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The State of the Middle East [Talking 'dominos]
[Tycho?]![[Tycho?]](https://us.v-cdn.net/5018289/uploads/userpics/934/nHG8VEMRTY5QM.gif)
As elusive as doubtRegistered User regular
As elusive as doubtRegistered User regular
Things are getting interesting.
I'm sure we've all heard about the uprising in Tunisia
http://forums.penny-arcade.com/showthread.php?t=135215
The president has fled. The current government is still basically the same thing, being run by allies of the former president. People are still not happy though, rioting continues. The high cost of food appeared to be the tipping point, but now the Tunisian people are getting a taste for a media that is no longer being controlled by the state, and they like it. Things are still in flux there, and could change at any time.
Algeria, a massive nation is facing the same problems as Tunisia, and is also seeing riots. Will they go as far as those in Tunisia? Who knows; the government has yet to fall but anger among the populace has been brewing for decades.
http://english.aljazeera.net/news/africa/2011/01/201118135821794812.html
Leaks are in vogue these days, and recently thousands of documents called the "Palestine Papers" have been linked. Detailing things like negotiations between Israel and the PA, and plenty of dirt like we've come to expect. Guarunteed to change things in the "peace process" and possibly put some real heat on the Palestinian Authority for their cooperation with Israel.
http://forums.penny-arcade.com/showthread.php?t=135772
The government in Lebanon recently collapsed due to a parliamentary vote. The candidate favored by the Hezbollah has now been made PM, and there are riots in the streets. All this is because of the results from an investigation into the assassination of Rafik Hariri, with indictments almost certainly implicating Hezbollah expected.... at some point. Hezbollah wants to cancel the investigation, saying evidence against them has been planted by Israel.
http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2011/01/201112535328227823.html
Now, possibly most importantly, we are seeing mass demonstrations in Egypt. This is a big deal. Egypt also faces problems of rising food prices, mass corruption and general oppression. Egypt is an important and powerful nation though, and one of the cornerstones of US power in the region. Mubarak has been the US friendly strongman for 30 years. He's old, and there is as yet no clear successor (though his son is assumed to be the up and comer). If the government of Egypt were to fall this would be of massive importance, it would totally alter the political and military balance of the entire region.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-12272836
We've also got southern Sudan breaking away from the north, an Islamic insurgency in the neighbourning Caucuses, Gulf States that are as stable as a house of cards, and the usual atrocities going on in Iraq. Israel may or may not bomb Iran, they haven't decided yet.
Interesting times.
*****
UPDATE: Jan 28th
Well things have changed. Here are some sources that can keep you up to date with the fast moving situation in Egypt. Thanks to Armored Gorilla for providing the links.
http://twitter.com/search?q=%23egypt
http://english.aljazeera.net/watch_now/
http://www.guardian.co.uk/news/blog/...s-live-updates - Live blog from Jan 28
http://www.guardian.co.uk/news/blog - Link to the 29th's live blog will likely show up here in a few hours
http://www.newyorker.com/online/blog...sr-al-nil.html
http://totallycoolpix.com/2011/01/the-egypt-protests/ - NWS, unfortunate domain name
http://www.whitehouse.gov/blog/2011/...rough-consent- - Obama's Statement
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/0..._n_815682.html - Mubarak's Statement
*******
Update Feb11th:
On Day 18 of the protests, Mubarak has stepped down. We will see what comes next.
I'm sure we've all heard about the uprising in Tunisia
http://forums.penny-arcade.com/showthread.php?t=135215
The president has fled. The current government is still basically the same thing, being run by allies of the former president. People are still not happy though, rioting continues. The high cost of food appeared to be the tipping point, but now the Tunisian people are getting a taste for a media that is no longer being controlled by the state, and they like it. Things are still in flux there, and could change at any time.
Algeria, a massive nation is facing the same problems as Tunisia, and is also seeing riots. Will they go as far as those in Tunisia? Who knows; the government has yet to fall but anger among the populace has been brewing for decades.
http://english.aljazeera.net/news/africa/2011/01/201118135821794812.html
Leaks are in vogue these days, and recently thousands of documents called the "Palestine Papers" have been linked. Detailing things like negotiations between Israel and the PA, and plenty of dirt like we've come to expect. Guarunteed to change things in the "peace process" and possibly put some real heat on the Palestinian Authority for their cooperation with Israel.
http://forums.penny-arcade.com/showthread.php?t=135772
The government in Lebanon recently collapsed due to a parliamentary vote. The candidate favored by the Hezbollah has now been made PM, and there are riots in the streets. All this is because of the results from an investigation into the assassination of Rafik Hariri, with indictments almost certainly implicating Hezbollah expected.... at some point. Hezbollah wants to cancel the investigation, saying evidence against them has been planted by Israel.
http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2011/01/201112535328227823.html
Now, possibly most importantly, we are seeing mass demonstrations in Egypt. This is a big deal. Egypt also faces problems of rising food prices, mass corruption and general oppression. Egypt is an important and powerful nation though, and one of the cornerstones of US power in the region. Mubarak has been the US friendly strongman for 30 years. He's old, and there is as yet no clear successor (though his son is assumed to be the up and comer). If the government of Egypt were to fall this would be of massive importance, it would totally alter the political and military balance of the entire region.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-12272836
We've also got southern Sudan breaking away from the north, an Islamic insurgency in the neighbourning Caucuses, Gulf States that are as stable as a house of cards, and the usual atrocities going on in Iraq. Israel may or may not bomb Iran, they haven't decided yet.
Interesting times.
*****
UPDATE: Jan 28th
Well things have changed. Here are some sources that can keep you up to date with the fast moving situation in Egypt. Thanks to Armored Gorilla for providing the links.
http://twitter.com/search?q=%23egypt
http://english.aljazeera.net/watch_now/
http://www.guardian.co.uk/news/blog/...s-live-updates - Live blog from Jan 28
http://www.guardian.co.uk/news/blog - Link to the 29th's live blog will likely show up here in a few hours
http://www.newyorker.com/online/blog...sr-al-nil.html
http://totallycoolpix.com/2011/01/the-egypt-protests/ - NWS, unfortunate domain name
http://www.whitehouse.gov/blog/2011/...rough-consent- - Obama's Statement
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/0..._n_815682.html - Mubarak's Statement
*******
Update Feb11th:
On Day 18 of the protests, Mubarak has stepped down. We will see what comes next.
[Tycho?] on
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Doesn't seem that different from normal, unfortunately.
Tunisia seems to be coming out of the gates strongly, though. I was hearing some interviews about how a lot of Tunisians are pissed at the French, as the French response to the riots was to offer anti-riot gear and expertise to the previous government. And, following that falling out, that many Tunisians were eager for the US to use the opportunity to engage with the new government and Tunisian youth.
They're good at diplomacy too. They work with Christian and Druze factions. As is required by the constitution of Lebanon, their choice for PM is a Sunni, not Shia. They also have huge popular support and can easily mobilize thousands of people on to the streets if they want to.
The situation in Egypt would be nicer if it wasn't for the fact the most powerful group on the rise, and the most likely group to take power if Mubarak's government falls, is the Muslim Brotherhood, a fundamentalist group who has been responsible for rising religious tensions in the country.
Mubarak's government is secular, and gives both official recognition and limited power to the Coptic Christian minority in the country. Obviously a secular government does not sit well with Muslim fundamentalists, any more than non-Muslim minorities do. We've seen the tensions boil over a few weeks ago, with the terrorist bombing of a Coptic church during a new-year service. The Egyptian government immediately blamed it on the Iraq wing of Al-Qaeda (which has been calling for the death of all Christians in Egypt), but the general feeling is that they are only a convenient scapegoat for the government to sweep the rising local tensions under the rug. Incidentally, the Egyptian government has barred all reporting on the official bombing investigation.
Mubarak may be a dictator, but he's one who cares only about keeping his power and who is not trying to push some violent agenda (save when his power is threatened). If he falls and gets replaced by fundamentalists looking to turn Egypt into an Islamic state, it will be a bloodbath, and likely a civil (or holy, depending on your angle) war.
Yes I feel dirty cheering on for a two-bit dictator, but he's the least bad of the two options.
I don't think the Muslim Brotherhood seizing power is a good thing, but I honestly wonder under which regime the Copts would be better off.
Yeah, they are very, very smart.
Honestly, I'm kind of pro-Hezbollah. Only in the contrast to everything else in the region though.
Most Coptic people now can live semi-normal lives, so long that they are thick-skinned, stick together, and don't cross the authorities. They don't have to worry about getting murdered in the streets, or having their buildings blow up... although this is changing now. But it will change a lot more and a lot faster if the Brotherhood takes over. They are better off under the regime that only ignores them rather than the one that actively tries to kill them off.
Shogun Streams Vidya
You're assuming that under a Muslim Brotherhood government they would have to worry about being murdered in the street. I don't know of anything that suggests this would be true, though I'm not an expert on their politics and would be happy to read more if you have any suggested links.
Wow. I knew the US was scared of the upcoming UN vote, but not that scared.
Muslim Brotherhood isn't exactly Al-Qaida. Actual proven acts of violence attributed to the group are few and far in between, and even then mostly targeted against the government. And it's hard to imagine Egypt where Muslim Brotherhood could gain such complete and utter power as say, Ayatollah in Iran (and even Iran minorities aren't murdered in the streets or anything). Mubarak is no Shah.
I'm not saying that they are liberals, they still have medieval attitudes on women's rights, etc. But to say that it would become a terror regime is kind of dishonest. Nothing indicates that.
Regardless, I don't know if they are really the most popular opposition faction any more. The most well known, probably the most powerful, yes. They won a ton of seats in an election 10 or so years ago, before they got banned and shut down. Since then they've proved themselves to be quite useless though. They haven't stirred up much shit, the government has shut them down and neutered them pretty effectively. If you get angery youths on the street sort of situation, the Muslim Brotherhood may start to look like their grandparents choice for a revolution, not theirs. I'd think some smaller, radical, more energetic and youthful group would have a very good chance if the government fell and general chaos ensued. I don't know what that sort of group would look like though.
Same. When Israel invaded I was rooting for them.
On the other hand I absolutely despise all organized religion, and the idea of being governed by a religious group is a terrible thought. I have to step back once and a while to remember that, especially when talking about such things. Just talking about Hezbollah online probably puts me on a terrorist watch-list.
Last I checked the US government only considers Hezbollah's military wing a terrorist organization. It does bother me that, at least in america, the name Hezbollah has an instant connotation of terrorist which is absolutely not the truth. Hezbollah does a great deal for the Lebanese people despite having a military wing. They are no Hamas and certainly no Taliban or Al-Qaeda.
Shogun Streams Vidya
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-12272836
Amen to that. I'd love to think now the cat is out the bag we can finally stop pretending Israel ever had any intention of being reasonable, but we all know it won't. The peace process has been going on so long it's pretty much an end in itself now not a means. The Israelis are just endlessly stalling for time to carry on doing whatever they damn well please.
Meanwhile the US will carry on giving Israel shiploads of weapons and the rest of the world will continue to sit on their hands tutting about how terrible the whole thing is. This will end when Palastine is eventually completly absorbed into Israel or when the Israelis decide they have all the territory they want, at which point they'll kick the Palastinians onto the worthless patches of scrubland they've generiously left them with.
A few weeks back a union made of many (50~) of the major rabbis released a series of papers calling for the religious to not sell or rent property to Arabs nor hire them or buy from them. Kahana's movement (who are self-admitted racists dedicated to driving foreigners away - violently if need be - and continuing the expansion of Israel), having existed only as a fringe minority for countless years, is steadily growing by the day. In religious neighborhoods their propaganda pamphlets are becoming omnipresent, covered in delightfuly Naziesque slogans such as 'Is your daughter going out with an Arab? Act now!'. I once went to a supermarket in a religious neighborhood and saw what I can only dub as the movement's equivalent of Mein Kampf sold right above eggs and bread.
The average family has 2.5~ children. The average orthodox family has 6~. Sane people are literally being outbreeded - not that it would matter much if they weren't since most don't even bother to vote or display anything but sickening apathy. Israel Beiteynu is FacismLite, and the rest of the government is as right-leaning as it ever was.
tl;dr, unless something comes out of the left field, we are fucked. I am getting out of here ASAP.
EDIT: Casual: Even without US aid, things wouldn't change overmuch. Israel's army is 85% self-funded and its economy is not experiencing the world-wide crisis. It will hurt, but the country will hold with ease.
I see it. Guys like Lieberman getting into power. If Israel continues the way it is going, then it leads to its own destruction.
I disagree strongly that things wont change without US aid. I don't have time now but I'll discuss this more later.
Fundamentalism exists in all religions to be honest. Sadly nutcases are a by product of reading religious texts and believing the end times.
So, I don't think just stopping the funding will have much effect on anything.
can you obtain one of those pamphlets and scan it or link to it?
just wondering what it looks like. is it like a piece of paper typed up and copied by some dude or is it like some full color, professional quality work that is really nazi-esque?
"I think I can comment on this because I used to live above the Baby Doll Lounge, a topless bar that was once frequented by bikers in lower Manhattan."
I highly doubt that is true, unless some officials or military officers got involved and staged a coup.
A quick check on wikipedia indicates that from 2001-07, the US gave Israel almost 20 billion dollars in "military aid", which is just money to be spent on weapons. Israel gets the unique privilege of not having to spend it all on US weapons, they can spend a quarter of it on their own stuff. Since 2007, the average funding per year has apparently increased to 3 billion a year.
Israel's GDP is 200 billion, its military budget is 13 billion a year. So that military aid is a huge, HUGE amount of money. It also gives Israel access to a great deal of advanced weapons.
Probably more importantly is how the US goes out of its way to shield Israel from harm and even criticism. Any UN resolution mentioning Israel is instantly vetoed. Any perceived aggression towards Israel brings down serious US pressure, as we are seeing with Iran at this very moment. If you move against Israel (or if Israel moves against you) you can know that the most powerful nation in the world is also against you.
If the US stopped treating Israel like an over protecting parent protects a spoiled kid, things would change in a big way.
The Torah is just the first 5 books of the Tanakh and was finished probably a little while after the end of the Babylonian Exile. EG: about 1000 years before Muhammad.
There is rather a lot about in there (though these are the older bits, the Tanakh - or "Old Testament" if you are a Christian, came together over a very long time by many hands) about indiscriminately slaying the people of Canaan as it is the promised land (eg: between the Jordan and the sea).
This is NOT a troll post.
Seriously.
Steam Profile | Signature art by Alexandra 'Lexxy' Douglass
Who is we?
I care about it because I find it interesting politically, because so much of the world has interests there.
The thread could have been The State of Oceania" in which case I wouldn't be posting in it, because I don't care about that region.
Just never 'got' them.
Steam Profile | Signature art by Alexandra 'Lexxy' Douglass
See my previous post
Lots of oil, lots of conflict and violence, lots of religious history. Take your pick.
All matter and energy shall belong to the US!
Pack your backs, men. We're stealing the sun!
I completly agree. While the money no doubt helps the real US help comes in the form of silencing the international community from making any negitive gesture about Israel. You could bet your ass if a country without US backing did this the EU would be all over them with trade sanctions and condemnation.
In a sad kind of way it's almost good Israel is becoming openly fascist. It'll eventually force to US to stop openly supporting Israel once we start seeing people forced into "arab only" neighbourhoods and bans on inter-ethnic marrage.
Why? Did the Palestine Ghettoes, I mean Security Fence, open the US' eyes?
.
Island. Being on fire.
Not if people like Eric Cantor are in power. If it was up to this guy America and Israel would nuke palestine, iran, and syria simultaneously. His political power grows with each cycle as well.
Shogun Streams Vidya
And the population is rising up against the government as well!
Shitty Tumblr:lighthouse1138.tumblr.com
Fragile and failed states are breeding grounds for criminal enterprises and are a gigantic security threat to every other sovereign state.