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US and China Agree To Emissions Reductions; First Such Agreement by China
enlightenedbum
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Registered User regular
Link to the story.
Details:
James Fallows has some analysis.
The lack of ratification required is obviously a big deal, considering the dysfunction in our Senate. But this seems like a big deal, both materially and in the symbolic ways Fallows points out.
Details:
As part of the agreement, Mr. Obama announced that the United States would emit 26 percent to 28 percent less carbon in 2025 than it did in 2005. That is double the pace of reduction it targeted for the period from 2005 to 2020.
China’s pledge to reach peak carbon emissions by 2030, if not sooner, is even more remarkable. To reach that goal, Mr. Xi pledged that so-called clean energy sources, like solar power and windmills, would account for 20 percent of China’s total energy production by 2030.
Administration officials acknowledged that Mr. Obama could face opposition to his plans from a Republican-controlled Congress. While the agreement with China needs no congressional ratification, lawmakers could try to roll back Mr. Obama’s initiatives, undermining the United States’ ability to meet the new reduction targets.
James Fallows has some analysis.
The lack of ratification required is obviously a big deal, considering the dysfunction in our Senate. But this seems like a big deal, both materially and in the symbolic ways Fallows points out.
The idea that your vote is a moral statement about you or who you vote for is some backwards ass libertarian nonsense. Your vote is about society. Vote to protect the vulnerable.
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I just have to imagine that the ongoing air pollution problems in Beijing, including during this summit, was no small part of the calculus involved here as well.
Every city I've been to so far is smog filled, like how the USA was back 50 years ago.
This has jack shit to do with the USA, and everything to do with cleaning up their smog problems.
Hell, I have never seen the sun nor a blue sky in the fortnight I've been here.
Not in coastal Hong Kong, not in rural Danxia mountain, not in Shenzhen, not in Guangzhou.
Because this never passes a Senate vote and everyone knows that.
But China has never signed on to the idea that it has to reduce emissions before.
This is huge in that sense and a very good sign.
Korea's weather is psycotic and deadly from December to September. Only Autumn is pleasant.
It's technically non-binding and doesn't require ratification. Which means a GOP President in 2017 can fuck it up, but that's a given anyway.
BTW, is this going to be a thread about the US/China deal or can we talk about other things. I kind of want to bitch about how Dominion power and Virginia's Legislator are fucking the state over on some many levels when it comes to energy generation.
Take for example the 20% renewable pledge. With just 5% yearly growth, China will be producing roughly 207% of the CO2 then that it does now. So even that 20% renewables target means China will still be producing ~165% of what it produces now. Even if the US reached 0 CO2 emissions it wouldn't quite cancel out the Chinese growth.
I've said it before in all the climate change threads, if we expect to mitigate climate change at all we have to be looking at some sort of geo/climate engineering, because reducing CO2 emissions at this point just isn't going to happen/do enough.
I'm sure we don't actually know yet but it seems like a relevant question.
the "no true scotch man" fallacy.
Though I think the bigger issue in the US, is that we have numerous shitty companies owned by the Koch Brothers or like Virginia's Dominion, that are just to fucking full of shit, that they go out of their way to prevent any sort of progress. I'm not sure how much of it is shitty spite and how much of it is just fucking idiocy on their parts. If they are suppose to be so smart, given that the data is starting to show solar and wind are profitable, they should be getting in on the game instead of interfering.
Edit: Here's a fun little editorial where the Virginia State Corporation Commission gets ripped a new one for a really shitty report. The SCC is a pretty good example of Virginia's ethics issues and a great example of why people should be wary of major corporation that opposes alternative energy because I assure you most aren't going to do so on the pretext of reality.
When.
When is the GOP going to finally admit that climate change is real? It seems like they'll have to eventually. First, I mean, it kind of manifestly is. Second of all, the longer they don't, the longer they have to resort to this sort of incoherent nonsense.
See if you can square these beliefs:
1. The agreement means that China has to reduce its carbon emissions too slowly.
2. Carbon emissions do not contribute to global warming.
I would be far more likely to consider the GOP's views on a lot of other issues if they weren't so committed to slamming the President at the expense of things like facts and reality. Well, the whole screwing over the planet to benefit energy companies thing, too.
Sorry for bringing domestic politics into an international thread, but this shit...ugh.
When.
EDIT- Or when Jesus comes back and He tags them with bearing false witness and overall destroying his planet?
Probably won't just be Miami. I'm guessing anything that borders the Everglades is going to sink. So, basically all of South Florida. Or, the biggest blue parts. Also, some of the most profitable tourist and seasonal areas of the state.
There's also the option of eventually admitting it exists but claiming it's too late to do anything and we're better off doubling down and exploiting the post-apocalypse economy as much as possible (while selling the high-altitude real estate they somehow had the miraculous foresight to invest in ten years ago).
And really, is China pledging to stop increasing their carbon emissions by 2030 really that impressive? I mean it's great that China has at least come to any sort of pollution agreement, but before this particular one was made, when was their carbon output predicted to peak? It wouldn't surprise me if it was within a year or two of 2030 anyway.
The cynic in me believes that China just agreed to something that was going to happen regardless, in order to score political points at home and abroad.
They will never admit it.
Even when their states start to disappear beneath the waves, they'll blame it on homosexuals or something equally ridiculous, because all the big pollution generators are also the republicans biggest donators.
edit
Didn't see Wyverns post, funny we both make the same assumption on what the Republicans will blame.
Rough idea: it seems like China's goals are to at least equal US standards of living. They currently consume a bit less than 30% as much electricity as us per capita, which seems like a good stand in when involving this discussion in particular. So to reach their goal they have to more than triple their energy output in 15 years. In the last 15, they've increased by something like 130%. Coal being the easiest way to do that, especially since they mine almost half of the planet's coal, I think it's safe to say this is a real change.
That's probably being done for domestic reasons more than international ones, but the symbolism internationally is strong.
I'd just like to be able to convince myself that this has more than just symbolic significance.
Miami's a catch all. Do you live in or near a seaside community?
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Eh, that can be fixed by polluting more.
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Sure and so is a step backwards. This deal doesn't achieve what it needs to achieve to actually attenuate climate change, but effectively lets China off the hook for the next decade and a half, while still being in compliance with an agreement that is very much a 'too little too late' deal.
All the Chinese government needs to do to be reminded that they need to reduce pollution is look out a window in Beijing. That is how I'm pretty sure they're sincere in this.
"Orkses never lose a battle. If we win we win, if we die we die fightin so it don't count. If we runs for it we don't die neither, cos we can come back for annuver go, see!".
Like you said, my impression was that China expected its peak CO2 output to peak around 2030 anyway. I'm all for reducing emissions, but I'm not sure this agreement actually means anything.
I'll take a stab at it. It requires a few intermediate steps and a bit of order reversal.
1. Carbon emissions do not [meaningfully?] contribute to global warming.
2. A significant percentage of people, including the people who wrote this deal, believe that carbon emissions are the primary driver of global warming, however.
3. Those people have an interest, therefore, in rapidly and effectively reducing carbon emissions in order to combat globabl warming.
4. Therefore, they actions they take should result in rapid and effective reductions in carbon emissions.
5. The agreement means that China has to reduce its carbon emissions too slowly - it requires neither a rapid nor an effective reduction in Chinese carbon emissions.
6. Therefore, this agreement puts additional burden on [constituents] while not even achieving its stated goals, regardless of whether or not you believe that those are good goals to be working towards.
How's that? (Other than depressing.)
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If you think this is a step back you have unrealistic expectations. The 2 degree limit is never going to be met. If it was, it would've had to start back in the 80s or 90s. China has never admitted that it needs to cap, let alone reduce, emissions. It making this move is a breakthrough that will lead, hopefully, to fuller and better deals in the years to come.
Short of invading the rest of the world and forcing them to toe the line (which wouldn't work), this is the best you can do right now.
People should absolutely still push, never stop pushing, but this is a victory of the possible.
Way things are going, wouldn't shock me if it ended up going the other way.
China's immediate air pollution problems don't have a whole lot to do with carbon, though, Beijing is drowning in smog and particulates which aren't the same thing. You can clean those up without really putting a dent in your carbon emissions; the US has been doing that for a long time.