I don’t think hypothetical mayor Pete runs a better campaign. I like me sone Pete but I’m not convinced a gay man doesn’t have as many or more issues courting men in this country that a woman does
And I think a woman in this moment energizes women voters.
I do think somehow Democrat strategists decided going after trump for being a felon wasn’t a wining argument and that bums me the fuck out. Prosecutor vs felon seemed like an easy win?
But honestly the only “I think they would’ve won this thing easily” person imo is Michelle Obama
Pete is a weird case because I've pointed out he made the smart point of that no matter what you run on the Republicans are going to say you're a socialist, and then had no interesting policy positions to run on when he was in the primary. I do think he has made some good moves as the Secretary of Transportation especially in regards to airports.
To me he still doesn't have charisma or an exciting plan that is going to get people motivated to go out and vote.
A new NAACP survey found Republican Donald Trump’s support among young Black men has dwindled with a little more than a week to go before Election Day.
27>21. Harris went up to 59 from 51.
However overall (men and women of all age groups) she's at 73%. Biden got 90. But she's up 10 in the last month.
A new NAACP survey found Republican Donald Trump’s support among young Black men has dwindled with a little more than a week to go before Election Day.
27>21. Harris went up to 59 from 51.
However overall (men and women of all age groups) she's at 73%. Biden got 90. But she's up 10 in the last month.
I don’t think even Biden would’ve gotten 90 again, fundamentally he got a lot of wind in his sails from running against an incumbent trump who had so thoroughly fucked the country with covid and so the threat and stakes were much more vivid in voters minds . I think a lot of that missing percent will still break for Harris, definitely not 90, but I would be shocked if the actual vote number comes to anything less than 75-80%
A new NAACP survey found Republican Donald Trump’s support among young Black men has dwindled with a little more than a week to go before Election Day.
27>21. Harris went up to 59 from 51.
However overall (men and women of all age groups) she's at 73%. Biden got 90. But she's up 10 in the last month.
I don’t think even Biden would’ve gotten 90 again, fundamentally he got a lot of wind in his sails from running against an incumbent trump who had so thoroughly fucked the country with covid and so the threat and stakes were much more vivid in voters minds . I think a lot of that missing percent will still break for Harris, definitely not 90, but I would be shocked if the actual vote number comes to anything less than 75-80%
75-80 would lose a lot of votes from the 2020 margins.
A new NAACP survey found Republican Donald Trump’s support among young Black men has dwindled with a little more than a week to go before Election Day.
27>21. Harris went up to 59 from 51.
However overall (men and women of all age groups) she's at 73%. Biden got 90. But she's up 10 in the last month.
I don’t think even Biden would’ve gotten 90 again, fundamentally he got a lot of wind in his sails from running against an incumbent trump who had so thoroughly fucked the country with covid and so the threat and stakes were much more vivid in voters minds . I think a lot of that missing percent will still break for Harris, definitely not 90, but I would be shocked if the actual vote number comes to anything less than 75-80%
75-80 would lose a lot of votes from the 2020 margins.
I misread that I thought it was black men only. I definitely think she’ll get closer to 90 on the day, especially with higher black women turn out. I know early voting is reading the entrails, but it’s positive in that area
I do think we’ll lose margins in some areas but gain them in others, I mean I hope we do. If not then yeah we’re fucked
Also is that comparing polls to actual turnout? Or polls now to polls from before the 2020 election?
Prohass on
0
AtomikaLive fast and get fucked or whateverRegistered Userregular
Orthogonal to the election:
The Invisible Civil War: A Polarized Mobile Electorate
TL;DR: - Americans are choosing to move to places that already support their politics in astonishing numbers across both parties (but especially Republicans).
Findings of note:
- Conservatives are moving into empty and undeveloped states like Wyoming and the Dakotas by ratios as high as 8:1, with lower but still highly disparate numbers in the more impoverished Southern states
- Except for Georgia, where liberals are drawn to the diversity and abundance of white-collar jobs
- The state with the greatest exodus of conservatives was, unsurprisingly, California, with them sending their disgruntled republicans to states like Arizona, Texas, and Florida.
- If Harris loses Arizona, it may simply be on numbers. Since the last election, more republicans have moved into the state than Biden’s margin of victory in 2020.
- The West Coast, the Great Lakes, and the Northeast are all becoming more blue. The Mountains, the lower Midwest, and the South are turning redder.
A new NAACP survey found Republican Donald Trump’s support among young Black men has dwindled with a little more than a week to go before Election Day.
27>21. Harris went up to 59 from 51.
However overall (men and women of all age groups) she's at 73%. Biden got 90. But she's up 10 in the last month.
I don’t think even Biden would’ve gotten 90 again, fundamentally he got a lot of wind in his sails from running against an incumbent trump who had so thoroughly fucked the country with covid and so the threat and stakes were much more vivid in voters minds . I think a lot of that missing percent will still break for Harris, definitely not 90, but I would be shocked if the actual vote number comes to anything less than 75-80%
75-80 would lose a lot of votes from the 2020 margins.
I misread that I thought it was black men only. I definitely think she’ll get closer to 90 on the day, especially with higher black women turn out. I know early voting is reading the entrails, but it’s positive in that area
I do think we’ll lose margins in some areas but gain them in others, I mean I hope we do. If not then yeah we’re fucked
Also is that comparing polls to actual turnout? Or polls now to polls from before the 2020 election?
Polls now to actual turnout, so a bit...wibbly. (2022 was also about ~92% Dem for the Black vote. If the Republicans were somewhat less racist we'd be fuuuuuuuuucked instead of maybe fucked)
0
syndalisGetting ClassyOn the WallRegistered User, Loves Apple Productsregular
I like Pete. I feel like on the correct timeline and not this insane one we Todash Highway skipped onto, the one where folks like Romney, McCain, Kerry, etc. were presidential candidates, he would fare very well.
His “One Neat Trick” is never running scared from what the right might say, but Harris going on Fox News shows she has no problem doing that either.
Is the Harris campaign messaging actually lands and a decade from now we have reduced our shared hatred of each other from a rolling boil down to a simmer, maybe he would have a chance then.
SW-4158-3990-6116
Let's play Mario Kart or something...
+3
daveNYCWhy universe hate Waspinator?Registered Userregular
The awful consequences of a second Trump presidency are too many to count, let alone dwell on, but right now, in this particular moment before the potential storm, I think the one that’s bothering me the most is also the pettiest: having to hear all the leftwing non-voters say “it’s not MY fault he won, sHe ShOuLd HaVe RuN a BeTtEr CaMpAiGn”
Nah, there’s no better version of this campaign. All the momentum, all the money, all the endorsements, everything that could go right has.
If this isn’t enough to win outright it’s time to start prepping for the worst or looking for softer places to land.
And even if the Harris campaign isn't perfect, I have no idea what they could be doing better given that Trump has gone full mask off Nazi and 40%+ of the voters just don't care, or worse, think it's awesome.
Shut up, Mr. Burton! You were not brought upon this world to get it!
Of course the Harris campaign could be better, come on ya’ll. Theres a big ole abetting genocide marker next to her name. Arguing she couldn’t be better and people don’t have legitimate frustrations or complaints about her is just asking for pages of heated debate and a thread lock. We don’t need to spar for the 100th time about this.
The awful consequences of a second Trump presidency are too many to count, let alone dwell on, but right now, in this particular moment before the potential storm, I think the one that’s bothering me the most is also the pettiest: having to hear all the leftwing non-voters say “it’s not MY fault he won, sHe ShOuLd HaVe RuN a BeTtEr CaMpAiGn”
Nah, there’s no better version of this campaign. All the momentum, all the money, all the endorsements, everything that could go right has.
If this isn’t enough to win outright it’s time to start prepping for the worst or looking for softer places to land.
And even if the Harris campaign isn't perfect, I have no idea what they could be doing better given that Trump has gone full mask off Nazi and 40%+ of the voters just don't care, or worse, think it's awesome.
listening to call in shows in the US, a lot of people just aren't aware of the shit Trump says or does.
The media landscape is incredibly curated; you land in an echo chamber and the bad press will never reach your eyes.
This isn't something that Harris' campaign can fix, imo.
The Americans have utterly fucked their education and information systems, this is going to be a problem for a while.
Harris has had to spin up a presidential campaign in 3 months - 3 months. That she is a contender at all is a testament that she has done all she can. Win or lose, things were looking pretty dark in August with the constant howling of the press at Biden's gaff-machine degeneration. She turned that around.
I think the biggest problem is that everyone working in the press sector is shortsighted. Partially they are like everyone, forced to think short term with their nose to the grindstone. Partially they don't believe on face eating leopards.
If pressed they will probably know Trump will do to the press what all his buddies (Putin etc.) do to the press. Knowledge != beliefs.
But I'm willing to bet that apart from the MBA type managers, most people working in the press (journalist and other) will be highly educated liberals that think they should not impose their own bias on what they think their biased reader/viewership wants.
And their MBA type managers tell them that the bias should be a lot to the right.
(I base that partially on research in my home country of Belgium)
Well we need a bloody Woodward and Bernstein expose of the utter danger and stupidity of Trump. Not the 'both-sides bad but not Republicans actually' cuddling Trump crap we have.
You guys are way, way over-estimating how difficult it is to break a country the size of the U.S. If a Civil War isn't going to do it, this ain't. A decline and economic crash? Social instability? Riots? Very possibly.
I don't think less of anyone trying to take care of their safety, or family, but cutting and leaving is simply not an option for most of us. I have an immigrant wife who's halfway through phase 1 of a I-130. Giving up on America entirely is exactly what these cowards want.
"Past performance is no guarantee of future results"
The context of a Trump presidency is an Executive branch which is promising to use it's power to specifically engage in collective punishments of states the dictator-in-charge doesn't like for whatever inane reason, and to empower a minority group to enforce religiously-motivated doctrine against the population. This is going to happen against a backdrop of the targeted states being more populous, and arguably financially independent of the greater United States barring the legal uncertainties of succession.
Saying "the civil war didn't break up the country" is...frankly wrong. The civil was was explicitly the country breaking up and then being forcefully reunified by force of arms. But it doesn't have to get that extreme: systems can remain broken for a very long time - i.e. you could've been born lived and died through the decline of the Roman empire without even really realizing it was declining, because a decline needs a reference point - the rise of some other power structure can also be happening at the same time and seem right and normal. Historical narratives get assigned retrospectively.
A very plausible scenario is due to incompetence and disobedience, the Federal government loses its ability to project authority over the US, and the states slowly start acting more and more like independent entities or separate federations. We're already seeing he degradation of one of the benchmarks of a singular nation-state - freedom of movement within the borders - in the form of the various laws being passed to try and enforce the abortion restrictions. Certainly if that trend continues, at some point we could reasonably expect it to become a de facto reciprocal situation - i.e. if you live in a pro-choice state, you probably have some pretty strong opinions on women being denied entry at the border by their own state, or conversely being "extradited" back to their home state. That situation can expand.
Unsurprisingly her "Killing in the Name" RATM reaction is also quite cringe
As an alternative, I'd recommend The Charismatic Voice. Similar thing - professional opera singer decides to start a music reaction channel.
It does take a bit of a twist though - she starts getting really into heavy metal, and her channel blows up, so she starts being able to do interviews with some of the singers. And she realises that there's a lack of science behind techniques to produce alternative vocal styles - there's a body of research behind traditional opera singing, and some of the more exotic vocal techniques like Nepalese throat singing, but virtually nothing behind the various growls and vocal fry of heavy metal singing. Pretty much everything "known" is based on hypothesis and educated guesses, rather than empirical study.
So she's teaming up with a university and some heavy metal singers to produce some of the first ever peer reviewed studies of what's actually going on in the vocal tracts when they do their growls. https://youtu.be/pIqSo60D8Yk
Feel free to support her vocal research!
Of course the Harris campaign could be better, come on ya’ll. Theres a big ole abetting genocide marker next to her name. Arguing she couldn’t be better and people don’t have legitimate frustrations or complaints about her is just asking for pages of heated debate and a thread lock. We don’t need to spar for the 100th time about this.
That's a way she could be better on policy. Ignoring the gruesome human toll for the moment, as far as winning the campaign goes, with the crapsack state of polling there is zero way to tell if having a different position on Israel would gain Harris more votes than it loses, and where those votes would be. The candidates couldn't be more different and the stakes couldn't be higher, yet it's still an incredibly tight race, at least as far as anyone can figure, so the idea that 'this one policy change' would definitely shift the EC needle for Harris is just crazy talk; because those voters are fundamentally irrational. Its one group of people who were around for Trump's Muslim ban in his first term, and going 'yeah, but Gaza', and balancing them against another group of irrational voters (who definitely exist) who will be thinking 'yeah, he defended the whole "Jews will not replace us." march, but Israel. There ain't no magic policy path that's going to guarantee victory here.
Shut up, Mr. Burton! You were not brought upon this world to get it!
+13
FencingsaxIt is difficult to get a man to understand, when his salary depends upon his not understandingGNU Terry PratchettRegistered Userregular
Part of the problem is we don't actually know how tight the race is. We don"t know the actual demographic splits. We are reading shadows on the cave wall here.
Pete is a weird case because I've pointed out he made the smart point of that no matter what you run on the Republicans are going to say you're a socialist, and then had no interesting policy positions to run on when he was in the primary. I do think he has made some good moves as the Secretary of Transportation especially in regards to airports.
To me he still doesn't have charisma or an exciting plan that is going to get people motivated to go out and vote.
Yeah, had the democratic party picked Manchin, thank god he didn't have a chance in hell. It's guaranteed that the GOP would be screaming about him being the most radical liberal candidate that ever libbed. It's gotten to the point that when prominent republicans word vomit out communist, liberal, progressive and socialist, they've effectively said nothing because those fuckers don't really understand what those words mean.
Part of the problem is we don't actually know how tight the race is. We don"t know the actual demographic splits. We are reading shadows on the cave wall here.
It's tighter than it has any damn right to be. I'd love to be wrong, but 2016 and 2020 were tight, and there's nothing out there indicating that this year is going to be a Harris blowout.
Shut up, Mr. Burton! You were not brought upon this world to get it!
Pete is a weird case because I've pointed out he made the smart point of that no matter what you run on the Republicans are going to say you're a socialist, and then had no interesting policy positions to run on when he was in the primary. I do think he has made some good moves as the Secretary of Transportation especially in regards to airports.
To me he still doesn't have charisma or an exciting plan that is going to get people motivated to go out and vote.
Yeah, had the democratic party picked Manchin, thank god he didn't have a chance in hell. It's guaranteed that the GOP would be screaming about him being the most radical liberal candidate that ever libbed. It's gotten to the point that when prominent republicans word vomit out communist, liberal, progressive and socialist, they've effectively said nothing because those fuckers don't really understand what those words mean.
You forgot Marxist.
I'd love if when Trump calls Harris that, just once, a reporter would ask "What's Marxism, and how does it apply to Harris?", and get an honest answer. (yeah yeah, Trump and honesty)
Also, Trump loves calling her a fascist too.
"Can you explain how she can be a Marxist and a fascist?"
If we are talking which campaign is favored now, probably the one that doesn't have people leaking that their internals are awful:
Republican strategist Margaret Hoover said Republicans have told her that campaign aides for former President Donald Trump have “concern” over internal polling.
Trump is locked in a tight race with Vice President Kamala Harris, as polls show the two virtually tied in several key swing states. On Wednesday’s edition of The Source on CNN, host Kaitlan Collins asked the veteran of two Republican presidential campaigns what data she would be paying attention to.
"I think if you’re the Trump campaign, you’re not looking at CNN’s numbers. You’re looking at your own internal, and I honestly think, I think their internals are actually giving them pause because I think they’re seeing even more– look, they do have a lot of resources for polling more than public media companies have. And they’re probably seeing the same things that you guys are talking about, which is that there’s real groundswell in the early vote. There’s real enthusiasm, which is hard to measure.
I have heard from Republicans that there is concern at the Trump campaign amongst the operatives that actually really do know the political wherewithal, the turnout and enthusiasm numbers aren’t where they need to be."
Have to play for keeps anyways, but things are looking grim over there.
If we are talking which campaign is favored now, probably the one that doesn't have people leaking that their internals are awful:
Republican strategist Margaret Hoover said Republicans have told her that campaign aides for former President Donald Trump have “concern” over internal polling.
Trump is locked in a tight race with Vice President Kamala Harris, as polls show the two virtually tied in several key swing states. On Wednesday’s edition of The Source on CNN, host Kaitlan Collins asked the veteran of two Republican presidential campaigns what data she would be paying attention to.
"I think if you’re the Trump campaign, you’re not looking at CNN’s numbers. You’re looking at your own internal, and I honestly think, I think their internals are actually giving them pause because I think they’re seeing even more– look, they do have a lot of resources for polling more than public media companies have. And they’re probably seeing the same things that you guys are talking about, which is that there’s real groundswell in the early vote. There’s real enthusiasm, which is hard to measure.
I have heard from Republicans that there is concern at the Trump campaign amongst the operatives that actually really do know the political wherewithal, the turnout and enthusiasm numbers aren’t where they need to be."
Have to play for keeps anyways, but things are looking grim over there.
The awful consequences of a second Trump presidency are too many to count, let alone dwell on, but right now, in this particular moment before the potential storm, I think the one that’s bothering me the most is also the pettiest: having to hear all the leftwing non-voters say “it’s not MY fault he won, sHe ShOuLd HaVe RuN a BeTtEr CaMpAiGn”
Nah, there’s no better version of this campaign. All the momentum, all the money, all the endorsements, everything that could go right has.
If this isn’t enough to win outright it’s time to start prepping for the worst or looking for softer places to land.
And even if the Harris campaign isn't perfect, I have no idea what they could be doing better given that Trump has gone full mask off Nazi and 40%+ of the voters just don't care, or worse, think it's awesome.
listening to call in shows in the US, a lot of people just aren't aware of the shit Trump says or does.
The media landscape is incredibly curated; you land in an echo chamber and the bad press will never reach your eyes.
This isn't something that Harris' campaign can fix, imo.
The Americans have utterly fucked their education and information systems, this is going to be a problem for a while.
Yeah I think this is more true than we realize. I am friends with a lot of Republicans and religious folks who post about Trump. And it is always about shit like unity and love and wtf how is this possible? I guess you can edit down all the shit he says and make it sound good in a sound bite. And when I post the full speech or whatever they don't watch it.
If we are talking which campaign is favored now, probably the one that doesn't have people leaking that their internals are awful:
Republican strategist Margaret Hoover said Republicans have told her that campaign aides for former President Donald Trump have “concern” over internal polling.
Trump is locked in a tight race with Vice President Kamala Harris, as polls show the two virtually tied in several key swing states. On Wednesday’s edition of The Source on CNN, host Kaitlan Collins asked the veteran of two Republican presidential campaigns what data she would be paying attention to.
"I think if you’re the Trump campaign, you’re not looking at CNN’s numbers. You’re looking at your own internal, and I honestly think, I think their internals are actually giving them pause because I think they’re seeing even more– look, they do have a lot of resources for polling more than public media companies have. And they’re probably seeing the same things that you guys are talking about, which is that there’s real groundswell in the early vote. There’s real enthusiasm, which is hard to measure.
I have heard from Republicans that there is concern at the Trump campaign amongst the operatives that actually really do know the political wherewithal, the turnout and enthusiasm numbers aren’t where they need to be."
Have to play for keeps anyways, but things are looking grim over there.
If men stay at home, Kamala is president. It’s that simple.
If you want a vision of the future if you don't vote, imagine Kamala's voice cackling, forever.
Men need to GO VOTE NOW.
lol. LOL. lmao.
Christ I hate the way this gets contextualized. "Men need to X or Y because obviously we're all men".
Fuck off Charlie Kirk you fucking weirdo. Real men aren't assholes.
For some reason I get Charlie Kirk clips on Tiktok from time to time. If I were one of the students he is talking to I would just go up and punch him in the face. Just such an incredible asshole.
“And my people told me about four weeks ago, I was saying, ‘No, I want to protect the people. I want to protect the women of our country. I want to protect the women.’
“‘Sir, please don’t say that.’
“They said, ‘We think it’s, it’s very inappropriate for you to say.’
“I pay these guys a lot of money. Can you believe it? Well, I’m going to do it whether the women like it or not. I’m going to protect them .”
... says the man with a history of doing various things to women when they don't want him to.
This is just completely disgusting. How can any woman vote for this guy?
+17
lonelyahavaCall me Ahava ~~She/Her~~Move to New ZealandRegistered Userregular
Adding in the 31,599 absentee ballots, the combined total as of 8:41 AM today was 137,960!!
"In 2022, about 55,500 people voted early over 10 days. As of Monday, over 106,000 people have voted early with six days remaining."
"Sussex County has seen the highest early voting turnout, with almost 55,000 people casting ballot through Tuesday. New Castle County is seeing the second highest turnout behind Sussex, with nearly 33,000 ballots cast over the first five days."
“And my people told me about four weeks ago, I was saying, ‘No, I want to protect the people. I want to protect the women of our country. I want to protect the women.’
“‘Sir, please don’t say that.’
“They said, ‘We think it’s, it’s very inappropriate for you to say.’
“I pay these guys a lot of money. Can you believe it? Well, I’m going to do it whether the women like it or not. I’m going to protect them .”
... says the man with a history of doing various things to women when they don't want him to.
This is just completely disgusting. How can any woman vote for this guy?
I'm almost as baffled by that as that he seems to have ~10% of the black vote.
He literally called for black people to be executed after they were eventually exonerated. Even if they do think eggs were cheaper or whatever, you've got to be astonishingly low-information to think that Trump and those backing him aren't the actual distilled essence of Ofay.
+16
daveNYCWhy universe hate Waspinator?Registered Userregular
Crazification factor is 27%, so those aren't bad numbers really.
Shut up, Mr. Burton! You were not brought upon this world to get it!
From what I can tell from a coworker who has black relatives that voted Trump, they identified more with 'rich upper class' more than 'african american'.
I'm wondering if it also applies to other Trump voting minorities.
Posts
And I think a woman in this moment energizes women voters.
I do think somehow Democrat strategists decided going after trump for being a felon wasn’t a wining argument and that bums me the fuck out. Prosecutor vs felon seemed like an easy win?
But honestly the only “I think they would’ve won this thing easily” person imo is Michelle Obama
Or Barack in a world where he can run again,
To me he still doesn't have charisma or an exciting plan that is going to get people motivated to go out and vote.
{Twitter, Everybody's doing it. }{Writing and Story Blog}
If we’re lucky they choke to death on it
https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2024/10/28/2024-elections-live-coverage-updates-analysis/aarp-survey-00185978
27>21. Harris went up to 59 from 51.
However overall (men and women of all age groups) she's at 73%. Biden got 90. But she's up 10 in the last month.
I don’t think even Biden would’ve gotten 90 again, fundamentally he got a lot of wind in his sails from running against an incumbent trump who had so thoroughly fucked the country with covid and so the threat and stakes were much more vivid in voters minds . I think a lot of that missing percent will still break for Harris, definitely not 90, but I would be shocked if the actual vote number comes to anything less than 75-80%
75-80 would lose a lot of votes from the 2020 margins.
I misread that I thought it was black men only. I definitely think she’ll get closer to 90 on the day, especially with higher black women turn out. I know early voting is reading the entrails, but it’s positive in that area
I do think we’ll lose margins in some areas but gain them in others, I mean I hope we do. If not then yeah we’re fucked
Also is that comparing polls to actual turnout? Or polls now to polls from before the 2020 election?
The Invisible Civil War: A Polarized Mobile Electorate
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/10/30/upshot/voters-moving-polarization.html
TL;DR: - Americans are choosing to move to places that already support their politics in astonishing numbers across both parties (but especially Republicans).
Findings of note:
- Conservatives are moving into empty and undeveloped states like Wyoming and the Dakotas by ratios as high as 8:1, with lower but still highly disparate numbers in the more impoverished Southern states
- Except for Georgia, where liberals are drawn to the diversity and abundance of white-collar jobs
- The state with the greatest exodus of conservatives was, unsurprisingly, California, with them sending their disgruntled republicans to states like Arizona, Texas, and Florida.
- If Harris loses Arizona, it may simply be on numbers. Since the last election, more republicans have moved into the state than Biden’s margin of victory in 2020.
- The West Coast, the Great Lakes, and the Northeast are all becoming more blue. The Mountains, the lower Midwest, and the South are turning redder.
https://eriecountypa.gov/concerning-erie-county-mail-ballots/
Polls now to actual turnout, so a bit...wibbly. (2022 was also about ~92% Dem for the Black vote. If the Republicans were somewhat less racist we'd be fuuuuuuuuucked instead of maybe fucked)
His “One Neat Trick” is never running scared from what the right might say, but Harris going on Fox News shows she has no problem doing that either.
Is the Harris campaign messaging actually lands and a decade from now we have reduced our shared hatred of each other from a rolling boil down to a simmer, maybe he would have a chance then.
Let's play Mario Kart or something...
And even if the Harris campaign isn't perfect, I have no idea what they could be doing better given that Trump has gone full mask off Nazi and 40%+ of the voters just don't care, or worse, think it's awesome.
listening to call in shows in the US, a lot of people just aren't aware of the shit Trump says or does.
The media landscape is incredibly curated; you land in an echo chamber and the bad press will never reach your eyes.
This isn't something that Harris' campaign can fix, imo.
The Americans have utterly fucked their education and information systems, this is going to be a problem for a while.
If pressed they will probably know Trump will do to the press what all his buddies (Putin etc.) do to the press. Knowledge != beliefs.
But I'm willing to bet that apart from the MBA type managers, most people working in the press (journalist and other) will be highly educated liberals that think they should not impose their own bias on what they think their biased reader/viewership wants.
And their MBA type managers tell them that the bias should be a lot to the right.
(I base that partially on research in my home country of Belgium)
"Past performance is no guarantee of future results"
The context of a Trump presidency is an Executive branch which is promising to use it's power to specifically engage in collective punishments of states the dictator-in-charge doesn't like for whatever inane reason, and to empower a minority group to enforce religiously-motivated doctrine against the population. This is going to happen against a backdrop of the targeted states being more populous, and arguably financially independent of the greater United States barring the legal uncertainties of succession.
Saying "the civil war didn't break up the country" is...frankly wrong. The civil was was explicitly the country breaking up and then being forcefully reunified by force of arms. But it doesn't have to get that extreme: systems can remain broken for a very long time - i.e. you could've been born lived and died through the decline of the Roman empire without even really realizing it was declining, because a decline needs a reference point - the rise of some other power structure can also be happening at the same time and seem right and normal. Historical narratives get assigned retrospectively.
A very plausible scenario is due to incompetence and disobedience, the Federal government loses its ability to project authority over the US, and the states slowly start acting more and more like independent entities or separate federations. We're already seeing he degradation of one of the benchmarks of a singular nation-state - freedom of movement within the borders - in the form of the various laws being passed to try and enforce the abortion restrictions. Certainly if that trend continues, at some point we could reasonably expect it to become a de facto reciprocal situation - i.e. if you live in a pro-choice state, you probably have some pretty strong opinions on women being denied entry at the border by their own state, or conversely being "extradited" back to their home state. That situation can expand.
It does take a bit of a twist though - she starts getting really into heavy metal, and her channel blows up, so she starts being able to do interviews with some of the singers. And she realises that there's a lack of science behind techniques to produce alternative vocal styles - there's a body of research behind traditional opera singing, and some of the more exotic vocal techniques like Nepalese throat singing, but virtually nothing behind the various growls and vocal fry of heavy metal singing. Pretty much everything "known" is based on hypothesis and educated guesses, rather than empirical study.
So she's teaming up with a university and some heavy metal singers to produce some of the first ever peer reviewed studies of what's actually going on in the vocal tracts when they do their growls.
Feel free to support her vocal research!
To keep it more topical, here's her reaction to John Farnham's You're the Voice.
Edit - swapped out the kickstarter video for the research background one. Grabbed the wrong one first time.
That's a way she could be better on policy. Ignoring the gruesome human toll for the moment, as far as winning the campaign goes, with the crapsack state of polling there is zero way to tell if having a different position on Israel would gain Harris more votes than it loses, and where those votes would be. The candidates couldn't be more different and the stakes couldn't be higher, yet it's still an incredibly tight race, at least as far as anyone can figure, so the idea that 'this one policy change' would definitely shift the EC needle for Harris is just crazy talk; because those voters are fundamentally irrational. Its one group of people who were around for Trump's Muslim ban in his first term, and going 'yeah, but Gaza', and balancing them against another group of irrational voters (who definitely exist) who will be thinking 'yeah, he defended the whole "Jews will not replace us." march, but Israel. There ain't no magic policy path that's going to guarantee victory here.
Yeah, had the democratic party picked Manchin, thank god he didn't have a chance in hell. It's guaranteed that the GOP would be screaming about him being the most radical liberal candidate that ever libbed. It's gotten to the point that when prominent republicans word vomit out communist, liberal, progressive and socialist, they've effectively said nothing because those fuckers don't really understand what those words mean.
It's tighter than it has any damn right to be. I'd love to be wrong, but 2016 and 2020 were tight, and there's nothing out there indicating that this year is going to be a Harris blowout.
You forgot Marxist.
I'd love if when Trump calls Harris that, just once, a reporter would ask "What's Marxism, and how does it apply to Harris?", and get an honest answer. (yeah yeah, Trump and honesty)
Also, Trump loves calling her a fascist too.
"Can you explain how she can be a Marxist and a fascist?"
It's 80's buzzword shit.
Have to play for keeps anyways, but things are looking grim over there.
EDIT: And Charlie Kirk, the man co-running Trump's GOTV effort with Elon, had this to say:
https://x.com/charliekirk11/status/1851717440998453751
lol. LOL. lmao.
Christ I hate the way this gets contextualized. "Men need to X or Y because obviously we're all men".
Fuck off Charlie Kirk you fucking weirdo. Real men aren't assholes.
These mother fuckers would 100 percent be burning witches if they could
I mean stands to reason that women being happy or joyful around them might be a foreign concept.
Yeah I think this is more true than we realize. I am friends with a lot of Republicans and religious folks who post about Trump. And it is always about shit like unity and love and wtf how is this possible? I guess you can edit down all the shit he says and make it sound good in a sound bite. And when I post the full speech or whatever they don't watch it.
God help us if we elect this literal clown.
For some reason I get Charlie Kirk clips on Tiktok from time to time. If I were one of the students he is talking to I would just go up and punch him in the face. Just such an incredible asshole.
However, he continued to dig himself into a massive hole with women.
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/donald-trump-protect-women-green-bay-rally_n_6722f2d1e4b02f5ab1d23299
... says the man with a history of doing various things to women when they don't want him to.
This is just completely disgusting. How can any woman vote for this guy?
https://www.delawarepublic.org/politics-government/2024-10-29/early-voting-numbers-continue-to-surge-in-delaware-voters-say-whats-driving-them
Adding in the 31,599 absentee ballots, the combined total as of 8:41 AM today was 137,960!!
"In 2022, about 55,500 people voted early over 10 days. As of Monday, over 106,000 people have voted early with six days remaining."
"Sussex County has seen the highest early voting turnout, with almost 55,000 people casting ballot through Tuesday. New Castle County is seeing the second highest turnout behind Sussex, with nearly 33,000 ballots cast over the first five days."
There's only 3 counties in the state.
Democrats Abroad! || Vote From Abroad
I'm almost as baffled by that as that he seems to have ~10% of the black vote.
He literally called for black people to be executed after they were eventually exonerated. Even if they do think eggs were cheaper or whatever, you've got to be astonishingly low-information to think that Trump and those backing him aren't the actual distilled essence of Ofay.
I'm wondering if it also applies to other Trump voting minorities.
WoW
Dear Satan.....