The new forums will be named Coin Return (based on the most recent vote)! You can check on the status and timeline of the transition to the new forums here.
The Guiding Principles and New Rules document is now in effect.

Midterms 2018: You may now breathe.

StericaSterica YesRegistered User, Moderator mod
edited November 2018 in Social Entropy++
4BntfID.jpg
Election Day is November 6th

Hey, we're almost halfway through this terrible presidency. Or, you know, a quarter of the way if everything truly goes to hell in a handbasket. But that's another thread; for now, let's focus on the midterms. Because 2018 may be one of the most important midterm elections in the history of the US of A.

Being a political thread, there are some special rules in place:
  1. This thread is temporary, and it can be removed at any time.
  2. Do not respond to people that you think are trolling. Report them and move on.
  3. Avoid dogpiles and getting short with people. Most of the posters here will be on the same page politically, so be respectful
  4. Despair is not helpful. While it's understandable to be angry or depressed about the state of the world, posts that are nothing but doomsaying aren't helpful.

What Are Midterms?

For those not familiar, midterms elections are a series of state elections that named because they occur at the middle of a president's term. It is a large opportunity for the face of congress to shift, as all 435 seats in the House are up for reelection, and one-third of the Senate is up as well. Historically, midterms are beneficial to the party that lost the presidency, especially if that party is also a minority in Congress. Unless the sitting president is very popular and doing well, one or both houses of Congress tend to flip for the opposition. Furthermore, two-thirds of the states have governors for reelection, meaning that state governments can also see upheaval. The importance of this cannot be understated: both houses of Congress must vote to pass bills to the White House for final approval into law, and governors can have profound impacts on their state (although the exact power of a governor varies from state to state).

The House
This is the one to watch. The Democrats have a stronger map, with a hearty chunk more of safe seats than Republicans. This should be an easy win, with 538 giving Dems about 3 in 4 odds of taking back the house, but remember that all seats are up in the House, so technically anything is possible. Hopefully 2016 was a good example as to why you can never get complacent. As of writing this, there are about 30 seats that could go either way. And about 15 just lean left, so it's still entirely possible for things to go pear-shaped.

The Senate
The Senate...not so much. This is less that the public is leaning more conservative in the Senate races or in general, and more that this is a really fucking bad map for Democrats. They have 26 seats up for reelection, well over half their total seats in the Senate right now. Compare this to the mere nine that Republicans have, and you see why people aren't getting super excited about flipping the Senate. Even worse is the executive advantage, as Mike Pence gets to cast to the deciding vote in the event of a tie. So a 50-50 split, despite being performing well above expectations, would not be good enough. Still, 538 has Democrats at around the same odds Trump had to win the presidency, and we all saw how that went. Although Democrats also have to actually win the vote so maybe not the best example.

The Governors
State office elections get even less coverage than Congress, and even the megahype of the Blue Wave hasn't really garnered much attention to the gubernatorial races this year. But state governments arguably matter more in many situations; because there's a reason why California has over 150 abortion clinics and why Missouri has one. Polling tends to be weaker for state elections, but currently things favor the right. Both parties have the same number of governors who aren't up for reelection, but Republicans currently have more states polling solidly R than dems. It's unlikely we'll score a majority here, but taking back governors' mansions is something we should collectively be more attention to.

What if Democrats win?
Depends on how Democrats act. All you can really expect is for Trump to fail to get any kind of legislation through Congress and has to resort to executive orders (which are significantly easier to reverse, as Obama has learned). I highly doubt impeachment, be it Trump or new buddy Brett, as Democrats won't have the numbers to make much headway there. This does NOT mean shit will suddenly be okay: Democrats are not our friends and are beholden to the similar groups as Republicans. In all likelihood expect to put a fire to their asses to make sure they aren't quietly fucking up palatable bills or caving in on bad ones.

Dear lord, what if Democrats lose?
If Democrats somehow snatch defeat from the jaws of victory a second time in two years then I don't fucking know. I feel like it would just utterly doom the party as we know it, and force the aging leadership to finally fuck off and make way for new blood. Then again, I thought Trump's darkhorse victory would have shaken up the party more, and yet the old bastards more or less were able to cling to their power. So the most likely outcome is more of the same claptrap until the younger generations gets even more pissed and finally unleashes the primary to end all primaries, and we cheer as socialism is ushered in and the verminous rich are sent to the guillotines.

YL9WnCY.png
Sterica on
«13456791

Posts

  • StericaSterica Yes Registered User, Moderator mod
    Fuck the police.

    YL9WnCY.png
  • CenoCeno pizza time Registered User regular
    edited October 2018
    The house we’re renting used to be rented to some diehard conservative judging by the amount of mail we still get that’s addressed to that person. Today, that included their early voting ballot, which they also neglected to change the address on.

    If I were a lesser person, I’d rip that shit up, but instead I’m writing “no longer at this address” on the envelope and sticking it back in the mail. Wish that made me feel good, but honestly I just want pain for the other side at this point. I’m so fucking exhausted of being furious.

    Ceno on
  • ShortyShorty touching the meat Intergalactic Cool CourtRegistered User regular
    the only good thing in the last two years has been watching the left radicalize in real time

  • Indie WinterIndie Winter die Krähe Rudi Hurzlmeier (German, b. 1952)Registered User regular
    edited October 2018
    good luck to all my american colleagues

    it is important you remember you are not living in an actual democracy

    and voting is vital and important and insufficient to effect true change

    Indie Winter on
    wY6K6Jb.gif
  • WeaverWeaver Breakfast Witch Hashus BrowniusRegistered User regular
    I can see about pushing the importance of voting at work. I hope that with the recent climate change reports, leftists who typically vote third party/abstain/cast protest votes because dems aren't perfect can realize that at least the party cares about climate change. A clean conscience isn't gonna mean jack in forty years when current crop lands turn into a desert.

  • Indie WinterIndie Winter die Krähe Rudi Hurzlmeier (German, b. 1952)Registered User regular
    just blow this out and put it on the message board

    wY6K6Jb.gif
  • Centipede DamascusCentipede Damascus Ho! Ho! Ho! Drink Coke!Registered User regular
    Shorty wrote: »
    the only good thing in the last two years has been watching the left radicalize in real time

    I'm still waiting for UBI to enter the mainstream discourse, but watching Abolish ICE take off was pretty amazing.

  • ph blakeph blake Registered User regular
    No matter what else happens, at least I get to vote against Ted Cruz

    7h8wnycre6vs.png
  • -Tal-Tal Registered User regular
    I would like the democrats to take action on climate change

    PNk1Ml4.png
  • Centipede DamascusCentipede Damascus Ho! Ho! Ho! Drink Coke!Registered User regular
    That's what the Paris Agreement was for, wasn't it?

  • agoajagoaj Top Tier One FearRegistered User regular
    Let's turn up the heat on climate change.

    ujav5b9gwj1s.png
  • -Tal-Tal Registered User regular
    That's what the Paris Agreement was for, wasn't it?

    it's gonna have to be a little more than that toothless thing

    PNk1Ml4.png
  • Centipede DamascusCentipede Damascus Ho! Ho! Ho! Drink Coke!Registered User regular
    Well first things first, they've got to get back in power.

  • BrainleechBrainleech 機知に富んだコメントはここにあります Registered User regular
    edited October 2018
    Weaver wrote: »
    I can see about pushing the importance of voting at work. I hope that with the recent climate change reports, leftists who typically vote third party/abstain/cast protest votes because dems aren't perfect can realize that at least the party cares about climate change. A clean conscience isn't gonna mean jack in forty years when current crop lands turn into a desert.

    It's weird to see all the voting signs they put up at work

    The farming area of the state famous for it's green chili is turning into a desert quicker than they thought .

    Just in the people running for Gov for this state it's basically whomever wins we lose.
    Pushing more police is not the answer to this city's violence problem. When residents have an area called the warzone and the police have the rep for shooting first answering questions later adding more is going to create a bigger problem
    Both are pushing job creation. What jobs? This state is hemorrhaging jobs and people with the rep the state has for violence is not going to attract people. Also it doesn't help some of the credit agencies have threatened to lower the state's credit rate to CCC.

    Brainleech on
  • StericaSterica Yes Registered User, Moderator mod
    -Tal wrote: »
    I would like the democrats to take action on climate change
    Their action won’t be sufficient.

    We’re fucked on climate change. Not human extinction or anything so dramatic, but considerable consequences are basically unavoidable. How bad it gets depends on whether or not younger republicans realize the older ones fucked them over to maximize profit or if they’ll take the torch and hope they too die before shit gets real bad.

    YL9WnCY.png
  • -Tal-Tal Registered User regular
    Well first things first, they've got to get back in power.

    something that might help them get in power is a strong plan of action for climate change

    PNk1Ml4.png
  • Raijin QuickfootRaijin Quickfoot I'm your Huckleberry YOU'RE NO DAISYRegistered User, ClubPA regular
    I have never felt as despondent as I did in 2016. I don't know if I can honestly go through that again.

    I really hope that we can look back on 2016 as a catalyst for positive change and I think these midterms will definitely be a sign one way or another.

  • Speed RacerSpeed Racer Scritch scratch scritch scratch scritch scratch scritch scratch scritch scratch scritch scratch scritch scratch scritch scratch scritch scratch scritch scratch scritch scratch scritch scratchRegistered User regular
    edited October 2018
    I am entirely prepared for the absolute best case scenario being Democrats winning a bunch and doing a bunch of fucking nothing

    Way too many people are under the asinine impression that all our problems started in November 2016

    Speed Racer on
  • Indie WinterIndie Winter die Krähe Rudi Hurzlmeier (German, b. 1952)Registered User regular
    also, hey, america? the whole concept of registering to vote is fucking awful

    I only learned it's even a thing after reports started emerging about hundreds of thousands of people getting purged from the registries

    after abolishing ICE you should abolish the requirement to register

    wY6K6Jb.gif
  • GvzbgulGvzbgul Registered User regular
    Registering to vote is fairly common practice afaik. Eg, Australia has mandatory registration, but people still need to register themselves.

  • -Tal-Tal Registered User regular
    what's cool is that poll taxes are illegal, but you need an id to vote, and getting an id costs money

    PNk1Ml4.png
  • LalaboxLalabox Registered User regular
    i got a one day job as a polling officer at an upcoming by-election in an australian electorate

    direct people, watch the ballot boxes so they aren't tampered with, tick people off the electoral roll etc

    the official handbook guide is an interesting read. Stuff to do with how to help people, or how it is literally illegal to ask for someone's id when they come up (i mean, you're allowed to look at it if they want to use it to show how they're names spelled or something? but they have to offer, and honestly probably don't even need to get to that point anyway)


    it's gonna be an interesting one, because it's one of the richest areas in australia, and it's been a safe seat for the conservative party for a while

    but it looks like both some independent candidates, as well as the opposition party, actually have a shot at it

  • LalaboxLalabox Registered User regular
    i dunno

    i'm going through my own existential crisis of what it means to try and be a part of society and where our world is headed and everything


    but at least it should be interesting working on that day

    and it'll be good to actually have some work

  • Raijin QuickfootRaijin Quickfoot I'm your Huckleberry YOU'RE NO DAISYRegistered User, ClubPA regular
    In no way do I think things will suddenly be better if the dems dominate.

    But I think, for now, it might slow down the hemorrhaging.

  • DouglasDangerDouglasDanger PennsylvaniaRegistered User regular
    The left has to unite and vote for the Dems

    No third party votes

    No protest votes

    It sucks, but it's the only way to take some power from the Republicans

  • -Tal-Tal Registered User regular
    I always vote straight d but then I lie about protest voting to piss off the libs

    PNk1Ml4.png
  • I needed anime to post.I needed anime to post. boom Registered User regular
    i think the effect of third party votes and protest votes are generally overstated

    liEt3nH.png
  • DouglasDangerDouglasDanger PennsylvaniaRegistered User regular
    I've read Nader cost Gore that election, and that Stein and protest Bernie votes cost Hillary the election

  • Indie WinterIndie Winter die Krähe Rudi Hurzlmeier (German, b. 1952)Registered User regular
    nah what "cost" both those the elections was the electoral college system

    wY6K6Jb.gif
  • JayKaosJayKaos Registered User regular
    "Ehh they're both bad I'm not gonna bother" is usually far worse than any third-party or protest votes, number-wise, I believe

    Steam | SW-0844-0908-6004 and my Switch code
  • I needed anime to post.I needed anime to post. boom Registered User regular
    I think it's also dangerous to search for something outside that cost someone an election, rather than focusing on the candidate's failures themselves. Because I mean shit if you want me to list off things that could have cost Hilary an election there's a lot even before we get to her own actions: decades of fox news poison rallying a base, the Comey letter, the innate sexism of the western world...

    Elections are big things with a lot of people and there's not really a single point of failure you can point to and go "Ah, there we go! Fix this and everything works out!"

    liEt3nH.png
  • Raijin QuickfootRaijin Quickfoot I'm your Huckleberry YOU'RE NO DAISYRegistered User, ClubPA regular
    The other issue is this scenario

    We get the dems control again.

    Trump loses in 2020.

    Everyone becomes complacent about politics again because they think they are protected and safe.

    The cycle continues.

  • BucketmanBucketman Call me SkraggRegistered User regular
    I am still registered to vote, but for some reason my state can't get it through their damn heads I moved earlier this year even though I've changed my address on their vote site three times.

    Thankfully I moved up the road, so I'm in the same district and everything.

    Also I'm early voting tomorrow

  • Indie WinterIndie Winter die Krähe Rudi Hurzlmeier (German, b. 1952)Registered User regular
    edited October 2018
    I think it's also dangerous to search for something outside that cost someone an election, rather than focusing on the candidate's failures themselves. Because I mean shit if you want me to list off things that could have cost Hilary an election there's a lot even before we get to her own actions: decades of fox news poison rallying a base, the Comey letter, the innate sexism of the western world...

    Elections are big things with a lot of people and there's not really a single point of failure you can point to and go "Ah, there we go! Fix this and everything works out!"

    I mean, all those are valid points

    but

    3 million more americans still voted for her than they did for trump

    and it didn't matter, because of the way the system is built

    Indie Winter on
    wY6K6Jb.gif
  • I needed anime to post.I needed anime to post. boom Registered User regular
    JayKaos wrote: »
    "Ehh they're both bad I'm not gonna bother" is usually far worse than any third-party or protest votes, number-wise, I believe

    For comparison the 2016 election still only had a pretty standard 58% voter turnout. The assumption that you will never get those people to vote is a large part of what causes a lot of people to swing for the center to get the Swing Voter. In fact the pushes to get people registered to vote and get more people voting feels like a pretty modern, novel view of looking at things. But of course the catch with doing that is that you have to determine what gets those people motivated to vote in the first place, which means trying some new things rather than the old standbys.

    liEt3nH.png
  • PoorochondriacPoorochondriac Ah, man Ah, jeezRegistered User regular
    edited October 2018
    -Tal wrote: »
    what's cool is that poll taxes are illegal, but you need an id to vote, and getting an id costs money

    There's a new North Dakota ID law that forbids having a PO Box as your address

    Not only is this functionally a return to owning property as a voting requirement, it disenfranchises a shitload of indigenous people who don't have "proper" addresses because the the post office doesn't deliver to rural rez locations. They are punished and losing their votes because the government can't bother to bring them their mail.

    Democracy!

    Poorochondriac on
  • Speed RacerSpeed Racer Scritch scratch scritch scratch scritch scratch scritch scratch scritch scratch scritch scratch scritch scratch scritch scratch scritch scratch scritch scratch scritch scratch scritch scratchRegistered User regular
    If protest votes are enough to cause you to lose an election then probably you should find a reason to get those people to stop protesting

    Democrats need to stop running on the platform of "at least we're not the other guys"

  • GrathGrath I'm a much happier person these days Registered User, ClubPA regular
    edited October 2018
    I've read Nader cost Gore that election, and that Stein and protest Bernie votes cost Hillary the election

    There was also a fairly huge amount of old people that hate Trump, but hated Hilary more and voted Trump purely out of that hate. I work with and interact with a lot of olds. Pretty much every one of them says "I would have voted for Bernie but I'd never vote for her. They always say the "her" with such hatred in their voice.

    Grath on
  • DouglasDangerDouglasDanger PennsylvaniaRegistered User regular
    The Democrats do need a focused message

    Their platform or whatever of not being bigots and supporting minorities is a good start, but they need a strong, focused message

    The awful, moronic, racist Build the Wall shit had a concrete, tangible goal

    The awful, moronic, fascist Lock Her Up thing also had a focused goal

    The Dems need a goal that can't be turned into a slogan

  • Mr. GMr. G Registered User regular
    If protest votes are enough to cause you to lose an election then probably you should find a reason to get those people to stop protesting

    Democrats need to stop running on the platform of "at least we're not the other guys"

    and maybe, just maybe, Democrats could start running on the platform of "supporting the actually progressive Democrats that people are excited about and engaged with"

    The leaders of the party are actively fighting against the idea that they are outdated and their replacements are already here, and it will ruin their chances now and forever if they keep resisting it

    in what universe are West Virginia democrats supposed to support Joe Manchin

    6F32U1X.png
This discussion has been closed.