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[War] Putin's Insane in Ukraine (Insane in the Brain)

zagdrobzagdrob Registered User regular
edited April 2022 in Debate and/or Discourse
Next week will be one month since the Russian invasion of Ukraine that started the morning of February 24th (local time) and it's still unclear who is winning this war.

Ukraine and western intelligence sources are reporting that Russia has committed 100% of their operational reserves to Ukraine, and are tapping deep into other reserves throughout the country while begging allied or aligned nations for support. Estimates of Russian deaths vary, but credible estimates are that several thousand have certainly died, and some estimates are beginning to approach 10,000 Russian dead. There are no good estimates on the number of Ukrainians lost, either fighters or civilians, but the civilian death toll is already expected to be horrific. Ukraine has been exceptionally effective in targeting Russian command and control, with Russia losing possibly a half dozen generals in the past several weeks and their forces have been decimated by the literal meaning of the term.

The armored convoy that has been approaching Kyiv since the beginning of the war has dispersed into the countryside and by all accounts still lacks fuel and food with many report Russian soldiers are looting food from and quartering in local homes. So far the Russian Air Force somehow still does not have air superiority and are low on precision guided munitions, cruise missiles, and other modern high tech weapons. Unfortunately dumb bombs and artillery shells seem to be in plentiful supply and are effective for inflicting terror on civilians.

The breaking news from the LAST thread that Poland was sending nearly 30 Mig-29 jets to Ukraine still hasn't materialized, but a number of exceedingly powerful weapons including a large number of switchblade drones and anti-tank / anti-air systems (as well as small arms) are being delivered from NATO.

Although stalled in most of the country, Russian forces have had more success in the south of Ukraine and is in control of Kherson, Melitopol, and Berdiansk. This infographic published by the New York Times is considered accurate as of 3/19.

m47repqbki98.png

In Russia sanctions are taking their toll, with almost all Western companies having suspended operations in Russia. Russia's stock market STILL hasn't opened and there's really no indication when it will. Russia has clamped down on internal dissent and appears to be recreating the Iron Curtain for communications and travel in and out of the country. The Russian government has also taken to heavy handed propaganda measures pushing the 'Z' symbol, with the below clip a no-shit Russian published video, not a parody or outtake from Hunger Games or Starship Troopers.

kKMG8Jd.gif




vl6rk0xy5tzt.jpg

And for our American-centric posters, here's an overlay of Ukraine over the US. For reference, Kyiv would be mid-Tennessee or roughly Nashville on this map. A couple hour at most drive from the Russian / Belarus border where the Russian armed forces staged.

q37dy8houjfj.jpg

Off limits is in depth discussion of Democratic Socialists of America, tankies, and leftist / centrist sniping. Also with Azov battalion or other Neo Nazis largely having fled the country or otherwise likely dead / POWs please avoid this derail unless there is meaningful new information. Per mod decree, we all agree war crimes are bad. Without reliable and well sourced evidence we should not simply assume they are being done.

For in-depth discussion of NATO vs. Russia nuclear war, MAD, or other general nuclear war topics only somewhat related to Ukraine we have the GDST Global Thermonuclear War thread here:

https://forums.penny-arcade.com/discussion/188967/a-god-damned-separate-thread-for-your-argument-about-global-thermonuclear-war

For in-depth discussion of sanctions and their impact, we have the GST on Sanctions thread:

https://forums.penny-arcade.com/discussion/243903/a-gst-on-wheat-and-wheat-byproducts-also-sanctions

This thread moves fast - the Post-Soviet States thread went through 150 pages in eight years but since the invasion we've gone through over 200 300 pages of discussion in the [War] thread. Everyone be kind to each other and remember it's ok to take a break if you're feeling overwhelmed. Nobody has an obligation to doomscroll every post.

Bogart on
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    jothkijothki Registered User regular
    Is there any reason we'd even want there to be a No Fly Zone in Ukraine? Wouldn't a big part of that have to involve shooting down Ukrainian drones?

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    The Zombie PenguinThe Zombie Penguin Eternal Hungry Corpse Registered User regular
    Thanks again to everyone maintaining these threads with well sourced info and reporting - it's been really helpful for understanding this conflict

    Ideas hate it when you anthropomorphize them
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    XaquinXaquin Right behind you!Registered User regular
    I think the implication is that it would be a no fly zone for anyone but ukraine and nato forces

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    MechMantisMechMantis Registered User regular
    jothki wrote: »
    Is there any reason we'd even want there to be a No Fly Zone in Ukraine? Wouldn't a big part of that have to involve shooting down Ukrainian drones?

    No.

    The No Fly Zone could simply be "Any non-Ukrainian aircraft are not permitted to be in Ukrainian airspace, and will be enforced by the following nations (insert list here)

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    Knuckle DraggerKnuckle Dragger Explosive Ovine Disposal Registered User regular
    >Putin's Insane in Ukraine

    We also would have accepted, “Putin on the Blitz,” or, “Rootin’ Tootin’ Shootin’ Putin.”

    Let not any one pacify his conscience by the delusion that he can do no harm if he takes no part, and forms no opinion.

    - John Stuart Mill
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    ZibblsnrtZibblsnrt Registered User regular
    jothki wrote: »
    Is there any reason we'd even want there to be a No Fly Zone in Ukraine? Wouldn't a big part of that have to involve shooting down Ukrainian drones?

    A no fly zone doesn't mean "nobody flies, period." It means "nobody who isn't authorized to fly in the no fly zone flies, period."

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    hlprmnkyhlprmnky Registered User regular
    When I encounter something in my daily life where someone has put a ton of effort into creating an experience that is clear, well-researched, useful, and comprehensive I sometimes think of it as “like a PA forums thread OP” and this thread is not only no exception, it is maybe the gold standard. Thanks to zagdrob and all the other folks making this thread the place I come to check in on this stupid, tragic, important current event.

    _
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    DracomicronDracomicron Registered User regular
    >Putin's Insane in Ukraine

    We also would have accepted, “Putin on the Blitz,” or, “Rootin’ Tootin’ Shootin’ Putin.”

    Crazy insane, lost some planes.

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    FiendishrabbitFiendishrabbit Registered User regular
    zagdrob wrote: »
    Although stalled in most of the country, Russian forces have had more success in the south of Ukraine and is in control of Kherson, Melitopol, and Berdiansk. This infographic published by the New York Times is considered accurate as of 3/19.

    m47repqbki98.png

    I think it's weird that Konotop is listed as "Taken by Russians". Sure. The mayor signed a deal of non-aggression (when the other alternative was russian occupation), but I still find it weird (compared to liveuamap which list it as unoccupied).

    "The western world sips from a poisonous cocktail: Polarisation, populism, protectionism and post-truth"
    -Antje Jackelén, Archbishop of the Church of Sweden
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    JusticeforPlutoJusticeforPluto Registered User regular
    Another good argument I heard against a No Fly Zone is that it changes the nature of the conflict from "Russia versus Ukraine" to "NATO versus Russia"

    Lots of nations that have been hesitant about supporting Russia might not longer be if suddenly Russia is the underdog, and it gives credence to Russia's claims that they had to preemptively invade Ukraine to prevent NATO from getting a foothold there.

    It's a bad idea, as much as I would love to see NATO warplanes chase Russia out and end this pointless war.

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    zagdrobzagdrob Registered User regular
    Thanks again to everyone maintaining these threads with well sourced info and reporting - it's been really helpful for understanding this conflict
    hlprmnky wrote: »
    When I encounter something in my daily life where someone has put a ton of effort into creating an experience that is clear, well-researched, useful, and comprehensive I sometimes think of it as “like a PA forums thread OP” and this thread is not only no exception, it is maybe the gold standard. Thanks to zagdrob and all the other folks making this thread the place I come to check in on this stupid, tragic, important current event.

    Aw shucks you guys. :blush:
    >Putin's Insane in Ukraine

    We also would have accepted, “Putin on the Blitz,” or, “Rootin’ Tootin’ Shootin’ Putin.”

    Variations on both "Tootin' Putin" and 'Putin on the Risk' have been workshopped but I really really have wanted to go with the Cypress Hill reference. I was just hung up on the whole not saying 'The' Ukraine but decided to just go with it.

    Hopefully the war ends and there's no need for a fifth iteration of this thread.

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    CouscousCouscous Registered User regular
    https://www.spiegel.de/international/world/ivan-krastev-on-russia-s-invasion-of-ukraine-putin-lives-in-historic-analogies-and-metaphors-a-1d043090-1111-4829-be90-c20fd5786288
    "Putin Lives in Historic Analogies and Metaphors"

    Political scientist Ivan Krastev is an astute observer of Vladimir Putin. In an interview, he speaks of the Russian president's isolation, his understanding of Russian history and how he has become a prisoner of his own rhetoric.
    Krastev: It should also be mentioned that the Western media has contributed to creating a false image of Putin. First, they say that Putin is corrupt. That is true. But does it explain his politics? Putin has been the leader of a nuclear power for 20 years. He thinks in terms of history, betrayal and malice. For such a person, corruption is merely an instrument of power. Money may have been important to Putin when he was younger, but it isn’t any longer. Second, they say that Putin is a cynical gambler, a trickster. In 2011, Putin said that the protests against him had been organized by the American Embassy. Western analysts said that was propaganda, because he knew that wasn’t true. During that dinner, it became clear to me: He really believes it. In his understanding of history, things never happen spontaneously. If people demonstrate, he doesn’t ask: Why are they out on the streets? He asks: Who sent them? When we take him at his word, he won’t surprise us anymore. If you read his essay from July of last year, in which he wrote that Ukrainians and Russians are a single people and he would never accept an anti-Russian Ukraine, you find out exactly what his intentions are. And third, they say that Putin is somebody who is extremely strategic and tactical.
    This feels like a repeat of people insisting on taking Trump seriously, not literally

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    AegeriAegeri Tiny wee bacteriums Plateau of LengRegistered User regular
    I guess it’s pertinent at this point, but when will the first Putin downfall meme occur?

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    FiendishrabbitFiendishrabbit Registered User regular
    >Putin's Insane in Ukraine

    We also would have accepted, “Putin on the Blitz,” or, “Rootin’ Tootin’ Shootin’ Putin.”

    I would have gone for "Ukraine: The missiles have gone to plaid"

    "The western world sips from a poisonous cocktail: Polarisation, populism, protectionism and post-truth"
    -Antje Jackelén, Archbishop of the Church of Sweden
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    chrisnlchrisnl Registered User regular
    Aegeri wrote: »
    I guess it’s pertinent at this point, but when will the first Putin downfall meme occur?

    If you mean the bunker scene where Hitler rages but they change the subtitles, there already was one that was just Hitler verbally eviscerating Putin.

    steam_sig.png
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    Knuckle DraggerKnuckle Dragger Explosive Ovine Disposal Registered User regular
    Let not any one pacify his conscience by the delusion that he can do no harm if he takes no part, and forms no opinion.

    - John Stuart Mill
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    autono-wally, erotibot300autono-wally, erotibot300 love machine Registered User regular
    New Russia false flag/pretext alert: Defense Ministry is claiming that Ukraine's Azov Batallion is going to attack US and western diplomats in Lviv.

    So, how long until russian agents provocateur attack US / Western diplomats?

    Tweeter is an Investigative journalist at ForensicNewsNet

    kFJhXwE.jpgkFJhXwE.jpg
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    JusticeforPlutoJusticeforPluto Registered User regular
    New Russia false flag/pretext alert: Defense Ministry is claiming that Ukraine's Azov Batallion is going to attack US and western diplomats in Lviv.

    So, how long until russian agents provocateur attack US / Western diplomats?

    Tweeter is an Investigative journalist at ForensicNewsNet

    The Azov battalion that is trapped in Mariupol?

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    autono-wally, erotibot300autono-wally, erotibot300 love machine Registered User regular
    New Russia false flag/pretext alert: Defense Ministry is claiming that Ukraine's Azov Batallion is going to attack US and western diplomats in Lviv.

    So, how long until russian agents provocateur attack US / Western diplomats?

    Tweeter is an Investigative journalist at ForensicNewsNet

    The Azov battalion that is trapped in Mariupol?

    Didn't you know? Nazis can teleport now, which is the reason Russia has to bomb newborns, since Nazis could be anywhere at any time.

    kFJhXwE.jpgkFJhXwE.jpg
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    ScooterScooter Registered User regular
    To create a false flag attack, Russia would need to have a notable number of secret agents in Lviv themselves to do it. Which is...possible, but seems unlikely.

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    RMS OceanicRMS Oceanic Registered User regular
    They're clearly going to false flag with their cleverly concealed stockpile of hypersonic missiles they definitely have lots of.

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    BurtletoyBurtletoy Registered User regular
    Was the 30 silver coins a Bible thing?

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    DevoutlyApatheticDevoutlyApathetic Registered User regular
    Burtletoy wrote: »
    Was the 30 silver coins a Bible thing?

    Yes.

    It is the money Judas was paid to betray Jesus.

    Nod. Get treat. PSN: Quippish
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    shrykeshryke Member of the Beast Registered User regular
    edited March 2022
    Couscous wrote: »
    https://www.spiegel.de/international/world/ivan-krastev-on-russia-s-invasion-of-ukraine-putin-lives-in-historic-analogies-and-metaphors-a-1d043090-1111-4829-be90-c20fd5786288
    "Putin Lives in Historic Analogies and Metaphors"

    Political scientist Ivan Krastev is an astute observer of Vladimir Putin. In an interview, he speaks of the Russian president's isolation, his understanding of Russian history and how he has become a prisoner of his own rhetoric.
    Krastev: It should also be mentioned that the Western media has contributed to creating a false image of Putin. First, they say that Putin is corrupt. That is true. But does it explain his politics? Putin has been the leader of a nuclear power for 20 years. He thinks in terms of history, betrayal and malice. For such a person, corruption is merely an instrument of power. Money may have been important to Putin when he was younger, but it isn’t any longer. Second, they say that Putin is a cynical gambler, a trickster. In 2011, Putin said that the protests against him had been organized by the American Embassy. Western analysts said that was propaganda, because he knew that wasn’t true. During that dinner, it became clear to me: He really believes it. In his understanding of history, things never happen spontaneously. If people demonstrate, he doesn’t ask: Why are they out on the streets? He asks: Who sent them? When we take him at his word, he won’t surprise us anymore. If you read his essay from July of last year, in which he wrote that Ukrainians and Russians are a single people and he would never accept an anti-Russian Ukraine, you find out exactly what his intentions are. And third, they say that Putin is somebody who is extremely strategic and tactical.
    This feels like a repeat of people insisting on taking Trump seriously, not literally

    I'm not clear what the connection is supposed to be between those two ideas.

    Krastev's point seems to be that Putin actually believes this shit. That he's serious about what he talks about. When it comes to what he views as Russian unification or the betrayal of the USSR or Western hypocrisy, etc.

    He also thinks Putin's views have left him disconnected from the real world and how people feel about all this. He didn't expect the Ukrainian or Western reactions to his invasion. He views the things happening that are in contradiction to his views as being conspiracies by the West. And he feels betrayed and aggrieved by it all.

    shryke on
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    TryCatcherTryCatcher Registered User regular
    edited March 2022
    Journalist Yasha Levine points out how "the man of the people" dresses:
    haha. putin records vid insinuating that all the “foie gras” eating traitors who don’t support the war will be taken out to the woodshed…only to don what looks like a $15,000 italian designer jacket at a patriotic rally the next day. true man of the people here.

    Vlad is a disgusting asshole.

    TryCatcher on
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    TastyfishTastyfish Registered User regular
    edited March 2022
    Burtletoy wrote: »
    Was the 30 silver coins a Bible thing?

    Yes.

    It is the money Judas was paid to betray Jesus.

    I'm genuinely surprised that the 30 pieces of silver isn't something that's registering more with people. It's the one thing people know about Judas, who I assumed was probably one of the more famous disciples (other than Peter and the Gospel "authors").

    Tastyfish on
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    bwaniebwanie Posting into the void Registered User regular
    that does not look like a 15000 dollar jacket. You got duped Vlad.

    Yh6tI4T.jpg
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    EinzelEinzel Registered User regular
    bwanie wrote: »
    that does not look like a 15000 dollar jacket. You got duped Vlad.

    What does?

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    IncenjucarIncenjucar VChatter Seattle, WARegistered User regular
    Rich people have incredibly bad taste these days. All cash no class. It makes the wasted money that much more pathetic.

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    DelduwathDelduwath Registered User regular
    Einzel wrote: »
    bwanie wrote: »
    that does not look like a 15000 dollar jacket. You got duped Vlad.

    What does?
    $15,000, in bills, stapled together into a jacket shape.

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    FencingsaxFencingsax It is difficult to get a man to understand, when his salary depends upon his not understanding GNU Terry PratchettRegistered User regular
    edited March 2022
    $15k is worth more than all the clothes I've ever owned.

    Fencingsax on
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    DacDac Registered User regular
    Tastyfish wrote: »
    Burtletoy wrote: »
    Was the 30 silver coins a Bible thing?

    Yes.

    It is the money Judas was paid to betray Jesus.

    I'm genuinely surprised that the 30 pieces of silver isn't something that's registering more with people. It's the one thing people know about Judas, who I assumed was probably one of the more famous disciples (other than Peter and the Gospel "authors").

    People are far more familiar with the smooch than the price paid.

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    shrykeshryke Member of the Beast Registered User regular
    edited March 2022
    The Kyiv Independent is reporting that Russia is forcibly relocating Mariupol residents to Russia:
    (The Kyiv Independent is an independent english-language journalism outlet in Ukraine)
    Mariupol council: Russian occupiers forcibly move thousands of Mariupol residents to Russia.

    The civilians were allegedly taken to camps where Russians checked their phones and documents and then forcibly moved some of them to remote cities in Russia.

    A classic in the Russian/Soviet sphere if true. And also another disturbing potential crime to throw on the heap.

    shryke on
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    SchrodingerSchrodinger Registered User regular
    bwanie wrote: »
    that does not look like a 15000 dollar jacket. You got duped Vlad.

    You should check out his $3,200 track suit.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0utzB6oDan0

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    CouscousCouscous Registered User regular
    Tastyfish wrote: »
    Burtletoy wrote: »
    Was the 30 silver coins a Bible thing?

    Yes.

    It is the money Judas was paid to betray Jesus.

    I'm genuinely surprised that the 30 pieces of silver isn't something that's registering more with people. It's the one thing people know about Judas, who I assumed was probably one of the more famous disciples (other than Peter and the Gospel "authors").

    It even has its own Wikipedia page.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thirty_pieces_of_silver

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    KalTorakKalTorak One way or another, they all end up in the Undercity.Registered User regular
    Einzel wrote: »
    bwanie wrote: »
    that does not look like a 15000 dollar jacket. You got duped Vlad.

    What does?

    Tracy-Jordan-money-suit.jpg?q=50&fit=crop&w=963&h=481&dpr=1.5

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    JusticeforPlutoJusticeforPluto Registered User regular
    If we're post Last Week Tonight clips, the one on Lukashenko is really good at showing just how much of an idiot the man is.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=27FpoRiStgk

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    SchrodingerSchrodinger Registered User regular
    Scooter wrote: »
    To create a false flag attack, Russia would need to have a notable number of secret agents in Lviv themselves to do it. Which is...possible, but seems unlikely.

    Russian saboteurs is an actual worry, especially since they're relying so heavily on volunteers. They're capturing about 16 people per day, and those are just the ones they know about.

    https://www.npr.org/2022/03/15/1086733790/on-the-hunt-for-russian-saboteurs

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    TraceTrace GNU Terry Pratchett; GNU Gus; GNU Carrie Fisher; GNU Adam We Registered User regular
    I think like, actually going through with that false flag would be terrible for Putin. Just... yeah do you want the US really pissed off at you? We're already plenty pissed, but we've got gears.

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    MarathonMarathon Registered User regular
    edited March 2022
    Trace wrote: »
    I think like, actually going through with that false flag would be terrible for Putin. Just... yeah do you want the US really pissed off at you? We're already plenty pissed, but we've got gears.

    And we also have the ability to conduct covert ops too.

    Marathon on
This discussion has been closed.