Hey guys, we have a Jeffe blessed election thread finally.FORBIDDEN TOPICS VIA JEFFE:
The 2020 primary
Kanye fucking West's record promotion
Generally speaking, this is not yet another thread to discuss how the Democrats are evil and must be destroyed.
So hey, on November 3 there's a presidential election, lots of Senate elections, and an election for the entire House. Also featured, state legislatures, governors, mayors, district attorneys, ballot measures, etc. For now, we're going with the fuck it megathread until a mod says otherwiseThe Presidency.
It's Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump. Obviously there's lots to discuss here because we keep discussing it in other threads. Lets try to keep all the electoral implications of stuff talk in here. Also running: some Libertarian and Green Party candidates whose names I can never remember. Not running: that asshole who's promoting his album, don't fall for it.
Jo Jorgenson is the Libertarian
Howie Hawkins is the Green
Biden has said all along his VP nominee will be a woman. In the wake of the George Floyd protests, conventional wisdom says he has to pick a black woman. Let's run down the contenders real fast:
DC insiders basically agree that the frontrunner is Kamala Harris
, the Senator from California. She ran for president, didn't raise enough money and didn't make it Iowa. Pretty liberal record in the Senate, very strong in confirmation hearings, pretty good on the attack in debates in the way that the media likes. Would probably smack Pence around in amusing ways. Critics on the left would say her record on criminal justice as a prosecutor and California's AG are not correct for the moment. Which makes it funnier that...
The dark horse is Rep. Val Demings
from Florida. She represents Orlando and the surrounding area in Congress. Before that she was the Orlando police chief, with all the ways that naturally compromises you on police issues. She was one of the impeachment managers and generally has done well in that type of setting. Her voting record puts her almost exactly in the center of the Democratic caucus, which makes her a natural fit for Biden.Stacey Abrams
had the Governor's mansion in Georgia stolen from her by Brian Kemp's election fraud. She's a former minority leader in the Georgia state Senate and a voting rights activist. She probably wants the job the most out of the contenders. Her politics are about what you'd expect from a black woman who was elected governor of Georgia. Not a firebrand (except on voting rights), she promotes her practicality (because...she was the minority leader in Georgia).
People mention Susan Rice
, President Obama's National Security Advisor sometimes. It's a weird option that's never made sense to me, given who Joe Biden is and his reputation is that he's strong on foreign affairs already.
The only white woman who seems to be mentioned anymore is Elizabeth Warren
, the Senator from Massachusetts. She's the most popular choice every time the question is asked, especially among young people where Biden needs an enthusiasm boost. But she also has the highest name recognition. She's all about calling for "big structural change" and her advocates would say that she is the most likely candidate to push Biden to seek structural solutions rather than putting band-aids on things. This is backed up by how much more Biden sounds like Warren than he did four months ago. She also is the only candidate who has experience building an executive branch institution from scratch, would is a pretty important skill for the next president. Full disclosure: I am a massive Warren fan and pretty obviously think she should be the candidate...for president. I'll take VP though.The Senate
The Senate map this year. Dark colors indicate retiring incumbents, light colors indicate Senators running for re-election. Georgia has both their regular election and a special election.
Doug Jones (D, inc) vs. Tommy Tuberville (R). Jones is a civil rights hero and incumbent Senator who got elected in a special election when Roy Moore turned out to be prey on teenage girls. Tuberville is the former head football coach at Auburn, who is running on being even Trumpier than Jeff Sessions, who he beat in the primary. He's also a notoriously mercenary asshole who bailed on his teams all the time for different jobs. And once gave a player a one game suspension for raping a 15 year old.
Polls: Lean TubervilleColorado
John Hickenlooper (D) vs. Cory Gardner (R, inc). Hickenlooper is a boring former governor of Colorado who ran for president and did not connect because he's boring. But Coloradans love him and he cruised to victory in the primary. He's up against Cory Gardner, who is a boring Trump sycophant. Colorado is racing left over the last decade, which has made Gardner the most likely Democratic pickup in this cycle for like six years.
Polls: Likely HickenlooperArizona
Mark Kelly (D) vs. Martha McSally (R, inc). Kelly is a former astronaut and the husband of former Congresswoman Gabby Giffords. He's running on an anti-gun platform, among other things. McSally is an appointed Senator who has John McCain's former seat. She lost to Kyrsten Sinema last time around but the GOP has brought her back in a move that feels very DNC to me. She is...not favored to win.
Polls: Likely KellyMaine
Sara Gideon (D) vs. Susan Collins (R, inc). Gideon is the former Speaker of the House in Maine. Susan Collins is very concerned. She blew up her moderate reputation in the last four years, and particularly enraged people when she voted to confirm Brett Kavanaugh. Recently, she's been demanding weekly debates with Gideon. Losing candidates want more debates, and polls say that she is the second least popular Senator in the country. Still, never sleep on long time incumbents.
Polls: Lean GideonNorth Carolina
Cal Cunningham (D) vs. Thom Tillis (R, inc). They haaaaaaaate Tillis. Cunningham is like, boring white southern Democrat incarnate, but Tillis' favorability ratings suck. Not as much as Collins or the guy we'll get to in a minute, but they suuuuuuck.
Polls: (slight) lean CunninghamMontana
Steve Bullock (D) vs. Steve Daines (R, inc). Montana's a weird state. They keep electing Democratic governors and Jon Tester, even though you'd think they're solidly R based on presidential results. Bullock is the current Democratic governor and quite popular there. Daines feels like a non-entity, just a standard mountain west Republican who votes like you'd expect. Race is close.
Polls: toss up, maybe slight (like 2 point) advantage to BullockIowa
Theresa Greenfield (D) vs. Joni Ernst (R, inc). Iowa's toying with returning from its adventures in crazy town. Ernst is not popular (note a running theme here). I would guess it has a lot to do with Trump's agricultural tariffs, but not sure. Greenfield is a businesswoman. The only poll that matters in Iowa (DMR/Selzer) had Greenfield leading the last time it was in the field and Ernst is another incumbent demanding more debates.
Polls: Average says toss up, Selzer says lean GreenfieldKansas
Primary on August 4. Likely winners are Barbara Bollier (D) vs. Kris Kobach (R). Bollier's been a member of the state senate for a while, previously a doctor. She was a Republican until two years ago (Kansas!). Kobach, of course, is the American Heydrich and is an absolute fucking monster who must be stopped. Fortunately, he's lost a statewide race in Kansas recently (Governor 2018) and it's entirely possible he could do so again.
Polls: toss up if it's Kobach. If not, likely R.South Carolina
Jaime Harrison (D) vs. Lindsay Graham (R, inc). Trump's caddy is also pretty unpopular and Harrison is running a hell of a campaign. He's still a Democrat, and a black Democrat at that, in South Carolina so he's got an uphill battle. Not a ton of polls, but the last one had the race tied (!). This is a wave watch race. Possible to pickup but the state's innate South Carolinaness probably holds it for Graham
Polls: (slight) lean GrahamTexas
MJ Hegar (D) vs. Jon Cornyn (R, inc). Hegar is a veteran who fended off a challenge from Royce West in the primary. Texas is slooooowly approaching purple and maybe this race is a thing. But Hegar has not caught on nationally like a lot of these candidates have, fundraising wise (only 1.7 million in Q2). Wish Beto O'Rourke was running again, he'd have a shot. Cornyn is again...not popular.
Polls: likely CornynKentucky
Amy McGrath (D) vs. Mitch McConnell (R, inc). McGrath is a veteran who fended off a strong challenge from Charles Booker in the primary. Was a very close, very closely watched race. She emerges with just an absolutely ridiculous amount of money because national Democrats want Mitch McConnell gone desperately. Can she win? It's Kentucky so probably not. They released an internal recently showing it close, but she only had 41%.
Polls: Lean/likely McConnell (I mean, it's Kentucky)Georgia
Jon Ossoff (D) vs. David Perdue (R, inc). Ossoff lost the most expensive House race in history early in Trump's term. In a pretty red district. He's back and running statewide. Georgia is a competitive state and if we trusted the electoral apparatus (see VP discussion above) it might be a state that Dems are slight favorites in. As if, with disenfranchisement accounted for, we have to say Perdue is a small favorite I think.
Polls: lean PerdueGeorgia special
Jungle nonsense on election day. Runoff is inevitable. Your candidates: incumbent appointed Senator Kelly Loeffler (R). She's super rich, super racist, and super corrupt. She is not favored to win. Likely to be leading after the first ballot is Doug Collins, who is even more racist than she is. He's currently in Congress and an absolute nutcase. Three Democrats are running. Joe Lieberman's kid Matt, is the first. Gross. Ed Tarver was the US Attorney for the Southern District of Georgia. Raphael Warnock is a civil rights leader and the pastor at Ebeneezer Baptist Church (MLK's church).
Polls: ???????? Collins leads most of them with about 30% (the Trumpiest base). Loeffler, Lieberman, and Warnock are all somewhere in the teens and Tarver is in single digits. Abrams endorsed Warnock, FWIW.Michigan
Gary Peters (D, inc) vs. John James. Peters is almost stunningly boring. Except he does have weird dad charisma which he used successfully to win the state in a GOP wave year in 2014. James is a thing that the GOP wants to make happen, much like Gretchen wants to make "fetch" happen. It did not in 2018. It doesn't appear likely to this year. But whatever. He's a Trump businessman and former helicopter pilot. But he's black! This is basically the only Democratic incumbent other than Jones that the GOP is even making a token effort to defeat
Polls: likely Peters
If things go absolutely pear shaped for the GOP, there's some chance that Dan Sullivan loses in Alaska. But Alaska politics is weird and I'm not even going to attempt to understand it.Senate TL;DR
Current margin is 53-47 for the Republicans. Democrats need a net gain of three seats and the presidency to take control of the chamber. The most likely path at the moment is:
Likely pickups: CO, AZ
Lean pickups: ME, NC
Likely loss: AL
The road to 60... in approximate order of likelihood:
CO, AZ, ME, NC, MT, IA, KS, GA, GA special, hold AL, KS, SC, TX, KY, AK (all of them would get 61 and that's the best possible in even ridiculous pipe dream scenarios, I think)
Somewhere in the low 50s is the most likely outcome right now because...The state of presidential polling
Biden is ahead. By a lot. Average is somewhere in the 9-10 point range nationally. State polls basically reflect that. Though Biden is unusually strong for a Democrat in Florida (+6) because old white people like him more than the average Democrat. Using 538's averages, Biden has at least 5 point leads in states with 307 electoral votes. He further leads NC (3.2 points), AZ (3.1), OH (2.6), GA (1.7), and I think both of the swing districts (NE-2 and ME-2) that award their EV separately. which gets him to 369. Iowa (6) is tied. Biden is 1.3 points behind in Texas (38). Which would be 413 and hilarious.
Now, obviously it's just July and there's a long way to go. It's likely the race will tighten and we are once again focusing on just PA, MI, WI, AZ, and FL. Complicating everything is the pandemic and the expected resulting massive early vote, which is likely to delay results. And given the way those things are trending partisan, the same day vote might favor Trump with Biden coming back with the absentee voting so we're going to need the media to be responsible on election night. Which is a dubious proposition.The House
Not a ton of polling for individual House races, but the generic ballot is pretty much in line with Biden/Trump. Slightly more favorable to the GOP but not much. Safe assumption at the moment is that the House next year looks a lot like the House this year.Statewides
Look up your state legislature race! I'm sure there are important governors races but I've been paying less attention to that since Michigan does ours in off years. Same deal with ballot initiatives.
Sure, what the fuck, we're all gonna die anyway. Let's YOLO this motherfucker.
Be nice to the mods, they're having a rough go of it.
Again: NO BERNIE. NO REHASH OF 2016. NO REHASH OF THE PRIMARY. NO KANYE.
Herbert Hoover got 40% of the vote in 1932. Friendly reminder.