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The State of the Middle East [Talking 'dominos]
Posts
Also if we can get King Carlos of Spain to tell Hugo Chavez to STFU again. That never gets old.
NEVER.
I totally forgot about that, that was good sutff.
People watching videos from Al-Jazeera and BBC on unrest are arrested in Zimbabwe.
I can't see any foreign intervention happening. The US is occupying two countires in MENA and have already bitten off more than they can chew, the UK is the only other western power with the force projection to make intervention possible and we're flat broke even if there was any political will.
As for Egypt and Tunisia? I think they have their own serious problems to worry about right now, why anyone would even think intervention from them is possible let alone likley is beyond me.
Possibly. But who will enforce it?
Still, if they do, it would be nice to get some use out of our fancy f-22s.
Pretty much exactly what I was thinking. Anyone have a few spare aircraft carriers?
More seriously I don't see the US getting involved for already stated reasons and the political climate atm. Maybe this is a good chance for the EU to put the Typhoon to use.
I never said anything about F-22's. But an aircraft carrier off the coast of Libya is probably the most likley way the US would enforce a no fly zone.
I don't see any of the EU nations rushing to volenteer for that job. For a start one of Libyas neighbours would have to give them an air base to operate from. Remember very few EU countries have carriers and those that do only have one or two which spend most of their time in port being refitted.
I don't mind admitting the UK's carriers are crap, not to mention in a recent absurd decision we decided to scrap all our sea harriers and have nothing to replace them with for a decade. France only has one carrier, Spain and Italy have two (only small STOVL ones though) , but if past experience is any guide they won't be using them to enforce any international treaties.
Using the US Navy would be a logistical stretch. Could they even intercept bombing runs in time from a carrier? Libya is a big country.
They wouldn't have to operate from a carrier. They'd likely fly orbits inside the country, somewhat near an airbase, using a refueling plane of some kind to increase how long a flight can stay in the air, as well as a radar plane to allow them to detect planes as soon as they take off.
I'm not one for monarchies, but if we had to pick a World Emperor, King Carlos is up there on my list of candidates.
Shitty Tumblr:lighthouse1138.tumblr.com
Except, what air base?
You can refuel the fighters in mid-air all you want that doesn't mean pilots can operate them effectively for more than 8 hours.
The logistical commitment this would take is bigger than the years of playing the game Risk has led you to believe. It would be easier just to take out Libya's Air Force while it's on the ground.
Well then you're not just enforcing a no-fly zone, you're bombing Libyan air bases and more than likely killing non-combatants like mechanics and refuelers in the process.
I don't know, sure those countries are in the neighbourhood but by the time a plane takling off in Turkey got to Libya the planes they set out to intercept would have done what they set out to do and returned to their base.
So no, I did not just blurt that out with as much thought as I would into a Risk move.
Indeed. I know a guy who is deployed in N Italy, as a F-16 pilot . Or at least he was last time I heard from him
I still think it's a stretch. By the time we could muster authorization from the security council the deed would be largely symbolic.
Wouldn't make any difference if they did. I've no doubt that more of this information than you'd think does make it's way to the average Chinese person. The Chinese police state and information surpression is more effective by orders of magnitude than anything you'll find in the middle east. I recently read (I think it was on BBC) that they spend almost as much on internal policing as they do on defence.
And I doubt Libya has the capability to take out carriers. Well, unless we're talking an asymmetric type of threat where they drive a small boat full of explosives into one.
A carrier is almost always safer than an actual airbase, actually
I'm sure we could get a Tom Clancy plot out of this situation though.
I'm farily confident anything unresponsive to communications that attempts to close with a carrier at sea is going to be sunk in a very violent manner long before reaching the carrier itself.
But then I'm not really sure where Libya's airfields would be. The major population centers are on the coast, but that doesn't mean there can't be an airfield 150 miles inland.
If a no-fly zone is declared with any kind of real authority, I really doubt the Libyan air force would dare launch any of their aircraft, it would be a total suicide mission against a modern fighter.
You do know how batshit insane Gadaffi is right? Certainly enough to order his air force to attack anyway. Who knows if they would obay in the knowlage they would be up against the USAF.
Thanks Iran, your sense of timing is just lovely.