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[Formula One & motorsport] Round 7, Monaco: Merc develops odd growths, Russell perplexed
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I hope the Pirellis can handle it - I assume (though we know what that does) this has been looked at very carefully.
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If anything they seem to have gone too hard - there was almost no deg at all and a one stop soft to medium is expected for all cars
Perez has ruined his hard tyres and had to pit to replace tyres already.
Some really questionable defensive moves by mazepin against Schumacher.
Voted for Checo driver of the day. Starting pit lane and ending 8 was pretty awesome
Checo had a nice recovery drive. Too bad it had to be that way, but the good news is that he got the Engine penalty out of the way already for Monza, so that's good.
I'm not a Max fan, and I'm still on pins and needles for Lewis' 100th win, but it was cool to see him get his home win after SIlverstone.
I didn't really find the race that interesting. It seemed clear from early on that passing was going to be next to impossible without significant pace advantage so even close gaps didn’t really matter, which robbed the race of any real tension. It looked like a great track to drive and to watch a car go around, but a bad one for F1 racing. Most telling was just how much traffic affected the gaps between cars - for example Hamilton lost 2-2.5s to Verstappen in the space of about a lap and a half, then Bottas held up Verstappen and the gap closed right back up again.
The race win was never really in doubt. The only way anyone was getting past was through pit strategy and the front two just mirrored each other. Even then, Verstappen had pace in hand if he needed it.
With Bottas generally, his lack of pace was clear pretty quickly in the race. After a handful of laps he was already detached from the leaders, and nearly dropped out of the pit window for the second round of stops. He largely played the team game when asked but just wasn't quick enough to be a serious threat.
Things at Haas continuing to deteriorate with Mazepin pushing Schumacher nearly into the wall/pit entry. Horrible move and could have ended badly - arguably it did end badly as Schumacher's front wing was broken as a result. The two are reportedly not on speaking terms and I can only see it getting worse. The root of the problem is likely that Schumacher is hammering Mazepin week in, week out. The record (in races and quali) is something like 11-2 in Schumacher's favour and it isn't really a contest on pace. Mazepin doesn't seem to be handling that well, and seemed to be acting on a grudge from a percieved slight yesterday. Mazepin hasn't shown anything to suggest he's F1 calibre and I highly doubt that will change.
Who could have seen that coming???
It will be interesting to see how Bottas does in a different car really. I was trying to decide how I'd rate Bottas as a driver in the build up to the announcement and it was slightly trickier than I thought. Looking at this year's results for example, on the surface he hasn't actually been too bad for a #2 driver. He has more podiums than anyone outside of Hamilton and Verstappen and he's beating Perez in the standings. What more do you need really? The problem is that when you look into the specifics, all of that starts to fall apart and look much less impressive. For example, his best result this season is second, which he has achieved once (in Austria, when Hamilton's car was broken). His third place finishes have by and large been a distant third with no real threat to the top two. Then there are the disasters. Imola and Hungary show that he just can't handle wet conditions, and in Baku he was just miles off the pace. I'd also add France as a notable disaster, even though he finished fourth, because a mistake from Bottas kicked off the chain of events that led to compromised strategy and losing the race. He wasn't even any good for holding Verstappen up when half a lap could have made all the difference.
The pattern doesn't really improve when you look back at last year. I consider the W11 an all time great car (given what Hamilton was doing with it), but Bottas only just held onto second. The second half of the season was a chain of poor races from Bottas, but three of them really stand out:
Monza - A race Hamilton would have won easily but for the pit lane closure and penalty. Bottas on the other hand was deep in the midfield (finishing P5). Hamilton dropped to the back and still managed to finish P7.
Turkey - One of the worst wet races I've seen from a driver. Yes, his car had steering issues, but those were also self-inflicted from contact.
Sakhir - The race that made the change inevitible. Russell came in at short notice, beat Bottas off the line and looked like he was going to comfortably win it. After the first pit stop screw up, Russell still looked like he could win it as he rapidly caught and passed the cars in front (which Bottas had proven unable to do in Monza).
Going even further back you get to 2018, where he finished 5th overall in the WDC. More than that, he was being easily passed by the competition at the end of the season with a string of 5th place finishes. If Danny Ric didn't have terrible reliability that year, Bottas could have ended up 6th overall in a WDC/WCC winning car. Ultimately I think he has been fortunate in that the nearest rival has always had a weaker driver in the second seat (Raikonnen in Ferrari, Albon/Perez in Red Bull, 2019 is a bit of an exeption) but the flip side to that is that Bottas has always been fast enough to be a good #2.
Obviously some of this comparison is a bit harsh. After all, his results are being directly compared to Hamilton who is an all-time great. Very few drivers would come out of that well. In ideal conditions he can be pretty quick, but the questions were always 'in a tight competition, could he be relied upon?' and 'in the absence of Hamilton, could he lead a WDC challenge?'. The answer to the second question was ultimately 'no', which is why Merc had to move to get Russell in.
For my own end, my notes from pervious races often include a note that Bottas was 'disappointing'. I'd be tempted to say that circumstances and the car flattered him somewhat but his overall record isn't a bad one. Quick when conditions were perfect, but with too many flaws (tyre management, inability to overtake, wet driving) to be a top contender.
I'd say that my biggest question with him, in the end, is if they car really did flatter him that much.
It is generally agreed that the RB car #2 is "cursed" because to get the most of that car you need to drive it in a setup that requires cat reflexes (like Max.) Basically it's either adapt or die in that seat.
My question is if that's not a similar thing with the Merc really not fitting Bottas and him barely edging out some performance here and there.
Russell figured out the #2 Merc in a short time for Sakhir.
And it could very well be that the Merc setup suits him. Or that the car/track combination was good for him.
The thing is that I don't think that Bottas had much development say in the car side of things. The last one to probably have the same pull as Hamilton was Rossberg and only on the grounds of having been longer at the team.
Or it could be none of those, but I guess we'll see next year.
Alfa was pretty much his only option, but I really doubt we can make any sort of judgement on his ability as a driver next year.
driving the fuck out of it and getting as much return out of it as anyone could possibly expect, which honestly might be good for him
In somre respects, Bottas is lucky to have had such a long Mercedes career. He got the job due to Rosberg's sudden retirement, but that came late enough that options for a replacement were limited - Alonso, Vettel, Verstappen and Ricciardo were all under contract, likewise Hulkenberg. Ocon or Wehrlein were considered the most likey at first, and to make it work Massa had to un-retire. Even then it was a one year deal as Mercedes supposedly had a pre-contract signed with Vettel for 2018 (which Vettel later declined to take up). I don't know how he managed to survive the relatively weak performance in 2018, and being fair 2019 was probably his best season with Merc. Still, it was clear last year that Merc needed to move on and if all had gone to plan Russell would have been in the Merc this year already.
Everything I've heard about the Merc is that it's one of the easiest to drive championship winning formula 1 cars there has ever been. It does exactly what you want it to do, when you want to do it, as long as you stay within it's upper and lower limits. It's a large part of why it's been so dominant for so long. The car just takes incredibly precise timing and movement (and the willingness to drive beyond any sane level) to make it shine, which is where Hamilton shines.
This gave me the feels
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I'm going to go and make another cuppa just so I can do a proper spit-take.
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It also marks the first time the modern Mercedes team have sacked a driver. Schumacher and Rosberg both retired.
It really is a classy way to handle things and says a lot about Mercedes as an organization.
Also buried in the news was that Alpha Tauri have confirmed Gasly and Tsunoda for next year. It's not surprising news, but I also wouldn't have been surprised if it had went the other way on Tsunoda. He hasn't performed and needed another year in F2. Gasly is in a weird spot. His second AT stint shows he's clearly a very good driver but there also doesn't seem to be a path back to the senior team. Even if there was, would he want to go back? Problem is, where else is there? All of the top teams are 'full' so it's a game of waiting for a spot to open up and being available when it does.
I don't think he wants to drive in Max's shadow again, and who can really blame him? That second car is cursed. It's clearly setup and engineered in a way that only a generational talent like Max can wheel it.
Other options are all longshots. Mercedes when Hamilton retires? Could be a long way off. McLaren if Danny Ric fails to improve? Either way he'd be going into a team with an established driver. Only upside to his position is that he can get a sense of where the teams sit after the regulations change.
i don't even think the Alpha Tauri is that far down.... i mean hell, look where he's been qualifying
if ferrari is capable of laying an egg like they have the past few years, there's every chance that RB or Merc could do the same in a new aero package
we also talk about other random shit and clown upon each other
I can't really see the general ordering of the teams changing much with the regulation changes. Some will definitely shuffle about but it's unlikely Williams or Haas are suddenly going to be competing for wins. Broadly speaking, I'd group the teams as:
Mercedes, Ferrari, Red Bull
McLaren, Aston Martin, Alpine
Alpha Tauri
Alfa Romeo, Williams, Haas
Obviously that doesn't match their current standing entirely. Ferrari have the pull and resources that they'll always be a top team (and have challenged more than Red Bull in the past 8 years). The second group all have significant resources and could rub shoulders with the top group or even displace one of them, but don't quite have the stability or recent experience to make it to a championship contender. Alpha Tauri I have no idea, they're the only fully owned B-team on the grid. The bottom group all fall short on both expertise and resources, so are highly unlikely to make it any higher than midfield.
Edit: Of course next year could prove me entirely wrong, and make this ranking look very silly.