Tim Kaine and Mike Pence: Two men arguing over whether women have a right to control their own bodies. That's for us to decide.
So if they're arguing, doesn't that mean one side is in favour of women having the right to control their own bodies? Is that not good anymore? Is this that newfangled sarcasm thing? Like standing in front of the Antifaschistischer Schutzwall and saying it works?
Washington, DC- Hillary Clinton has had a good run in polling since the 1st debate. She has solidified her lead and improved her favorability ratings. Trump, on the other hand, has had a rough go lately. However, the adverse news cycles have not significantly depressed his favorability ratings or vote share relative to just before the 1st debate.
General Election Trends
Hillary Clinton continues to pull ahead of Donald Trump. Among likely voters, the margin has increased by a point with Clinton up 7 percentage points at 44% to Trump at 37%.
A significant number of likely voters continue to support alternatives to the major two candidates with 18% saying they will vote third party (9%), would not vote (3%) or don’t know (6%).
Clinton also leads amongst likely voters on the 4-way ballot, which includes Gary Johnson and Jill Stein (Clinton 42%; Trump 36%; Johnson 8%; and Stein 2%).
Clinton’s favorability score improved in the last week to 50% amongst registered voters, while Trump’s favorability score has also increased by 1-percantage point to 44%.
Where did the numbers in that tweet come from?
You have to go through a few links to the Ipsos/Reuters page with the state results, but they're here.
Much like the Google Consumer Surveys we were discussing earlier today, the Ipsos/Reuters "States of the Nation" poll is a national poll which they then break out by the respondents' home states. But that process seems to have some unresolved methodological issues as it's leading to a larger number of outliers than you would have normally expected.
So my brother has... thoughts on how Hillary should win the election. I'm not even sure where to begin with my response. Certainly his portrayal of voter priorities seems way off the mark. This in response to me discussing how Dems need to landslide to avoid another Trump:
Your second paragraph regarding not letting trump become an anomaly is bang on the money, unfortunately that has literally been Hillary's strategy, to the detriment of down ticket democrats. She's been asked specifically not to pursue that strategy but she can't help herself... she banged on about helping down ticket dems in the primary and now she's screwing them, because ultimate it's a strategy that helps her, and that all she cares about, and that is why people just don't like her.
If she wants people to vote for her, give them the policies they are asking for. It's so freaking simple. She keeps on trying to appeal to republican voters but if she just focussed more on progressive ideals she would win. Those issues are demonstrably more popular with the majority of Americans, especially with millennials - the people she's losing, and I don't just mean college students, I mean under 40's. The top 3 most important issues to under 40's are student debt, climate change and getting money out of politics. She barely even mentions these on the campaign trail. Money out of politics wasn't even mentioned in the debate.
Ok, She did just revamp her student debt program to match Bernies, and to her credit the plan is actually now better than either of theirs was seperatetly, but she doesn't mention it ever! Because she doesn't actually want to do it, because she is just not a true progressive and everyone knows it. It's all window dressing. Millennials grew up with the internet, fact checking is built into our DNA. Just this week new tapes were released of her talking to donors and whilst nothing really bad was said, she did admit that she was a center left political AND a centre right politician, but in the primaries she tried to tell us all she was more liberal than Sanders and then attacking him for not even being a true democrat!? Bill Clinton just came out completely against Obamacare last week for god sake.
What I'm getting at, is that just how you think a small Hillary win will show the republicans they can can amp up the bigotry next time round, I think a big win for Hillary will embolden the democratic establishment to shove another centre left/right democrat down our throat in 2020 and then we will lose, and we will lose big, because in 8 years we'll have more new millennials and they will be even more liberal. The democratic party needs to catch up. Hillary's running Bills triangulation strategy of the 90's, which was a great strategy for then but in this climate, it's almost backward.
That being said everyone I know is voting Clinton, even a couple of Republicans, but unfortunately you can't force them to be excited about it, thats on her. So yes she will probably win, but if she wants to win big, she's just got to be a better candidate and read the electorate better. As Colin Powell said 'she ruins everything with hubris'. She needs to get out of here own way, be honest, and fight for the policies we want, not the ones her advisors tell her will win the election - because they have been proven very wrong.
Look honestly I just don't think there's any way to engage with people who play "what they really believe" games without direct exposure to the candidate in a favorable way, and even that's unlikely to shift them. If he is convinced both that Clinton needs to talk about policy and shift her focus towards the left, but that the way she talks about policy doesn't count and that she doesn't believe in any left-leaning policies she proposes, he's set up a no-win situation to justify continual dislike of Clinton.
I know people are shocked by the comparison because the Berlin Wall was horrible from a humanitarian perspective. But just from a practical, "did it work" perspective, isn't the comparison still way off the mark? The Berlin Wall was only 96 miles long, and its entire length was guarded 24 hours a day by armed guards. The US-Mexico border is 1,989 miles long. It would be hilariously impractical to even build a wall that long, let alone station 24-hour armed guards along its entire length.
General Election Trends
Hillary Clinton leads in states equaling 246 votes while Donald Trump leads in states equaling 180 electoral college votes with 112 votes up for grabs.
That said this seems a bit off, 538 hasn't had Clinton less than 3.5 ahead in WI all season(and +6 in aggregate currently), and thinking it has tightened to a toss-up after the debate seems odd. Both Dem and GOP Senate races have pulled money out of the state on the assumption that it's pretty much locked in for Clinton for president and Feingold for the senate at this point.
Same with Michigan which they(538) have +6 in aggregate, and ipsos is calling a toss up.
tinwhiskers on
0
Options
GnomeTankWhat the what?Portland, OregonRegistered Userregular
Last time I checked the only demographic group Trump led was uneducated whites, though that could have changed.
I think college white males also.
College aged, or college educated? Different things.
Almost certainly college-educated. Education is a common demographic for crosstabs, but 18-22 is virtually unknown as an age group by itself. 18-25, 18-29, 18-34, even 18-49, but not 18-22, partly because that includes very few voters.
Some demo breakdowns there. Trump has a slight edge with college educated white men and non-college educated women. Obviously he has a big tremendous lead with non-college educated white men. He trails everywhere else.
All of which is pretty much what you'd expect.
@VishNub awesome, thank you very much for the info/citation.
Native Nevadans pronounce the second syllable of their state name using the /æ/ vowel of "bad". Many from outside the Western United States pronounce it with the /ɑː/ vowel of "father" /nəˈvɑːdə/. Although the latter pronunciation is closer to the Spanish pronunciation, it is not the pronunciation preferred by Nevadans.
I'm right, Trump's wrong. But really, of all the things Trump has done to get upset about, this one seems pretty superficial.
Regardless of how you say it in your part of the world the right way is always how you say it there. Just like you live in Oregon and Washington not oREgone or Warshington.
+3
Options
ChanusHarbinger of the Spicy Rooster ApocalypseThe Flames of a Thousand Collapsed StarsRegistered Userregular
Native Nevadans pronounce the second syllable of their state name using the /æ/ vowel of "bad". Many from outside the Western United States pronounce it with the /ɑː/ vowel of "father" /nəˈvɑːdə/. Although the latter pronunciation is closer to the Spanish pronunciation, it is not the pronunciation preferred by Nevadans.
I'm right, Trump's wrong. But really, of all the things Trump has done to get upset about, this one seems pretty superficial.
Ha, sounds like everyone up here in Canada that I know pronounces it the way the locals do. That's just kinda funny.
And you have to keep in mind all of the Bin Laden stuff was going on as he was speaking
Craziness
There's a hell of a movie action sequence to be made from that. Cut back and forth between the SEAL team fucking up Bin Laden's compound, and the President et al verbally savaging Trump.
Commander Zoom on
+15
Options
jmcdonaldI voted, did you?DC(ish)Registered Userregular
Have I missed any post-debate response from the Trump campaign or its shitposting spambots?
Nah. I popped over to their hive and the two things they're going on about are how one of their prominent users got to stand on stage with Trump at a rally and how the Clinton Foundation refiled some tax returns from 2012-2014 without being requested to and it's not yet clear they were legally required to, thereby PROVING their corruptness.
For Chertoff, it’s also a question of Trump’s impulse control. “This issue came up at the debate about Miss Universe,” he said. “Not only did he seem at the debate to lose his temper, but to get up at 3:30 a.m. and reach for your smartphone is to me a hysterical reaction. If you’re president, the button you reach for is not the Twitter button; it’s the nuclear button.”
+2
Options
GoodKingJayIIIThey wanna get mygold on the ceilingRegistered Userregular
Native Nevadans pronounce the second syllable of their state name using the /æ/ vowel of "bad". Many from outside the Western United States pronounce it with the /ɑː/ vowel of "father" /nəˈvɑːdə/. Although the latter pronunciation is closer to the Spanish pronunciation, it is not the pronunciation preferred by Nevadans.
I'm right, Trump's wrong. But really, of all the things Trump has done to get upset about, this one seems pretty superficial.
It's not a big deal, but the fact that he did it as part of an anecdote about clueless people not knowing how to pronounce Nevada really makes it shine as yet another example of Trump being a clueless goose.
+12
Options
Giggles_FunsworthBlight on DiscourseBay Area SprawlRegistered Userregular
But private polling by both parties shows an even more precipitous drop, especially among independent voters, moderate Republicans and women, according to a dozen strategists from both parties who spoke on the condition of anonymity because the data was confidential.
Self-righteousness is incompatible with coalition building.
It's largely more of the same, with some digging on Trump's personal finances early in his career. It turns out that daddy didn't just front him a ton of money, he kept bailing him out over and over again as terrible ideas kept playing out in predictable ways.
The bottom line—no pun intended—is this: Trump is not a self-made man. He is a self-made disaster who only avoided personal bankruptcy thanks to his father being there to clean up his messes. In other words, if Trump really was the businessman he pretends to be—an executive who made it on his own through sheer grit and determination, rather than through his family’s ability to bail him out—today he would not be the Republican nominee for president, but instead just another forgotten footnote in the annals of New York real estate development.
I feel like this is something everybody already knows.
Republican voters don't.
My mother just found out about Trump's pattern of stiffing small buisness owners like last week on Facebook. A small buisness owner herself, it immediately took her from weak Trump support in the vein of "well I dislike Hillary more" to, and I'm quoting here, "Trump can eat a bag of dicks".
The shit that everyone here already knows isn't what everyone knows.
Bingo. This is why it's important for the press to keep repeating scandals. They can't just toss one article out there and claim "balance." They have to hammer just as hard at all of Trump's real scandals as they have on Hillary's non-scandals.
"If you divide the whole world into just enemies and friends, you'll end up destroying everything" --Nausicaa of the Valley of Wind
What is that PIN Kaine is wearing? Red DOT on White Field, Gold border. Ho Chi Minh? Viet Cong? Can anybody identify Kaine's lapel pin?
OK,Mr. J.ROB labor guy WHAT IS THE PIN KAINE IS WEARING? Leftist secret squirrel stuff? If you recognize the lapel pin, identify it
If Kaine wants to celebrate the Marines, he can wear a flag lapel -celebrating all U.S. Military including VETS dying in VA neglect
I really fucking hate this jingo bullshit. Take a knee Corsi, it looks less foolish.
Shouldn't someone who's by jingo know what a service flag is?
If we did a NCAA tournament of dumbest right wing people, Corsi would be a strong #1 seed. Unless we made a conspiracy bracket, in which case he might be #2 to Jones.
EDIT: The regions would be "Nominees and Elected Officials" "Fox News" "Pundits" and "Racists and Other Conspiracy Theorists" I think.
enlightenedbum on
Self-righteousness is incompatible with coalition building.
What is that PIN Kaine is wearing? Red DOT on White Field, Gold border. Ho Chi Minh? Viet Cong? Can anybody identify Kaine's lapel pin?
OK,Mr. J.ROB labor guy WHAT IS THE PIN KAINE IS WEARING? Leftist secret squirrel stuff? If you recognize the lapel pin, identify it
If Kaine wants to celebrate the Marines, he can wear a flag lapel -celebrating all U.S. Military including VETS dying in VA neglect
I really fucking hate this jingo bullshit. Take a knee Corsi, it looks less foolish.
Shouldn't someone who's by jingo know what a service flag is?
If we did a NCAA tournament of dumbest right wing people, Corsi would be a strong #1 seed. Unless we made a conspiracy bracket, in which case he might be #2 to Jones.
EDIT: The regions would be "Nominees and Elected Officials" "Fox News" "Pundits" and "Racists and Other Conspiracy Theorists" I think.
Which one would Huckabee go to?
Or is this like how they put Virginia in the Midwest bracket?
One thing we've brought up before is that part of Trump's path required a massive landslide amongst while voters. Generally amongst white males, but let us be clear here, his whole strategy has been to milk the cow dry of every single hidden drop of white purity. The ultimate silent majority of untapped voting potential. The common clay of the new west. You know: morans all those people who couldn't be motivated to vote against that black guy.
Donald Trump’s strategy in this campaign has been fairly clear from the beginning: Drive up Republican support among white voters in order to compensate for the GOP’s shrinking share among the growing nonwhite portion of the electorate. And Trump has succeeded in overperforming among a certain slice of white voters, those without a college degree. But overall, the strategy isn’t working. Trump has a smaller lead among white voters than Mitt Romney did in 2012, and Trump’s margin seems to be falling from where it was when the general election began.
Four years ago, Romney beat President Obama among white voters by 17 percentage points, according to pre-election polls. That was the largest winning margin among white voters for any losing presidential candidate since at least 1948. Of course, even if Trump did just as well as Romney did, it would help him less, given that the 2016 electorate will probably be more diverse that 2012’s. And to win — even if the electorate remained as white as it was four years ago — Trump would need a margin of 22 percentage points or more among white voters.
But Trump isn’t even doing as well as Romney. Trump is winning white voters by just 13 percentage points, according to an average of the last five live-interviewer national surveys. He doesn’t reach the magic 22 percentage point margin in a single one of these polls.
Posts
So if they're arguing, doesn't that mean one side is in favour of women having the right to control their own bodies? Is that not good anymore? Is this that newfangled sarcasm thing? Like standing in front of the Antifaschistischer Schutzwall and saying it works?
I will never get tired of the angry grumpy baby face has during the entire roasting of him in that dinner.
Just a grumpy fucking giant fox headed baby
You have to go through a few links to the Ipsos/Reuters page with the state results, but they're here.
Much like the Google Consumer Surveys we were discussing earlier today, the Ipsos/Reuters "States of the Nation" poll is a national poll which they then break out by the respondents' home states. But that process seems to have some unresolved methodological issues as it's leading to a larger number of outliers than you would have normally expected.
Look honestly I just don't think there's any way to engage with people who play "what they really believe" games without direct exposure to the candidate in a favorable way, and even that's unlikely to shift them. If he is convinced both that Clinton needs to talk about policy and shift her focus towards the left, but that the way she talks about policy doesn't count and that she doesn't believe in any left-leaning policies she proposes, he's set up a no-win situation to justify continual dislike of Clinton.
I know people are shocked by the comparison because the Berlin Wall was horrible from a humanitarian perspective. But just from a practical, "did it work" perspective, isn't the comparison still way off the mark? The Berlin Wall was only 96 miles long, and its entire length was guarded 24 hours a day by armed guards. The US-Mexico border is 1,989 miles long. It would be hilariously impractical to even build a wall that long, let alone station 24-hour armed guards along its entire length.
Man this ad is pretty brutal
The Cuban vote is probably helping a little.
is the actual poll I think.
But he can't link to that cause the page for the press release about it https://www.ipsos.com/2016-us-elections-hillary-clinton-leads-states-equaling-246-votes-october-3
That said this seems a bit off, 538 hasn't had Clinton less than 3.5 ahead in WI all season(and +6 in aggregate currently), and thinking it has tightened to a toss-up after the debate seems odd. Both Dem and GOP Senate races have pulled money out of the state on the assumption that it's pretty much locked in for Clinton for president and Feingold for the senate at this point.
Same with Michigan which they(538) have +6 in aggregate, and ipsos is calling a toss up.
@VishNub awesome, thank you very much for the info/citation.
Regardless of how you say it in your part of the world the right way is always how you say it there. Just like you live in Oregon and Washington not oREgone or Warshington.
"i'll show them all!" he cries, shaking his tiny fist
That's barely a concept.
Wowww, Trump is not happy during that video.
I'm sure he's still nursing that grudge. He was savaged there.
...was there an old white man sitting between Mr. and Mrs. Obama?
And gosh, I forgot that Seth ripped into Trump like that the same year Obama ripped into him.
Yeah, that dinner is totally why he's running for president this year.
The President had some good dunks too
They tried to bury us. They didn't know that we were seeds. 2018 Midterms. Get your shit together.
Please, Don. Play your dominance games with a state you need to win. This will surely work in your favor.
Craziness
antifreeze for blood
meanwhile trump "spent 50% of his thought process on his mike"
Ha, sounds like everyone up here in Canada that I know pronounces it the way the locals do. That's just kinda funny.
There's a hell of a movie action sequence to be made from that. Cut back and forth between the SEAL team fucking up Bin Laden's compound, and the President et al verbally savaging Trump.
stephen colbert has some thoughts about donnie and his lack of courage
Nah. I popped over to their hive and the two things they're going on about are how one of their prominent users got to stand on stage with Trump at a rally and how the Clinton Foundation refiled some tax returns from 2012-2014 without being requested to and it's not yet clear they were legally required to, thereby PROVING their corruptness.
I thought he only had Steves.
Relevant to this election, there were concerns about the timing with the WHCD in the Situation Room, at which point Hillary looked up and said:
I really fucking hate this jingo bullshit. Take a knee Corsi, it looks less foolish.
Michael Chertoff the lead prosecutor for Whitewater endorsed Clinton.
https://bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-10-03/clinton-s-former-prosecutor-michael-chertoff-endorses-her
This is the same shit someone tried with him after the electionDNC.
You'd think if the GOP learned anything from the past 18 months, it'd be "don't insult the father of a serviceperson."
Let them. It says his jingo is way bigger than theirs anyway. Assholes.
http://www.salon.com/2016/10/05/kaines-lapel-pin-honors-his-soldier-son/
It's not a big deal, but the fact that he did it as part of an anecdote about clueless people not knowing how to pronounce Nevada really makes it shine as yet another example of Trump being a clueless goose.
This is applicable af in America right now. Hello Millennials that won't vote for Clinton.
Shouldn't someone who's by jingo know what a service flag is?
Bingo. This is why it's important for the press to keep repeating scandals. They can't just toss one article out there and claim "balance." They have to hammer just as hard at all of Trump's real scandals as they have on Hillary's non-scandals.
If we did a NCAA tournament of dumbest right wing people, Corsi would be a strong #1 seed. Unless we made a conspiracy bracket, in which case he might be #2 to Jones.
EDIT: The regions would be "Nominees and Elected Officials" "Fox News" "Pundits" and "Racists and Other Conspiracy Theorists" I think.
Which one would Huckabee go to?
Or is this like how they put Virginia in the Midwest bracket?
How's that working so far? Trump is doing worse than Romney did with white voters.
But at least he loves the poorly educated.