You dont get much more historically fucked over than Haiti has been
True, but the question is "And now what?". So far, the plan seems to be to just close borders and let the biggest warlord take over, already being propped up by Russia Today, of course.
So, you know, typical "fuck it" "solution" after trying everything else aka the usual for Haiti.
Either its some sort of warlord, or you need an external peace keeping force and I don't see anyone lining up to take the first bite of that shit sandwich.
General rule is 1 occupation soldier for every 40 inhabitants, that is roughly 300k troops in the case of Haiti. Even if you think you can make do with a higher ratio(we tried to do Iraq with 1:160 and that went...not great), you are still talking a major military commitment.
The current gang takeover was apparently to stop an external peace keeping force from coming in. The president was out of country trying to finalize the deal with Kenya for them to send over people to help police the country and the gangs saw the threat and coordinated to take over to stop it from happening.
My wife is Dominican and waiting in the DR now while her immigration papers are processing, so obviously I'm keeping a close eye on the situation.
I would suspect she's fine. From a strictly "War" standpoint, not only is the DR no pushover relative to Haiti, but it's a very close US ally (as I'm sure you are aware). It's hard to say more about criminals filtering over the border and causing havoc, but I really do believe she'll be fine.
If the gangs were smart and avoiding outside forces is their goal, they'd make damn sure that none of the mess crosses the border because if it does that would be exactly the sort of thing to provoke a response.
If the gangs were smart and avoiding outside forces is their goal, they'd make damn sure that none of the mess crosses the border because if it does that would be exactly the sort of thing to provoke a response.
Eh. It'd have to get pretty bad before the Dominican decides it's worth sticking it's dick into that hornet's nest. There's a lot of instability on your border you can tolerate without it being worse then sending troops into a failed state.
My wife is Dominican and waiting in the DR now while her immigration papers are processing, so obviously I'm keeping a close eye on the situation.
I would suspect she's fine. From a strictly "War" standpoint, not only is the DR no pushover relative to Haiti, but it's a very close US ally (as I'm sure you are aware). It's hard to say more about criminals filtering over the border and causing havoc, but I really do believe she'll be fine.
It's hard because while my wife has sympathy for what's happened to Haiti's people and children over the years, she has had several bad experiences (stuff like basically being mini-kidnapped by a Taxi driver who intentionally drove the wrong way and then tried to shake her down for more money, and kicked her out on a random street corner when she wouldn't pay) that have her very much in favor of the border lockdown. Most people are just trying to make a living, but it only takes a few bad ones to make one more hesitant to lend a helping hand.
If the gangs were smart and avoiding outside forces is their goal, they'd make damn sure that none of the mess crosses the border because if it does that would be exactly the sort of thing to provoke a response.
Eh. It'd have to get pretty bad before the Dominican decides it's worth sticking it's dick into that hornet's nest. There's a lot of instability on your border you can tolerate without it being worse then sending troops into a failed state.
I wasn't thinking of the DR but just every war hawk in the US ready to find an excuse to send troops somewhere.
If the gangs were smart and avoiding outside forces is their goal, they'd make damn sure that none of the mess crosses the border because if it does that would be exactly the sort of thing to provoke a response.
Eh. It'd have to get pretty bad before the Dominican decides it's worth sticking it's dick into that hornet's nest. There's a lot of instability on your border you can tolerate without it being worse then sending troops into a failed state.
I wasn't thinking of the DR but just every war hawk in the US ready to find an excuse to send troops somewhere.
Even the US is going to be leery of sending troops into Haiti for historical reasons. And Biden wants to send troops into Haiti right before an election about as much as he wants to send them into Gaza right before an election and for basically the same reason.
If the gangs were smart and avoiding outside forces is their goal, they'd make damn sure that none of the mess crosses the border because if it does that would be exactly the sort of thing to provoke a response.
Eh. It'd have to get pretty bad before the Dominican decides it's worth sticking it's dick into that hornet's nest. There's a lot of instability on your border you can tolerate without it being worse then sending troops into a failed state.
I wasn't thinking of the DR but just every war hawk in the US ready to find an excuse to send troops somewhere.
Nah, hawks are always trying to bomb somewhere, but Haiti is signing up for exactly the kind of situations hawks always pretend won't happen when they are pushing for intervention somewhere. It's explicitly nation building.
Reminds me 19-dicky-2 when we sent Peacekeepers (armed marines) to facilitate an election in Haiti where voters voted by asking said armed marines for a piece of paper of a certain color that was used to indicate their vote
Hard to imagine but the option preferred by the US won like all the votes!
This weekend was the aniversary of the fall of democracy for Argentina, its always conmemorated with protests and civil rights organizations giving speeches, keeping alive the memory of the over 30.000 victims of the military regime. Most of the country was doing that, like every year.
Except the president, of course, he released a video focused on the families of the military and the violence from the "terrorists", called the whole conflict a Dirty War, wich is a term coined by the military regime to excuse their extrajudicial kidnapping and killing of dissenters and then said that both sides* were "bad" but fighting for what they thought was the best for the country. And then vicepresident twitted saying that it wasnt really 30.000 victims.
Thats some fascist stuff, like straight out of fascism 101.
*Both sides being, the state intelligence agency, police and military vs. people trying to resist them.
Edit: the holiday is called "The Day of Remembrance for Truth and Justice", the fucking president, Milei´s video was called something like "The Day of Remembrance for Truth and Justice. Complete"
FANTOMAS on
Yes, with a quick verbal "boom." You take a man's peko, you deny him his dab, all that is left is to rise up and tear down the walls of Jericho with a ".....not!" -TexiKen
This weekend was the aniversary of the fall of democracy for Argentina, its always conmemorated with protests and civil rights organizations giving speeches, keeping alive the memory of the over 30.000 victims of the military regime. Most of the country was doing that, like every year.
Except the president, of course, he released a video focused on the families of the military and the violence from the "terrorists", called the whole conflict a Dirty War, wich is a term coined by the military regime to excuse their extrajudicial kidnapping and killing of dissenters and then said that both sides* were "bad" but fighting for what they thought was the best for the country. And then vicepresident twitted saying that it wasnt really 30.000 victims.
Thats some fascist stuff, like straight out of fascism 101.
*Both sides being, the state intelligence agency, police and military vs. people trying to resist them.
Edit: the holiday is called "The Day of Remembrance for Truth and Justice", the fucking president, Milei´s video was called something like "The Day of Remembrance for Truth and Justice. Complete"
The US and anti-socialism have a LOT to answer for in Latin America.
You may remember that Ecuador allowed Julian Assange to stay in their British embassy, so not only is this a huge breach of norms and international law but also very hypocritical.
Yep, raiding someone's embassy is a hug breach of norms that is going to lead to series consequences. The fallout likely won't just end with Mexico cutting ties, other nations are likely to follow suit. Given that embassies are considered sovereign soil of the embassy holder and Ecuador essentially violated that, it calls into question which other embassies and consulates, are they going to raid because they think they can get away with it. At certain point, the calculus just shifts to it being easier to cut diplomatic ties because while a fair number of nations station well armed soldiers at their embassies and consulates, they'd really prefer to not have those troops actually engaging in combat.
The government party that was in charge when Ecuador shielded Assange is no longer in power, so current Ecuatorian President Noboa simply does not give a fuck.
This mess is going to have a lot of unintended consequences, I do not think that Noboa truly understands the consequences of what he just did.
The government party that was in charge when Ecuador shielded Assange is no longer in power, so current Ecuatorian President Noboa simply does not give a fuck.
This mess is going to have a lot of unintended consequences, I do not think that Noboa truly understands the consequences of what he just did.
At the very least, you can assume Ecuador's diplomats no longer have reliable diplomatic immunity ANYWHERE.
The government party that was in charge when Ecuador shielded Assange is no longer in power, so current Ecuatorian President Noboa simply does not give a fuck.
This mess is going to have a lot of unintended consequences, I do not think that Noboa truly understands the consequences of what he just did.
At the very least, you can assume Ecuador's diplomats no longer have reliable diplomatic immunity ANYWHERE.
That's the bare minimum. This is an act of war.
Just picking two:
Any other political asylum in embassies may be considered fair game.
Ecuatorians in Mexico may basically lose all rights and be completely at the non-existent mercy of Mexican law enforcement, since they cannot even deport them.
You may remember that Ecuador allowed Julian Assange to stay in their British embassy, so not only is this a huge breach of norms and international law but also very hypocritical.
How legit are the claims of corruption against the guy they arrested? I'm assuming not very at all given the context, but I'm curious.
Either way, eesh. What a way to torch your international credibility
I honestly don't know, it was apparently brought to light in a big Brazilian probe that had some shady stuff going on but also resulted in a lot of arrests.
Outside of Brazil, ex-presidents in Peru, El Salvador and Panama were also jailed as a result of investigations started by the task force. Major international companies, such as Maersk and Glencore, have also come under the investigators' microscope.
According to its own data, the Car Wash task force was responsible for 295 arrests, 278 convictions and 4.3 billion reais ($803 million) in ill-gotten gains being returned to the Brazilian state during its roughly seven years of operation.
Regardless of whether the charges are legitimate or not, it's always not a good idea to storm an embassy like that for the knock on the effects. For one, that just makes their case look weaker if it isn't bullshit. They also look like dicks because he was still undergoing the asylum process, so possible chance that Mexico might have rejected it and handed him over without out Ecuador's government deciding to shit the bed.
Wondering if they even made a good faith attempt at trying to persuade Mexico to hand him over or if a bunch of idiots decided they were allowed to be fuck ups for reasons.
Car Wash has been the event that has defined Latin American politics over the last decade. Basically, Brazilian construction company Odebrecht (which is why is called the Odebrecht case) being used as a huge money laundering operation by getting public contracts and then doing kickbacks to politicians. Lots of people got arrested for it. Then the usual, people got mad their favorite corrupt politician got arrested, lots of screaming about foreign interference and sovereignity and blah blah had to release some people thanks to political pressure.
You may remember that Ecuador allowed Julian Assange to stay in their British embassy, so not only is this a huge breach of norms and international law but also very hypocritical.
How legit are the claims of corruption against the guy they arrested? I'm assuming not very at all given the context, but I'm curious.
Either way, eesh. What a way to torch your international credibility
It doesn't matter - this is Something That Is Not Done and a violation of diplomatic treaties that form the backbone of the modern diplomatic order. To give an example of how serious this is, back in 1984, the Libyan Embassy responded to protestors outside their embassy by opening fire on them, killing several people (including a London police officer.) In response, the British government cordoned off the embassy, requested that the individual(s) involved be surrendered to the authorities, and when that was rebuffed they severed diplomatic ties and declared the Libyan diplomatic contingent persona non grata, expelling them from the UK. (The video linked above has more details on the incident.) At no time was a raid of the embassy even considered.
That should give you an idea of how outside the norms of diplomacy this was.
Car Wash has been the event that has defined Latin American politics over the last decade. Basically, Brazilian construction company Odebrecht (which is why is called the Odebrecht case) being used as a huge money laundering operation by getting public contracts and then doing kickbacks to politicians. Lots of people got arrested for it. Then the usual, people got mad their favorite corrupt politician got arrested, lots of screaming about foreign interference and sovereignity and blah blah had to release some people thanks to political pressure.
While Car Wash might have started as a corruption probe, it quickly got corrupted itself as the Brazilian right wing started blatantly using it to attack the Brazilian left after failing at the ballot - which is why there's been backlash from the public. Which is why this is a mess that has defined Latin American politics, because it's become yet another part of the political battlefield.
Yeah, regardless of what the guy's crimes were storming the embassy should never of happened.
Frankly, I wouldn't be suprfised if he was guilty, but it was just business as usual and now his opponents are going after him for stuff they do themselves.
Just as a point of education based on that video, the Embassy in El Salvador (I've been a lot) absolutely has that "security, security, security" appearance from the outside. Heavy armed guards, decent sized walls (and most of the buildings you can see from the outside look like barracks/etc, but once you are inside, it's INCREDIBLY nice, with a lot of greenspace, and if you get back into the staff areas, they have significant recreation areas that are very nice.
Pardon my lack of ability to trace straight lines, but those red lines roughly go over the walls (you can see where I got off my ability to trace on the right side). Those are 10-15 foot walls with razor wire, there are 3rd party heavily armed contractors doing security around and any entry by car (and most people, including USCs can't just enter by car) has soldiers, dogs and undercarriage mirrors.
Other than that, they have a soccer field, basketball court, 6 lane+ pool, tennis courts, massive green spaces in th emiddle of a fairly urban city (and they already are positioned in and about some of the more wealthy parts of the country.
You may remember that Ecuador allowed Julian Assange to stay in their British embassy, so not only is this a huge breach of norms and international law but also very hypocritical.
How legit are the claims of corruption against the guy they arrested? I'm assuming not very at all given the context, but I'm curious.
Either way, eesh. What a way to torch your international credibility
It doesn't matter - this is Something That Is Not Done and a violation of diplomatic treaties that form the backbone of the modern diplomatic order. To give an example of how serious this is, back in 1984, the Libyan Embassy responded to protestors outside their embassy by opening fire on them, killing several people (including a London police officer.) In response, the British government cordoned off the embassy, requested that the individual(s) involved be surrendered to the authorities, and when that was rebuffed they severed diplomatic ties and declared the Libyan diplomatic contingent persona non grata, expelling them from the UK. (The video linked above has more details on the incident.) At no time was a raid of the embassy even considered.
To be clear, i'm saying Ecuador has torched their intenritoanl crediblity - regardless of wether the guy was corrupt or not, this was a Dumb Fucking Move.
It’s one of those ancient taboos you just don’t do*. You don’t imprison/kill messengers or ambassadors, you don’t shoot the drummer boy. A person approaching with a white flag does not get shot…
*Yes, I know countries break those rules all the time. But without those taboos, war and diplomacy would be worse.
It's iterated prisoner's dilemma. The only sane approach is a trusting one, because the moment someone breaks trust, you basically have to break trust back least you get screwed.
I've been meaning to post about this for awhile but it's been busy so I guess now is a good a time as any. One thing to keep in mind right now and something that may be relevant to the raid but is at least relevant to Ecuador in general, is that Ecuador is going through a huge crisis right now. Massively increased violence in a country that was until very recently one of the calmest and least violent in the region. Gangs took over prisons, hospitals, TV stations, etc back during December/January. It's just been a complete shitshow as the government has gradually been loosing control of the security situation. They've been in a state of emergency for months now and afaik haven't walked by basically declaring themselves at war with the gangs behind the problem.
In the 1990s, Ecuador’s drug trade “was controlled top-down by the FARC” — the Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia, the Marxist guerrilla group that waged a 50-year struggle against the Colombian government — and “there wasn’t a ton of competition and there weren’t really any clashes with the Ecuadorean state” says Will Freeman, a fellow for Latin America studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. “It was a stable situation.”
Then in 2016, the FARC largely demobilized — a historic peace process for Colombia, but also one that created a power vacuum in northern Ecuador. Simultaneously, cocaine demand started shifting drastically, declining in the US and surging in Europe, where since 2016 cocaine seizures have quadrupled, according to Freeman. “That’s made control of ports much more important,” he says, as cocaine headed for Europe is loaded into shipping containers. “Obviously, you’re not flying little planes from Colombia to France.”
And, well, Ecuador has some great ports for cocaine smugglers — specifically Guayaquil on the Pacific coast, the country’s largest port city and now the epicenter of the violent crisis.
This joint power vacuum and massive trafficking opportunity invited foreign groups like Mexican cartels and Venezuelan gangs to play a larger role in Ecuador’s drug trade. Even the Albanian mafia, Freeman says, capitalized on the FARC’s demobilization and flooded into Guayaquil to set up shop in the 2010s.
Ecuador’s two largest gangs, Los Lobos and Los Choneros, had long maintained an uneasy peace, but assassinations of gang leaders in 2020 sparked a power struggle. Since then, the groups have rapidly splintered into factions vying for control of territory, particularly Guayaquil, says Glaeldys González Calanche, a fellow at the International Crisis Group.
Basically the combination of FARC demobilizing and the cocaine market moving overseas to Europe instead of just up towards the US has created an enormous shift in the situation in the area. As a result new groups are moving in and fighting the existing groups over control of new types of territory. Specifically, ports. So very recently a ton of gangs old and new have decided to start fighting over control of Ecuador and the result is, well, what you expect.
Car Wash has been the event that has defined Latin American politics over the last decade. Basically, Brazilian construction company Odebrecht (which is why is called the Odebrecht case) being used as a huge money laundering operation by getting public contracts and then doing kickbacks to politicians. Lots of people got arrested for it. Then the usual, people got mad their favorite corrupt politician got arrested, lots of screaming about foreign interference and sovereignity and blah blah had to release some people thanks to political pressure.
Lava jato was a right wing plot from the start, you dont have to "give it to them". And if there was screaming about foreign interferences is because there is proof of international interference.
Yes, with a quick verbal "boom." You take a man's peko, you deny him his dab, all that is left is to rise up and tear down the walls of Jericho with a ".....not!" -TexiKen
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FencingsaxIt is difficult to get a man to understand, when his salary depends upon his not understandingGNU Terry PratchettRegistered Userregular
I mean, I don't think Bolsanaro needed outside influence to fuck with elections.
Car Wash has been the event that has defined Latin American politics over the last decade. Basically, Brazilian construction company Odebrecht (which is why is called the Odebrecht case) being used as a huge money laundering operation by getting public contracts and then doing kickbacks to politicians. Lots of people got arrested for it. Then the usual, people got mad their favorite corrupt politician got arrested, lots of screaming about foreign interference and sovereignity and blah blah had to release some people thanks to political pressure.
Lava jato was a right wing plot from the start, you dont have to "give it to them". And if there was screaming about foreign interferences is because there is proof of international interference.
International interference from who and in what way?
Also my understanding was that Car Wash had political motivations but also the people in question all actually did the crimes they were charged with.
I mean, I don't think Bolsanaro needed outside influence to fuck with elections.
But you agree that there was international interference in the operation that disqualified Bolsonaro´s biggest threats for the 2018 election? You just dont know the magnitude of the interference. If that´s what you mean, then I agree.
Yes, with a quick verbal "boom." You take a man's peko, you deny him his dab, all that is left is to rise up and tear down the walls of Jericho with a ".....not!" -TexiKen
Also, huge dengue epidemic, threatening to get worse thanks to longer summers and weaker winters. About 200.000 cases in Argentina, and about 1 million in Brazil in 2024.
Yes, with a quick verbal "boom." You take a man's peko, you deny him his dab, all that is left is to rise up and tear down the walls of Jericho with a ".....not!" -TexiKen
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FencingsaxIt is difficult to get a man to understand, when his salary depends upon his not understandingGNU Terry PratchettRegistered Userregular
I mean, I don't think Bolsanaro needed outside influence to fuck with elections.
But you agree that there was international interference in the operation that disqualified Bolsonaro´s biggest threats for the 2018 election? You just dont know the magnitude of the interference. If that´s what you mean, then I agree.
No, I think it was Brazilian interference primarily that fucked their elections.
Car Wash has been the event that has defined Latin American politics over the last decade. Basically, Brazilian construction company Odebrecht (which is why is called the Odebrecht case) being used as a huge money laundering operation by getting public contracts and then doing kickbacks to politicians. Lots of people got arrested for it. Then the usual, people got mad their favorite corrupt politician got arrested, lots of screaming about foreign interference and sovereignity and blah blah had to release some people thanks to political pressure.
Lava jato was a right wing plot from the start, you dont have to "give it to them". And if there was screaming about foreign interferences is because there is proof of international interference.
International interference from who and in what way?
Also my understanding was that Car Wash had political motivations but also the people in question all actually did the crimes they were charged with.
They did, which is why several politicians outside Brazil, including former Presidents (!) got arrested for it.
A tribunal in Ecuador on Friday ruled the dramatic arrest of former Vice President Jorge Glas last week was illegal, but said he must remain in jail due to his previous convictions, a decision Glas' lawyer said his team will appeal.
Glas, twice convicted of corruption and now facing fresh charges, was arrested a week ago during a raid by police on Mexico's Quito embassy, where he had been living since December.
The arrest crowned a period of rising diplomatic tension between Ecuador and Mexico, though each country's government has since said it is open to repairing relations.
Mexico's granting of asylum to Glas violates international laws which prohibit asylum for people facing criminal charges, Ecuador has argued.
Prior to the arrest, Quito declared the Mexican ambassador persona non grata, citing "unfortunate" comments by the Mexican president about election violence.
Mexico has called on the United Nations to suspend Ecuador if the country does not apologize for breaching the embassy.
As indicated in that last section there, it seems like the raid was itself part of a growing argument between Ecuador and Mexico that had already been ongoing.
A tribunal in Ecuador on Friday ruled the dramatic arrest of former Vice President Jorge Glas last week was illegal, but said he must remain in jail due to his previous convictions, a decision Glas' lawyer said his team will appeal.
Glas, twice convicted of corruption and now facing fresh charges, was arrested a week ago during a raid by police on Mexico's Quito embassy, where he had been living since December.
The arrest crowned a period of rising diplomatic tension between Ecuador and Mexico, though each country's government has since said it is open to repairing relations.
Mexico's granting of asylum to Glas violates international laws which prohibit asylum for people facing criminal charges, Ecuador has argued.
Prior to the arrest, Quito declared the Mexican ambassador persona non grata, citing "unfortunate" comments by the Mexican president about election violence.
Mexico has called on the United Nations to suspend Ecuador if the country does not apologize for breaching the embassy.
As indicated in that last section there, it seems like the raid was itself part of a growing argument between Ecuador and Mexico that had already been ongoing.
Which doesn't change the fact that Ecuador broke the sort of rules that exist to stop countries from shooting at each other. Also, Ecuador is the last country that gets to lecture anyone about granting asylum to someone facing criminal charges.
A tribunal in Ecuador on Friday ruled the dramatic arrest of former Vice President Jorge Glas last week was illegal, but said he must remain in jail due to his previous convictions, a decision Glas' lawyer said his team will appeal.
Glas, twice convicted of corruption and now facing fresh charges, was arrested a week ago during a raid by police on Mexico's Quito embassy, where he had been living since December.
The arrest crowned a period of rising diplomatic tension between Ecuador and Mexico, though each country's government has since said it is open to repairing relations.
Mexico's granting of asylum to Glas violates international laws which prohibit asylum for people facing criminal charges, Ecuador has argued.
Prior to the arrest, Quito declared the Mexican ambassador persona non grata, citing "unfortunate" comments by the Mexican president about election violence.
Mexico has called on the United Nations to suspend Ecuador if the country does not apologize for breaching the embassy.
As indicated in that last section there, it seems like the raid was itself part of a growing argument between Ecuador and Mexico that had already been ongoing.
Which doesn't change the fact that Ecuador broke the sort of rules that exist to stop countries from shooting at each other. Also, Ecuador is the last country that gets to lecture anyone about granting asylum to someone facing criminal charges.
Again, the government that did that is no longer in power. That was two presidents ago, and Ecuador had a shift on foreign policy since then. Assange was given asylum by Correa.
First guy after Correa, Moreno, had his own scandals published on Wikileaks and didn't particulary want to deal with this mess on the first place so he gave Assange up the first chance he got, which is why Assange is now is rotting on a max security jail in the UK. This is now the Noboa administration.
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True, but the question is "And now what?". So far, the plan seems to be to just close borders and let the biggest warlord take over, already being propped up by Russia Today, of course.
So, you know, typical "fuck it" "solution" after trying everything else aka the usual for Haiti.
General rule is 1 occupation soldier for every 40 inhabitants, that is roughly 300k troops in the case of Haiti. Even if you think you can make do with a higher ratio(we tried to do Iraq with 1:160 and that went...not great), you are still talking a major military commitment.
I would suspect she's fine. From a strictly "War" standpoint, not only is the DR no pushover relative to Haiti, but it's a very close US ally (as I'm sure you are aware). It's hard to say more about criminals filtering over the border and causing havoc, but I really do believe she'll be fine.
Eh. It'd have to get pretty bad before the Dominican decides it's worth sticking it's dick into that hornet's nest. There's a lot of instability on your border you can tolerate without it being worse then sending troops into a failed state.
It's hard because while my wife has sympathy for what's happened to Haiti's people and children over the years, she has had several bad experiences (stuff like basically being mini-kidnapped by a Taxi driver who intentionally drove the wrong way and then tried to shake her down for more money, and kicked her out on a random street corner when she wouldn't pay) that have her very much in favor of the border lockdown. Most people are just trying to make a living, but it only takes a few bad ones to make one more hesitant to lend a helping hand.
I wasn't thinking of the DR but just every war hawk in the US ready to find an excuse to send troops somewhere.
Even the US is going to be leery of sending troops into Haiti for historical reasons. And Biden wants to send troops into Haiti right before an election about as much as he wants to send them into Gaza right before an election and for basically the same reason.
Nah, hawks are always trying to bomb somewhere, but Haiti is signing up for exactly the kind of situations hawks always pretend won't happen when they are pushing for intervention somewhere. It's explicitly nation building.
Hard to imagine but the option preferred by the US won like all the votes!
Except the president, of course, he released a video focused on the families of the military and the violence from the "terrorists", called the whole conflict a Dirty War, wich is a term coined by the military regime to excuse their extrajudicial kidnapping and killing of dissenters and then said that both sides* were "bad" but fighting for what they thought was the best for the country. And then vicepresident twitted saying that it wasnt really 30.000 victims.
Thats some fascist stuff, like straight out of fascism 101.
*Both sides being, the state intelligence agency, police and military vs. people trying to resist them.
Edit: the holiday is called "The Day of Remembrance for Truth and Justice", the fucking president, Milei´s video was called something like "The Day of Remembrance for Truth and Justice. Complete"
The US and anti-socialism have a LOT to answer for in Latin America.
https://www.cnn.com/2024/04/06/americas/ecuador-vice-president-arrest-mexico-embassy-diplomatic-tensions-intl-hnk/index.html
You may remember that Ecuador allowed Julian Assange to stay in their British embassy, so not only is this a huge breach of norms and international law but also very hypocritical.
battletag: Millin#1360
Nice chart to figure out how honest a news source is.
This mess is going to have a lot of unintended consequences, I do not think that Noboa truly understands the consequences of what he just did.
At the very least, you can assume Ecuador's diplomats no longer have reliable diplomatic immunity ANYWHERE.
That's the bare minimum. This is an act of war.
Just picking two:
And so on and so on.
How legit are the claims of corruption against the guy they arrested? I'm assuming not very at all given the context, but I'm curious.
Either way, eesh. What a way to torch your international credibility
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https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN2A407C/
Wondering if they even made a good faith attempt at trying to persuade Mexico to hand him over or if a bunch of idiots decided they were allowed to be fuck ups for reasons.
battletag: Millin#1360
Nice chart to figure out how honest a news source is.
It doesn't matter - this is Something That Is Not Done and a violation of diplomatic treaties that form the backbone of the modern diplomatic order. To give an example of how serious this is, back in 1984, the Libyan Embassy responded to protestors outside their embassy by opening fire on them, killing several people (including a London police officer.) In response, the British government cordoned off the embassy, requested that the individual(s) involved be surrendered to the authorities, and when that was rebuffed they severed diplomatic ties and declared the Libyan diplomatic contingent persona non grata, expelling them from the UK. (The video linked above has more details on the incident.) At no time was a raid of the embassy even considered.
That should give you an idea of how outside the norms of diplomacy this was.
While Car Wash might have started as a corruption probe, it quickly got corrupted itself as the Brazilian right wing started blatantly using it to attack the Brazilian left after failing at the ballot - which is why there's been backlash from the public. Which is why this is a mess that has defined Latin American politics, because it's become yet another part of the political battlefield.
Frankly, I wouldn't be suprfised if he was guilty, but it was just business as usual and now his opponents are going after him for stuff they do themselves.
(Google maps entry: https://www.google.com/maps/@13.6645383,-89.2573375,758m/data=!3m1!1e3?entry=ttu)
Pardon my lack of ability to trace straight lines, but those red lines roughly go over the walls (you can see where I got off my ability to trace on the right side). Those are 10-15 foot walls with razor wire, there are 3rd party heavily armed contractors doing security around and any entry by car (and most people, including USCs can't just enter by car) has soldiers, dogs and undercarriage mirrors.
Other than that, they have a soccer field, basketball court, 6 lane+ pool, tennis courts, massive green spaces in th emiddle of a fairly urban city (and they already are positioned in and about some of the more wealthy parts of the country.
This adds nothing but possibly some color here.
To be clear, i'm saying Ecuador has torched their intenritoanl crediblity - regardless of wether the guy was corrupt or not, this was a Dumb Fucking Move.
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*Yes, I know countries break those rules all the time. But without those taboos, war and diplomacy would be worse.
WoW
Dear Satan.....
Which goes incredibly bad places.
What the fuck Ecuador was thinking I do not know
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Ironically enough this all traces back to Colombia making peace with the FARC:
https://www.vox.com/world-politics/2024/1/11/24034891/ecuador-drugs-cocaine-cartels-violence-murder-daniel-naboa-columbia-crime
Basically the combination of FARC demobilizing and the cocaine market moving overseas to Europe instead of just up towards the US has created an enormous shift in the situation in the area. As a result new groups are moving in and fighting the existing groups over control of new types of territory. Specifically, ports. So very recently a ton of gangs old and new have decided to start fighting over control of Ecuador and the result is, well, what you expect.
Lava jato was a right wing plot from the start, you dont have to "give it to them". And if there was screaming about foreign interferences is because there is proof of international interference.
International interference from who and in what way?
Also my understanding was that Car Wash had political motivations but also the people in question all actually did the crimes they were charged with.
But you agree that there was international interference in the operation that disqualified Bolsonaro´s biggest threats for the 2018 election? You just dont know the magnitude of the interference. If that´s what you mean, then I agree.
No, I think it was Brazilian interference primarily that fucked their elections.
They did, which is why several politicians outside Brazil, including former Presidents (!) got arrested for it.
https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/ecuador-ex-vp-glas-must-stay-jail-despite-illegal-arrest-says-court-2024-04-12/
As indicated in that last section there, it seems like the raid was itself part of a growing argument between Ecuador and Mexico that had already been ongoing.
Which doesn't change the fact that Ecuador broke the sort of rules that exist to stop countries from shooting at each other. Also, Ecuador is the last country that gets to lecture anyone about granting asylum to someone facing criminal charges.
Again, the government that did that is no longer in power. That was two presidents ago, and Ecuador had a shift on foreign policy since then. Assange was given asylum by Correa.
First guy after Correa, Moreno, had his own scandals published on Wikileaks and didn't particulary want to deal with this mess on the first place so he gave Assange up the first chance he got, which is why Assange is now is rotting on a max security jail in the UK. This is now the Noboa administration.