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[Social Media]: Our Blasted Digital Hellscape

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  • BurtletoyBurtletoy Registered User regular
    asur wrote: »
    Burtletoy wrote: »
    asur wrote: »
    Heffling wrote: »
    It would make my day if events fall out like this:

    1) Musk offers to buy Twitter for $46B
    2) Discovery reveals that Twitter has been lying about the size of their user base.
    3) Musk backs out of the deal with no penalties.
    4) The SEC fines Twitter into oblivion for falsifying information in their legally required annual reports.
    5) Musk loses the main tool for his hyping due to his efforts to protect his main tool for hyping.

    This isn't what will happen. He's attempting to force a renegotiation because Twitters valuation with the offer accepted dropped to $35 billion so why is he paying $46.

    It was trading at ~$33 per share when he made a formal offer to buy it for $54.20 per share.

    It went up to $45 after the offer, now its back to $40 with him "pausing" the offer.

    You always pay more than the company is worth when you buy it out, otherwise why would someone sell? It's already worth that amount. They don't get anything for selling for the current valuation.

    It only went up to $45 initially because people didn't entirely believe his offer. It's been to a high of $52.

    The market has dropped considerably since the offer and I see no reason that Twitter wouldn't have dropped along with it. If so he's now overpaying by at least 10%.

    You don't normally let the day-to-day movements of the stock market effect you buyout offers. If elon takes away the offer and only offers 44.20 instead, twitter/shareholders can just say no and walk away with 1 billion dollars from musk.

    Like the Zynga-Take Two merger, the offer included different final prices effected by the 120 day moving average of take-twos stock price.

    The musk offer was, like, on 4/20 or something, its been a month? two?

    Captain InertiaMoridin889
  • Captain InertiaCaptain Inertia Registered User regular
    Yeah you offer what you think it’s actually worth based on what you believe your plan can do with what you’re buying

    If your offer price is above the closing stock price, that extra amount becomes Goodwill, an intangible asset on the balance sheet

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  • BurtletoyBurtletoy Registered User regular
    Maybe if musk can prove the company is lying to him with the %5 bot thing, then he can get out of the deal and take a billion from twitter instead? I could see that being part of the exit clause of the offer

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  • PolaritiePolaritie Sleepy Registered User regular
    Burtletoy wrote: »
    Maybe if musk can prove the company is lying to him with the %5 bot thing, then he can get out of the deal and take a billion from twitter instead? I could see that being part of the exit clause of the offer

    Sure, he'd claim fraud and breach of contract in court and demand damages. Then probably settle out of court and get away with it all.

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  • Gnome-InterruptusGnome-Interruptus Registered User regular
    Polaritie wrote: »
    Burtletoy wrote: »
    Maybe if musk can prove the company is lying to him with the %5 bot thing, then he can get out of the deal and take a billion from twitter instead? I could see that being part of the exit clause of the offer

    Sure, he'd claim fraud and breach of contract in court and demand damages. Then probably settle out of court and get away with it all.

    It would be hilarious if that is the path he chooses and then Twitter decides that his market manipulation tweets violate their TOS and ban him.

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  • nexuscrawlernexuscrawler Registered User regular
    Alsmot all of Musk's wealth is tied up in how overvalued Tesla is. He can't risk that

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  • RMS OceanicRMS Oceanic Registered User regular
    Alsmot all of Musk's wealth is tied up in how overvalued Tesla is. He can't risk that

    Reminds me of WeWork being valued at $49 billion until they tried to float it on the stock market.

    ElvenshaePreacherHeffling
  • ButtersButters A glass of some milks Registered User regular
    Yeah you offer what you think it’s actually worth based on what you believe your plan can do with what you’re buying

    If your offer price is above the closing stock price, that extra amount becomes Goodwill, an intangible asset on the balance sheet

    From what I remember 3-5x annual profit (when it's profitable) is normal range for an acquisition and sometimes 10X is called for when it's a trendy item. Twitter is not trending up and was last profitable two years ago. He's overpaying by every conceivable measure if he closes this.

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  • klemmingklemming Registered User regular
    How invested is Musk in cryptocurrencies? Maybe he's realising he's substantially less rich than he was a couple of weeks ago.

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  • SnicketysnickSnicketysnick The Greatest Hype Man in WesterosRegistered User regular
    klemming wrote: »
    How invested is Musk in cryptocurrencies? Maybe he's realising he's substantially less rich than he was a couple of weeks ago.

    Tesla at least has significant Bitcoin holdings iirc, and has had "pay us in Bitcoin" as an option for a while

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  • [Expletive deleted][Expletive deleted] The mediocre doctor NorwayRegistered User regular
    klemming wrote: »
    How invested is Musk in cryptocurrencies? Maybe he's realising he's substantially less rich than he was a couple of weeks ago.

    Tesla at least has significant Bitcoin holdings iirc, and has had "pay us in Bitcoin" as an option for a while

    So if you buy a Tesla in Bitcoin, they sit on it rather than convert the Bitcoin to USD immediately like most others who accept Bitcoin?

    Sic transit gloria mundi.
  • BurtletoyBurtletoy Registered User regular
    klemming wrote: »
    How invested is Musk in cryptocurrencies? Maybe he's realising he's substantially less rich than he was a couple of weeks ago.

    Tesla at least has significant Bitcoin holdings iirc, and has had "pay us in Bitcoin" as an option for a while

    So if you buy a Tesla in Bitcoin, they sit on it rather than convert the Bitcoin to USD immediately like most others who accept Bitcoin?

    Possibly, but also Tesla purchased 1.5 billion dollars worth of bitcoin in early 2021 which they are just holding instead of dollars

  • 38thDoe38thDoe lets never be stupid again wait lets always be stupid foreverRegistered User regular
    Alsmot all of Musk's wealth is tied up in how overvalued Tesla is. He can't risk that

    He already did, it was 1200 this year, it was down to 600s this week.

  • Undead ScottsmanUndead Scottsman Registered User regular
    Any news on the twitter buyout? Has Mr. Musk though about holding a GoFundMe to get the money if he can't afford it himself?

  • PreacherPreacher Registered User regular
    I think he tweeted a poop emoji today, so you know who can really tell

    I would like some money because these are artisanal nuggets of wisdom philistine.

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  • ArcTangentArcTangent Registered User regular
    edited May 16
    Preacher wrote: »
    I think he tweeted a poop emoji today, so you know who can really tell

    He tweeted it in response to the Twitter CEO posting a thread about how there's ACTUALLY almost no spam on Twitter. Just take Twitter's word for it.

    Which... uh.

    Don't think either of them are coming off this one great.

    ArcTangent on
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  • electricitylikesmeelectricitylikesme Registered User regular
    So there was an independent analysis done recently which concluded the number of fake or bot accounts on Twitter is probably closer to 20%: https://sparktoro.com/blog/sparktoro-followerwonk-joint-twitter-analysis-19-42-of-active-accounts-are-fake-or-spam/

    It also includes this pretty funny graph: % of accounts believed to be fake:

    percent-of-twitter-fake-or-spam-1024.png

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  • Captain InertiaCaptain Inertia Registered User regular
    edited May 16
    The poop emoji was a reply to a long tweet thread by Twitter’s CEO explaining how they’re confident bots are less than 5% of the users but they can’t be sure

    The whole thing is dumb as hell

    Captain Inertia on
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  • cloudeaglecloudeagle Registered User regular
    edited May 17
    Another wee hour tweet:


    20% fake/spam accounts, while 4 times what Twitter claims, could be *much* higher.

    My offer was based on Twitter’s SEC filings being accurate.

    Yesterday, Twitter’s CEO publicly refused to show proof of <5%.

    This deal cannot move forward until he does.

    This comes the day after Musk publicly angled for a lower purchase price for Twitter.

    So it's either an escape route or Musk literally has no clue how acquisitions work. Or what "due diligence" is.

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  • GilgaronGilgaron Registered User regular
    Is this one of those stupid things where he has probably shorted Twitter knowing he could make a scary fuss about bots? A bored billionaire could probably run the same scheme on Facebook.

    Captain InertiaDoodmann
  • spool32spool32 Contrary Library Registered User regular
    edited May 17
    A comment about twitter through which I force the entire thread to agree with Jordan Peterson:

    3c1ymzep6o2y.png

    spool32 on
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  • TetraNitroCubaneTetraNitroCubane The Djinnerator At the bottom of a bottleRegistered User regular
    Yeah, but Peterson deserves an endless flood of vicious insults.

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  • reVersereVerse Attack and Dethrone God Registered User regular
    Interesting that you chose to leave out the context of why he was receiving these "vicious insults".

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  • ArcTangentArcTangent Registered User regular
    Context: Peterson is being excoriated on Twitter right now for being upset and insulting to the woman on the cover of Sports Illustrated's swimsuit edition because she's not a photoshopped supermodel and that it's the fault of "authoritarian tolerance."

    Irony, is of course, lost on him.

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  • Captain InertiaCaptain Inertia Registered User regular
    Ooh, I’ll add it

    He logged on to post a terrible insult about the SI Swimsuit cover model’s appearance

    Martini_Philosopher
  • shrykeshryke Member of the Beast Registered User regular
    I'm pretty sure everyone in this thread thinks Peterson almost certainly deserves whatever is coming his way. There's no need to get weirdly hostile about it.

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  • Rhesus PositiveRhesus Positive GNU Terry Pratchett Registered User regular
    spool32 wrote: »
    A comment about twitter through which I force the entire thread to agree with Jordan Peterson:

    3c1ymzep6o2y.png

    It's not the only place you can experience an endless flood of vicious insults

    Has he never been on Xbox Live or the chat for any popular game ever?

    And you don't even need to post a needlessly insulting comment about a model, either

    [Muffled sounds of gorilla violence]
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  • mxmarksmxmarks Registered User regular
    I had a great boss who left for another job and a new boss took over, and on his first day he said "Do you listen to podcasts?" and I said yes. And he was like "Have you listened to Jordan Peterson?" and I quit 2 weeks later. Nooooooooo thank you.

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  • notyanotya Registered User regular
    Fingers crossed he's backing out if only so trump doesn't get back on

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  • spool32spool32 Contrary Library Registered User regular
    reVerse wrote: »
    Interesting that you chose to leave out the context of why he was receiving these "vicious insults".

    It's not really interesting. I was making A Joke.

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  • Rhesus PositiveRhesus Positive GNU Terry Pratchett Registered User regular
    spool32 wrote: »
    reVerse wrote: »
    Interesting that you chose to leave out the context of why he was receiving these "vicious insults".

    It's not really interesting. I was making A Joke.

    How dare you

    But in a "worst person you know makes good point" way, he's right about the incentive structure - you get more engagement with a sick burn than an effort post, but I'm not sure if there's a way to make that not be the case besides not posting stuff that's so easily sick burnable

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  • nexuscrawlernexuscrawler Registered User regular
    Jordan Peterson needs to clean his room

    Elvenshae
  • SorceSorce Not ThereRegistered User regular
    And to circle back around on that, Elon Musk's Mom is one of the other cover models.

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  • PreacherPreacher Registered User regular
    Not to say people don't get randomly insulted garbage on twitter, but like people like Jordan Peterson don't just get it out of the blue. So he's more upset about the fuck around and find out variety of twitter discourse than random hateful assholes who he probably supports.

    I would like some money because these are artisanal nuggets of wisdom philistine.

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  • nexuscrawlernexuscrawler Registered User regular
    My lord that man can says so little with so many words.

    He's like a Lit 101 term paper come to life.

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  • ArbitraryDescriptorArbitraryDescriptor Registered User regular
    edited May 17
    spool32 wrote: »
    reVerse wrote: »
    Interesting that you chose to leave out the context of why he was receiving these "vicious insults".

    It's not really interesting. I was making A Joke.

    I read it as a wistful recollection of what he'll miss about the platform.

    ArbitraryDescriptor on
  • cloudeaglecloudeagle Registered User regular
    My "favorite" Twitter reaction was when I was debating with someone politely, then a random sealion who apparently searched keywords for fights to start tried to start a fight. And after I responded to him politely a few times he went "oh yeah? Well I'M BLOCKING YOU HOW DO YOU LIKE THIS PUNISHMENT?!?"

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  • asurasur Registered User regular
    Gilgaron wrote: »
    Is this one of those stupid things where he has probably shorted Twitter knowing he could make a scary fuss about bots? A bored billionaire could probably run the same scheme on Facebook.

    I think this would be illegal. It seems more likely that Musk is either trying to back out of the deal and doesn't want to forfeit a cool billion or as he's also stated wants a lower price.

    Butters
  • Hahnsoo1Hahnsoo1 Make Ready. We Hunt.Registered User regular
    cloudeagle wrote: »
    My "favorite" Twitter reaction was when I was debating with someone politely, then a random sealion who apparently searched keywords for fights to start tried to start a fight. And after I responded to him politely a few times he went "oh yeah? Well I'M BLOCKING YOU HOW DO YOU LIKE THIS PUNISHMENT?!?"

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  • Commander ZoomCommander Zoom Registered User regular
    asur wrote: »
    Gilgaron wrote: »
    Is this one of those stupid things where he has probably shorted Twitter knowing he could make a scary fuss about bots? A bored billionaire could probably run the same scheme on Facebook.

    I think this would be illegal. It seems more likely that Musk is either trying to back out of the deal and doesn't want to forfeit a cool billion or as he's also stated wants a lower price.

    As with so many things lately, "only if they actually enforce it."

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