Like, it's a fun theory because it makes analysis easier if it's true and all that, but I just haven't seen anything that backs it up.
Here's a question. Why would premium fight the autoflag theory so hard if it was false? Here are two options.
1) He thought his best shot to survive was to make good pro-village arguments, and his legitimate opinion was that there was not good reason to believe the autoflag theory.
2) The village believing the autoflag theory, even if it was false, would disadvantage the mafia. The obvious explanation for this fact would be that in fact, phyphor and OL are not mafia, even though the mechanics of the game are such that our evidence does not guarantee that they aren't.
1) and 2) are consistent; that would give premium two reasons to act that way. In fact, 1) and 2) both being true are much more likely than 1) being true and 2) being false. If 1) were true and 2) were false, then premium's actions show that he believes the advantage to the mafia of maybe saving premium's life is more significant than the disadvantage of correcting the village's beliefs.
This last claim is quite unlikely because premium shouldn't think he had a really good shot of preventing his death by this line of argument. Unfortunately, this fact presents a third possibility:
3) premium believes he is doomed, and he is sowing chaos among the village.
I think this is pretty unlikely. If 3) is unlikely, then either some good combination of 1) and 2) are true, or the autoflag theory is true.
The upshot is that we should think OL and phyphor are probably not mafia, unless premium was just saying crazy bullshit yesterday for no particular reason.
Generalísimo de Fuerzas Armadas de la República Argentina
Day 1 Sabotages:
Mission 2: Mikey CTS, premium, or Retaba.
Mission 3: Baidol, GrimmyTOA, jdarksun, or ObiFett.
Mission 4: I needed a name to post., or OminousLozenge.
Day 2 Sabotages:
Mission 2: Baidol or OminousLozenge.
Mission 4: bliss101, Invictus, Phyphor, premium.
Day 3 Sabotages:
Mission 2: Baidol.
Mission 3: CesareB, Cythraul, OminousLozenge, Phyphor, or The Anonymous.
I know that Phyphor didn't sabotage Day 3's Mission 3. So our choices for saboteur are: CesareB, Cythraul, OminousLozenge, or The Anonymous.
CesareB has not been on a successful mission. Twice his missions failed due to mafia kills, and twice his missions were sabotaged.
Cythraul has not been on a successful mission. He sat out twice, and twice his missions were sabotaged.
OminousLozenge has not been on a successful mission. Every mission he participated in was sabotaged.
The Anonymous has not been on a successful mission. He sat out twice, had one mission fail due to mafia kills, and had one mission sabotaged.
Data on known mafia behavior:
* They only doubled up once (Day 4's Mission 3).
* They never sat out.
* They only went on one successful mission (Day 3's Mission 4).
Like, it's a fun theory because it makes analysis easier if it's true and all that, but I just haven't seen anything that backs it up.
Here's a question. Why would premium fight the autoflag theory so hard if it was false?
Actually, my autoflag theory was false. premium, as a member of the mafia, knew that. If he was a villager and was really so concerned about me working on a false premise, he would have sought a clarification from the host (which I did).
What's the honourable mention about? O_L seems fairly suspect as well.
OL was doubled up with INANTP on Day 1's Mission 4. The honorable mention bit is because we couldn't rule him out just because we had already found a mafia on that mission.
Co-located potential mafia with known mafia:
Day 1, Mission 4: INANTP with OminousLozenge.
Day 2, Mission 2: Baidol with OminousLozenge.
Day 4, Mission 3: Baidol and premium with CesareB, Cythraul, and OminousLozenge.
Like, it's a fun theory because it makes analysis easier if it's true and all that, but I just haven't seen anything that backs it up.
Here's a question. Why would premium fight the autoflag theory so hard if it was false?
Actually, my autoflag theory was false. premium, as a member of the mafia, knew that. If he was a villager and was really so concerned about me working on a false premise, he would have sought a clarification from the host (which I did).
Great! But my analysis above was premised on it being false, and as a result, we /still/ probably should think OL and phyphor are clean.
EDIT: else premium was fighting a theory that tended to exonerate a mafia member. Which would be crazy.
Invictus on
Generalísimo de Fuerzas Armadas de la República Argentina
Sat out night one. He acknowledged to Mill here that he'd been asked not to sit out (per the -- I thought widely acknowledged though it looks less clear on review -- change from having a bench to everyone taking a job), and still didn't pick a mission. He then tossed a last-minute vote on Mill.
Day two may have been forum instability -- he certainly claimed that to be the case immediately.
I guess what I'm saying is that his actions can be explained equally easily by him being mafia or borderline-inactive.
Ugh. The issue is that the other main suspect is OL, and he was co-located with known mafia on two of his four missions, and with Cythraul on his other two.
I'm actually more suspicious of CesareB (also co-located with Cythraul and OL on nights 3 and 4; very bandwagony vote record) than either of them -- though that may be my anti-Borgia prejudices showing through again.
Day 1
Cythraul picked up a couple votes on Day 1, but was never really a contender (one was early, one was late).
Same goes for The Anonymous - he picked up a late day vote from Baidol, which is a little interesting. INANTP and premium were briefly co-located on Mikey CTS, which is also who OL voted for.
The late-day push for Mill was interesting. It could have been driven votes away from Cythraul or The Anonymous.
Day 2
All of our suspects voted for Smasher Zombie Hero, except for The Anonymous, who didn't vote.
Day 3
Both Baidol and premium had pretty hefty wagons going.
Post #646, red by Farangu on Baidol (Baidol 1)
Post #648, red by Bliss 101 on premium (premium 1)
Post #662, red by OminousLozenge on Baidol (Baidol 2)
Post #663, red by Iron Weasel on Baidol (Baidol 3)
Post #666, red by The Anonymous on Baidol (Baidol 4)
Post #685, red by CesareB on Baidol (Baidol 5)
Post #692, red by CesareB on Iron Weasel (Iron Weasel 1, Baidol 4)
Post #693, lime by Iron Weasel on Baidol (Baidol 3)
Post #711, red by GrimmyTOA on premium (Premium 2)
Post #727, red by jdarksun on Farangu (Farangu 1)
Post #737, red by Mikey CTS on Farangu (Farangu 2)
Post #764, red by ObiFett on premium (Premium 3)
Post #770, red by ObiFett on Iron Weasel (IW 2, premium 2)
Post #777, red by Iron Weasel on Farangu (Farangu 3) <-- ties Baidol with Farangu
Post #781, red by Cythraul on Iron Weasel (IW 3) <-- ties Iron Weasel with Baidol and Farangu
Post #785, red by premium on Farangu (Farangu 4) <-- Farangu takes the lead
Post #786, red by CesareB on Farangu (Farangu 5, Iron Weasel 2) <-- cementing Farangu's lead
Post #787, red by Phyphor on Farangu (farangu 6)
Post #789, red by vertroue on Farangu (farangu 7)
Post #790, red by Retaba on Iron Weasel (Iron Weasel 3)
Post #792, red by kime on Farangu (Farangu 8)
Post #793, red by Baidol on Iron Weasel (Iron Weasel 4)
Post #796, red by Langly on Farangu (farangu 9)
Post #798, red by Cythraul on Farangu (farangu 10, Iron Weasel 3)
OL and T_A parked early votes on Baidol.
CesareB pulled off an early vote on Baidol to park it on Farangu (after using IW as an intermediary).
Cythraul wasn't terribly active, but placed a fascinatingly timed vote to create a three-way tie.
Posts #777-786 are fascinating. Check this page out.
Day 4
Post #841, red by kime on Baidol (Baidol 1)
Post #845, red by ObiFett on Baidol (Baidol 2)
Post #847, red by The Anonymous on Baidol (Baidol 3)
Post #850, red by Mikey CTS on Baidol (Baidol 4)
Post #851, red by premium on kime (kime 1)
Post #853, red by vertroue on kime (KIME 2)
Post #854, red by GrimmyTOA on kime (kime 3)
Post #856, red by Cythraul on kime (kime 4) <-- ties kime with Baidol
Post #857, red by Iron Weasel on Baidol (Baidol 5) <-- Baidol retakes the lead
Post #859, red by GrimmyTOA on Baidol (baidol 6)
Post #875, red by Retaba on Iron Weasel (Iron Weasel 1)
Post #876, red by Bliss 101 on Iron Weasel (Iron Weasel 2)
Post #877, red by OminousLozenge on vertroue (vertroue 1)
Post #882, red by Invictus on vertroue (vertroue 2)
Post #886, red by vertroue on CesareB (CesareB 1, kime 3)
Post #889, red by Cythraul on vertroue (Vertroue 3, kime 2)
Post #894, red by CesareB on vertroue (ventroue 4)
Post #904, red by Bliss 101 on vertroue (vertroue 5)
Post #911, red by Retaba on vertroue (Vertroue 6) <-- ties vertroue with Baidol
Post #913, red by Langly on vertroue (Vertroue 7) <-- vert takes the lead
Post #919, red by Phyphor on vertroue (vertroue 8)
Post #936, red by jdarksun on vertroue (vertroue 9)
Post #938, red by Baidol on vertroue (vertroue 10)
The Anonymous parks an early vote on Baidol. Again.
Cythraul continues tying people with Baidol.
OminousLozenge starts the vertwagon, which eventually goes on to save Baidol.
CesareB contributed to the vertwagon, but not at a particularly interesting juncture.
Day 5
Not a whole lot of vote action on Day 5. I stopped an early wagon on Baidol. GrimmyTOA started the premiumwagon, which OL had the second vote on. T_A joined shortly thereafter. Cythraul and CesareB joined towards the end.
The only dissenters were Obifett (who voted for myself), Baidol and I (who voted for Cythraul), and premium (who voted for Retaba). Mikey CTS had an early vote for Baidol that he never moved.
I'd been trying to get him killed like since day two.
My mafiadar would have been on fire this game, if only I'd learn to trust my own instincts. Too many failures in past phallas have taught me not to trust my own feelings, though.
I'd been trying to get him killed like since day two.
My mafiadar would have been on fire this game, if only I'd learn to trust my own instincts. Too many failures in past phallas have taught me not to trust my own feelings, though.
Who, precisely? OL or CesareB?
Generalísimo de Fuerzas Armadas de la República Argentina
Like, it's a fun theory because it makes analysis easier if it's true and all that, but I just haven't seen anything that backs it up.
Here's a question. Why would premium fight the autoflag theory so hard if it was false?
Actually, my autoflag theory was false. premium, as a member of the mafia, knew that. If he was a villager and was really so concerned about me working on a false premise, he would have sought a clarification from the host (which I did).
Great! But my analysis above was premised on it being false, and as a result, we /still/ probably should think OL and phyphor are clean.
EDIT: else premium was fighting a theory that tended to exonerate a mafia member. Which would be crazy.
Here's the thing though. By that time it was pretty obvious premium would be dying (and hence revealed) that night. So he knew that this conversation would be happening.
Obviously you can go around and around with these sorts of arguments. I think the standard procedure is to ignore what a mafia says in that sort of position.
Like, it's a fun theory because it makes analysis easier if it's true and all that, but I just haven't seen anything that backs it up.
Here's a question. Why would premium fight the autoflag theory so hard if it was false?
Actually, my autoflag theory was false. premium, as a member of the mafia, knew that. If he was a villager and was really so concerned about me working on a false premise, he would have sought a clarification from the host (which I did).
Great! But my analysis above was premised on it being false, and as a result, we /still/ probably should think OL and phyphor are clean.
EDIT: else premium was fighting a theory that tended to exonerate a mafia member. Which would be crazy.
Here's the thing though. By that time it was pretty obvious premium would be dying (and hence revealed) that night. So he knew that this conversation would be happening.
Obviously you can go around and around with these sorts of arguments. I think the standard procedure is to ignore what a mafia says in that sort of position.
I talk about this in the original analysis post, and basically I assess that he has definitely put it in the wine in front of me.
This assessment is, as you say, not perfect. But I think it's better than nothing.
Generalísimo de Fuerzas Armadas de la República Argentina
Cythraul. I liked it yesterday, and I like it today.
But, please guys. I'm clearly fallible. If at all possible, we need more discussion in here. We've had some good stuff so far, but it's really, really quiet for 12 players remaining.
I'm on my laptop, which sucks for a variety of reasons, and so I won't be offering my standard set of links. But looking through CesareB's post history, my summary is that it is positively scintillant.
He is clearly and deeply engaged throughout the game on both who we ought to vote out and who we ought to send on what missions. Historically, Cesare has been much less obviously engaged in games when he is mafia, and throughout this game he is constantly advocating for good ideas and picking at bad ideas in both realms.
If he is mafia, he has either just been doing good things for the village and hoping that would turn out okay for him (a real accomplishment in itself when one is mafia), or he has been a perfect chessmaster manipulating to an end he could not have foreseen.
This is not to say that he is definitely not mafia; his post history is merely one piece of our evidence, and his vote history is not nearly so good. But it is hard to imagine a better post history.
Generalísimo de Fuerzas Armadas de la República Argentina
How likely do we think it is that there are 4 mafia rather than 5? That balance will significantly affect our strategy, particularly whether we ought to kill two people in the suspicious group, or pick one form there and another from the rest.
Generalísimo de Fuerzas Armadas de la República Argentina
Putting a tentative on Cythraul. I have no idea what my schedule looks like for the rest of the day, and I don't want to hold things up if people reach a consensus.
Just looked through T_A's post history, and as far as I can tell, the only interesting thing, from the perspective of whether he's a mafia, that he did all game was get on Baidol as early as anybody.
Well, does that exonerate T_A or indict him? Fuck if I know. You might think that it's a significant point in his favor, but Baidol also gave up on hiding pretty easily, in the end. So it's..probably? a reason to think T_A is not mafia. Unless I'm wrong.
Generalísimo de Fuerzas Armadas de la República Argentina
Baidol, actually. OL and CesareB I've never been sure of.
No kidding! That was actually what my hunch vote was based on - who else looks as bad as me at this point. Cesare's mission history is just as screwed as mine, which I would find very suspicious. I'm actually surprised I'm still around. Between that and the fact that ChezzyB is on the record as a strong anti-bandwagon guy, yet he's been very bandwagon-y this time, I figured he has to be the guy. Invictus has me rethinking that, which has me rethinking Invictus now, hmmmm.
Been browsing the thread for leads we might have missed, but can't find anything beyond what I posted earlier today. My dunalist therefore consists of Cythraul and T_A, and the latter is based solely on the idea that Baidol might have covered for T_A's inactivity on the night they sabotaged the last mission.
OL is a mystery to me, although there is something ominous about him. CesareB is the least suspicious of the candidates, in my opinion, and given my track record that probably means he's mafia.
I get that a lot. It must be the way I part my hair.
So far my contributions have been following mission orders and being right about Baidol before anyone else. And since he, premium, and INANTP all contacted me to try and get me to admit to criminal behavior, and they're all UCs, I still maintain that there is some kind of self-incrimination mechanic. When did I float that theory, and when did the arrests drop off? Zactly.
I get that a lot. It must be the way I part my hair.
So far my contributions have been following mission orders and being right about Baidol before anyone else. And since he, premium, and INANTP all contacted me to try and get me to admit to criminal behavior, and they're all UCs, I still maintain that there is some kind of self-incrimination mechanic. When did I float that theory, and when did the arrests drop off? Zactly.
What did premium, INANTP, and Baidol ask you for, precisely?
And did they ask anyone else anything like it?
Generalísimo de Fuerzas Armadas de la República Argentina
I'm pretty sure INANTP asked everyone on day one. Baidol asked the shark food job people how we planned to do it, IW and I came up with a plan using typical bad mafioso double speak and innuendo. Baidol then asked, "So we're gonna kill a guy and feed him to the shark, right?" Premium asked me something like, "tonight's jobs are weird! Did you just sign up to feed someone to a shark?"
I'm pretty sure INANTP asked everyone on day one. Baidol asked the shark food job people how we planned to do it, IW and I came up with a plan using typical bad mafioso double speak and innuendo. Baidol then asked, "So we're gonna kill a guy and feed him to the shark, right?" Premium asked me something like, "tonight's jobs are weird! Did you just sign up to feed someone to a shark?"
Hm. Can anyone else add anything like this? I had no interactions of this type.
Generalísimo de Fuerzas Armadas de la República Argentina
Welp, we're boned if I'm your vote, and I've got nothing else to offer for defense. Can't rightly figure out who the mafia here is, so well done you bastard :P
And since he, premium, and INANTP all contacted me to try and get me to admit to criminal behavior, and they're all UCs, I still maintain that there is some kind of self-incrimination mechanic.
The Hook (i.e. important information relating to this specific game).
This game has two sides, with no neutral parties.
19 players did not call me on my bullshit
29 - 19 = 10. There are 11 players left, and 3 of the dead were mafia. Even if he futzed with the numbers a bit, they should have been able to execute more of us.
Of course, I didn't tell INANTP squat, so who knows. Could be!
Posts
Penny Arcade Rockstar Social Club / This is why I despise cyclists
Mission 1: blahmcblah, Cayrus (killed), Phyphor, The Anonymous. Failure, not enough participants (3<4). No data.
Mission 2: Farangu, KetBra, kime, Mikey CTS, premium, Retaba, vertroue. Failure, enough participants (7>4). Sabotage.
Mission 3: Baidol, GrimmyTOA, Iron Weasel, jdarksun, ObiFett. Failure, enough participants (5>4). Sabotage.
Mission 4: BradicusMaximus (killed), I needed a name to post., Langly, OminousLozenge, Smasher Zombie Hero. Failure, enough participants (4==4). Sabotage.
Mission 5: Assuran, CesareB, Locus, Mill (vote), TheRoadVirus (killed). Failure, not enough participants (3<4). No data.
Did not participate: bliss101, Cythraul, Invictus
Day 2
Mission 1: GrimmyTOA, I needed a name to post. (vig), KetBra, Langly, ObiFett, Retaba. Success! No data.
Mission 2: Baidol, Farangu, Iron Weasel, kime, OminousLozenge. Failure, enough participants (5>4). Sabotage.
Mission 3: Assuran (killed), blahmcblah (killed), CesareB, Locus (killed), Mikey CTS. Failure, not enough participants (2<3). No data.
Mission 4: bliss101, Invictus, Phyphor, premium, Smasher Zombie Hero (vote), vertroue. Failure, enough participants (5>4). Sabotage.
Did not participate: Cythraul, jdarksun, The Anonymous
Day 3
Mission 1: GrimmyTOA, Langly, ObiFett, Retaba. Success! No data.
Mission 2: Baidol, Farangu (vote), Iron Weasel, kime, vertroue. Failure, enough participants (4==4). Sabotage.
Mission 3: CesareB, Cythraul, OminousLozenge, Phyphor, The Anonymous. Failure, enough participants (5>3). Sabotage.
Mission 4: bliss101, jdarksun, Mikey CTS, premium. Success! No data.
Did not participate: Invictus, KetBra
Day 4
Mission 1: GrimmyTOA, Langly (vig fallout), ObiFett, Phyphor, Retaba. Success! No data.
Mission 2: Failure, not enough participants (0<5). No data.
Mission 3: Baidol, bliss101, CesareB, Cythraul, jdarksun, Mikey CTS, OminousLozenge, premium. Failure, enough participants (8>4). Sabotage.
Did not participate: Invictus, Iron Weasel (killed), KetBra (Inactivus), kime (vig), The Anonymous, vertroue (vote)
Day 5
No missions.
Did not participate: Baidol (vig), premium (vote)
Penny Arcade Rockstar Social Club / This is why I despise cyclists
Here's a question. Why would premium fight the autoflag theory so hard if it was false? Here are two options.
1) He thought his best shot to survive was to make good pro-village arguments, and his legitimate opinion was that there was not good reason to believe the autoflag theory.
2) The village believing the autoflag theory, even if it was false, would disadvantage the mafia. The obvious explanation for this fact would be that in fact, phyphor and OL are not mafia, even though the mechanics of the game are such that our evidence does not guarantee that they aren't.
1) and 2) are consistent; that would give premium two reasons to act that way. In fact, 1) and 2) both being true are much more likely than 1) being true and 2) being false. If 1) were true and 2) were false, then premium's actions show that he believes the advantage to the mafia of maybe saving premium's life is more significant than the disadvantage of correcting the village's beliefs.
This last claim is quite unlikely because premium shouldn't think he had a really good shot of preventing his death by this line of argument. Unfortunately, this fact presents a third possibility:
3) premium believes he is doomed, and he is sowing chaos among the village.
I think this is pretty unlikely. If 3) is unlikely, then either some good combination of 1) and 2) are true, or the autoflag theory is true.
The upshot is that we should think OL and phyphor are probably not mafia, unless premium was just saying crazy bullshit yesterday for no particular reason.
Confusion will be my epitaph
Confusion will be my epitaph
Confusion will be my epitaph
Mission 2: Mikey CTS, premium, or Retaba.
Mission 3: Baidol, GrimmyTOA, jdarksun, or ObiFett.
Mission 4: I needed a name to post., or OminousLozenge.
Day 2 Sabotages:
Mission 2: Baidol or OminousLozenge.
Mission 4: bliss101, Invictus, Phyphor, premium.
Day 3 Sabotages:
Mission 2: Baidol.
Mission 3: CesareB, Cythraul, OminousLozenge, Phyphor, or The Anonymous.
Day 4 Sabotages:
Mission 3: Baidol, bliss101, CesareB, Cythraul, jdarksun, Mikey CTS, OminousLozenge, premium.
I know that Phyphor didn't sabotage Day 3's Mission 3. So our choices for saboteur are: CesareB, Cythraul, OminousLozenge, or The Anonymous.
CesareB has not been on a successful mission. Twice his missions failed due to mafia kills, and twice his missions were sabotaged.
Cythraul has not been on a successful mission. He sat out twice, and twice his missions were sabotaged.
OminousLozenge has not been on a successful mission. Every mission he participated in was sabotaged.
The Anonymous has not been on a successful mission. He sat out twice, had one mission fail due to mafia kills, and had one mission sabotaged.
Data on known mafia behavior:
* They only doubled up once (Day 4's Mission 3).
* They never sat out.
* They only went on one successful mission (Day 3's Mission 4).
Penny Arcade Rockstar Social Club / This is why I despise cyclists
OL was doubled up with INANTP on Day 1's Mission 4. The honorable mention bit is because we couldn't rule him out just because we had already found a mafia on that mission.
Penny Arcade Rockstar Social Club / This is why I despise cyclists
Day 1, Mission 4: INANTP with OminousLozenge.
Day 2, Mission 2: Baidol with OminousLozenge.
Day 4, Mission 3: Baidol and premium with CesareB, Cythraul, and OminousLozenge.
Penny Arcade Rockstar Social Club / This is why I despise cyclists
Great! But my analysis above was premised on it being false, and as a result, we /still/ probably should think OL and phyphor are clean.
EDIT: else premium was fighting a theory that tended to exonerate a mafia member. Which would be crazy.
Day 1:
Mill: 6 kime, BradicusMaximus, I needed a name to post., Mikey CTS, Cythraul, Langly
Iron Weasel: 3 Assuran, Locus, Bliss 101
TheRoadVirus: 3 Phyphor, Smasher Zombie Hero, Mikey CTS, GrimmytOA
Cythraul: 2 Farangu, TheRoadVirus
Mikey CTS: 2 OminousLozenge, I needed a name to post., premium
The Anonymous: 2 blahmcblah, Baidol
Assuran: 1 Iron Weasel
Baidol: 1 Cayrus
blahmcblah: 1 KetBra
I needed a name to post.: 1 Mikey CTS, ObiFett
Invictus: 1 jdarksun
KetBra: 1 Retaba
Langly: 1 CesareB
ObiFett: 1 Invictus
Phyphor: 1 The Anonymous
OminousLozenge: 0 Assuran
Penny Arcade Rockstar Social Club / This is why I despise cyclists
Mill: 6 kime, BradicusMaximus, I needed a name to post., Mikey CTS, Cythraul, Langly
Iron Weasel: 3 Assuran, Locus, Bliss 101
TheRoadVirus: 3 Phyphor, Smasher Zombie Hero, Mikey CTS, GrimmyTOA
Cythraul: 2 Farangu, TheRoadVirus
Mikey CTS: 2 OminousLozenge, I needed a name to post., premium
The Anonymous: 2 blahmcblah, Baidol
Assuran: 1 Iron Weasel
Baidol: 1 Cayrus
blahmcblah: 1 KetBra
I needed a name to post.: 1 Mikey CTS, ObiFett
Invictus: 1 jdarksun
KetBra: 1 Retaba
Langly: 1 CesareB
ObiFett: 1 Invictus
Phyphor: 1 The Anonymous
OminousLozenge: 0 Assuran
Day 2:
Smasher Zombie Hero: 11 OminousLozenge, CesareB, Baidol, Langly, Cythraul, GrimmyTOA, Mikey CTS, kime, I needed a name to post., Phyphor, KetBra
I needed a name to post.: 2 jdarksun, blahmcblah, Locus
Iron Weasel: 2 Retaba, ObiFett
Mikey CTS: 2 blahmcblah, vertroue
OminousLozenge: 2 Bliss 101, Invictus
CesareB: 1 Smasher Zombie Hero
premium: 1 Farangu
Day 3:
Farangu: 10 jdarksun, Mikey CTS, Iron Weasel, premium, CesareB, Phyphor, vertroue, kime, Langly, Cythraul
Baidol: 3 Farangu, OminousLozenge, Iron Weasel, The Anonymous, CesareB
premium: 3 Bliss 101, GrimmyTOA, ObiFett
Iron Weasel: 2 CesareB, Retaba, Baidol
vertroue: 0 Retaba
Day 4:
vertroue: 10 OminousLozenge, Invictus, Cythraul, CesareB, Bliss 101, Retaba, Langly, Phyphor, jdarksun, Baidol
Baidol: 6 kime, ObiFett, The Anonymous, Mikey CTS, Iron Weasel, GrimmyTOA
CesareB: 1 vertroue
kime: 1 premium, GrimmyTOA, Cythraul
Iron Weasel: 0 Retaba, Bliss 101
Day 5:
premium: 8 GrimmyTOA, OminousLozenge, Bliss 101, The Anonymous, Invictus, Retaba, Baidol, Cythraul, CesareB
Baidol: 1 Bliss 101, The Anonymous, Mikey CTS, GrimmyTOA, OminousLozenge
Cythraul: 1 Baidol, jdarksun
jdarksun: 1 ObiFett
Retaba: 1 premium
Penny Arcade Rockstar Social Club / This is why I despise cyclists
Sat out night one. He acknowledged to Mill here that he'd been asked not to sit out (per the -- I thought widely acknowledged though it looks less clear on review -- change from having a bench to everyone taking a job), and still didn't pick a mission. He then tossed a last-minute vote on Mill.
Day two may have been forum instability -- he certainly claimed that to be the case immediately.
I guess what I'm saying is that his actions can be explained equally easily by him being mafia or borderline-inactive.
Ugh. The issue is that the other main suspect is OL, and he was co-located with known mafia on two of his four missions, and with Cythraul on his other two.
I'm actually more suspicious of CesareB (also co-located with Cythraul and OL on nights 3 and 4; very bandwagony vote record) than either of them -- though that may be my anti-Borgia prejudices showing through again.
Day 1
Cythraul picked up a couple votes on Day 1, but was never really a contender (one was early, one was late).
Same goes for The Anonymous - he picked up a late day vote from Baidol, which is a little interesting.
INANTP and premium were briefly co-located on Mikey CTS, which is also who OL voted for.
The late-day push for Mill was interesting. It could have been driven votes away from Cythraul or The Anonymous.
Day 2
All of our suspects voted for Smasher Zombie Hero, except for The Anonymous, who didn't vote.
Day 3
Both Baidol and premium had pretty hefty wagons going.
Post #646, red by Farangu on Baidol (Baidol 1)
Post #648, red by Bliss 101 on premium (premium 1)
Post #662, red by OminousLozenge on Baidol (Baidol 2)
Post #663, red by Iron Weasel on Baidol (Baidol 3)
Post #666, red by The Anonymous on Baidol (Baidol 4)
Post #685, red by CesareB on Baidol (Baidol 5)
Post #692, red by CesareB on Iron Weasel (Iron Weasel 1, Baidol 4)
Post #693, lime by Iron Weasel on Baidol (Baidol 3)
Post #711, red by GrimmyTOA on premium (Premium 2)
Post #727, red by jdarksun on Farangu (Farangu 1)
Post #737, red by Mikey CTS on Farangu (Farangu 2)
Post #764, red by ObiFett on premium (Premium 3)
Post #770, red by ObiFett on Iron Weasel (IW 2, premium 2)
Post #777, red by Iron Weasel on Farangu (Farangu 3) <-- ties Baidol with Farangu
Post #781, red by Cythraul on Iron Weasel (IW 3) <-- ties Iron Weasel with Baidol and Farangu
Post #785, red by premium on Farangu (Farangu 4) <-- Farangu takes the lead
Post #786, red by CesareB on Farangu (Farangu 5, Iron Weasel 2) <-- cementing Farangu's lead
Post #787, red by Phyphor on Farangu (farangu 6)
Post #789, red by vertroue on Farangu (farangu 7)
Post #790, red by Retaba on Iron Weasel (Iron Weasel 3)
Post #792, red by kime on Farangu (Farangu 8)
Post #793, red by Baidol on Iron Weasel (Iron Weasel 4)
Post #796, red by Langly on Farangu (farangu 9)
Post #798, red by Cythraul on Farangu (farangu 10, Iron Weasel 3)
OL and T_A parked early votes on Baidol.
CesareB pulled off an early vote on Baidol to park it on Farangu (after using IW as an intermediary).
Cythraul wasn't terribly active, but placed a fascinatingly timed vote to create a three-way tie.
Posts #777-786 are fascinating. Check this page out.
Day 4
Post #841, red by kime on Baidol (Baidol 1)
Post #845, red by ObiFett on Baidol (Baidol 2)
Post #847, red by The Anonymous on Baidol (Baidol 3)
Post #850, red by Mikey CTS on Baidol (Baidol 4)
Post #851, red by premium on kime (kime 1)
Post #853, red by vertroue on kime (KIME 2)
Post #854, red by GrimmyTOA on kime (kime 3)
Post #856, red by Cythraul on kime (kime 4) <-- ties kime with Baidol
Post #857, red by Iron Weasel on Baidol (Baidol 5) <-- Baidol retakes the lead
Post #859, red by GrimmyTOA on Baidol (baidol 6)
Post #875, red by Retaba on Iron Weasel (Iron Weasel 1)
Post #876, red by Bliss 101 on Iron Weasel (Iron Weasel 2)
Post #877, red by OminousLozenge on vertroue (vertroue 1)
Post #882, red by Invictus on vertroue (vertroue 2)
Post #886, red by vertroue on CesareB (CesareB 1, kime 3)
Post #889, red by Cythraul on vertroue (Vertroue 3, kime 2)
Post #894, red by CesareB on vertroue (ventroue 4)
Post #904, red by Bliss 101 on vertroue (vertroue 5)
Post #911, red by Retaba on vertroue (Vertroue 6) <-- ties vertroue with Baidol
Post #913, red by Langly on vertroue (Vertroue 7) <-- vert takes the lead
Post #919, red by Phyphor on vertroue (vertroue 8)
Post #936, red by jdarksun on vertroue (vertroue 9)
Post #938, red by Baidol on vertroue (vertroue 10)
The Anonymous parks an early vote on Baidol. Again.
Cythraul continues tying people with Baidol.
OminousLozenge starts the vertwagon, which eventually goes on to save Baidol.
CesareB contributed to the vertwagon, but not at a particularly interesting juncture.
Day 5
Not a whole lot of vote action on Day 5. I stopped an early wagon on Baidol. GrimmyTOA started the premiumwagon, which OL had the second vote on. T_A joined shortly thereafter. Cythraul and CesareB joined towards the end.
The only dissenters were Obifett (who voted for myself), Baidol and I (who voted for Cythraul), and premium (who voted for Retaba). Mikey CTS had an early vote for Baidol that he never moved.
Penny Arcade Rockstar Social Club / This is why I despise cyclists
My mafiadar would have been on fire this game, if only I'd learn to trust my own instincts. Too many failures in past phallas have taught me not to trust my own feelings, though.
Who, precisely? OL or CesareB?
Here's the thing though. By that time it was pretty obvious premium would be dying (and hence revealed) that night. So he knew that this conversation would be happening.
Obviously you can go around and around with these sorts of arguments. I think the standard procedure is to ignore what a mafia says in that sort of position.
I talk about this in the original analysis post, and basically I assess that he has definitely put it in the wine in front of me.
This assessment is, as you say, not perfect. But I think it's better than nothing.
But, please guys. I'm clearly fallible. If at all possible, we need more discussion in here. We've had some good stuff so far, but it's really, really quiet for 12 players remaining.
Penny Arcade Rockstar Social Club / This is why I despise cyclists
He is clearly and deeply engaged throughout the game on both who we ought to vote out and who we ought to send on what missions. Historically, Cesare has been much less obviously engaged in games when he is mafia, and throughout this game he is constantly advocating for good ideas and picking at bad ideas in both realms.
If he is mafia, he has either just been doing good things for the village and hoping that would turn out okay for him (a real accomplishment in itself when one is mafia), or he has been a perfect chessmaster manipulating to an end he could not have foreseen.
This is not to say that he is definitely not mafia; his post history is merely one piece of our evidence, and his vote history is not nearly so good. But it is hard to imagine a better post history.
Putting a tentative on Cythraul. I have no idea what my schedule looks like for the rest of the day, and I don't want to hold things up if people reach a consensus.
Just looked through T_A's post history, and as far as I can tell, the only interesting thing, from the perspective of whether he's a mafia, that he did all game was get on Baidol as early as anybody.
Well, does that exonerate T_A or indict him? Fuck if I know. You might think that it's a significant point in his favor, but Baidol also gave up on hiding pretty easily, in the end. So it's..probably? a reason to think T_A is not mafia. Unless I'm wrong.
No kidding! That was actually what my hunch vote was based on - who else looks as bad as me at this point. Cesare's mission history is just as screwed as mine, which I would find very suspicious. I'm actually surprised I'm still around. Between that and the fact that ChezzyB is on the record as a strong anti-bandwagon guy, yet he's been very bandwagon-y this time, I figured he has to be the guy. Invictus has me rethinking that, which has me rethinking Invictus now, hmmmm.
OL is a mystery to me, although there is something ominous about him. CesareB is the least suspicious of the candidates, in my opinion, and given my track record that probably means he's mafia.
So far my contributions have been following mission orders and being right about Baidol before anyone else. And since he, premium, and INANTP all contacted me to try and get me to admit to criminal behavior, and they're all UCs, I still maintain that there is some kind of self-incrimination mechanic. When did I float that theory, and when did the arrests drop off? Zactly.
What did premium, INANTP, and Baidol ask you for, precisely?
And did they ask anyone else anything like it?
Hm. Can anyone else add anything like this? I had no interactions of this type.
Confusion will be my epitaph
There's just one problem... 29 - 19 = 10. There are 11 players left, and 3 of the dead were mafia. Even if he futzed with the numbers a bit, they should have been able to execute more of us.
Of course, I didn't tell INANTP squat, so who knows. Could be!
Penny Arcade Rockstar Social Club / This is why I despise cyclists