2024 is a strange year with so many elections being held in it, which also isn't helping. Both major parties have indicated that increased military spending (and generally a focus on increasing capacity for shells/missile production) will be part of their manifestos - but there's no date set yet for the election so that's not going to be a day 0 thing happening. France has theirs in June on top of the European elections that are also taking place around the same time.
Second half of this year is when the real consequences of the sanctions are expected to start hitting as well aren't they? As the costs of the short term mitigation efforts come home to roost, maintenance cycles start to edge closer to the disastrous risk categories and the last of the reserves and replacement 'bits of stuff' start to run out.
I'm almost wonder how close China is getting to having to decide how much it really wants to support Russia, or if stepping back and letting things start taking it's course once the cheques start bouncing again is more in their interest that seeing the West/Nato get properly organised in getting production lines going for swift replacements and restocking of Ukraine. If the war in Ukraine ends at the end of this year or beginning of next, that restocking process is going to be a lot more leisurely.
2024 is a strange year with so many elections being held in it, which also isn't helping. Both major parties have indicated that increased military spending (and generally a focus on increasing capacity for shells/missile production) will be part of their manifestos - but there's no date set yet for the election so that's not going to be a day 0 thing happening. France has theirs in June on top of the European elections that are also taking place around the same time.
Second half of this year is when the real consequences of the sanctions are expected to start hitting as well aren't they? As the costs of the short term mitigation efforts come home to roost, maintenance cycles start to edge closer to the disastrous risk categories and the last of the reserves and replacement 'bits of stuff' start to run out.
I'm almost wonder how close China is getting to having to decide how much it really wants to support Russia, or if stepping back and letting things start taking it's course once the cheques start bouncing again is more in their interest that seeing the West/Nato get properly organised in getting production lines going for swift replacements and restocking of Ukraine. If the war in Ukraine ends at the end of this year or beginning of next, that restocking process is going to be a lot more leisurely.
China needs closer ties with Russia going forward if they hope to fight their own wars of conquest any time soon. Right now they need to import energy and food by sea, and getting into a shooting war with the US Navy(and the blockades they can trivially implement) would be immediately disastrous. Russia is an exporter of both and directly borders them by land.
Of all the BRICS countries those two have the only real reason to support each other, especially if one dreams of conquering Europe and the other of conquering Asia.
I'm going to get yelled at for even putting this out into the universe, but fuck it, 'manifesting things' is bullshit, don't @ me.
I'm feeling pretty confident that Ukraine, nations of the EU, and other allied sorts have been doing a lot of math on what to do if Trump wins in November.
Hell, short of something that would actually get folks executed, it'd be just swell if someone 'forgot' a bunch of long range strike munitions with the keys still in them (I know, I know) on the Polish border. Repeatedly. Every week between November and January 20th 2025.
Once he takes office and goes through the motions to restrict/rescind support, and maybe even redirect it to that glorious stallion of a man, Putin, his best friend, a good man who says such nice things about him, etc, obviously the calculus will change once again.
Basically, we all lamented that many nations put off certain systems or training for months or years.
We *know*, with certainty, that we are ~9 months away from things potentially going extra pear shaped, and will have a much clearer idea in ~6.5 or so.
Hopefully contingency planning is happening now, in preparation for that possible outcome.
Now, obviously, I'm not saying that they should hold back help. I hope all the help possible goes out as fast as possible.
But as the long running joke goes about nations having contingency plans for fighting off zombies or an alien invasion, this seems like a very realistic potential outcome that I hope has had good people putting a lot of thought and work into.
I'll take "Pretext for Trump to Join the War On Russia's Side" for $1000, Alex
That's wholly compatible with Russia getting booted out of Ukraine. That Russia will be very low on friends and will have destroyed the most lucrative market for its primary exports.
The military aid package will include, among other things, the following:
60 boats, including offshore raiding craft, rigid raiding craft, and dive boats, as well as maritime guns;
More than 1,600 strike and air defense missiles, as well as additional Storm Shadow long-range precision-guided missiles;
More than 400 vehicles, including 160 protected mobility ‘Husky’ vehicles, 162 armored vehicles and 78 all-terrain vehicles;
Nearly 4 million rounds of small arms ammunition.
Russia was probably wise to move the rest of the BSF out of Sevastopol. But I'm sure other snacks can be found.
2024 is a strange year with so many elections being held in it, which also isn't helping. Both major parties have indicated that increased military spending (and generally a focus on increasing capacity for shells/missile production) will be part of their manifestos - but there's no date set yet for the election so that's not going to be a day 0 thing happening. France has theirs in June on top of the European elections that are also taking place around the same time.
Second half of this year is when the real consequences of the sanctions are expected to start hitting as well aren't they? As the costs of the short term mitigation efforts come home to roost, maintenance cycles start to edge closer to the disastrous risk categories and the last of the reserves and replacement 'bits of stuff' start to run out.
I'm almost wonder how close China is getting to having to decide how much it really wants to support Russia, or if stepping back and letting things start taking it's course once the cheques start bouncing again is more in their interest that seeing the West/Nato get properly organised in getting production lines going for swift replacements and restocking of Ukraine. If the war in Ukraine ends at the end of this year or beginning of next, that restocking process is going to be a lot more leisurely.
China needs closer ties with Russia going forward if they hope to fight their own wars of conquest any time soon. Right now they need to import energy and food by sea, and getting into a shooting war with the US Navy(and the blockades they can trivially implement) would be immediately disastrous. Russia is an exporter of both and directly borders them by land.
Of all the BRICS countries those two have the only real reason to support each other, especially if one dreams of conquering Europe and the other of conquering Asia.
Said it before and I’ll say it again: china’s best play is to give Russia just enough support to keep the war going but not enough to actually win since that way they cause Russia to burn itself the fuck out (making it more reliant on china) while at the same time causing nato to waste resources that could be potentially sent to Taiwan.
After all, getting the latter would be great but making Russia a stunted tributary for the next several decades? That might actually be better.
I'm going to get yelled at for even putting this out into the universe, but fuck it, 'manifesting things' is bullshit, don't @ me.
I'm feeling pretty confident that Ukraine, nations of the EU, and other allied sorts have been doing a lot of math on what to do if Trump wins in November.
Hell, short of something that would actually get folks executed, it'd be just swell if someone 'forgot' a bunch of long range strike munitions with the keys still in them (I know, I know) on the Polish border. Repeatedly. Every week between November and January 20th 2025.
Once he takes office and goes through the motions to restrict/rescind support, and maybe even redirect it to that glorious stallion of a man, Putin, his best friend, a good man who says such nice things about him, etc, obviously the calculus will change once again.
Basically, we all lamented that many nations put off certain systems or training for months or years.
We *know*, with certainty, that we are ~9 months away from things potentially going extra pear shaped, and will have a much clearer idea in ~6.5 or so.
Hopefully contingency planning is happening now, in preparation for that possible outcome.
Now, obviously, I'm not saying that they should hold back help. I hope all the help possible goes out as fast as possible.
But as the long running joke goes about nations having contingency plans for fighting off zombies or an alien invasion, this seems like a very realistic potential outcome that I hope has had good people putting a lot of thought and work into.
I'll take "Pretext for Trump to Join the War On Russia's Side" for $1000, Alex
Pretty much, although if Trump's in the White House next year the US is going to switch sides regardless. Remember, the man praised the invasion as a genius move, and had talked about US military assistance to Russia at points.
That's wholly compatible with Russia getting booted out of Ukraine. That Russia will be very low on friends and will have destroyed the most lucrative market for its primary exports.
The military aid package will include, among other things, the following:
60 boats, including offshore raiding craft, rigid raiding craft, and dive boats, as well as maritime guns;
More than 1,600 strike and air defense missiles, as well as additional Storm Shadow long-range precision-guided missiles;
More than 400 vehicles, including 160 protected mobility ‘Husky’ vehicles, 162 armored vehicles and 78 all-terrain vehicles;
Nearly 4 million rounds of small arms ammunition.
Russia was probably wise to move the rest of the BSF out of Sevastopol. But I'm sure other snacks can be found.
Especially as the US bill includes instructions to give Ukraine the full range ATACAMS
2024 is a strange year with so many elections being held in it, which also isn't helping. Both major parties have indicated that increased military spending (and generally a focus on increasing capacity for shells/missile production) will be part of their manifestos - but there's no date set yet for the election so that's not going to be a day 0 thing happening. France has theirs in June on top of the European elections that are also taking place around the same time.
Second half of this year is when the real consequences of the sanctions are expected to start hitting as well aren't they? As the costs of the short term mitigation efforts come home to roost, maintenance cycles start to edge closer to the disastrous risk categories and the last of the reserves and replacement 'bits of stuff' start to run out.
I'm almost wonder how close China is getting to having to decide how much it really wants to support Russia, or if stepping back and letting things start taking it's course once the cheques start bouncing again is more in their interest that seeing the West/Nato get properly organised in getting production lines going for swift replacements and restocking of Ukraine. If the war in Ukraine ends at the end of this year or beginning of next, that restocking process is going to be a lot more leisurely.
China needs closer ties with Russia going forward if they hope to fight their own wars of conquest any time soon. Right now they need to import energy and food by sea, and getting into a shooting war with the US Navy(and the blockades they can trivially implement) would be immediately disastrous. Russia is an exporter of both and directly borders them by land.
Of all the BRICS countries those two have the only real reason to support each other, especially if one dreams of conquering Europe and the other of conquering Asia.
If anything Russia-India are tighter than Russia-China. They complement each other quite well in terms of science and economy, and they would compliment each other even better if Russia weren't russo-supremacists and India weren't going full Hindu nationalism atm.
"The western world sips from a poisonous cocktail: Polarisation, populism, protectionism and post-truth"
-Antje Jackelén, Archbishop of the Church of Sweden
2024 is a strange year with so many elections being held in it, which also isn't helping. Both major parties have indicated that increased military spending (and generally a focus on increasing capacity for shells/missile production) will be part of their manifestos - but there's no date set yet for the election so that's not going to be a day 0 thing happening. France has theirs in June on top of the European elections that are also taking place around the same time.
Second half of this year is when the real consequences of the sanctions are expected to start hitting as well aren't they? As the costs of the short term mitigation efforts come home to roost, maintenance cycles start to edge closer to the disastrous risk categories and the last of the reserves and replacement 'bits of stuff' start to run out.
I'm almost wonder how close China is getting to having to decide how much it really wants to support Russia, or if stepping back and letting things start taking it's course once the cheques start bouncing again is more in their interest that seeing the West/Nato get properly organised in getting production lines going for swift replacements and restocking of Ukraine. If the war in Ukraine ends at the end of this year or beginning of next, that restocking process is going to be a lot more leisurely.
China needs closer ties with Russia going forward if they hope to fight their own wars of conquest any time soon. Right now they need to import energy and food by sea, and getting into a shooting war with the US Navy(and the blockades they can trivially implement) would be immediately disastrous. Russia is an exporter of both and directly borders them by land.
Of all the BRICS countries those two have the only real reason to support each other, especially if one dreams of conquering Europe and the other of conquering Asia.
If anything Russia-India are tighter than Russia-China. They complement each other quite well in terms of science and economy, and they would compliment each other even better if Russia weren't russo-supremacists and India weren't going full Hindu nationalism atm.
2024 is a strange year with so many elections being held in it, which also isn't helping. Both major parties have indicated that increased military spending (and generally a focus on increasing capacity for shells/missile production) will be part of their manifestos - but there's no date set yet for the election so that's not going to be a day 0 thing happening. France has theirs in June on top of the European elections that are also taking place around the same time.
Second half of this year is when the real consequences of the sanctions are expected to start hitting as well aren't they? As the costs of the short term mitigation efforts come home to roost, maintenance cycles start to edge closer to the disastrous risk categories and the last of the reserves and replacement 'bits of stuff' start to run out.
I'm almost wonder how close China is getting to having to decide how much it really wants to support Russia, or if stepping back and letting things start taking it's course once the cheques start bouncing again is more in their interest that seeing the West/Nato get properly organised in getting production lines going for swift replacements and restocking of Ukraine. If the war in Ukraine ends at the end of this year or beginning of next, that restocking process is going to be a lot more leisurely.
China needs closer ties with Russia going forward if they hope to fight their own wars of conquest any time soon. Right now they need to import energy and food by sea, and getting into a shooting war with the US Navy(and the blockades they can trivially implement) would be immediately disastrous. Russia is an exporter of both and directly borders them by land.
Of all the BRICS countries those two have the only real reason to support each other, especially if one dreams of conquering Europe and the other of conquering Asia.
If anything Russia-India are tighter than Russia-China. They complement each other quite well in terms of science and economy, and they would compliment each other even better if Russia weren't russo-supremacists and India weren't going full Hindu nationalism atm.
Also if they had an actual border.
Not having an actual border probably helps as much as anything with their relationship.
That's wholly compatible with Russia getting booted out of Ukraine. That Russia will be very low on friends and will have destroyed the most lucrative market for its primary exports.
The military aid package will include, among other things, the following:
60 boats, including offshore raiding craft, rigid raiding craft, and dive boats, as well as maritime guns;
More than 1,600 strike and air defense missiles, as well as additional Storm Shadow long-range precision-guided missiles;
More than 400 vehicles, including 160 protected mobility ‘Husky’ vehicles, 162 armored vehicles and 78 all-terrain vehicles;
Nearly 4 million rounds of small arms ammunition.
Russia was probably wise to move the rest of the BSF out of Sevastopol. But I'm sure other snacks can be found.
Especially as the US bill includes instructions to give Ukraine the full range ATACAMS
2024 is a strange year with so many elections being held in it, which also isn't helping. Both major parties have indicated that increased military spending (and generally a focus on increasing capacity for shells/missile production) will be part of their manifestos - but there's no date set yet for the election so that's not going to be a day 0 thing happening. France has theirs in June on top of the European elections that are also taking place around the same time.
Second half of this year is when the real consequences of the sanctions are expected to start hitting as well aren't they? As the costs of the short term mitigation efforts come home to roost, maintenance cycles start to edge closer to the disastrous risk categories and the last of the reserves and replacement 'bits of stuff' start to run out.
I'm almost wonder how close China is getting to having to decide how much it really wants to support Russia, or if stepping back and letting things start taking it's course once the cheques start bouncing again is more in their interest that seeing the West/Nato get properly organised in getting production lines going for swift replacements and restocking of Ukraine. If the war in Ukraine ends at the end of this year or beginning of next, that restocking process is going to be a lot more leisurely.
China needs closer ties with Russia going forward if they hope to fight their own wars of conquest any time soon. Right now they need to import energy and food by sea, and getting into a shooting war with the US Navy(and the blockades they can trivially implement) would be immediately disastrous. Russia is an exporter of both and directly borders them by land.
Of all the BRICS countries those two have the only real reason to support each other, especially if one dreams of conquering Europe and the other of conquering Asia.
If anything Russia-India are tighter than Russia-China. They complement each other quite well in terms of science and economy, and they would compliment each other even better if Russia weren't russo-supremacists and India weren't going full Hindu nationalism atm.
Also if they had an actual border.
Not having an actual border probably helps as much as anything with their relationship.
The no votes were Sanders, Merkley, Welch and a bunch of Republicans you can probably guess.
Opponents in the Senate, like the House, included some left-wing senators who are opposed to aiding Israel as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has bombarded Gaza and killed thousands of civilians. Sens. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., and Jeff Merkley, D-Ore., voted against the package.
“We must end our complicity in this terrible war,” Sanders said.
+6
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SpectrumArcher of InfernoChaldea Rec RoomRegistered Userregular
tl;dw The Russian advance west of Avdiivka made tactically significant gains recently. The floating end of the defensive line north of Berdychi was exploited as Russian scouting revealed that Ukrainian defenders had indeed left that as a weak spot. They have pushed a salient hard northwest into Ocheretyne and are working on solidifying their gains there as well as widening the salient to prevent it from being cut off and pocketed. A further Ukrainian mistake in troop allocation and rotation allowed Russian troops to expand their initial toehold in Ocheretyne into more significant control.
UK to send Paveway IV aerial bombs to Ukraine as part of next military aid package, according to BBC journalist Jonathan Beale.
"Latest batch of UK military aid to Ukraine will include Paveway IV bombs," he says.
Paveway IV characteristics
The Paveway IV bomb is a 230 kg munition equipped with two guidance systems: GPS and laser. It is produced by the UK company Raytheon UK and is the latest version of the Paveway series.
The Paveway IV can engage targets using GPS, laser targeting, or a combination of both. This gives pilots more flexibility when choosing strike tactics. The aerial bomb has also high accuracy in hitting targets.
Paveway IV can be used from a variety of combat aircraft, including the Harrier GR9, Panavia Tornado, Eurofighter Typhoon, and F-35 Lightning II.
Overall the Paveway IV is an effective and versatile weapon used by the Royal Air Force and likely to be used by the Royal Navy.
The no votes were Sanders, Merkley, Welch and a bunch of Republicans you can probably guess.
Opponents in the Senate, like the House, included some left-wing senators who are opposed to aiding Israel as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has bombarded Gaza and killed thousands of civilians. Sens. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., and Jeff Merkley, D-Ore., voted against the package.
“We must end our complicity in this terrible war,” Sanders said.
The no votes were Sanders, Merkley, Welch and a bunch of Republicans you can probably guess.
Opponents in the Senate, like the House, included some left-wing senators who are opposed to aiding Israel as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has bombarded Gaza and killed thousands of civilians. Sens. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., and Jeff Merkley, D-Ore., voted against the package.
“We must end our complicity in this terrible war,” Sanders said.
Basically expected. I presume some counting was done and golden tickets were handed out for the protest votes.
+16
Options
Inquisitor772 x Penny Arcade Fight Club ChampionA fixed point in space and timeRegistered Userregular
The no votes were Sanders, Merkley, Welch and a bunch of Republicans you can probably guess.
Opponents in the Senate, like the House, included some left-wing senators who are opposed to aiding Israel as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has bombarded Gaza and killed thousands of civilians. Sens. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., and Jeff Merkley, D-Ore., voted against the package.
“We must end our complicity in this terrible war,” Sanders said.
Basically expected. I presume some counting was done and golden tickets were handed out for the protest votes.
One of the annoying parts of the sausage making, for sure.
Agreed. I hope/expect it'll be a 'oh, they just got home from their first sortie 35 minutes ago' kinda thing.
I mean, not literally, but you know what I mean. As with many spiffy new capabilities, ideally we'll find out about them when a bunch of Russian shit is abruptly blown up/on fire.
First they came for the Muslims, and we said NOT TODAY, MOTHERFUCKER!
Previously committed so I don't think they're part of the current bill, but they're also still tied up in pilot training until sometime this summer/fall.
I mean, in general terms, I would say that we would expect to be able to deliver aid within days. You know, of course, and I will caveat this by saying I don't have anything to announce right now in terms of what that aid could look like. You know, we need to have a law first. But depending on what that aid is -- and as you've seen in the past, we provide a variety of aid -- you know, anticipating this, we're doing everything we can to lean forward to be able to provide additional security assistance to Ukraine as quickly as possible.
And that's from a 19 hour old article. So they're ready to go.
That's wholly compatible with Russia getting booted out of Ukraine. That Russia will be very low on friends and will have destroyed the most lucrative market for its primary exports.
The military aid package will include, among other things, the following:
60 boats, including offshore raiding craft, rigid raiding craft, and dive boats, as well as maritime guns;
More than 1,600 strike and air defense missiles, as well as additional Storm Shadow long-range precision-guided missiles;
More than 400 vehicles, including 160 protected mobility ‘Husky’ vehicles, 162 armored vehicles and 78 all-terrain vehicles;
Nearly 4 million rounds of small arms ammunition.
Russia was probably wise to move the rest of the BSF out of Sevastopol. But I'm sure other snacks can be found.
Especially as the US bill includes instructions to give Ukraine the full range ATACAMS
UK to send Paveway IV aerial bombs to Ukraine as part of next military aid package, according to BBC journalist Jonathan Beale.
"Latest batch of UK military aid to Ukraine will include Paveway IV bombs," he says.
Paveway IV characteristics
The Paveway IV bomb is a 230 kg munition equipped with two guidance systems: GPS and laser. It is produced by the UK company Raytheon UK and is the latest version of the Paveway series.
The Paveway IV can engage targets using GPS, laser targeting, or a combination of both. This gives pilots more flexibility when choosing strike tactics. The aerial bomb has also high accuracy in hitting targets.
Paveway IV can be used from a variety of combat aircraft, including the Harrier GR9, Panavia Tornado, Eurofighter Typhoon, and F-35 Lightning II.
Overall the Paveway IV is an effective and versatile weapon used by the Royal Air Force and likely to be used by the Royal Navy.
Cool. Although I'm curious to how they expect to deploy the weapon in a meaningful way. The benefits of the Paveway is precision, but it has very low stand-off capability. You can lob it to some extent, but you'd have to be within a few km of the target since it doesn't really have any ability to glide.
"The western world sips from a poisonous cocktail: Polarisation, populism, protectionism and post-truth"
-Antje Jackelén, Archbishop of the Church of Sweden
My guess is they will be used after one of Ukraine's famous "hit absolutely everything with a drone bomb" maneuvers and in areas Russia temporarily has minimal air defense
they can't be everywhere
although I don't imagine they'll get too much use until F-16s are in Ukraine
After the promise of a third Patriot system by Germany, Greece now considers sending one system in return for security assurances by the US against Turkey (Greece has been and is very unwilling to send anything from their military stocks because of the their relationship with Turkey), and Germany is pressuring the US to also send at least another Patriot system.
There'S another Ramstein Meeting on the 26th so maybe some more definite news about more anti-air systems then
While that's awesome of Greece, I think it's an unfortunate reality that the US should no longer be a reliable partner when it comes to a security assurance. If Biden wins? Absolutely. If Trump wins? Erdogan is Trump's buddy, and if he wants to fuck with Greece, well, Trump would probably think that's OK.
It's absolutely fucked that we're a coinflip away from the US electing someone who will betray the ideals of America's European foreign policy for the last eight decades, because he's friendly with authoritarian shitheels.
I'm honestly kind of sanguine about Ukraine's prospects in a 2nd Trump presidency. Trump is extremely susceptible to flattery and quid pro quo bargains, both of which are things Zelensky can do.
What?
Over the past decade literally the only thing Trump has shown loyalty to other than himself is Russia, and he's completely internalized Ukraine as being central to whatever insane Biden-centric conspiracy world he lives in. Zelensky is an enemy as far as Trump's concerned, and he holds permanent grudges.
Assistance to Ukraine would vanish on day one of a Trump presidency. Assistance to Russia starting on day two wouldn't surprise me in the least, given Trump's take on the whole conflict when the war started.
Also a reminder, it was Zelensky specifically who he tried to extort, and that act got him impeached the first time.
I can't think of a foreign leader that Trump would be nursing a bigger grievance against, than the current President of Ukraine. Trump might forget favors. He rarely forgets slights.
Yes, he allows Graham and Cruz and Rubio to kiss the ring despite blasting him, but as we see repeatedly, that's a political calculus, and he's happy to humiliate and demean them when the mood strikes. It's part of his power play.
That's my point - Zelensky can give him something he wants by rolling over on the whole Burisma and Hunter Biden nonsense. Trump cares more about hurting his local domestic enemies than feuding with a foreign president.
Zelensky has a better chance of getting assassinated because Trump immediately phones up Putin and tells him his location than of ever getting a dollar of extra aid out of Trump.
After the promise of a third Patriot system by Germany, Greece now considers sending one system in return for security assurances by the US against Turkey (Greece has been and is very unwilling to send anything from their military stocks because of the their relationship with Turkey), and Germany is pressuring the US to also send at least another Patriot system.
There'S another Ramstein Meeting on the 26th so maybe some more definite news about more anti-air systems then
While that's awesome of Greece, I think it's an unfortunate reality that the US should no longer be a reliable partner when it comes to a security assurance. If Biden wins? Absolutely. If Trump wins? Erdogan is Trump's buddy, and if he wants to fuck with Greece, well, Trump would probably think that's OK.
It's absolutely fucked that we're a coinflip away from the US electing someone who will betray the ideals of America's European foreign policy for the last eight decades, because he's friendly with authoritarian shitheels.
I'm honestly kind of sanguine about Ukraine's prospects in a 2nd Trump presidency. Trump is extremely susceptible to flattery and quid pro quo bargains, both of which are things Zelensky can do.
What?
Over the past decade literally the only thing Trump has shown loyalty to other than himself is Russia, and he's completely internalized Ukraine as being central to whatever insane Biden-centric conspiracy world he lives in. Zelensky is an enemy as far as Trump's concerned, and he holds permanent grudges.
Assistance to Ukraine would vanish on day one of a Trump presidency. Assistance to Russia starting on day two wouldn't surprise me in the least, given Trump's take on the whole conflict when the war started.
Also a reminder, it was Zelensky specifically who he tried to extort, and that act got him impeached the first time.
I can't think of a foreign leader that Trump would be nursing a bigger grievance against, than the current President of Ukraine. Trump might forget favors. He rarely forgets slights.
Yes, he allows Graham and Cruz and Rubio to kiss the ring despite blasting him, but as we see repeatedly, that's a political calculus, and he's happy to humiliate and demean them when the mood strikes. It's part of his power play.
That's my point - Zelensky can give him something he wants by rolling over on the whole Burisma and Hunter Biden nonsense. Trump cares more about hurting his local domestic enemies than feuding with a foreign president.
Trump cares about pleasing Putin a lot. That's been extremely consistent for years.
After the promise of a third Patriot system by Germany, Greece now considers sending one system in return for security assurances by the US against Turkey (Greece has been and is very unwilling to send anything from their military stocks because of the their relationship with Turkey), and Germany is pressuring the US to also send at least another Patriot system.
There'S another Ramstein Meeting on the 26th so maybe some more definite news about more anti-air systems then
While that's awesome of Greece, I think it's an unfortunate reality that the US should no longer be a reliable partner when it comes to a security assurance. If Biden wins? Absolutely. If Trump wins? Erdogan is Trump's buddy, and if he wants to fuck with Greece, well, Trump would probably think that's OK.
It's absolutely fucked that we're a coinflip away from the US electing someone who will betray the ideals of America's European foreign policy for the last eight decades, because he's friendly with authoritarian shitheels.
I'm honestly kind of sanguine about Ukraine's prospects in a 2nd Trump presidency. Trump is extremely susceptible to flattery and quid pro quo bargains, both of which are things Zelensky can do.
What?
Over the past decade literally the only thing Trump has shown loyalty to other than himself is Russia, and he's completely internalized Ukraine as being central to whatever insane Biden-centric conspiracy world he lives in. Zelensky is an enemy as far as Trump's concerned, and he holds permanent grudges.
Assistance to Ukraine would vanish on day one of a Trump presidency. Assistance to Russia starting on day two wouldn't surprise me in the least, given Trump's take on the whole conflict when the war started.
Also a reminder, it was Zelensky specifically who he tried to extort, and that act got him impeached the first time.
I can't think of a foreign leader that Trump would be nursing a bigger grievance against, than the current President of Ukraine. Trump might forget favors. He rarely forgets slights.
Yes, he allows Graham and Cruz and Rubio to kiss the ring despite blasting him, but as we see repeatedly, that's a political calculus, and he's happy to humiliate and demean them when the mood strikes. It's part of his power play.
That's my point - Zelensky can give him something he wants by rolling over on the whole Burisma and Hunter Biden nonsense. Trump cares more about hurting his local domestic enemies than feuding with a foreign president.
I’m confused what you mean about Burisma and Hunter in this case. If we’re dealing with the situation of Trump’s second term those two bargaining chips are worthless to Trump after he wins.
If he wants to prosecute Hunter, he’ll order his DoJ to do it anyway. He’ll have the full power of the U.S. government in hand to get revenge on his domestic enemies and he couldn’t give less of a shit about Ukraine outside of what they could do to benefit him. So he’ll immediately throw them to the wolves and withdraw the U.S. from NATO without a second thought.
Posts
Second half of this year is when the real consequences of the sanctions are expected to start hitting as well aren't they? As the costs of the short term mitigation efforts come home to roost, maintenance cycles start to edge closer to the disastrous risk categories and the last of the reserves and replacement 'bits of stuff' start to run out.
I'm almost wonder how close China is getting to having to decide how much it really wants to support Russia, or if stepping back and letting things start taking it's course once the cheques start bouncing again is more in their interest that seeing the West/Nato get properly organised in getting production lines going for swift replacements and restocking of Ukraine. If the war in Ukraine ends at the end of this year or beginning of next, that restocking process is going to be a lot more leisurely.
China needs closer ties with Russia going forward if they hope to fight their own wars of conquest any time soon. Right now they need to import energy and food by sea, and getting into a shooting war with the US Navy(and the blockades they can trivially implement) would be immediately disastrous. Russia is an exporter of both and directly borders them by land.
Of all the BRICS countries those two have the only real reason to support each other, especially if one dreams of conquering Europe and the other of conquering Asia.
I'll take "Pretext for Trump to Join the War On Russia's Side" for $1000, Alex
Edit: on a separate tangent, the UK has decided to join in the festivities with a smaller but still pretty substantial package that seems to contain some of the most urgently requested types of equipment: https://mil.in.ua/en/news/uk-announces-the-largest-aid-package-for-ukraine-air-defense-missiles-armored-vehicles-and-boats/
Russia was probably wise to move the rest of the BSF out of Sevastopol. But I'm sure other snacks can be found.
Said it before and I’ll say it again: china’s best play is to give Russia just enough support to keep the war going but not enough to actually win since that way they cause Russia to burn itself the fuck out (making it more reliant on china) while at the same time causing nato to waste resources that could be potentially sent to Taiwan.
After all, getting the latter would be great but making Russia a stunted tributary for the next several decades? That might actually be better.
Pretty much, although if Trump's in the White House next year the US is going to switch sides regardless. Remember, the man praised the invasion as a genius move, and had talked about US military assistance to Russia at points.
Especially as the US bill includes instructions to give Ukraine the full range ATACAMS
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/apr/23/ukraine-war-briefing-long-range-atacms-missiles-on-the-way-says-zelenskiy
That about doubles the range those can go.
If anything Russia-India are tighter than Russia-China. They complement each other quite well in terms of science and economy, and they would compliment each other even better if Russia weren't russo-supremacists and India weren't going full Hindu nationalism atm.
-Antje Jackelén, Archbishop of the Church of Sweden
Also if they had an actual border.
Not having an actual border probably helps as much as anything with their relationship.
Now I'm curious if the usage restrictions are unchanged or not...
https://apnews.com/article/israel-ukraine-aid-tiktok-senate-8fe738b17e5c4b2636bc0de11b2620b7
- John Stuart Mill
Took long enough.
- John Stuart Mill
UK to transfer Paveway IV bombs to Ukraine
The tweet
Edit: Can’t read this morning.
Blah apologies, I missed Netanyahu reference and assumed he was talking about Ukraine since we are in that thread.
Basically expected. I presume some counting was done and golden tickets were handed out for the protest votes.
One of the annoying parts of the sausage making, for sure.
PSN: ShogunGunshow
Origin: ShogunGunshow
I mean, not literally, but you know what I mean. As with many spiffy new capabilities, ideally we'll find out about them when a bunch of Russian shit is abruptly blown up/on fire.
Heck, I'd settle for not mentioning them at all, as long as they're there.
Just shit blowing up deep behind enemy lines or in mainland Russia.
"Was that the F-16's?"
*blank look* "I dunno." *shrug*
Previously committed so I don't think they're part of the current bill, but they're also still tied up in pilot training until sometime this summer/fall.
https://www.defense.gov/News/Transcripts/Transcript/Article/3753454/pentagon-press-secretary-air-force-maj-gen-pat-ryder-holds-a-press-briefing/
"Pentagon Press Secretary Air Force Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder Holds a Press Briefing"
And that's from a 19 hour old article. So they're ready to go.
"What F-16s?"
Politico reports we've already secretly been delivering ATACMS as of last month.
Cool. Although I'm curious to how they expect to deploy the weapon in a meaningful way. The benefits of the Paveway is precision, but it has very low stand-off capability. You can lob it to some extent, but you'd have to be within a few km of the target since it doesn't really have any ability to glide.
-Antje Jackelén, Archbishop of the Church of Sweden
they can't be everywhere
although I don't imagine they'll get too much use until F-16s are in Ukraine
That's my point - Zelensky can give him something he wants by rolling over on the whole Burisma and Hunter Biden nonsense. Trump cares more about hurting his local domestic enemies than feuding with a foreign president.
Trump cares about pleasing Putin a lot. That's been extremely consistent for years.
I’m confused what you mean about Burisma and Hunter in this case. If we’re dealing with the situation of Trump’s second term those two bargaining chips are worthless to Trump after he wins.
If he wants to prosecute Hunter, he’ll order his DoJ to do it anyway. He’ll have the full power of the U.S. government in hand to get revenge on his domestic enemies and he couldn’t give less of a shit about Ukraine outside of what they could do to benefit him. So he’ll immediately throw them to the wolves and withdraw the U.S. from NATO without a second thought.
I'm not sure which would be better.
A continued blank stare.
Or a cartoonishly wide shit-eating grin.