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Unborking the [Ukraine] discussion

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    GaddezGaddez Registered User regular
    It's worth noting that This airplane was at the youngest at least 31 years old; I'm not an aeronautic engineer but I'm pretty sure that it should have beer retired a decade ago due to the fact that there can't be sufficeint parts to maintain it at this point.

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    honoverehonovere Registered User regular
    Gaddez wrote: »
    It's worth noting that This airplane was at the youngest at least 31 years old; I'm not an aeronautic engineer but I'm pretty sure that it should have beer retired a decade ago due to the fact that there can't be sufficeint parts to maintain it at this point.

    Panavia Tornados are still flying with the youngest being produced in 1998. Don't even kow how old the US and Russian strategic bombers are right now. 50?

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    V1mV1m Registered User regular
    Active and meticulous maintenance and a not very active service life vs vranyo maintenance and being flown on combat ops several times a week for the last couple of years...

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    hiraethhiraeth SpaceRegistered User regular
    edited April 19
    Ukraine said they shot it down

    https://t.me/ComAFUA/271
    The official Telegram channel of the commander of the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Lieutenant General Mykola Oleschuk

    15 MISSILES, 14 UAVs AND TU-22M3 BOMBARD DESTROYED
    ➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖
    On the night of April 19, 2024, the Russian invaders launched a combined strike with missiles of various types and attack UAVs.

    In total, the enemy used 36 means of air attack - 22 missiles of various types and 14 attack drones:
    - 2 Kh-101/Kh-555 cruise missiles from Tu-95 MS strategic aviation aircraft (Ryazan launch area - Russian Federation);
    - 14 attack UAVs of the "Shahed-131/136" type (from Primorsko-Akhtarsk regions, Kursk region - Russian Federation);
    - 12 Kh-59/Kh-69 guided air missiles (Kursk region and from the waters of the Sea of ​​Azov);
    - 2 "Iskander-K" cruise missiles (from Crimea);
    - 6 Kh-22 cruise missiles from Tu-22M3 long-range strategic bombers (from the waters of the Black and Azov Seas).

    Anti-aircraft missile troops of the Air Force, mobile fire groups and electronic warfare units of the Defense Forces of Ukraine were involved in repelling the enemy's air attack.

    💥 As a result of anti-aircraft combat, 29 air targets were destroyed:
    - 2 Kh-101/Kh-555 cruise missiles;
    - 14 strike UAVs of the "Shahed-131/136" type;
    - 11 Kh-59/Kh-69 guided air missiles;
    - 2 Kh-22 cruise missiles.

    ❗️For the first time, the anti-aircraft missile units of the Air Force in cooperation with the Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine destroyed the Tu-22M3 long-range strategic bomber - the carrier of Kh-22 cruise missiles, which Russian terrorists use to attack peaceful Ukrainian cities. During today's attack, two such missiles were destroyed for the first time.
    Ukraine needs more means, more missiles, in order to better protect the frontline territories from Russian terrorism.


    🤝 I thank everyone who ensured this result today. Evil will be punished!

    🇺🇦 Together - to victory!
    ➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖
    🇺🇦 Air Force Commander Lieutenant General Mykola Oleschuk
    fg3ad46bq22w.jpg

    (preview is showing everything weird hope this works)

    hiraeth on
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    hiraethhiraeth SpaceRegistered User regular
    https://www.facebook.com/DefenceIntelligenceofUkraine/videos/781706780602578/
    💥 As a result of the GUR operation in interaction with the Air Force, the Tu-22MZ bomber, which was launching missiles across Ukraine today, was destroyed
    🤝 One of the further Tu-22M3 bombers, which on the night of April 19, carried out a missile attack against Ukraine, was shot down as a result of a special operation of the General Intelligence Directorate in cooperation with the Air Force.
    ✔️ The enemy aircraft Tu-22MZ managed to hit down at a distance of about 300 kilometers from Ukraine by the same means that the Russian aircraft of long-location detection and control A-50 had previously been hit. Due to the impact, the bomber was able to fly to the Stavropol area, where he fell and crashed.
    ❗️ It should be noted that this is the first successful destruction of a strategic air bomber during a combat flight during Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
    💀 There will be fair retribution for every war crime committed against Ukraine.
    🇺🇦 Glory to Ukraine!

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    honoverehonovere Registered User regular
    edited April 19
    Ukraine managing to intercept Kh-22 cruise missiles might be a bigger deal even? Would be the first of, as far as I can tell, about 300 that have been fired by Russia.

    article from december about Ukraine'S problem with the Kh-22
    https://www.kyivpost.com/post/26102
    under related articles there'S also an article that claims Ukraine used a S200 missile system again to down the bomber

    not all is great, looks like Ukraine lost two mig-29 and an s300 launcher among others in a strike on an airfield

    honovere on
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    V1mV1m Registered User regular
    edited April 19
    If that Tu-22 was indeed intercepted so far from Ukraine, then that's kind of a problem for the Russian airforce

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X72_pq12cb4

    V1m on
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    CasualCasual Wiggle Wiggle Wiggle Flap Flap Flap Registered User regular
    honovere wrote: »
    Gaddez wrote: »
    It's worth noting that This airplane was at the youngest at least 31 years old; I'm not an aeronautic engineer but I'm pretty sure that it should have beer retired a decade ago due to the fact that there can't be sufficeint parts to maintain it at this point.

    Panavia Tornados are still flying with the youngest being produced in 1998. Don't even kow how old the US and Russian strategic bombers are right now. 50?

    I think the Germans are the only ones still flying Tornados, and that's less an intentional choice and more the Germans being very German about getting the replacements in service. The UK retired the last of ours in 2019 and even those were presumably past their intended service life. High performance fighter jets are put under a lot more strain than bigger slower aircraft and don't last as long.

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    FiendishrabbitFiendishrabbit Registered User regular
    The Tu-22Ms closest equivalent would be the B-1 Lancer (large high-speed swing-wing strategic bomber). The Lancer is even older and stopped being produced in 1988 (5 years before the last Tu-22M). It is also still in service.

    "The western world sips from a poisonous cocktail: Polarisation, populism, protectionism and post-truth"
    -Antje Jackelén, Archbishop of the Church of Sweden
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    KrieghundKrieghund Registered User regular
    What's the maintenance regime for a B-1 as compared to a Tu-22? Like, we have B-52s that are generations old, but with proper maintenance, they can do the job.

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    SealSeal Registered User regular
    B1 is maintenance intensive, swing-wings means there's a lot of high wear moving parts that can go wrong.

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    ZibblsnrtZibblsnrt Registered User regular
    The USAF also uses its planes a lot more than most other air forces do given the amount of additional weight it puts on things like keeping pilots well-trained and the like. A 30-40-year-old bomber that was mostly flying Soviet/Russian air force tempos until the current war was probably doing mostly alright in terms of comparative wear on the airframe.

    Well, missile impacts notwithstanding. Those usually add quite a bit of wear.

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    PolaritiePolaritie Sleepy Registered User regular
    Zibblsnrt wrote: »
    The USAF also uses its planes a lot more than most other air forces do given the amount of additional weight it puts on things like keeping pilots well-trained and the like. A 30-40-year-old bomber that was mostly flying Soviet/Russian air force tempos until the current war was probably doing mostly alright in terms of comparative wear on the airframe.

    Well, missile impacts notwithstanding. Those usually add quite a bit of wear.

    More tear than wear I think.

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    hiraethhiraeth SpaceRegistered User regular
    Insanity is the word, mind boggling losses for a small suburb sized village


    https://nitter.poast.org/AndrewPerpetua/status/1781332809061142915#m
    Andrew Perpetua
    @AndrewPerpetua
    13h
    The Russian losses in Novomykhailivka are just insanity.

    Video of mild combat footage

    The ending says it's 6 months of battle for the village.

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    SpectrumSpectrum Archer of Inferno Chaldea Rec RoomRegistered User regular
    4/18 Ukrainian milvlogging tl;dw Recent highlights from the defense around Semenivka, which is at the center of the next defensive line west of Avdiivka. Ukrainian forces have been hitting Russian concentrations in Orlivka on the Russian side of the river to try and prevent them from massing too many troops, but Russians still manage a company sized attack that was repulsed after getting an initial foothold.

    XNnw6Gk.jpg
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    FiendishrabbitFiendishrabbit Registered User regular
    edited April 20
    https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-house-vote-long-awaited-95-billion-ukraine-israel-aid-package-2024-04-20/
    https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2024/04/20/congress/house-clears-ukraine-aid-00153493

    US House of Representatives just passed the 95 billion USD Ukraine/Israel aid package (of which 60.8 billion goes to Ukraine), with a vote of 311-112 (no points for guessing who voted against).

    Now the only thing required is a vote in the Democrat-majority US senate.

    Fiendishrabbit on
    "The western world sips from a poisonous cocktail: Polarisation, populism, protectionism and post-truth"
    -Antje Jackelén, Archbishop of the Church of Sweden
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    fedaykin666fedaykin666 Registered User regular
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/apr/20/us-house-approves-61bn-aid-ukraine

    Recent highlight includes thank god you guys finally got there. There is still hope. I hope the logistics guys have been ready to go for months.

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    shrykeshryke Member of the Beast Registered User regular
    Given how much of a priority this is for Biden, I'm assuming they are as ready to go as they can be.

    But you never know.

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    ForarForar #432 Toronto, Ontario, CanadaRegistered User regular
    Even with the US’s well known advantages in staggering levels of logistical wizardry, I do hope that a ton of the supplies due to end up in Ukraine “accidentally” got staged as close as possible. They’ve had months. And y’know, maybe a carton of Bradley’s or fifty that someone wanted to show off in Poland? Aren’t these things cool you guys? Whelp guess we should pack them all back up…

    First they came for the Muslims, and we said NOT TODAY, MOTHERFUCKER!
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    honoverehonovere Registered User regular
    honovere wrote: »
    Ukraine managing to intercept Kh-22 cruise missiles might be a bigger deal even? Would be the first of, as far as I can tell, about 300 that have been fired by Russia.

    article from december about Ukraine'S problem with the Kh-22
    https://www.kyivpost.com/post/26102
    under related articles there'S also an article that claims Ukraine used a S200 missile system again to down the bomber

    not all is great, looks like Ukraine lost two mig-29 and an s300 launcher among others in a strike on an airfield

    Ukraine lost another mig 29, s300 launcher, and a Pelikan radar near Dnipro, about 100km behind the front to drones.

    Not a great week in that regard.

    Senate vote is on the 23rd, I've seen mentioned? So new stuff could theoretically arrive in Ukraine by the end of the month?

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    StarZapperStarZapper Vermont, Bizzaro world.Registered User regular
    My understanding is much of the needed munitions have been stockpiled right across the border for monthes, just waiting for authorization to send it. So much of that stuff could be in Ukraines hands by the end of next week.

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    RingoRingo He/Him a distinct lack of substanceRegistered User regular
    I thought that was just hopeful speculation

    Sterica wrote: »
    I know my last visit to my grandpa on his deathbed was to find out how the whole Nazi werewolf thing turned out.
    Edcrab's Exigency RPG
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    PolaritiePolaritie Sleepy Registered User regular
    The difference may not actually be significant, depending on how much of the USAF airlift capacity gets thrown at the problem?

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    FiendishrabbitFiendishrabbit Registered User regular
    The need to split up supplies also puts a limit on how fast supplies can be brought in. Wouldn't do to bring in quarter of a million artillery rounds to a warehouse near Lviv and have it all blown up by a Kh-22/Kinzhal/whatever. Because while Russian intelligence isn't as good as Ukrainian it's very hard to hide "a fuckload of trucks and traincars filled with ammo".

    "The western world sips from a poisonous cocktail: Polarisation, populism, protectionism and post-truth"
    -Antje Jackelén, Archbishop of the Church of Sweden
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    zepherinzepherin Russian warship, go fuck yourself Registered User regular
    The need to split up supplies also puts a limit on how fast supplies can be brought in. Wouldn't do to bring in quarter of a million artillery rounds to a warehouse near Lviv and have it all blown up by a Kh-22/Kinzhal/whatever. Because while Russian intelligence isn't as good as Ukrainian it's very hard to hide "a fuckload of trucks and traincars filled with ammo".
    There is also how fast they can productively use the equipment as well. If you can fire 75k a month, which is about the max Ukraine can fire. They don’t need a quarter million immediately. Because they can’t use them effectively and they become a liability in a war zone.

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    FiendishrabbitFiendishrabbit Registered User regular
    Ideally you want 3 days in organic supply and another 14 days in forward supply. Although given how static the frontline is that is probably impossible to achieve, so halve that number. That gives us about 9 days of supply, which by minimum Ukrainian expenditure is 18000 rounds in the first week, but preferably 45k rounds in the first week. In the first month minimally 60k rounds but preferably 150k rounds.
    Ukraines desired artillery use is probably closer to 300k per month (or close to 3.6 million rounds per year) but unless the US/Europe goes full wartime economy they're not getting that anytime soon.

    "The western world sips from a poisonous cocktail: Polarisation, populism, protectionism and post-truth"
    -Antje Jackelén, Archbishop of the Church of Sweden
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    DonnictonDonnicton Registered User regular
    https://nypost.com/2024/04/20/world-news/pro-kremlin-texan-russell-bentley-found-dead-in-ukraine/

    You may or may not have heard of Temporarily Useful Idiot Z-blogger Russel "Texas" Bentley before, an American veteran who left America to go join the Russian military in Donbas early in the war to "fight for communism against fascism" - it looks like news has come out today on media channels that he has been found dead, apparently having been abducted, tortured and killed by some faction of Russian military who mistook him for a NATO spy.

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    FiendishrabbitFiendishrabbit Registered User regular
    Sadly that's probably not going to deter other useful idiots. By now they're locked-in voters for the face-eating leopards party and completely convinced that it's never going to be their faces that get eaten.

    "The western world sips from a poisonous cocktail: Polarisation, populism, protectionism and post-truth"
    -Antje Jackelén, Archbishop of the Church of Sweden
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    GaddezGaddez Registered User regular
    https://nypost.com/2024/04/20/world-news/pro-kremlin-texan-russell-bentley-found-dead-in-ukraine/

    You may or may not have heard of Temporarily Useful Idiot Z-blogger Russel "Texas" Bentley before, an American veteran who left America to go join the Russian military in Donbas early in the war to "fight for communism against fascism" - it looks like news has come out today on media channels that he has been found dead, apparently having been abducted, tortured and killed by some faction of Russian military who mistook him for a NATO spy.

    And nothing of value was lost.

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    SpectrumSpectrum Archer of Inferno Chaldea Rec RoomRegistered User regular
    4/20 Ukrainian milvlogging tl;dw Russia was making moves that indicate they were more seriously thinking about the threatened renewed offensive against Kharkiv. Ukraine standoff weapons responded against some targets to try and prevent a critical mass building up.

    XNnw6Gk.jpg
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    V1mV1m Registered User regular
    Ukraine's treatment of the Black Sea Fleet really is verging on bullying (SFL)

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3aQdokFuDlE

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    V1mV1m Registered User regular
    I did not realise this earlier, so apologies to everyone smarter than me who already did for repeating it, but it wasn't just the Ukraine aid bill that passed last night

    https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/04/20/7452182/
    The US House of Representatives has voted in favour of the bill that would see the expansion of sanctions against Russia and allow Russian assets to be confiscated in favour of Ukraine.

    This is potentially just as big a deal for Ukraine after the war as military aid is for Ukraine during the war. I mean I'm pretty certain that the seized assets aren't going to be just handed over to Kyiv as pallets of cash, but even if it's used to pay US companies to fill reconstruction contracts, that's potentially a lot of rebuilding from Ukraine paid for with Putin's stolen money.

    This has not been a good weekend for Putin. Incidentally, Beau5C has an interesting take - and sounds a note of caution - about what happened yesterday

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hNTOONmcDmM

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    override367override367 ALL minions Registered User regular
    It wont happen, but the funniest shit in the universe would be if the maga sect kicks out Johnson and 3 or 4 republicans resign, giving Democrats control of the government for a few months

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    V1mV1m Registered User regular
    As I understand things, a congressperson who resigns now leaves their seat empty until November, so there would need to be I think 3? More? Doing this. Beau5C points out that this would clear the way for the Democrats not merely to ram through a raft of popular legislation right before the election - possibly including further support for Ukraine btw - but it would also mean they could have Congress declare Trump an insurrectionist, opening the way to have him removed from the ballot per the Supreme Court ruling on the matter. Although I am 100% certain that there would immediately be a lot of "not like that"ing).

    (Whilst there's an argument that this would actually be a clear and immediate benefit to the GOP, on account of what's happening to them there down-ballot races, I doubt that they'd see it that way.)

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    GaddezGaddez Registered User regular
    As I understand things, a congressperson who resigns now leaves their seat empty until November, so there would need to be I think 3? More? Doing this. Beau5C points out that this would clear the way for the Democrats not merely to ram through a raft of popular legislation right before the election - possibly including further support for Ukraine btw - but it would also mean they could have Congress declare Trump an insurrectionist, opening the way to have him removed from the ballot per the Supreme Court ruling on the matter. Although I am 100% certain that there would immediately be a lot of "not like that"ing).

    (Whilst there's an argument that this would actually be a clear and immediate benefit to the GOP, on account of what's happening to them there down-ballot races, I doubt that they'd see it that way.)
    Theres also the issue that doing this (even if's entirely justified and you could get the decrepit tradionalists to go with it) would likely trigger mass violence beyond the scope of anything the US has ever seen due to the direct interference with the election and how it would cause the party to have to scramble to put up another guy with no time to actually campaign on anything other then "Holy shit the dem's are trying to sabotage democracy!"

    No. If trump was to be declared an insurrectionist (and good lord he should have been years ago) then it should have been done either well before 2024 or after he loses the election (which the RNC will likely thank their lucky stars for since it will let them retake control of the party).

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    FiendishrabbitFiendishrabbit Registered User regular
    edited April 21
    Moscow Times Top Russian Hypersonic scientist sentenced to 7 years for Treason

    Considering how Russia tends to sentence people to far longer sentences for far less I'm going to guess that he didn't actually commit treason, but that this is punishment for something else.
    Maybe because the weapons he developed didn't live up to the hype.

    Fiendishrabbit on
    "The western world sips from a poisonous cocktail: Polarisation, populism, protectionism and post-truth"
    -Antje Jackelén, Archbishop of the Church of Sweden
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    override367override367 ALL minions Registered User regular
    edited April 21
    I'm sure he told them that "I think there's some confusion, it is only *technically* hyper-DONT LISTEN TO ALEXANDER HERE HE IS MODEST OF COURSE KINZHAL CANNOT BE INTERECEPTED AND IS SO HYPERSONIC IT TELEPORTS TO TARGET, MORE VODKA COMRADE SHOIGU?"

    override367 on
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    ScooterScooter Registered User regular
    Getting control of the House is already a longshot chance, there's about zero chance of us living in a world where the Dems are also confident enough to declare Trump an insurrectionist with a 1-seat majority.

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    SpectrumSpectrum Archer of Inferno Chaldea Rec RoomRegistered User regular
    4/21 Ukrainian milvlogging tl;dw Ukrainian defense east of Chasiv Yar looks to be on a timer. Russians managed to bloodily force themselves into the forest directly east of the canal district. This then let them accumulate forces without Ukraine being able to fully dislodge them, which they then use to threaten the flanks of Bohdanivka. Ukrainian defenders were forced to cede the village and retreat to the high ground NW of the village. Russia then can use the space to threaten the northern flank of the canal district and be able to interdict one of the bridges across.

    Further, Russia looks to have full control of Ivanivske and is pushing west from there. That gives them another attack vector into the south of the canal district, which would interdict the other bridge supplying the area. At that point the district would be cut off and while they could put up a bloody defense, it would inevitably fall once their supplies run out.

    Russia appears to dominate the local air space and has free reign to glide bomb all of Chasiv Yar and past that to some other locations in the rear.

    XNnw6Gk.jpg
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    V1mV1m Registered User regular
    If Ukraine could get some more patriot missiles (and launchers) say, today that would be great thanks.

    And by "thanks", I mean "Thanks Mike Johnson, you bloody-handed literal servant of Lucifer".

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