I know China turned their ships (of coal?) a few weeks ago, has that continued? Have any of the other sanctions had any effect?
Considering that NK just conducted another medium-range missile test today, it would seem any "next steps taken" were ineffective. Wonder how this one's gonna turn out...
That's why they have me so concerned. There's no good way to deal with them. They largely ignore sanctions, and any military action is pretty much off the table because of the missles they have pointing at our allies in SK and Japan. How do you deal with a country that is largely self destructive? I know our old strategy was to just ignore them, but since Kim Jong-un took over that strategy mostly means we sit back and watch while they develop missles with the goal of being able to reach us (while openly stating as much).
I know China turned their ships (of coal?) a few weeks ago, has that continued? Have any of the other sanctions had any effect?
Considering that NK just conducted another medium-range missile test today, it would seem any "next steps taken" were ineffective. Wonder how this one's gonna turn out...
That's why they have me so concerned. There's no good way to deal with them. They largely ignore sanctions, and any military action is pretty much off the table because of the missles they have pointing at our allies in SK and Japan. How do you deal with a country that is largely self destructive? I know our old strategy was to just ignore them, but since Kim Jong-un took over that strategy mostly means we sit back and watch while they develop missles with the goal of being able to reach us (while openly stating as much).
Trump's saber rattling ignited this, that's why ignoring them worked in the past. We went through with this post-Clinton when NK restarted their missile program after W. put them on the Axis of Evil. Ignore them, de-esclate and tensions will drop.
edit: Take Trump away, settle them down and everything goes back to previous status quo.
I know China turned their ships (of coal?) a few weeks ago, has that continued? Have any of the other sanctions had any effect?
Considering that NK just conducted another medium-range missile test today, it would seem any "next steps taken" were ineffective. Wonder how this one's gonna turn out...
That's why they have me so concerned. There's no good way to deal with them. They largely ignore sanctions, and any military action is pretty much off the table because of the missles they have pointing at our allies in SK and Japan. How do you deal with a country that is largely self destructive? I know our old strategy was to just ignore them, but since Kim Jong-un took over that strategy mostly means we sit back and watch while they develop missles with the goal of being able to reach us (while openly stating as much).
Trump's saber rattling ignited this, that's why ignoring them worked in the past. We went through with this post-Clinton when NK restarted their missile program after W. put them on the Axis of Evil. Ignore them, de-esclate and tensions will drop.
edit: Take Trump away, settle them down and everything goes back to previous status quo.
This IS the status quo
A trap is for fish: when you've got the fish, you can forget the trap. A snare is for rabbits: when you've got the rabbit, you can forget the snare. Words are for meaning: when you've got the meaning, you can forget the words.
I know China turned their ships (of coal?) a few weeks ago, has that continued? Have any of the other sanctions had any effect?
Considering that NK just conducted another medium-range missile test today, it would seem any "next steps taken" were ineffective. Wonder how this one's gonna turn out...
That's why they have me so concerned. There's no good way to deal with them. They largely ignore sanctions, and any military action is pretty much off the table because of the missles they have pointing at our allies in SK and Japan. How do you deal with a country that is largely self destructive? I know our old strategy was to just ignore them, but since Kim Jong-un took over that strategy mostly means we sit back and watch while they develop missles with the goal of being able to reach us (while openly stating as much).
Trump's saber rattling ignited this, that's why ignoring them worked in the past. We went through with this post-Clinton when NK restarted their missile program after W. put them on the Axis of Evil. Ignore them, de-esclate and tensions will drop.
edit: Take Trump away, settle them down and everything goes back to previous status quo.
I don't think that Trump has really affected North Korea's global strategy much, if at all. They were previously ignoring global sanctions and developing their own weapons plans, and they are still doing so.
I am a bit surprised that they fired a missile towards Russia, however. In the past they haven't openly antagonized Russia, because Russia wouldn't care as much (if at all) if North Korea brought down South Korea and damaged Japan as it imploded.
I know China turned their ships (of coal?) a few weeks ago, has that continued? Have any of the other sanctions had any effect?
Considering that NK just conducted another medium-range missile test today, it would seem any "next steps taken" were ineffective. Wonder how this one's gonna turn out...
That's why they have me so concerned. There's no good way to deal with them. They largely ignore sanctions, and any military action is pretty much off the table because of the missles they have pointing at our allies in SK and Japan. How do you deal with a country that is largely self destructive? I know our old strategy was to just ignore them, but since Kim Jong-un took over that strategy mostly means we sit back and watch while they develop missles with the goal of being able to reach us (while openly stating as much).
Trump's saber rattling ignited this, that's why ignoring them worked in the past. We went through with this post-Clinton when NK restarted their missile program after W. put them on the Axis of Evil. Ignore them, de-esclate and tensions will drop.
edit: Take Trump away, settle them down and everything goes back to previous status quo.
This IS the status quo
That was the status quo, it isn't now. America getting into a pissing contest with NK is not what the procedure is meant to be, even W. learnt to knock that shit off. The entire point of the status quo is to de-esclate the situation, Trump is pressuring them into a dick measuring contest. The heat's only died down lately because he's been distracted - once their back on Trump's radar this is game on.
I know China turned their ships (of coal?) a few weeks ago, has that continued? Have any of the other sanctions had any effect?
Considering that NK just conducted another medium-range missile test today, it would seem any "next steps taken" were ineffective. Wonder how this one's gonna turn out...
That's why they have me so concerned. There's no good way to deal with them. They largely ignore sanctions, and any military action is pretty much off the table because of the missles they have pointing at our allies in SK and Japan. How do you deal with a country that is largely self destructive? I know our old strategy was to just ignore them, but since Kim Jong-un took over that strategy mostly means we sit back and watch while they develop missles with the goal of being able to reach us (while openly stating as much).
Trump's saber rattling ignited this, that's why ignoring them worked in the past. We went through with this post-Clinton when NK restarted their missile program after W. put them on the Axis of Evil. Ignore them, de-esclate and tensions will drop.
edit: Take Trump away, settle them down and everything goes back to previous status quo.
I don't think that Trump has really affected North Korea's global strategy much, if at all. They were previously ignoring global sanctions and developing their own weapons plans, and they are still doing so.
I am a bit surprised that they fired a missile towards Russia, however. In the past they haven't openly antagonized Russia, because Russia wouldn't care as much (if at all) if North Korea brought down South Korea and damaged Japan as it imploded.
This should be a concern, and a huge sign that things are getting worse not back to your regularly scheduled program.
Like Bush kinda maybe blew up the Sunshine policy, but on the other hand NK has had a long history of starting to head towards reconciliation only to vacillate and back out over and over again anyway.
NK is doing what NK has done for the last 20 years, Trump isn't changing that. Internal politics demand that the US is an aggressive threat, so whether the US actually is or not is kind of a moot point, to be honest.
Despite Trump's rhetoric his largest change in policy so far is largely leaving things up to the Chinese.
Kana on
A trap is for fish: when you've got the fish, you can forget the trap. A snare is for rabbits: when you've got the rabbit, you can forget the snare. Words are for meaning: when you've got the meaning, you can forget the words.
Like Bush kinda maybe blew up the Sunshine policy, but on the other hand NK has had a long history of starting to head towards reconciliation only to vacillate and back out over and over again anyway.
NK is doing what NK has done for the last 20 years, Trump isn't changing that. Internal politics demand that the US is an aggressive threat, so whether the US actually is or not is kind of a moot point, to be honest.
Despite Trump's rhetoric his largest change in policy so far is largely leaving things up to the Chinese.
He didn't "kind of" do that, when NK is put on the Axis of Evil check list post-9/11 it's the sort of thing that makes them want to get their hate on. This was an extremely bad thing to do, thankfully this was dialed down over the years and it never became a hot spot over dick waving like we've been going through with Trump.
Sure he is, sure they're doing similar things but it's not that that's the problem - it's the escalation. Do you recall them doing things like to this degree with Obama or Bill Clinton? Or even W.? I don't. Sure there's the occasional saber rattling, that goes without saying, what Trump was doing goes beyond that.
After ratcheting up tension in the regions with his bluster that they finally had to step in to prevent him accidentally starting WW 3. Had he not done this the Chinese wouldn't have had to act overtly against NK in a non-standard way. Usually China's whistling in the distance while NK goes off with its impotent threats or they make some wrist slapping noises that amount to nothing.
I am a bit surprised that they fired a missile towards Russia, however. In the past they haven't openly antagonized Russia, because Russia wouldn't care as much (if at all) if North Korea brought down South Korea and damaged Japan as it imploded.
Considering the fragile state of the Russian economy, and its very high (and in the opinion of many in the Russian public, dangerous) dependence on Chinese investment and loans--which in turn link to Chinese trade with South Korea (you know, Seoul's largest trade partner, twice that of the United States), and repeated Russian attempts to bypass China by making South Korea a partner with the Eurasian Union, that is incredibly, almost comically, mistaken.
Vladimir Putin hasn't personally visited Shinzo Abe a dozen times because he likes the flight. He's done it because he and Abe are closer to full normalization relations between Moscow and Tokyo since before the collapse of the USSR and Russian independence, and (many would suspect) is privately worried that the United States can easily sway Abe to scrub what very gradual progress they've made if Abe is convinced that the disputed territories issue isn't worth his time.
Putting aside past cases of North Korean/Russian antagonism since 1992, Moscow wants to arbitrate a settlement between North and South Korea because 1) it would look good if they could, the same way the Soviet Union bringing peace to India and Pakistan looked very good for it as long as it lasted 2) It would leave both sides indebted to them and 3) the United States gave up trying to do that. A unified Korea under Seoul's rule (as Russia and the rest of the world presumes would be the outcome) is more than worth the trade off. Which is why Russia keeps trying to facilitate meetings between the Kims and different Korean presidencies, with no success.
Moscow may never succeed with that rather fanciful goal, but the notion that they couldn't care less is completely divorced from reality. South Korea actually has purchased more war hardware from Russia in the last 20 years than North Korea has, starting with debt repayments and moving on to normal sales--but then again, it's really easy to beat "Almost nothing at all, not counting illegal copies and reverse-engineering."
As long as the Kim dynasty keeps chugging along and producing and grooming the heirs, I don't see the issues with North and South Korea going away.
If you believe Pres. Carter, bad timing was what kept us from a unified coalition government (which, let's be real, would eventually be controlled entirely by Seoul anyway) taking hold in the 1990s, with the softening of South Korea's position and bringing Kim Il-Sung to the negotiating table.
It's a convincing argument, at least in part. Personally, I don't think the Kim dynasty itself necessarily needs to continue--there's a possibility, even if it is a lessened one, of a military clique closely replacing the Kim's for one generation (though longer is less likely), not wholly unlike the military cliques that took hold after the death of the dictator in South Korea decades earlier.
But that's just speculation on my part. In a few years, "Bombing literally every building in North Korea to rubble, then launching an invasion and occupation," will be off the table, regardless of China's objections or lack of it.
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surrealitychecklonely, but not unloveddreaming of faulty keys and latchesRegistered Userregular
apparently terrorist activity in marawi right now? reports of gunmen etc though not much clarity
This is one of those buried deep in the Japanese news but finally got out. The bill is basically a huge clampdown on a lot of activities in the name of stopping terrorism. And is another step to allowing Abe's government to implement a lot more control over Japanese society.
This is one of those buried deep in the Japanese news but finally got out. The bill is basically a huge clampdown on a lot of activities in the name of stopping terrorism. And is another step to allowing Abe's government to implement a lot more control over Japanese society.
This is a little odd to see in the article: "The conservative prime minister has made no secret of his desire to change Article 9, which bars Japan from maintaining a “war potential” and renounces the use of force except to defend itself when it comes under direct attack."
I mean, that's been the conservative argument for decades, but its not actually supported by the text itself and I wouldn't be surprised if a number of the groups protesting the new bill wouldn't agree with that summary.
Aspiring sincerely to an international peace based on justice and order, the Japanese people forever renounce war as a sovereign right of the nation and the threat or use of force as means of settling international disputes.
In order to accomplish the aim of the preceding paragraph, land, sea, and air forces, as well as other war potential, will never be maintained. The right of belligerency of the state will not be recognized.
The general interpretation is the Japanese can defend themselves if they are attacked directly. They may not use war for any other means. Basically they can be declared war against but not declared war on. The general reading for years now is that the Japanese will not maintain the ability to project power and have a limited national guard.
Technically the JSDF is kind of illegal if you do a word for word reading but since they have no official projection capability and the universe doesn't exist in a way where Japan could have 0 military forces for defense especially considering some post war periods it exists.
I mean if you are super literal the Japanese if war is declared and are invaded should not fight back as they have no sovereign right of self defense through violence in the writing. But in general and with in international norms it is considered that the Japanese gave up the right to declare offensive operations as a sovereign state not the self defense principal.
The very act of sending mind cleaning ships to Iraq has caused huge backlash issues in Japan though technically they were committing no armed troops to the actual invasion.
The complexity of Article 9 is interesting because it is a sovereign state giving up a right in a way no other state has before or since.
I know China turned their ships (of coal?) a few weeks ago, has that continued? Have any of the other sanctions had any effect?
Considering that NK just conducted another medium-range missile test today, it would seem any "next steps taken" were ineffective. Wonder how this one's gonna turn out...
That's why they have me so concerned. There's no good way to deal with them. They largely ignore sanctions, and any military action is pretty much off the table because of the missles they have pointing at our allies in SK and Japan. How do you deal with a country that is largely self destructive? I know our old strategy was to just ignore them, but since Kim Jong-un took over that strategy mostly means we sit back and watch while they develop missles with the goal of being able to reach us (while openly stating as much).
Trump's saber rattling ignited this, that's why ignoring them worked in the past. We went through with this post-Clinton when NK restarted their missile program after W. put them on the Axis of Evil. Ignore them, de-esclate and tensions will drop.
edit: Take Trump away, settle them down and everything goes back to previous status quo.
The previous status quo resulted in them developing nuclear weapons while consistently lying about it and making false concessions to the US/allies in return for aide over the course of 30-odd years. What's so good about that, and how would a return to it in any way prevent them developing ballistic missile technology?
Aspiring sincerely to an international peace based on justice and order, the Japanese people forever renounce war as a sovereign right of the nation and the threat or use of force as means of settling international disputes.
In order to accomplish the aim of the preceding paragraph, land, sea, and air forces, as well as other war potential, will never be maintained. The right of belligerency of the state will not be recognized.
The general interpretation is the Japanese can defend themselves if they are attacked directly. They may not use war for any other means. Basically they can be declared war against but not declared war on. The general reading for years now is that the Japanese will not maintain the ability to project power and have a limited national guard.
Technically the JSDF is kind of illegal if you do a word for word reading but since they have no official projection capability and the universe doesn't exist in a way where Japan could have 0 military forces for defense especially considering some post war periods it exists.
I mean if you are super literal the Japanese if war is declared and are invaded should not fight back as they have no sovereign right of self defense through violence in the writing. But in general and with in international norms it is considered that the Japanese gave up the right to declare offensive operations as a sovereign state not the self defense principal.
The very act of sending mind cleaning ships to Iraq has caused huge backlash issues in Japan though technically they were committing no armed troops to the actual invasion.
The complexity of Article 9 is interesting because it is a sovereign state giving up a right in a way no other state has before or since.
You're not telling me anything I don't already know.
But what you describe as the "general interpretation" and the "general reading" isn't just a neutral reading of the text; it's the conservative interpretation, which was essentially made up out of whole cloth when MacArthur told Yoshida to create the National Police Reserve during the Korean War (and even then was initially justified through the UN Charter rather than anything in the constitution itself). The Socialists and Communists fought against that interpretation for decades before finally becoming politically irrelevant. And for decent reason, since there are plenty of documents from the drafting of the constitution which make reference to Japan being dependent on the UN and the world for its defense. Yoshida himself even explicitly rejected Japan having a right to self-defense at the time.
I thus found it odd, given the article's pretty critical stance on Abe, that the self-defense exception is stated as if it were explicit rather than just the predominant interpretation, especially as it then goes on to reference the fact that the desire to make the constitutionality of the SDF explicit is one of the reasons Abe has given for amending Article 9.
Trump calls Kim Jong Un a ‘madman with nuclear weapons,’ according to transcript of Duterte call
Trump’s call with Duterte, during which he extended an invitation to visit him at the White House, was met with skepticism from some foreign policy analysts and human rights groups. Since taking office in June, Duterte has moved to hedge on the Philippines’ long-standing defense alliance with the United States by establishing closer relations with China. And his administration has overseen a brutal extrajudicial campaign that has resulted in the killings of thousands of suspected drug dealers.
Trump has not spoken out against that strategy, and in their call he praised Duterte for doing an “unbelievable job on the drug problem.”
“Many countries have the problem, we have the problem, but what a great job you are doing and I just wanted to call and tell you that,” Trump said, according to the transcript.
After Duterte replied that drugs are the “scourge of my nation now and I have to do something to preserve the Filipino nation,” Trump appeared to take a swipe at his predecessor, Barack Obama, who had canceled a bilateral meeting with Duterte after the Philippines leader insulted him.
“I understand that and fully understand that and I think we had a previous president who did not understand that,” Trump said.
Trump began the call by telling Duterte, “You don’t sleep much, you’re just like me,” before quickly pivoting to the strongman’s drug war.
“I just wanted to congratulate you because I am hearing of the unbelievable job on the drug problem,” Trump told Duterte at the beginning of their call, according to the document. “Many countries have the problem, we have a problem, but what a great job you are doing and I just wanted to call and tell you that.”
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I'm literally at the airport leaving Manila right now - MIL was in the hospital, wife is staying a little longer just in case. Shit :-/
Stay safe. I'm actually feeling better that martial law was declared for it. My first thought was Duterte calling martial law to deal with the drug problem, but this is a legitimate reason for using it.
Yeah, I had the same initial reaction - "oh geez is he really...oh shit." I'm still learning about the history, but it seems that martial law has a very negative connotation from history, so there's limits on what is powers are now, and it requires a legislative act to renew after 60 days.
My family is in Visayas and I'm in Luzon right now so it doesn't directly impact us, is just one of those things which you don't expect to happen and catches you off guard when it does.
E: also, because it wasn't apparent from the previous posts, apparently order has been restored in Marawi. Not all details /info available yet, because they've asked the news to not post up everything as it might help the opposing side.
What's actually more amazing to me than what Trump said - it's every bit as awful as you would expect - is that a President's actual transcript with a foreign leader was leaked.
That's crazy! That kind of shit almost never gets leaked, that's someone who's so pissed off they're willing to go to jail.
A trap is for fish: when you've got the fish, you can forget the trap. A snare is for rabbits: when you've got the rabbit, you can forget the snare. Words are for meaning: when you've got the meaning, you can forget the words.
Yeah, I had the same initial reaction - "oh geez is he really...oh shit." I'm still learning about the history, but it seems that martial law has a very negative connotation from history, so there's limits on what is powers are now, and it requires a legislative act to renew after 60 days.
That's cause the last president I think that declared Martial Law was Marcos, it lasted for 20 years and was pretty much his basis for dictatorship.
Honestly, I can understand declaring martial law in that specific area right now, I just don't trust Duterte
In about 1.5 hours Taiwan's Constitutional Court will issue a decision on the constitutionality of same-sex marriage. The general consensus is that they will rule that gay people have the constitutional right to marry, but punt the question of how they should be given that right (through an amendment to the existing civil code, or through a "separate but equal" law) back to the legislature.
The court has also announced that its decision will be made available in English in addition to Chinese, which gives me some hope because surely it's not going to actively solicit international attention like this only to slap LGBT people in the face.
And the Court rules that the ban on same-sex marriage is unconstitutional! The legislature now has a two-year deadline to pass either an amendment to the existing law or a new law to protect equal marriage rights.
Man, when did the jihadists in the Philippines get powerful enough to push into a provincial capital? Al-Jazeera says they beheaded the local police chief, staged a jailbreak, burned down a church, and took a priest and churchgoers hostage, and that they have 100 fighters present (I saw "dozens" elsewhere). Is the Filipino state just weak in that province, or was it just a well-executed surprise attack, or what?
Edit - and while any state would respond forcefully to this, I fear what the government under Duterte will do in Mindanao
Man, when did the jihadists in the Philippines get powerful enough to push into a provincial capital? Al-Jazeera says they beheaded the local police chief, staged a jailbreak, burned down a church, and took a priest and churchgoers hostage, and that they have 100 fighters present (I saw "dozens" elsewhere). Is the Filipino state just weak in that province, or was it just a well-executed surprise attack, or what?
Edit - and while any state would respond forcefully to this, I fear what the government under Duterte will do in Mindanao
The Southern Islands of the Philippines have had on and off civil unrest for ages. And this is just one in a long line of events. The fact that it was tied to ISIS is the new part.
I am hoping Duterte isn't able to pull a Marcos with the checks put in place but in the world we live in just expect the worse possible outcome.
And the Court rules that the ban on same-sex marriage is unconstitutional! The legislature now has a two-year deadline to pass either an amendment to the existing law or a new law to protect equal marriage rights.
For however much longer it lasts, I'm glad Taiwan is a country where newspapers are still a thing. That's worth mentioning.
As Pipe Dreamer mentioned, the burden now goes to the Legislative Yuan, which has tabled (sort of) marriage law proposals from the ruling DPP, the minority NPP and the former-ruling KMT. All three proposals, as I understand it, are modifications to the civil marriage code, rather than new laws, and their differences are subtle involving the language to be used for what would be the next issue down the line were they to pass, adoption of children by gay couples.
As for what proposal is adopted (or when), is completely in the air. Despite the "tone" of her campaign, Pres. Tsai would has technically tabled the matter up to this point, avoiding it in policy talks (though the party claim is correct that she did not campaign on behalf of gay marriage, but simply came out strong in favor for it during the race, which in retrospect sounds more opportunistic than it probably was). The president's feelings on the subject are clear even if she has not moved much on the matter, but the rest of the DPP itself is increasingly divided: though it is certainly the small-l liberal party, it has styled itself the party of Christian Taiwan, particularly Presbyterian Taiwanese, whom where deeply involved in its initial founding with the legalization of other political parties and the end of the KMT dictatorship. it was Chen-era DPP Vice President Annette Lu, after all, self-styled founder of modern Taiwanese feminism, who called AIDS God's punishment on the gay community (that's one thing no sitting KMT VP has every said, even when the government was arresting the country's most famous gay rights advocate, Chi Chia-wei, on trumped-up charges). The DPP's relationship with this is fairly complicated.
On the other side of the aisle, the more politically conservative KMT's proposal was penned by MP Jason Hsu, without a doubt the "young face" of the party. Though having long-term conservative appeal, the party is not beholder to Christian or South rural Taiwanese interests, increasing the bastion against gay marriage and the most counterprotests. The KMT is increasingly well known for being flexible on anything but the issue of China--despite their historical pro-business stance, they came out faster in favor of organized labor this year than the DPP did, for example. Hsu, who came out of the anti-KMT and anti-Chinese Sunflower Protests of last year also endorsed the DPP resolution (though preferring his own obviously) as acceptable, though that really doesn't affect party policy as far as I can tell.
The very recent New Power Party (which came out of the Sunflower Protests as well), which is populist to the DPP's liberal/neoliberal, also put out its proposal, considered the most radical (in its subtle way), and also came out more publicly, draping rainbow banners on its party headquarters. Curiously, like the KMT's bill, the NPP's functions on removing "gendered" language throughout the civil code text (i.e. replace "father" with "parent), whereas the DPP does not. The NPP controls a very small number of seats in the parliament, so they don't have much clout to start with.
The Taiwanese LGBTQ community has publicly favored an entirely new law on occasion, but it doesn't look like that will happen presently.
Man, when did the jihadists in the Philippines get powerful enough to push into a provincial capital? Al-Jazeera says they beheaded the local police chief, staged a jailbreak, burned down a church, and took a priest and churchgoers hostage, and that they have 100 fighters present (I saw "dozens" elsewhere). Is the Filipino state just weak in that province, or was it just a well-executed surprise attack, or what?
Edit - and while any state would respond forcefully to this, I fear what the government under Duterte will do in Mindanao
The Southern Islands of the Philippines have had on and off civil unrest for ages. And this is just one in a long line of events. The fact that it was tied to ISIS is the new part.
I am hoping Duterte isn't able to pull a Marcos with the checks put in place but in the world we live in just expect the worse possible outcome.
Yup, extremists have always been a major threat in Mindanao, with the MNLF, MILF (yes that really is what they call themselves, it stands for Moro Islamic Liberation Front), and Abu Sayyaf. But yeah, the further from the major cities and destinations you go, the weaker the hold of the state generally is.
Wow, glad MILF didn't hit the big time, because trying to screen people's browsing history to find potential terrorist recruits would have been a pain and a half...
The previous status quo resulted in them developing nuclear weapons while consistently lying about it and making false concessions to the US/allies in return for aide over the course of 30-odd years. What's so good about that, and how would a return to it in any way prevent them developing ballistic missile technology?
Because it allowed years to delay them getting more powerful, there was added time to let the regime fall apart on its own and we don't want to start WW III. China is finally pivoting, but it wasn't alway the case and a big reason they're doing it is to cut off Trump from actively attacking NK from his dick measuring contest with King Jong Un. There's a good reason why the world was happy to not get into a firefight with NK, and it wasn't because they wouldn't win.
If tensions were like this years back with America we'd have already had a hot war with NK by now.
The previous status quo resulted in them developing nuclear weapons while consistently lying about it and making false concessions to the US/allies in return for aide over the course of 30-odd years. What's so good about that, and how would a return to it in any way prevent them developing ballistic missile technology?
Because it allowed years to delay them getting more powerful, there was added time to let the regime fall apart on its own and we don't want to start WW III. China is finally pivoting, but it wasn't alway the case and a big reason they're doing it is to cut off Trump from actively attacking NK from his dick measuring contest with King Jong Un. There's a good reason why the world was happy to not get into a firefight with NK, and it wasn't because they wouldn't win.
If tensions were like this years back with America we'd have already had a hot war with NK by now.
When I was first came to the United States, air strikes on North Korea (and then...something something profit?) were publicly "on the table", at least as far as news coverage was concerned. Certainly it was buoyed by the confidence that, at that precise time, North Korean air defense and militarization was as weak as it was ever going to be, adding to a sense of urgency.
The primary international opposition came in the form of Russia and China screaming (in a very quiet, scared manner) for the US not to do it.
Granted, it didn't happen, but Russia and China also screamed at the US not to invade Iraq, and a fat lot of good that did.
The previous status quo resulted in them developing nuclear weapons while consistently lying about it and making false concessions to the US/allies in return for aide over the course of 30-odd years. What's so good about that, and how would a return to it in any way prevent them developing ballistic missile technology?
Because it allowed years to delay them getting more powerful, there was added time to let the regime fall apart on its own and we don't want to start WW III. China is finally pivoting, but it wasn't alway the case and a big reason they're doing it is to cut off Trump from actively attacking NK from his dick measuring contest with King Jong Un. There's a good reason why the world was happy to not get into a firefight with NK, and it wasn't because they wouldn't win.
If tensions were like this years back with America we'd have already had a hot war with NK by now.
Don't get me wrong, a hot war with NK is unthinkable. But the fact that their nuclear weapons program was successful at all is a major failing of our foreign policy. I just don't think the type relationship that led to that end should be a goal anyone is aiming for.
The previous status quo resulted in them developing nuclear weapons while consistently lying about it and making false concessions to the US/allies in return for aide over the course of 30-odd years. What's so good about that, and how would a return to it in any way prevent them developing ballistic missile technology?
Because it allowed years to delay them getting more powerful, there was added time to let the regime fall apart on its own and we don't want to start WW III. China is finally pivoting, but it wasn't alway the case and a big reason they're doing it is to cut off Trump from actively attacking NK from his dick measuring contest with King Jong Un. There's a good reason why the world was happy to not get into a firefight with NK, and it wasn't because they wouldn't win.
If tensions were like this years back with America we'd have already had a hot war with NK by now.
Don't get me wrong, a hot war with NK is unthinkable. But the fact that their nuclear weapons program was successful at all is a major failing of our foreign policy. I just don't think the type relationship that led to that end should be a goal anyone is aiming for.
The rub of it is that, unfortunately, because of the fucked up circumstances that brought us here in the first place, the success of Pyongyang's nuclear program will ultimately go a long way to preventing the hottest of hot wars--a total invasion of North Korea with the goal of removing the government and military, Iraq-style.
Though that's only after it ratcheted up the possibility of said invasion for several years as the program was formulating.
The previous status quo resulted in them developing nuclear weapons while consistently lying about it and making false concessions to the US/allies in return for aide over the course of 30-odd years. What's so good about that, and how would a return to it in any way prevent them developing ballistic missile technology?
Because it allowed years to delay them getting more powerful, there was added time to let the regime fall apart on its own and we don't want to start WW III. China is finally pivoting, but it wasn't alway the case and a big reason they're doing it is to cut off Trump from actively attacking NK from his dick measuring contest with King Jong Un. There's a good reason why the world was happy to not get into a firefight with NK, and it wasn't because they wouldn't win.
If tensions were like this years back with America we'd have already had a hot war with NK by now.
When I was first came to the United States, air strikes on North Korea (and then...something something profit?) were publicly "on the table", at least as far as news coverage was concerned. Certainly it was buoyed by the confidence that, at that precise time, North Korean air defense and militarization was as weak as it was ever going to be, adding to a sense of urgency.
The primary international opposition came in the form of Russia and China screaming (in a very quiet, scared manner) for the US not to do it.
Granted, it didn't happen, but Russia and China also screamed at the US not to invade Iraq, and a fat lot of good that did.
I'm not sure where you're going with this? Yeah. the US is terrible but the one constant through the decades, despite the saber rattling is that it never actually activated a hot war with NK. Was this W.? He was really pushing NK for a while there, thankfully he calmed down - Trump is 10 x worse than W. was.
China and Russia were able to let cooler heads prevail with NK for a long, long time - which is good. Unfortunately it's a whole new ball game with Trump in the mix. And it was more than them who tried to convince America not to invade Iraq, France was a big one as well.
The previous status quo resulted in them developing nuclear weapons while consistently lying about it and making false concessions to the US/allies in return for aide over the course of 30-odd years. What's so good about that, and how would a return to it in any way prevent them developing ballistic missile technology?
Because it allowed years to delay them getting more powerful, there was added time to let the regime fall apart on its own and we don't want to start WW III. China is finally pivoting, but it wasn't alway the case and a big reason they're doing it is to cut off Trump from actively attacking NK from his dick measuring contest with King Jong Un. There's a good reason why the world was happy to not get into a firefight with NK, and it wasn't because they wouldn't win.
If tensions were like this years back with America we'd have already had a hot war with NK by now.
Don't get me wrong, a hot war with NK is unthinkable. But the fact that their nuclear weapons program was successful at all is a major failing of our foreign policy. I just don't think the type relationship that led to that end should be a goal anyone is aiming for.
What was the alternative? That strategy may have ultimately failed, but it provided peace force for decades in Korea and was vital in slowing down their progress. It's not like the US and the world aren't doing their best to sanction NK, the country's been on a tipping point for years because of them.
Posts
That's why they have me so concerned. There's no good way to deal with them. They largely ignore sanctions, and any military action is pretty much off the table because of the missles they have pointing at our allies in SK and Japan. How do you deal with a country that is largely self destructive? I know our old strategy was to just ignore them, but since Kim Jong-un took over that strategy mostly means we sit back and watch while they develop missles with the goal of being able to reach us (while openly stating as much).
Trump's saber rattling ignited this, that's why ignoring them worked in the past. We went through with this post-Clinton when NK restarted their missile program after W. put them on the Axis of Evil. Ignore them, de-esclate and tensions will drop.
edit: Take Trump away, settle them down and everything goes back to previous status quo.
This IS the status quo
I don't think that Trump has really affected North Korea's global strategy much, if at all. They were previously ignoring global sanctions and developing their own weapons plans, and they are still doing so.
I am a bit surprised that they fired a missile towards Russia, however. In the past they haven't openly antagonized Russia, because Russia wouldn't care as much (if at all) if North Korea brought down South Korea and damaged Japan as it imploded.
That was the status quo, it isn't now. America getting into a pissing contest with NK is not what the procedure is meant to be, even W. learnt to knock that shit off. The entire point of the status quo is to de-esclate the situation, Trump is pressuring them into a dick measuring contest. The heat's only died down lately because he's been distracted - once their back on Trump's radar this is game on.
This should be a concern, and a huge sign that things are getting worse not back to your regularly scheduled program.
NK is doing what NK has done for the last 20 years, Trump isn't changing that. Internal politics demand that the US is an aggressive threat, so whether the US actually is or not is kind of a moot point, to be honest.
Despite Trump's rhetoric his largest change in policy so far is largely leaving things up to the Chinese.
He didn't "kind of" do that, when NK is put on the Axis of Evil check list post-9/11 it's the sort of thing that makes them want to get their hate on. This was an extremely bad thing to do, thankfully this was dialed down over the years and it never became a hot spot over dick waving like we've been going through with Trump.
Sure he is, sure they're doing similar things but it's not that that's the problem - it's the escalation. Do you recall them doing things like to this degree with Obama or Bill Clinton? Or even W.? I don't. Sure there's the occasional saber rattling, that goes without saying, what Trump was doing goes beyond that.
After ratcheting up tension in the regions with his bluster that they finally had to step in to prevent him accidentally starting WW 3. Had he not done this the Chinese wouldn't have had to act overtly against NK in a non-standard way. Usually China's whistling in the distance while NK goes off with its impotent threats or they make some wrist slapping noises that amount to nothing.
Considering the fragile state of the Russian economy, and its very high (and in the opinion of many in the Russian public, dangerous) dependence on Chinese investment and loans--which in turn link to Chinese trade with South Korea (you know, Seoul's largest trade partner, twice that of the United States), and repeated Russian attempts to bypass China by making South Korea a partner with the Eurasian Union, that is incredibly, almost comically, mistaken.
Vladimir Putin hasn't personally visited Shinzo Abe a dozen times because he likes the flight. He's done it because he and Abe are closer to full normalization relations between Moscow and Tokyo since before the collapse of the USSR and Russian independence, and (many would suspect) is privately worried that the United States can easily sway Abe to scrub what very gradual progress they've made if Abe is convinced that the disputed territories issue isn't worth his time.
Putting aside past cases of North Korean/Russian antagonism since 1992, Moscow wants to arbitrate a settlement between North and South Korea because 1) it would look good if they could, the same way the Soviet Union bringing peace to India and Pakistan looked very good for it as long as it lasted 2) It would leave both sides indebted to them and 3) the United States gave up trying to do that. A unified Korea under Seoul's rule (as Russia and the rest of the world presumes would be the outcome) is more than worth the trade off. Which is why Russia keeps trying to facilitate meetings between the Kims and different Korean presidencies, with no success.
Moscow may never succeed with that rather fanciful goal, but the notion that they couldn't care less is completely divorced from reality. South Korea actually has purchased more war hardware from Russia in the last 20 years than North Korea has, starting with debt repayments and moving on to normal sales--but then again, it's really easy to beat "Almost nothing at all, not counting illegal copies and reverse-engineering."
battletag: Millin#1360
Nice chart to figure out how honest a news source is.
If you believe Pres. Carter, bad timing was what kept us from a unified coalition government (which, let's be real, would eventually be controlled entirely by Seoul anyway) taking hold in the 1990s, with the softening of South Korea's position and bringing Kim Il-Sung to the negotiating table.
It's a convincing argument, at least in part. Personally, I don't think the Kim dynasty itself necessarily needs to continue--there's a possibility, even if it is a lessened one, of a military clique closely replacing the Kim's for one generation (though longer is less likely), not wholly unlike the military cliques that took hold after the death of the dictator in South Korea decades earlier.
But that's just speculation on my part. In a few years, "Bombing literally every building in North Korea to rubble, then launching an invasion and occupation," will be off the table, regardless of China's objections or lack of it.
This is one of those buried deep in the Japanese news but finally got out. The bill is basically a huge clampdown on a lot of activities in the name of stopping terrorism. And is another step to allowing Abe's government to implement a lot more control over Japanese society.
This is a little odd to see in the article: "The conservative prime minister has made no secret of his desire to change Article 9, which bars Japan from maintaining a “war potential” and renounces the use of force except to defend itself when it comes under direct attack."
I mean, that's been the conservative argument for decades, but its not actually supported by the text itself and I wouldn't be surprised if a number of the groups protesting the new bill wouldn't agree with that summary.
The general interpretation is the Japanese can defend themselves if they are attacked directly. They may not use war for any other means. Basically they can be declared war against but not declared war on. The general reading for years now is that the Japanese will not maintain the ability to project power and have a limited national guard.
Technically the JSDF is kind of illegal if you do a word for word reading but since they have no official projection capability and the universe doesn't exist in a way where Japan could have 0 military forces for defense especially considering some post war periods it exists.
I mean if you are super literal the Japanese if war is declared and are invaded should not fight back as they have no sovereign right of self defense through violence in the writing. But in general and with in international norms it is considered that the Japanese gave up the right to declare offensive operations as a sovereign state not the self defense principal.
The very act of sending mind cleaning ships to Iraq has caused huge backlash issues in Japan though technically they were committing no armed troops to the actual invasion.
The complexity of Article 9 is interesting because it is a sovereign state giving up a right in a way no other state has before or since.
You're not telling me anything I don't already know.
But what you describe as the "general interpretation" and the "general reading" isn't just a neutral reading of the text; it's the conservative interpretation, which was essentially made up out of whole cloth when MacArthur told Yoshida to create the National Police Reserve during the Korean War (and even then was initially justified through the UN Charter rather than anything in the constitution itself). The Socialists and Communists fought against that interpretation for decades before finally becoming politically irrelevant. And for decent reason, since there are plenty of documents from the drafting of the constitution which make reference to Japan being dependent on the UN and the world for its defense. Yoshida himself even explicitly rejected Japan having a right to self-defense at the time.
I thus found it odd, given the article's pretty critical stance on Abe, that the self-defense exception is stated as if it were explicit rather than just the predominant interpretation, especially as it then goes on to reference the fact that the desire to make the constitutionality of the SDF explicit is one of the reasons Abe has given for amending Article 9.
Mindanao under martial law due to sepatists claiming alliance with ISIS laying siege to a southern town.
http://time.com/4791237/rodrigo-duterte-martial-law-philippines/
Apparent local:
https://www.reddit.com/r/Philippines/comments/6ctoij/terrorist_attack_right_now_in_marawi/dhxh1dw/
I'm literally at the airport leaving Manila right now - MIL was in the hospital, wife is staying a little longer just in case. Shit :-/
Linky
Reads a lot like standard Trump ramblings.
Here, I'll help! Just going to quote Couscous from the Foreign Policy thread (bolded to make sure it's clear that this is from a different thread)
Stay safe. I'm actually feeling better that martial law was declared for it. My first thought was Duterte calling martial law to deal with the drug problem, but this is a legitimate reason for using it.
My family is in Visayas and I'm in Luzon right now so it doesn't directly impact us, is just one of those things which you don't expect to happen and catches you off guard when it does.
E: also, because it wasn't apparent from the previous posts, apparently order has been restored in Marawi. Not all details /info available yet, because they've asked the news to not post up everything as it might help the opposing side.
That's crazy! That kind of shit almost never gets leaked, that's someone who's so pissed off they're willing to go to jail.
That's cause the last president I think that declared Martial Law was Marcos, it lasted for 20 years and was pretty much his basis for dictatorship.
Honestly, I can understand declaring martial law in that specific area right now, I just don't trust Duterte
PSN: jrrl_absent
The court has also announced that its decision will be made available in English in addition to Chinese, which gives me some hope because surely it's not going to actively solicit international attention like this only to slap LGBT people in the face.
Local media report with full text of ruling in English
BBC
New York Times
Edit - and while any state would respond forcefully to this, I fear what the government under Duterte will do in Mindanao
The Southern Islands of the Philippines have had on and off civil unrest for ages. And this is just one in a long line of events. The fact that it was tied to ISIS is the new part.
I am hoping Duterte isn't able to pull a Marcos with the checks put in place but in the world we live in just expect the worse possible outcome.
The China Post
The Taipei Times
For however much longer it lasts, I'm glad Taiwan is a country where newspapers are still a thing. That's worth mentioning.
As Pipe Dreamer mentioned, the burden now goes to the Legislative Yuan, which has tabled (sort of) marriage law proposals from the ruling DPP, the minority NPP and the former-ruling KMT. All three proposals, as I understand it, are modifications to the civil marriage code, rather than new laws, and their differences are subtle involving the language to be used for what would be the next issue down the line were they to pass, adoption of children by gay couples.
As for what proposal is adopted (or when), is completely in the air. Despite the "tone" of her campaign, Pres. Tsai would has technically tabled the matter up to this point, avoiding it in policy talks (though the party claim is correct that she did not campaign on behalf of gay marriage, but simply came out strong in favor for it during the race, which in retrospect sounds more opportunistic than it probably was). The president's feelings on the subject are clear even if she has not moved much on the matter, but the rest of the DPP itself is increasingly divided: though it is certainly the small-l liberal party, it has styled itself the party of Christian Taiwan, particularly Presbyterian Taiwanese, whom where deeply involved in its initial founding with the legalization of other political parties and the end of the KMT dictatorship. it was Chen-era DPP Vice President Annette Lu, after all, self-styled founder of modern Taiwanese feminism, who called AIDS God's punishment on the gay community (that's one thing no sitting KMT VP has every said, even when the government was arresting the country's most famous gay rights advocate, Chi Chia-wei, on trumped-up charges). The DPP's relationship with this is fairly complicated.
On the other side of the aisle, the more politically conservative KMT's proposal was penned by MP Jason Hsu, without a doubt the "young face" of the party. Though having long-term conservative appeal, the party is not beholder to Christian or South rural Taiwanese interests, increasing the bastion against gay marriage and the most counterprotests. The KMT is increasingly well known for being flexible on anything but the issue of China--despite their historical pro-business stance, they came out faster in favor of organized labor this year than the DPP did, for example. Hsu, who came out of the anti-KMT and anti-Chinese Sunflower Protests of last year also endorsed the DPP resolution (though preferring his own obviously) as acceptable, though that really doesn't affect party policy as far as I can tell.
The very recent New Power Party (which came out of the Sunflower Protests as well), which is populist to the DPP's liberal/neoliberal, also put out its proposal, considered the most radical (in its subtle way), and also came out more publicly, draping rainbow banners on its party headquarters. Curiously, like the KMT's bill, the NPP's functions on removing "gendered" language throughout the civil code text (i.e. replace "father" with "parent), whereas the DPP does not. The NPP controls a very small number of seats in the parliament, so they don't have much clout to start with.
The Taiwanese LGBTQ community has publicly favored an entirely new law on occasion, but it doesn't look like that will happen presently.
Yup, extremists have always been a major threat in Mindanao, with the MNLF, MILF (yes that really is what they call themselves, it stands for Moro Islamic Liberation Front), and Abu Sayyaf. But yeah, the further from the major cities and destinations you go, the weaker the hold of the state generally is.
PSN: jrrl_absent
Rock Band DLC | GW:OttW - arrcd | WLD - Thortar
Because it allowed years to delay them getting more powerful, there was added time to let the regime fall apart on its own and we don't want to start WW III. China is finally pivoting, but it wasn't alway the case and a big reason they're doing it is to cut off Trump from actively attacking NK from his dick measuring contest with King Jong Un. There's a good reason why the world was happy to not get into a firefight with NK, and it wasn't because they wouldn't win.
If tensions were like this years back with America we'd have already had a hot war with NK by now.
When I was first came to the United States, air strikes on North Korea (and then...something something profit?) were publicly "on the table", at least as far as news coverage was concerned. Certainly it was buoyed by the confidence that, at that precise time, North Korean air defense and militarization was as weak as it was ever going to be, adding to a sense of urgency.
The primary international opposition came in the form of Russia and China screaming (in a very quiet, scared manner) for the US not to do it.
Granted, it didn't happen, but Russia and China also screamed at the US not to invade Iraq, and a fat lot of good that did.
The rub of it is that, unfortunately, because of the fucked up circumstances that brought us here in the first place, the success of Pyongyang's nuclear program will ultimately go a long way to preventing the hottest of hot wars--a total invasion of North Korea with the goal of removing the government and military, Iraq-style.
Though that's only after it ratcheted up the possibility of said invasion for several years as the program was formulating.
I'm not sure where you're going with this? Yeah. the US is terrible but the one constant through the decades, despite the saber rattling is that it never actually activated a hot war with NK. Was this W.? He was really pushing NK for a while there, thankfully he calmed down - Trump is 10 x worse than W. was.
China and Russia were able to let cooler heads prevail with NK for a long, long time - which is good. Unfortunately it's a whole new ball game with Trump in the mix. And it was more than them who tried to convince America not to invade Iraq, France was a big one as well.
What was the alternative? That strategy may have ultimately failed, but it provided peace force for decades in Korea and was vital in slowing down their progress. It's not like the US and the world aren't doing their best to sanction NK, the country's been on a tipping point for years because of them.