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[Natural Disasters] Dixie alley tornado season in full swing.

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Posts

  • XaquinXaquin Right behind you!Registered User regular
    Doodmann wrote: »
    Can he even do that?

    probably not, but jesus

    LovelyFencingsax
  • ThawmusThawmus Registered User regular
    Enc wrote: »


    So this garbage thing happened.
    Maybe California should block taxes from being paid to the federal government if the Trump administration is going to withhold lifesaving federal services.

    I know I should just not be surprised that he doesn't know how to spell "Forest", but I also am wondering if it's a typo at all.

  • EncEnc A Fool with Compassion The Land of Flowers (and Dragons)Registered User regular
    edited January 9
    Also looks like he may have deleted the tweet?

    Edit, yep. And corrected the spelling in a resubmission.

    Enc on
    SleepshrykeThawmusFencingsax
  • LovelyLovely Registered User regular
    edited January 9
    He deleted the tweet.
    Because it was too insane and evil even for him and he had a brief moment of clarity for the first time in his life?????

    Nah, just to correct his spelling.




    (note- ugh. feels gross linking to him. )

    Lovely on
    sig.gif
  • SleepSleep Registered User regular
    Internet doesn't forget.

    That motherfucker just tried to blame california for letting it rain.

    DoodmannGnome-Interruptusdispatch.oElvenshaeSolarKarozJazzN1tSt4lkerJaysonFourSkeithFencingsaxkimeLoisLaneDuke 2.0Gennenalyse RuebenZonugalElldren
  • Phoenix-DPhoenix-D Registered User regular
    Also some facts:
    https://www.nps.gov/articles/wildland-fire-in-chaparral.htm
    Chaparral is a general term that applies to various types of brushland found in southern California and the southwestern United States. Plants such as manzanita, ceanothus, chamise and scrub oak, along with other grasses and forbs, are examples of typical chaparral flora. This community contains the most flammable type of vegetation found in the United States. It is no surprise, then, that many of these species are well-adapted to fire and some actually possess traits that encourage fire.

    https://nature.berkeley.edu/news/2018/02/study-reveals-chaparral-management-can-devastate-california-s-wild-bird
    On the tail of California's most destructive and expensive year of firefighting ever, it might seem obvious that vegetation removal would reduce the risk of such a year happening again. But Professor Scott Stephens and scientists at the University of Arizona are showing that in chaparral, California's iconic shrubland ecosystem, management can devastate wild bird populations and that fire-risk reduction is only temporary.

  • HenroidHenroid Radio Demon Internet HellRegistered User regular
    "California doesn't vote for me so it should burn." Fuck off.

    Centrism is just the cowardly way to be a bigot w/o being explicit about it.
    American politics isn't 4D chess, it's just if you give a shit about other people or not.
    EncXaquinJazzThawmusSleepKarozElvenshaeDoodmannJaysonFourMartini_Philosopherdispatch.oLovelyShadowfireMvrckFencingsaxkimeLoisLaneDuke 2.0never dieDark Raven XGennenalyse RuebenZonugalElldren
  • PhillisherePhillishere Registered User regular
    edited January 9
    Phoenix-D wrote: »
    Also some facts:
    https://www.nps.gov/articles/wildland-fire-in-chaparral.htm
    Chaparral is a general term that applies to various types of brushland found in southern California and the southwestern United States. Plants such as manzanita, ceanothus, chamise and scrub oak, along with other grasses and forbs, are examples of typical chaparral flora. This community contains the most flammable type of vegetation found in the United States. It is no surprise, then, that many of these species are well-adapted to fire and some actually possess traits that encourage fire.

    https://nature.berkeley.edu/news/2018/02/study-reveals-chaparral-management-can-devastate-california-s-wild-bird
    On the tail of California's most destructive and expensive year of firefighting ever, it might seem obvious that vegetation removal would reduce the risk of such a year happening again. But Professor Scott Stephens and scientists at the University of Arizona are showing that in chaparral, California's iconic shrubland ecosystem, management can devastate wild bird populations and that fire-risk reduction is only temporary.

    This is why active burning is the best policy long-term. These are fire-adapted ecosystems which means that catching on fire is part of their natural lifecycles. To do that, though, requires extensive funding, state-federal cooperation, and a willingness to ignore NIMBY types who never want to smell smoke in their multi-million dollar McMansions.

    Phillishere on
    Gnome-InterruptusSleepKarozN1tSt4lkerElvenshaeJaysonFourdispatch.oSmrtnikLovelyShadowfireFencingsaxDuke 2.0IncenjucarGennenalyse RuebenElldren
  • kaidkaid Registered User regular
    Phoenix-D wrote: »
    Also some facts:
    https://www.nps.gov/articles/wildland-fire-in-chaparral.htm
    Chaparral is a general term that applies to various types of brushland found in southern California and the southwestern United States. Plants such as manzanita, ceanothus, chamise and scrub oak, along with other grasses and forbs, are examples of typical chaparral flora. This community contains the most flammable type of vegetation found in the United States. It is no surprise, then, that many of these species are well-adapted to fire and some actually possess traits that encourage fire.

    https://nature.berkeley.edu/news/2018/02/study-reveals-chaparral-management-can-devastate-california-s-wild-bird
    On the tail of California's most destructive and expensive year of firefighting ever, it might seem obvious that vegetation removal would reduce the risk of such a year happening again. But Professor Scott Stephens and scientists at the University of Arizona are showing that in chaparral, California's iconic shrubland ecosystem, management can devastate wild bird populations and that fire-risk reduction is only temporary.

    This is why active burning is the best policy long-term. These are fire-adapted ecosystems which means that catching on fire is part of their natural lifecycles. To do that, though, requires extensive funding, state-federal cooperation, and a willingness to ignore NIMBY types who never want to smell smoke in their multi-million dollar McMansions.

    Also maybe some more care needs to be made in human habitations penetrating into areas of hills/valleys that are simply not possible to fully fire control. Over by my friends old place near san diego there were some really pretty mansions perched on top of these really rough hills and there was only one road to get in and out of them and the terrain was way to steep to ever manage the brush. If that area ever gets a fire those people are probably going to die because there would not be anyway to get to them and no way to reduce the fire danger.

    BullheadFencingsax
  • PhillisherePhillishere Registered User regular
    kaid wrote: »
    Phoenix-D wrote: »
    Also some facts:
    https://www.nps.gov/articles/wildland-fire-in-chaparral.htm
    Chaparral is a general term that applies to various types of brushland found in southern California and the southwestern United States. Plants such as manzanita, ceanothus, chamise and scrub oak, along with other grasses and forbs, are examples of typical chaparral flora. This community contains the most flammable type of vegetation found in the United States. It is no surprise, then, that many of these species are well-adapted to fire and some actually possess traits that encourage fire.

    https://nature.berkeley.edu/news/2018/02/study-reveals-chaparral-management-can-devastate-california-s-wild-bird
    On the tail of California's most destructive and expensive year of firefighting ever, it might seem obvious that vegetation removal would reduce the risk of such a year happening again. But Professor Scott Stephens and scientists at the University of Arizona are showing that in chaparral, California's iconic shrubland ecosystem, management can devastate wild bird populations and that fire-risk reduction is only temporary.

    This is why active burning is the best policy long-term. These are fire-adapted ecosystems which means that catching on fire is part of their natural lifecycles. To do that, though, requires extensive funding, state-federal cooperation, and a willingness to ignore NIMBY types who never want to smell smoke in their multi-million dollar McMansions.

    Also maybe some more care needs to be made in human habitations penetrating into areas of hills/valleys that are simply not possible to fully fire control. Over by my friends old place near san diego there were some really pretty mansions perched on top of these really rough hills and there was only one road to get in and out of them and the terrain was way to steep to ever manage the brush. If that area ever gets a fire those people are probably going to die because there would not be anyway to get to them and no way to reduce the fire danger.

    That's a national problem, really. From coastal mansions on the East Coast to flood-plain subdivisions near rivers in the Midwest, we've basically allowed local governments to do whatever they want when it comes to allowing development, including frequently violating state and federal law to please developers. Climate change is going to turn this into a national crisis.

    KarozOrcaBigJoeMdispatch.oGnome-InterruptusLovelyFencingsaxLoisLanejimb213
  • Santa ClaustrophobiaSanta Claustrophobia Ho Ho Ho Disconnecting from Xbox LIVERegistered User regular
    Henroid wrote: »
    "California doesn't vote for me so it should burn." Fuck off.

    This was exactly where all this was going to go.

    ThawmusN1tSt4lkerElvenshaeLovelyjungleroomxSorceFencingsax
  • JedocJedoc I fought THE POD and THE POD wonRegistered User regular
    Yeah, I know Harvey was a real wakeup call for cities near the coast in terms of flood control. There's a very strong argument that if a hurricane of that magnitude had hit twenty years earlier it would have been a much less severe event, due to the natural flood control lost when all the bayous were paved over.

    That's why everyone should just move to Oklahoma, where all the ground is the same and the uncaring sky will destroy or spare your home based on its own inscrutable whims.

    GDdCWMm.jpg
    XaquinThawmusN1tSt4lkerElvenshaeEncfurlionGnome-InterruptusLovelySorceFencingsaxkimenever die
  • PhillisherePhillishere Registered User regular
    Jedoc wrote: »
    Yeah, I know Harvey was a real wakeup call for cities near the coast in terms of flood control. There's a very strong argument that if a hurricane of that magnitude had hit twenty years earlier it would have been a much less severe event, due to the natural flood control lost when all the bayous were paved over.

    That's why everyone should just move to Oklahoma, where all the ground is the same and the uncaring sky will destroy or spare your home based on its own inscrutable whims.

    Oklahoma relies on the Ogallala Aquifer. It's already strained to the point of possible collapse, so more people heading to OK would be really bad news.

    destroyah87
  • Santa ClaustrophobiaSanta Claustrophobia Ho Ho Ho Disconnecting from Xbox LIVERegistered User regular
    On a positive side, the House is going to open an investigation into the response to Hurricane Maria.

    XaquinNitsuaThawmusN1tSt4lkerJazzJragghenMorganVElvenshaeKarozBullheadPolaritieshrykeEncJaysonFourSkeithTNTrooperMartini_PhilosopherTynnanlonelyahavaBloodsheedfurlionGnome-InterruptusLovelyMillShadowfireSorceMvrckGnizmoFencingsaxRedTidekimeTomantaUndead ScottsmanDuke 2.0Incenjucarnever dieGennenalyse RuebenZonugalFoolOnTheHillElldrenjimb213Desktop Hippie
  • MorganVMorganV Registered User regular
    On a positive side, the House is going to open an investigation into the response to Hurricane Maria.

    I hope the focus is on the federal response to Puerto Rico, and if (duh!) it differed from the responses to Harvey and Florence.

    BullheadSleepMartini_PhilosopherGnome-InterruptusZibblsnrtJazzLovelyFencingsaxGennenalyse RuebenZonugal
  • EncEnc A Fool with Compassion The Land of Flowers (and Dragons)Registered User regular
    I know we sorta cross lines here about natural disasters, and it isn't a race to the bottom zero sum game.

    But as a hurricane survivor a dozen times over, including direct hits from Charley, Irma, and a bunch of 3s and 4s... they are in no way equivalent in damage or terror as the fires in California. Hurricanes are dangerous and destroy property, but their death counts directly are usually small and/or due to lack of logistical support after. Fires kill people in fear and terror directly, offering no way to shelter or escape.

    Fuck fires.

    N1tSt4lkerSleepThawmusDisco11Zonugal
  • PhillisherePhillishere Registered User regular
    edited January 9
    Enc wrote: »
    I know we sorta cross lines here about natural disasters, and it isn't a race to the bottom zero sum game.

    But as a hurricane survivor a dozen times over, including direct hits from Charley, Irma, and a bunch of 3s and 4s... they are in no way equivalent in damage or terror as the fires in California. Hurricanes are dangerous and destroy property, but their death counts directly are usually small and/or due to lack of logistical support after. Fires kill people in fear and terror directly, offering no way to shelter or escape.

    Fuck fires.

    87 people died in the California fires. 1,836 died in Hurricane Katrina.

    Hurricane death counts are the result of the federal and state governments working in tandem to warn residents, improve building codes, and provide disaster assistance after the storms. Before modern weather tracking, especially, major hurricanes frequently ended with Katrina-level casualties. Fires are much more localized, and the death counts often result from a lack of similar infrastructure and advance warning systems in areas hit by them.

    Phillishere on
    Elldren
  • MorganVMorganV Registered User regular
    Enc wrote: »
    I know we sorta cross lines here about natural disasters, and it isn't a race to the bottom zero sum game.

    But as a hurricane survivor a dozen times over, including direct hits from Charley, Irma, and a bunch of 3s and 4s... they are in no way equivalent in damage or terror as the fires in California. Hurricanes are dangerous and destroy property, but their death counts directly are usually small and/or due to lack of logistical support after. Fires kill people in fear and terror directly, offering no way to shelter or escape.

    Fuck fires.

    Couldn't agree more. The thought terrifies me. I've been shot, stabbed*, slashed, strangled, beaten*, crushed, bitten* (both poisonous and not), fallen from a large height*, and nearly drowned (to the point of needing resuscitation)*.

    But burns*, even the smaller ones, are ALWAYS the fucking worst.

    * Each on multiple occasions. I look at that list, and I really need to reevaluate my life choices.

    DoodmannSleepEncElvenshaeForarThawmusGnome-InterruptusMvrckHappylilElf
  • AimAim Registered User regular
    MorganV wrote: »
    Enc wrote: »
    I know we sorta cross lines here about natural disasters, and it isn't a race to the bottom zero sum game.

    But as a hurricane survivor a dozen times over, including direct hits from Charley, Irma, and a bunch of 3s and 4s... they are in no way equivalent in damage or terror as the fires in California. Hurricanes are dangerous and destroy property, but their death counts directly are usually small and/or due to lack of logistical support after. Fires kill people in fear and terror directly, offering no way to shelter or escape.

    Fuck fires.

    Couldn't agree more. The thought terrifies me. I've been shot, stabbed*, slashed, strangled, beaten*, crushed, bitten* (both poisonous and not), fallen from a large height*, and nearly drowned (to the point of needing resuscitation)*.

    But burns*, even the smaller ones, are ALWAYS the fucking worst.

    * Each on multiple occasions. I look at that list, and I really need to reevaluate my life choices.

    Dude, please take care.

    XaquinSleepOrcaJragghenEncElvenshaePolaritieTynnanlonelyahavaForar38thDoeThawmusGnome-InterruptusHonkJazzSmrtnikDoctor DetroitdavidsdurionsShadowfireSkeithSorceFryFencingsaxRedTidekimeDuke 2.0SolarDark Raven XGennenalyse RuebenZonugalElldrenjimb213
  • EncEnc A Fool with Compassion The Land of Flowers (and Dragons)Registered User regular
    I'm not saying hurricanes aren't deadly, or even more deadly on average (they are). But the failure state is in logistics after in most cases. Katrina was an exception to the rule (which is usually death by pre-existing health condition, followed by disease followed by heat stroke (such as with what happened in Puerto Rico), in that several nursing homes flooded and skewed the usual death rates due to the unique nature of New Orleans and the topography of St. Bernard Parish.

    Most hurricanes don't cause the deaths, its the failure of responders after. You can escape a hurricane in most cases, and have time to run (regardless of if you choose to do so). You nearly always have days or more of prediction.

    With fires, one second you are fine and totally unaware that all the escape vectors have already been choked off until it gets close enough to kill you, and then there is no escape.

    Mrs. Enc and I lost people in Charley, but they had every opportunity to leave the places that flooded and were wiped out by tornados and tidal surge. I still hate them for choosing to stay, because their deaths were avoidable and they knew better. They choose to ignore the warnings.

    Most of the folks lost in this last year's fires never stood a chance, as the fire may have been contained or not. There was no way of really knowing for a lot of them until it was too late.

    SleepGnome-InterruptusSmrtnikFencingsax
  • MorganVMorganV Registered User regular
    Aim wrote: »
    MorganV wrote: »
    Enc wrote: »
    I know we sorta cross lines here about natural disasters, and it isn't a race to the bottom zero sum game.

    But as a hurricane survivor a dozen times over, including direct hits from Charley, Irma, and a bunch of 3s and 4s... they are in no way equivalent in damage or terror as the fires in California. Hurricanes are dangerous and destroy property, but their death counts directly are usually small and/or due to lack of logistical support after. Fires kill people in fear and terror directly, offering no way to shelter or escape.

    Fuck fires.

    Couldn't agree more. The thought terrifies me. I've been shot, stabbed*, slashed, strangled, beaten*, crushed, bitten* (both poisonous and not), fallen from a large height*, and nearly drowned (to the point of needing resuscitation)*.

    But burns*, even the smaller ones, are ALWAYS the fucking worst.

    * Each on multiple occasions. I look at that list, and I really need to reevaluate my life choices.

    Dude, please take care.

    Ehh. Most of that was from a mispent adolescence. Haven't had a proper injury in a good decade or so (blown knee in 2006).

    So... I guess you could say I'm due? :)

  • QanamilQanamil Registered User regular
    Enc wrote: »
    I know we sorta cross lines here about natural disasters, and it isn't a race to the bottom zero sum game.

    But as a hurricane survivor a dozen times over, including direct hits from Charley, Irma, and a bunch of 3s and 4s... they are in no way equivalent in damage or terror as the fires in California. Hurricanes are dangerous and destroy property, but their death counts directly are usually small and/or due to lack of logistical support after. Fires kill people in fear and terror directly, offering no way to shelter or escape.

    Fuck fires.

    I've been through dozens and dozens of hurricanes too. Many when I lived in Puerto Rico. Most of the people in Puerto Rico didn't have a chance to escape, knock-on effect of the hurricane or not, and I see little to zero value in comparing two massive disasters in this way.

    Steam/PSN ID: FauxRomano | no podcast projects, but interested!
  • kaidkaid Registered User regular
    Enc wrote: »
    I know we sorta cross lines here about natural disasters, and it isn't a race to the bottom zero sum game.

    But as a hurricane survivor a dozen times over, including direct hits from Charley, Irma, and a bunch of 3s and 4s... they are in no way equivalent in damage or terror as the fires in California. Hurricanes are dangerous and destroy property, but their death counts directly are usually small and/or due to lack of logistical support after. Fires kill people in fear and terror directly, offering no way to shelter or escape.

    Fuck fires.

    87 people died in the California fires. 1,836 died in Hurricane Katrina.

    Hurricane death counts are the result of the federal and state governments working in tandem to warn residents, improve building codes, and provide disaster assistance after the storms. Before modern weather tracking, especially, major hurricanes frequently ended with Katrina-level casualties. Fires are much more localized, and the death counts often result from a lack of similar infrastructure and advance warning systems in areas hit by them.

    Fires are bad flooding/mudslides are even worse killers. You can see fires coming but floods and mudslides by the time you realize you are in trouble it is too late to get out. In NO when the levees started to fail the water came up really fast. It basically was mostly fine until it wasn't and then it was too late. Like the mudslides last year in cali those things move hella fast and while you can tell when there is a chance they will happen you have no idea where or when or what path they will take and once they start it's to late to evac.

  • JragghenJragghen Registered User regular
    I'm close enough that local news does exposes on it and stuff.

    It was also some planning/infrastructure problems.

    Like, Paradise itself had a specific plan in place for evacuation - there were zones in the city, and it was drilled in ONLY zones which were told were supposed to evacuate to prevent clogging of roads, etc. People sitting still were actually doing EXPLICITLY what they were supposed to. The problem is that when the decision was made to evacuate other zones, it wasn't properly communicated.

    There was actually an interview of an adult woman whose mother is one of the deaths who they had been arguing over leaving for over an hour after their area was called to evacuate where her mother was refusing because it wasn't what they were "supposed" to do because they hadn't gotten something pushed to them letting them know their area was supposed to evacuate, and the woman eventually left herself and couldn't...you know, carry her mother against her will. It was heartbreaking.

  • ZibblsnrtZibblsnrt Registered User regular
    Henroid wrote: »
    "California doesn't vote for me so it should burn." Fuck off.

    Aren't most of the fires in particularly Republican parts of California?

  • Santa ClaustrophobiaSanta Claustrophobia Ho Ho Ho Disconnecting from Xbox LIVERegistered User regular
    Zibblsnrt wrote: »
    Henroid wrote: »
    "California doesn't vote for me so it should burn." Fuck off.

    Aren't most of the fires in particularly Republican parts of California?

    The only time that distinction matters is during elections and how unfair it is that SF/LA has so many people that vote the other way.

    Otherwise, California isn't 'real' America.

  • HenroidHenroid Radio Demon Internet HellRegistered User regular
    Zibblsnrt wrote: »
    Henroid wrote: »
    "California doesn't vote for me so it should burn." Fuck off.

    Aren't most of the fires in particularly Republican parts of California?
    First, Trump isn't going to make that distinction; to him the state is just blue.

    Second, no, the fires can happen all over the state. Certainly not in the heavily concrete jungle parts like downtown LA but much of the suburbs are in danger.

    Centrism is just the cowardly way to be a bigot w/o being explicit about it.
    American politics isn't 4D chess, it's just if you give a shit about other people or not.
    Lovely
  • MorganVMorganV Registered User regular
    Henroid wrote: »
    Zibblsnrt wrote: »
    Henroid wrote: »
    "California doesn't vote for me so it should burn." Fuck off.

    Aren't most of the fires in particularly Republican parts of California?
    First, Trump isn't going to make that distinction; to him the state is just blue.

    Second, no, the fires can happen all over the state. Certainly not in the heavily concrete jungle parts like downtown LA but much of the suburbs are in danger.

    Re: the First, you know Trump thinks that, I know Trump thinks that. I wonder if the conservatives who live in the area know that. It's hard to break a partisan foothold, but being told "You're not one of us" by the person you support, goes a long way to weakening those bonds. Not enough by itself, but it's a factor.

    And I'll point out that the California 1st, which was where most of the Camp Fire was, and the California 4th (which runs along it's south east border, are two of the seven seats that Republicans hold (with a third, the California 8th being adjacent to the CA-4). And Trump has decided he's going to take a steaming dump on those communities out of a combination of ignorance of politics, and spite for Pelosi.

  • DiplominatorDiplominator Hardcore Porg Registered User regular
    The Carr Fire was also on the other end of the 1st, I think.

    Rep. LaMalfa put out something to the effect of "sure environmentalism is bad but can we not with the FEMA funding...?" I'm sure he'll get right on pursuing legislative solutions.

    MorganVFencingsax
  • JragghenJragghen Registered User regular
    edited January 10
    Current drought status for CA:

    0f5acabea0c9a24bcba08358b73ac77ecd7df69a163bacfe2661762a46b6b9c3.png?w=600&h=567

    No key, but severity should be self-evident. This is actually a positive shift from previous, where D3 has been eliminated from some counties.

    Why bring this up now? Because (fingers crossed) we should be seeing something pretty major next week.

    It's still early (and forecasting/models get less accurate the longer out we're looking, so a week out is still take with a LOT of salt), but specifically:

    fdddd502ff0f02aeadb87c785cfb4dce8553ac6deab3f498c34ad89538a2a832.png?w=600&h=405

    There's a thing called an "atmospheric river" - think of it like a river in the sky, moving water from one area to another. Now look at that thing: extending all the way from California to the Philippines and beyond.

    And more than that:

    9cb78562b957d154583f74e78c053eb1f62acd53571b48006d35aca6be925865.png?w=600&h=405

    Temperature anomaly at the same timeframe.


    Anyway, I'm hardly a meteorologist, or even a hobbyist really - but the folks who I read who ARE seem to be pretty excited about this one, and it might actually start to crack that nut.

    e: Going to ignore commenting on the temp anomaly over the mainland :/

    Jragghen on
    DoodmannMartini_Philosopher
  • MadicanMadican No face Registered User regular
    Yup, and that's why I need to get my windshield wipers replaced after the sun rotted my current ones here in the Mojave. Because when it rains here? It's gonna pour.

    Also I like to be able to see when driving a two ton mass of metal around people who have apparently never seen rain before.

    camo_sig2.png
    PSN: AuthorFrost
    mageofstorm.png
    Fencingsax
  • DoodmannDoodmann Registered User regular
    Jragghen wrote: »
    Current drought status for CA:

    0f5acabea0c9a24bcba08358b73ac77ecd7df69a163bacfe2661762a46b6b9c3.png?w=600&h=567

    No key, but severity should be self-evident. This is actually a positive shift from previous, where D3 has been eliminated from some counties.

    Why bring this up now? Because (fingers crossed) we should be seeing something pretty major next week.

    It's still early (and forecasting/models get less accurate the longer out we're looking, so a week out is still take with a LOT of salt), but specifically:

    fdddd502ff0f02aeadb87c785cfb4dce8553ac6deab3f498c34ad89538a2a832.png?w=600&h=405

    There's a thing called an "atmospheric river" - think of it like a river in the sky, moving water from one area to another. Now look at that thing: extending all the way from California to the Philippines and beyond.

    And more than that:

    9cb78562b957d154583f74e78c053eb1f62acd53571b48006d35aca6be925865.png?w=600&h=405

    Temperature anomaly at the same timeframe.


    Anyway, I'm hardly a meteorologist, or even a hobbyist really - but the folks who I read who ARE seem to be pretty excited about this one, and it might actually start to crack that nut.

    e: Going to ignore commenting on the temp anomaly over the mainland :/

    How is this different than El Nino?

    So you are saying I should have bought a ski pass this year?

  • SteevLSteevL What can I do for you? Registered User regular
    Ah, I guess that explains why the forecast is all rain next week. I've got to take my wife to and from LAX during that time. This sucks.

  • FencingsaxFencingsax It is difficult to get a man to understand, when his salary depends upon his not understanding GNU Terry PratchettRegistered User regular
    Madican wrote: »
    Yup, and that's why I need to get my windshield wipers replaced after the sun rotted my current ones here in the Mojave. Because when it rains here? It's gonna pour.

    Also I like to be able to see when driving a two ton mass of metal around people who have apparently never seen rain before.

    It has been raining for the last week in the bay area, and driving is terrible, because as soon as that first drop hits, people forget which pedal does the steering.

    torchlight-sig-80.jpg
    Orca
  • Santa ClaustrophobiaSanta Claustrophobia Ho Ho Ho Disconnecting from Xbox LIVERegistered User regular
    Considering asshats all over the place drive like shit when it rains, it must be less about geography and more that they don't understand what wet roads mean and under what conditions require more care.

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  • VishNubVishNub Registered User regular
    Doodmann wrote: »
    Jragghen wrote: »
    Current drought status for CA:

    0f5acabea0c9a24bcba08358b73ac77ecd7df69a163bacfe2661762a46b6b9c3.png?w=600&h=567

    No key, but severity should be self-evident. This is actually a positive shift from previous, where D3 has been eliminated from some counties.

    Why bring this up now? Because (fingers crossed) we should be seeing something pretty major next week.

    It's still early (and forecasting/models get less accurate the longer out we're looking, so a week out is still take with a LOT of salt), but specifically:

    fdddd502ff0f02aeadb87c785cfb4dce8553ac6deab3f498c34ad89538a2a832.png?w=600&h=405

    There's a thing called an "atmospheric river" - think of it like a river in the sky, moving water from one area to another. Now look at that thing: extending all the way from California to the Philippines and beyond.

    And more than that:

    9cb78562b957d154583f74e78c053eb1f62acd53571b48006d35aca6be925865.png?w=600&h=405

    Temperature anomaly at the same timeframe.


    Anyway, I'm hardly a meteorologist, or even a hobbyist really - but the folks who I read who ARE seem to be pretty excited about this one, and it might actually start to crack that nut.

    e: Going to ignore commenting on the temp anomaly over the mainland :/

    How is this different than El Nino?

    So you are saying I should have bought a ski pass this year?

    https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html
    EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
    DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
    issued by
    CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
    and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
    10 January 2019

    ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Watch


    Synopsis: El Niño is expected to form and continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2019 (~65% chance).

    ENSO-neutral continued during December 2018, despite widespread above-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1]. In the last couple of weeks, all four Niño indices decreased, with the latest weekly values at +0.2°C in the Niño-1+2 region and near +0.7°C in the other regions [Fig. 2]. Positive subsurface temperature anomalies (averaged across 180°-100°W) also weakened [Fig. 3], but above-average temperatures continued at depth across most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 4]. The atmospheric anomalies largely reflected intra-seasonal variability related to the Madden-Julian Oscillation, and have not yet shown a clear coupling to the above-average ocean temperatures. Equatorial convection was generally enhanced west of the Date Line and suppressed east of the Date Line, while anomalies were weak or near average over Indonesia [Fig. 5]. Low-level winds were near average, while upper-level wind anomalies were westerly over the eastern Pacific. The traditional Southern Oscillation index was positive, while the equatorial Southern Oscillation index was slightly negative. Despite the above-average ocean temperatures across the equatorial Pacific Ocean, the overall coupled ocean-atmosphere system continued to reflect ENSO-neutral.

    The majority of models in the IRI/CPC plume predict a Niño3.4 index of +0.5°C or greater to continue through at least the Northern Hemisphere spring 2019 [Fig. 6]. Regardless of the above-average SSTs, the atmospheric circulation over the tropical Pacific has not yet shown clear evidence of coupling to the ocean. The late winter and early spring tend to be the most favorable months for coupling, so forecasters still believe weak El Niño conditions will emerge shortly. However, given the timing and that a weak event is favored, significant global impacts are not anticipated during the remainder of winter, even if conditions were to form. In summary, El Niño is expected to form and continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2019 (~65% chance; click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).

    El Nino is specifically indicated by a change in average sea temperatures that is not (yet) in effect. This is a more local event, so far.

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    Dota2 = Glitchmo
  • VishNubVishNub Registered User regular
    Current snowpack levels are pretty close to historical averages. But, a big, and long, storm could change that.

    heavy low elevation rain fills the lakes and relieves drought conditions. High elevation snow keeps things wet all summer.

    Steam = VishnuOwnz
    Dota2 = Glitchmo
    DoodmannKaroz
  • JragghenJragghen Registered User regular
    Doodmann wrote: »
    Jragghen wrote: »
    <snip>

    How is this different than El Nino?

    So you are saying I should have bought a ski pass this year?

    Okay, going to be getting into a lot of random shit. Let me preface again by noting that I am absolutely not a meteorologist, and hopefully one of the people better suited can chime in and say what of this is bullshit.

    El Nino is a very specific phenomenon, which can LEAD to atmospheric rivers, but is otherwise unrelated.

    Normally in the Pacific Ocean, along the equator, winds move from east to west (so from central america towards Asia/New Guinea). These winds push the warmer surface water to the west, causing currents that causes the water in the east to be colder along the coast of the Americas. El Nino is a reversal of these winds, resulting in warmer ocean surface temperatures along the Americas near the equator. That's it - any other weather patterns discussed of "oh, it's an el nino that means X" are just extrapolating, and they may or may not be accurate (read: may have previously been accurate but as the planet warms, bets are off).

    There is absolutely no scientific consensus right now about whether climate change influences the occurrence, strength, or results of el nino - most anything I post will be speculation that I've read which made sense to me, but please keep in mind that it may be completely incorrect.

    Generally speaking, it's thought that el nino results in a persistent low pressure system in the northern pacific, which allows atmospheric rivers to hit the west coast more easily - that doesn't mean they don't happen outside of El Nino, and recent El Nino events have not necessarily had that full pattern.

    In the past decade, we've been dealing with something referred to as the Ridiculously Resilient Ridge (or, sometimes, the blob when referring to the surface temperature anomaly of the water in the northern pacific). I'll just quote wikipedia here:
    This anomalous atmospheric feature disrupted the North Pacific storm track during the winters of 2012–13, 2013–14, 2014–15, 2017-2018, and dominated the start of the 2018-2019 water year until mid- to late November, resulting in extremely dry and warm conditions in California and along much of the West Coast, contributing to the 2012-2018 North American drought.[3][4] The Ridge comprises the western half of an atmospheric ridge-trough sequence associated with the highly amplified "North American dipole" pattern, which brought persistent anomalous cold and precipitation to the eastern half of North America[5] during 2014 in addition to record-breaking warmth and drought conditions in California.[6]

    This ridge of high pressure has been correlated with a blob of high water temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, which has in and of itself caused changes in weather patterns for North America.[7] However, causality is not established whether the RRR exists because of the blob, or the blob exists because of the RRR.

    The RRR is also associated with the prolonged drought over California as of early 2016, which has shown up as reduced rainfall in Southern California in particular, despite with rather normal snowpack in the Sierra, as well as being suspected, but not yet conclusively proven, to be induced by global warming.[8]

    So....El Nino may or may not cause certain things which may or may not happen as much or not as much due to things which may or may not be caused by global warming.

    Weather!

    Personal take in spoilers:
    I think that the prevalence of atmospheric rivers are driven less by the warm water at the equator and more by the difference in water temps between the northern and southern pacific. El nino happening increases that differential, causing the winds to drive more moisture east. As polar temps get warmer, this differential is harder to reach, so they're happening less frequently, albeit still happening, and "el nino" isn't going to make a difference in their occurrence any longer because they're no longer the dominating factor in why they happen.

    This is based on a grand total of zero science.

  • DoodmannDoodmann Registered User regular
    So I guess my confusion comes from the assumption that any atomospheric river coming from the south pacific would be caused by el nino effects, because what the hell else would cause it.

  • JragghenJragghen Registered User regular
    https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00031.1
    However, there remains some debate as to how these filaments form. In this paper, the authors analyze the transport of water vapor within a climatology of wintertime North Atlantic extratropical cyclones. Results show that atmospheric rivers are formed by the cold front that sweeps up water vapor in the warm sector as it catches up with the warm front. This causes a narrow band of high water vapor content to form ahead of the cold front at the base of the warm conveyor belt airflow. Thus, water vapor in the cyclone’s warm sector, not long-distance transport of water vapor from the subtropics, is responsible for the generation of filaments of high water vapor content. A continuous cycle of evaporation and moisture convergence within the cyclone replenishes water vapor lost via precipitation. Thus, rather than representing a direct and continuous feed of moist air from the subtropics into the center of a cyclone (as suggested by the term “atmospheric river”), these filaments are, in fact, the result of water vapor exported from the cyclone, and thus they represent the footprints left behind as cyclones travel poleward from the subtropics.

    Connecting point a to b, your guess is as good as mine.

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