Oh please its not like a bunch of patriots fans whooped and hollared about being the only undefeated champions in the modern age prior to the giants game or anything...
Oh please its not like a bunch of patriots fans whooped and hollared about being the only undefeated champions in the modern age prior to the giants game or anything...
You know, we don't talk about that.
It never happened.
Sorry my sympathy for pats fans went wide right when complaining about losses to the fucking giants.
I would like some money because these are artisanal nuggets of wisdom philistine.
Oh please its not like a bunch of patriots fans whooped and hollared about being the only undefeated champions in the modern age prior to the giants game or anything...
You know, we don't talk about that.
It never happened.
Sorry my sympathy for pats fans went wide right when complaining about losses to the fucking giants.
fuck the giants
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I never thought any discussion would make me wish for the Harbowl discussion instead. And I'm a big Niners fan, but damn this ball inflation shit is the worst.
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AManFromEarthLet's get to twerk!The King in the SwampRegistered Userregular
I'm saving a of this talk about how the Pats are historically great and the next time one of you fuckers start with the woe is me talk linky linky
I'm guessing the Pats win the Super Bowl but Seattle makes a good go of it. These are two of the best teams in the game and we are in for a treat, I expect.
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admanbunionize your workplaceSeattle, WARegistered Userregular
I wonder how often it is that the two best teams of the year (going off DVOA) are in the Super Bowl.
Well last year it was the leagues best defense vs the leagues best offense. And that's happened before usually the defense won, though the one time they lost was also denver because FUCK THE BRONCOS SUCK MY DICK JOHN ELWAY!
I would like some money because these are artisanal nuggets of wisdom philistine.
I wonder how often it is that the two best teams of the year (going off DVOA) are in the Super Bowl.
Are they? I think NE was third (before the playoffs, at least. The respective DEN and NE performances vs the colts would prob flip that if it's DVOA to date though)
maybe i'm streaming terrible dj right now if i am its here
I wonder how often it is that the two best teams of the year (going off DVOA) are in the Super Bowl.
Are they? I think NE was third (before the playoffs, at least. The respective DEN and NE performances vs the colts would prob flip that if it's DVOA to date though)
1st and 4th in unweighted, I supposed. 1st and 2nd in weighted.
Oh please its not like a bunch of patriots fans whooped and hollared about being the only undefeated champions in the modern age prior to the giants game or anything...
You know, we don't talk about that.
It never happened.
You know, maybe the most obvious punishment for the Patriots flagrant violation of a very black and white rule would be to allow the Seahawks to make some additions to their roster for the Super Bowl. Where the Seahawks would then borrow Eli Manning to help guide them to another Super Bowl victory over the Patriots.
Oh please its not like a bunch of patriots fans whooped and hollared about being the only undefeated champions in the modern age prior to the giants game or anything...
Oh please its not like a bunch of patriots fans whooped and hollared about being the only undefeated champions in the modern age prior to the giants game or anything...
You know, we don't talk about that.
It never happened.
You know, maybe the most obvious punishment for the Patriots flagrant violation of a very black and white rule would be to allow the Seahawks to make some additions to their roster for the Super Bowl. Where the Seahawks would then borrow Eli Manning to help guide them to another Super Bowl victory over the Patriots.
Oh please its not like a bunch of patriots fans whooped and hollared about being the only undefeated champions in the modern age prior to the giants game or anything...
You know, we don't talk about that.
It never happened.
You know, maybe the most obvious punishment for the Patriots flagrant violation of a very black and white rule would be to allow the Seahawks to make some additions to their roster for the Super Bowl. Where the Seahawks would then borrow Eli Manning to help guide them to another Super Bowl victory over the Patriots.
I'm saving a of this talk about how the Pats are historically great and the next time one of you fuckers start with the woe is me talk linky linky
I'm guessing the Pats win the Super Bowl but Seattle makes a good go of it. These are two of the best teams in the game and we are in for a treat, I expect.
The Patriots are a tough team to gauge at the best of times. The Patriots ran all over the Colts, but passed all day against the Lions. They're really heavily reliant on special teams coming through. Because they tend to be in the lead a lot, Belichick shifts them over to a prevent defense, giving up yards for time. Despite the heart attacks they give their fans, the Patriots almost never blow late leads -as long as they're not playing the Manning brothers. DVOA accounts for a lot of that, in ways traditional statistics don't. The Patriots are barely a top 10 team in passing by total yards, they're barely top 20 by total yards on the ground. Overall DVOA includes the Patriots first four games this season, and even weighted DVOA includes their loss to the Bills. The Bills game doesn't mean a whole lot, and the first four games were sort of weird, with the Patriots being out of sync, Gronk not Gronking, the offensive line being a mess, and the secondary not acting like the unit it was supposed to be. While I understand that every game counts, I think that the gap between game four and what happened afterward indicates something happened to cause a split. The Patriots beat the #2, #3 and #4 teams in the league by overall defensive DVOA by an average of over 20 points, scoring 37, 34, and 43 points against Buffalo, Detroit and Denver.
Seattle, in my opinion, defeats teams while being largely the same team week in and week out, and beating teams with its strengths. New England wins by mitigating the other team's strengths and exploiting their weaknesses. The Patriots reconfigure themselves into being a different team week by week. Both teams make great second half adjustments. The Patriots have allowed 32 second half points in their last eight games. The Green Bay Packers probably have a few unkind words to say about how the Seahawks play in the second half. Seattle has not lost since mid-November. The Patriots lost by less than a TD to the Green Bay team in Green Bay that Seattle just barely beat at home, and then the Pats lost to Buffalo in a meaningless game to end the season.
It's a little simplistic to say that when Brady can't throw, the Patriots can't win, but it's also true. Brady's best efforts in losing games came against the Packers (236 yards) and the Dolphins (226 yards). Brady is no longer what he was in 2007-2011 and hasn't had a 400 yard game all season, but he's still the engine that moves the Patriots down the field.* Stop Brady and you stop the Patriots and win the game. With one of the best passing defenses ever, the Seahawks are as well suited as anyone to stopping Brady. The Seahawks are good at a lot of things, and one of the things that Football Outsiders has them being really, really good at is stopping short passes, #4 in the league. It's been said in these threads quite a bit in the last year or three, but Brady isn't able to effectively go deep any more. Part of that may be declining arm strength or ball control; part of that is likely because the Patriots just aren't interested in going deep. They'd rather just amble up the field in 5-10 yard chunks, chewing time off of the clock. For the most part, the passing game between the Patriots offense and the Seahawks defense is a strength on strength match-up, and I think that the edge goes to the 2015 edition of the Legion of Boom over the 2015 edition of Tom Brady.
But: there are areas where the Patriots might have an edge over the Seattle defense: it's in their running back and tight end situation. Seattle was only about average against pass catching running backs and tight ends this past year, so that might be the mutation that the Patriots focus on. The Patriots use Shane Vareen as Danny Woodhead 2.0, and he could potentially burn the Seahawks. Blount averages 4.7 Y/A on the ground with the Patriots. With that said, Blount is only getting 4.5 YPA with the Patriots receiving, and the sample sizes are small, so I wouldn't compare him to Lynch just yet. Also, the Patriots DVOA on their rushing offense is a measly -3.6%. Note the negative sign - the team that destroyed the Colts on the ground twice, with two different running backs, is a below-average rushing team by overall rushing DVOA. The Patriots were #18 in the league in total rushing yards. But they also ran for over 200 yards against the Bengals. I think that the Patriots rushing game's effectiveness will come down to game-planning. Meanwhile, in the tight end front, Tim Wright is pretty good, catching 26 balls on 33 passes sent his way. Hoomanawanui is mostly just a pretty good blocker but can catch TD passes. Seattle is weak against tight ends, and those two guys could come up big for the Patriots.
The health of Sherman and Thomas is going to be absolutely critical. If Sherman and Thomas are playing at a reduced level, Brady could end up picking on them all day. Rodgers made a huge mistake by not targeting Sherman after Sherman was injured; to get off of the subject of Patriots/Seahawks a little, it's an example of Rodgers greatest strength also being his greatest weakness. Aaron Rodgers is incredibly careful with the football, and absolutely refuses to take risks with it. Normally, that's a good thing, but not always. I strongly suspect that Brady will be more willing to test those two early, and if he thinks it's a good match-up he'll go after them.
And of course, there's the Gronkasaurus in the room. I think that right now, if you told any quarterback or offensive coordinator that they could add one non-QB offensive player from the NFL to the team, any such player, every single one of them would choose Gronk. Whether blocking or receiving, Gronk is just incredible. Treat him like a #1 wide receiver and put your best people on him, and that opens up space for Edelman and LaFell the rest of New England's WRs. Treat him like a standard tight end and Gronk will destroy you. I expect that Gronk will line up against the left side of the field a lot - it'll either force Chancellor to come over and open up space on the right with both Chancellor and Sherman tied up on Gronk, or it'll force Sherman a little bit out of his comfort zone as he flips over to the right side of the field.
On the other side of the ball, the Seahawks are potentially better than the Patriots. While the Patriots have a better weighted DVOA (and again, recall that five of the Patriots games counting towards non-weighted DVOA are oddities), the Seahawks have a better overall offensive DVOA. They're #5 and #6, so the gap isn't a crazy huge one, but still: the Seahawks have had a better offense than the Patriots this year. Wilson leads a top ten passing offensive, and he probably wishes that he had Tom Brady's 2006 receivers to throw to. Doug Baldwin is Seattle's top receiver, with 825 yards, 12.5 Y/R, and 3 TDs. Brandon LaFell is New England's third best receiving threat, and he has 953 yards, 12.9 Y/R, and 7 TDs. Russel Wilson is basically a wizard, making yards out of nothing. Even when his receivers are off being mediocre, he himself can tuck in the ball and race off down the field.
Seattle rushing offense is incredible. Lynch was pretty good last year. He's better this year. Last year, he averaged 4.2 YPA rushing, 8.8 recieving. This year, he averages 4.7 on the ground, 9.9 receiving. The DVOA of Seattle's rushing offense is 29.9%. Meanwhile, the league's second best rushing offense by DVOA? It was Miami, with 10.3%. The number two team is twice as close to being average as it is to being the best. The Patriots have a mediocre run defense, 14th in the league by DVOA. They're #9 in terms of total yards allowed, but given how the Patriots tend to get ahead and force other teams to pass to try to catch up that number is misleading. I can't see Seattle breaking away from a game plan that includes "run the ball a lot." Right now, I actually expect New England to let Seattle do that. I expect that New England will try to shut Seattle down in the air, and hope that they can stop Seattle on enough runs to get them off of the field. I can't see New England being able to stop Wilson in the air and Wilson/Lynch on the ground at the same time.
DVOA seems to give the Patriots a pretty clear advantage in special teams. New England's special teams are some of the best in the league (#7), Seattle's are mediocre at best (#21). In the small sample size a of limited number of plays in one game, anything can happen, but I expect that New England will probably win this battle in whatever form it takes.
When I started to think about the coaching involved, one of my first thoughts was "If John Fox was coaching the Patriots, then I'd pick Seattle as the heavy favorites." The same applies to Marvin Lewis, Chuck Pagano, Jim Caldwell, etc. Seattle is just incredible at using their strengths to grind down other teams, and Pete Carroll can almost always be relied upon to make the right in-game adjustments, to be aggressive when the situation calls for it, and to keep his team in the game no matter what the score is. Unfortunately for the Seahawks, they're up against a guy who is also pretty good at making the right in-game adjustments, who also seemingly understands statistics and math as applied to a football game, and who can keep his team in a game when they fall behind. I don't think that Belichick is going to misunderstand Seattle's defense the way Fox did.
It comes back to what I said at the very start: Seattle destroys teams with their strengths. They're just so much better at overall defense and at running the football than anyone else. Special teams are their only real weaknesses***, beyond those there are only areas where the Seahawks are less strong - their WRs, their game against TE and RBs. The Patriots destroy teams with their weaknesses, and I don't know if there's enough there for Belichick to work with. Plus, the Patriots are notorious for slow starts. If they fall behind and let Seattle dictate the pace of the game, they'll lose just as badly as they did to the Chiefs. But on the other hand: there potential injuries to Thomas and Sherman, great special teams make a difference, and the Patriots have an offense that's shown an ability to find ways to beat great defenses. And of course, one of the few almost-weaknesses that the Seahawks have is against Tight Ends, and the Patriots have the man who is quite possibly the best TE to ever play the game.
I love both teams, but if I had to pick a jersey to wear, it'd be the Patriots. For the office pick 'em pool, I usually look at SRS, DVOA, and ELO. Two of the three (SRS and DVOA) have the Patriots as very, very slight favorites. Without taking into account the most recent games, ELO has the Seahawks winning by a field goal as I understand the system. In my opinion, these really are the two best teams in the league. I think that at the end of the day, on a neutral field, the Patriots best is probably better than the Seahawks best.
With that in mind, with a whole lot of trepidation, I'm picking the Patriots to win this, 27-20.
* On a side note, the Patriots have one 400 passing yard game this season, but Brady only threw for 367 yards in that game. Can YOU guess which game it was?
** The best team against short passes per DVOA? Cincinnati. Baltimore was #3, Detroit #6, and Denver #10. Seattle has a lot of helpful film to study.
*** I say this despite the Seahawks having recovered a critical onside kick last Sunday. Life is strange.
Shadowhope on
Civics is not a consumer product that you can ignore because you don’t like the options presented.
Dungy believes the officials missed a pair of penalties with this maneuver during the postseason.
“In the Baltimore game, [Shane] Vereen reported as ineligible several times,” Dungy explained. “If he stays in the game he must report again and continue to be ineligible. He must come out of the game for one play or there has to be a time out for him to play as an eligible receiver. On the touchdown drive Vereen played one play as ineligible and then played the next play in an eligible position. There should have been a penalty.”
The officials also missed a penalty in the game against the Colts, according to Dungy.
“[Nate] Solder reported as eligible correctly but [receiver Brandon] LaFell lined up on the line of scrimmage as if Solder was a tackle,” Dungy said. “There should have been a penalty for illegal formation. But it happened too fast for the officials.”
Both those things are false. Vereen was ineligible on two plays (Hooman on one). Vereen left after the first play. Hooman left after the second play. Vereen did not leave after the third play. That's legal because John Harbaugh committed unsportsmanlike conduct by throwing a tantrum and the rules say
RETURNING TO ORIGINAL POSITION Article 2
A player who has reported a change in his eligibility status to the Referee is permitted to return to a position indicated by the eligibility status of his number after:
(a) a team time out;
(b) the end of a quarter;
(c) the two-minute warning; (d) a foul;
..
The Patriots are operating 100% within the rules. What woud Saint Tony Dungy do in this situation?
Dungy said that, if he were coaching the Seahawks, he’d reluctantly tell the players to fake defensive injuries in the Super Bowl to counter New England’s tactic.
“It’s something I’m totally against doing but I would certainly tell my players to do it rather than have the NFL issue an apology the next day after we lost a Super Bowl,” Dungy said, adding he would do it only as a last resort.
He'd cheat.
The reaction? No condemnation, just grave nods about those terrible Patriots.
Great analysis. I think you may have left someone who may be the deciding factor in how well the Hawks play, and that's Jamie Collins. The guy is an absolute stud linebacker, he can blitz and he can crush running backs as well.
Makes me wonder how the Pats linebacker corps would be if Mayo was able to come back.
Well at least the nfl is going after the real problems.
at this point the team probably should run around with their hands as far away from their crotch as possible after all touchdowns in the superbowl
As long as what's on the inside stays inside, and what's on the outside stays outside, I don't think we have a problem worth worrying about. Call it the McDLT rule.
Zoku Gojira on
"Because things are the way they are, things will not stay the way they are." - Bertolt Brecht
Great analysis. I think you may have left someone who may be the deciding factor in how well the Hawks play, and that's Jamie Collins. The guy is an absolute stud linebacker, he can blitz and he can crush running backs as well.
Makes me wonder how the Pats linebacker corps would be if Mayo was able to come back.
I'm not actually sure that the Patriots would be much better if they had Mayo; I'm really of two minds about it. On the one hand, Mayo being out has forced Collins and Hightower to step up and has perhaps impacted what the Patriots did with Ayers, despite the different roles that they played. I like Mayo. He's been great for the Patriots. In 2010 and 2012, he was one of the best in the league at what he did. But even aside from his injuries, his biggest contributions in the last two years have been in leading the defense on the field, and I think that Hightower has led the defense as well as Mayo did. So, in terms of what he would have brought to the team up to this point this season compared to what happened, I think that the Patriots are better than what they would be with Mayo as he seemed to be in the past two years.
But with that said, I think that the Patriots really wish that they had a healthy Mayo to throw at the Beast.
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That shits just getting out of hand, I mean its almost like the NFL is using deflategate to hide all these petty fuck you fines they are tossing on the seahawks.
I would like some money because these are artisanal nuggets of wisdom philistine.
Haha, the NFL fined Kearse 5k for throwing the ball into the stands after the game was over. So dumb.
Well, I can't wait to see a pitcher win an important game and then huck the ball into the stands. Perhaps a batter winning the game with a home run can gift a lucky fan?
Yeah, it's a little different, blahblah. But, like it or not, chucking the ball into the stands falls under the rules for excessive celebrations. He'd have been better off if he'd just tried to bounce the ball out of the stadium. I saw him do it and knew they'd ding him for it. It just didn't come up earlier because it ended the game rather than happen earlier with time still on the clock.
In perspective, what he did is about the same as good ol' Terrell Owens pulling a pen out of his sock and signing the ball. You may feel it livens up the game (it does), but the league doesn't. In this case, the NFL would be best served by framing it as a fan safety issue.
Mike Reiss puts together a well thought out response to all the hand wringing and drama queen actions of the sports press about Brady and the Pats.
Most curious is the nugget from the NFL where he quotes them as saying they probably won't know until after the Superb Owl, which makes me think this is just a bunch of hot air from a lot of sour ass people.
Haha, the NFL fined Kearse 5k for throwing the ball into the stands after the game was over. So dumb.
Well, I can't wait to see a pitcher win an important game and then huck the ball into the stands. Perhaps a batter winning the game with a home run can gift a lucky fan?
Yeah, it's a little different, blahblah. But, like it or not, chucking the ball into the stands falls under the rules for excessive celebrations. He'd have been better off if he'd just tried to bounce the ball out of the stadium. I saw him do it and knew they'd ding him for it. It just didn't come up earlier because it ended the game rather than happen earlier with time still on the clock.
In perspective, what he did is about the same as good ol' Terrell Owens pulling a pen out of his sock and signing the ball. You may feel it livens up the game (it does), but the league doesn't. In this case, the NFL would be best served by framing it as a fan safety issue.
I could see hucking it into the stands being excessive for every touchdown but a game winner? No more excessive than the Lambeau leap and that shit doesn't get fined. Past a certain point these penalties for celebration go beyond any kind of actual policy and straight into "We don't like you celebrating."
And in baseball players do throw balls into the stands, it happens all the time during a game, not necessarily at the end, but between innings they play catch to remain warm and will toss that ball into the stands.
I would like some money because these are artisanal nuggets of wisdom philistine.
Haha, the NFL fined Kearse 5k for throwing the ball into the stands after the game was over. So dumb.
Well, I can't wait to see a pitcher win an important game and then huck the ball into the stands. Perhaps a batter winning the game with a home run can gift a lucky fan?
Yeah, it's a little different, blahblah. But, like it or not, chucking the ball into the stands falls under the rules for excessive celebrations. He'd have been better off if he'd just tried to bounce the ball out of the stadium. I saw him do it and knew they'd ding him for it. It just didn't come up earlier because it ended the game rather than happen earlier with time still on the clock.
In perspective, what he did is about the same as good ol' Terrell Owens pulling a pen out of his sock and signing the ball. You may feel it livens up the game (it does), but the league doesn't. In this case, the NFL would be best served by framing it as a fan safety issue.
I could see hucking it into the stands being excessive for every touchdown but a game winner? No more excessive than the Lambeau leap and that shit doesn't get fined. Past a certain point these penalties for celebration go beyond any kind of actual policy and straight into "We don't like you celebrating."
And in baseball players do throw balls into the stands, it happens all the time during a game, not necessarily at the end, but between innings they play catch to remain warm and will toss that ball into the stands.
As far as I understand it the ball chucking rule is actually less because No Fun League, and more because throwing game balls into a tightly packed crowd tends to result in drunken fights.
A trap is for fish: when you've got the fish, you can forget the trap. A snare is for rabbits: when you've got the rabbit, you can forget the snare. Words are for meaning: when you've got the meaning, you can forget the words.
It's still dumb Kana, there is no excuse for it other than "Don't waste our precious balls". Again major league baseball gives away balls all the time, but the no fun league "OH NOES ARE DUMB ASSES!"
To fine a player 5k for exuberance is the height of stupidity.
I would like some money because these are artisanal nuggets of wisdom philistine.
Russell Wilson Passing Yards -15½
US National Average Gas Price (in cents) on Monday, February 2 +15½
Supposedly this is a prop you can bet on and that is amazing. My initial thought was to take the Gas price but then a quick google at EIA is making me rethink that one. Seems like Wilson would have to be below 200 yards for gas to win.
Rewatching that Wilson pick into double coverage, it's really not as bad of a decision as I had thought from the initial video of it. The ball's clearly supposed to (and Kearse is expecting it to) go deep, and Kearse actually has his man beat by a generous step. Then the wind grabs it and the ball goes, "lol, nope, actually I'm gonna go over heeeere" and veers right towards the safety, who otherwise wouldn't have been close enough to even be involved in the play.
A trap is for fish: when you've got the fish, you can forget the trap. A snare is for rabbits: when you've got the rabbit, you can forget the snare. Words are for meaning: when you've got the meaning, you can forget the words.
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You know, we don't talk about that.
It never happened.
Sorry my sympathy for pats fans went wide right when complaining about losses to the fucking giants.
pleasepaypreacher.net
fuck the giants
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Lance Armstrong go home you're drunk.
God I've been waiting to use that one.
pleasepaypreacher.net
I'm guessing the Pats win the Super Bowl but Seattle makes a good go of it. These are two of the best teams in the game and we are in for a treat, I expect.
pleasepaypreacher.net
Are they? I think NE was third (before the playoffs, at least. The respective DEN and NE performances vs the colts would prob flip that if it's DVOA to date though)
maybe i'm streaming terrible dj right now if i am its here
The math on that comes out to just under five and a half solid days of content. But, fear not! You will be getting a breather during the week:
So that's okay, then.
Me I'll be playing dying light and killing zombies, so uhh good luck with all that.
pleasepaypreacher.net
While listening to your Breakfast Club soundtrack on repeat?
1st and 4th in unweighted, I supposed. 1st and 2nd in weighted.
Well I would watch buffalo super bowl highlights but there FUCKING AREN'T ANY FUCK YOU BUFFALLO!!!!!!
And nah I kill zombos to the Willy Wonka soundtrack, its strangely compelling.
"Oopma doompa dupity do, I've got an electrofied machete for you, oompa loompa dupity dee, if you are smart you'll flee from me!"
pleasepaypreacher.net
You know, maybe the most obvious punishment for the Patriots flagrant violation of a very black and white rule would be to allow the Seahawks to make some additions to their roster for the Super Bowl. Where the Seahawks would then borrow Eli Manning to help guide them to another Super Bowl victory over the Patriots.
I have 549 Rock Band Drum and 305 Pro Drum FC's
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Greatest moment in NFL history
Ewww!
Yes, pls.
The Patriots are a tough team to gauge at the best of times. The Patriots ran all over the Colts, but passed all day against the Lions. They're really heavily reliant on special teams coming through. Because they tend to be in the lead a lot, Belichick shifts them over to a prevent defense, giving up yards for time. Despite the heart attacks they give their fans, the Patriots almost never blow late leads -as long as they're not playing the Manning brothers. DVOA accounts for a lot of that, in ways traditional statistics don't. The Patriots are barely a top 10 team in passing by total yards, they're barely top 20 by total yards on the ground. Overall DVOA includes the Patriots first four games this season, and even weighted DVOA includes their loss to the Bills. The Bills game doesn't mean a whole lot, and the first four games were sort of weird, with the Patriots being out of sync, Gronk not Gronking, the offensive line being a mess, and the secondary not acting like the unit it was supposed to be. While I understand that every game counts, I think that the gap between game four and what happened afterward indicates something happened to cause a split. The Patriots beat the #2, #3 and #4 teams in the league by overall defensive DVOA by an average of over 20 points, scoring 37, 34, and 43 points against Buffalo, Detroit and Denver.
Seattle, in my opinion, defeats teams while being largely the same team week in and week out, and beating teams with its strengths. New England wins by mitigating the other team's strengths and exploiting their weaknesses. The Patriots reconfigure themselves into being a different team week by week. Both teams make great second half adjustments. The Patriots have allowed 32 second half points in their last eight games. The Green Bay Packers probably have a few unkind words to say about how the Seahawks play in the second half. Seattle has not lost since mid-November. The Patriots lost by less than a TD to the Green Bay team in Green Bay that Seattle just barely beat at home, and then the Pats lost to Buffalo in a meaningless game to end the season.
It's a little simplistic to say that when Brady can't throw, the Patriots can't win, but it's also true. Brady's best efforts in losing games came against the Packers (236 yards) and the Dolphins (226 yards). Brady is no longer what he was in 2007-2011 and hasn't had a 400 yard game all season, but he's still the engine that moves the Patriots down the field.* Stop Brady and you stop the Patriots and win the game. With one of the best passing defenses ever, the Seahawks are as well suited as anyone to stopping Brady. The Seahawks are good at a lot of things, and one of the things that Football Outsiders has them being really, really good at is stopping short passes, #4 in the league. It's been said in these threads quite a bit in the last year or three, but Brady isn't able to effectively go deep any more. Part of that may be declining arm strength or ball control; part of that is likely because the Patriots just aren't interested in going deep. They'd rather just amble up the field in 5-10 yard chunks, chewing time off of the clock. For the most part, the passing game between the Patriots offense and the Seahawks defense is a strength on strength match-up, and I think that the edge goes to the 2015 edition of the Legion of Boom over the 2015 edition of Tom Brady.
But: there are areas where the Patriots might have an edge over the Seattle defense: it's in their running back and tight end situation. Seattle was only about average against pass catching running backs and tight ends this past year, so that might be the mutation that the Patriots focus on. The Patriots use Shane Vareen as Danny Woodhead 2.0, and he could potentially burn the Seahawks. Blount averages 4.7 Y/A on the ground with the Patriots. With that said, Blount is only getting 4.5 YPA with the Patriots receiving, and the sample sizes are small, so I wouldn't compare him to Lynch just yet. Also, the Patriots DVOA on their rushing offense is a measly -3.6%. Note the negative sign - the team that destroyed the Colts on the ground twice, with two different running backs, is a below-average rushing team by overall rushing DVOA. The Patriots were #18 in the league in total rushing yards. But they also ran for over 200 yards against the Bengals. I think that the Patriots rushing game's effectiveness will come down to game-planning. Meanwhile, in the tight end front, Tim Wright is pretty good, catching 26 balls on 33 passes sent his way. Hoomanawanui is mostly just a pretty good blocker but can catch TD passes. Seattle is weak against tight ends, and those two guys could come up big for the Patriots.
The health of Sherman and Thomas is going to be absolutely critical. If Sherman and Thomas are playing at a reduced level, Brady could end up picking on them all day. Rodgers made a huge mistake by not targeting Sherman after Sherman was injured; to get off of the subject of Patriots/Seahawks a little, it's an example of Rodgers greatest strength also being his greatest weakness. Aaron Rodgers is incredibly careful with the football, and absolutely refuses to take risks with it. Normally, that's a good thing, but not always. I strongly suspect that Brady will be more willing to test those two early, and if he thinks it's a good match-up he'll go after them.
And of course, there's the Gronkasaurus in the room. I think that right now, if you told any quarterback or offensive coordinator that they could add one non-QB offensive player from the NFL to the team, any such player, every single one of them would choose Gronk. Whether blocking or receiving, Gronk is just incredible. Treat him like a #1 wide receiver and put your best people on him, and that opens up space for Edelman and LaFell the rest of New England's WRs. Treat him like a standard tight end and Gronk will destroy you. I expect that Gronk will line up against the left side of the field a lot - it'll either force Chancellor to come over and open up space on the right with both Chancellor and Sherman tied up on Gronk, or it'll force Sherman a little bit out of his comfort zone as he flips over to the right side of the field.
On the other side of the ball, the Seahawks are potentially better than the Patriots. While the Patriots have a better weighted DVOA (and again, recall that five of the Patriots games counting towards non-weighted DVOA are oddities), the Seahawks have a better overall offensive DVOA. They're #5 and #6, so the gap isn't a crazy huge one, but still: the Seahawks have had a better offense than the Patriots this year. Wilson leads a top ten passing offensive, and he probably wishes that he had Tom Brady's 2006 receivers to throw to. Doug Baldwin is Seattle's top receiver, with 825 yards, 12.5 Y/R, and 3 TDs. Brandon LaFell is New England's third best receiving threat, and he has 953 yards, 12.9 Y/R, and 7 TDs. Russel Wilson is basically a wizard, making yards out of nothing. Even when his receivers are off being mediocre, he himself can tuck in the ball and race off down the field.
Seattle rushing offense is incredible. Lynch was pretty good last year. He's better this year. Last year, he averaged 4.2 YPA rushing, 8.8 recieving. This year, he averages 4.7 on the ground, 9.9 receiving. The DVOA of Seattle's rushing offense is 29.9%. Meanwhile, the league's second best rushing offense by DVOA? It was Miami, with 10.3%. The number two team is twice as close to being average as it is to being the best. The Patriots have a mediocre run defense, 14th in the league by DVOA. They're #9 in terms of total yards allowed, but given how the Patriots tend to get ahead and force other teams to pass to try to catch up that number is misleading. I can't see Seattle breaking away from a game plan that includes "run the ball a lot." Right now, I actually expect New England to let Seattle do that. I expect that New England will try to shut Seattle down in the air, and hope that they can stop Seattle on enough runs to get them off of the field. I can't see New England being able to stop Wilson in the air and Wilson/Lynch on the ground at the same time.
DVOA seems to give the Patriots a pretty clear advantage in special teams. New England's special teams are some of the best in the league (#7), Seattle's are mediocre at best (#21). In the small sample size a of limited number of plays in one game, anything can happen, but I expect that New England will probably win this battle in whatever form it takes.
When I started to think about the coaching involved, one of my first thoughts was "If John Fox was coaching the Patriots, then I'd pick Seattle as the heavy favorites." The same applies to Marvin Lewis, Chuck Pagano, Jim Caldwell, etc. Seattle is just incredible at using their strengths to grind down other teams, and Pete Carroll can almost always be relied upon to make the right in-game adjustments, to be aggressive when the situation calls for it, and to keep his team in the game no matter what the score is. Unfortunately for the Seahawks, they're up against a guy who is also pretty good at making the right in-game adjustments, who also seemingly understands statistics and math as applied to a football game, and who can keep his team in a game when they fall behind. I don't think that Belichick is going to misunderstand Seattle's defense the way Fox did.
It comes back to what I said at the very start: Seattle destroys teams with their strengths. They're just so much better at overall defense and at running the football than anyone else. Special teams are their only real weaknesses***, beyond those there are only areas where the Seahawks are less strong - their WRs, their game against TE and RBs. The Patriots destroy teams with their weaknesses, and I don't know if there's enough there for Belichick to work with. Plus, the Patriots are notorious for slow starts. If they fall behind and let Seattle dictate the pace of the game, they'll lose just as badly as they did to the Chiefs. But on the other hand: there potential injuries to Thomas and Sherman, great special teams make a difference, and the Patriots have an offense that's shown an ability to find ways to beat great defenses. And of course, one of the few almost-weaknesses that the Seahawks have is against Tight Ends, and the Patriots have the man who is quite possibly the best TE to ever play the game.
I love both teams, but if I had to pick a jersey to wear, it'd be the Patriots. For the office pick 'em pool, I usually look at SRS, DVOA, and ELO. Two of the three (SRS and DVOA) have the Patriots as very, very slight favorites. Without taking into account the most recent games, ELO has the Seahawks winning by a field goal as I understand the system. In my opinion, these really are the two best teams in the league. I think that at the end of the day, on a neutral field, the Patriots best is probably better than the Seahawks best.
With that in mind, with a whole lot of trepidation, I'm picking the Patriots to win this, 27-20.
* On a side note, the Patriots have one 400 passing yard game this season, but Brady only threw for 367 yards in that game. Can YOU guess which game it was?
** The best team against short passes per DVOA? Cincinnati. Baltimore was #3, Detroit #6, and Denver #10. Seattle has a lot of helpful film to study.
*** I say this despite the Seahawks having recovered a critical onside kick last Sunday. Life is strange.
http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2015/01/23/dungy-nfl-needs-to-restrict-new-englands-substitution-game/
Both those things are false. Vereen was ineligible on two plays (Hooman on one). Vereen left after the first play. Hooman left after the second play. Vereen did not leave after the third play. That's legal because John Harbaugh committed unsportsmanlike conduct by throwing a tantrum and the rules say
And Nate Solder was not covered up by Lafell when he was declared eligible Dungy is just being a dick.
The Patriots are operating 100% within the rules. What woud Saint Tony Dungy do in this situation?
He'd cheat.
The reaction? No condemnation, just grave nods about those terrible Patriots.
QEDMF xbl: PantsB G+
Great analysis. I think you may have left someone who may be the deciding factor in how well the Hawks play, and that's Jamie Collins. The guy is an absolute stud linebacker, he can blitz and he can crush running backs as well.
Makes me wonder how the Pats linebacker corps would be if Mayo was able to come back.
As long as what's on the inside stays inside, and what's on the outside stays outside, I don't think we have a problem worth worrying about. Call it the McDLT rule.
Why do sports pundits hate America?
:tell_me_more:
I'm not actually sure that the Patriots would be much better if they had Mayo; I'm really of two minds about it. On the one hand, Mayo being out has forced Collins and Hightower to step up and has perhaps impacted what the Patriots did with Ayers, despite the different roles that they played. I like Mayo. He's been great for the Patriots. In 2010 and 2012, he was one of the best in the league at what he did. But even aside from his injuries, his biggest contributions in the last two years have been in leading the defense on the field, and I think that Hightower has led the defense as well as Mayo did. So, in terms of what he would have brought to the team up to this point this season compared to what happened, I think that the Patriots are better than what they would be with Mayo as he seemed to be in the past two years.
But with that said, I think that the Patriots really wish that they had a healthy Mayo to throw at the Beast.
pleasepaypreacher.net
Well, I can't wait to see a pitcher win an important game and then huck the ball into the stands. Perhaps a batter winning the game with a home run can gift a lucky fan?
Yeah, it's a little different, blahblah. But, like it or not, chucking the ball into the stands falls under the rules for excessive celebrations. He'd have been better off if he'd just tried to bounce the ball out of the stadium. I saw him do it and knew they'd ding him for it. It just didn't come up earlier because it ended the game rather than happen earlier with time still on the clock.
In perspective, what he did is about the same as good ol' Terrell Owens pulling a pen out of his sock and signing the ball. You may feel it livens up the game (it does), but the league doesn't. In this case, the NFL would be best served by framing it as a fan safety issue.
Mike Reiss puts together a well thought out response to all the hand wringing and drama queen actions of the sports press about Brady and the Pats.
Most curious is the nugget from the NFL where he quotes them as saying they probably won't know until after the Superb Owl, which makes me think this is just a bunch of hot air from a lot of sour ass people.
I could see hucking it into the stands being excessive for every touchdown but a game winner? No more excessive than the Lambeau leap and that shit doesn't get fined. Past a certain point these penalties for celebration go beyond any kind of actual policy and straight into "We don't like you celebrating."
And in baseball players do throw balls into the stands, it happens all the time during a game, not necessarily at the end, but between innings they play catch to remain warm and will toss that ball into the stands.
pleasepaypreacher.net
As far as I understand it the ball chucking rule is actually less because No Fun League, and more because throwing game balls into a tightly packed crowd tends to result in drunken fights.
To fine a player 5k for exuberance is the height of stupidity.
pleasepaypreacher.net
Supposedly this is a prop you can bet on and that is amazing. My initial thought was to take the Gas price but then a quick google at EIA is making me rethink that one. Seems like Wilson would have to be below 200 yards for gas to win.
Rewatching that Wilson pick into double coverage, it's really not as bad of a decision as I had thought from the initial video of it. The ball's clearly supposed to (and Kearse is expecting it to) go deep, and Kearse actually has his man beat by a generous step. Then the wind grabs it and the ball goes, "lol, nope, actually I'm gonna go over heeeere" and veers right towards the safety, who otherwise wouldn't have been close enough to even be involved in the play.