in a lecture last semester.

    If you give me a while, I can find the exact quote.
    If you got statistics, I really want to see them, because that really does not seem legit at all.

    I remembered that (and that PC gaming constitutes 16% of the market) specifically because they were so odd and unexpected.

    I've got a meeting to run in a bit, but after, I can go through my old notes from last semester to give you the exact quote.

    I don't just say things to sound stupid, after all.

    TheSonicRetard on
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    slurpeepoopslurpeepoop Registered User regular
    edited January 2007
    Well, in TSR's defense, I can attest to the majority of systems sold in the first year........for systems that fail in that year or quickly afterward.

    Like the N-Gage.

    Or the Virtual Boy. Or the Jaguar and the tiger.com.

    Yes, even the Dreamcast. The mighty Dreamcast.

    Yeah, I went there.

    slurpeepoop on
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    ShadowfireShadowfire Vermont, in the middle of nowhereRegistered User regular
    edited January 2007
    Dukhat wrote:
    I'd say its more of Microsoft refitting their factories for the upgraded 360 that is rumored.

    I don't think Microsoft actually controls their factories. Their taiwanese suppliers and most processor fabs will be switching over to a 65nm process around summer.

    The cut was due to less than expected sales for the 360 and the fact that shipping their original target goal of consoles would've required a price-cut and they want to be profitable for 2007.

    I think console prices will be locked until Christmas when we might see some movement.

    Both Microsoft and Sony will be moving to a 65nm process this summer so its likely we'll see a slight price-cut from both.

    Could you imagine what a christmas price cut would do for Microsoft? Assassin's Creed, Mass Effect, Halo 3, and a price drop all within 2 months of christmas would be amazing.

    Shadowfire on
    WiiU: Windrunner ; Guild Wars 2: Shadowfire.3940 ; PSN: Bradcopter
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    bruinbruin Registered User regular
    edited January 2007
    Shadowfire wrote:
    Dukhat wrote:
    I'd say its more of Microsoft refitting their factories for the upgraded 360 that is rumored.

    I don't think Microsoft actually controls their factories. Their taiwanese suppliers and most processor fabs will be switching over to a 65nm process around summer.

    The cut was due to less than expected sales for the 360 and the fact that shipping their original target goal of consoles would've required a price-cut and they want to be profitable for 2007.

    I think console prices will be locked until Christmas when we might see some movement.

    Both Microsoft and Sony will be moving to a 65nm process this summer so its likely we'll see a slight price-cut from both.

    Could you imagine what a christmas price cut would do for Microsoft? Assassin's Creed, Mass Effect, Halo 3, and a price drop all within 2 months of christmas would be amazing.
    GTA4 hallo

    bruin on
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    Houk the NamebringerHouk the Namebringer Nipples The EchidnaRegistered User regular
    edited January 2007
    PipTheFair wrote:
    PipTheFair wrote:
    The majority of consoles sold will happen within the first year of their life.
    I call shens here.

    I was told this in a lecture last semester.

    If you give me a while, I can find the exact quote.
    If you got statistics, I really want to see them, because that really does not seem legit at all.

    I remembered that (and that PC gaming constitutes 16% of the market) specifically because they were so odd and unexpected.

    I've got a meeting to run in a bit, but after, I can go through my old notes from last semester to give you the exact quote.

    I don't just say things to sound stupid, after all.
    You're gonna need more than just a quote from your professor. I think to back up a statement like that, we need actual numbers for all major consoles. Cuz i just plain don't buy that at all.

    edit: maybe im misreading the comment. if youre saying that a console sells more in its first year than in any single year after, that i might buy. but if youre saying it sells more in its first year than it will the rest of its life cycle, that i do not buy.

    Houk the Namebringer on
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    DukhatDukhat Registered User regular
    edited January 2007
    Isn't DS on track to maybe be the best selling console ever?

    DS is on track with the original GBA now, but sales in Japan are stronger than the GBA's were and everywhere else, they are about as strong as the GBA, so they will do a little better than the GBA.

    However, it is highly doubtful that the DS will beat the PS2 which is 110 million and growing stronger. Sony is goign to be releasing multi-colored PS2's next year and will continue to release exclusive games as well (God of War 2 for example).

    Dukhat on
    Holla!
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    CrayonCrayon Sleeps in the wrong bed. TejasRegistered User regular
    edited January 2007
    Dukhat wrote:
    Isn't DS on track to maybe be the best selling console ever?

    DS is on track with the original GBA now, but sales in Japan are stronger than the GBA's were and everywhere else, they are about as strong as the GBA, so they will do a little better than the GBA.

    However, it is highly doubtful that the DS will beat the PS2 which is 110 million and growing stronger. Sony is goign to be releasing multi-colored PS2's next year and will continue to release exclusive games as well (God of War 2 for example).

    And one problem, the DS isn't a console.

    Crayon on
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    DoctorArchDoctorArch Curmudgeon Registered User regular
    edited January 2007
    I'd agree that a price drop is really in Microsoft's best interest right now (and mine as I haven't picked up a 360 yet :) )

    Seriously, the PS3 is not living up to expectations, and when this year continues, it probably will not. I figure that Microsoft will watch their sales slowly decline for this year, and will definitely pull out a price break by the holiday season, just to cement themselves as the console of this generation.

    DoctorArch on
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    ToadTheMushroomToadTheMushroom Registered User regular
    edited January 2007
    Dukhat wrote:
    Isn't DS on track to maybe be the best selling console ever?

    DS is on track with the original GBA now, but sales in Japan are stronger than the GBA's were and everywhere else, they are about as strong as the GBA, so they will do a little better than the GBA.

    However, it is highly doubtful that the DS will beat the PS2 which is 110 million and growing stronger. Sony is goign to be releasing multi-colored PS2's next year and will continue to release exclusive games as well (God of War 2 for example).

    Plus Iin my opinion you shouldnt compare the DS to, say, a 360 or a Dreamcast. Not in a negative way but simply a combination of price, equipment needed and the way in which you use them the DS is not a home console and shouldnt be considered 'beating' the PS3 or 360 or the Wii in that respect.

    ToadTheMushroom on
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    Gaming-ModuleGaming-Module Registered User regular
    edited January 2007
    It would actually be pretty sad if the 360 sales slumped this year. God knows they have enough AAA software coming to warrant the purchase: Bioshock, Forza 2, Mass Effect, Halo 3 and the JRPG trifecta of Blue Dragon, Lost Odyssey and Eternal Sonata.

    Honestly, they've gotten to where they are currently on practically fumes.

    Gaming-Module on
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    Liabe BraveLiabe Brave Registered User regular
    edited January 2007
    Houk wrote:
    [if youre saying that a console sells more in its first year than in any single year after, that i might buy. but if youre saying it sells more in its first year than it will the rest of its life cycle, that i do not buy.

    Even that first claim doesn't seem to be true. Since we have Sony's shipped numbers over time, we can say for sure that it's not true for the PS1 or PS2--they both had years that surpassed their launch year (the PS2 did that in 2006, for example).

    Depending on how reliable you think VGCharts is, their graphs show that the SNES, the N64, the Gamecube, and the Xbox also all sold more in later years than in their respective launch years.

    Liabe Brave on
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    ShadowfireShadowfire Vermont, in the middle of nowhereRegistered User regular
    edited January 2007
    It would actually be pretty sad if the 360 sales slumped this year. God knows they have enough AAA software coming to warrant the purchase: Bioshock, Forza 2, Mass Effect, Halo 3 and the JRPG trifecta of Blue Dragon, Lost Odyssey and Eternal Sonata.

    Honestly, they've gotten to where they are currently on practically fumes.

    ....

    Condemned, Gears of War, R6 Vegas, CoD2, Oblivion, Dead Rising, PGR3, Lost Planet, Crackdown, Viva Pinata....

    I'd hardly call it "on fumes." I'd actually put it on track with a lot of "new" consoles, and ahead of most.

    Shadowfire on
    WiiU: Windrunner ; Guild Wars 2: Shadowfire.3940 ; PSN: Bradcopter
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    Gaming-ModuleGaming-Module Registered User regular
    edited January 2007
    Shadowfire wrote:

    ....

    Condemned, Gears of War, R6 Vegas, CoD2, Oblivion, Dead Rising, PGR3, Lost Planet, Crackdown, Viva Pinata....

    I'd hardly call it "on fumes." I'd actually put it on track with a lot of "new" consoles, and ahead of most.

    Don't get me wrong. I love my 360 more than my Wii at this point, but those are fumes compared to the full tank o' gas we're getting this year.

    Most of 360's big guns (rimshot) were first person/third person shooters. Oblivion had a PC release that I hear is better because of mods (scaling, argh!). Dead Rising is just one unique game in the bunch that did well.

    No one bought Viva Pinata, probably because MS/Rare were retarded and tried to wrap one of the funnest sims in years in a focus group created mish-mash of Pokemon/Mucha Lucha Saturday morning cartoon ripoff crap.

    Oh and take out Lost Planet and Crackdown. Those apply to 2007.

    Gaming-Module on
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    bruinbruin Registered User regular
    edited January 2007
    There's no way 360 sales will slump this year with Halo 3 and GTA. Those are about as big releases as you can have.

    Edit - Also, there's a good chance the price will drop.

    bruin on
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    breakzbreakz Registered User regular
    edited January 2007
    I really don't know about a price cut. Rumors talk about a 120GB HD, but MS is still losing money on every unit sold.

    Ninja: The last sentence matters b/c they wanted a profitable gaming unit during this gen.

    breakz on
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    TexiKenTexiKen Dammit! That fish really got me!Registered User regular
    edited January 2007
    breakz wrote:
    I really don't know about a price cut. Rumors talk about a 120GB HD, but MS is still losing money on every unit sold.

    Ninja: The last sentence matters b/c they wanted a profitable gaming unit during this gen.

    I thought it was reported on kotaku or joystiq that Microsoft now makes about 80 bucks profit on every system sold due to lower tech prices/increased manufacturing efficiency.

    TexiKen on
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    DarkPrimusDarkPrimus Registered User regular
    edited January 2007
    Crayon wrote:
    Dukhat wrote:
    Isn't DS on track to maybe be the best selling console ever?

    DS is on track with the original GBA now, but sales in Japan are stronger than the GBA's were and everywhere else, they are about as strong as the GBA, so they will do a little better than the GBA.

    However, it is highly doubtful that the DS will beat the PS2 which is 110 million and growing stronger. Sony is goign to be releasing multi-colored PS2's next year and will continue to release exclusive games as well (God of War 2 for example).

    And one problem, the DS isn't a console.

    Just because it's handheld, doesn't mean it's not a console.

    DarkPrimus on
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    TerrorbyteTerrorbyte __BANNED USERS regular
    edited January 2007
    Why is there so much double-talk and excuse making in this thread? If it were Sony spouting out some 10 million "shipped" number, there'd be calls of bullshit ringin' loud enough for the whole world to hear. Sales are what puts the food on the table, and the 360 isn't selling fast enough to get those shipments off the shelves. The projection cut spells this out explicitly. The PlayStation 3 is having this problem as well, while Wii shipments can't stay on the shelves for longer than a day.

    I know we all have our favorite consoles and I like the 360 a lot, but let's quit it with the ridiculous bull and call a spade a spade.

    Terrorbyte on
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