Primary 2012: Trumpabee v. Rombargrich

Speaker

A thread for the 2012 presidential primaries.

Several notes: I'm including information on candidates below. I've left out third party and very minor candidates for now. This isn't because of my diabolical political agenda, it's because after trying to include them there simply wasn't very much information about who is running and who they are because they don't have the long long long campaign process that Republicans/Democrats have. I will update the OP with their information (perhaps in a successor thread if this one runs over) maybe July or Augustish.

There are several very well known independent candidates - but the trick with them is whether they'll run or not. I'll be happy to update the OP with their info if any of them start showing signs of running.

I'm omitting Democrats challenging Barack Obama for now.

Forever

The last time I made this thread I was a little more savvy about political websites that gave you backstory on issues and campaign finances and stuff - all of which I've forgotten now. PM me if you have good suggestions and I'll add them under each candidates wikipedia link. I'll also link up youtube videos of each candidate speaking, as I did the last time I made this thread. PM me if you have a particular video that tickles you.

If you want to make an early prediction I'll keep track so that your glory will shine with piercing radiance and your street cred will fell mountains. Just Predict! [your candidate].

Predictions:

Mitt Romney - Speaker, WWmain00, Hachface, lonelyahava, Yougottawanna
Mike Huckabee - Dojango, CommunistCow, Gosling
Sarah Palin - Lord Yod, enlightenedbum, Thanatos, Pi-r8, DoctorArch, Octoparrot
Marc Rubio - Holyyakker
Haley Barbour - Optimus Zed, sterling3763
Chris Christie - Brian Krakow, Bacardi,
Santorum - Quid
Alan Keyes - Coinage
John Boehner - MyDcmbr
Ron Paul - gtrmp
Mitch Daniels - iTunesIsEvil
Rick Perry - AngelHedgie

Speaker

DEMOCRATS

President Barack Obama

Wikipedia: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barack_Obama
Speeches:

"Yes We Can" speech
Inauguration
Vision for the Economy

Speaker

REPUBLICANS

Herman Cain

Wikipedia: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herman_cain
Speeches:

"We the People" speech
Confronting Bill Clinton on Healthcare

Haley Barbour

Wikipedia: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Haley_barbour
Speeches:

Delivering GOP Address
Another Weekly GOP Address

Mitch Daniels

Wikipedia: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mitch_daniels
Speeches:

Speech at CPAC 2011 (Audio Only)
Interviewed on CSPAN Q&A

Newt Gingrich

Wikipedia: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Newt_gingrich
Speeches:

Victory or Death
Speech at CPAC 2011

Rudy Giuliani

Wikipedia: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rudy_Giuliani
Speeches:

"Tested. Ready. Now." Speech
Speech at CPAC 2007

Mike Huckabee

Wikipedia: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mike_huckabee
Speeches:

Speech at CPAC 2009 (Part 1)
Speech at CPAC 2009 (Part 2)
Speech at CPAC 2009 (Part 3)
Speech at CPAC 2009 (Part 4)

Jon Huntsman

Wikipedia: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jon_Huntsman,_Jr.
Speeches:

Commencement Address at Penn State 2010

Sarah Palin

Wikipedia: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sarah_palin
Speeches:

Speech at 2008 GOP Convention
Keynote Speech at Tea Party Convention

Gary Johnson

Wikipedia: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gary_E._Johnson
Speeches:

Speech at CPAC 2011
Interview (Part 1)
Interview (Part 2)
Interview (Part 3)

Tim Pawlenty

Wikipedia: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tim_pawlenty
Speeches:

Speech at 2008 Governor's Forum
Q&A Session at Family Leader's Presidential Lecture Series

Mitt Romney

Wikipedia: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mitt_romney
Speeches:

Speech at CPAC 2011
"Faith in America" Speech

Rick Santorum

Wikipedia: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rick_Santorum
Speeches:

Speech at CPAC (Part 1)
Speech at CPAC (Part 2)

Michele Bachmann

Wikipedia: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michele_Bachmann
Speeches:

Speech at CPAC (Part 1)
Speech at CPAC (Part 2)
Speech at Rally Against Healthcare Bill

Donald Trump

Wikipedia: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Trump
Speeches:

Speech at CPAC 2011 (Part 1)
Speech at CPAC 2011 (Part 2)
"You're Fired" Montage

Ron Paul

Wikipedia: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ron_Paul
Speeches:

Speech at CPAC 2011
Speech in San Francisco 9/2010

Lawndart

Oh, this is going to be fun.

Also, you should consider adding Michele Bachmann to the list, since she's about tied with Palin when it comes to "are they running for President in 2012?"

Malkor

How many of the potential republican candidates had a show or dedicated segment on Fox News? I'm willing to read up on everyone but Palin, Huck, Guilianni, and Newt (and Bachmann obviously).

The campaign trail is gonna be insane. CANT WAIT!

Speaker

Is Bachmann really in it?

Malkor

The whole "grass-roots Tea-Party" bus can't be ignored in a primary. She can't possibly do well in the general election, but I don't think they care.

Speaker

No, but I mean has she made any noise about running.

durandal4532

I'm saying John Thune gets the nomination because he looks like the picture that comes with the frame. Almost all the other candidates are old, weird, or also-rans. I mean if Rick Santorum still can't amount to much of anything in politics after this long of being "The guy who says godawful shit that he's calculated will make him popular" he's got no idea what he's doing.

ChillyWilly

This is going to be so entertaining to watch.

I wonder if Giuliani's platform is still going to be completely 9/11 related. Good Lord did that man get on my nerves back in '08.

OptimusZed

Speaker wrote: »

Is Bachmann really in it?

She's been bouncing in and out of Iowa. That's a pretty strong signal for a primary run.

nexuscrawler

Huntsman is like Mitt 2.0

OptimusZed

Bachmann is also a lot more invested in this cycle than Thune. As far as I know, the Thune talk is pure speculation at this point, but Bachmann is actively courting voters already.

nexuscrawler

i think Bachmann would be more of a vanity run to rile up the base and raise cash for the Tea Party. She wants to be like Ron Paul and have a absolutely rabid 10-15% base but theres no way she could actually win.

Speaker

OptimusZed wrote: »

Speaker wrote: »

Is Bachmann really in it?

She's been bouncing in and out of Iowa. That's a pretty strong signal for a primary run.

Fair enough, I'll add her in at lunch.

Forar

I'm calling this right now: Indecision 2012 is going to be absolutely awesome.

Speaker

I'm calling the primary right now for Mitt Romney.

Actually - let's start a list of predictions. I'll throw it in the OP.

I Predict! Mitt Romney

ChillyWilly

You know, I don't know a lot about Gary Johnson. But I like a Republican who reduced the size of the government in his state, left his state with a surplus on the way out of office and also had no problem using weed for pain control after a terrible accident.

Is there anything particularly terrible I should know about him?

EDIT: Predict! Barack Obama

Pretty sure he's staying in office.

Toldo

John Thune looks like a Kennedy.

Still,

Predict! Barack Obama

Ethan Smith

I really hope that Huntsman does well. The man seems like the kind of Republican I could vote for.

OptimusZed

I'm going to buck the trend and predict, given what we know now about who is running, that !Haley Barbour wins


the primary and is crushed by !Barack Obama in the general.

Speaking of hopeless presidential runs by subpar governors, has anyone heard from Bobby Jindal lately?

Hachface

I Predict! Sarah Palin and Mike Huckabee split the base. Mitt Romney takes it.

Forar

Have we done this Phalla somewhere? If not, it seems like an obvious choice.

I don't even want to play, I just want to see all the behind the scenes on which faction(s) get which powers and see it play out.

OptimusZed

I'm seeing lots of Romney love. For that, I have two words (and a mathematical symbol);

RomneyCare = ObamaCare

Holyyakker

Predict! Marco Rubio (R) - Made a great run in Florida (an important state) has good ties with the Hispanic voters (a huge chunk of the Democrat base) and has solid conservative values and family ties. Also is connected (loosely) with the Tea Party movement. (Though he might be holding off for 2016.)

OptimusZed

Rubio has basically coasted to where he is so far. And unless he's changed his policy on immigration, he's not going to be getting much hispanic support outside of states where that support is primarily cuban.

He could surprise me, but he hasn't been challenged or proven he can open himself up to a wider audience.

Malkor

Predict Dark Horse Candidate akin to Palin, but with actual credentials. It has to be someone young, and "hip", and exciting. So basically Republican-Obama, and no one we know just yet.

OptimusZed

Malkor wrote: »

Predict Dark Horse Candidate akin to Palin, but with actual credentials. It has to be someone young, and "hip", and exciting. So basically Republican-Obama, and no one we know just yet.

I'm just going to say it now;

Anyone that the D&D political crowd still has to google at this point will not win the Republican Primary.

There are dark horses in the pack already, but if they don't even have name recognition among the politically informed, they're just throwing money down a hole.

ronzo

Holyyakker wrote: »

Predict! Marco Rubio (R) - Made a great run in Florida (an important state) has good ties with the Hispanic voters (a huge chunk of the Democrat base) and has solid conservative values and family ties. Also is connected (loosely) with the Tea Party movement. (Though he might be holding off for 2016.)

I would guess holding off till 2016, so that he can complete a senate term and have actual legislation under his belt. I really dislike the guy though, I hope he runs now and blows his chances for later

override367

they could dig up someone even more of a wildcard and more unknown than Palin was, but it'd just go the same way after the media fell in love with them for no reason

Lord Yod

Primary prediction? !Sarah Palin

With hilarious debates as the result.

ronzo

I want to see Palin, so that we can get the reverse of the 1984 election map

WMain00

Prediction: Romney. The Republicans will choose him as the "safe" candidate. Overall though I predict Obama to continue. The sheer amount of differing people on the table for the Republican candidancy will make the GOP look indecisive.

galenblade

As always, Nate Silver steps in to prettyfy the primary field with graphs and data.

Captain Carrot

Nah. At this point, even the most hopeless Republican can count on Alaska, Idaho, Wyoming, Mississippi, Alabama, Oklahoma, and Utah.

Speaker

I enjoyed this graph.

Captain Carrot

Mormonism really seems more binary to me.

Speaker

Yeah, I took that to be partially based on bias against non-Baptists.

dojango

I Predict! Huckabee

Sure, he's a little nuts, but the fundies will probably be all the way behind him. Some sort of backroom deal with the tea partiers (he can probably make the right noises) will get him the support he needs after a grueling primary session. But he probably won't do too well in NH or Iowa, so he's gotta dominate the south.

OptimusZed

I think Huckabee's problem will be similar to Romney's, just in lesser amounts because he sounds like a Republican.

He's got some stuff from his days as governor that looks really bad in today's political climate, in a Republican Primary especially.

WMain00

Really the best we can hope out of this is that Bachmann and Palin are put in the same room together, to determine whether or not the sheer idiocy would create a black hole.