Let me put it this way. Would you say Doug Jones is:
Going to win
Might win
Toss up
Might lose
Not going to win
LOL FUCKED
I'm guessing most people here have him in LOL FUCKED or Not going to win, right?
Doug Jones has double Trump's chances of winning on 538's tracker. That still puts Trump at Russian Roulette levels of possible "winning", but..it's not where you want to be right now.
Doug jones doesn't have an entire domestic party apparatus working hard to cheat in various ways. Polls do not account for election fuckery afaik.
I mean logically a 10 point lead can't be overcome with anything less than rather extreme levels of fuckery, but the effect is still there
He's running in Alabama man. He's got a century+ old apparatus working hard to cheat him out of votes.
They didnt want to arrest them" sounds awfully like an extrajudicial execution. I mean in the netherlands we had that happen to armed hijackers who had already killed hostages...
Guess what, even then our government tried to hide that fact out of shame and have gotten shat on for it for 40 years.
Having a first world president bragging about it is a new low to me.
Edit: go go US death squads, they come in all different colors!
So, an impression that I have seen from Trumpland is that nobody there trust the polls, since they are "Fake polls by the Fake News". This article confirms it:
President Donald Trump trails Joe Biden by 10 points in national polls. He’s getting badly outspent due to a depleted warchest. And his contraction of the coronavirus has yet again turned a harsh light on his handling of a seven-month pandemic.
A good number of rank-and-file Republican voters and local party officials see no cause for concern. They’re still convinced Trump is winning.
Far outside the political media centers of Washington, D.C. and New York, the Trump voters who propelled the reality TV star to a shock victory in 2016 once again see him on a glide path to victory that will stupefy only a hostile media and out-of-touch elites.
The frenzied crowds he’s attracting as he returns to the trail and the Trump banners flying in their neighborhoods measure enthusiasm that can’t be accurately tracked by surveys, they argue. The cascade of negative stories from his downplaying of the pandemic to his private insults of military service members are shrugged off or disbelieved.
And remember how wrong many of the state-based polls were last time? They certainly do.
And it goes all the way to the GOP campaign machine:
When recited a set of recent polls showing Trump down 7 to 10 points in Wisconsin, Richard Kucksdorf, a GOP chairman in rural Shawano County, appeared to revel in the doomsday data for his candidate.
“Good for them. Make it 10%. Make it 15%. Who cares what the polls say? I certainly don’t,” Kucksdorf said. “Do I think that’s what’s going to happen on Election Day? No. I believe 25% of Black Americans and 50% of Hispanic Americans are going to vote for Trump. … I think he’s going to win in a landslide.”
An alarmingly visceral and hardened distrust of the media among Republicans has created a parallel political universe around the country: One where a Trump defeat is almost unfathomable, especially when that possibility is perpetuated by sources they have viewed as hostile for the last four years.
“Take no offense,” offered former Pennsylvania GOP Gov. Tom Corbett in a recent interview, “Nobody believes you guys.”
With Democrats disproportionately dominating the early vote — nearly 12 million ballots have already been cast — Republicans are facing more discouraging reams of data they’ll need to counter.
Even that, to some Republicans, can be turned into an advantage.
“If anything these polls are more harmful to Democrats,” said David Buell, a former GOP official in Nevada’s Washoe County, who sees Trump in a better position to win his state this year than in 2016. “If I’m a Democrat I think we’ve got it made, what do I need to go out and vote for in the middle of a pandemic?”
25% of African Americans and 50% of Latinx?
There's delusion, and then there's whatever the fuck that is.
Let me put it this way. Would you say Doug Jones is:
Going to win
Might win
Toss up
Might lose
Not going to win
LOL FUCKED
I'm guessing most people here have him in LOL FUCKED or Not going to win, right?
Doug Jones has double Trump's chances of winning on 538's tracker. That still puts Trump at Russian Roulette levels of possible "winning", but..it's not where you want to be right now.
That's not an apples to apples comparison. The default senate model takes into account things like fundraising totals and how sites the race is listed by sites like Cook. Alabama's a state where the incumbent is behind and there's little polling, I think you're going to end up with a really conservative forecast. For example, Jones is going to have more of an opportunity for out-of-state funding than you'd expect of a Dem in a red state, and experts tend to be conservative when rating a losing incumbent (Cook will realistically only move him to likely R if they see effectively 0 chance of him winning). By comparison, if you look at the polls-only forecast, Jones has only a 6% chance of winning.
On the other hand, the worry about Trump is ratfucking, and that's not captured in 538's forecast. Pennsylvania gets brought up a lot as a state where the rules are going to strongly benefit Republicans, and a good chunk of (mostly Dem) mail in ballots will probably be thrown out. That'll make the difference in a close race. And Florida Dems get fucked over perennially. So let's say the race shifts just a couple points relative to 538's current prediction, and NC/ME2/GA flip back to Trump. That's not at all unreasonable. Now let's say PA and FL shift an extra couple points because the state GOP puts their fingers on the scale, and Trump wins those as well. At that point, Biden has 270 EVs--Trump winning any of AZ/WI/NE2 is enough to deny Biden a victory. Even a single faithless elector would be enough to deny Biden a victory (although this might not happen in light of Chiafalo v Washington, and since in
this case an elector can't take a "principled stand" without throwing the election to the House).
I'm not saying that I think that'll happen. If I bet today, I'd bet on a Biden victory. But it is a potential outcome that 538 doesn't (can't) take into account, so I think Trump's chances are higher than their numbers.
So, an impression that I have seen from Trumpland is that nobody there trust the polls, since they are "Fake polls by the Fake News". This article confirms it:
President Donald Trump trails Joe Biden by 10 points in national polls. He’s getting badly outspent due to a depleted warchest. And his contraction of the coronavirus has yet again turned a harsh light on his handling of a seven-month pandemic.
A good number of rank-and-file Republican voters and local party officials see no cause for concern. They’re still convinced Trump is winning.
Far outside the political media centers of Washington, D.C. and New York, the Trump voters who propelled the reality TV star to a shock victory in 2016 once again see him on a glide path to victory that will stupefy only a hostile media and out-of-touch elites.
The frenzied crowds he’s attracting as he returns to the trail and the Trump banners flying in their neighborhoods measure enthusiasm that can’t be accurately tracked by surveys, they argue. The cascade of negative stories from his downplaying of the pandemic to his private insults of military service members are shrugged off or disbelieved.
And remember how wrong many of the state-based polls were last time? They certainly do.
And it goes all the way to the GOP campaign machine:
When recited a set of recent polls showing Trump down 7 to 10 points in Wisconsin, Richard Kucksdorf, a GOP chairman in rural Shawano County, appeared to revel in the doomsday data for his candidate.
“Good for them. Make it 10%. Make it 15%. Who cares what the polls say? I certainly don’t,” Kucksdorf said. “Do I think that’s what’s going to happen on Election Day? No. I believe 25% of Black Americans and 50% of Hispanic Americans are going to vote for Trump. … I think he’s going to win in a landslide.”
An alarmingly visceral and hardened distrust of the media among Republicans has created a parallel political universe around the country: One where a Trump defeat is almost unfathomable, especially when that possibility is perpetuated by sources they have viewed as hostile for the last four years.
“Take no offense,” offered former Pennsylvania GOP Gov. Tom Corbett in a recent interview, “Nobody believes you guys.”
With Democrats disproportionately dominating the early vote — nearly 12 million ballots have already been cast — Republicans are facing more discouraging reams of data they’ll need to counter.
Even that, to some Republicans, can be turned into an advantage.
“If anything these polls are more harmful to Democrats,” said David Buell, a former GOP official in Nevada’s Washoe County, who sees Trump in a better position to win his state this year than in 2016. “If I’m a Democrat I think we’ve got it made, what do I need to go out and vote for in the middle of a pandemic?”
25% of African Americans and 50% of Latinx?
There's delusion, and then there's whatever the fuck that is.
And it’s incredibly dangerous. If Biden pulls through in November, these are the ones who will say “he must have cheated”, because they won’t be able to accept that they were wrong. The Venn diagram of these folks and the people who will commit violence in the wake of a Democratic victory is pretty close to a circle.
Let me put it this way. Would you say Doug Jones is:
Going to win
Might win
Toss up
Might lose
Not going to win
LOL FUCKED
I'm guessing most people here have him in LOL FUCKED or Not going to win, right?
Doug Jones has double Trump's chances of winning on 538's tracker. That still puts Trump at Russian Roulette levels of possible "winning", but..it's not where you want to be right now.
Doug jones doesn't have an entire domestic party apparatus working hard to cheat in various ways. Polls do not account for election fuckery afaik.
I mean logically a 10 point lead can't be overcome with anything less than rather extreme levels of fuckery, but the effect is still there
Polls partially bake election fuckery into the LV models. Depending on the poll. And 538's estimates do account for that as best they can as well.
For the third time, Georgia demonstrably had fuckery, and there were 5/4 polls each giving Kemp a +2/+1 lead in the final month to the three combined giving Abrams a +1 or +2 lead, plus another four showing a tie. (Also one in the last few days at Abrams +4, and one trash from Trafalgar with Kemp +12.) That averages out to around a .3% lead for Kemp, well within the margin of error of the final results at Kemp +1.4. There's very little reason to think that Republican efforts can move a race demonstrably away from the polls.
That same margin also allows election fuckery in the several percent range. You can't meaningfully pull "Yes they did or no they didn't" because you don't know where the actual results fell in the MOE. And the evidence was destroyed.
Also there are other types of election fuckery that 100% happened. Removing people from the rolls in extremely dubious ways, and mostly in Dem areas. Voter ID, then closing down the places black people would get IDs. Long polling lines in Dem areas but NOT GOP areas, due to polling place cuts. Etc.
I am almost certain that the Marshalls either wanted to kill the guy or didn’t care if they did, and almost certain that Barr made it a priority to have him arrested, but that is standard cop/top cop behavior. It doesn’t need to be a complex political hit for Trump to be happy the dude is dead, because he’s a ghoulish strong man who got told one of his enemies died
So, an impression that I have seen from Trumpland is that nobody there trust the polls, since they are "Fake polls by the Fake News". This article confirms it:
President Donald Trump trails Joe Biden by 10 points in national polls. He’s getting badly outspent due to a depleted warchest. And his contraction of the coronavirus has yet again turned a harsh light on his handling of a seven-month pandemic.
A good number of rank-and-file Republican voters and local party officials see no cause for concern. They’re still convinced Trump is winning.
Far outside the political media centers of Washington, D.C. and New York, the Trump voters who propelled the reality TV star to a shock victory in 2016 once again see him on a glide path to victory that will stupefy only a hostile media and out-of-touch elites.
The frenzied crowds he’s attracting as he returns to the trail and the Trump banners flying in their neighborhoods measure enthusiasm that can’t be accurately tracked by surveys, they argue. The cascade of negative stories from his downplaying of the pandemic to his private insults of military service members are shrugged off or disbelieved.
And remember how wrong many of the state-based polls were last time? They certainly do.
And it goes all the way to the GOP campaign machine:
When recited a set of recent polls showing Trump down 7 to 10 points in Wisconsin, Richard Kucksdorf, a GOP chairman in rural Shawano County, appeared to revel in the doomsday data for his candidate.
“Good for them. Make it 10%. Make it 15%. Who cares what the polls say? I certainly don’t,” Kucksdorf said. “Do I think that’s what’s going to happen on Election Day? No. I believe 25% of Black Americans and 50% of Hispanic Americans are going to vote for Trump. … I think he’s going to win in a landslide.”
An alarmingly visceral and hardened distrust of the media among Republicans has created a parallel political universe around the country: One where a Trump defeat is almost unfathomable, especially when that possibility is perpetuated by sources they have viewed as hostile for the last four years.
“Take no offense,” offered former Pennsylvania GOP Gov. Tom Corbett in a recent interview, “Nobody believes you guys.”
With Democrats disproportionately dominating the early vote — nearly 12 million ballots have already been cast — Republicans are facing more discouraging reams of data they’ll need to counter.
Even that, to some Republicans, can be turned into an advantage.
“If anything these polls are more harmful to Democrats,” said David Buell, a former GOP official in Nevada’s Washoe County, who sees Trump in a better position to win his state this year than in 2016. “If I’m a Democrat I think we’ve got it made, what do I need to go out and vote for in the middle of a pandemic?”
25% of African Americans and 50% of Latinx?
There's delusion, and then there's whatever the fuck that is.
And it’s incredibly dangerous. If Biden pulls through in November, these are the ones who will say “he must have cheated”, because they won’t be able to accept that they were wrong. The Venn diagram of these folks and the people who will commit violence in the wake of a Democratic victory is pretty close to a circle.
Yep. Even if the polls are pretty much spot on accurate, that'll be taken as proof that the votes were modified to reflect the polls. Polls underperformed, more proof that they're rigging the vote. Overperformed? Well, they had to make it close, you see, otherwise it wouldn't be believeable.
I have family in various parts of the US. I'm sincerely scared for them. Things are going to get bad, worse in the short term if Biden wins, worse in the long term if Trump does.
So, an impression that I have seen from Trumpland is that nobody there trust the polls, since they are "Fake polls by the Fake News". This article confirms it:
President Donald Trump trails Joe Biden by 10 points in national polls. He’s getting badly outspent due to a depleted warchest. And his contraction of the coronavirus has yet again turned a harsh light on his handling of a seven-month pandemic.
A good number of rank-and-file Republican voters and local party officials see no cause for concern. They’re still convinced Trump is winning.
Far outside the political media centers of Washington, D.C. and New York, the Trump voters who propelled the reality TV star to a shock victory in 2016 once again see him on a glide path to victory that will stupefy only a hostile media and out-of-touch elites.
The frenzied crowds he’s attracting as he returns to the trail and the Trump banners flying in their neighborhoods measure enthusiasm that can’t be accurately tracked by surveys, they argue. The cascade of negative stories from his downplaying of the pandemic to his private insults of military service members are shrugged off or disbelieved.
And remember how wrong many of the state-based polls were last time? They certainly do.
And it goes all the way to the GOP campaign machine:
When recited a set of recent polls showing Trump down 7 to 10 points in Wisconsin, Richard Kucksdorf, a GOP chairman in rural Shawano County, appeared to revel in the doomsday data for his candidate.
“Good for them. Make it 10%. Make it 15%. Who cares what the polls say? I certainly don’t,” Kucksdorf said. “Do I think that’s what’s going to happen on Election Day? No. I believe 25% of Black Americans and 50% of Hispanic Americans are going to vote for Trump. … I think he’s going to win in a landslide.”
An alarmingly visceral and hardened distrust of the media among Republicans has created a parallel political universe around the country: One where a Trump defeat is almost unfathomable, especially when that possibility is perpetuated by sources they have viewed as hostile for the last four years.
“Take no offense,” offered former Pennsylvania GOP Gov. Tom Corbett in a recent interview, “Nobody believes you guys.”
With Democrats disproportionately dominating the early vote — nearly 12 million ballots have already been cast — Republicans are facing more discouraging reams of data they’ll need to counter.
Even that, to some Republicans, can be turned into an advantage.
“If anything these polls are more harmful to Democrats,” said David Buell, a former GOP official in Nevada’s Washoe County, who sees Trump in a better position to win his state this year than in 2016. “If I’m a Democrat I think we’ve got it made, what do I need to go out and vote for in the middle of a pandemic?”
I don't think trump is 'winning', but I bet it's a lot closer than we hope
but of course, I'll never be able to look at politics without being gun shy again
There are a hell of a lot of people who have, and are going to, quietly vote for Trump to support their deeply held racism - or because they want tax breaks.
This is going to be a lot closer than people think. Particularly because it's not going to be a nation wide race - It's going to be a few key districts in select locations.
And that's before the fuckery.
Districts don't matter (beyond fucking up vote counting either accidentally or "accidentally"). States do. A Florida 2000 or 100k 2016 situation only matters if the race is close enough for it to be a problem. Trump's margin of victory in 2016 was incredibly tiny and they've gotten thumped in pretty much every election since. Including 2018 when Trump and parts of the GOP were very confidently expecting a blowout.
It's not over, and it'll closer than the polls suggest, but there isn't a huge contingent of stealth Trump support out there.
I won't feel comfortable about Any polls or what the news tells me on election day until biden is sworn in in January.
I am almost certain that the Marshalls either wanted to kill the guy or didn’t care if they did, and almost certain that Barr made it a priority to have him arrested, but that is standard cop/top cop behavior. It doesn’t need to be a complex political hit for Trump to be happy the dude is dead, because he’s a ghoulish strong man who got told one of his enemies died
So, an impression that I have seen from Trumpland is that nobody there trust the polls, since they are "Fake polls by the Fake News". This article confirms it:
President Donald Trump trails Joe Biden by 10 points in national polls. He’s getting badly outspent due to a depleted warchest. And his contraction of the coronavirus has yet again turned a harsh light on his handling of a seven-month pandemic.
A good number of rank-and-file Republican voters and local party officials see no cause for concern. They’re still convinced Trump is winning.
Far outside the political media centers of Washington, D.C. and New York, the Trump voters who propelled the reality TV star to a shock victory in 2016 once again see him on a glide path to victory that will stupefy only a hostile media and out-of-touch elites.
The frenzied crowds he’s attracting as he returns to the trail and the Trump banners flying in their neighborhoods measure enthusiasm that can’t be accurately tracked by surveys, they argue. The cascade of negative stories from his downplaying of the pandemic to his private insults of military service members are shrugged off or disbelieved.
And remember how wrong many of the state-based polls were last time? They certainly do.
And it goes all the way to the GOP campaign machine:
When recited a set of recent polls showing Trump down 7 to 10 points in Wisconsin, Richard Kucksdorf, a GOP chairman in rural Shawano County, appeared to revel in the doomsday data for his candidate.
“Good for them. Make it 10%. Make it 15%. Who cares what the polls say? I certainly don’t,” Kucksdorf said. “Do I think that’s what’s going to happen on Election Day? No. I believe 25% of Black Americans and 50% of Hispanic Americans are going to vote for Trump. … I think he’s going to win in a landslide.”
An alarmingly visceral and hardened distrust of the media among Republicans has created a parallel political universe around the country: One where a Trump defeat is almost unfathomable, especially when that possibility is perpetuated by sources they have viewed as hostile for the last four years.
“Take no offense,” offered former Pennsylvania GOP Gov. Tom Corbett in a recent interview, “Nobody believes you guys.”
With Democrats disproportionately dominating the early vote — nearly 12 million ballots have already been cast — Republicans are facing more discouraging reams of data they’ll need to counter.
Even that, to some Republicans, can be turned into an advantage.
“If anything these polls are more harmful to Democrats,” said David Buell, a former GOP official in Nevada’s Washoe County, who sees Trump in a better position to win his state this year than in 2016. “If I’m a Democrat I think we’ve got it made, what do I need to go out and vote for in the middle of a pandemic?”
25% of African Americans and 50% of Latinx?
There's delusion, and then there's whatever the fuck that is.
And it’s incredibly dangerous. If Biden pulls through in November, these are the ones who will say “he must have cheated”, because they won’t be able to accept that they were wrong. The Venn diagram of these folks and the people who will commit violence in the wake of a Democratic victory is pretty close to a circle.
Yep. Even if the polls are pretty much spot on accurate, that'll be taken as proof that the votes were modified to reflect the polls. Polls underperformed, more proof that they're rigging the vote. Overperformed? Well, they had to make it close, you see, otherwise it wouldn't be believeable.
I have family in various parts of the US. I'm sincerely scared for them. Things are going to get bad, worse in the short term if Biden wins, worse in the long term if Trump does.
But what will Fox News tell them to think? Maybe fox will calm them down. Honestly, they might. I think fox is happiest when they're complaining about a dem in charge.
OAN on the other hand will tell everyone to kidnap the nearest dem governor.
To every person who chipped in a few dollars last month — thank you. Because of your support, we raised an astounding $383 million. I'm incredibly humbled.
There's still more work to be done, but I wanted to share the good news with Trimicka, one of our grassroots supporters.
383 million? Holy fuck.
This is awesome and I 100% support Biden, but why am I getting 383 million texts per hour suggesting the Democrat party's fundraising has been on the brink of disaster and failure unless I tip $25 immediately.
I thought...I thought my $25 was saving reality from collapsing in on itself. *sniffle*
I am almost certain that the Marshalls either wanted to kill the guy or didn’t care if they did, and almost certain that Barr made it a priority to have him arrested, but that is standard cop/top cop behavior. It doesn’t need to be a complex political hit for Trump to be happy the dude is dead, because he’s a ghoulish strong man who got told one of his enemies died
To every person who chipped in a few dollars last month — thank you. Because of your support, we raised an astounding $383 million. I'm incredibly humbled.
There's still more work to be done, but I wanted to share the good news with Trimicka, one of our grassroots supporters.
383 million? Holy fuck.
This is awesome and I 100% support Biden, but why am I getting 383 million texts per hour suggesting the Democrat party's fundraising has been on the brink of disaster and failure unless I tip $25 immediately.
I thought...I thought my $25 was saving reality from collapsing in on itself. *sniffle*
Because supposedly their data says that people give more money in response to imminent doom than anything else.
Self-righteousness is incompatible with coalition building.
I am almost certain that the Marshalls either wanted to kill the guy or didn’t care if they did, and almost certain that Barr made it a priority to have him arrested, but that is standard cop/top cop behavior. It doesn’t need to be a complex political hit for Trump to be happy the dude is dead, because he’s a ghoulish strong man who got told one of his enemies died
To every person who chipped in a few dollars last month — thank you. Because of your support, we raised an astounding $383 million. I'm incredibly humbled.
There's still more work to be done, but I wanted to share the good news with Trimicka, one of our grassroots supporters.
383 million? Holy fuck.
This is awesome and I 100% support Biden, but why am I getting 383 million texts per hour suggesting the Democrat party's fundraising has been on the brink of disaster and failure unless I tip $25 immediately.
I thought...I thought my $25 was saving reality from collapsing in on itself. *sniffle*
Because supposedly their data says that people give more money in response to imminent doom than anything else.
I mean, they're not wrong in that RBG's death was the "oh shit" moment that woke a lot of people up and got them to throw cash at the problem.
It would have been really nice if they'd figured that out back in 2016, when there was something we could do about it, but here we fucking are.
(The time to buy a new fire engine is before the house catches fire, not while it's burning down. )
Commander Zoom on
+42
Options
ElJeffeRoaming the streets, waving his mod gun around.Moderator, ClubPAMod Emeritus
I am almost certain that the Marshalls either wanted to kill the guy or didn’t care if they did, and almost certain that Barr made it a priority to have him arrested, but that is standard cop/top cop behavior. It doesn’t need to be a complex political hit for Trump to be happy the dude is dead, because he’s a ghoulish strong man who got told one of his enemies died
This contradicts nothing I said, because like... cops murder people without direct orders from the president, that's kind of a whole thing.
Way offtopic.
I submitted an entry to Lego Ideas, and if 10,000 people support me, it'll be turned into an actual Lego set!If you'd like to see and support my submission, follow this link.
+2
Options
Gabriel_Pitt(effective against Russian warships)Registered Userregular
To every person who chipped in a few dollars last month — thank you. Because of your support, we raised an astounding $383 million. I'm incredibly humbled.
There's still more work to be done, but I wanted to share the good news with Trimicka, one of our grassroots supporters.
383 million? Holy fuck.
This is awesome and I 100% support Biden, but why am I getting 383 million texts per hour suggesting the Democrat party's fundraising has been on the brink of disaster and failure unless I tip $25 immediately.
I thought...I thought my $25 was saving reality from collapsing in on itself. *sniffle*
Because supposedly their data says that people give more money in response to imminent doom than anything else.
Did someone say IMMINENT DOOM?!?!
Here's my wallet. Take it! TAKE IT!
*never expected the cinnamint boom milkshake would be such an unprecedented success... Amazingly generous tips too.*
To every person who chipped in a few dollars last month — thank you. Because of your support, we raised an astounding $383 million. I'm incredibly humbled.
There's still more work to be done, but I wanted to share the good news with Trimicka, one of our grassroots supporters.
383 million? Holy fuck.
This is awesome and I 100% support Biden, but why am I getting 383 million texts per hour suggesting the Democrat party's fundraising has been on the brink of disaster and failure unless I tip $25 immediately.
I thought...I thought my $25 was saving reality from collapsing in on itself. *sniffle*
Because supposedly their data says that people give more money in response to imminent doom than anything else.
And it makes sense. Also why they didn't reveal they had such success in September until the 2nd week of October. It is annoying but...
I mean, they're not wrong in that RBG's death was the "oh shit" moment that woke a lot of people up and got them to throw cash at the problem.
It would have been really nice if they'd figured that out back in 2016, when there was something we could do about it, but here we fucking are.
I loathe that the potential for a left-leaning SCOTUS and to allow RBG to retire instead of working herself into the grave was thrown away for stupid shortsighted bullshit reasons.
In related but modern news, Trump's "what have you got to lose" tactic was used last time around and it worked, so it makes perfect sense he's trying it again even though it won't work as well
+2
Options
ChanusHarbinger of the Spicy Rooster ApocalypseThe Flames of a Thousand Collapsed StarsRegistered Userregular
+1 Biden/Warner/Spanberger
there's a line at 4:15 on a Thursday
there's a lady with a Trump/Freitas table off to the side but nobody seems to be paying her much attention
I mean, they're not wrong in that RBG's death was the "oh shit" moment that woke a lot of people up and got them to throw cash at the problem.
It would have been really nice if they'd figured that out back in 2016, when there was something we could do about it, but here we fucking are.
I loathe that the potential for a left-leaning SCOTUS and to allow RBG to retire instead of working herself into the grave was thrown away for stupid shortsighted bullshit reasons.
In related but modern news, Trump's "what have you got to lose" tactic was used last time around and it worked, so it makes perfect sense he's trying it again even though it won't work as well
Wasn't "allow" anything. It was her call, she screwed up, the end.
+12
Options
ChanusHarbinger of the Spicy Rooster ApocalypseThe Flames of a Thousand Collapsed StarsRegistered Userregular
i am heartened by both there being a line and there being a line despite how quickly it's moving
During our contact tracing, we discovered around noon today that a member of the company that charters my airplane has also tested positive for COVID. This crew member was on the plane with me, but was more than 50 feet away.
My COVID test from last night came back negative.
Not only was the individual 50+ feet away and wearing a mask, but I was wearing an N-95 mask. No members of my staff were in contact with this crew member either. My doctors have advised that there is no need for me to quarantine.
Our campaign’s contact tracing remains ongoing, and my team will continue to share any significant developments with the American people. If anything, let this serve as an example of the importance of wearing masks and keeping a safe, social distance.
God what a difference between the campaigns. Like they identified someone else who had it, and can probably keep it from spreading further. Almost like contract tracing works or something.
I would like some money because these are artisanal nuggets of wisdom philistine.
To every person who chipped in a few dollars last month — thank you. Because of your support, we raised an astounding $383 million. I'm incredibly humbled.
There's still more work to be done, but I wanted to share the good news with Trimicka, one of our grassroots supporters.
383 million? Holy fuck.
This is awesome and I 100% support Biden, but why am I getting 383 million texts per hour suggesting the Democrat party's fundraising has been on the brink of disaster and failure unless I tip $25 immediately.
I thought...I thought my $25 was saving reality from collapsing in on itself. *sniffle*
Because supposedly their data says that people give more money in response to imminent doom than anything else.
It’s true people are disproportionally, irrationally, motivated by loss
I am almost certain that the Marshalls either wanted to kill the guy or didn’t care if they did, and almost certain that Barr made it a priority to have him arrested, but that is standard cop/top cop behavior. It doesn’t need to be a complex political hit for Trump to be happy the dude is dead, because he’s a ghoulish strong man who got told one of his enemies died
This contradicts nothing I said, because like... cops murder people without direct orders from the president, that's kind of a whole thing.
Way offtopic.
Is the president bragging about extra-judicial murders at a campaign rally inside of 3 weeks of the vote for his re-election within the perview of the thread?
I like how Trump can stop in NC, in my town, at the only airport which is losing its only national carrier because of the pandemic, during the week we're having our worst coronavirus numbers. It's like he brings misfortune with him.
I like how Trump can stop in NC, in my town, at the only airport which is losing its only national carrier because of the pandemic, during the week we're having our worst coronavirus numbers. It's like he brings misfortune with him.
That would be because he does bring misfortune with him.
Anecdotal, but it feels like COVID is getting worse; like Trump and co were being irresponsible for months and only just last month got hit by it, and I know Biden's team were taking precautions and now it's nipping at their heels as well.
Anecdotal, but it feels like COVID is getting worse; like Trump and co were being irresponsible for months and only just last month got hit by it, and I know Biden's team were taking precautions and now it's nipping at their heels as well.
A lot of the world is starting to see a second wave, and the weather is getting colder so people are more inside and stupidly states in the US are loosening covid regulations instead of locking them down so transmission will go up.
I would like some money because these are artisanal nuggets of wisdom philistine.
I voted today by the way. I used this abs and tee bailout package thing I got in my mail receptibox and went over to one of them newfangled election derp off boxers.
I wanted to vote on Monday, but this is what happened this week:
Monday - I get outside with no jacket or umbrella. It's raining cats and grits so I turn back and go back inside.
Tuesday - More rain
Wednesday - I twist my back so badly I was literally incapacitated for nearly 20 hours. I was stuck flat on my floor for most of that time
Thursday (today) - Thanks to an ancient healing art known as Ib Up Pro Fen I managed to get my body under control. I walked over and voted.
Friday (tomorrow) - I am not a psychic
I am almost certain that the Marshalls either wanted to kill the guy or didn’t care if they did, and almost certain that Barr made it a priority to have him arrested, but that is standard cop/top cop behavior. It doesn’t need to be a complex political hit for Trump to be happy the dude is dead, because he’s a ghoulish strong man who got told one of his enemies died
This contradicts nothing I said, because like... cops murder people without direct orders from the president, that's kind of a whole thing.
Way offtopic.
Is the president bragging about extra-judicial murders at a campaign rally inside of 3 weeks of the vote for his re-election within the perview of the thread?
Not really. Not every fool thing Trump says needs to generate an ongoing discussion in here. If you want to talk about Trump ordering extra-judicial assassinations via cop, there's a policing thread over that way. --->
I submitted an entry to Lego Ideas, and if 10,000 people support me, it'll be turned into an actual Lego set!If you'd like to see and support my submission, follow this link.
I like how Trump can stop in NC, in my town, at the only airport which is losing its only national carrier because of the pandemic, during the week we're having our worst coronavirus numbers. It's like he brings misfortune with him.
That would be because he does bring misfortune with him.
For previous examples see Atlantic City.
I think there’s a Trump casino in Vegas that’s about to go under too, btw
Well, folks, @KamalaHarris
and I watched some of President Trump’s remarks from the campaign trail — and it went just as you’d imagine. We wanted to take a moment to clear up some of the lies he’s been saying about us.
The newest youtube sensations, presidents to be react.
I would like some money because these are artisanal nuggets of wisdom philistine.
I don’t know how I feel about ragging on Trump because he shutdown the whole country, because he didn’t, the governors basically agreed to among themselves, and also because I think any reasonable person would agree that the hard shutdown period was at least a month or so too short.
Posts
Yes? That's my point.
I thought it was just white
25% of African Americans and 50% of Latinx?
There's delusion, and then there's whatever the fuck that is.
That's not an apples to apples comparison. The default senate model takes into account things like fundraising totals and how sites the race is listed by sites like Cook. Alabama's a state where the incumbent is behind and there's little polling, I think you're going to end up with a really conservative forecast. For example, Jones is going to have more of an opportunity for out-of-state funding than you'd expect of a Dem in a red state, and experts tend to be conservative when rating a losing incumbent (Cook will realistically only move him to likely R if they see effectively 0 chance of him winning). By comparison, if you look at the polls-only forecast, Jones has only a 6% chance of winning.
On the other hand, the worry about Trump is ratfucking, and that's not captured in 538's forecast. Pennsylvania gets brought up a lot as a state where the rules are going to strongly benefit Republicans, and a good chunk of (mostly Dem) mail in ballots will probably be thrown out. That'll make the difference in a close race. And Florida Dems get fucked over perennially. So let's say the race shifts just a couple points relative to 538's current prediction, and NC/ME2/GA flip back to Trump. That's not at all unreasonable. Now let's say PA and FL shift an extra couple points because the state GOP puts their fingers on the scale, and Trump wins those as well. At that point, Biden has 270 EVs--Trump winning any of AZ/WI/NE2 is enough to deny Biden a victory. Even a single faithless elector would be enough to deny Biden a victory (although this might not happen in light of Chiafalo v Washington, and since in
this case an elector can't take a "principled stand" without throwing the election to the House).
I'm not saying that I think that'll happen. If I bet today, I'd bet on a Biden victory. But it is a potential outcome that 538 doesn't (can't) take into account, so I think Trump's chances are higher than their numbers.
And it’s incredibly dangerous. If Biden pulls through in November, these are the ones who will say “he must have cheated”, because they won’t be able to accept that they were wrong. The Venn diagram of these folks and the people who will commit violence in the wake of a Democratic victory is pretty close to a circle.
That same margin also allows election fuckery in the several percent range. You can't meaningfully pull "Yes they did or no they didn't" because you don't know where the actual results fell in the MOE. And the evidence was destroyed.
Also there are other types of election fuckery that 100% happened. Removing people from the rolls in extremely dubious ways, and mostly in Dem areas. Voter ID, then closing down the places black people would get IDs. Long polling lines in Dem areas but NOT GOP areas, due to polling place cuts. Etc.
Over twenty witnesses say they heard no commands or identification, the police just opened fire.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/13/us/michael-reinoehl-antifa-portland-shooting.html
Yep. Even if the polls are pretty much spot on accurate, that'll be taken as proof that the votes were modified to reflect the polls. Polls underperformed, more proof that they're rigging the vote. Overperformed? Well, they had to make it close, you see, otherwise it wouldn't be believeable.
I have family in various parts of the US. I'm sincerely scared for them. Things are going to get bad, worse in the short term if Biden wins, worse in the long term if Trump does.
I won't feel comfortable about Any polls or what the news tells me on election day until biden is sworn in in January.
Lemme guess, all body/helmet cameras and audio of the "arrest" are somehow mysteriously missing?
Because fucked if I'm taking their word for it that they did it by the book.
But what will Fox News tell them to think? Maybe fox will calm them down. Honestly, they might. I think fox is happiest when they're complaining about a dem in charge.
OAN on the other hand will tell everyone to kidnap the nearest dem governor.
This is awesome and I 100% support Biden, but why am I getting 383 million texts per hour suggesting the Democrat party's fundraising has been on the brink of disaster and failure unless I tip $25 immediately.
I thought...I thought my $25 was saving reality from collapsing in on itself. *sniffle*
The officers involved have refused cameras because they don't want to be held accountable.
Because supposedly their data says that people give more money in response to imminent doom than anything else.
This contradicts nothing I said, because like... cops murder people without direct orders from the president, that's kind of a whole thing.
Did someone say IMMINENT DOOM?!?!
Here's my wallet. Take it! TAKE IT!
+2 for Biden in Pennsylvania.
It would have been really nice if they'd figured that out back in 2016, when there was something we could do about it, but here we fucking are.
(The time to buy a new fire engine is before the house catches fire, not while it's burning down.
Way offtopic.
*never expected the cinnamint boom milkshake would be such an unprecedented success... Amazingly generous tips too.*
And it makes sense. Also why they didn't reveal they had such success in September until the 2nd week of October. It is annoying but...
QEDMF xbl: PantsB G+
I loathe that the potential for a left-leaning SCOTUS and to allow RBG to retire instead of working herself into the grave was thrown away for stupid shortsighted bullshit reasons.
In related but modern news, Trump's "what have you got to lose" tactic was used last time around and it worked, so it makes perfect sense he's trying it again even though it won't work as well
there's a line at 4:15 on a Thursday
there's a lady with a Trump/Freitas table off to the side but nobody seems to be paying her much attention
Wasn't "allow" anything. It was her call, she screwed up, the end.
God what a difference between the campaigns. Like they identified someone else who had it, and can probably keep it from spreading further. Almost like contract tracing works or something.
pleasepaypreacher.net
It’s true people are disproportionally, irrationally, motivated by loss
Is the president bragging about extra-judicial murders at a campaign rally inside of 3 weeks of the vote for his re-election within the perview of the thread?
That would be because he does bring misfortune with him.
For previous examples see Atlantic City.
A lot of the world is starting to see a second wave, and the weather is getting colder so people are more inside and stupidly states in the US are loosening covid regulations instead of locking them down so transmission will go up.
pleasepaypreacher.net
I wanted to vote on Monday, but this is what happened this week:
Monday - I get outside with no jacket or umbrella. It's raining cats and grits so I turn back and go back inside.
Tuesday - More rain
Wednesday - I twist my back so badly I was literally incapacitated for nearly 20 hours. I was stuck flat on my floor for most of that time
Thursday (today) - Thanks to an ancient healing art known as Ib Up Pro Fen I managed to get my body under control. I walked over and voted.
Friday (tomorrow) - I am not a psychic
The difference between bidens team and trump's is staggering when it comes to covid. One side actuallyt sounds like a leader
Not really. Not every fool thing Trump says needs to generate an ongoing discussion in here. If you want to talk about Trump ordering extra-judicial assassinations via cop, there's a policing thread over that way. --->
I think there’s a Trump casino in Vegas that’s about to go under too, btw
The newest youtube sensations, presidents to be react.
pleasepaypreacher.net