I think Gaetz is toast. This letter is not some investigation with the details kept secret. This is very public and, more importantly, very juicy for the 24 news cycle. It can still be fought against, but Gaetz doesn't have enough clout or power for the party to be worth it. The smart thing to do would be to resign.
Again his own party has done nothing to him, they will do nothing to him and the democrats can not touch him.
Law enforcement on the other hand is liable to drag him off to prison by his short hairs.
A sitting US congressman? Highly doubtful especially not with a democratic admin.
Dude appears to be guilty of multiple sex crimes involving barely legal teens, there is a witness testifying to it and providing evidence to corroborate and good odds that some of these girls will testify as well.
Cases have been won on far, far less.
IOKIYAR, Gaetz will do no time and remain in congress bank on it.
I would like some money because these are artisanal nuggets of wisdom philistine.
I think you guys are underestimating the value of a DINO-turned-republican, especially one who is leaving the door wide open for the GOP to retake at least one of the branches.
Oh they'd welcome him with open arms tomorrow.
And come November of his next election he'll be on neither parties ticket
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I think you guys are underestimating the value of a DINO-turned-republican, especially one who is leaving the door wide open for the GOP to retake at least one of the branches.
Oh they'd welcome him with open arms tomorrow.
And come November of his next election he'll be on neither parties ticket
I'm not talking about tomorrow. I'm talking about the next time he runs.
I think you guys are underestimating the value of a DINO-turned-republican, especially one who is leaving the door wide open for the GOP to retake at least one of the branches.
Oh they'd welcome him with open arms tomorrow.
And come November of his next election he'll be on neither parties ticket
I'm not talking about tomorrow. I'm talking about the next time he runs.
He will be primaried as everyone said. He is next up in 2024. The Republicans know if there is any other D on the ticket but him they can put a person as far right as they want that will cause them no trouble and win. Manchin wins in WV because of incumbency.
He loses that swapping parties. And he will lose the primary to an actual Republican.
I think Gaetz is toast. This letter is not some investigation with the details kept secret. This is very public and, more importantly, very juicy for the 24 news cycle. It can still be fought against, but Gaetz doesn't have enough clout or power for the party to be worth it. The smart thing to do would be to resign.
Again his own party has done nothing to him, they will do nothing to him and the democrats can not touch him.
Law enforcement on the other hand is liable to drag him off to prison by his short hairs.
A sitting US congressman? Highly doubtful especially not with a democratic admin.
Dude appears to be guilty of multiple sex crimes involving barely legal teens, there is a witness testifying to it and providing evidence to corroborate and good odds that some of these girls will testify as well.
Cases have been won on far, far less.
IOKIYAR, Gaetz will do no time and remain in congress bank on it.
The FBI isn't particularly well known for it's Theatre.
I get that your cynical and after the last decade I can absolutely understand why, but Gaetz is clearly guilty as sin and unlike stone he doesn't have trump (or apparently any republican allies) to bail him out.
Can someone please tell me what exactly is stopping Manchin from switching parties the next time he's up for re-election and running on everything he prevented the Democrats from doing?
Because Manchin's objections are not really ideological.
People wanna frame the problem as "Manchin is too conservative", when the reality seems more like "Manchin is too much of a classic 'bipartisanship is best, at any cost' senator". ie - he's an idiot
Asking why he's not switching parties is mistaking what is actually going on here.
Can someone please tell me what exactly is stopping Manchin from switching parties the next time he's up for re-election and running on everything he prevented the Democrats from doing?
Because Manchin's objections are not really ideological.
People wanna frame the problem as "Manchin is too conservative", when the reality seems more like "Manchin is too much of a classic 'bipartisanship is best, at any cost' senator". ie - he's an idiot
Asking why he's not switching parties is mistaking what is actually going on here.
Ostensibly, I agree with him; the senate should be able to find common ground for the passage of law.
But practically the last decade or so has proven that bipartisanship is dead as far as the republican party is concerned and if the Democrats are to serve their constituents they need to treat it as such until such time as the republicans can prove that they intend to act in good faith.
Can someone please tell me what exactly is stopping Manchin from switching parties the next time he's up for re-election and running on everything he prevented the Democrats from doing?
Because Manchin's objections are not really ideological.
People wanna frame the problem as "Manchin is too conservative", when the reality seems more like "Manchin is too much of a classic 'bipartisanship is best, at any cost' senator". ie - he's an idiot
Asking why he's not switching parties is mistaking what is actually going on here.
Ostensibly, I agree with him; the senate should be able to find common ground for the passage of law.
But practically the last decade or so has proven that bipartisanship is dead as far as the republican party is concerned and if the Democrats are to serve their constituents they need to treat it as such until such time as the republicans can prove that they intend to act in good faith.
Manchin's problem is that he doesn't understand that it takes two to tango.
My summary of the whole idea is basically that Joe Manchin is a guy who really believes that good politics is a big deal where everyone signs on and you get a big signing ceremony with everyone standing around smiling. And probably very little actually gets done, but that part isn't important.
The problems are, of course, that the US congress does not work that way. The incentive structures do not exist for this and Republican strategy is the exact opposite. Republicans don't want to cut a deal with Manchin and give him some nice press, they want to take his seat. There are no deals to be made on anything important.
And the bigger problem, for everyone as a whole, is that this means he will likely continue to oppose most things the Democrats want to get done or the structural reforms that would let them happen.
Manchin's biggest objections are not ideological in the sense that he thinks the legislation is too liberal, it's ideological in the sense that he believes in the (stupid) senate dream of the Big Deal. Which is actually worse because policy demands can be accommodated. Nonsensical procedural demands cannot.
Didn't Gaetz already say he was gonna retire and be a dignity ghoul on OAN? Or did he recant that as well?
Supposedly his goal was to do the talk show circuit, though I'm not sure even OANN would want to be associated with him at this point.
Jobs as conservative talking heads are easy enough to get for white guys that there was one laying around for Tucker Carlson to pick up randomly (this is literally how he got into it)
At least paying children to fuck them still seems to be disqualifying, though
Didn't Gaetz already say he was gonna retire and be a dignity ghoul on OAN? Or did he recant that as well?
Supposedly his goal was to do the talk show circuit, though I'm not sure even OANN would want to be associated with him at this point.
Jobs as conservative talking heads are easy enough to get for white guys that there was one laying around for Tucker Carlson to pick up randomly (this is literally how he got into it)
At least paying children to fuck them still seems to be disqualifying, though
With this Gop? Are you joking? Look at who leads them, shit I guess the problem is he paid them instead of just raped them like their hero.
I would like some money because these are artisanal nuggets of wisdom philistine.
Yeah it’s weird how Sinema went all diva on everyone
I think she's trying to do the Manchin thing of playing maverick moderate to win as a Democrat in a red state. But Arizona is much less red than West Virginia.
I don't have much faith that Murkowski will start being a tiny bit less awful, but with Alaska rolling with a ranked voting setup. She might have some incentive to do so given the states demographics. At this point, she needs to get 50% + 1 of the vote to win. Throw in the fact that the party is going full Trump and Trump doesn't like her for not being a ghoul that stays in lockstep with his whims. Hell, he probably doesn't like her also for being a woman that has political power. She probably is hurting on getting the Trumper vote and some of the more fuck awful votes and someone that Trump fancies more is likely to run against her. Her best bet is probably to start being less awful because she needs to get enough of the vote to be the one up against the the Trumper candidate.
In order to do that she is going to have to peel off moderates that democrats usually get and pick up moderates that usually either stay home or vote for someone with no chance at all. She'd also have to do well enough to convince strategic voters on the left, that as fuck awful as she is, she is better than the the hard right's preferred candidate and actually has a shot at winning compared to the leftist candidates. Pretty much she is toast if she ends up being in third place after the first round of votes. I kind of suspect if she keeps with her current record, in that scenario, if there is someone in forth, she probably doesn't pick up their votes and those either go to the Trump candidate or the democratic candidate.
Anyways, yeah, Manchin is going to get really fucking annoying before this congressional term is up. I hope this time people focus on the seats that democrats can realistically win 2022. The map isn't fuck awful for democrats and depending on how things go, this could be a midterm year where the party in the WH does better. They just need to make sure they get shit done despite Republican obstruction and Manchin's nonsense, while also convincing enough voters that republicans should not have power period. If they can get probably 52 seats or more, then neither Manchin or Sinema matter. Granted this assumes they don't pick up other obnoxious blue dogs, which I'll admit would still be an improvement if it's coming at the expense of the GOP.
Also they really need to hammer the GOP on the whole Gaetz nonsense. Point out how unamerican it is because what the GOP is advocating is essentially an aristocracy where the privileged elites get to do what they want. If the founding fathers had intended that they wouldn't have gone to any effort to try and kill the concept of an aristocracy appearing the US and they would not have been any near as vocal with their disdain for such a system. I give shit to originalist idiots because they can't infer to what the founders meant when stuff is vague. "Fuck the aristocracy!" is an area where the founders were clear enough, that even over two centuries later, no one can be mistaken about their intent. We shouldn't have one and we should destroy any political parties that try to create one.
Manchin seems to be the guy who goes into Prisoners Dilemma saying loudly, "I will never betray, I'm a man of my word." and... he actually seems to stick to that?
And good for him, I guess? but it really sucks for literally everyone else. because while it's a principled stance, it's an utterly stupid one in the present context.
Dems vote for the Dem first, the Murkowski second because better her than the far right candidate.
Moderate republicans (few and far between) vote for Murkowski first and then the far right candidate second because any R is better than D.
The rest of the Republicans vote for the far right candidate first, then Murkowski second because she's better than a Dem candidate.
Dem candidate gets eliminated, and Murkowski gets most of those votes, so her 'bloc' will be Moderates and Dems who'd rather have her than any other Pub candidate.
Best part is they can't even primary her now because party primaries are gone. (Aside for President). She can run as a Republican all she wants.
Didn't Gaetz already say he was gonna retire and be a dignity ghoul on OAN? Or did he recant that as well?
I think he was basically cold calling conservative news networks trying to line up work, IMO so he could skate out of Congress before the sex scandal caught up with him. But it sounded like no one was interested in him. And I'd guess he got no takers because he probably wanted a buttload of money.
Dems vote for the Dem first, the Murkowski second because better her than the far right candidate.
Moderate republicans (few and far between) vote for Murkowski first and then the far right candidate second because any R is better than D.
The rest of the Republicans vote for the far right candidate first, then Murkowski second because she's better than a Dem candidate.
Dem candidate gets eliminated, and Murkowski gets most of those votes, so her 'bloc' will be Moderates and Dems who'd rather have her than any other Pub candidate.
Best part is they can't even primary her now because party primaries are gone. (Aside for President). She can run as a Republican all she wants.
In your scenario Murkowski is eliminated first and the extreme pub wins.
Dems vote for the Dem first, the Murkowski second because better her than the far right candidate.
Moderate republicans (few and far between) vote for Murkowski first and then the far right candidate second because any R is better than D.
The rest of the Republicans vote for the far right candidate first, then Murkowski second because she's better than a Dem candidate.
Dem candidate gets eliminated, and Murkowski gets most of those votes, so her 'bloc' will be Moderates and Dems who'd rather have her than any other Pub candidate.
Best part is they can't even primary her now because party primaries are gone. (Aside for President). She can run as a Republican all she wants.
In your scenario Murkowski is eliminated first and the extreme pub wins.
I'd say currently Murkowski is toast because the far right doesn't like her for various reasons and she has given the left very little reason to convince them that she is somehow better than any other republican. If she place third she is out because I'd wager the bulk of the votes in 4th and lower likely don't go to her.
So she does have some incentive to stop being so shit because at some point before next year's election. She has to put herself in a spot where she can get 50% +1 of the vote in some round of the election. Her best best is going to be peeling off moderates from the democrats and convincing strategic voters on the left that their best option is making sure she doesn't get eliminated (rank voting doesn't make strategic voting go away, in some ways it can just make it weirder).
One thing she has in her favor is that things are close enough that someone bucking the party could be better than Trump's preferred choice. The other thing she has going for her, is that she voted against killing ACA. If not for those two things, she really would be toast regardless of what she does. If things weren't close, there would be very little incentive for anyone to her left to not take a gamble on trying to get a better candidate in.
My summary of the whole idea is basically that Joe Manchin is a guy who really believes that good politics is a big deal where everyone signs on and you get a big signing ceremony with everyone standing around smiling. And probably very little actually gets done, but that part isn't important.
The problems are, of course, that the US congress does not work that way. The incentive structures do not exist for this and Republican strategy is the exact opposite. Republicans don't want to cut a deal with Manchin and give him some nice press, they want to take his seat. There are no deals to be made on anything important.
And the bigger problem, for everyone as a whole, is that this means he will likely continue to oppose most things the Democrats want to get done or the structural reforms that would let them happen.
Manchin's biggest objections are not ideological in the sense that he thinks the legislation is too liberal, it's ideological in the sense that he believes in the (stupid) senate dream of the Big Deal. Which is actually worse because policy demands can be accommodated. Nonsensical procedural demands cannot.
Beyond that, theres also the issue that the US can't afford to be paralyzed at the legislative level while you search for some wonderful bipartisan ideal.
Didn't Gaetz already say he was gonna retire and be a dignity ghoul on OAN? Or did he recant that as well?
I think he was basically cold calling conservative news networks trying to line up work, IMO so he could skate out of Congress before the sex scandal caught up with him. But it sounded like no one was interested in him. And I'd guess he got no takers because he probably wanted a buttload of money.
The Senate on Thursday overwhelmingly approved a $35 billion measure to clean up the nation’s water systems, offering a brief moment of bipartisan cooperation amid deep divisions between the two parties over President Biden’s much larger ambitions for a multi-trillion dollar infrastructure package.
Republicans and Democrats alike hailed passage of the bill on an 89-to-2 vote as evidence that bipartisan compromise is possible on infrastructure initiatives, but lawmakers in both parties suggested that the spirit of deal-making could be fleeting.
So that's great. I'm hoping the House just flat passes it and takes the win. I'd like to be less reliant on the water filter we bought for the kitchen sink.
That's a fairly low bar though, I think it's just a reauthorization of the clean/drinking water revolving funds that have been annually funded for decades.
That's a fairly low bar though, I think it's just a reauthorization of the clean/drinking water revolving funds that have been annually funded for decades.
Sure, but it nearly doubles their funding. CWSRF gave out ~$1.6bn this last year and DWSRF has been less than a $billion annually. What just left the Senate is ~$15bn for each over the next 5 years.
The Senate on Thursday overwhelmingly approved a $35 billion measure to clean up the nation’s water systems, offering a brief moment of bipartisan cooperation amid deep divisions between the two parties over President Biden’s much larger ambitions for a multi-trillion dollar infrastructure package.
Republicans and Democrats alike hailed passage of the bill on an 89-to-2 vote as evidence that bipartisan compromise is possible on infrastructure initiatives, but lawmakers in both parties suggested that the spirit of deal-making could be fleeting.
So that's great. I'm hoping the House just flat passes it and takes the win. I'd like to be less reliant on the water filter we bought for the kitchen sink.
And of course one of the no votes was Ted Cruz (Other was a Utah senator). Dude just can't help being terrible.
Moderate Republicans aren't that rare in Alaska, or Murkowski wouldn't have won her write-in bid in 2010, and there wouldn't have been a coalition of Democrats and a handful of Republicans holding a majority in the House since 2017.
ChaosHatHop, hop, hop, HA!Trick of the lightRegistered Userregular
edited May 2021
Joe Manchin wouldn't switch for his next run for office, what is the benefit of that? Why would the Republicans repay him for something he MIGHT win in the future, and are they going to throw money to help his candidacy from the Senate Republican campaign fund when they could just throw that at some raging unhinged person who will probably be more loyal to them?
If Manchin was going to switch parties, NOW is the time to do that. This would instantly swing a lot of power in the senate instead of maybe swinging it if he happens to win and for that then the big name Republicans would promise to help him fund raise and clear the field.
Also Arlen Specter happened not that long ago. The track record is not so favorable for high profile party switchers.
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ChanusHarbinger of the Spicy Rooster ApocalypseThe Flames of a Thousand Collapsed StarsRegistered Userregular
Joe Manchin wouldn't switch for his next run for office, what is the benefit of that? Why would the Republicans repay him for something he MIGHT win in the future, and are they going to throw money to help his candidacy from the Senate Republican campaign fund when they could just throw that at some raging unhinged person who will probably be more loyal to them?
If Manchin was going to switch parties, NOW is the time to do that. This would instantly swing a lot of power in the senate instead of maybe swinging it if he happens to win and for that then the big name Republicans would promise to help him fund raise and clear the field.
Joe Manchin isn't principled, he just enjoys the power
if he switches he's just some Republican no one cares about
right now he's the guy with all the cards
he's just an asshole but unfortunately it's better if he's our asshole
The Senate on Thursday overwhelmingly approved a $35 billion measure to clean up the nation’s water systems, offering a brief moment of bipartisan cooperation amid deep divisions between the two parties over President Biden’s much larger ambitions for a multi-trillion dollar infrastructure package.
Republicans and Democrats alike hailed passage of the bill on an 89-to-2 vote as evidence that bipartisan compromise is possible on infrastructure initiatives, but lawmakers in both parties suggested that the spirit of deal-making could be fleeting.
So that's great. I'm hoping the House just flat passes it and takes the win. I'd like to be less reliant on the water filter we bought for the kitchen sink.
And of course one of the no votes was Ted Cruz (Other was a Utah senator). Dude just can't help being terrible.
Mike Lee?
Also it isn't that Ted can't help it, it's that he's realized the only way to stay popular* and in the news is to lean into how much everyone can't stand him. He's learning a lot from Taylor-Greene me thinks.
*Popular being loosely applied here to mean people are talking about him.
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ChaosHatHop, hop, hop, HA!Trick of the lightRegistered Userregular
Joe Manchin wouldn't switch for his next run for office, what is the benefit of that? Why would the Republicans repay him for something he MIGHT win in the future, and are they going to throw money to help his candidacy from the Senate Republican campaign fund when they could just throw that at some raging unhinged person who will probably be more loyal to them?
If Manchin was going to switch parties, NOW is the time to do that. This would instantly swing a lot of power in the senate instead of maybe swinging it if he happens to win and for that then the big name Republicans would promise to help him fund raise and clear the field.
Joe Manchin isn't principled, he just enjoys the power
if he switches he's just some Republican no one cares about
right now he's the guy with all the cards
he's just an asshole but unfortunately it's better if he's our asshole
I mean the 50th (in a tied senate) or 51st vote is the exact same amount of power. If anything it's easier for him to be the 51st republican because McConnell will be the obstructor, not him, he could hide behind it.
My point was that regardless of the motives of his behavior, him switching parties is not something he's interested or pursuing. The value of him switching parties decreases with every single day. He's not up for another four years. What happens if the Republicans take the Senate next year? Whoops, there goes all of his leverage. If he was gonna do it he'd have done it.
The Senate on Thursday overwhelmingly approved a $35 billion measure to clean up the nation’s water systems, offering a brief moment of bipartisan cooperation amid deep divisions between the two parties over President Biden’s much larger ambitions for a multi-trillion dollar infrastructure package.
Republicans and Democrats alike hailed passage of the bill on an 89-to-2 vote as evidence that bipartisan compromise is possible on infrastructure initiatives, but lawmakers in both parties suggested that the spirit of deal-making could be fleeting.
So that's great. I'm hoping the House just flat passes it and takes the win. I'd like to be less reliant on the water filter we bought for the kitchen sink.
And of course one of the no votes was Ted Cruz (Other was a Utah senator). Dude just can't help being terrible.
Mike Lee?
Also it isn't that Ted can't help it, it's that he's realized the only way to stay popular* and in the news is to lean into how much everyone can't stand him. He's learning a lot from Taylor-Greene me thinks.
*Popular being loosely applied here to mean people are talking about him.
In-famous? He's more than famous to become in-famous? Wow!
The Senate on Thursday overwhelmingly approved a $35 billion measure to clean up the nation’s water systems, offering a brief moment of bipartisan cooperation amid deep divisions between the two parties over President Biden’s much larger ambitions for a multi-trillion dollar infrastructure package.
Republicans and Democrats alike hailed passage of the bill on an 89-to-2 vote as evidence that bipartisan compromise is possible on infrastructure initiatives, but lawmakers in both parties suggested that the spirit of deal-making could be fleeting.
So that's great. I'm hoping the House just flat passes it and takes the win. I'd like to be less reliant on the water filter we bought for the kitchen sink.
And of course one of the no votes was Ted Cruz (Other was a Utah senator). Dude just can't help being terrible.
Mike Lee?
Also it isn't that Ted can't help it, it's that he's realized the only way to stay popular* and in the news is to lean into how much everyone can't stand him. He's learning a lot from Taylor-Greene me thinks.
*Popular being loosely applied here to mean people are talking about him.
Also, it gets to "own the libs". Because he's making news about he's pissing on a Democratic prioritized bill, but he's not actually preventing it from happening.
So he's grandstanding, and putting his name out there. And given how often shit like early presidential runs come down to name recognition as much as anything else, it's probably a politically savvy move on his behalf.
If he was in a position to actually affect the passage of the bill, he might piss off people for whom it'd affect (though maybe not, the amount of people that'd take not having clean drinking water if it meant some libs also didn't, is ridiculous). But as it stands, Republicans don't hold their own accountable for that kind of performative shit.
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IOKIYAR, Gaetz will do no time and remain in congress bank on it.
pleasepaypreacher.net
Oh they'd welcome him with open arms tomorrow.
And come November of his next election he'll be on neither parties ticket
Come Overwatch with meeeee
I'm not talking about tomorrow. I'm talking about the next time he runs.
He will be primaried as everyone said. He is next up in 2024. The Republicans know if there is any other D on the ticket but him they can put a person as far right as they want that will cause them no trouble and win. Manchin wins in WV because of incumbency.
He loses that swapping parties. And he will lose the primary to an actual Republican.
The FBI isn't particularly well known for it's Theatre.
I get that your cynical and after the last decade I can absolutely understand why, but Gaetz is clearly guilty as sin and unlike stone he doesn't have trump (or apparently any republican allies) to bail him out.
Because Manchin's objections are not really ideological.
People wanna frame the problem as "Manchin is too conservative", when the reality seems more like "Manchin is too much of a classic 'bipartisanship is best, at any cost' senator". ie - he's an idiot
Asking why he's not switching parties is mistaking what is actually going on here.
That describes basically any elected official with R next to their name.
Not the RINOS!
Ostensibly, I agree with him; the senate should be able to find common ground for the passage of law.
But practically the last decade or so has proven that bipartisanship is dead as far as the republican party is concerned and if the Democrats are to serve their constituents they need to treat it as such until such time as the republicans can prove that they intend to act in good faith.
His resignation would be a good bargaining chip for a plea deal, so I'm sure he's walked back any of that he might have floated.
Manchin's problem is that he doesn't understand that it takes two to tango.
We have got some work to do
https://www.vox.com/22339531/manchin-filibuster-bipartisanship-senate-west-virginia
Their podcast The Weeds did an accompanying episode on it if you'd rather listen then read.
The overall assessment is, uh, it's not good.
My summary of the whole idea is basically that Joe Manchin is a guy who really believes that good politics is a big deal where everyone signs on and you get a big signing ceremony with everyone standing around smiling. And probably very little actually gets done, but that part isn't important.
The problems are, of course, that the US congress does not work that way. The incentive structures do not exist for this and Republican strategy is the exact opposite. Republicans don't want to cut a deal with Manchin and give him some nice press, they want to take his seat. There are no deals to be made on anything important.
And the bigger problem, for everyone as a whole, is that this means he will likely continue to oppose most things the Democrats want to get done or the structural reforms that would let them happen.
Manchin's biggest objections are not ideological in the sense that he thinks the legislation is too liberal, it's ideological in the sense that he believes in the (stupid) senate dream of the Big Deal. Which is actually worse because policy demands can be accommodated. Nonsensical procedural demands cannot.
Supposedly his goal was to do the talk show circuit, though I'm not sure even OANN would want to be associated with him at this point.
Jobs as conservative talking heads are easy enough to get for white guys that there was one laying around for Tucker Carlson to pick up randomly (this is literally how he got into it)
At least paying children to fuck them still seems to be disqualifying, though
The problem is that Manchin is not the only one. He's just the most visible.
With this Gop? Are you joking? Look at who leads them, shit I guess the problem is he paid them instead of just raped them like their hero.
pleasepaypreacher.net
I think she's trying to do the Manchin thing of playing maverick moderate to win as a Democrat in a red state. But Arizona is much less red than West Virginia.
In order to do that she is going to have to peel off moderates that democrats usually get and pick up moderates that usually either stay home or vote for someone with no chance at all. She'd also have to do well enough to convince strategic voters on the left, that as fuck awful as she is, she is better than the the hard right's preferred candidate and actually has a shot at winning compared to the leftist candidates. Pretty much she is toast if she ends up being in third place after the first round of votes. I kind of suspect if she keeps with her current record, in that scenario, if there is someone in forth, she probably doesn't pick up their votes and those either go to the Trump candidate or the democratic candidate.
Anyways, yeah, Manchin is going to get really fucking annoying before this congressional term is up. I hope this time people focus on the seats that democrats can realistically win 2022. The map isn't fuck awful for democrats and depending on how things go, this could be a midterm year where the party in the WH does better. They just need to make sure they get shit done despite Republican obstruction and Manchin's nonsense, while also convincing enough voters that republicans should not have power period. If they can get probably 52 seats or more, then neither Manchin or Sinema matter. Granted this assumes they don't pick up other obnoxious blue dogs, which I'll admit would still be an improvement if it's coming at the expense of the GOP.
Also they really need to hammer the GOP on the whole Gaetz nonsense. Point out how unamerican it is because what the GOP is advocating is essentially an aristocracy where the privileged elites get to do what they want. If the founding fathers had intended that they wouldn't have gone to any effort to try and kill the concept of an aristocracy appearing the US and they would not have been any near as vocal with their disdain for such a system. I give shit to originalist idiots because they can't infer to what the founders meant when stuff is vague. "Fuck the aristocracy!" is an area where the founders were clear enough, that even over two centuries later, no one can be mistaken about their intent. We shouldn't have one and we should destroy any political parties that try to create one.
battletag: Millin#1360
Nice chart to figure out how honest a news source is.
And good for him, I guess? but it really sucks for literally everyone else. because while it's a principled stance, it's an utterly stupid one in the present context.
What's more likely to happen.
Dems vote for the Dem first, the Murkowski second because better her than the far right candidate.
Moderate republicans (few and far between) vote for Murkowski first and then the far right candidate second because any R is better than D.
The rest of the Republicans vote for the far right candidate first, then Murkowski second because she's better than a Dem candidate.
Dem candidate gets eliminated, and Murkowski gets most of those votes, so her 'bloc' will be Moderates and Dems who'd rather have her than any other Pub candidate.
Best part is they can't even primary her now because party primaries are gone. (Aside for President). She can run as a Republican all she wants.
I think he was basically cold calling conservative news networks trying to line up work, IMO so he could skate out of Congress before the sex scandal caught up with him. But it sounded like no one was interested in him. And I'd guess he got no takers because he probably wanted a buttload of money.
In your scenario Murkowski is eliminated first and the extreme pub wins.
Oh yeah, I guess you're right.
So she does have some incentive to stop being so shit because at some point before next year's election. She has to put herself in a spot where she can get 50% +1 of the vote in some round of the election. Her best best is going to be peeling off moderates from the democrats and convincing strategic voters on the left that their best option is making sure she doesn't get eliminated (rank voting doesn't make strategic voting go away, in some ways it can just make it weirder).
One thing she has in her favor is that things are close enough that someone bucking the party could be better than Trump's preferred choice. The other thing she has going for her, is that she voted against killing ACA. If not for those two things, she really would be toast regardless of what she does. If things weren't close, there would be very little incentive for anyone to her left to not take a gamble on trying to get a better candidate in.
battletag: Millin#1360
Nice chart to figure out how honest a news source is.
Beyond that, theres also the issue that the US can't afford to be paralyzed at the legislative level while you search for some wonderful bipartisan ideal.
Also he's dumb as a post.
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/04/29/us/joe-biden-news/senate-water-bill
So that's great. I'm hoping the House just flat passes it and takes the win. I'd like to be less reliant on the water filter we bought for the kitchen sink.
Sure, but it nearly doubles their funding. CWSRF gave out ~$1.6bn this last year and DWSRF has been less than a $billion annually. What just left the Senate is ~$15bn for each over the next 5 years.
And of course one of the no votes was Ted Cruz (Other was a Utah senator). Dude just can't help being terrible.
If Manchin was going to switch parties, NOW is the time to do that. This would instantly swing a lot of power in the senate instead of maybe swinging it if he happens to win and for that then the big name Republicans would promise to help him fund raise and clear the field.
Also Arlen Specter happened not that long ago. The track record is not so favorable for high profile party switchers.
Joe Manchin isn't principled, he just enjoys the power
if he switches he's just some Republican no one cares about
right now he's the guy with all the cards
he's just an asshole but unfortunately it's better if he's our asshole
Mike Lee?
Also it isn't that Ted can't help it, it's that he's realized the only way to stay popular* and in the news is to lean into how much everyone can't stand him. He's learning a lot from Taylor-Greene me thinks.
*Popular being loosely applied here to mean people are talking about him.
I mean the 50th (in a tied senate) or 51st vote is the exact same amount of power. If anything it's easier for him to be the 51st republican because McConnell will be the obstructor, not him, he could hide behind it.
My point was that regardless of the motives of his behavior, him switching parties is not something he's interested or pursuing. The value of him switching parties decreases with every single day. He's not up for another four years. What happens if the Republicans take the Senate next year? Whoops, there goes all of his leverage. If he was gonna do it he'd have done it.
In-famous? He's more than famous to become in-famous? Wow!
Also, it gets to "own the libs". Because he's making news about he's pissing on a Democratic prioritized bill, but he's not actually preventing it from happening.
So he's grandstanding, and putting his name out there. And given how often shit like early presidential runs come down to name recognition as much as anything else, it's probably a politically savvy move on his behalf.
If he was in a position to actually affect the passage of the bill, he might piss off people for whom it'd affect (though maybe not, the amount of people that'd take not having clean drinking water if it meant some libs also didn't, is ridiculous). But as it stands, Republicans don't hold their own accountable for that kind of performative shit.