Next week will be one month since the Russian invasion of Ukraine that started the morning of February 24th (local time) and it's still unclear who is winning this war.
Ukraine and western intelligence sources are reporting that Russia has committed 100% of their operational reserves to Ukraine, and are tapping deep into other reserves throughout the country while begging allied or aligned nations for support. Estimates of Russian deaths vary, but credible estimates are that several thousand have certainly died, and some estimates are beginning to approach 10,000 Russian dead. There are no good estimates on the number of Ukrainians lost, either fighters or civilians, but the civilian death toll is already expected to be horrific. Ukraine has been exceptionally effective in targeting Russian command and control, with Russia losing possibly a half dozen generals in the past several weeks and their forces have been decimated by the literal meaning of the term.
The armored convoy that has been approaching Kyiv since the beginning of the war has dispersed into the countryside and by all accounts still lacks fuel and food with many report Russian soldiers are looting food from and quartering in local homes. So far the Russian Air Force somehow still does not have air superiority and are low on precision guided munitions, cruise missiles, and other modern high tech weapons. Unfortunately dumb bombs and artillery shells seem to be in plentiful supply and are effective for inflicting terror on civilians.
The breaking news from the LAST thread that Poland was sending nearly 30 Mig-29 jets to Ukraine still hasn't materialized, but a number of exceedingly powerful weapons including a large number of switchblade drones and anti-tank / anti-air systems (as well as small arms) are being delivered from NATO.
Although stalled in most of the country, Russian forces have had more success in the south of Ukraine and is in control of Kherson, Melitopol, and Berdiansk. This infographic published by the New York Times is considered accurate as of 3/19.
In Russia sanctions are taking their toll, with almost all Western companies having suspended operations in Russia. Russia's stock market STILL hasn't opened and there's really no indication when it will. Russia has clamped down on internal dissent and appears to be recreating the Iron Curtain for communications and travel in and out of the country. The Russian government has also taken to heavy handed propaganda measures pushing the 'Z' symbol, with the below clip a no-shit Russian published video, not a parody or outtake from Hunger Games or Starship Troopers.
And for our American-centric posters, here's an overlay of Ukraine over the US. For reference, Kyiv would be mid-Tennessee or roughly Nashville on this map. A couple hour at most drive from the Russian / Belarus border where the Russian armed forces staged.
Off limits is in depth discussion of Democratic Socialists of America, tankies, and leftist / centrist sniping. Also with Azov battalion or other Neo Nazis largely having fled the country or otherwise likely dead / POWs please avoid this derail unless there is meaningful new information. Per mod decree, we all agree war crimes are bad. Without reliable and well sourced evidence we should not simply assume they are being done.
For in-depth discussion of NATO vs. Russia nuclear war, MAD, or other general nuclear war topics only somewhat related to Ukraine we have the GDST Global Thermonuclear War thread here:
https://forums.penny-arcade.com/discussion/188967/a-god-damned-separate-thread-for-your-argument-about-global-thermonuclear-war
For in-depth discussion of sanctions and their impact, we have the GST on Sanctions thread:
https://forums.penny-arcade.com/discussion/243903/a-gst-on-wheat-and-wheat-byproducts-also-sanctions
This thread moves fast - the Post-Soviet States thread went through 150 pages in eight years but since the invasion we've gone through over
200 300 pages of discussion in the [War] thread. Everyone be kind to each other and remember it's ok to take a break if you're feeling overwhelmed. Nobody has an obligation to doomscroll every post.
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No.
The No Fly Zone could simply be "Any non-Ukrainian aircraft are not permitted to be in Ukrainian airspace, and will be enforced by the following nations (insert list here)
A no fly zone doesn't mean "nobody flies, period." It means "nobody who isn't authorized to fly in the no fly zone flies, period."
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Crazy insane, lost some planes.
I think it's weird that Konotop is listed as "Taken by Russians". Sure. The mayor signed a deal of non-aggression (when the other alternative was russian occupation), but I still find it weird (compared to liveuamap which list it as unoccupied).
-Antje Jackelén, Archbishop of the Church of Sweden
Aw shucks you guys.
Variations on both "Tootin' Putin" and 'Putin on the Risk' have been workshopped but I really really have wanted to go with the Cypress Hill reference. I was just hung up on the whole not saying 'The' Ukraine but decided to just go with it.
Hopefully the war ends and there's no need for a fifth iteration of this thread.
I would have gone for "Ukraine: The missiles have gone to plaid"
-Antje Jackelén, Archbishop of the Church of Sweden
If you mean the bunker scene where Hitler rages but they change the subtitles, there already was one that was just Hitler verbally eviscerating Putin.
So, how long until russian agents provocateur attack US / Western diplomats?
Tweeter is an Investigative journalist at ForensicNewsNet
Didn't you know? Nazis can teleport now, which is the reason Russia has to bomb newborns, since Nazis could be anywhere at any time.
Yes.
It is the money Judas was paid to betray Jesus.
I'm not clear what the connection is supposed to be between those two ideas.
Krastev's point seems to be that Putin actually believes this shit. That he's serious about what he talks about. When it comes to what he views as Russian unification or the betrayal of the USSR or Western hypocrisy, etc.
He also thinks Putin's views have left him disconnected from the real world and how people feel about all this. He didn't expect the Ukrainian or Western reactions to his invasion. He views the things happening that are in contradiction to his views as being conspiracies by the West. And he feels betrayed and aggrieved by it all.
Vlad is a disgusting asshole.
I'm genuinely surprised that the 30 pieces of silver isn't something that's registering more with people. It's the one thing people know about Judas, who I assumed was probably one of the more famous disciples (other than Peter and the Gospel "authors").
What does?
People are far more familiar with the smooch than the price paid.
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(The Kyiv Independent is an independent english-language journalism outlet in Ukraine)
A classic in the Russian/Soviet sphere if true. And also another disturbing potential crime to throw on the heap.
You should check out his $3,200 track suit.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0utzB6oDan0
It even has its own Wikipedia page.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thirty_pieces_of_silver
Russian saboteurs is an actual worry, especially since they're relying so heavily on volunteers. They're capturing about 16 people per day, and those are just the ones they know about.
https://www.npr.org/2022/03/15/1086733790/on-the-hunt-for-russian-saboteurs
And we also have the ability to conduct covert ops too.