The new forums will be named Coin Return (based on the most recent
vote)! You can check on the status and timeline of the transition to the new forums
here.
The Guiding Principles and New Rules
document is now in effect.
[2020 ELECTION] Trump Running Out Of Days To Finally Become President
Posts
Fauci polls higher than Biden. Maybe higher than Obama, for that matter.
I mean, yeah, but there are others who can be pried away with this where abortion isn't just a shibboleth. But then I'm catholic so social teachings and the death penalty make it easier to wedge into the issue.
I feel like for a lot of people, abortion is a stand-in for "teenagers having sex." The things that Dems do that make abortion go down are things like make birth control easier to obtain, and promote sex ed. So yes, there are fewer abortions, but there is much more SINNING and BAD BEHAVIOR.
I have no data backing this up though. Just my own thoughts on why this doesn't resonate.
There's even data to show there's less of that - that kids with good sex education lose their virginity later on average, average fewer lovers in their lifetime (and yet are more satisfied - sex isn't an eternal source of stressors like shame, lies, or pregnancy scares), and have lower rates of STDs and pregnancy.
It turns out that demystifying the sacred secrets of the marriage bed and making sex a matter of clinically biological responsibility you learn in the same class as flossing takes a lot of wind out of teenagers' horny sails and leads to wiser behavior all around.
Also less sexual abuse and assault, less divorce, less poor sex and relationship related decisions all around, because sex makes teenagers stupid and if they're at least smart about sex they can keep a few brain cells turned on when all the blood flow redirects.
I think this is much closer to the truth. There is some fraction of the conservative movement that is driven by genuine ethical concerns but the majority seem to be still living out some sort of 1980s suburban morality play (as can also be seen by Trump's own comments about the suburbs). Unlike the much healthier expression in teen gore flicks from the time period in question, conservatives in 2020 have found their avenger in the person of malformed brute, fueled by rage and unprocessed parental sentiment. This grotesque mockery of a human being then metaphorically sacrifices the denizens of Camp Crystal Lake in a futile effort to gain revenge for perceived past wrongs, only using Twitter and rallies instead if a machete or axe. Our task this year is simply to ensure that there isn't a sequel.
Also on Steam and PSN: twobadcats
Yeah, that's not good if true. Just one polling outfit though, so I'm trying not to read too much into it.
It's also about a bunch of minority stereotypes.
This reminds me of what Trump did in South Carolina's 1st district in 2019. Mark Sanford was a Republican Trump critic, so Trump did not endorse him in the primary, endorsed his opponent, and Sanford lost. Sanford's primary opponent was just an unhinged Trump supporter who made her whole campaign about Trump and basically nothing else. She lost, the district flipped blue.
Trump's list of enemies within his own party has grown longer and longer, and the pool of supporters qualified to run for office has gotten shallower, so his hand picked challenger candidates are these "They're running who?" people who's only qualifications are their loyalty to Trump.
Alabama is one of six states that has straight-ticket voting. I expect Tuberville to get more out of that than he loses from Trump voters
Or if you assume undecideds generally go with the rest of their demographic cohort it would be a source of routine undercount of the Democratic vote.
So hippos do this thing called "muck spreading" where they swing their tail quickly back and forth to shred their shit as it comes out of their ass and send it flying everywhere. All republicans are at least that shitty. In fact, I think it's time for the elephant to retire, and the muck-spreading hippo take it's rightful place as icon of the republican party.
I was giggling.
Meanwhile, Missouri won't let me vote early because I have no good reason besides the global pandemic. Also, my polling place is a church down the street. Fantastic.
Is that controlled for economic factors?
Since the high school graduation rate is ~88% it's basically universal for kids today. It's the decline in lead poisoning. Kids today are just inherently different from kids we grew up with, or who preceded us.
I'm very skeptical of this chart! Both the availability of abortion services and sexual health services are substantially under the control of states, not the president. And looking into it a little, that chart is based on CDC reporting data that doesn't represent a constant selection of areas over time, making straightforward comparisons impossible (e.g. California used to report, but stopped in 1998 and hasn't resumed since--the rate in that line isn't national and it isn't the same part of the nation year to year).
There is some argument that the most recent decline does represent better sexual health services rather than reduced access to abortion, namely, that births haven't gone up, which you might expect if it really were abortion deterrence--and there were no other relevant trends. This would make sense if we're seeing the ACA's effect in terms of expanded mandates for contraceptive and sexual health coverage and the Medicaid expansion in states that had it. But even this is an inference. And Clinton had a variety of pro-choice policies, e.g. ending the global gag rule, but I'm not sure which of those is supposed to plausibly account for a 1/3rd drop in abortion rates?
idk, I think that better access to health reduces abortions, but this chart is strikes me as very much a political graphic going viral on facebook
Meanwhile the GOP flogs things like abstinence only education which is actually worse than doing nothing.
I don't understand how that squares with the question. How are these comparisons being done? Is it not geographic? Cause if it's geographic the question is whether the results have been controlled for various factors (economic mostly obviously imo) that would also influence these numbers.
They haven't been controlled for anything. Those are based on numbers reported to CDC, which are derived from voluntary state reporting: most states report but it varies from year to year (so, for instance, in 2016 a combined 14% of the population's data was not reported, largely based on CA having consistently opted out). It's further inference what's driving the changes in the CDC data.
It visually tracks Guttmacher, so I'm not sure if there is any better data available.
The decline in the 90's is almost certainly due to Planned Parenthood v Casey rather than any particular Clinton policies, but not sure how you would tease that out. Regardless, it's more to illustrate a point that Republican President's and policies are not actually reducing the abortion rate, and if you already disagree with them about most other things but can't bring yourself to vote Biden/ Democrat solely because of abortion... maybe reconsider
Diplomatic pouches usually leave with three week layovers, it is too late to serve your ballots back this way. You will likely need to rely on international courier like DHL and others.
Check with VoteFromAbroad.org for better info. I think I recall seeing a DHL discount code at one point as well, but that was s month or so ago.
Democrats Abroad! || Vote From Abroad
This year he's saying there's basically a ten point shift against him in all of those district level polling from how he did in 2016. Which mirrors the national polling. There are two exceptions. He's doing better in heavily Hispanic districts (SW Texas, South Florida especially) and way, way worse in rich suburbs.
I guess that's good since I don't think Biden would win florida or texas anyway
Like.. it’s hard not to be angry at a group of voters being pulled towards someone who actively wants them purged
Texas cities have a lot of wealthy suburbs.
Seems to continue the trend of Biden's strength being a lot more among white voters, especially better educated and wealthier white voters.
but they're not densely populated
(assuming they're anything like maryland/virginia wealthy suburbs)
What a disgraceful post
and the gengars who are guiding me" -- W.S. Merwin
Those might be some of the most Latino districts in the country but they're also distinctly Cuban and long ago immigrated Mexican and the exact type of Latino that's open to brutalizing people at the border (keeping out the wrong latinos) or has been in the tank for the GOP since the Bay of Pigs.
These districts are very different from most of the Latino communities you see in places like Colorado or the Northeast. Well except for the Cubans, that's basically the same everywhere minus an ongoing generational split.
Come Overwatch with meeeee
Also, better access to healthcare makes pregnancy less scary and reduces the chances of complications.
That won't make us a blue state, we're still far more conservative than the country as a whole. But I believe if this is the wave election it's looking to be, we could flip.
Mine is in a church too, in the basement at least. Wouldn't really put it past at least o e to just kind of move the pews aside etc
You should definitely be ashamed of this post!