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The French Presidential Election
Kaputa
Registered User regular
Registered User regular
On Sunday, April 23rd, France will have the first round of voting for its next President (France uses a run-off election system). The stakes are high, not only for France, but for the future of the European Union as a whole. The election is a toss up between four candidates, with a fifth trailing, essentially representing center, center-right, center-left, far right, and far left political philosophies. The poll numbers of each are close enough that any outcome is regarded as possible, especially after the Trump and Brexit upsets reminded everyone of the fallibility of predictions based on polls. Hopefully we have some French or at least French-speaking forumers who can offer some insight on the finer points of the race; as an American I don't know much about the candidates beyond the little I've read in US/UK news outlets.
The candidates with a realistic chance at the Presidency are:
Emmanuel Macron
Representing centrist politics. Pro-EU, liberal/capitalist economically (former investment banker), approves of international trade deals and NATO. Generally pro-migration. Overall seems to advocate your usual liberal EU politics.
Francois Fillon
Running as a Republican and representing the center-right, Fillon is an economic liberal advocating capitalist reforms to the French system, though my impression is that he's socially conservative. Overall anti-immigration from what I've read, although less hardline than Le Pen. He's somewhat pro-EU (with a caveat of advocating some nationalist reforms) but his rhetoric is cool toward NATO, though I don't think he's called for France to exit the alliance. Fillon's candidacy has been marred by a scandal where he apparently gave state money to his family for no good reason, but he remains somewhat competitive in the polls.
Benoît Hamon
Representing the Socialist Party and a center-left ideology, Hamon is trailing in the polls. My impression is that this is largely due to Francois Hollande, also of the Socialist Party, being the most disliked French president ever. It's too bad, IMO, because he's more left-wing than Hollande and has decent policy positions in my personal opinion: universal basic income, heavy investment in renewable energy, anti-austerity. He argues that the "myth" of unlimited economic growth should be abandoned as a goal (a controversial position, though one that I personally agree with). He resigned from Hollande's government in 2014 because Hollande was too much of a capitalist. He called for the Green and Communist Party to join forces with him; Jean-Luc Melenchon, representing the Communists, ruled such an alliance out, despite their agreement on many issues.
Marine Le Pen
Representing the National Front and far right politics, Le Pen is a controversial figure. She has tried to distance her party from the more virulent and blatantly fascist politics of her father, though whether that represents a shift in ideology or just better PR is debatable. Stemming the flow of migration, both of the legal and illegal varieties, and particularly Muslim migration, to France is a centerpiece of her platform. Le Pen is opposed to French membership in various international institutions, advocating an exit from the EU (as well as the Euro) and NATO, and expressing opposition to the IMF and World Trade Organization. Overall she strikes the tone of a hard nationalist with ethnic Frenchness being an unstated part of that nationalism.
Jean-Luc Melenchon
An actual Marxist running for President in 2017 and polling at around 20%, Melenchon stunned the French establishment by rapidly rising in the polls, especially after the first debate, where he apparently performed well (not speaking French, I wouldn't know). Melenchon advocates a radical redistributionist economic policy, taxing incomes above 400k Euro at 90% and vastly increasing public spending. Like Hamon, he advocates heavy investment in renewable energy sources. He's somewhat anti-EU, arguing the benefits of internationalism have been corrupted by neoliberal economics, and frequently criticises Germany as exercising a new form of economic imperialism (he points to the austerity programs demanded of Greece and other heavily in debt nations as the primary example of this). He advocates forcing the EU to make a series of unlikely changes to its system in favor of left-wing economics in exchange for France staying in the system. Also critical of France's membership in NATO. Here's a Reuter's run down of his positions. Some have compared Melenchon to Le Pen, but I think this is incorrect and based on defining them by what they are opposed to rather than what they support; both oppose the current international capitalist system but seek to replace it with entirely different alternatives. Melenchon's camp, for its part, regards the National Front as their ideological opposite and worst foe, although some voters who are mainly motivated by opposition to the current system have indeed wavered between the two candidates.
Melenchon, Fillon, and Le Pen all advocate warmer ties with Russia, Hamon and especially Macron do not. Le Pen in particular has been accused of being overly close to the Kremlin, I don't know how true that is.
As far as my uninformed opinion goes, Hamon is my personal favorite, but thanks to Hollande sucking, he's the least popular of the five. A Le Pen or Melenchon victory would be a major blow to the French and European political establishment; I like some of Melenchon's views but am less sold on others, and am unsure what the consequences of his victory would be. Le Pen just terrifies me. Fillon kinda sucks, in my view; austerity and privatization and smashing unions and social conservatism aren't my cup of tea. Macron is pretty much as centrist as you can get in terms of French politics, so whatever. If anyone has any corrections or additions I should make to the OP let me know, I'm going on wiki and a handful of articles I've read in the English language press here. I'll try and read more about the candidates and add to their little blurbs. Nonetheless, I think this is an important election for France, the European Union, and perhaps the world generally, and I think it's worthy of discussion here.
The candidates with a realistic chance at the Presidency are:
Emmanuel Macron
Representing centrist politics. Pro-EU, liberal/capitalist economically (former investment banker), approves of international trade deals and NATO. Generally pro-migration. Overall seems to advocate your usual liberal EU politics.
Francois Fillon
Running as a Republican and representing the center-right, Fillon is an economic liberal advocating capitalist reforms to the French system, though my impression is that he's socially conservative. Overall anti-immigration from what I've read, although less hardline than Le Pen. He's somewhat pro-EU (with a caveat of advocating some nationalist reforms) but his rhetoric is cool toward NATO, though I don't think he's called for France to exit the alliance. Fillon's candidacy has been marred by a scandal where he apparently gave state money to his family for no good reason, but he remains somewhat competitive in the polls.
Benoît Hamon
Representing the Socialist Party and a center-left ideology, Hamon is trailing in the polls. My impression is that this is largely due to Francois Hollande, also of the Socialist Party, being the most disliked French president ever. It's too bad, IMO, because he's more left-wing than Hollande and has decent policy positions in my personal opinion: universal basic income, heavy investment in renewable energy, anti-austerity. He argues that the "myth" of unlimited economic growth should be abandoned as a goal (a controversial position, though one that I personally agree with). He resigned from Hollande's government in 2014 because Hollande was too much of a capitalist. He called for the Green and Communist Party to join forces with him; Jean-Luc Melenchon, representing the Communists, ruled such an alliance out, despite their agreement on many issues.
Marine Le Pen
Representing the National Front and far right politics, Le Pen is a controversial figure. She has tried to distance her party from the more virulent and blatantly fascist politics of her father, though whether that represents a shift in ideology or just better PR is debatable. Stemming the flow of migration, both of the legal and illegal varieties, and particularly Muslim migration, to France is a centerpiece of her platform. Le Pen is opposed to French membership in various international institutions, advocating an exit from the EU (as well as the Euro) and NATO, and expressing opposition to the IMF and World Trade Organization. Overall she strikes the tone of a hard nationalist with ethnic Frenchness being an unstated part of that nationalism.
Jean-Luc Melenchon
An actual Marxist running for President in 2017 and polling at around 20%, Melenchon stunned the French establishment by rapidly rising in the polls, especially after the first debate, where he apparently performed well (not speaking French, I wouldn't know). Melenchon advocates a radical redistributionist economic policy, taxing incomes above 400k Euro at 90% and vastly increasing public spending. Like Hamon, he advocates heavy investment in renewable energy sources. He's somewhat anti-EU, arguing the benefits of internationalism have been corrupted by neoliberal economics, and frequently criticises Germany as exercising a new form of economic imperialism (he points to the austerity programs demanded of Greece and other heavily in debt nations as the primary example of this). He advocates forcing the EU to make a series of unlikely changes to its system in favor of left-wing economics in exchange for France staying in the system. Also critical of France's membership in NATO. Here's a Reuter's run down of his positions. Some have compared Melenchon to Le Pen, but I think this is incorrect and based on defining them by what they are opposed to rather than what they support; both oppose the current international capitalist system but seek to replace it with entirely different alternatives. Melenchon's camp, for its part, regards the National Front as their ideological opposite and worst foe, although some voters who are mainly motivated by opposition to the current system have indeed wavered between the two candidates.
Melenchon, Fillon, and Le Pen all advocate warmer ties with Russia, Hamon and especially Macron do not. Le Pen in particular has been accused of being overly close to the Kremlin, I don't know how true that is.
As far as my uninformed opinion goes, Hamon is my personal favorite, but thanks to Hollande sucking, he's the least popular of the five. A Le Pen or Melenchon victory would be a major blow to the French and European political establishment; I like some of Melenchon's views but am less sold on others, and am unsure what the consequences of his victory would be. Le Pen just terrifies me. Fillon kinda sucks, in my view; austerity and privatization and smashing unions and social conservatism aren't my cup of tea. Macron is pretty much as centrist as you can get in terms of French politics, so whatever. If anyone has any corrections or additions I should make to the OP let me know, I'm going on wiki and a handful of articles I've read in the English language press here. I'll try and read more about the candidates and add to their little blurbs. Nonetheless, I think this is an important election for France, the European Union, and perhaps the world generally, and I think it's worthy of discussion here.
Kaputa on
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Le Pen in particular is very, very likely to make it to the second round and also likely to take a first round plurality, but appears to have a ceiling of about 40% of the second round vote. The most likely other candidate, Macron, appears to have a second round floor of 60%
So, don't panic if Le Pen wins the first round vote, unless she breaks 40%
Donald Trump: Marine Le Pen is 'strongest candidate' in French election
In this case it probably would have prevented Trump. Still have symptoms?
Doesn't Australia have kinda similar laws? Anyways, it might of marginal utility but it strikes me as a pretty good idea. I don't remember ever getting anything of value from last days' campaigning.
If anything, it's too small a window.
And if the last two are Melenchon and Le Pen?
We all start wearing black goatees.
Right. And how often do we end up seeing a blue district in California end up with two Republicans going into the run off because they split 35% of the vote and two dozen Democrats split the other 65%? Two person run off voting really isn't any better than a one round plurality vote. Ranked systems are way better (and still allow for strategic voting, but that can't really be helped).
That would be bad. Melenchon is almost surely better than Le Pen, but I'm afraid the French electorate might not come to the same conclusion.
If it's Le Pen vs anyone else, the not-Le Pen candidate will probably win.
Knock on wood.
We have similar laws in Turkey as well. I don't know the reasoning though.
I do know that you need to take down all your electioneering signs and things within 24 hours of the vote being called.
At least the lay time i checked that's what i was told.
Democrats Abroad! || Vote From Abroad
I actually like the French idea of a short break before it.
With a multi candidate field I can see it being pretty accurate. If it's just two then I think it would slip.
So, in my 100% biased opinion, even Le Pen would be better. And that's a loaded statement.
That said, there are legit reasons to cast a jaundiced eye towards him - not the least his current use of cult-of-personality politics to be within spitting distance of the first round - which I will cross post below:
Like @Kaputa I would likely have put my support behind Benoit Hamon, unfortunately he made the mistake of running with the party that has perhaps irreparably sunk through the joint efforts of Francois Hollande and Manuel Valls. Thus I'm nominally hopeful of a Macron victory instead. Regardless of who wins however we will have to see how June's legislative elections turn out (lol like international English-speaking media will bother covering that exhaustively).
Didn't he also once suggest, with a straight face, that the solution to France's unemployment problem was to shrink the French work week so businesses would have to hire more people to get the same amount of work done?
Fun times ahead.
Seems like the most sane option.
Is that, like...an extreme position? If I'm not mistaken, similar sentiments re: shrinking the work week have been popular when the subject's come up here.
Again, legislative elections in June are going to be the real lynchpin for France going forward. Assuming Melenchon even wins the presidency, he doesn't have a party unlike Le Pen (though as we saw with provincial elections in 2015, FN was strategically outvoted in every second round they made it to), and without a parliamentary majority the presidency can't exert too much influence. So I'll take the person that has people succumbing to red-baiting over the person who comes from a political party, and family, that are anti-Semitic. Meanwhile Macron, though running an independent campaign, is planning to have his org run candidates in the June elections, and even then it is far more likely his presidency would draw support from centre-right and left folks even if En Marche doesn't make big waves in the legislature.
Hollande literally gave corporations massive tax breaks/rebates (good bye revenue!) for the "promise" of these companies hiring more workers, and attempted a farcial legislative-by-decree attempt to gut union activity and worker protections that I think ended up getting scaled back anyway because of organized protests. I'll let you guess if corporations followed through on their "promise." So I don't see how reducing working hours is any more ridiculous.
France does have real issues with it's economy and unemployment rate that may involve having to coddle capitalists, but if it is Macron, with a legislative majority, let's hope it's more like his proposed flexibility on negotiating the 35 hour workweek rather than arbitrarily increasing it a la Fillon, and his labor reform to allow businesses to operate more frequently on Sundays (one of his accomplishments as a cabinet member for Hollande), rather than tax cuts to nowhere.
Some interesting things so far:
- Belgian media claims Macron is in the lead according to polls; Belgian media doesn't have to follow French non-reporting rules
- turnout is expected to be around 80% - go France!
- French expats apparently physically vote at polling places too
Polls close in about an hour and a half
US Turnout in November was 58%. The last UK election was 66.1%, and Brexit was 72%. So 80% is nothing to sneeze at.
Well, to be fair you've got a lot of people, including half your government, working very hard to keep it down.
Okay, but who is second? I hate waiting...
Yuck. Just... yuck.
Please let this rag just be blowing hot air.
Yup. This was like 100% expected.
If she hadn't made it, it would have been shocking.
Yeah, generally. It still would've been nice had that bullet been dodged early.