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[US Foreign Policy] Pithy Comment
moniker
Registered User regular
Registered User regular
A new thread to discuss what amounts to our supposed policies to foreign nations.
Previously on The Earth:
A Group of 6 Nations met and managed to have their nations continue to exist.
A Group of 2 Heads of State met and managed to agree to shake hands and not much else.
Our most recent Secretary of State thinks it is ludicrous to want verification of the existence of a verification methodology.
Also: Tariffs part deux! Because shooting wars aren't the only kind.
What will happen next? Events, dear boy, events.
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Official prevention of cross contamination post.
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The Russian investigation, and related issues: Mueller Russian Investigation Thread
The Cohen investigation and related bribery: Cohen Investigation Thread
General Middle East goings on: The Middle East Thread
Canada specific things and what even is cheese? : Canada Thread
Trump immigration policy, Muslim ban and beyond: Immigration Policy Thread
Firings and Hirings of Senior Government positions: Trump Cabinet Thread
*************
Previously on The Earth:
A Group of 6 Nations met and managed to have their nations continue to exist.
A Group of 2 Heads of State met and managed to agree to shake hands and not much else.
Our most recent Secretary of State thinks it is ludicrous to want verification of the existence of a verification methodology.
Also: Tariffs part deux! Because shooting wars aren't the only kind.
What will happen next? Events, dear boy, events.
*************
Official prevention of cross contamination post.
*************
The Russian investigation, and related issues: Mueller Russian Investigation Thread
The Cohen investigation and related bribery: Cohen Investigation Thread
General Middle East goings on: The Middle East Thread
Canada specific things and what even is cheese? : Canada Thread
Trump immigration policy, Muslim ban and beyond: Immigration Policy Thread
Firings and Hirings of Senior Government positions: Trump Cabinet Thread
*************
moniker on
+1
This discussion has been closed.
Posts
Nobody is saying that. Thing is, there's a lot of comparing the summit with an hypothetical scenario where Trump isn't president. Fact is, Trump IS president, and he will be president for the next 2-6 years, so SK has to work with the facts on the ground. So, in this scenario, the real life one, this result is a great one.
This is such a low bar.
It's like giving Little Donnie credit for calling 911 after he played with matches and burned the house down.
Moon wasn't in the meeting! If this is about ending the Korean conflict, it shouldn't be a bilateral meeting between the US and NK. Which is how you know it wasn't about that. It was about the optics of getting to meet with the American president on Kim's side and it was about the optics of looking like he had an actual accomplishment and getting a bribe from Trump's side. Moon has to spin it positively because what the fuck else can he do.
Like, Donald Trump is not an anti-imperialist. He is not positing withdrawing troops from South Korea out of a desire to end American imperialism, nor to bring about world peace, nor because he thinks it's a gravely unjust war, nor because it's the most humanitarian solution. We're still talking about the guy who wants to invade Iran, wants to take all of Iraq's oil, and wants the world's nations to pay tribute to the United States for protection.
This is not actually a debate between two foreign policies, or foreign policy positions or ideologies. This is a debate between one foreign policy and a deranged Rorschach mask that y'all are projecting your own various ideals upon. Criticism of said foreign policy does not actually bolster the... whatever... is on the other side.
I don't think anyone in the administration has been talking about that. I think the best policy the world (and US) can hope for is that Trump and Kim spends the next X months/years muddling around with some only moderately harmful concessions
Trump is a very important element to peace between the Koreas and the global fallout will be felt when he fucks up. It wasn't too long ago he was escalating into a stance which would have caused war with NK with nukes. He's not a bystander here. America's relationship in that region is not to overlooked, since they are the 800lb Gorilla next to China with these negotiations.
Of course SK should try for peace as much as they can, but just because it's a worthy goal shouldn't mean giving Trump a pass for doing whatever he wants there. SK has to work with Trump and that alliance is crumbling under his stewardship.
Nor does the desperation of the situation mean Trump is actually going to bring peace to the region. A photo op where Kim takes America to the cleaners doesn't guarantee shit. This ignores Trump's history not only with NK, but with foreign entities and nations - which is a train wreck. Kim's, as well. Peace being real relies on the fact both leaders can not only be trusted but will have the competence to get this done like adults.
President Moon is going to prefer as many meetings as possible with whatever parties feel like attending. He's going to want to appease pretty much everybody going forward because South Korea is the biggest loser if everyone feels like they actually prefer the status quo (aside from the North Korean people).
Doc: That's right, twenty five years into the future. I've always dreamed on seeing the future, looking beyond my years, seeing the progress of mankind. I'll also be able to see who wins the next twenty-five world series.
He would probably propose to withdraw troops from South Korea because keeping them there is expensive and anyway we don't need soldiers there anymore because Kim is my best bro now, he told me so.
Rock Band DLC | GW:OttW - arrcd | WLD - Thortar
South Korea has already lost military preparedness to help guard against additional military incursions by North Korea, and North Korea got several other concessions (including a face to face bilateral meeting with the PotUS) that lessen any pressure it faces to open itself, alleviate its humanitarian crisis or take steps towards not having a belligerent rogue state on their border. Why should they agree to verification when they were just given what they want without it for instance.
South Korea doesn't want 'unification'. If that's all they wanted, they'd let North Korea invade. They functionally want regime change so North Korea becomes a liberal democracy or at least on the path towards liberal democracy (which really only arrived in SK 30 years ago) and they can reunite families and sell cell phones to them. Trying to deal with the North Koreans - brainwashed, low skill and ranging from having few economic resources to starving - is going to be a major problem post-dictatorship.
The status quo is South Korea has a standard of living that matches the highest in the world. An imperfect status quo doesn't mean change is inherently good. By painting SK as a loser in a status quo, you implicitly assume the new situation would be better for them. If the change is dominated by the United States as currently led (poorly, haphazard, without the necessary details, and loudly self-centered) and China (pragmatic and with no need to pretend they have Korean interests at heart) it could very easily be a worse outcome. For instance, a North Korea with sanctions lifted and no real effort to verify nuclear disarmament plus a withdrawn US military could easily be a much bigger threat to SK than the status quo
QEDMF xbl: PantsB G+
Rationally, you'd expect that, but a lot of them - in fact, the majority of them - like where this is going in comparison to no talks happening at all. President Moon's meeting with Mr. Kim skyrocketed popularity for both of them. The summit between Mr. Trump and Mr. Kim was also met with popular approval. The idea that we're giving credence to a dictator who is the world leader in human rights violations is a sentiment held by many South Koreans, but it's not the zeitgeist. They want resolution, and I think they've given up the idea of some Libya model.
Doc: That's right, twenty five years into the future. I've always dreamed on seeing the future, looking beyond my years, seeing the progress of mankind. I'll also be able to see who wins the next twenty-five world series.
WoW
Dear Satan.....
It's unknown if the destruction of tunnel access was actually complete and thorough or just theater, or if they don't have other facilities they can use that haven't been affected.
Rock Band DLC | GW:OttW - arrcd | WLD - Thortar
What he could've done is absolutely nothing when it looked like the meeting was off and Trump was sending his dumb ass letter to Kim. But he did more than nothing, he immediately started working to salvage the situation and make this very summit that's happening now between Trump and Kim possible.
That American liberals want to oppose the meeting is one thing. That they want to paint Moon as some guy who's just along for a the ride and secretly agrees with them, in the face of months of actions and words that paint a pretty clear picture about what he wants, is pretty unconvincing.
That meeting was happening with or without Moon's concerns, neither Kim or Trump seem to value SK as an equal in this negotiation - which is why he wasn't invited to the Singapore meeting.
While your profile on Moon has merit we're in a Schrödinger's cat situation regarding what Moon actually thinks regarding this quagmire. There was never a possibility he was ever going to have any other reaction than what he's doing right now, which would anger both Kim and Trump by attacking or not agreeing what they're doing. It's the most logical and practical reaction to helping his country in these dire times.
Can you cite the actions prior to this that your justifying your claim as evidence that Moon is doing what you're arguing he's doing?
edit: Trump ending the war games being a surprise to SK before taking the meeting does not sound like a development Moon would be happy with.
https://www.msnbc.com/brian-williams/watch/win-for-kim-trump-agrees-to-suspend-u-s-south-korea-war-games-1254488131797
Literally nothing so far sends the message "don't have nukes".
The message is clearly and explicitly: build nukes as fast as you can
Basically. I believe Tom Cotton was asked about why it's okay for Trump to sit down with Kim and he said "they wouldn't be worth our time except that they have nukes." The message for anyone who's listening should be clear.
President Moon's platform is all about reunification of North Korea. In addition, you're talking about the guy who made the "Three No's" with China. South Korea isn't as buddy-buddy with the US as it could be. Look up his positions and his approval ratings. Read up on President Moon and South Korean liberals. I believe some of his views might surprise you.
Doc: That's right, twenty five years into the future. I've always dreamed on seeing the future, looking beyond my years, seeing the progress of mankind. I'll also be able to see who wins the next twenty-five world series.
Like, this idea that SK is A-OK with the status quo despite of the words that are actually coming from their mouths and the polls and their actions so far and the election results is...bizarre. Fact is, there were advances on the resolution of the conflict, then Bush Jr. killed them and Obama did jack shit about it, so maybe they are glad that there's progress again. Specially because the alternative right now is being a few Rocketman tweets from getting a missile barrage on Seoul.
All we can do is speculate. Moon wasn't invited to the meeting - he should have been. Trump and Kim aren't the most reliable people, so being sceptic if this whole thing really is good for SK is not as bizarre as it might seem.
If for some reason that utopia comes through - fine. But the North Korean regime doesn't have a history of following through on their promises and Trump sure as hell won't do anything once that "deal" falls through. All he wanted was the photo op.
Obama said he’d be willing to meet with Kim.
He finalized the Iran deal.
He gave us a start on a new relationship with Cuba.
He even tried to give Putin a chance to better our relationship with Russia in the beginning.
He famously tried to and was willing to work with our countries adversaries in good faith on multiple occasions.
North Korea had no interest in good faith negotiations at that point because they didn’t have the leverage of a finished program. Obama couldn’t force them into compliance.
To say he did jack shit or didn’t care reeks of plain willful ignorance.
You are confusing two separate things. IT's clear Moon wants the meeting, which makes sense. Ebum's assertion was that you can't know if he's happy with the outcome because he'd be saying the same thing regardless because he desperately wants something to come of this.
Public-facing statements are going to be blandly positive for a while.
especially since Trump just made their situation WORSE in exchange for fuckall
Things could have certainly gone worse, but that doesn't transform what happened into a success. It just means thank god the past is what already happened so they can't screw it up even more. There has been no material change or commitment to change that makes peace more likely compared to the last week, the last year, the last administration.
no matter how dumb what you do is
What does "ending the war" actually mean in tangible actions that North Korea will take? Does it mean a demobilization of forces along the DMZ? By how much? Opening of borders for trade or immigration?
Giving things away for free to North Korea like this is essentially negative overall progress. The US is going to reduce its mobilization level for the defense of South Korea in some small way and ... is peace now declared? - of course not.
Actually making peace would involve a significant military stand-down by both sides, and it's the thing Trump failed to negotiate for in anyway - he didn't even ask (50/50 because he actively has no idea about North Korea's artillery threatening Seoul). It's the thing which has always stalled out peace talks in Korea because everyone who actually knows what the hell they're doing tries to get NK to actually give any sign of good faith that they're serious and surprise surprise they don't.
I'm not sure why you think this contradicts the statements being made.
Like, even just taking your face value assessment that it means "the SK populace wants a peace initiative with NK", that still doesn't actually address the point anyone is making. Hell, even if you just say "the SK government wants a peace initiative with NK" it still doesn't.
The first section is hilariously bullshit.
Lemme highlight the problem here:
You can't quote the thing people are complaining about that is lacking in specifics or commitment as a counter to those very complaints. People aren't ignoring the "moratorium", the complaints are about that "moratorium".
The complaints about the summit are:
1.It was dumb to give up a meeting with the President at the beginning of negotiations for nothing. That was a big thing we could have held over North Korea.
2.It was dumb to give up military exercises with South Korea for nothing. South Korea didn't get anything in exchange for this concession.
3.It was rude to just give up those exercises without telling Moon we were going to do it before hand, and letting it just be a surprise.
4.It was dumb to sign a document that ensures nothing. No conditions. No timeline. No inspections. Nothing.
No one thinks talks with North Korea are bad. No one thinks Moon doesn't want talks with North Korea. No one thinks Moon changed his mind about talks with North Korea because of the exercise concession. No one thinks we shouldn't be doing this, people are just upset at how badly we're doing it.
Regarding the DPK winning elections, all that shows is that Moon's goal in unifying Korea has been victorious - something no-one in this thread is arguing against. The key disagreement is whether Trump and Kim's current meeting is what they agreed with, 1) yet no-one disputes the fact Moon would openly negatively react to what occurred as something which he would do (this context gets completely dismissed) and 2) that report does not directly link the meeting with those elections. There is almost no crossover between SK wanting unification and what Kim/Trump are doing, the two issues are seperate.
With van Buren, NK releasing those prisoners would be important. However, it is only a gesture of good will and a very small token for NK to give over. They are not a game changer that the meeting guarantees peace. Nor does anyone know what was signed and what we do know has been vague at best. Nor is NK going to allow America to send in inspectors to said site to confirm that things are what they say. IIRC the site imploded, it wasn't shut down voluntarily. A big problem is that the world does not have access to NK to verify things like that so we have to take Kim's word - and he's notoriously unreliable.
To your last bolded statement, yes, that is correct. Which is exactly why we're not taking either Trump or Kim's word because neither has earned it. Those paragraphs ignore what America gave NK regarding legitimacy on the world stage, something they've been craving for decades, and how Trump took down the military drills between SK/USA - for nothing. What ultimately did America and SK get for this meeting that was worth these concessions? Why wasn't Moon there? What prevents Trump and Kim getting into another heated exchange on twitter which would light up tensions again? The Iran deal had carrots and sticks firmly in place which had definite consequences for Iran, and this was done over years by many professionals and produced results. What result has this given the world? How is "peace" defined by the new status quo between SK, NK and America?
Why would you trust Kim or Trump at this stage given their histories?
The result is that they affirmed pretty much everything from the Moon-Kim summit. And made a concession/good will gesture about war games that's as permanent as words. But liberals are unhappy, so obviously Moon is also unhappy because... well of course he is.
Also, there's a huge goalpost shift where:
That happened before this meeting aren't real concessions. Also, expecting a detailed agreement after less of a week of a summit where it was agreed the start of the development of said agreement is insane.
EDIT: Like, fucking duh is hard to get anything to stick after Iran. But Moon and SK are doing everything they can to try, so dismissing the possibility out of hand is disrespectful to them.
Giving up something you're done with, are not going to use and no longer need. Is not a concession.