The easiest thing to do is to just head to Mobilize.US it's a sort of clearinghouse of campaign and non-profit events. It won't have everything going on but it'll have a lot and there should be a lot of "Final Stretch Canvass" options.
And thanks for getting out there!
Do what you can to elect Harris/Walz and downticket Dem candidates in your area by doorknocking, phonebanking, or postcarding: https://www.mobilize.us/
The easiest thing to do is to just head to Mobilize.US it's a sort of clearinghouse of campaign and non-profit events. It won't have everything going on but it'll have a lot and there should be a lot of "Final Stretch Canvass" options.
And thanks for getting out there!
Thanks I don't want to be loaded into a trailer and find out I'm working for Musk.
Oh also while driving today I noticed something funny: a guy who'd had an RFK sign out months ago and then removed it when RFK endorsed Trump and quit the race has now put the sign back up. Here's hoping RFK manages to thread the needle on appealing to people in the way that hurts the Trump campaign the most.
Do what you can to elect Harris/Walz and downticket Dem candidates in your area by doorknocking, phonebanking, or postcarding: https://www.mobilize.us/
So as someone who avoids most media these days: has Trump's stunt with the truck succeeded in snatching the spotlight off Biden's latest gaffe and putting it back on himself and the rest of the garbage?
So as someone who avoids most media these days: has Trump's stunt with the truck succeeded in snatching the spotlight off Biden's latest gaffe and putting it back on himself and the rest of the garbage?
I am not sure if a campaigned branded garbage truck has ever been attempted before. But a garbage man in his garbage truck does seem on brand.
Did a democracy in NY yesterday. For my entire family, it’s +3 Harris/Walz in NY, +2 in NJ, and +1 in NV. Still working on my gf’s parents. We’ve moved them from voting for Trump in PA to not voting, but still have hope we can convince them to vote for Harris/Walz over the weekend when they visit while my gf runs the marathon.
Then the marathon of election lawsuits begins. I’m honestly kind of tired already but will get the adrenaline rush to do my tiny part of the legal battle. My family and friends are the best, though, and have already stocked my favorite food to get me through (plus we’re making a lot of homemade ice cream ahead of time).
Honestly I think EV numbers and dirt if actual news is gunna drown out most noise. Things that normally would get a few days life will fade with “actual” news
On that note, I keep seeing encouraging gender gap stuff in EV. But does anyone know if there is typically a gender gap in EV? Is this years bigger or smaller?
Celebrating 55-44 seems foolish if it’s normally 56-42
So as someone who avoids most media these days: has Trump's stunt with the truck succeeded in snatching the spotlight off Biden's latest gaffe and putting it back on himself and the rest of the garbage?
Bidens (made up) gaffe only lasted a few minutes outside of fox
Honestly I think EV numbers and dirt if actual news is gunna drown out most noise. Things that normally would get a few days life will fade with “actual” news
On that note, I keep seeing encouraging gender gap stuff in EV. But does anyone know if there is typically a gender gap in EV? Is this years bigger or smaller?
Celebrating 55-44 seems foolish if it’s normally 56-42
Honestly I am not sure we know the last few election cycles have been anything but normal. GOP used to have massive early voting advantage because it was mostly old people then that started to switch then covid happened then the whole roe v wade thing. I am not sure anybody has a good feel of what is "normal" and what is "good" at this point. Just go and vote and get others to vote it is the most and least we can do.
I really don't get the strategy with the garbage truck. All the news was focusing on the Madison Square Garden garbage joke, then Biden manages to flip the headlines not even a news cycle later, heck even 24h, Trump pulls this garbage truck stunt which shifts the focus back to him. I know Trump always wants all the attention but it's the final week, let things breathe.
At this point I'm expecting a scandal a day and by election day we won't even remember what happened that morning.
Also high visibility vest and orange skin is a big fashion no no. Even the vest is bad for any photo ops, it throws off any lighting.
If I had more respect for the competence of his campaign people I’d say it looks like an SEO thing aimed at making sure that when people google ‘trump garbage comment’ they get a bunch of stories about a photo op in a garbage truck and the stories about all the racist stuff at his neonazi rally get pushed to page 2 of the search results.
But as-is it’s just as likely to be something he insisted on doing just because he wanted to sit in a big truck again because he’s a four year old whose brain is mostly plaque now
I think it’s steering into the racism. He’s the garbage man taking out all the garbage.
Remember, to his ardent supporters nothing that was said at MSG Nazi Rally v2.0 was problematic.
The good and the bad news is always that the average American voter is an incoherent weirdo who does not know anything about either candidate. The true base is not that large for any candidate. Even people who vote R or D 20 times in a row will sometimes swap just because. I'm legitimately hopeful that enormous doorknocking campaigns move the needle by a couple percentage points just by like telling people in person to google Project 2025.
Do what you can to elect Harris/Walz and downticket Dem candidates in your area by doorknocking, phonebanking, or postcarding: https://www.mobilize.us/
So as someone who avoids most media these days: has Trump's stunt with the truck succeeded in snatching the spotlight off Biden's latest gaffe and putting it back on himself and the rest of the garbage?
Bidens (made up) gaffe only lasted a few minutes outside of fox
Yeah, Biden seemingly didn’t the traction people feared and I’ve barely heard anything about Trump getting to drive his big boy garbage truck.
Honestly I think EV numbers and dirt if actual news is gunna drown out most noise. Things that normally would get a few days life will fade with “actual” news
On that note, I keep seeing encouraging gender gap stuff in EV. But does anyone know if there is typically a gender gap in EV? Is this years bigger or smaller?
Celebrating 55-44 seems foolish if it’s normally 56-42
It varies by state. Early voting does change every cycle somewhat. Compared to 2020 it's about a point or two more F than normal. The problem is that the M/F divide is the largest it's been in possibly a century. So if the electorate is normally 52F/48M that's going to have some pretty swingy effects that you normally wouldn't see.
I really don't get the strategy with the garbage truck. All the news was focusing on the Madison Square Garden garbage joke, then Biden manages to flip the headlines not even a news cycle later, heck even 24h, Trump pulls this garbage truck stunt which shifts the focus back to him. I know Trump always wants all the attention but it's the final week, let things breathe.
At this point I'm expecting a scandal a day and by election day we won't even remember what happened that morning.
Also high visibility vest and orange skin is a big fashion no no. Even the vest is bad for any photo ops, it throws off any lighting.
If I had more respect for the competence of his campaign people I’d say it looks like an SEO thing aimed at making sure that when people google ‘trump garbage comment’ they get a bunch of stories about a photo op in a garbage truck and the stories about all the racist stuff at his neonazi rally get pushed to page 2 of the search results.
But as-is it’s just as likely to be something he insisted on doing just because he wanted to sit in a big truck again because he’s a four year old whose brain is mostly plaque now
I think it’s steering into the racism. He’s the garbage man taking out all the garbage.
Remember, to his ardent supporters nothing that was said at MSG Nazi Rally v2.0 was problematic.
His ardent Puerto Rican supporters disagree.
They love him. He loves them. He's done so much for them.
So as someone who avoids most media these days: has Trump's stunt with the truck succeeded in snatching the spotlight off Biden's latest gaffe and putting it back on himself and the rest of the garbage?
Bidens (made up) gaffe only lasted a few minutes outside of fox
There were two stories about it "above the fold" so to speak on CNN all day yesterday. Made A1 of today's NYT. Real voters don't care, but real voters don't care about lots of things until the news signals to them that it's important.
The idea that your vote is a moral statement about you or who you vote for is some backwards ass libertarian nonsense. Your vote is about society. Vote to protect the vulnerable.
Ordinarily I pay no mind to the WSJ Editorial Board. But today's headline made me laugh, and also made me feel validated for the vote I cast in September:
So as someone who avoids most media these days: has Trump's stunt with the truck succeeded in snatching the spotlight off Biden's latest gaffe and putting it back on himself and the rest of the garbage?
I am not sure if a campaigned branded garbage truck has ever been attempted before. But a garbage man in his garbage truck does seem on brand.
Fixed that for you.
0
FencingsaxIt is difficult to get a man to understand, when his salary depends upon his not understandingGNU Terry PratchettRegistered Userregular
Part of the problem is we don't actually know how tight the race is. We don"t know the actual demographic splits. We are reading shadows on the cave wall here.
It's tighter than it has any damn right to be. I'd love to be wrong, but 2016 and 2020 were tight, and there's nothing out there indicating that this year is going to be a Harris blowout.
No, we don't actually know how tight it is, because polling is garbage. It's basically just vibes with numbers.
Unless you mean he should be in prison right now. Then yes.
Honestly I think EV numbers and dirt if actual news is gunna drown out most noise. Things that normally would get a few days life will fade with “actual” news
On that note, I keep seeing encouraging gender gap stuff in EV. But does anyone know if there is typically a gender gap in EV? Is this years bigger or smaller?
Celebrating 55-44 seems foolish if it’s normally 56-42
It varies by state. Early voting does change every cycle somewhat. Compared to 2020 it's about a point or two more F than normal. The problem is that the M/F divide is the largest it's been in possibly a century. So if the electorate is normally 52F/48M that's going to have some pretty swingy effects that you normally wouldn't see.
Yeah, the biggest problem is that early voting composition varies wildly year to year (within states) and between states, with little predictive power of the overall electorate. If I remember correctly, 95% of early voters would have voted anyway, so it’s almost entirely shifting around when people vote, not if they vote.
That said, even a 1% uptick in female voters to male voters would make things a blowout for Harris. That’s how gender polarized things are. So strong turnout among women during midterms since 2016 (with possible acceleration over time) could be a decisive factor in Harris over performing polling.
We don't really have much gender data, but what little we have I would say is a little behind 2020. But it seems extremely likely that Republican votes (which tend to be more male) are shifting to early this cycle after being openly hostile to early voting in 2020. And that's even before getting into the confounding issue of race (more white women voting isn't necessarily good for Harris).
So, as everyone keeps saying: You can't tell anything from early voting patterns. I know we're all desperate for news, but it just isn't there.
So as someone who avoids most media these days: has Trump's stunt with the truck succeeded in snatching the spotlight off Biden's latest gaffe and putting it back on himself and the rest of the garbage?
I am not sure if a campaigned branded garbage truck has ever been attempted before. But a garbage man in his garbage truck does seem on brand.
Fixed that for you.
Yeah I was going to say, I'm feeling uncomfortable with maligning sanitation workers. They do an important physical job which serves the community.
Pretty wild GOP is steering full steam into the iceberg and the press is reporting on what a mumbling old man (who is not running for office) said
If this era has proved anything, it's that if you just say what you're going to do all the time and double down people just stop reporting on it because it's not secret.
We don't really have much gender data, but what little we have I would say is a little behind 2020. But it seems extremely likely that Republican votes (which tend to be more male) are shifting to early this cycle after being openly hostile to early voting in 2020. And that's even before getting into the confounding issue of race (more white women voting isn't necessarily good for Harris).
So, as everyone keeps saying: You can't tell anything from early voting patterns. I know we're all desperate for news, but it just isn't there.
See this is what I’d like sources in because everything else I’m seeing says the opposite
Ev huge on the gender gap, right wing influencers crying about it etc
Pretty wild GOP is steering full steam into the iceberg and the press is reporting on what a mumbling old man (who is not running for office) said
If this era has proved anything, it's that if you just say what you're going to do all the time and double down people just stop reporting on it because it's not secret.
IMO it's more a matter of follow the money. The Owners have their agenda (and their whole hand on the scale), as we've seen when their employees try to go against it.
Pretty wild GOP is steering full steam into the iceberg and the press is reporting on what a mumbling old man (who is not running for office) said
If this era has proved anything, it's that if you just say what you're going to do all the time and double down people just stop reporting on it because it's not secret.
If we are talking which campaign is favored now, probably the one that doesn't have people leaking that their internals are awful:
Republican strategist Margaret Hoover said Republicans have told her that campaign aides for former President Donald Trump have “concern” over internal polling.
Trump is locked in a tight race with Vice President Kamala Harris, as polls show the two virtually tied in several key swing states. On Wednesday’s edition of The Source on CNN, host Kaitlan Collins asked the veteran of two Republican presidential campaigns what data she would be paying attention to.
"I think if you’re the Trump campaign, you’re not looking at CNN’s numbers. You’re looking at your own internal, and I honestly think, I think their internals are actually giving them pause because I think they’re seeing even more– look, they do have a lot of resources for polling more than public media companies have. And they’re probably seeing the same things that you guys are talking about, which is that there’s real groundswell in the early vote. There’s real enthusiasm, which is hard to measure.
I have heard from Republicans that there is concern at the Trump campaign amongst the operatives that actually really do know the political wherewithal, the turnout and enthusiasm numbers aren’t where they need to be."
Have to play for keeps anyways, but things are looking grim over there.
If men stay at home, Kamala is president. It’s that simple.
If you want a vision of the future if you don't vote, imagine Kamala's voice cackling, forever.
Men need to GO VOTE NOW.
lol. LOL. lmao.
Yeah, this is what I based my predictions on how 2020 and 2022 would go on. If they're complaining about the election being rigged, they're probably going to lose. I don't think I've seen as much of that this time, which seems like they think they CAN win. But a lot of their strategy seem like Hail Mary plays. Especially the anti-trans stuff. It seems like they're trying to rile up the base rather than entice swing voters, which isn't exactly where you want to be with less than a week to go.
We don't really have much gender data, but what little we have I would say is a little behind 2020. But it seems extremely likely that Republican votes (which tend to be more male) are shifting to early this cycle after being openly hostile to early voting in 2020. And that's even before getting into the confounding issue of race (more white women voting isn't necessarily good for Harris).
So, as everyone keeps saying: You can't tell anything from early voting patterns. I know we're all desperate for news, but it just isn't there.
See this is what I’d like sources in because everything else I’m seeing says the opposite
Ev huge on the gender gap, right wing influencers crying about it etc
But I worry about context
Pollsters have a limited set of tools to draw pictures about the broader electorate, but the campaigns themselves are vastly more sophisticated operations. They will have breakdowns by county, demographics, and propensity. Nearly all well financed campaigns have their own voter files with probability rankings per voter. So while pollsters can't really say how things are going, the campaigns will know how many of their unreliable voters have turned out and where the outstanding vote for them is. That the Harris campaign appears confident while the Trump surrogates are out there begging men to vote tells you roughly who is doing better with their unreliable voting demographic. That doesn't project a win or anything, but it does give insight into how both campaigns view the election at this point. The problem still remains that enough election day vote is outstanding and if those low propensity voters show up it could flip critical states.
+8
TTODewbackPuts the drawl in ya'llI think I'm in HellRegistered Userregular
Hakeem Jeffries is supposed to be stopping in Montgomery to support Figures for the District 2 race.
All the junk mail ads against Figures have been hilariously bad. Since he hasn't been in congress before they've just been attributing "stuff they don't like" that other people have done to him instead.
According to the Alabama GOP he has been responsible for the actions of the following people:
Barack Obama, Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Merrick Garland, Robert Bentley (former Republican governor of Alabama), and Kay Ivey (current Republican governor of Alabama)
(Could be more people, I got tired of looking at the junk)
If we are talking which campaign is favored now, probably the one that doesn't have people leaking that their internals are awful:
Republican strategist Margaret Hoover said Republicans have told her that campaign aides for former President Donald Trump have “concern” over internal polling.
Trump is locked in a tight race with Vice President Kamala Harris, as polls show the two virtually tied in several key swing states. On Wednesday’s edition of The Source on CNN, host Kaitlan Collins asked the veteran of two Republican presidential campaigns what data she would be paying attention to.
"I think if you’re the Trump campaign, you’re not looking at CNN’s numbers. You’re looking at your own internal, and I honestly think, I think their internals are actually giving them pause because I think they’re seeing even more– look, they do have a lot of resources for polling more than public media companies have. And they’re probably seeing the same things that you guys are talking about, which is that there’s real groundswell in the early vote. There’s real enthusiasm, which is hard to measure.
I have heard from Republicans that there is concern at the Trump campaign amongst the operatives that actually really do know the political wherewithal, the turnout and enthusiasm numbers aren’t where they need to be."
Have to play for keeps anyways, but things are looking grim over there.
If men stay at home, Kamala is president. It’s that simple.
If you want a vision of the future if you don't vote, imagine Kamala's voice cackling, forever.
Men need to GO VOTE NOW.
lol. LOL. lmao.
Yeah, this is what I based my predictions on how 2020 and 2022 would go on. If they're complaining about the election being rigged, they're probably going to lose. I don't think I've seen as much of that this time, which seems like they think they CAN win. But a lot of their strategy seem like Hail Mary plays. Especially the anti-trans stuff. It seems like they're trying to rile up the base rather than entice swing voters, which isn't exactly where you want to be with less than a week to go.
There’s no downside to the Republicans calling foul. If they win, they’re just that awesome, if they lose then they’ve already laid the groundwork for post-election shenanigans.
Shut up, Mr. Burton! You were not brought upon this world to get it!
One stark thing about this election is to win Dems need to be 100% on message all the time, perform flawlessly all the time and the GOP has a candidate throwing nazi rallies, campaign sloganed garbage trucks and is just derping around in states that can't possibly matter to them and it's a dead heat.
To keep myself sane over the last week, I've been engaging in my miniature painting hobby, and would like to present to you the subtle political commentary I've assembled from the last 4 models I've painted.
Posts
So you're saying the Democratic party is one big messed up fambly?
Honestly this explains so much.
Also when do we get to the point we're just strapping rocket engines onto random objects?
Or did we pass that point already?
@GiantGeek2020
The easiest thing to do is to just head to Mobilize.US it's a sort of clearinghouse of campaign and non-profit events. It won't have everything going on but it'll have a lot and there should be a lot of "Final Stretch Canvass" options.
And thanks for getting out there!
Thanks I don't want to be loaded into a trailer and find out I'm working for Musk.
Have you seen the stock market? 🚀 🚀 🚀
I am not sure if a campaigned branded garbage truck has ever been attempted before. But a garbage man in his garbage truck does seem on brand.
Then the marathon of election lawsuits begins. I’m honestly kind of tired already but will get the adrenaline rush to do my tiny part of the legal battle. My family and friends are the best, though, and have already stocked my favorite food to get me through (plus we’re making a lot of homemade ice cream ahead of time).
We got this!
On that note, I keep seeing encouraging gender gap stuff in EV. But does anyone know if there is typically a gender gap in EV? Is this years bigger or smaller?
Celebrating 55-44 seems foolish if it’s normally 56-42
The Jordanians say it will reach the US destination in 48 hrs.
I'm not so sure. But I have a tracking number
Bidens (made up) gaffe only lasted a few minutes outside of fox
Honestly I am not sure we know the last few election cycles have been anything but normal. GOP used to have massive early voting advantage because it was mostly old people then that started to switch then covid happened then the whole roe v wade thing. I am not sure anybody has a good feel of what is "normal" and what is "good" at this point. Just go and vote and get others to vote it is the most and least we can do.
His ardent Puerto Rican supporters disagree.
Yeah, Biden seemingly didn’t the traction people feared and I’ve barely heard anything about Trump getting to drive his big boy garbage truck.
It varies by state. Early voting does change every cycle somewhat. Compared to 2020 it's about a point or two more F than normal. The problem is that the M/F divide is the largest it's been in possibly a century. So if the electorate is normally 52F/48M that's going to have some pretty swingy effects that you normally wouldn't see.
They love him. He loves them. He's done so much for them.
There were two stories about it "above the fold" so to speak on CNN all day yesterday. Made A1 of today's NYT. Real voters don't care, but real voters don't care about lots of things until the news signals to them that it's important.
Don't threaten me with a good time.
Fixed that for you.
No, we don't actually know how tight it is, because polling is garbage. It's basically just vibes with numbers.
Unless you mean he should be in prison right now. Then yes.
Yeah, the biggest problem is that early voting composition varies wildly year to year (within states) and between states, with little predictive power of the overall electorate. If I remember correctly, 95% of early voters would have voted anyway, so it’s almost entirely shifting around when people vote, not if they vote.
That said, even a 1% uptick in female voters to male voters would make things a blowout for Harris. That’s how gender polarized things are. So strong turnout among women during midterms since 2016 (with possible acceleration over time) could be a decisive factor in Harris over performing polling.
So, as everyone keeps saying: You can't tell anything from early voting patterns. I know we're all desperate for news, but it just isn't there.
Yeah I was going to say, I'm feeling uncomfortable with maligning sanitation workers. They do an important physical job which serves the community.
If this era has proved anything, it's that if you just say what you're going to do all the time and double down people just stop reporting on it because it's not secret.
Ev huge on the gender gap, right wing influencers crying about it etc
But I worry about context
IMO it's more a matter of follow the money. The Owners have their agenda (and their whole hand on the scale), as we've seen when their employees try to go against it.
Like this would just be a campaign speech nowadays
Yeah, this is what I based my predictions on how 2020 and 2022 would go on. If they're complaining about the election being rigged, they're probably going to lose. I don't think I've seen as much of that this time, which seems like they think they CAN win. But a lot of their strategy seem like Hail Mary plays. Especially the anti-trans stuff. It seems like they're trying to rile up the base rather than entice swing voters, which isn't exactly where you want to be with less than a week to go.
Steam: pazython
2020 votes (in thousands)
Women = 82,154
Men = 72,474
Total* = 154,628
That comes out to women making up 53.13% and men making up 46.87% of the vote, with a 6.26% difference.
*This is adding the above two numbers, and not the total votes, which was almost 4 million more than this number according to USA Today.
When the 158,430 number into account, the percentage break down is: women 51.86%, men 45.75%, with a 6.11% difference.
Pollsters have a limited set of tools to draw pictures about the broader electorate, but the campaigns themselves are vastly more sophisticated operations. They will have breakdowns by county, demographics, and propensity. Nearly all well financed campaigns have their own voter files with probability rankings per voter. So while pollsters can't really say how things are going, the campaigns will know how many of their unreliable voters have turned out and where the outstanding vote for them is. That the Harris campaign appears confident while the Trump surrogates are out there begging men to vote tells you roughly who is doing better with their unreliable voting demographic. That doesn't project a win or anything, but it does give insight into how both campaigns view the election at this point. The problem still remains that enough election day vote is outstanding and if those low propensity voters show up it could flip critical states.
All the junk mail ads against Figures have been hilariously bad. Since he hasn't been in congress before they've just been attributing "stuff they don't like" that other people have done to him instead.
According to the Alabama GOP he has been responsible for the actions of the following people:
Barack Obama, Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Merrick Garland, Robert Bentley (former Republican governor of Alabama), and Kay Ivey (current Republican governor of Alabama)
(Could be more people, I got tired of looking at the junk)
There’s no downside to the Republicans calling foul. If they win, they’re just that awesome, if they lose then they’ve already laid the groundwork for post-election shenanigans.
To keep myself sane over the last week, I've been engaging in my miniature painting hobby, and would like to present to you the subtle political commentary I've assembled from the last 4 models I've painted.