Please oh please let Clinton get 400+ electoral votes.
Mathematically, how quickly can she get to 270? At what point can you be declared a winner before mid- and western states start reporting?
If you just want to know whether she's winning or not... as early as 7pm Eastern. Here's a cool chart I found from 2008 that shows what time states were called:
In 2008 at 7 PM, McCain only had one state (KY) called for him. GA, IN, SC and VA were all "too close to call". And that's the tipoff that Obama is doing very well. If we see a repeat of that, Trump is done.
You basically get extra confidence as the night goes on. Pennsylvania will be pretty solid around 8-830ish.
Extra states being called for Trump early would be the bad news. Otherwise it'll probably be after 9 when one of the critical states gets called (NC, FL, OH).
So she could theoretically win before polls close in California? That would not be great for turnout here.
Ohio was called an hour and a half before CA polls closed in '08. That was game regardless of whether the 'official' projection was made.
I feel like there is a fairly small number of people who would pay enough attention to know when states are being called but didn't actually vote yet. If turnout is depressed because "it's a foregone conclusion" it'll be the Clinton +9 polling average on the 7th or whatever.
0
Doctor DetroitNot a doctorTree townRegistered Userregular
Miss Teen USA, because beauty pageants where not disgusting enough.
Oh, you've never seen Toddlers and Tiaras have you?
Beauty Pageants go all the way down to babies.
+37
LudiousI just wanted a sandwich A temporally dislocated QuiznosRegistered Userregular
i'm willing to bet the miss teen usa won't get much traction. No video. It will make a few headlines but I can't see it being a thing trump will do anything other than deny
I've moved on from hoping Hillary wins this (not being complacent but I think she's got this) to hoping Donald Trump is completely destroyed. I want this run at the Oval Office to ruin him. I want a signal fire lit that tells bigots everywhere that they are not wanted, and their views are never going to be represented in this country's government ever again.
It will get traction if the Dems spin it along with the Howard Stern recording. While not the same incident, if they push it hard enough they could potentially get it to stick.
The difference is that there is no tape of him admitting to it. You can certainly draw the conclusion that it's true based on the Stern recording, but we don't have proof that it happened. Therefore, it will get put in a pile with all of the other accusations made against him to be burned and conveniently forgotten.
If they go on record or appear on one of the nightly news shows on the major networks.
Without someone on video talking about it things like this just don't take off anymore. Look back on the abuse scandals with the NFL last year. No real public outcry until a video came out.
0
IlpalaJust this guy, y'knowTexasRegistered Userregular
Swear to god there's a King of the Hill moment about this that goes pretty much like "You seem like an honest guy and I'd love to believe you, but you don't have pictures. This lady has pictures."
FF XIV - Qih'to Furishu (on Siren), Battle.Net - Ilpala#1975
Switch - SW-7373-3669-3011
Fuck Joe Manchin
So just out of curiosity, what happens if we get a manufactured email showing that clinton somehow got herself out of the line of fire with the emails or similar?
the trump campaign has showed no hesitation to just make stuff up to try and win.
So just out of curiosity, what happens if we get a manufactured email showing that clinton somehow got herself out of the line of fire with the emails or similar?
the trump campaign has showed no hesitation to just make stuff up to try and win.
Foxnews makes it prominent and we drop from a 90% chance of victory to like, 60%.
Yay mailed in my absentee ballot. I know about Gary Johnson and Jill Stein but who the heck is Rocky la Fuente and some Darrel guy on the presidential ticket?
I've moved on from hoping Hillary wins this (not being complacent but I think she's got this) to hoping Donald Trump is completely destroyed. I want this run at the Oval Office to ruin him. I want a signal fire lit that tells bigots everywhere that they are not wanted, and their views are never going to be represented in this country's government ever again.
Haha, no. This election has taught them that they are not alone. The Republicans may get destroyed as a national party but the racist branch has been emboldened. Going to be an ugly decade.
So just out of curiosity, what happens if we get a manufactured email showing that clinton somehow got herself out of the line of fire with the emails or similar?
the trump campaign has showed no hesitation to just make stuff up to try and win.
Foxnews makes it prominent and we drop from a 90% chance of victory to like, 60%.
The people who think the emails are anything are already decidedly not voting for Clinton.
Making up more stuff about the emails isn't going to sway anybody.
So just out of curiosity, what happens if we get a manufactured email showing that clinton somehow got herself out of the line of fire with the emails or similar?
the trump campaign has showed no hesitation to just make stuff up to try and win.
Foxnews makes it prominent and we drop from a 90% chance of victory to like, 60%.
I honestly think that'd more likely just boost Johnsons numbers higher but not high enough to win or anything.
FYI on that 538 map, it doesn't have anything to do with actual recorded votes or polling. It doesn't have anything to do with Bernie or Dems pissed off at the primary or anything.
All it's doing is taking the facts that Clinton is doing better with minorities and college educated whites than Obama 2012, and Trump is doing better with non-college educated whites than Romney 2012... and then mapping out how much each county would change if 20% of those groups shifted. Trump will naturally do better in Obama areas because there's a bigger pool of Obama voters to draw from, which is why the map largely looks like the 2012 election with colors flipped. The brightest red will be in areas that went heavily Obama despite having a less educated populace, hence good chunks of Iowa. The Bay Area is incredibly well educated, so there's not much of a pool for Trump to draw on in this analysis, where he's only pulling from non-college educated whites (again, regardless of how "alt right" this actually is, since it's just a model of one potential factor). There are so few college educated whites in those counties that the Romney voting minorities and college educated whites outweigh the Obama voting non college educated whites
Man, voting is gonna be a bummer now because I'm going to be thinking about the people being paraded to the polls by a band and just be so jealous.
Aren't you in Philly?
We had a Boyz 2 Men cover act jamming outside Ben Franklin High School in 2008 and 2012.
Yea, my polling place is at an old folks home though Best I'll get is two nice old guys outside commenting they're happy someone under 50 is voting and handing me my democratic party suggested ballot thing.
But I can imagine they have a drumline next to them if I work really hard at it?
Let's not forget, he has a pending court case involving child rape. That alone would get any other politician shit canned in an election year.
I don't think I've seen literally anything about that in any form of news media.
That's sort of my point. If that didn't get traction, why would an accusation of him walking in on underage girls?
It doesn't even matter if it's true or not, an allegation of child rape would be the kiss of death for any other campaign just to be associated with that sort of story.
The only reason his sexual assault comments blew up is because there is irrefutable proof that he said those things.
Posts
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nU-8gCNyDVM
credits to @Jeedan
Oh man, I haven't watched the video but the saturation in that preview still is pure trollvana.
Steam: adamjnet
If Glyph posts something pessimistic about Trump I'm calling the Time Police. Something is amiss.
I really like that the web address at the end is in a heavy metal font.
QEDMF xbl: PantsB G+
Thanks, Obama CNN!
Do not engage the Watermelons.
Miss Teen USA, because beauty pageants where not disgusting enough.
Ohio was called an hour and a half before CA polls closed in '08. That was game regardless of whether the 'official' projection was made.
I feel like there is a fairly small number of people who would pay enough attention to know when states are being called but didn't actually vote yet. If turnout is depressed because "it's a foregone conclusion" it'll be the Clinton +9 polling average on the 7th or whatever.
Yeah, Miss Teen USA.
Going forward, these Trump revelations are gonna need to come with a scouring pad and a shower.
This is going to take a day or two for people to digest and then it is going to take off.
The word "underage" changes everything.
Oh, you've never seen Toddlers and Tiaras have you?
Beauty Pageants go all the way down to babies.
look, it's either that or a 25% chance you're gonna get marzipan
and I hate marizpan
Without someone on video talking about it things like this just don't take off anymore. Look back on the abuse scandals with the NFL last year. No real public outcry until a video came out.
Switch - SW-7373-3669-3011
Fuck Joe Manchin
Yeah
For 40% of the country it means Clinton is lying EVEN MORE
Busting in on naked 15 year olds certainly makes that allegation easier to believe
I don't think I've seen literally anything about that in any form of news media.
Expected defense:
"Oh please, it was just Statutory, who hasn't done that."
the trump campaign has showed no hesitation to just make stuff up to try and win.
It was withdrawn and is being refiled in a different venue. Don't know if it has happened yet.
Foxnews makes it prominent and we drop from a 90% chance of victory to like, 60%.
Haha, no. This election has taught them that they are not alone. The Republicans may get destroyed as a national party but the racist branch has been emboldened. Going to be an ugly decade.
The people who think the emails are anything are already decidedly not voting for Clinton.
Making up more stuff about the emails isn't going to sway anybody.
Rock Band DLC | GW:OttW - arrcd | WLD - Thortar
I honestly think that'd more likely just boost Johnsons numbers higher but not high enough to win or anything.
They tried to bury us. They didn't know that we were seeds. 2018 Midterms. Get your shit together.
All it's doing is taking the facts that Clinton is doing better with minorities and college educated whites than Obama 2012, and Trump is doing better with non-college educated whites than Romney 2012... and then mapping out how much each county would change if 20% of those groups shifted. Trump will naturally do better in Obama areas because there's a bigger pool of Obama voters to draw from, which is why the map largely looks like the 2012 election with colors flipped. The brightest red will be in areas that went heavily Obama despite having a less educated populace, hence good chunks of Iowa. The Bay Area is incredibly well educated, so there's not much of a pool for Trump to draw on in this analysis, where he's only pulling from non-college educated whites (again, regardless of how "alt right" this actually is, since it's just a model of one potential factor). There are so few college educated whites in those counties that the Romney voting minorities and college educated whites outweigh the Obama voting non college educated whites
Yea, my polling place is at an old folks home though Best I'll get is two nice old guys outside commenting they're happy someone under 50 is voting and handing me my democratic party suggested ballot thing.
But I can imagine they have a drumline next to them if I work really hard at it?
That's sort of my point. If that didn't get traction, why would an accusation of him walking in on underage girls?
It doesn't even matter if it's true or not, an allegation of child rape would be the kiss of death for any other campaign just to be associated with that sort of story.
The only reason his sexual assault comments blew up is because there is irrefutable proof that he said those things.